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At least 1,531 records · Page 85
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Global warming intensity of biofuel derived from switchgrass grown on marginal land in Michigan

Energy crops for biofuel production, especially switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), are of interest from a climate change perspective. Here, we use outputs from a crop growth model and life cycle assessment (LCA) to examine the global warming intensity (GWI; g CO 2 MJ –1 ) and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential (Mg CO 2 year –1 ) of biofuel systems based on a spatially explicit analysis of switchgrass grown on marginal land (abandoned former cropland) in Michigan, USA. We find that marginal lands in Michigan can annually produce over 0.57 hm 3 of liquid biofuel derived from nitrogen-fertilized switchgrass, mitigating 1.2–1.5 Tg of CO 2 year –1 . About 96% of these biofuels can meet the Renewable Fuel Standard (60% reduction in lifecycle GHG emissions compared with conventional gasoline; GWI ≤37.2 g CO 2 MJ –1 ). Furthermore, 73%–75% of these biofuels are carbon-negative (GWI less than zero) due to enhanced soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration. However, simulations indicate that SOC levels would fail to increase and even decrease on the 11% of lands where SOC stocks >>200 Mg C ha –1 , leading to carbon intensities greater than gasoline. Results highlight the strong climate mitigation potential of switchgrass grown on marginal lands as well as the needs to avoid carbon rich soils such as histosols and wetlands and to ensure that productivity will be sufficient to provide net mitigation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

farm crops↗
NASA NTRS2021

Developing a Hydrological Monitoring and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting System for South and Southeast Asian River Basins

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Yifan Zhou↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
NASA NTRS1977

The July climate and a comparison of the January and July climates simulated by the GISS general circulation model

Results are presented for a study directed to evaluate the ability of the global general circulation model of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in simulating seasonal differences as related to an experiment simulating the July climatology which parallels the January simulation presented by Somerville et al. (1974). The July and January simulations are compared with each other and with climatological data on seasonal changes, mainly for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere. The comparison shows that the model-generated energy cycle, distribution of winds, temperature, humidity and pressure, dynamical transports, diabatic heating, evaporation, precipitation and cloud cover are all realistic for the Northern Hemisphere troposphere in July. The model's simulation of seasonal differences is generally quite realistic since the systematic quantitative errors do not affect the simulation of relative changes, to first order. Defects that could seriously bias the model's performance in particular climate experiments are identified and discussed.

Stone, P. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vertical Resolution Impacts Explicit Simulation of Deep Convection

Abstract The aggregation of tropical convection greatly influences the mean‐state of the atmosphere, altering humidity distributions, total atmospheric radiative cooling, and cloud amounts. Although studies have demonstrated the sensitivity of convective aggregation to horizontal resolution and domain size, few studies have explored the impact of vertical resolution on convective aggregation. Here, we investigate the impact of vertical resolution on simulations of deep convection and convective aggregation using the System for Atmospheric Modeling convection resolving model. We analyze simulations of tropical radiative‐convective equilibrium with varying vertical levels (32, 64, 128, and 256) across small (100 km), medium (700 km) and large (1,500 km) domains. We demonstrate that relative humidity and cloud fraction decrease with increasing vertical resolution as a result of reduced turbulent mixing. Vertical resolution also influences the occurrence of, onset time, and equilibrium intensity of aggregated convection, and also appears to affect the sensitivity of convective aggregation to domain size. Understanding how simulated convection aggregates, as well as its simulated sensitivity to model formulation, is critical for making and interpreting future predictions of global climate change.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photosynthetic capacity is reduced by warming but unaffected by elevated CO2 in seedlings of five boreal tree species

Abstract Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations fuel global warming, with boreal regions warming at a faster rate than many other areas. Boreal forests are an important component of the global carbon cycle, yet we have little data on photosynthetic responses of boreal trees to elevated CO2 (EC) and warming. We grew seedlings of 5 widespread North American boreal tree species (from Betula, Larix, Picea, and Pinus) under current (410 ppm) or elevated (750 ppm) CO2 and either ambient (+0 °C) or increased (+4 °C or +8 °C) temperature, then measured photosynthetic traits over a range of leaf temperatures. Our results were generally consistent across species: photosynthetic capacity (maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation, Vcmax, and electron transport, Jmax) was unaffected by EC but decreased under +8 °C warming. Accordingly, net photosynthesis measured at the growth CO2 concentration (Agrowth) was reduced under warming and increased under EC. The thermal optimum for Agrowth (ToptA) increased by ∼1.8 °C with EC but increased with warming in only two species. In contrast, the activation energies and thermal optima for Vcmax and Jmax, which are used to estimate photosynthesis in Earth System Models, were unaffected by growth environment. There were a few interactions between growth, CO2, and warming. These results suggest increased photosynthesis of widespread boreal tree species under EC may be offset by future reductions in photosynthetic capacity related to warming. We also show that the temperature sensitivities of parameters used to estimate global photosynthesis in large-scale models are generally unaffected by simulated climate change in these species.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life Cycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern Hemisphere from a Multimillennial GCM Simulation

