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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Recoil imaging for dark matter, neutrinos, and physics beyond the Standard Model

Recoil imaging entails the detection of spatially resolved ionization tracks generated by particle interactions. This is a highly sought-after capability in many classes of detector, with broad applications across particle and astroparticle physics. However, at low energies, where ionization signatures are small in size, recoil imaging only seems to be a practical goal for micro-pattern gas detectors. This white paper outlines the physics case for recoil imaging, and puts forward a decadal plan to advance towards the directional detection of low-energy recoils with sensitivity and resolution close to fundamental performance limits. The science case covered includes: the discovery of dark matter into the neutrino fog, directional detection of sub-MeV solar neutrinos, the precision study of coherent-elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering, the detection of solar axions, the measurement of the Migdal effect, X-ray polarimetry, and several other applied physics goals. We also outline the R&D programs necessary to test concepts that are crucial to advance detector performance towards their fundamental limit: single primary electron sensitivity with full 3D spatial resolution at the $\sim$100 micron-scale. These advancements include: the use of negative ion drift, electron counting with high-definition electronic readout, time projection chambers with optical readout, and the possibility for nuclear recoil tracking in high-density gases such as argon. We also discuss the readout and electronics systems needed to scale-up such detectors to the ton-scale and beyond.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Achieving a Net-Zero Future: The Role of Nuclear Energy

Governments and private industry around the world have established aggressive goals to achieve net-zero emissions for the power, industrial, and transportation sectors by 2050. These aggressive goals demand immediate action if we are to be successful, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Programs within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) are addressing these holistic solutions. Traditionally, electricity generation and management are considered independently from meeting energy demands for industry and transportation. As we seek to eliminate emissions across all energy use sectors we need to reassess how energy demands are met. When we consider overall energy use, only one-third is in the form of electricity. Additional energy demands are in the form of heat or steam for industrial processes, in addition to direct fuel use for transportation. These sectors are much harder to abate, and electrification may not be the best option. Reducing environmental emissions at an affordable cost, while maintaining grid reliability and resilience, will require us to leverage all of the clean energy resources available. The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) program on Integrated Energy Systems (IES) is led by researchers at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and work is conducted in partnership with an array of other DOE laboratories, industry, and academia. The primary focus of IES research is to assess the technical and economic potential of nuclear-driven IES to enhance the flexibility and utilization of nuclear reactors working alongside renewable generators to meet an array of energy demands—thereby maximizing the utilization of clean energy resources across all energy sectors. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and various chemicals. The DOE-NE program additionally partners with the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office under the DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to jointly fund the development of analysis tools, technologies, and nuclear-integrated hydrogen demonstration projects. This presentation will highlight the wide array of R&D being conducted across multiple DOE-funded programs to develop and deploy nuclear-based IES that will be key to achieving our net-zero goals. By working with key collaborators in the nuclear industry, analytical studies are now becoming a reality in demonstration projects.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Methods for Computing Physically Realistic Estimates of Electric Water Heater Demand Response Resource Suitable for Bulk Power System Planning Models

