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DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the environmental drivers of human blastomycosis cases in the Midwestern United States

Blastomycosis is a fungal infection endemic to the eastern United States (US) and Canada caused by the inhalation of the fungi Blastomyces spp. Currently, the environmental drivers of disease dynamics are poorly understood. The goal of our work was to explore what environmental conditions are associated with the annual presence of blastomycosis cases, and therefore are potentially explanatory of the ecological niche of Blastomyces. We examined the relationships between reported cases of blastomycosis in three Midwestern US states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) from 2007–2017 in relation to eleven hypothesized environmental conditions, including climate, stream and soil mineral content, and land cover variables. Then, we fit logistic regression models to explore the relationships between the environmental variables and yearly blastomycosis case occurrence. Mean soil moisture, stream sediment mercury content, percent of water within the county, and woody wetlands land cover were all positively associated with the presence of annual cases, with woody wetlands having the most consistent signal across the three states. We also found significant differences in the likelihood of case presence between US states that were not explained by the variables in our model, suggesting state-level differences in case reporting and disease awareness. Our results provide a perspective on potential biological hypotheses to further test regarding environmental controls on the life cycle and ecological niche of Blastomyces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Priorities, opportunities, and challenges for integrating microorganisms into Earth system models for climate change prediction

ABSTRACT Climate change jeopardizes human health, global biodiversity, and sustainability of the biosphere. To make reliable predictions about climate change, scientists use Earth system models (ESMs) that integrate physical, chemical, and biological processes occurring on land, the oceans, and the atmosphere. Although critical for catalyzing coupled biogeochemical processes, microorganisms have traditionally been left out of ESMs. Here, we generate a “top 10” list of priorities, opportunities, and challenges for the explicit integration of microorganisms into ESMs. We discuss the need for coarse-graining microbial information into functionally relevant categories, as well as the capacity for microorganisms to rapidly evolve in response to climate-change drivers. Microbiologists are uniquely positioned to collect novel and valuable information necessary for next-generation ESMs, but this requires data harmonization and transdisciplinary collaboration to effectively guide adaptation strategies and mitigation policy.

Microbiology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent by Combining Meteorological and Satellite Data with Lidar Maps

Abstract An accurate characterization of the water content of snowpack, or snow water equivalent (SWE), is necessary to quantify water availability and constrain hydrologic and land surface models. Recently, airborne observations (e.g., lidar) have emerged as a promising method to accurately quantify SWE at high resolutions (scales of ∼100 m and finer). However, the frequency of these observations is very low, typically once or twice per season in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. Here, we present a machine learning framework that is based on random forests to model temporally sparse lidar-derived SWE, enabling estimation of SWE at unmapped time points. We approximated the physical processes governing snow accumulation and melt as well as snow characteristics by obtaining 15 different variables from gridded estimates of precipitation, temperature, surface reflectance, elevation, and canopy. Results showed that, in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado, our framework is capable of modeling SWE with a higher accuracy when compared with estimates generated by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS). The mean value of the coefficient of determination R 2 using our approach was 0.57, and the root-mean-square error (RMSE) was 13 cm, which was a significant improvement over SNODAS (mean R 2 = 0.13; RMSE = 20 cm). We explored the relative importance of the input variables and observed that, at the spatial resolution of 800 m, meteorological variables are more important drivers of predictive accuracy than surface variables that characterize the properties of snow on the ground. This research provides a framework to expand the applicability of lidar-derived SWE to unmapped time points. Significance Statement Snowpack is the main source of freshwater for close to 2 billion people globally and needs to be estimated accurately. Mountainous snowpack is highly variable and is challenging to quantify. Recently, lidar technology has been employed to observe snow in great detail, but it is costly and can only be used sparingly. To counter that, we use machine learning to estimate snowpack when lidar data are not available. We approximate the processes that govern snowpack by incorporating meteorological and satellite data. We found that variables associated with precipitation and temperature have more predictive power than variables that characterize snowpack properties. Our work helps to improve snowpack estimation, which is critical for sustainable management of water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Mars Crustal Magnetic Field Control of Plasma Boundary Locations and Atmospheric Loss: MHD Prediction and Comparison with MAVEN

