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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Indoor Radon Measurements from Residential Buildings with Basements in a Community with Potential LLRW Contamination - 19566

The Port Hope Area Initiative (PHAI) represents the Government of Canada's commitment to the cleanup and safe, local, long-term management of historic low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) in two Southern Ontario municipalities-Port Hope and Clarington. The PHAI (see reference for internet address) is based on community-recommended solutions for the cleanup and safe long-term management of approximately 1.7 million cubic meters of LLRW. It is currently one of Canada's largest environmental remediation projects at a cost of over one billion dollars. Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) is implementing the PHAI on behalf of Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, a Federal Crown Corporation. An initial characterization and remediation program in the urban area of Port Hope was conducted from 1976 to 1981. The waste is the result of radium and uranium processing in Port Hope by the former Federal Crown Corporation Eldorado Nuclear Limited between 1933 and 1988. One contaminant of concern in the LLRW is radium-226 (Ra-226) which may lead to elevated indoor levels of radon-222 (Rn-222) indoors. As part of CNL's implementation of the PHAI, Arcadis is conducting the Port Hope Project Property Radiological Survey of approximately 4,800 small-scale sites to identify 1) properties that have not been affected by historic operations and 2) properties that have residual historic low-level radioactive waste impacts requiring remediation either for soils or for interior contamination or both. Over the last six years, a component of the Small Scale Sites (SSS) characterization surveys have measured radon concentrations in essentially all buildings in Port Hope using alpha-track detectors. All properties had subsurface characterization including analytical characterization and lithology following the radon measurement reporting to measure if soil concentrations exceeded the PHAI Cleanup Criteria (PHAI CC) for Ra-226 of 0.29 Bq/g. Buildings with radon gas exceeding a trigger level of 200 becquerels per cubic meter (Bq/m{sup 3}) or those with ventilation systems required investigation of soil concentrations around the perimeter of the building. Ra-226 concentrations above the background level of 0.05 Bq/g due to LLRW sources were forwarded to create remedial action plans (RAPs) to remove the contamination near the building. The SSS surveys provide a substantive data set on the approximately 3,000 properties measured to date with interior Rn-222 gas measurements and descriptions of the physical characteristics of the buildings, the lithology of soils near the buildings and the measurements of Ra-226 concentration in the soils on the property. Consideration of the potential for contribution from non-LLRW Ra-226 from natural sources or coal ash was required on some properties. This paper describes the data and exploratory analysis of the relationship(s) between LLRW and non-LLRW factors that affect the variation in indoor radon concentrations. Historical information on the urban area, the measured Ra-226 concentration and the age of the building were correlated with radon concentrations. A large variety of native soils are found in the complex terrain and the type of native soil was correlated with the radon concentrations. A statistical analysis to address the impact of co-related explanatory variables to model indoor radon concentrations is planned when the SSS activities are complete. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

Water Impacts of High Solar PV Electricity Penetration

This analysis provides a detailed national and regional description of the water-related impacts and constraints of high solar electricity penetration scenarios in the U.S. in 2030 and 2050. A modified version of the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model that incorporates water resource availability and costs as a constraint in each of its 134 Balancing Area (BA) regions was utilized to explore national and regional differences in water use impacts and solar deployment locations under different solar energy cost and water availability scenarios (Macknick et al. 2015). Water resource availability and cost data are from recently completed research at Sandia National Laboratories (Tidwell et al. 2013a). Scenarios analyzed include two business-as-usual solar energy cost cases, one with and one without considering available water resources, and four solar energy cost cases that meet the SunShot cost goals (i.e., $1/watt for utility-scale PV systems), with varying levels of water availability restrictions. This analysis provides insight into the role solar energy technologies have in the broader electricity sector under scenarios of water constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Developing Data-Driven Synthetic Infrastructure Models for Resilience Analysis

