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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

On Study of Air/Space-borne Dual-Wavelength Radar for Estimates of Rain Profiles

In this study, a framework is discussed to apply air/space-borne dual-wavelength radar for the estimation of characteristic parameters of hydrometeors. The focus of our study is on the Global Precipitation Measurements (GPM) precipitation radar, a dual-wavelength radar that operates at Ku (13.8 GHz) and Ka (35 GHz) bands. As the droplet size distributions (DSD) of rain are expressed as the Gamma function, a procedure is described to derive the median volume diameter (D(sub 0)) and particle number concentration (N(sub T)) of rain. The correspondences of an important quantity of dual-wavelength radar, defined as deferential frequency ratio (DFR), to the D(sub 0) in the melting region are given as a function of the distance from the 0 C isotherm. A self-consistent iterative algorithm that shows a promising to account for rain attenuation of radar and infer the DSD without use of surface reference technique (SRT) is examined by applying it to the apparent radar reflectivity profiles simulated from the DSD model and then comparing the estimates with the model (true) results. For light to moderate rain the self-consistent rain profiling approach converges to unique and correct solutions only if the same shape factors of Gamma functions are used both to generate and retrieve the rain profiles, but does not converges to the true solutions if the DSD form is not chosen correctly. To further examine the dual-wavelength techniques, the self-consistent algorithm, along with forward and backward rain profiling algorithms, is then applied to the measurements taken from the 2nd generation Precipitation Radar (PR-2) built by Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It is found that rain profiles estimated from the forward and backward approaches are not sensitive to shape factor of DSD Gamma distribution, but the self-consistent method is.

Liao, Liang↗

Changes in Saturn's south-temperate haze distribution during the summer of 1973-1980

Attention is given to the results of a long term monitoring study of Saturn's H2 quadrupole and CH4 band absorptions outside the equatorial zone, over an interval of half a Saturn year that covers most of the perihelion half of Saturn's elliptical orbit (which is approximately bounded by the equinoxes). Marked long term changes are noted in the CH4 absorption, accompanied by weakly opposite changes in the H2 absorption. Seasonal changes are inferred on the basis of temporal variations in absorption. Spatial measurements have also been made in the 6450 A NH3 band since the 1980 equinox.

Trafton, L.↗

Dust and the intrinsic spectral index of quasar variations: hints of finite stress at the innermost stable circular orbit

ABSTRACT We present a study of 9 242 spectroscopically confirmed quasars with multiepoch ugriz photometry from the SDSS Southern Survey. By fitting a separable linear model to each quasar’s spectral variations, we decompose their five-band spectral energy distributions into variable (disc) and non-variable (host galaxy) components. In modelling the disc spectra, we include attenuation by dust on the line of sight through the host galaxy to its nucleus. We consider five commonly used attenuation laws, and find that the best description is by dust similar to that of the Small Magellanic Cloud, inferring a lack of carbonaceous grains from the relatively weak 2175-Å absorption feature. We go on to construct a composite spectrum for the quasar variations spanning 700–8000 Å. By varying the assumed power-law Lν ∝ να spectral slope, we find a best-fitting value α = 0.71 ± 0.02, excluding at high confidence the canonical Lν ∝ ν1/3 prediction for a steady-state accretion disc with a T ∝ r−3/4 temperature profile. The bluer spectral index of the observed quasar variations instead supports the model of Agol & Krolik, and Mummery & Balbus, in which a steeper temperature profile, T ∝ r−7/8, develops as a result of finite magnetically induced stress at the innermost stable circular orbit extracting energy and angular momentum from the black hole spin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Diffusion model approach to simulating electron-proton scattering events

