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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,531 records · Page 85
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NASA NTRS1981

Medium-range, objective predictions of thunderstorm location and severity for aviation

This paper presents a computerized technique for medium-range (12-48h) prediction of both the location and severity of thunderstorms utilizing atmospheric predictions from the National Meteorological Center's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). A regional-scale analysis scheme is first used to examine the spatial and temporal distributions of forecasted variables associated with the structure and dynamics of mesoscale systems over an area of approximately 10 to the 6th sq km. The final prediction of thunderstorm location and severity is based upon an objective combination of these regionally analyzed variables. Medium-range thunderstorm predictions are presented for the late afternoon period of April 10, 1979, the day of the Wichita Falls, Texas tornado. Conventional medium-range thunderstorm forecasts, made from observed data, are presented with the case study to demonstrate the possible application of this objective technique in improving 12-48 h thunderstorm forecasts for aviation.

Wilson, G. S.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Predictability of the tropical atmosphere

An examination of the deterministic predictability for tropics and middle-latitudes separately indicates that the theoretical upper limit of deterministic predictability for low latitudes is shorter than that for middle latitudes. Variability of time averages in low latitudes is mainly determined by the location and intensity of the large-scale Hadley and Walker circulations. Since these are largely influenced by the slowly varying boundary conditions of sea surface temperature and soil moisture, and since synoptic instabilities are not strong enough to change drastically the large scale flow, there is larger potential for predictability of monthly and seasonal means in low latitudes. It is conjectured that for short and medium range deterministic prediction, a prescribed diabatic heating field due to moist convection may be more useful than their explicit calculation from the evolving flow.

Shukla, J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation and diversity improvement

A new model was developed to predict attenuation statistics for a single Earth-satellite or terrestrial propagation path. The model was extended to provide predictions of the joint occurrences of specified or higher attenuation values on two closely spaced Earth-satellite paths. The joint statistics provide the information required to obtain diversity gain or diversity advantage estimates. The new model is meteorologically based. It was tested against available Earth-satellite beacon observations and terrestrial path measurements. The model employs the rain climate region descriptions of the Global rain model. The rms deviation between the predicted and observed attenuation values for the terrestrial path data was 35 percent, a result consistent with the expectations of the Global model when the rain rate distribution for the path is not used in the calculation. Within the United States the rms deviation between measurement and prediction was 36 percent but worldwide it was 79 percent.

Crane, R. K.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A root-mean-square approach for predicting fatigue crack growth under random loading

A method for predicting fatigue crack growth under random loading which employs the concept of Barsom (1976) is presented. In accordance with this method, the loading history for each specimen is analyzed to determine the root-mean-square maximum and minimum stresses, and the predictions are made by assuming the tests have been conducted under constant-amplitude loading at the root-mean-square maximum and minimum levels. The procedure requires a simple computer program and a desk-top computer. For the eleven predictions made, the ratios of the predicted lives to the test lives ranged from 2.13 to 0.82, which is a good result, considering that the normal scatter in the fatigue-crack-growth rates may range from a factor of two to four under identical loading conditions.

Hudson, C. M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Prediction of dominant wave properties ahead of hurricanes

A method is proposed for predicting properties of dominant waves in the forward region of hurricanes where the waves are found to propagate predominantly in the direction of hurricane forward travel. An extended fetch concept is used in which each wave component is exposed to the action of wind over a fetch length that is determined by wave group speed, hurricane forward speed, and location with respect to eye. Maximum extended fetches are found to the right of the eye (with respect to direction of hurricane travel) in the northern hemisphere. The method correctly predicts dominant wave frequencies and significant wave heights. The prediction method utilizes recently developed concepts in wave generation and energy transfer among wave spectral components; the predicted values are compared favorably with observations.

Shemdin, O. H.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A data base approach for prediction of deforestation-induced mass wasting events

A major topic of concern in timber management is determining the impact of clear-cutting on slope stability. Deforestation treatments on steep mountain slopes have often resulted in a high frequency of major mass wasting events. The Geographic Information System (GIS) is a potentially useful tool for predicting the location of mass wasting sites. With a raster-based GIS, digitally encoded maps of slide hazard parameters can be overlayed and modeled to produce new maps depicting high probability slide areas. The present investigation has the objective to examine the raster-based information system as a tool for predicting the location of the clear-cut mountain slopes which are most likely to experience shallow soil debris avalanches. A literature overview is conducted, taking into account vegetation, roads, precipitation, soil type, slope-angle and aspect, and models predicting mass soil movements. Attention is given to a data base approach and aspects of slide prediction.