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are rare in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), making it difficult to study possible precursors or subsequent impacts. Using a multimillennial coupled climate model simulation producing 161 SSWs in the SH, we present a detailed study of their life cycle. We show that SH SSWs are predominantly displacement events forced by wave-1 planetary waves, and that a surface signature similar to the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is detectable up to two months before the onset date, but there is a tendency for a transition from wave 1 before to zonally symmetric anomalies after onset. We identify a strong weakening of the Amundsen Sea low as one of the most prominent precursors, which weakens the climatological wave-2 and wave-3 stationary waves and strengthens wave-1 forcing. Compared to their northern counterparts, SH SSWs generally have a longer time scale, and while there is evidence of pre-onset forcing related to tropical sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean dipole is more important than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Significance Statement Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events where the winter polar stratosphere warms within a few days to temperatures usually only experienced in summer. These events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, both the observational record and standard climate model simulations are not enough to understand how SSWs develop, or how they might change surface weather. Here we use very long global climate simulations that produce a large number of SSWs in the Southern Hemisphere to study the development and impact of these events. This includes possible precursors as well as the influence they have on surface weather after they occur.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Applicability of Gas/Particle Partitioning Theory to SOA using Novel Chemically-Speciated Partitioning Measurements (Final Report)

The main objective of this research grant project was to investigate the physical-chemical processes and properties of particles and partitioning gases that influence gas/particle (G/P) partitioning and timescales for equilibration, to directly determine the conditions under which equilibrium G/P partitioning theory can be applied to secondary organic aerosol (SOA). SOA constitutes a major component of submicron particles in the atmosphere, which have important implications for air quality, human and ecosystem health, radiation balance, and climate; however SOA formation, evolution and losses are not well understood. Use of novel on-line measurements of chemically-speciated partitioning measurements of both gas-phase and particle-phase components was a central component to advancing these scientific goals. The key approach was to conduct environmental chamber studies with systems of increasing complexity to determine G/P partitioning rates and equilibrium states for chemically-speciated SOA components. The project builds on our previous work on gas-wall partitioning that must be understood in order to study G/P partitioning in chambers, and to help extrapolate the results to be atmospherically relevant. The goal was to employ measurements and modeling to systematically determine when G/P partitioning theory accurately describes the distribution of oxidized organic compounds in the gas and aerosol phases, and when and why it does not (e.g., aerosol phase-state kinetic limitations, non-ideal mixing, phase separation, oligomer formation,), for chemical and physical conditions typically found throughout the continental boundary layer.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1976

International Conference on Environmental Sensing and Assessment, Las Vegas, Nev., September 14-19, 1975, Proceedings. Volumes 1 & 2

The papers deal with the detection of hazardous environmental pollutants, the development of emission control plans, and the design of compliance monitoring systems. Topics include remote sensing techniques in environmental pollution monitoring, monitoring of atmospheric particulate matter, air pollution due to sulfur dioxide and other inorganic compounds, marine pollution, atmospheric aerosols, industrial pollution, and legal aspects of pollution monitoring. Other papers examine the toxic effects of heavy metals and halogenated hydrocarbons, pollution associated with waste-disposal processes, pesticide residues in soil and groundwater, evaluations of groundwater quality, and monitoring of nuclear wastes. The interaction of climate and pollution is also discussed along with global pollutant transport, environmental modeling, ambient environmental air quality, aircraft and ground-vehicle emissions, and pollution associated with energy extraction and utilization processes. Individual items are announced in this issue.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1991

Space Observations for Global Change

There is now compelling evidence that man's activities are changing both the composition of the atmospheric and the global landscape quite drastically. The consequences of these changes on the global climate of the 21st century is currently a hotly debated subject. Global models of a coupled Earth-ocean-atmosphere system are still very primitive and progress in this area appears largely data limited, specially over the global biosphere. A concerted effort on monitoring biospheric functions on scales from pixels to global and days to decades needs to be coordinated on an international scale in order to address the questions related to global change. An international program of space observations and ground research was described.

Rasool, S. I.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Interactive Sectoring and Animation of Global Change Data

In order to analyze and share results of global change data sets, scientists require a venue in which to exchange their results. One appropriate medium for these collaborative efforts is the world wide web. Intuitive and efficient user interfaces, and background processes have been developed at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center to interactively view weather satellite, radar, global temperature anomaly, and model output data using the world wide web. These tools combine scripts, Java and C code which allows the user to easily interact with data, to create high resolution sector images, and sectored animation sequences. This paper examines the architecture and interfaces and how they are used for collaborative research.