We present results from a global Mars time-dependent MHD simulation under constant solar wind and solar radiation impact considering inherent magnetic field variations due to continuous planetary rotation. We calculate the 3-D shapes and locations of the bow shock (BS) and the induced magnetospheric boundary (IMB) and then examine their dynamic changes with time. We develop a physics-based, empirical algorithm to effectively summarize the multidimensional crustal field distribution. It is found that by organizing the model results using this new approach, the Mars crustal field shows a clear, significant influence on both the IMB and the BS. Specifically, quantitative relationships have been established between the field distribution and the mean boundary distances and the cross-section areas in the terminator plane for both of the boundaries. The model-predicted relationships are further verified by the observations from the NASA Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission. Our analysis shows that the boundaries are collectively affected by the global crustal field distribution, which, however, cannot be simply parameterized by a local parameter like the widely used subsolar longitude. Our calculations show that the variability of the intrinsic crustal field distribution in Mars-centered Solar Orbital itself may account for approx.60% of the variation in total atmospheric loss, when external drivers are static. It is found that the crustal field has not only a shielding effect for atmospheric loss but also an escape-fostering effect by positively affecting the transterminator ion flow cross-section area.

Global↗

NASA NTRS1976

Cost as a technology driver

Cost managment as a guiding factor in optimum development of technology, and proper timing of cost-saving programs in the development of a system or technology with payoffs in development and operational advances are discussed and illustrated. Advances enhancing the performance of hardware or software advances raising productivity or reducing cost, are outlined, with examples drawn from: thermochemical thrust maximization, development of cryogenic storage tanks, improvements in fuel cells for Space Shuttle, design of a spacecraft pyrotechnic initiator, cost cutting by reduction in the number of parts to be joined, and cost cutting by dramatic reductions in circuit component number with small-scale double-diffused integrated circuitry. Program-focused supporting research and technology models are devised to aid judicious timing of cost-conscious research programs.

Fitzgerald, P. E., Jr.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microreactor Optimization Using Simulation And Economics (mouse)

Microreactor Optimization Using Simulation and Economics (MOUSE) is a tool that integrates both nuclear microreactor design and reactor economics to provide comprehensive evaluations and optimizations. This tool enables stakeholders to explore the interplay between technical and economic variables, guiding them towards effective and competitive microreactor solutions. For the reactor core simulations, MOUSE leverages the OpenMC Monte Carlo Particle Transport Code to perform detailed core simulations for various microreactor designs. The included OpenMC models are 2D core designs of a Liquid Metal Thermal Microreactor (LMTR), a Gas-Cooled TRISO-Fueled Microreactor (GCMR), and a Heat Pipe Microreactor. Beyond core design, MOUSE includes simplified calculations for: - Calculating the masses of heat exchangers within the system. - Mechanical power of pumps. - Estimating the area occupied by various buildings within the nuclear plant. For the economic analysis, MOUSE provides detailed bottom-up cost estimates, encompassing a wide range of costs including preconstruction costs, direct costs, indirect costs, training costs, financial costs, operation & maintenance (O&M) costs, and fuel costs. These cost estimations are developed using data from the MARVEL project and additional literature sources, enabling the calculation of total capital costs and levelized cost of energy for both first-of-a-kind and nth-of-a-kind microreactors. MOUSE also enables analysis of the cost drivers and competitiveness in the electricity market. MOUSE allows users to modify a wide array of technical and economic parameters to evaluate different scenarios and their impacts. Examples of these parameters include: Fuels, coolants, or reflector materials Enrichment levels Control drum materials and geometry Fuel pin geometry and materials Moderator pin geometry and materials Reactor core and reflector dimensions Packing factor for the TRISO particles Nuclear reactor power and reactor burnup Number of sensors Shielding thickness Reactor vessel and guard vessel dimensions Operational staff requirements Number of emergency shutdowns Levelization period Interest rate Construction duration Since MOUSE is powered by the WATTS toolkit, it supports optimization studies, parametric analyses, and uncertainty calculations/propagation. The optimization techniques enable users to identify optimal design and economic configurations. The parametric analysis tools allow users to explore the sensitivity of various parameters, while uncertainty propagation helps quantify the impact of uncertainties on overall performance and cost. User Interface and Workflow: Currently, MOUSE is a command-line-based tool. Users can input various reactor design or economic parameters, modify the designs, run simulations, and visualize results through comprehensive data visualization and reporting capabilities. The typical workflow involves setting up the reactor model, defining economic parameters, running simulations, and analyzing the results to make informed decisions. By combining advanced design calculations with detailed economic modeling, MOUSE provides a robust framework for optimizing nuclear microreactor technologies, enhancing their competitiveness, and guiding stakeholders towards innovative and cost-effective solutions.