Generative artificial intelligence is a fast-growing area of research offering various avenues for exploration in high-energy nuclear physics. In this work, we explore the use of generative models for simulating electron-proton collisions relevant to experiments like the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility and the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). These experiments play a critical role in advancing our understanding of nucleons and nuclei in terms of quark and gluon degrees of freedom. The use of generative models for simulating collider events faces several challenges such as the sparsity of the data, the presence of global or eventwide constraints, and steeply falling particle distributions. In this work, we focus on the implementation of diffusion models for the simulation of electron-proton scattering events at EIC energies. Our results demonstrate that diffusion models can reproduce relevant observables such as momentum distributions and correlations of particles, momentum sum rules, and the leading electron kinematics, all of which are of particular interest in electron-proton collisions. Although the sampling process is relatively slow compared to other machine-learning architectures, we find diffusion models can generate high-quality samples. We foresee various applications of our work including inference for nuclear structure, interpretable generative machine learning, and searches of physics beyond the Standard Model. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

We Know Where We Don't Know: 3D Bayesian CNNs for Credible Geometric Uncertainty

Deep learning has been successfully applied to the segmentation of 3D Computed Tomography (CT) scans. Establishing the credibility of these segmentations requires uncertainty quantification (UQ) to identify untrustworthy predictions. Recent UQ architectures include Monte Carlo dropout networks (MCDNs), which approximate deep Gaussian processes, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), which learn the distribution of the weight space. BNNs are advantageous over MCDNs for UQ but are thought to be computationally infeasible in high dimension, and neither architecture has produced interpretable geometric uncertainty maps. We propose a novel 3D Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN), the first deep learning method which generates statistically credible geometric uncertainty maps and scales for application to 3D data. We present experimental results on CT scans of graphite electrodes and laser-welded metals and show that our BCNN outperforms an MCDN in recent uncertainty metrics. The geometric uncertainty maps generated by our BCNN capture distributions of sigmoid values that are interpretable as confidence intervals, critical for applications that rely on deep learning for high-consequence decisions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Geomagnetic storm fields near a synchronous satellite.

An apparent early recovery of the main phase of geomagnetic storms at the distance of the synchronous satellite is examined in terms of changing electric current distributions in the magnetosphere during magnetic storms. It is suggested that a rapid recession of the edge of the plasma sheet (after the advance toward the earth during an early epoch of the main phase) is partly responsible for the early recovery. Relevant plasma sheet variations during geomagnetic storms are found to be in agreement with the inferred variations.

Kawasaki, K.↗

Electron plasma oscillations in the near-earth solar wind: Preliminary observations and interpretations

Preliminary results and conclusions of a study of electric field oscillations in the upstream solar wind are reported. The OGO-5 orbits are on the dusk (three) and on the dawn (one) sides of the earth-sun line. It is concluded that there are electron streams produced at or near the bow shock. These streams penetrate the incoming solar wind plasma, and generate quasi-electromagnetic waves. The streams (as inferred from the wave levels) occur without regard to dawn-dusk location, as opposed to the low-frequency MHD upstream disturbances driven by backstreaming protons, which show a definitely strong preference for the dawn-noon sector. The presence of the suprathermal electron streams and associated wave turbulence indicates that some near-earth electron distributions are probably not representative of true solar wind distributions far away from the earth.

Fredricks, R. W.↗

Mathematical modeling of spinning elastic bodies for modal analysis.

The problem of modal analysis of an elastic appendage on a rotating base is examined to establish the relative advantages of various mathematical models of elastic structures and to extract general inferences concerning the magnitude and character of the influence of spin on the natural frequencies and mode shapes of rotating structures. In realization of the first objective, it is concluded that except for a small class of very special cases the elastic continuum model is devoid of useful results, while for constant nominal spin rate the distributed-mass finite-element model is quite generally tractable, since in the latter case the governing equations are always linear, constant-coefficient, ordinary differential equations. Although with both of these alternatives the details of the formulation generally obscure the essence of the problem and permit very little engineering insight to be gained without extensive computation, this difficulty is not encountered when dealing with simple concentrated mass models.