Demand response is commonly called on to reduce load during system peak times or to respond to contingency events. In future power systems with higher shares of wind and solar generation (which we describe together as variable generation [VG]), demand response could have more opportunities to provide energy shifting or operating reserve services. This report evaluates the ability of residential electric water heaters, both electric resistance water heaters (ERWHs) and heat pump water heaters (HPWHs), to provide such services starting from detailed whole-building energy models that realistically represent New England single family home stock. We use a parsimonious surrogate model to represent operational flexibility in a form suitable for linear and mixed integer programming. This enables relatively fast determination of aggregate contingency reserve resource, price-taking energy shifting outcomes, and in some cases the determination of aggregate models at the megawatt (MW) scale that can be directly included in large-scale grid models. After selecting modeling methods and parameters through various computational experiments, we find interquartile ranges of contingency reserve resource in ISO-NE for about 603,400 ERWHs of 45 MW - 69 MW for Claim10 (50 minute responses provided with 10 minutes of advanced notification) and 65 MW - 102 MW for Claim30 (30 minute responses provided with 30 minutes of advanced notification), and for about 619,000 HPWHs of 48 MW - 88 MW for Claim10 and 52 MW - 90 MW for Claim30. The overall reserve resource is up to 32% of total load for ERWHs providing Claim10 service, 47% for ERWHs providing Claim30 service, 93% for HPWHs providing Claim10 service, and 97% for HPWHs providing Claim30 service. More work is required to determine if HPWHs are inherently more suitable than ERWHs for providing contingency reserve or if these results reflect idiosyncrasies of the single family home stock model used in this study. The value of this contingency resource in a Near-term VG model of ISO-NE is $\$ 0.40$ to $\$1.20$ per water heater-year, and significantly larger, $\$ 3.80$ to $\$ 5.30$ per water heater-year in a Mid-term VG model of ISONE. Aggregating surrogate models to the MW-scale for energy shifting service is more challenging than for contingency service and we only present such results for ERWHs, because we were unable to determine satisfactory ways to deal with HPWHs' time-varying and path dependent operational characteristics. Individual surrogate models suitable for evaluating the energy shifting resource from both ERWHs and HPWHs are created, however, and dispatched against day-ahead prices from the Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG models of ISO-NE. The individual surrogate models are able to access and potentially shift all 640 GWh of HPWH load and 1,547 GWh of ERWH load we modeled in two different single family home stock models. In contrast, the most effective model of aggregate ERWH shifting resource we created only captured 34.7% of the total ERWH load. Energy shifting affected by price-taking dispatch against modeled day-ahead energy prices produces per water heater year profits of $\$19.44$ - $\$22.93$ for individual HPWHs, $\$39.11$ - $\$40.54$ for individual ERWHs, and up to $\$4.00$ - $\$4.24$ for aggregated ERWHs, with the variations mainly due to grid conditions (more or less VG). When the supply-side response to these changes is accounted for, the per water heater year production cost savings for ISO-NE are $\$7.50$ to $\$17.70$ for the most effective set of endogenously dispatched aggregate ERWHs, $\$15.60$ to $\$15.70$ for individual ERWHs dispatched against the DA prices, and $\$10.70$ to $\$11.20$ for individual HPWHs dispatched against DA prices. Those ranges primarily represent the difference between Near-Term VG and Mid-Term VG grid conditions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO 2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO 2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.

Ferris, Michael C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Progress in the Development of the Nb 3 Sn MQXFB Quadrupole for the HiLumi Upgrade of the LHC

The high-luminosity upgrade of the Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) requires new high field and large-aperture quadrupole magnets for the low-beta inner triplets (MQXF). With a nominal operating gradient of 132.2 T/m in a 150 mm aperture and a conductor peak field of 11.3 T, the new quadrupole magnets are based on Nb 3 Sn superconducting technology. After a series of short models constructed in close collaboration by LARP (LHC Accelerator Research Program) and CERN, the development program is entering in the series production phase with CERN on one side and the US Accelerator Upgrade Project (US-AUP) on the other side assembling and testing full-length magnets. This paper describes the status of the development activities at CERN, in particular on the cold powering test of the first MQFXB prototype and on the construction of the second full scale prototype. Critical operations such as reaction heat treatment, coil impregnation and magnet assembly are discussed. Finally, the plan towards the series production is described.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Impact of Increased Requirements for Verification Measurements of Category III and IV Receipts

As part of the regular nuclear material accounting and control process, sites that have accountable nuclear material regularly perform measurements of the material in their possession. The expectation for the type of measurements and their frequency is set out in Department of Energy (DOE) Order 474.2, and further detailed in each site’s respective material control and accountability (MC&A) plan and associated controlling documents. The measurements of interest in this report are those performed on external (between DOE sites) transfer receipts of Category III or IV accountable materials. In 2020, a revision of DOE Order 474.2 was proposed that would significantly increase the requirement that measurements be performed upon receipt of material, and further, that those measurements be quantitative verification (rather than qualitative confirmatory) measurements. A survey was performed of DOE sites to discuss the impact on their MC&A measurements program if more rigorous verification measurements requirements for Category III and IV receipts were implemented. An assessment of nondestructive assay (NDA) measurement instruments to meet those needs was also performed. Across the board, sites indicated that personnel and budget would cause the largest impact. Sites which are qualified as Category I/II indicated a reduced impact as these sites already have the measurement capabilities and some personnel but would require the acquisition of additional measurement systems. Category III/IV sites indicated a much larger impact as these sites generally have smaller MC&A programs. A few smaller sites stated a measurement program would need to be created to handle the demand. Calorimetry, quantitative gamma spectroscopy and neutron coincidence counting systems were identified as common systems that could meet the verification measurement requirements. The other, and perhaps larger issue is the need for calibration standards for the calorimetry and neutron coincidence counting systems. It is proposed that a comparative study be performed for ISOCS and ISOTOPICS, qualification of a COTS calorimetry system be performed, and development of an AWCC system that uses a neutron generator.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Be 2 C synthesis, properties, and ion-beam irradiation damage characterization

