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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

Behavioral and Population Data-Driven Distribution System Load Modeling

Distribution system residential load modeling and analysis for different geographic areas within a utility or an independent system operator territory are critical for enabling small-scale, aggregated distributed energy resources to participate in grid services under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 2222 [1]. In this study, we develop a methodology of modeling residential load profiles in different geographic areas with a focus on human behavior impact. First, we construct a behavior-based load profile model leveraging state-of-the-art appliance models. We simulate human activity and occupancy using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods calibrated with the American Time Use Survey data set. Second, we link our model with cleaned Current Population Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Finally, we populate two sets of 500 households using California and Texas census data, respectively, to perform an initial analysis of the load in different geographic areas with various group features (e.g., different income levels). To distinguish the effect of population behavior differences on aggregated load, we simulate load profiles for both sets assuming fixed physical household parameters and weather data. Analysis shows that average daily load profiles vary significantly by income and income dependency varies by locality.

American Time Use Survey↗

Scale-Dependent Bedform Migration and Deformation in the Physical and Spectral Domains

Multi-scale bathymetries observed in laboratory channels and natural rivers have posed several challenges to the description of bedform geometry and kinematics. To better quantify scale-dependent migration velocity, high resolution spatio-temporal bed evolution data are analyzed using three independent methods: (i) a bedform tracking method that identifies individual bedforms in longitudinal bed elevation profiles, (ii) a cross-correlation based, image matching technique in consecutive bathymetry scans similar to Particle Image Velocimetry, and (iii) two-dimensional frequency-wavenumber spectra marking a dispersion relation between bedform period and length, allowing estimation of Fourier-based, scale-dependent migration velocities. The comparative studies show that the spectral and bedform tracking methods present small differences in the migration velocity of medium-large bedforms. However, significant deviations occur in the small bedforms, mostly due to bedform sheltering or amplified exposure to the flow, which also contribute to their enhanced scale-dependent deformation. The analysis also shows that some form of scale separation is needed to extract the large and slowly migrating bedforms as they are masked by secondary features when several bedform orders coexist. Bathymetric Image Velocimetry reasonably estimates the averaged migration velocity and exhibits potential to study relations between spanwise bed surface velocity and local bedform kinematics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Development, Monitoring, and Control of Fracture Thermal Energy Storage (FTES) in Crystalline Rock Formations (DEMO-FTES) (CRADA Final Report)

The DEMO-FTES project sought to demonstrate the thermal efficiency of fracture thermal energy storage (FTES) through numerical simulations, laboratory and meso-scale field tests. A detailed dimensional and scaling analysis was performed to identify key parameters and how they can be most effectively scaled to the laboratory and decameter scale. Numerical models were developed and used for three purposes: 1. Before field experiments, numerical modelling can be used to estimate fracture properties based on previous data from the EGS Collab experiment and then predict thermal hydrological behaviors of the fracture system with hot water injection/withdrawal, therefore, help to design the experiments (e.g., to decide the duration of the cycles based on the flow rate the pump can provide, and the estimated fracture properties); 2. After the field experiment, to estimate the system properties during the experiment (as the size and shape of a fracture could change over time), and understand why system performance is different than what has been predicted, i.e., to help understand the meso-scale test; and, 3. To model the lab experiments and estimate fracture properties and storage efficiency. Ultimately, the experiment and numerical models could shed light on the processes and uncertainty happening during fracture activation and help understand the scaling between lab and field test, and finally, the design and optimization of potential fracture thermal energy storage systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Weak Scale Supersymmetry Emergent from the String Landscape