Research on infrastructure resilience has produced promising methods to simulate and optimize complex networks to improve performance. However, restrictions on sharing infrastructure models and the steep cost of developing and maintaining infrastructure models presents a roadblock to adoption. To overcome this limitation, this research focuses on methods to create data-driven infrastructure models that will help improve infrastructure resilience and security. The analysis couples incomplete utility data, geospatial data, machine learning, and synthetic network generation methods to rapidly develop and update infrastructure models. The methods are validated using realistic utility models and site-specific data, with a focus on Puerto Rico due to its unique infrastructure challenges and available data. This research highlights promising opportunities for the use of synthetic network generation and machine learning to create infrastructure models when very little data is available. Results demonstrate that hybrid methods, which combine sparse utility data with synthetic models, can enhance model accuracy, and machine learning can predict model attributes using training data from other models. However, the complexity of infrastructure systems means that even minor changes in network connectivity can significantly impact simulation results. Resilience analysis using synthetic infrastructure models shows that while some system behaviors are preserved, the magnitude of disruptions may not be accurately represented, indicating the need for more research and validation before using synthetic models for critical infrastructure investment decisions. The framework outlined in this report represents a significant advance to infrastructure model development and could be applied to additional domains and sites. Future research will continue to streamline and validate methods to help reduce roadblocks to resilience analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Detecting alkali-silica reaction in thick concrete structures using linear array ultrasound

The use of concrete structures in commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) has made its long-term performance crucial for safe operation, especially with license period extensions to sixty years and possibly beyond. Alkali-Silica Reaction (ASR) is a reaction that occurs over time in concrete between alkaline cement paste and reactive, non-crystalline silica (aggregates). In the presence of water, an expansive gel is formed within the aggregates, which results in micro cracks in aggregates and adjacent cement paste. ASR can potentially affect concrete properties and performance characteristics such as compressive strength, modulus of elasticity, flexural stiffness, shear strength, and tensile strength. Currently, no NDE methods have proven effective in identifying ASR before surface cracks form. ASR is usually identified either visibly or by petrographic analysis. While ASR definitely impacts concrete material properties, the performance of concrete structures exhibiting ASR is dependent upon whether or not the concrete is unconfined or confined with reinforcing bars. Confinement by reinforcing bars acts to restrain the expansion of ASR affected concrete similar to pre-stressing, thus improving the performance of a structure. Additionally, there is no direct correlation between the mechanical properties of concrete sample cores and the in-situ properties of the concrete when inside a structure. The University of Tennessee (UTK), along with Oak Ridge National Laboratory and a consortium of universities have developed an accelerated ASR experiment. Three large concrete specimens, representative of NPP infrastructure, were constructed with both embedded and surface instruments. This paper presents preliminary analysis using frequency banded synthetic aperture focusing technique (SAFT).

Ezell, N Dianne↗
DOE OSTI2017

An integrated modelling framework to assess long-term impacts of water management strategies steering soil subsidence in peatlands

Around the world many peatlands are managed unsustainably. Drainage of the peat causes soil subsidence and a range of negative societal impacts. Integrated strategies are required to ensure more sustainable long-term settings, based on impact assessment models that simulate the interrelated dynamics of water management and soil subsidence, and determine the spatial and temporal range of societal impacts. This paper presents an integrated modelling framework that meets these requirements. We used the framework to assess the impacts of a range of water management strategies in Dutch peatlands. Average soil subsidence rates were shown to range from 0.6 to 4.5 mm·y{sup −1}, resulting in marked differences in societal impacts that affect stakeholders unequally. Moreover, the impacts on real estate damage and water system maintenance revealed inverse trends that result in increasingly unbalanced cost-benefit ratios. The generated insights led the regional water authority to change their current water management strategy, preventing unsustainable future developments. We find the results relevant for improving stakeholders' awareness of long-term impacts of management strategies, and making negotiation processes on goals, means, and possible future pathways more transparent. - Highlights: •We developed an integrated modelling framework to support peatland management. •We used the case of Dutch peatlands to illustrate the added value of the framework. •Spatial patterns and temporal trends show how stakeholders are affected unequally. •The results were used to improve water management strategies.

