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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

Stellar Neutrino Emission across the Mass–Metallicity Plane

We explore neutrino emission from nonrotating, single-star models across six initial metallicities and 70 initial masses from the zero-age main sequence to the final fate. Overall, across the mass spectrum, we find metal-poor stellar models tend to have denser, hotter, and more massive cores with lower envelope opacities, larger surface luminosities, and larger effective temperatures than their metal-rich counterparts. Across the mass–metallicity plane we identify the sequence (initial CNO → 14 N → 22 Ne → 25 Mg → 26 Al → 26 Mg → 30 P → 30 Si) as making primary contributions to the neutrino luminosity at different phases of evolution. For the low-mass models we find neutrino emission from the nitrogen flash and thermal pulse phases of evolution depend strongly on the initial metallicity. For the high-mass models, neutrino emission at He-core ignition and He-shell burning depends strongly on the initial metallicity. Antineutrino emission during C, Ne, and O burning shows a strong metallicity dependence with 22 Ne(α, n) 25 Mg providing much of the neutron excess available for inverse-β decays. We integrate the stellar tracks over an initial mass function and time to investigate the neutrino emission from a simple stellar population. We find average neutrino emission from simple stellar populations to be 0.5–1.2 MeV electron neutrinos. Lower metallicity stellar populations produce slightly larger neutrino luminosities and average β decay energies. This study can provide targets for neutrino detectors from individual stars and stellar populations. We provide convenient fitting formulae and open access to the photon and neutrino tracks for more sophisticated population synthesis models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

When Do Different Scenarios of Future Electricity Demand Start to Meaningfully Diverge?

Climate and population change are known to influence electricity demand, but what is the impact of uncertainty in climate and population projections on electricity demand in the United States (U.S.) over the next 30 years? This question has important implications for investment decisions in the energy sector, which are typically made using a 15- to 30-year time horizon. Simply put, if future climate and population scenarios do not lead to meteorological conditions and subsequent energy demands that are distinctly different within the first 30 years then, for the purposes of investment decisions, it may not matter which potential pathway we are most likely on. The Integrated, Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project has generated a wide, yet plausible range of 21st century high-resolution climate and population scenarios for the U.S. The IM3 projections span two climate scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) and two population scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 3 and 5). For each of the climate scenarios, we reflect a range of climate model uncertainty by using boundary conditions from a set of climate models that are hotter and colder than the multi-model mean. In total there are eight (2 x 2 x 2) IM3 scenarios. This work explores a basic question: When do future climate and energy outcomes start to meaningfully diverge across the eight scenarios? The analysis is done on both the raw meteorology time-series from each scenario as well as a time-series of projected total electricity demand generated using IM3's Total ELectricity Loads (TELL) model. We also explore the spatial heterogeneity of the divergence signal to identify regions of the country that may be more or less path dependent.

Climate Change↗

Projections of Hourly Meteorology by Balancing Authority Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of historical hourly meteorology and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly meteorology for 54 Balancing Authorities (BAs) in the conterminous United States. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. This dataset is derived from the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations (https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). More details on the TGW approach can be found at: https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/. If you use this dataset please also cite the raw TGW dataset (Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). To go from the TGW data to these BA-level aggregated data we first averaged the raw gridded data by county in the United States. That intermediate data step is also stored in MSD-LIVE (https://doi.org/10.57931/1960548). We then population-weight the county-level hourly data in order to create population-weighted meteorology time series for each BA. Historical populations are from the United States Census Bureau and the evolving future populations are based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 3 and 5. The four climate scenarios crossed with the two SSPs yield eight different future projections for each BA: rcp45cooler_ssp3, rcp45cooler_ssp5, rcp45hotter_ssp3, rcp45hotter_ssp5, rcp85cooler_ssp3, rcp85cooler_ssp5, rcp85hotterssp3, rcp85hotterssp5. For the historical period and each of the eight future scenarios the dataset has hourly estimates of the population-weighted average of five meteorological variables: Temperature, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and wind speed. All times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The code to go from the raw TGW data to county-level and then BA-level projections is available at: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/im3components/tree/main/im3components/wrf_to_tell.