Superstring flux compactifications can stabilize all moduli while leading to an enormous number of vacua solutions, each leading to different 4−d laws of physics. While the string landscape provides at present the only plausible explanation for the size of the cosmological constant, it may also predict the form of weak scale supersymmetry which is expected to emerge. Rather general arguments suggest a power-law draw to large soft terms, but these are subject to an anthropic selection of a not-too-large value for the weak scale. The combined selection allows one to compute relative probabilities for the emergence of supersymmetric models from the landscape. Models with weak scale naturalness appear most likely to emerge since they have the largest parameter space on the landscape. For finetuned models such as high-scale SUSY or split SUSY, the required weak scale finetuning shrinks their parameter space to tiny volumes, making them much less likely to appear compared to natural models. Probability distributions for sparticle and Higgs masses from natural models show a preference for Higgs mass mh∼125 GeV, with sparticles typically beyond the present LHC limits, in accord with data. From these considerations, we briefly describe how natural SUSY is expected to be revealed at future LHC upgrades. This article is a contribution to the Special Edition of the journal Entropy, honoring Paul Frampton on his 80th birthday.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Taylor limit studies for local helicity injection plasma startup

Solenoid-free tokamak startup techniques can simplify the design and reduce the cost of tokamak-based fusion energy systems. The newly commissioned Pegasus-III spherical tokamak provides a dedicated platform for developing a scalable solenoid-free startup approach. Local helicity injection (LHI) is one promising technique being developed on Pegasus-III, which uses compact edge current sources to drive open field line current I inj that is redistributed via helicity-conserving instabilities to initiate tokamak plasmas. These instabilities relax the system toward a minimum energy state described by Taylor relaxation theory. This relaxation process imposes a global current limit for LHI plasmas, referred to as the Taylor limit I TL ⁠, which can dictate the plasma current I p evolution. Experiments on Pegasus and Pegasus-III show that increasing this limit leads to more effective utilization of the available helicity input and higher I p plasmas. Initial Pegasus-III experiments have verified the expected I TL $\varpropto$ ( I inj B T ) 1/2 scaling holds for B T and I inj up to 0.3 T on axis and 12 kA ⁠, respectively. Additionally, data from different injector arrays show that the width of the injector aperture directly alters I TL and can be leveraged for future injector design optimization. Throughout these scaling studies, discharges were overdriven at I p = I TL by providing excess helicity input. Intermittent bursts of n = 1 magnetic activity consistent with large-scale reconnection events occurred more often as the system was increasingly overdriven leading to a flattening of the λ = μ 0 J ∥ / |B| profile, where J ∥ is the parallel current density.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Novel Spatio-Temporal Regime Tracking Method for Impact Simulations

In this proposal, we present a novel method of tracking the rheological regimes activated during impact cratering events that will allow researchers to gain new insights into cratering mechanics. Rheology describes the stress-strain response of rocks to different conditions. Planetary impact cratering events often occur on too large of a scale to be feasibly captured in controlled experiments. Instead, these dynamic events are primarily studied using multi-physics codes equipped with complex material models that enable calculations of the impact event at scale. However, determining which physical processes are required for the problem of interest is challenging. Because the dominant rheological regimes change with space and time during crater formation, it is difficult to link numerical simulations with observable features of craters at the end of the event. The basis of this work is the implementation of numerical flags that track the activation of each rheological regime throughout impact simulations. We demonstrate this with the ‘Rock Model’ implemented in the CTH shock-physics code. We will use this rheology tracking method to ’zoom in’ on a specific region within an event and track the conditions the rock experiences over time. This work will develop community benchmarks to validate and distribute our implemented rheological models. We will focus on improving the melt models used by the planetary impact modeling community by developing an EOS-aware rheological transition from solid to melt. Through analysis of cell and tracer-particle based tracking data, we will study the effects of different rheologies on modeled outcomes, particularly on the volume and distributions of impacts melts. We will also use this method to link observable features with the rheological mechanisms responsible for them. The deliverables (peer-reviewed papers) from the proposed work are (i) tests of the implemented rheologic processes and demonstrations of the tracking flags; (ii) the first calculations of the spatio-temporal evolution of the dominant rheologies during impact cratering events; and (iii) application to delivery of impactor iron during basin-scale impacts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Gumby: Quantifying multi-modal model resiliency