Likins, P. W.↗

An expert system for a distributed real-time trainer

The problem addressed by this expert system concerns the expansion of capability of a Real Time Trainer for the Spacelab flight crew. As requirements for more models or fidelity are placed upon the system, expansion is necessary. The simulator can be expanded using a larger processor or by going to a distributed system and expand by adding additional processors. The distributed system is preferable because it is more economical and can be expanded in a more incremental manner. An expert system was developed to evaluate modeling and timing capability within a real time training simulator. The expert system is based upon a distributed configuration. Components of the modeled system are control tasks, network tasks, emulator tasks, processors, displays, and a network. The distributed module expert system (DMES) allows the configuring of processors, tasks, display use, keyboard use, and selection of alternate methods to update the data buffer. Modules can be defined with execution occurring in a specific processor on a network. The system consists of a knowledge front end editor to interactively generate or update the knowledge base, an inference engine, a display module, and a recording module.

Purinton, Steven C.↗

The backscattered Lyman-alpha glow emission as a signature of the termination shock

The location of the termination shock is a problem of great interest in astrophysics and the current availability of deep space probes with UV detectors has made it possible in principle to remotely sense the termination shock. The method depends upon a measurement of the neutral hydrogen distribution which results from the presence of the heliospheric plasma structure. The charge exchange interaction between the inflowing neutral hydrogen and the plasma structure leads to an observable modification of the inflowing hydrogen distribution. Hence, both the radial dependence of the backscattered Lyman-alpha glow and the absolute difference in the upstream and downstream glow brightness are modified. Recent Voyager 1 and 2 and Pioneer 10 spacecraft data are consistent with the presence of a termination shock. The observational evidence and theoretical models from which a termination shock is inferred will be presented.

Gangopadhyay, P.↗

Star Dust Formation Activities in AzTEC-3: A Starburst Galaxy at z=5.3

Analyses of of high-redshift ultraluminous infrared OR) galaxies traditionally use the observed optical to submillimeter spectral energy distribution (SED) and estimates of the dynamical mass as observational constraints to derive the star formation rate (SFR), the stellar mass, and age of these objects. In this lecture we add this constraint to the analysis of AzTEC-3, a starburst galaxy at z=5.3. We construct different stellar and chemical evolutionary scenarios, constrained to produce the inferred dust mass and observed luminosity before the associated stellar mass exceeds the observational limit. A robust result of our models is that all scenarios require most of the radiating dust mass to have been accreted in molecular clouds. Our new procedure highlights the importance of a multi wavelength approach, and of the use of dust evolution models in constraining the age and the star formation activity and history in galaxies.

Dwek, Eliahu↗

Star and Dust Formation Activities in AzTEC-3: A Starburst Galaxy at z equals 5.3

Analyses of of high-redshift ultraluminous infrared (IR) galaxies traditionally use the observed optical to submillimeter spectral energy distribution (SED) and estimates of the dynamical mass as observational constraints to derive the star formation rate (SFR), the stellar mass, and age of these objects. In this lecture we add this constraint to the analysis of AzTEC-3, a starburst galaxy at z=5.3. We construct different stellar and chemical evolutionary scenarios, constrained to produce the inferred dust mass and observed luminosity before the associated stellar mass exceeds the observational limit. A robust result of our models is that all scenarios require most of the radiating dust mass to have been accreted in molecular clouds. Our new procedure highlights the importance of a multi wavelength approach, and of the use of dust evolution models in constraining the age and the star formation activity and history in galaxies.

Dwek, Eliahu↗

Star and Dust Formation Activities in AzTEC-3: A Starburst Galaxy at z=5.3

Analyses of of high-redshift ultraluminous infrared (IR) galaxies traditionally use the observed optical to submillimeter spectral energy distribution (SED) and estimates of the dynamical mass as observational constraints to derive the star formation rate (SFR), the stellar mass, and age of these objects. In this lecture we add this constraint to the analysis of AzTEC-3, a starburst galaxy at z=5.3. We construct different stellar and chemical evolutionary scenarios, constrained to produce the inferred dust mass and observed luminosity before the associated stellar mass exceeds the observational limit. A robust result of our models is that all scenarios require most of the radiating dust mass to have been accreted in molecular clouds. Our new procedure highlights the importance of a multiwavelength approach, and of the use of dust evolution models in constraining the age and the star formation activity and history in galaxies.