Hanna, Botros [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Id↗

DOE OSTI2023

Chapter 4: "Waste"-to-Energy for Decarbonization - Transforming Nut Shells Into Carbon-Negative Electricity

This chapter presents a study demonstrating waste pistachio nut shells as a renewable feedstock for climate-friendly electricity generation via industrial gasification technology. The study includes biomass feedstock characterization (i.e., pistachio waste critical material attributes), process variability (i.e., bulk material handling), and overall operational reliability and conversion performance through extended testing. Additionally, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle assessment (LCA) were performed to assess the economic feasibility and environmental impact of the technology to transform agricultural waste to biopower. For processing pistachio waste material, among critical material attributes, fines content in the biomass (<1/4") had the largest potential to reduce the operating time of the gasifiers due to plugging. Pelletizing fines and co-feeding them with the mixed pistachio waste increased the average feed density, feed rate, and biochar production. Compared to pine wood chips, mixed pistachio waste yielded higher biochar quantity but slightly reduced quality. In general, a systematic Quality by Design methodology is the preferred approach for designing preprocessing and material conveyance systems, where a downstream technology (end user) for the produced intermediate is specified at the outset. TEA results show that the biochar production rate and selling price had an overwhelming impact on the modeled Minimum Electricity Selling Price (MESP), which ranged from 35.5 to 39.9 cents/kWh for the cases studied (16 h/day operational basis). Moreover, LCA results show that the valorization of pistachio shells for biopower generation is a "carbon negative" process that can help decarbonize the U.S. electricity grid. The specific carbon intensity was -0.29 to -0.71 kg CO2e/kWh, compared to 0.45 kg CO2e/kWh for the average U.S. electricity mix. Biochar production from pistachio waste as a potential means for carbon sequestration was a significant driver for the LCA. The highly stable biochar permanently sequesters a considerable fraction of biochar carbon in the ground, more than enough to offset the life cycle emissions, and can be a complementary climate change mitigation strategy.

bio-char↗

NASA NTRS2012

Snow Cover and Precipitation Impacts on Dry Season Streamflow in the Lower Mekong Basin

Climate change impacts on dry season streamflow in the Mekong River are relatively understudied, despite the fact that water availability during this time is critically important for agricultural and ecological systems. Analyses of two gauging stations (Vientiane and Kratie) in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) show significant positive correlations between dry season (March through May, MAM) discharge and upper basin snow cover and local precipitation. Using snow cover, precipitation, and upstream discharge as predictors, we develop skillful regression models for MAM streamflow at Vientiane and Kratie, and force these models with output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) experiments for the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The GCM simulations predict divergent trends in snow cover (decreasing) and precipitation (increasing) over the twenty-first century, driving overall negligible long-term trends in dry season streamflow. Our study demonstrates how future changes in dry season streamflow in the LMB will depend on changes in snow cover and precipitation, factors that will need to be considered when assessing the full basin response to other climatic and non-climatic drivers.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-Enthalpy Testing to Validate Simulation of an Aerosol Capture Probe