02 PETROLEUM↗
NASA NTRS1990

Impact ice stresses in rotating airfoils

Finite element analysis is used to study the tensile and shear stresses at the interface between impact ice adhering to a rotating airfoil and the metal airfoil surface. A simple rotating beam-ice structure is used to obtain basic understanding of stress distribution in the ice. Calculations show that shear stresses increase linearly with ice thickness and tensile stresses tend to zero for a fully bonded surface. When shear stresses exceed the ultimate strength, adhesive failure occurs and tensile stresses are developed in the unbonded ice, resulting in tensile failure of the impact ice. A second model is used to study the OH-58 tail rotor with a measured ice profile. Ice shedding predictions are compared to the resulting data using a statistical structural analysis.

Scavuzzo, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Local coexistence of VO 2 phases revealed by deep data analysis

We report a synergistic approach of micro-Raman spectroscopic mapping and deep data analysis to study the distribution of crystallographic phases and ferroelastic domains in a defected Al-doped VO 2 microcrystal. Bayesian linear unmixing revealed an uneven distribution of the T phase, which is stabilized by the surface defects and uneven local doping that went undetectable by other classical analysis techniques such as PCA and SIMPLISMA. This work demonstrates the impact of information recovery via statistical analysis and full mapping in spectroscopic studies of vanadium dioxide systems, which is commonly substituted by averaging or single point-probing approaches, both of which suffer from information misinterpretation due to low resolving power.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1992

Large-body impact and extinction in the Phanerozoic

The kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species is used to investigate large-body impact as a cause of species extinction. Current estimates of Phanerozoic impact rates are combined with the kill curve to produce an impact-kill curve, which predicts extinction levels from crater diameter, on the working assumption that impacts are responsible for all "pulsed" extinctions. By definition, pulsed extinction includes the approximately 60% of Phanerozoic extinctions that occurred in short-lived events having extinction rates greater than 5%. The resulting impact-kill curve is credible, thus justifying more thorough testing of the impact-extinction hypothesis. Such testing is possible but requires an exhaustive analysis of radiometric dating of Phanerozoic impact events.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2019

Impact of a Low-Intensity Resource Referral Intervention on Patients’ Knowledge, Beliefs, and Use of Community Resources: Results from the CommunityRx Trial

Background: Connecting patients to community-based resources is now a cornerstone of modern healthcare that supports self-management of health. The mechanisms that connect resource information to behavior change, however, remain poorly understood. Objective: To evaluate the impact of CommunityRx, an automated, low-intensity resource referral intervention, on patients' knowledge, beliefs, and use of community resources. Design: Real-world controlled clinical trial at an urban academic medical center in 2015-2016; participants were assigned by alternating week to receive the CommunityRx intervention or usual care. Surveys were administered at baseline, 1 week, 1 month, and 3 months. Participants: Publicly insured adults, ages 45-74 years. Intervention: CommunityRx generated an automated, personalized list of resources, known as HealtheRx, near each participant's home using condition-specific, evidence-based algorithms. Algorithms used patient demographic and health characteristics documented in the electronic health record to identify relevant resources from a comprehensive, regularly updated database of health-related resources in the study area. Main Measures: Using intent-to-treat analysis, we examined the impact of HealtheRx referrals on (1) knowledge of the most commonly referred resource types, including healthy eating classes, individual counseling, mortgage assistance, smoking cessation, stress management, and weight loss classes or groups, and (2) beliefs about having resources in the community to manage health. Key Results: In a real-world controlled trial of 374 adults, intervention recipients improved knowledge (AOR = 2.15; 95% CI, 1.29-3.58) and beliefs (AOR = 1.68; 95% CI, 1.07-2.64) about common resources in the community to manage health, specifically gaining knowledge about smoking cessation (AOR = 2.76; 95% CI, 1.07-7.12) and weight loss resources (AOR = 2.26; 95% CI 1.05-4.84). Positive changes in both knowledge and beliefs about community resources were associated with higher resource use (P = 0.02). Conclusions: In a middle-age and older population with high morbidity, a low-intensity health IT intervention to deliver resource referrals promoted behavior change by increasing knowledge and positive beliefs about community resources for self-management of health. NIH Trial Registry: NCT02435511