Meyer, Paul J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds in the Southern Great Plains

Satellite observations of low-level clouds have challenged the assumption that adiabatic liquid water content combined with constant physical thickness will lead to a negative cloud optics feedback in a decadal climate change. We explore the reasons for the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed site in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. We find that low cloud liquid water path is approximately invariant with temperature in winter but decreases strongly with temperature in summer, consistent with the satellite inferences at this latitude. This behavior occurs because liquid water content shows no detectable temperature dependence while cloud physical thickness decreases with warming. Thinning of clouds with warming is observed on seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal time scales; it is most obvious in the warm sectors of baroclinic waves. Although cloud top is observed to slightly descend with warming, the primary cause of thinning is the ascent of cloud base due to the reduction in surface relative humidity and the concomitant increase in the lifting condensation level of surface air. Low cloud liquid water path is not observed to be a continuous function of temperature. Rather, the behavior we observe is best explained as a transition in the frequency of occurrence of different boundary layer types: At cold temperatures, a mixture of stratified and convective boundary layers is observed, leading to a broad distribution of liquid water path values, while at warm temperatures, only convective boundary layers with small liquid water paths, some of them decoupled, are observed. Our results, combined with the earlier satellite inferences, imply that the commonly quoted 1.50 C lower limit for the equilibrium global climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2, which is based on models with near-adiabatic liquid water behavior and constant physical thickness, should be revised upward.

DelGenio, Anthony D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Climatic Implications of the Observed Temperature Dependence of the Liquid Water Path of Low Clouds in the Southern Great Plains

Satellite observations of low-level clouds have challenged the assumption that adiabatic liquid water content combined with constant physical thickness will lead to a negative cloud optics feedback in a decadal climate change. We explore the reasons for the satellite results using four years of surface remote sensing data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program Cloud and Radiation Testbed site in the Southern Great Plains of the United States. We find that low cloud liquid water path is approximately invariant with temperature in winter but decreases strongly with temperature in summer, consistent with the satellite inferences at this latitude. This behavior occurs because liquid water content shows no detectable temperature dependence while cloud physical thickness decreases with warming. Thinning of clouds with warming is observed on seasonal, synoptic, and diurnal time scales; it is most obvious in the warm sectors of baroclinic waves. Although cloud top is observed to slightly descend with warming, the primary cause of thinning, is the ascent of cloud base due to the reduction in surface relative humidity and the concomitant increase in the lifting condensation level of surface air. Low cloud liquid water path is not observed to be a continuous function of temperature. Rather, the behavior we observe is best explained as a transition in the frequency of occurrence of different boundary layer types. At cold temperatures, a mixture of stratified and convective boundary layers is observed, leading to a broad distribution of liquid water path values, while at warm temperatures, only convective boundary layers with small liquid water paths, some of them decoupled, are observed. Our results, combined with the earlier satellite inferences, imply that the commonly quoted 1.5C lower limit for the equilibrium global climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 which is based on models with near-adiabatic liquid water behavior and constant physical thickness, should be revised upward.

DelGenio, Anthony↗
NASA NTRS1999

Towards a Global Aerosol Climatology: Preliminary Trends in Tropospheric Aerosol Amounts and Corresponding Impact on Radiative Forcing between 1950 and 1990

A global aerosol climatology is needed in the study of decadal temperature change due to natural and anthropogenic forcing of global climate change. A preliminary aerosol climatology has been developed from global transport models for a mixture of sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols from fossil fuel burning, including also contributions from other major aerosol types such as soil dust and sea salt. The aerosol distributions change for the period of 1950 to 1990 due to changes in emissions of SO2 and carbon particles from fossil fuel burning. The optical thickness of fossil fuel derived aerosols increased by nearly a factor of 3 during this period, with particularly strong increase in eastern Asia over the whole time period. In countries where environmental laws came into effect since the early 1980s (e.g. US and western Europe), emissions and consequently aerosol optical thicknesses did not increase considerably after 1980, resulting in a shift in the global distribution pattern over this period. In addition to the optical thickness, aerosol single scattering albedos may have changed during this period due to different trends in absorbing black carbon and reflecting sulfate aerosols. However, due to the uncertainties in the emission trends, this change cannot be determined with any confidence. Radiative forcing of this aerosol distribution is calculated for several scenarios, resulting in a wide range of uncertainties for top-of-atmosphere (TOA) forcings. Uncertainties in the contribution of the strongly absorbing black carbon aerosol leads to a range in TOA forcings of ca. -0.5 to + 0.1 Wm (exp. -2), while the change in aerosol distributions between 1950 to 1990 leads to a change of -0.1 to -0.3 Wm (exp. -2), for fossil fuel derived aerosol with a "moderate" contribution of black carbon aerosol.