AERACEPT (Aerosol Rapid Analysis Combined Entry Probe/sonde Technology) is a developing technology enabling in-situ aerosol particle sampling and analysis in a small spacecraft mission envelope. It integrates a passive aerosol sample collection system into a probe’s thermal protection system (TPS) to remove the need for heat shield separation and active descent control (parachutes, gliders, etc.). AERACEPT is being validated against the requirements of the Nephele mission concept, which targets the middle and lower Venus cloud layers. The proposed technology employs 3D Carbon-Carbon (3D-CC) at the probe’s nose to withstand the extreme environments encountered in a Venus entry without producing pyrolysis gases that would contaminate the mission sample collection. Any shape change of this 3D-CC sample inlet will affect airflow through the sampling system, thereby impacting aerosol sample collection bias and efficiency. Accurate prediction of the nose’s material response during entry is there-fore of fundamental importance to the development and practical use of this technology. As a result, the AERACEPT project is planning a test campaign in the newly built PlasmatronX facility with a novel “Open Iso-Q” test article to validate state-of-the-art material response tools for a simulated Venus entry. The PlasmatronX is a 350 kW inductively-coupled plasma facility developed and run by the Center for Hypersonics and Entry Systems Studies at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. The facility can support ground testing for a variety of planetary destinations by simulating entry conditions in Nitrogen, Air, and Carbon Dioxide. To best simulate the Venus atmosphere and match flight-like recession, the planned AERACEPT test campaign will use Carbon Dioxide as its test gas. AERACEPT has designed two test articles for this campaign: 1) a standard test article whose curved surface approximates a constant applied heat flux (“Closed Iso-Q” model) and 2) a novel inlet test article with a through-hole at the stagnation point (“Open Iso-Q” model). Both article types consist of a 3D-CC sample bonded to a graphite fixture. All articles will be laser scanned before and after testing to estimate shape change and recession, and the “Closed Iso-Q” articles will be instrumented with thermocouples to provide temperature histories. The test article temperatures and inlet shape change will be compared against simulations run with the Porous material Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM (PATO) to validate the AERACEPT 3D-CC material response model. Due to the high thermal conductivity of 3D-CC, multidimensional effects have a large influence on the test article temperature and the standard 1-D material response tools are not sufficient for test planning. The test campaign features (e.g. article design, run duration, heat fluxes) are therefore informed by a series of 3-D simulations using state-of-the-art material response tools such as PATO. The test campaign is scheduled for spring of 2024. Expected results include 1) Key drivers of selected test conditions (e.g. matching mission flight atmosphere & recession), 2) Simulation results that informed test article design, 3) Acquired test data such as recession measurements, temperature histories, and photos, and 4) Comparisons between test results and simulation predictions.

AERACEPT↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-Enthalpy Testing to Validate Simulation of an Aerosol Capture Probe

AERACEPT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tiny Sc Allows the Chains to Rattle: Impact of Lu and Y Doping on the Charge-Density Wave in ScV 6 Sn 6

The kagome metals display an intriguing variety of electronic and magnetic phases arising from the connectivity of atoms on a kagome lattice. A growing number of these materials with vanadium–kagome nets host charge–density waves (CDWs) at low temperatures, including ScV 6 Sn 6 , CsV 3 Sb 5 , and V 3 Sb 2 . Curiously, only the Sc version of the RV 6 Sn 6 materials with a HfFe 6 Ge 6 -type structure hosts a CDW (R = Gd–Lu, Y, Sc). In this study, we investigate the role of rare earth size in CDW formation in the RV 6 Sn 6 compounds. Magnetization measurements on our single crystals of (Sc,Lu)V 6 Sn 6 and (Sc,Y)V 6 Sn 6 establish that the CDW is suppressed by substituting Sc by larger Lu or Y. Single-crystal X-ray diffraction reveals that compressible Sn–Sn bonds accommodate the larger rare earth atoms within loosely packed R–Sn–Sn chains without significantly expanding the lattice. We propose that Sc provides extra room in these chains crucial to CDW formation in ScV 6 Sn 6 . Our rattling chain model explains why both physical pressure and substitution by larger rare earth atoms hinder CDW formation despite opposite impacts on lattice size. Here, we emphasize the cooperative effect of pressure and rare earth size by demonstrating that pressure further suppresses the CDW in a Lu-doped ScV 6 Sn 6 crystal. Our model not only addresses why a CDW only forms in the RV 6 Sn 6 materials with tiny Sc but also advances our understanding of why unusual CDWs form in the kagome metals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anthropogenic aerosols mask increases in US rainfall by greenhouse gases