Balancing Authority↗

Projected Urban Morphology of the Los Angeles Area by the Year 2100

This dataset provides projections of urban building morphologies for the Los Angeles urban area at 30-meter spatial resolution. It contains 192 raster files that detail two primary building attributes: building footprint fractions (ranging from 0 to 1) and average building heights (ranging from 0 to 75 meters). The projections account for a wide range of future pathways, covering two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP3 and SSP5), two population scenarios, two developed land intensification scenarios, and four distinct levels of intensification. The dataset was created using dual Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) trained on 2015 land cover and building properties from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD) and Model America datasets. Supporting information on the dataset has been described in the LAUrbanAreaMorphologyProjections2100_README.txt file.

Pandey, Bhartendu↗

A method for phenomenological analysis of ecological data.

The experimental meaning of the phenomenological differential equations for a competing population is reviewed. It is concluded that it is virtually impossible to construct the differential equations precise enough for studying stability. We consider instead a method of phenomenological analysis which can be applied to a set of population curves. We suggest an ecological index calculated from the population curves, which indicates a group property of the entire system. As a function of time, the index is presumably insensitive to Volterra type fluctuations. A marked increase of the index's value however indicates a marked change of the environmental conditions. It is not easy to deduce the group property from the population curves alone, because a change in population is in general due to the superposition of external disturbances and Volterra fluctuations.

Huang, H.-W.↗

The record of impact cratering on the great volcanic shields of the Tharsis region of Mars

The spatial density of impact craters larger than 100 m on the four great volcanic shields in the Tharsis region is analyzed, assuming that each observed crater population represents the total formed since the local surface was last renewed. Previous investigations of this type are reviewed, problems encountered in those studies are discussed, and an attempt is made to overcome these problems by applying explicit criteria for the separation of craters smaller than approximately 1 km in diameter according to their origin and by ignoring larger craters. Relative ages are determined by comparing crater populations at a common diameter, and such comparisons are carried out for six populations on Arsia Mons, one population on Pavonis Mons, several craters on Ascraeus Mons, and two populations on Olympus Mons. The results, presented in terms of 'crater ages', indicate that most dated surfaces on the great shields range in age from 0.5 to 1.2 billion years, that the eruption patterns of the volcanoes are similar to those of the Hawaiian basaltic shields, and that the most frequently renewed surfaces are on the middle-to-lower flanks as well as within the summit calderas. The youngest surfaces are estimated to date from the period between 0.5 billion years ago and the present; the oldest dated surfaces are shown to suggest that the volcanoes had attained essentially their present sizes over 1 billion years ago.

Blasius, K. R.↗

Crater saturation and equilibrium - A Monte Carlo simulation

Conditions of crater saturation and equilibrium have been simulated with a Monte Carlo computer program which utilizes a generating function of the form N = b x D to the -a. The following conclusions have been deduced from the results of the model: (1) saturation and equilibrium for large craters occur at crater densities substantially greater than those observed on the moon, Mars, and Mercury, an indication that the observed populations are essentially production populations, (2) generating functions with a greater than 2 lead to final crater populations with a = 2, (3) generating functions with a between 2 and 1.5 lead to crater populations with the parameter a approaching 1.0, and (4) changes in the slope of crater populations occur gradually and over a wide interval of crater densities and diameters as saturation is approached.

Woronow, A.↗

A general cratering-history model and its implications for the lunar highlands

Through analysis of a large number of Monte Carlo and Markov Chain simulations, a model for determining crater accumulation and crater obliteration histories has been derived. The model generally applies to populations of large craters. It predicts that the following relationships hold for subequilibrium-density crater populations: (1) the more negative the production function's exponent, alpha (N near D super alpha) the lower the crater density at which the population size-frequency distribution will significantly depart from its production function; (2) the more negative the production function's exponent, the less obliteration a crater population will sustain after a set number of impacts. Application of the model to the lunar highlands implies (1) the production function for the large craters is highly structured, resembling the observed size-frequency distribution and not the function N near D to the -2; (2) even the densely cratered highlands have not attained crater saturation or equilibrium. Direct simulations of the highlands' crater population supports the model's implications.