This technical report is in submission of completion of the Level 2 milestone number M2AT 23OR1101022, titled “Be 2 C synthesis, properties, and ion-beam irradiation damage characterization,” for the AT-23OR110102 “Beryllium Carbide as moderator for MSRs—ORNL” WBS number 2.04.11.01 within the larger Advanced Reactor Technologies program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This effort is an initial study of the viability of Be 2 C as a future neutron moderator for molten salt reactors and other high-temperature reactors. The research was awarded funding in September 2022, and this Level 2 milestone presents the work that completed by the end of July 2023. This work is a collaboration between Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Michigan. This report discusses the status of this effort and planned work before the final reporting.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Complete Degradation of Be 2 C at Conditions Expected in Molten Salt Environments

This technical report is in submission of completion of the Level 3 milestone number M3AT24OR1101032, titled “Complete Degradation of Be 2 C at conditions expected in molten salt environments,” for the AT-24OR110103 “Beryllium Carbide as moderator for MSRs—ORNL” WBS number 2.04.11.01 within the larger Advanced Reactor Technologies program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This effort is an initial study of the viability of Be 2 C as a future neutron moderator for molten salt reactors and other high-temperature reactors. The research was awarded funding in September 2022, and this Level 2 milestone presents the work that completed by the end of July 2023. This work is a collaboration between Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Michigan. This report discusses the status of this effort and planned work before the final reporting.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reported Energy and Cost Savings from the DOE ESPC IDIQ Program: FY 2020

The objective of this work was to determine the realization rate of energy and cost savings from the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) program based on information reported by the energy services companies (ESCOs) that are carrying out ESPC projects at federal facilities. In formation was extracted from 195 measurement and verification (M&V) reports to determine reported, estimated, and guaranteed cost savings and reported and estimated energy savings for the previous contract year.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Certified Green Building Materials: Policy Impact Assessment

Chinese building construction is rapidly expanding, making it critical to focus on energy efficiency to curb the increase of energy consumption and emissions over a building’s lifetime. A key mechanism to do so is through building material certification systems and programs. These establish how building materials will perform and can be used to promote energy and resource efficiency, which help create a more sustainable and healthy building industry. This report begins by identifying characteristics of a strong certification system and ways to improve existing systems. To curb building energy demand, the Chinese government began developing a building material certification program to encourage energy and resource efficiency in the building sector. A timeline is provided of their program’s development and provides analysis. China’s building material database is highlighted and analyzed for their significance and opportunities for improvement. The report then continues to analyze the importance of policies such as procurement programs, and the Chinese government is developing their procurement programs for certified green building materials. To understand the potential large-scale impacts of green building material certifications, we conducted an analysis of the environmental and market impact of a nationwide green building procurement policy for all new residential and commercial construction.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing the Theory of Nuclear Data Evaluations [Slides]

This presentation covers a few key topics in relation to advancing the theory of nuclear data evaluations. First it targets and highlights the NCSP mission and vision along with the five-year plan. This lecture focuses upon the uncertainty quantification and SAMMY modernization. This presentation covers theory, and a framework is provided. The presentation concludes with goals, outlooks, and accomplishments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Clean Energy Deployment Baseline for the Energy Community and Low-Income Tax Credit Bonuses [Slides]