A comprehensive understanding of human-induced changes to rainfall is essential for water resource management and infrastructure design. However, at regional scales, existing detection and attribution studies are rarely able to conclusively identify human influence on precipitation. Here we show that anthropogenic aerosol and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the primary drivers of precipitation change over the United States. GHG emissions increase mean and extreme precipitation from rain gauge measurements across all seasons, while the decadal-scale effect of global aerosol emissions decreases precipitation. Local aerosol emissions further offset GHG increases in the winter and spring but enhance rainfall during the summer and fall. Our results show that the conflicting literature on historical precipitation trends can be explained by offsetting aerosol and greenhouse gas signals. At the scale of the United States, individual climate models reproduce observed changes but cannot confidently determine whether a given anthropogenic agent has increased or decreased rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Global drivers of local water stresses and global responses to local water policies in the United States

Abstract The rapid depletion of US groundwater resources and rising number of dying wells in the Western US brings attention to the significance of groundwater governance and sustainability restrictions. However, such restrictions on groundwater withdrawals are likely to generate spillover effects causing further environmental stresses in other locations and adding to the complexity of sustainability challenges. The goal of this paper is to improve our understanding of the implications of growing global food demand for local sustainability stresses and the implications of local sustainability policies for local, regional, and global food production, land use, and prices. We employ SIMPLE-G-US (Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment—Gridded version for the United States) to distangle the significance or remote changes in population and income for irrigation and water resources in the US. Then we examine the local-to-global impacts of potential US groundwater sustainability policies. We find that developments in international markets are significant, as more than half of US sustainability stresses by 2050 are caused by increased commodity demand from abroad. Furthermore, a US sustainable groundwater policy can cause overseas spillovers of US production, thereby potentially contributing to environmental stresses elsewhere, even as groundwater stress in the US is alleviated. These unintended consequences could include deforestation due to cropland expansion, as well as degradation in water quality due to intensification of production in non-targeted areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Ride-Matching for Large-Scale Transportation Systems

Efficient dynamic ride-matching (DRM) in large-scale transportation systems is a key driver in transport simulations to yield answers to challenging problems. Although the DRM problem is simple to solve, it quickly becomes a computationally challenging problem in large-scale transportation system simulations. Therefore, this study thoroughly examines the DRM problem dynamics and proposes an optimization-based solution framework to solve the problem efficiently. To benefit from parallel computing and reduce computational times, the problem’s network is divided into clusters utilizing a commonly used unsupervised machine learning algorithm along with a linear programming model. Then, these sub-problems are solved using another linear program to finalize the ride-matching. At the clustering level, the framework allows users adjusting cluster sizes to balance the trade-off between the computational time savings and the solution quality deviation. A case study in the Chicago Metropolitan Area, U.S., illustrates that the framework can reduce the average computational time by 58% at the cost of increasing the average pick up time by 26% compared with a system optimum, that is, non-clustered, approach. Another case study in a relatively small city, Bloomington, Illinois, U.S., shows that the framework provides quite similar results to the system-optimum approach in approximately 62% less computational time.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Independent Review of Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant Freon Release Authorized Limits and Evaluation of Corresponding Radiological Doses

The Portsmouth/Paducah Project Office (PPPO) proposes to use the American National Standard Institute (ANSI)/Health Physics Society (HPS) N13.12 (ANSI 2013) volumetric screening levels as Authorized Limits (ALs) for the release of cryofluorane R-114 (Freon) at the Paducah Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PGDP) in Paducah, Kentucky. A review of the proposed ALs document indicated that potential exposure scenarios from the release of Freon are adequately discussed therein. However, questions arose regarding the assumptions made for the ANSI N13.12 clearance values, and whether or not all pathway doses were adequately considered in the Authorized Limits Request. For example, PPPO used the inverse square rule to estimate dose to the truck driver. A more appropriate evaluation would have considered the material as a cylindrical source for this pathway. In addition, the inverse square rule was inadequately applied to the inhalation and ingestion pathways. Furthermore, while the ANSI N13.12 volumetric clearance values are used in the ALs, questions arose concerning whether the values are appropriate for materials of greater than 1 metric ton, and whether or not the ANSI N13.12 standard could be used for liquids that are sent to an incinerator. For these reasons, dose modeling was conducted to demonstrate that using ANSI/HPS N13.12 screening levels as ALs for release of PGDP Freon meets the dose criteria set in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1. This report provides a bounding dose analysis using scenarios described in PPPO document. Realistic parameters, such as the incinerator characteristics data, are used when available.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