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulated plant-mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine-scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems are controlled by redox conditions in the soil, which are currently underrepresented in Earth system models. Plant-mediated radial oxygen loss (ROL) can increase soil O 2 availability, affect local redox conditions, and cause heterogeneous distribution of redox-sensitive chemical species at the root scale, which would affect CH 4 emissions integrated over larger scales. In this study, we used a subsurface geochemical simulator (PFLOTRAN) to quantify the effects of incorporating either spatially homogeneous ROL or more complex heterogeneous ROL on model predictions of porewater solute concentration depth profiles (dissolved organic carbon, methane, sulfate, sulfide) and column integrated CH 4 fluxes for a tidal coastal wetland. From the heterogeneous ROL simulation, we obtained 18% higher column averaged CH 4 concentration at the rooting zone but 5% lower total CH 4 flux compared to simulations of the homogeneous ROL or without ROL. This difference is because lower CH 4 concentrations occurred in the same rhizosphere volume that was directly connected with plant-mediated transport of CH 4 from the rooting zone to the atmosphere. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the impacts of heterogeneous ROL on model predictions of porewater oxygen and sulfide concentrations will be more important under conditions of higher ROL fluxes or more heterogeneous root distribution (lower root densities). Despite the small impact on predicted CH 4 emissions, the simulated ROL drastically reduced porewater concentrations of sulfide, an effective phytotoxin, indicating that incorporating ROL combined with sulfur cycling into ecosystem models could potentially improve predictions of plant productivity in coastal wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of volcanic eruptions on CMIP6 decadal predictions: a multi-model analysis

Abstract. In recent decades, three major volcanic eruptions of different intensity have occurred (Mount Agung in 1963, El Chichón in 1982 and Mount Pinatubo in 1991), with reported climate impacts on seasonal to decadal timescales that could have been potentially predicted with accurate and timely estimates of the associated stratospheric aerosol loads. The Decadal Climate Prediction Project component C (DCPP-C) includes a protocol to investigate the impact of volcanic aerosols on the climate experienced during the years that followed those eruptions through the use of decadal predictions. The interest of conducting this exercise with climate predictions is that, thanks to the initialisation, they start from the observed climate conditions at the time of the eruptions, which helps to disentangle the climatic changes due to the initial conditions and internal variability from the volcanic forcing. The protocol consists of repeating the retrospective predictions that are initialised just before the last three major volcanic eruptions but without the inclusion of their volcanic forcing, which are then compared with the baseline predictions to disentangle the simulated volcanic effects upon climate. We present the results from six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) decadal prediction systems. These systems show strong agreement in predicting the well-known post-volcanic radiative effects following the three eruptions, which induce a long-lasting cooling in the ocean. Furthermore, the multi-model multi-eruption composite is consistent with previous work reporting an acceleration of the Northern Hemisphere polar vortex and the development of El Niño conditions the first year after the eruption, followed by a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation the subsequent years. Our analysis reveals that all these dynamical responses are both model- and eruption-dependent. A novel aspect of this study is that we also assess whether the volcanic forcing improves the realism of the predictions. Comparing the predicted surface temperature anomalies in the two sets of hindcasts (with and without volcanic forcing) with observations we show that, overall, including the volcanic forcing results in better predictions. The volcanic forcing is found to be particularly relevant for reproducing the observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the North Atlantic Ocean following the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo.