Dwek, Eliahu↗

The modeling of risk perception in the use of structural health monitoring information for optimal maintenance decisions

This paper proposes an approach to select a maintenance strategy from a predefined set of choices considering the decision maker’s behavioral risk profile. It is assumed that the damage state is characterized by a continuous state parameter probabilistically inferred from observable sensor data. This work applies an engineering application of consequence-based decision-making incorporating the acceptable risk intensity of the decision-maker, i.e., the decision-maker’s (individual or an organization) valuation of the outcome of a decision, using a risk profile model. The utility of a decision-maker is subjective, and this paper considers the fact that different decision-makers mentally assign a different importance factor (the utility) to the seriousness or urgency to take necessary actions with the increasing intensity of structural damage. The approach herein incorporates a layer of human psychology on selecting appropriate maintenance strategies that not only depend on the posterior distribution of unmeasurable damage state but also consider the behavioral risk profile of the decision-maker. Further, the collective decision-making of an organization consisting of many individuals is also investigated. The approach is exemplified in a case study involving life cycle monitoring of a miter gate, part of a lock system enabling navigation of inland waterways.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Latitudinal distribution of carbon monoxide in the deep atmosphere of Venus

A large number of i.r. spectra of Venus was obtained using the Near-Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (NIMS) on the Galileo spacecraft, during the February 1990 encounter. Preliminary results show an apparent increase in the tropospheric CO volume mixing ratio (vmr) in the northern polar region. Other possible explanations of the observations are examined and rejected and an increase of the CO abundance north of 47 deg N of (35 +/- 15)% is inferred. Some possible causes of this enhancement are suggested.

Collard, A. D.↗

Imaging Science Requirements for a Uranus Flagship Mission

Introduction: Our presentation will summarize the requirements for UV/Visible/Near-IR remote-sensing imaging science instruments (including mapping spectrometers) envisioned for the Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) mission recommended by the recent planetary decadal survey. The Uranus system offers many targets for imaging investigations. Imaging science investigations are crucial to answering fundamental questions about various physical processes that shape the Uranian system and drive its evolution. Each science objective addressed through imaging has requirements for observation and illumination geometries as well as coverage and resolution in the spatial, spectral and temporal dimensions. By combining the requirements for the diverse science targets in the Uranian system, we present a set of overarching imaging science requirements for UOP. Atmospheric Science: The study of Uranus’ atmosphere is crucial in understanding the planet's energy balance and interior heat flux. Imaging observations map how the atmosphere scatters incident solar radiation. Imaging is key to characterizing planetary-scale energy/material transport though global atmospheric dynamics and local meteorology. Hyperspectral mapping combined with radiative transfer analysis reveals the vertical distribution of clouds and hazes. Chronicling temporal variabilities of atmospheric features is key to understanding the various processes that operate within the dynamic Uranian atmosphere. A comprehensive understanding of Uranus' atmosphere is essential in deciphering the planet's origins and evolution as well as providing insight into the broader field of planetary and exoplanetary science. Magnetospheric Interactions: Imaging science is critical to understand the elusive Uranian aurorae. Mapping the aurorae and their temporal dynamics will reveal the interaction of Uranus’ complex magnetosphere with the solar wind. The apparent decades-long cooling of Uranus’ upper atmosphere is thought to be due to changes in energy input from the overlying magnetosphere, and so mapping and quantifying the auroral evidence for this energy flux is particularly relevant for upper atmospheric science In addition, Uranus’ large moons may generate auroral footprints, which can be used to constrain the planet’s unusual magnetic field structure. Satellite Interiors: Imaging science can address the potential habitability of the larger moons of Uranus by measuring their shapes and rotational states (including librations), which combined with gravity data are crucial to understanding their internal density structure. Satellite Origins: Origin markers such as organics and volatiles may be preserved on the satellite surfaces, which may be sensed by UV/IR mapping. Imaging combined with the moons’ densities may reveal whether the moons formed in Uranus’ circumplanetary disk, rings, or from ejecta of a giant impact on Uranus. Satellite Geology: Imaging investigations, including stereo imaging to obtain topography, will enable constraining each satellite’s geologic history by investigating the distributions and morphologies of impact craters, tectonic and potential cryovolcanic features, and regolith and mass wasting deposits. These records will help unravel the past complex history of orbital resonances that occurred between Uranian satellites, which may have driven geologic activity. Analyses of these features will also point to resurfacing styles and modification processes important for understanding each moon’s thermal evolution, and any present-day geological activity, including potential subsurface deep oceans or possible current activity. Additionally, hyperspectral imaging will enable mapping the surface composition and identifying the potential presence of material that may point to a subsurface ocean, such as ammonia-bearing species. Rings and Small Moons: Imaging observations elucidate the physical processes that contribute to the complex ring-moon system’s inferred unstable state. Imaging surveys will seek smaller moons and other debris that could provide evidence of past collisions, while precise astrometric data of moons will determine the current dynamical state of the system. Many of Uranus' rings are exceptionally narrow, and images of the rings covering a broad range of longitudes, and high-resolution images of features within the rings will reveal how these rings are confined and maintained, as well as illustrating the rings' internal structure and dynamics. Images of the rings and moons obtained at a variety of wavelengths and lighting conditions are also needed to quantify the composition and the size distribution of the small satellites and ring particles.