Tegen, Ina↗
NASA NTRS2001

Variability of Antarctic Sea Ice 1979-1998

The principal characteristics of the variability of Antarctic sea ice cover as previously described from satellite passive-microwave observations are also evident in a systematically-calibrated and analyzed data set for 20.2 years (1979-1998). The total Antarctic sea ice extent (concentration > 15 %) increased by 13,440 +/- 4180 sq km/year (+1.18 +/- 0.37%/decade). The area of sea ice within the extent boundary increased by 16,960 +/- 3,840 sq km/year (+1.96 +/- 0.44%/decade). Regionally, the trends in extent are positive in the Weddell Sea (1.5 +/- 0.9%/decade), Pacific Ocean (2.4 +/- 1.4%/decade), and Ross (6.9 +/- 1.1 %/decade) sectors, slightly negative in the Indian Ocean (-1.5 +/- 1.8%/decade, and strongly negative in the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector (-9.5 +/- 1.5%/decade). For the entire ice pack, small ice increases occur in all seasons with the largest increase during autumn. On a regional basis, the trends differ season to season. During summer and fall, the trends are positive or near zero in all sectors except the Bellingshausen-Amundsen Seas sector. During winter and spring, the trends are negative or near zero in all sectors except the Ross Sea, which has positive trends in all seasons. Components of interannual variability with periods of about 3 to 5 years are regionally large, but tend to counterbalance each other in the total ice pack. The interannual variability of the annual mean sea-ice extent is only 1.6% overall, compared to 5% to 9% in each of five regional sectors. Analysis of the relation between regional sea ice extents and spatially-averaged surface temperatures over the ice pack gives an overall sensitivity between winter ice cover and temperature of -0.7% change in sea ice extent per K. For summer, some regional ice extents vary positively with temperature and others negatively. The observed increase in Antarctic sea ice cover is counter to the observed decreases in the Arctic. It is also qualitatively consistent with the counterintuitive prediction of a global atmospheric-ocean model of increasing sea ice around Antarctica with climate warming due to the stabilizing effects of increased snowfall on the Southern Ocean.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Review of Current Investigations of Urban-Induced Rainfall and Recommendations for the Future

Precipitation is a key link in the global water cycle and a proxy for changing climate; therefore proper assessment of the urban environment s impact on precipitation (land use, aerosols, thermal properties) will be increasingly important in ongoing climate diagnostics and prediction, Global Water and Energy Cycle (GWEC) analysis and modeling, weather forecasting, freshwater resource management, urban planning-design and land-atmosphere-ocean interface processes. These facts are particularly critical if current projections for global urban growth are accurate. The goal of this paper is to provide a concise review of recent (1990-present) studies related to how the urban environment affects precipitation. In addition to providing a synopsis of current work, recent findings are placed in context with historical investigations such as METROMEX studies. Both observational and modeling studies of urban-induced rainfall are discussed. Additionally, a discussion of the relative roles of urban dynamic and microphysical (e.g. aerosol) processes is presented. The paper closes with a set of recommendations for what observations and capabilities are needed in the future to advance our understanding of the processes.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
NASA NTRS2013

Co-variation of Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP5 Models and Satellite Observations

Current variability of precipitation (P) and its response to surface temperature (T) are analysed using coupled (CMIP5) and atmosphere-only (AMIP5) climate model simulations and compared with observational estimates.There is striking agreement between Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) observed and AMIP5)simulated P anomalies over land both globally and in the tropics suggesting that prescribed sea surface temperature and realistic radiative forcings are sufficient for simulating the interannual variability in continental P. Differences between the observed and simulated P variability over the ocean, originate primarily from the wet tropical regions, in particular the western Pacific, but are reduced slightly after 1995. All datasets show positive responses of P to T globally of around 2 % K for simulations and 3-4 % K in GPCP observations but model responses over the tropical oceans are around 3 times smaller than GPCP over the period 1988-2005. The observed anticorrelation between land and ocean P, linked with El Nio Southern Oscillation, is captured by the simulations. All data sets over the tropical ocean show a tendency for wet regions to become wetter and dry regions drier with warming. Over the wet region (greater than or equal to 75 precipitation percentile), the precipitation response is 13-15%K for GPCP and 5%K for models while trends in P are 2.4% decade for GPCP, 0.6% decade for CMIP5 and 0.9decade for AMIP5 suggesting that models are underestimating the precipitation responses or a deficiency exists in the satellite datasets.

surface temperature↗