Woronow, A.↗

Some problems of human adaptation and ecology under the aspect of general pathology

The main problems of human adaptation at the level of the body and the population in connection with the features of current morbidity of the population and certain demographic processes are analyzed. The concepts of health and adaptation of the individual and human populations are determined. The importance of the anthropo-ecological approach to the investigation of the adaptation process of human populations is demonstrated. Certain features of the etiopathogenesis of diseases are considered in connection with the population-ecological regularities of human adaptation. The importance of research on general pathology aspects of adaptation and the ecology of man for planning, and organization of public health protection is discussed.

Kaznacheyev, V. P.↗

The fallacy of using NII in analyzing aircraft operations

Three measures of noise annoyance (Noise Impact Index, Level-Weighted Population, and Annoyed Population Number) are compared, regarding their utility in assessing noise reduction schemes for aircraft operations. While NII is intended to measure the average annoyance per person in a community, it is found that the method of averaging can lead to erroneous conclusions, particularly if the population does not have uniform spatial distribution. Level-Weighted Population and Annoyed Population Number are shown to be better indicators of noise annoyance when rating different strategies for noise reduction in a given community.

Melton, R. G.↗

Ferromagnesian chondrules in carbonaceous chondrites

Carbonaceous chondrites (groups CO and CV) contain three types of ferromagnesian chondrules that can be distinguished on the basis of mineralogy and texture. Statistical analysis of the bulk chemical compositions of these chondrule types suggest that two of the three types are genetically related. The chondrules in carbonaceous chondrites can thus be separated into two populations. These populations are also apparently distinct in terms of redox state and oxygen isotopic composition. The more abundant population (I) is clearly different from chondrules in unequilibrated ordinary chondrites, but the minor population (II) is similar to them in many respects. These chondrule populations may have formed by melting of solid, locally homogeneous precursor materials in different regions of the nebula, and were mixed after solidification was complete.

Mcsween, H. Y., Jr.↗

Is Jupiter's ionosphere a significant plasma source for its magnetosphere?

A semikinetic model was used to study the steady state, collisionless, polar wind outflow from the Jovian polar caps. H(+)-escape fluxes and energies were calculated for a range of conditions, including several values of the ambient electron temperature, different hot electron populations, and both with and without the effects of the centrifugal force. The calculations indicate that if hot electron populations exist over the Jovian polar caps, as they do on earth, polar wind escape fluxes of the order of 10 to the 8th per sq cm s are possible. When integrated over the polar cap area, escape fluxes of this order of magnitude imply an ionospheric source strength of 2 x 10 to the 28th ions/s, which is comparable to the present estimate of the total magnetospheric plasma source population. Therefore, the ionosphere may play an important role in populating the Jovian magnetosphere, specifically the hidden, low energy, light ion component of the population.

Nagy, A. F.↗

Bimodal abundances in the energetic particles of solar and interplanetary origin

This letter reports the first results from an examination of the daily-averaged abundances of the elements from H through Fe as well as electrons and isotopes of He in energetic particles observed in interplanetary space by the ISEE 3 spacecraft over an 8.5 yr period. The abundances of heavy elements such as Fe/O show, for the first time, clear evidence of the presence of two distinct populations of particles. Earlier observations could be interpreted as extreme variations within a single population. The population with enhanced Fe/O shows correlated enhancements in He-3/He-4, p/e, and He/H. This population is consistent with material that has been processed to high temperatures in the impulsively heated regions of solar flares. The second population, with more normal abundances, is probably accelerated from ambient material by coronal and interplanetary shocks.