Logan, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Development and validation of preliminary analytical models for aircraft interior noise prediction

Predictions are made of the transmission of sound into an unpressurized and unstiffened cylinder under random and harmonic excitations, in order to validate the preliminary version of an airplane interior noise prediction model which is based on an analysis of the power flow type. The predictions are compared to experimental results, and statistically significant differences between predictions and measurements are found to be primarily due to input data deficiencies. Because the model requires only the value of a simple integral for determining interior spatial coupling, and resonance frequencies to determine frequency coupling, the known dynamics of the fuselage can be utilized without difficulty.

Pope, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Comparison of simulator fidelity model predictions with in-simulator evaluation data

A full factorial in simulator experiment of a single axis, multiloop, compensatory pitch tracking task is described. The experiment was conducted to provide data to validate extensions to an analytic, closed loop model of a real time digital simulation facility. The results of the experiment encompassing various simulation fidelity factors, such as visual delay, digital integration algorithms, computer iteration rates, control loading bandwidths and proprioceptive cues, and g-seat kinesthetic cues, are compared with predictions obtained from the analytic model incorporating an optimal control model of the human pilot. The in-simulator results demonstrate more sensitivity to the g-seat and to the control loader conditions than were predicted by the model. However, the model predictions are generally upheld, although the predicted magnitudes of the states and of the error terms are sometimes off considerably. Of particular concern is the large sensitivity difference for one control loader condition, as well as the model/in-simulator mismatch in the magnitude of the plant states when the other states match.

Parrish, R. V.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Comparison of measured and predicted flight effects on high-bypass coaxial jet exhaust noise

A semi-empirical model for predicting the noise generated by conventional-velocity profile coaxial jets is compared with full scale flight data and model scale simulated flight data for high bypass nozzles. The prediction model was shown to agree with small scale static data for primary jet velocities from 215 to 795 m/s for a wide range of area, temperature, and velocity ratios between streams. However, there were insufficient model nozzle, simulated flight data available at that time to permit validation of the flight effects prediction. The comparisons presented demonstrate that the prediction method is also valid in flight.

Stone, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

JT150 1/2-scale nozzle jet noise experiment and comparison with prediction

As part of a program to study flight effects on the exhaust noise of a full scale JT15D engine, static half scale model jet noise experiments were conducted. Acoustic data were recorded for microphone angles of 45 deg to 155 deg with jet conditions for the model scale nozzle corresponding closely to those at 55, 73 and 97 percent of corrected rated speed for the full scale engine. These data are useful for determining the relative importance of jet and core noise in the static full scale engine test data and will in turn allow for a proper evaluation of flight effects on the exhaust noise results. The model scale data are also compared with the coaxial jet noise prediction. Above 1000 Hz, the prediction is nominally 0 to 3 dB higher than the data. The arithmetic mean of the differences between the experimental OASPL and the predicted OASPL for all angles for each run ranged from 0 to -3.2 dB. The standard deviation of all the OASPL differences is 2.2 dB. The discrepancies are greatest at low primary jet velocities and appear to be due to inadequacy in the variable jet density exponent incorporated in the prediction procedure.

Groesbeck, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Comparison of measured and predicted flight effects on high-bypass coaxial jet exhaust noise

A recently developed semi-empirical model for predicting the noise generated by conventional-velocity-profile coaxial jets is compared with full-scale flight data and model-scale simulated flight data for high-bypass nozzles. The prediction model has been shown to agree with small-scale static data for primary jet velocities from 215 to 795 m/s for a wide range of area, temperature and velocity ratios between streams. However, there were insufficient model nozzle, simulated flight data available at that time to permit validation of the flight effects prediction. The comparisons presented in this paper demonstrate that the prediction method is also valid in flight.

Stone, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

A basic code for the prediction of transient three-dimensional turbulent flowfields

A primitive pressure-velocity finite difference code has been developed to predict transient three-dimensional turbulent flow. The code is a simplified yet effective prediction procedure for use by persons with little experience in computational fluid dynamics, and into which user-oriented complexities can easily be added. The method is based on the transient two-dimensional Los Alamos SOLA prediction technique for laminar flows. Turbulence is simulated by means of a two-equation turbulence model; species diffusion and buoyancy are also included. Two applications of the code are presented to local destratification near the release structure of a reservoir and to the deflection of a jet entering normally into a uniform cross-flow. Predicted results exhibit good agreement with experimental data, showing that a useful characterization of fully three-dimensional flows is now available.

Busnaina, A. A.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Sound propagation in segmented exhaust ducts - Theoretical predictions and comparison with measurements

Suppressions due to acoustic treatment in the annular exhaust duct of a model fan have been theoretically predicted and compared with measurements. The predictions are based on the modal analysis of sound propagation in a straight annular flow duct with segmented treatment. Measured values of the mode distribution of the fan noise source (fan-stator interaction source only) and the acoustic impedance of the treatment in the duct were used as input to the prediction program. The predicted suppressions (under the assumption of uniform flow in the duct) compared well with the measured in-duct suppression for all test conditions. The measurements were made in an anechoic chamber and the interaction modes generated in the fan spanned a cut-off ratio range from nearly one to seven.