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 introduced, for the first time, place-based federal tax incentives for projects sited in “Energy Communities,” potentially changing the economic calculus of where projects are best sited. Storage projects can qualify for a 10-percentage-point bonus to the Investment Tax Credit (e.g., from 30% to 40%), while wind and solar projects may qualify for either the ITC bonus or a 10% bonus to the Production Tax Credit (e.g., from $\$27.5$ to $\$30.25$/MWh). Energy Communities are areas with historical ties to fossil fuel industries and above average unemployment levels (FFEU), with closed coal mines or power plants, or contaminated properties. They seek to identify locations across the US that could especially benefit from economic revitalization. This report explores how the new federal tax credit incentives are impacting clean energy deployment patterns and establishes historical baselines against which future changes can be compared. We include a few case studies of clean energy projects going specifically to areas that were recently impacted by coal power plant closures to provide concrete examples of investments in Energy Communities. However, this publication does not assess how much of the incentive benefits pass from clean energy developers to hosting communities, nor does it offer a comprehensive view of the economic effects of clean energy deployment on Energy Communities. Key highlights include: - As clean energy projects take multiple years to conceptualize and develop, it is likely too early to see shifts towards Energy Community locations either among newly built projects or those that entered interconnection queues in 2023. - Approximately 35% of onshore wind, 50% of solar, and 60% of storage capacity built in 2023 and the first half of 2024 are located in Energy Communities, making them likely eligible for bonus incentives. While these bonus incentives were not available to projects coming online before 2023, we used 2023 Energy Community definitions to classify whether past projects were built in what is now considered an Energy Community. The deployment levels for 2023-2024 are similar to recent years (2020-2022) for solar and storage but slightly lower for wind. - Clean energy capacity has surged in the interconnection queues over the last few years, with about 45-50% of both recently proposed and total queued capacity being located in Energy Communities. While the amount of capacity in Energy Communities has also grown, its relative share is either stable (solar and storage) or slightly lower (wind) among projects that entered the queue in 2023. - Clean energy projects can be built at lower costs in Energy Communities. The levelized cost of energy after incentives was on average $\$9$/MWh (24%) lower for solar projects and $\$2$/MWh (6%) lower for wind projects built in 2023, relative to projects not located in Energy Communities. Wholesale electricity values at Energy Community locations relative to the rest of the market vary by region. The average value was often higher for wind projects (-$\$3$ to $\$11$/MWh) but lower for solar projects (-$\$6$ to 0/MWh). - Distributed solar that is owned by commercial entities is eligible for the Energy Community bonus and also, potentially, a Low-Income Community bonus. Residential solar installations in qualifying Energy Communities that are third-party owned represent about 10% of the total residential market. Larger commercial and industrial solar installations in Energy Communities make up 17% of the total market in 2023. Nearly 2 GW of distributed solar was built in areas qualifying as Low-Income Communities in 2023, exceeding the available annual program cap of 700 MW. Continued tracking of these trends will be important for system planners, investors, and local communities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

PELICAN Design, Test Planning, and Commissioning Results

To support design efforts for the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) core assemblies, an experimental facility has been designed and constructed at Argonne National Laboratory to match the hydraulic flow conditions within the VTR’s primary heat transport system (PHTS). This facility, the Pressure drop Experimental Loop for Investigations of Core Assemblies in advanced Nuclear reactors, PELICAN, provides the ability to measure pressure drop across a full-scale fuel assembly containing prototypic axial reflectors, fuel, and plena components. The PELICAN facility was designed and built to offer maximum flexibility, allowing testing from short sub-sections all the way to the full-length core fuel assemblies. The report presents the high-level program objectives, a summary of the facility design, instrumentation, and control systems, and the testing procedure. The outcomes from facility characterization efforts and first test matrix results are then presented and then, finally, the conclusion contains a summary of the future work to be performed. This test facility was designed to match the hydraulic conditions of the flowing sodium in the VTR using water as a surrogate fluid. To do so, the water is elevated to a temperature of 110°C where its viscosity matches that of sodium, and with a 50-HP centrifugal pump, is capable of generating full scale flow rates to achieve prototypic Reynolds and Euler number flow conditions. To prevent boiling, the system is maintained at elevated pressure of at least 2.7-3.0 bar (40-44 psig). A set of 15 tests have been used to perform checkout activities in order to commission the device, survey the capabilities of PELICAN, and generate experimental data at isothermal conditions and over a range of flow rates up to 44 kg/s (700 GPM) to produce datasets used in the verification and validation of VTR design and modeling efforts. Initial testing focused on facility characterization, which assessed the operational capabilities of various control systems. The thermal control system was qualified, including the thermal response of the loop to the heat added by self- and auxiliary heaters, the chiller and heat exchanger systems for removing excess heat, and their coupled ability to maintain steady-state isothermal conditions as desired. Additionally, the pressure control system was verified to ensure necessary operating environments that promote pump health and prevent boiling of loop inventory at high temperatures could be met. With these systems in place, the first set of matrix tests have been carried out using orifice plates with inner diameters of 2.25-inches and 2.5-inches. Orifice plate flow behavior is well covered in scientific literature, and the results find good agreement with the measured pressure drop vs flow rate and those of theoretical predictions. This initial testing not only helps to validate the experiment, but it also produces a high quality data set for a geometry that is easily reproducible for simulations. Finally, the report is concluded with a discussion of the work to come and provides a snapshot of the test articles in the experimental pipeline whose designs are being inspired by the current designs from the VTR.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