NASA NTRS1972

A program for calculating expansion-tube flow quantities for real-gas mixtures and comparison with experimental results

A computer program written in FORTRAN 4 language is presented which determines expansion-tube flow quantities for real test gases CO2 N2, O2, Ar, He, and H2, or mixtures of these gases, in thermochemical equilibrium. The effects of dissociation and first and second ionization are included. Flow quantities behind the incident shock into the quiescent test gas are determined from the pressure and temperature of the quiescent test gas in conjunction with: (1) incident-shock velocity, (2) static pressure immediately behind the incident shock, or (3) pressure and temperature of the driver gas (imperfect hydrogen or helium). The effect of the possible existence of a shock reflection at the secondary diaphragm of the expansion tube is included. Expansion-tube test-section flow conditions are obtained by performing an isentropic unsteady expansion from the conditions behind the incident shock or reflected shock to either the test-region velocity or the static pressure. Both a thermochemical-equilibrium expansion and a frozen expansion are included. Flow conditions immediately behind the bow shock of a model positioned at the test section are also determined. Results from the program are compared with preliminary experimental data obtained in the Langley 6-inch expansion tube.

Miller, C. G., III↗

NASA NTRS2022

Neurosymbolic Hybrid Approach to Driver Collision Warning

There are two main algorithmic approaches to autonomous driving systems: (1) An end-to-end system in which a single deep neural network learns to map sensory input directly into appropriate warning and driving responses. (2) A mediated hybrid recognition system in which a system is created by combining independent modules that detect each semantic feature. While some researchers believe that deep learning can solve any problem, others believe that a more engineered and symbolic approach is needed to cope with complex environments with less data. Deep learning alone has achieved state-of-the-art results in many areas, from complex gameplay to predicting protein structures. In particular, in image classification and recognition, deep learning models have achieved accuracies as high as humans. But sometimes it can be very difficult to debug if the deep learning model doesn't work. Deep learning models can be vulnerable and are very sensitive to changes in data distribution. Generalization can be problematic. It's usually hard to prove why it works or doesn't. Deep learning models can also be vulnerable to adversarial attacks. Here, we combine deep learning-based object recognition and tracking with an adaptive neurosymbolic network agent, called the Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS), that can adapt to its environment by building concepts based on perceptual sequences. We achieved an improved intersection-over-union (IOU) object recognition performance of 0.65 in the adaptive retraining model compared to IOU 0.31 in the COCO data pre-trained model. We improved the object detection limits using RADAR sensors in a simulated environment, and demonstrated the weaving car detection capability by combining deep learning-based object detection and tracking with a neurosymbolic model.

Wang, Pei↗

NASA NTRS2023

Predicting Patterns of Solar Energy Buildout to Identify Opportunities for Biodiversity Conservation

The construction of solar energy facilities can have positive or negative impacts on biodiversity depending on siting and associated land use transitions. We identified drivers of solar siting and quantified patterns of buildout in states surrounding the Chesapeake Bay watershed – a biodiversity hotspot with numerous ecosystem services. Using a convolutional neural network, we mapped the footprints of ground-mounted solar arrays present in satellite imagery annually from 2017 to 2021 in Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New York, Virginia, and West Virginia. As of 2021, we identified 958 solar arrays covering 52.3 km2 built primarily on previously cultivated land, while avoiding natural landcover. We fit a binomial-Weibull model to these solar timeseries data in a hierarchical, Bayesian framework to quantify the relationship between geospatial covariates and rate of solar development. Solar array construction rate increased in cultivated areas, areas of lower agricultural suitability, lower slope, lower forest cover, lower biodiversity protection, and greater distances from roads. We also estimated changes in the rate of solar construction over time and found differences among states: acceleration in Virginia and deceleration in New York. We used parameter estimates to map the relative likelihood of future solar development across the study area. This methodology can be used to anticipate where solar is likely to be built in different landscapes and how these patterns align with conservation goals. Around the Chesapeake Bay watershed, the selection of lower quality agricultural areas for solar energy minimizes removal of important habitat and provides opportunities for native plant and pollinator restoration.

Artificial Intelligence↗