Joshi, M. C.↗
NASA NTRS1983

A comparison of measured and theoretical predictions for STS ascent and entry sonic booms

Sonic boom measurements have been obtained during the flights of STS-1 through 5. During STS-1, 2, and 4, entry sonic boom measurements were obtained and ascent measurements were made on STS-5. The objectives of this measurement program were (1) to define the sonic boom characteristics of the Space Transportation System (STS), (2) provide a realistic assessment of the validity of xisting theoretical prediction techniques, and (3) establish a level of confidence for predicting future STS configuration sonic boom environments. Detail evaluation and reporting of the results of this program are in progress. This paper will address only the significant results, mainly those data obtained during the entry of STS-1 at Edwards Air Force Base (EAFB), and the ascent of STS-5 from Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The theoretical prediction technique employed in this analysis is the so called Thomas Program. This prediction technique is a semi-empirical method that required definition of the near field signatures, detailed trajectory characteristics, and the prevailing meteorological characteristics as an input. This analytical procedure then extrapolates the near field signatures from the flight altitude to an altitude consistent with each measurement location.

Garcia, F., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Orbit determination and prediction study for Dynamic Explorer 2

Definitive orbit determination accuracy and orbit prediction accuracy for the Dynamic Explorer-2 (DE-2) are studied using the trajectory determination system for the period within six weeks of spacecraft reentry. Baseline accuracies using standard orbit determination models and methods are established. A promising general technique for improving the orbit determination accuracy of high drag orbits, estimation of random drag variations at perigee passages, is investigated. This technique improved the fit to the tracking data by a factor of five and improved the solution overlap consistency by a factor of two during a period in which the spacecraft perigee altitude was below 200 kilometers. The results of the DE-2 orbit predictions showed that improvement in short term prediction accuracy reduces to the problem of predicting future drag scale factors: the smoothness of the solar 10.7 centimeter flux density suggests that this may be feasible.

Smith, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Predicting viscoelastic response and delayed failures in general laminated composites

Although graphite fibers behave in an essentially elastic manner, the polymeric matrix of graphite/epoxy composites is a viscoelastic material which exhibits creep and delayed failures. The creep process is quite slow at room temperature, but may be accelerated by higher temperatures, moisture absorption, and other factors. Techniques are being studied to predict long-term behavior of general laminates based on short-term observations of the unidirectional material at elevated temperatures. A preliminary numerical procedure based on lamination theory is developed for predicting creep and delayed failures in laminated composites. A modification of the Findley nonlinear power law is used to model the constitutive behavior of a lamina. An adaptation of the Tsai-Hill failure criterion is used to predict the time-dependent strength of a lamina. Predicted creep and delayed failure results are compared with typical experimental data.

Dillard, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Predictions of Cockpit Simulator Experimental Outcome Using System Models

This study involved predicting the outcome of a cockpit simulator experiment where pilots used cockpit displays of traffic information (CDTI) to establish and maintain in-trail spacing behind a lead aircraft during approach. The experiments were run on the NASA Ames Research Center multicab cockpit simulator facility. Prior to the experiments, a mathematical model of the pilot/aircraft/CDTI flight system was developed which included relative in-trail and vertical dynamics between aircraft in the approach string. This model was used to construct a digital simulation of the string dynamics including response to initial position errors. The model was then used to predict the outcome of the in-trail following cockpit simulator experiments. Outcome included performance and sensitivity to different separation criteria. The experimental results were then used to evaluate the model and its prediction accuracy. Lessons learned in this modeling and prediction study are noted.

Sorensen, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Prediction of broadband noise from large horizontal axis wind turbine generators

A method is presented for predicting the broadband noise spectra of large horizontal axis wind turbine generators. It includes contributions from such noise sources as the inflow turbulence to the rotor, the interactions between the turbulent boundary layers on the blade surfaces with their trailing edges and the wake due to a blunt trailing edge. The method is partly empirical and is based on acoustic measurements of large wind turbines and airfoil models. The predicted frequency spectra are compared with measured data from several machines including the MOD-OA, the MOD-2, the WTS-4 and the U.S. Wind-power Inc. machine. Also included is a broadband noise prediction for the proposed MOD-5B. The significance of the effects of machine size, power output, trailing edge bluntness and distance to the receiver is illustrated. Good agreement is obtained between the predicted and measured far field noise spectra.

Grosveld, F. W.↗