Bilbao, Roberto (ORCID:0000000307294980)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Modular Accident Analysis Program (MAAP) - MELCOR Crosswalk: Phase II Analyzing a Partially Recovered Accident Scenario

Following the conclusion of the first phase of the crosswalk analysis, one of the key unanswered questions was whether or not the deviations found would persist during a partially recovered accident scenario, similar to the one that occurred in TMI - 2. In particular this analysis aims to compare the impact of core degradation morphology on quenching models inherent within the two codes and the coolability of debris during partially recovered accidents. A primary motivation for this study is the development of insights into how uncertainties in core damage progression models impact the ability to assess the potential for recovery of a degraded core. These quench and core recovery models are of the most interest when there is a significant amount of core damage, but intact and degraded fuel still remain in the cor e region or the lower plenum. Accordingly this analysis presents a spectrum of partially recovered accident scenarios by varying both water injection timing and rate to highlight the impact of core degradation phenomena on recovered accident scenarios. This analysis uses the newly released MELCOR 2.2 rev. 966 5 and MAAP5, Version 5.04. These code versions, which incorporate a significant number of modifications that have been driven by analyses and forensic evidence obtained from the Fukushima - Daiichi reactor site.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS2022

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast – Part 1: Analysis of Aerosols, Gases, and Wet Deposition Chemistry

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) and adjoining East Coast of North America are of great importance for atmospheric research and have been extensively studied for several decades. This broad region exhibits complex meteorological features and a wide range of conditions associated with gas and particulate species from many sources regionally and other continents. As Part 1 of a 2‐part paper series, this work characterizes quantities associated with atmospheric chemistry, including gases, aerosols, and wet deposition, by analyzing available satellite observations, ground‐based data, model simulations, and reanalysis products. Part 2 provides insight into the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three‐dimensional cloud structure, properties, and precipitation over the WNAO domain. Key results include spatial and seasonal differences in composition along the North American East Coast and over the WNAO associated with varying sources of smoke and dust and meteorological drivers such as temperature, moisture, and precipitation. Spatial and seasonal variations of tropospheric carbon monoxide and ozone highlight different pathways towards the accumulation of these species in the troposphere. Spatial distributions of speciated aerosol optical depth and vertical profiles of aerosol mass mixing ratios show a clear seasonal cycle highlighting the influence of different sources in addition to the impact of intercontinental transport. Analysis of long‐term climate model simulations of aerosol species and satellite observations of carbon monoxide confirm that there has been a significant decline in recent decades among anthropogenic constituents owing to regulatory activities.

ACTIVATE↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

This study presents the overview of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their energy, land use, and emissions implications. The SSPs are part of a new scenario framework, established by the climate change research community in order to facilitate the integrated analysis of future climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation. The pathways were developed over the last years as a joint community effort and describe plausible major global developments that together would lead in the future to different challenges for mitigation and adaptation to climate change. The SSPs are based on five narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments, including sustainable development, regional rivalry, inequality, fossil-fueled development, and middle-of-the-road development. The long-term demographic and economic projections of the SSPs depict a wide uncertainty range consistent with the scenario literature. A multi-model approach was used for the elaboration of the energy, land-use and the emissions trajectories of SSP-based scenarios. The baseline scenarios lead to global energy consumption of 400–1200 EJ in 2100, and feature vastly different land-use dynamics, ranging from a possible reduction in cropland area up to a massive expansion by more than 700 million hectares by 2100. The associated annual CO 2 emissions of the baseline scenarios range from about 25 GtCO 2 to more than 120 GtCO 2 per year by 2100. With respect to mitigation, we find that associated costs strongly depend on three factors: (1) the policy assumptions, (2) the socio-economic narrative, and (3) the stringency of the target. The carbon price for reaching the target of 2.6 W/m 2 that is consistent with a temperature change limit of 2 °C, differs in our analysis thus by about a factor of three across the SSP marker scenarios. Moreover, many models could not reach this target from the SSPs with high mitigation challenges. While the SSPs were designed to represent different mitigation and adaptation challenges, the resulting narratives and quantifications span a wide range of different futures broadly representative of the current literature. This allows their subsequent use and development in new assessments and research projects. Critical next steps for the community scenario process will, among others, involve regional and sectoral extensions, further elaboration of the adaptation and impacts dimension, as well as employing the SSP scenarios with the new generation of earth system models as part of the 6th climate model intercomparison project (CMIP6).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Structure Damage Simulations Accounting for Inertial Effects and Impact and Optimization of Grid-Stiffened Non-Circular Shells