Reames, Donald V.↗

The ridged plains as a possible landing site for the Mars sample return mission

Differences in the shape and density of crater size-frequency distribution curves have been interpreted as indicators of different impactor populations. Within the inner solar system two production populations are seen. The signature of the first is recorded in the heavily cratered regions of the Moon, Mercury, and Mars and displays a multi-sloped distribution curve which cannot be described by a power law function at all crater diameters. The signature of the second population is seen in the lightly cratered lunar and Martian plains, where the size-frequency distribution curve can be approximated by a power law function of -3 differential slope in the 8- to 70-km diameter range. Based on data obtained from the Apollo lunar samples and crater flux estimates, the first population is believed to have been emplaced during the period of heavy bombardment which, at least on the Moon, ended about 3.8 BY ago. The second population has dominated the cratering record since that time and is commonly assumed to be due to comets and asteroids.

Barlow, Nadine G.↗

Anisotropy of shock-accelerated ion distributions in interplanetary space

The discrepancy between theory and observation is discussed with regard to the ability of interplanetary shock waves to accelerate a small percentage of the thermal ion population. The major point of departure rests with the spatial dependence of the energetic particle intensity and anisotropy in the region upstream of interplanetary shocks. It is argued that the discrepancy is due to the presence of solar flare particles forming an additional seed population which alters the upstream boundary condition of the energetic population. The resulting anisotropy of the energetic particle distribution several scale lengths upstream of the shock is proportional to the ratio of the streaming of the shock-accelerated population to the density of the solar flare population. This theory is then compared with the results of observed upstream anisotropy and measured particle intensities and anisotropies.

Smith, Charles W.↗

Long-slit optical spectroscopy of powerful far-infrared galaxies - The nature of the nuclear energy source

Optical spectroscopic data are presented for a sample of 47 powerful far-IR galaxies chosen for IR spectral shape, and for six other IR-bright galaxies. The stellar absorption lines expected from a population of old stars are generally very weak in the nuclei of the galaxies. Very weak Mg I absorption is found in regions well off the nucleus, implying that the visible spectrum is dominated by young stars and not by an AGN. At least one, and probably five, of the galaxies have detectable WR emission features, providing additional evidence for a young stellar population. About 20 percent of the galaxies have strong Balmer absorption lines, indicating the presence of a substantial intermediate-age stellar population. The equivalent width of the H-alpha emission line can be modeled as arising from a mixture of a large young population and an intermediate-age population of stars.

Armus, Lee↗

Stellar content of nearby galaxies. III - The local group spiral galaxy M33

BVRI CCD photometry is presented for stars brighter than V = 21 mag in four fields in the nearby spiral galaxy M33. V vs (B - V) and I vs (V - I) color-magnitude diagrams clearly show both a young stellar population (as indicated by the blue main sequence and red supergiant plumes) as well as an intermediate-age population of asymptotic giant branch stars. Deep photometry in the outer field (where crowding is less severe) reveals a population consistent in color and magnitude with the tip of the first red giant branch. The M33 distance modulus, 24.6 + or - 0.3 mag, derived from this Population II component is consistent with a recent redetermination of the distance modulus found from Population I Cepheid variables. Finally, some evidence is presented for a radial gradient in the average internal reddening for the fields in M33 reported here.

Wilson, Christine D.↗

Ancient fluvial processes in the equatorial highlands of Mars

Martian highland craters typically lack ejecta deposits, have no noticeable rim, and are flat floored. In addition, crater size frequency distribution curves show that highland craters have depleted populations less than 20 km in diameter. A variety of processes have been suggested to explain these observations including deposition of aeolian or volcanic materials up to the crater rim crests, thermal creep, terrain softening, and mass wasting. However, none of these processes adequately explains both the crater morphology and population distribution. In order to explain both the Martian highland crater morphology and population distribution, a fluvial process is proposed which is capable of removing the loose crater rim material. The resulting effect is to decrease the crater diameter, thereby causing the population curves to bendover. The eroded material is redistributed, burying or partially burying smaller diameter craters before complete erosion. This material may also be deposited into local topographic lows, creating the depositional basins observed. A fluvial process explains both sets of observations: crater morphology and crater population distribution curves.

Craddock, Robert A.↗