K M Sayanagi↗

Recurrent Convolutional Deep Neural Networks for Modeling Time-Resolved Wildfire Spread Behavior

The increasing incidence and severity of wildfires underscores the necessity of accurately predicting their behavior. While high-fidelity models derived from first principles offer physical accuracy, they are too computationally expensive for use in real-time fire response. Low-fidelity models sacrifice some physical accuracy and generalizability via the integration of empirical measurements, but enable real-time simulations for operational use in fire response. Machine learning techniques have demonstrated the ability to bridge these objectives by learning first-principles physics while achieving computational speedups. While deep learning approaches have demonstrated the ability to predict wildfire propagation over large time periods, time-resolved fire-spread predictions are needed for active fire management. Here, in this work, we evaluate the ability of deep learning approaches in accurately modeling the time-resolved dynamics of wildfires. We use an autoregressive process in which a convolutional recurrent deep learning model makes predictions that propagate a wildfire over 15 min increments. We apply the model to four simulated datasets of increasing complexity, containing both field fires with homogeneous fuel distribution as well as real-world topologies sampled from the California region of the United States. We show that even after 100 autoregressive predictions representing more than 24 h of simulated fire spread, the resulting models generate stable and realistic propagation dynamics, achieving a Jaccard score between 0.89 and 0.94 when predicting the resulting fire scar. The inference time of the deep learning models are examined and compared, and directions for future work are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A deep learning-based direct forecasting of CO 2 plume migration

Accurate and timely forecasts of CO 2 plume evolution in geological reservoirs are crucial for CO 2 migration detection, leakage risk assessment, and operation decision support. Conventional forecasting usually adopts a two-step strategy, first calibrating reservoir model parameters against observations using iterative inverse modeling (or history matching) and then applying the calibrated model for predictions. This method impedes real-time forecasts due to the heavy computational demand in inverse modeling and may suffer from poor prediction accuracy because of the limited observation data. In this work, we propose a deep learning-based latent space mapping framework to forecast CO 2 plume migration directly by avoiding the inverse modeling. We first use the convolutional autoencoder to map the high-dimensional complex plume extents onto low-dimensional latent space. Next, we use neural networks to learn the relationship between the observation variables and the prediction latent variables. And then for given observation data, we infer the prediction values directly. This one-step direct forecasting is computationally efficient which requires a few number of parallelizable reservoir simulations and it can provide accurate predictions with limited observations by learning the observation-prediction relationship in the reduced dimension. Therefore, our proposed method enables an in-time forecast of dynamic CO 2 plume distributions. In this work, we demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our method in predicting the CO 2 plume migration using four metrics such as plume area, centroid movement distance, and plume spreading in the primary and secondary directions. And the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of plume migration under diverse geological complexities are also accurately quantified.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