The goal of this research project is to develop modelling and analysis strategy for the penetration of aluminium plates impacted by titanium impactors. Finite element analysis is used to study the penetration of aluminium plates impacted by titanium impactors in order to study the effect of such uncontained engine debris impacts on aircraft-like skin panels. LS-DYNA3D) is used in the simulations to model the impactor, test fixture frame and target barrier plate. The effects of mesh refinement, contact modeling, and impactor initial velocity and orientation were studied. The research project also includes development of a design tool for optimum design of grid-stiffened non-circular shells or panels subjected to buckling.

Mei, Chuh↗
DOE OSTI2016

Leak Testing with Simulated Waste of Hanford Tank Farm Valves Utilized for Double Valve Isolation - 16108

The existing Hanford Tank Farms Waste Transfer System has several models of ball valves used for double valve isolation (DVI) that have been installed for 10 or more years. The safety function of the safety-significant valves is to limit leakage of waste past the valves in order to decrease the consequences of a fine spray release due to a transfer misroute. While previous leak testing of the valves has been conducted, the testing did not address concerns in the Documented Safety Analysis concerns about the impact on valve operation and service life of the potential abrasive/erosive properties of the tank waste on the valves when cycled. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted DVI tests at their Multi-Phase Transport Evaluation Loop Facility. Testing evaluated the leak rate of safety-significant isolation valves for DVI as a function of simulated operating cycles. PNNL developed a performance-based simulant specifically for this test program. The test environment simulated the abrasive characteristics of the Hanford Tank Farms Waste Transfer System during single-shell tank retrieval and waste feed delivery to the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. The testing consisted of periodically measuring leak rates and maximum operational torques on the DVI valves after prescribed numbers of valve operational cycles (open and close). The test results from the simulant cycle tests provide Washington River Protection Solutions with performance characteristics that can be used to verify compliance with the Documented Safety Analysis limits for valve seat leakage. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Life cycle energy demand and carbon emissions of scalable single-junction and tandem perovskite PV

Perovskite photovoltaics reached record efficiencies in the laboratory and, if sustainably commercialized, they would accelerate a green energy transition. Here, this article presents the development of life-cycle inventory material and energy databases of most promising four single-junction and three tandem scalable perovskite systems with assumptions regarding scalable production validated by industry experts. We conducted comprehensive “ex ante” Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) and Net Energy Analysis, analyzing their cumulative energy demand, global warming potential profiles, energy payback times and energy return on investment (EROI). LCA contribution analysis elucidates the most impactful material and process choices. It shows that solution-based perovskite manufacturing would have lower environmental impact than vapor-based methods, and that roll-to-roll (RtR) printing offers the lowest impact. Among material choices, MoOx/Al has lower impact than Ag, and fluorine-tin-oxide lower than indium-tin-oxide. Furthermore, we compare perovskites with commercial crystalline-silicon and thin-film PV, accounting for the most recent developments in crystalline-Si wafer production and differences in life expectancies and efficiencies. It is shown that perovskite systems produced with RtR manufacturing could reach in only 12 years of life the same EROI as that of single-crystalline-Si PV lasting 30-years. This work lays a foundation for sustainability investigations of perovskite large-scale deployment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Stressors in Mobile Bay

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in Mobile Bay. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the Bay. Theses results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout Mobile Bay. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