National Renewable Energy Laboratory Wildland Fire Management Plan (August 2022-August 2025): February-August 2022

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is located in a moderate wildfire risk region. The region has a history of damaging wildland fire activity and is also susceptible to changing environmental conditions (drought, elevated temperatures) that may lead to an increase in wildfire frequency and consequence over time. An integrated, site-wide wildland fire management plan is required by the Department of Energy and is to be consistent with the Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy. The NREL Wildland Fire Management Plan (WFMP) provides an integrated approach to reducing risk to wildland fire at NREL. The goals of the WFMP are to protect human health and safety, protect NREL facilities and research, enhance community protection, diminish risk and consequences of wildland fires, and maintain the health of the ecosystem. The WFMP accomplishes these goals through the use of tools such as fire behavior modeling, fire growth modeling, a structure ignition risk assessment, and through the application of robust fire prevention, emergency management, and environmental programs. The NREL WFMP was developed in a collaborative manner with input from regional stakeholders including cities, counties, local fire departments, and other governmental agencies. The WFMP provides for recommendations to reduce overall wildland fire risk to life safety and property at NREL.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Completion document for MRT 8824 - Upgrade NIF’s gaseous radiochemistry diagnostics (RAGS) to support weapons science

This milestone highlights the successful upgrade and deployment of the Radiochemical Analysis of Gaseous Samples (RAGS) system, which delivers high-quality measurements (<20% uncertainty) of activated gaseous species from NIF implosions. These measurements are critical for supporting Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) relevant platforms, including LANL’s Double Shell and LLNL’s Pushered Single Shell campaigns. The RAGS diagnostic technique enables analysis of short-range mixing in implosions using high-Z shells, which are otherwise inaccessible to conventional x-ray diagnostic methods. By facilitating the investigation of high-Z material mixing into fusion burn, this system provides essential data for quantifying and interpreting results in high-energy density (HED) experiments. This report details the physics motivation, diagnostic fundamentals, planned and enacted upgrade work, and the quantification of uncertainty for the upgraded system.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

CCAT-prime Collaboration: Science Goals and Forecasts with Prime-Cam on the Fred Young Submillimeter Telescope

Abstract We present a detailed overview of the science goals and predictions for the Prime-Cam direct-detection camera–spectrometer being constructed by the CCAT-prime collaboration for dedicated use on the Fred Young Submillimeter Telescope (FYST). The FYST is a wide-field, 6 m aperture submillimeter telescope being built (first light in late 2023) by an international consortium of institutions led by Cornell University and sited at more than 5600 m on Cerro Chajnantor in northern Chile. Prime-Cam is one of two instruments planned for FYST and will provide unprecedented spectroscopic and broadband measurement capabilities to address important astrophysical questions ranging from Big Bang cosmology through reionization and the formation of the first galaxies to star formation within our own Milky Way. Prime-Cam on the FYST will have a mapping speed that is over 10 times greater than existing and near-term facilities for high-redshift science and broadband polarimetric imaging at frequencies above 300 GHz. We describe details of the science program enabled by this system and our preliminary survey strategies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Snowmass Neutrino Frontier: Neutrino Interaction Cross Sections (NF06) Topical Group Report

A thorough understanding of neutrino cross sections in a wide range of energies is crucial for the successful execution of the entire neutrino physics program. In order to extract neutrino properties, long-baseline experiments need an accurate determination of neutrino cross sections within their detector(s). Since very few of the needed neutrino cross sections across the energy spectrum are directly measured, we emphasize the need for theoretical input and indirect measurements such as electron scattering, which would complement direct measurements. In this report we briefly summarize the current status of our knowledge of the neutrino cross sections and articulate needs of the experiments, ongoing and planned, at energies ranging from CEvNS and supernova neutrino energies to the DUNE and atmospheric neutrino energies.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