With the rise of cheap data and sensors, more use cases are emerging for multi-input models. Research has shown that including multiple data modalities can improve performance, suggesting that deep learning models can successfully learn to leverage complementary information from different modalities. However, this improved predictive power comes with unanticipated costs: additional inputs change model resiliency and expand the threat space for adversarial attacks. We first provide theoretical underpinnings for how adversarial success scales with input dimension. We then characterize the performance of a suite of multispectral deep learning models with different fusion approaches, quantify their relative reliance on different input bands, and evaluate their robustness to naturalistic and adversarial image corruptions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Effective Li-Ion Transport Quantification in Composite Cathodes for All-Solid-State Batteries via Multiscale Modeling and Experiments

The tortuosity factor of composite cathodes significantly affects the rate performance of all-solid-state batteries (ASSBs) and has significant differences from systems with liquid electrolytes. Here, in this work, we report a simulation-experiment combined approach that quantifies the effective Li-ion transport in an ASSB composite cathode, which links tortuosity factor on ∼ μm scale to terminal voltage during cycling at the cell level (on ∼ cm scale). Two independent approaches of tortuosity factor quantification are considered: fitting electrochemical cycling data and verifying at different cycling rates and calculating from segmented tomography images, with the tortuosity factor quantified from both methods reaching self-consistency. The simulated terminal voltage using the quantified tortuosity factor has a small relative error of <3% compared to the experimental measurements. We find a significantly reduced value of the Bruggeman exponent of the catholyte phase (1.75), and using shape analysis, we show that rod-shaped catholyte particles play an important role in lowering the tortuosity factor.

Yao, Archie Mingze [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, ↗

Calcium-organic matter fouling in nanofiltration: Synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence and absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy for speciation

Calcium (Ca)-enhanced organic matter (OM) fouling of nanofiltration (NF) membranes leads to reduced flux during desalination and requires frequent cleaning. Fouling mechanisms are not fully understood, which limits the development of targeted fouling control methods. This study employed synchrotron-based X-ray fluorescence (XRF) and X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy to quantify the spatial distribution and mass of Ca deposition as well as changes in the Ca coordination environment characteristic of specific fouling mechanisms, respectively. Bench-scale filtration experiments were performed using feed solutions containing Ca and ten different types of organic matter (OM), as well as the common scalants, calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) and calcium sulfate (CaSO 4 ). Osmotic backwash (OB) was performed at regular intervals for fouling control. Ca-OM aggregation resulted in greater flux decline and lower flux recovery during OB than Ca conditioning of membranes followed by filtration of feed solution with OM. Linear combination fitting (LCF) of XANES absorption spectra from fouled membranes indicated that Ca-OM aggregation preferentially occurred for OM types that exhibited both high carboxylic group and negative charge density. Consequently, these OM types exhibited greater deposition of Ca and TOC on the membrane surface when compared to other OM types. For the coexistence of scalants and OM, Ca speciation within the fouling layer was characteristic of both Ca bound to the membrane (i.e. potential bridging, charge screening) as well as Ca-OM aggregation and deposition mechanisms, while a range of crystal polymorphs were observed to occur simultaneously. XRF and XANES represent powerful tools for the elucidation of NF fouling mechanisms by quantification of Ca deposition as well as Ca speciation. Fouling control methods should target OM types with high carboxyl group density and negative charge to neutralize or eliminate interactions with Ca.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Transition between protein-like and polymer-like dynamic behavior: Internal friction in unfolded apomyoglobin depends on denaturing conditions

Equilibrium dynamics of different folding intermediates and denatured states is strongly connected to the exploration of the conformational space on the nanosecond time scale and might have implications in understanding protein folding. For the first time, the same protein system apomyoglobin has been investigated using neutron spin-echo spectroscopy in different states: native-like, partially folded (molten globule) and completely unfolded, following two different unfolding paths: using acid or guanidinium chloride (GdmCl). While the internal dynamics of the native-like state can be understood using normal mode analysis based on high resolution structural information of myoglobin, for the unfolded and even for the molten globule states, models from polymer science are employed. The Zimm model accurately describes the slowly-relaxing, expanded GdmCl-denaturated state, ignoring the individuality of the different aminoacid side chain. The dynamics of the acid unfolded and molten globule state are similar in the framework of the Zimm model with internal friction, where the chains still interact and hinder each other: the first Zimm relaxation time is as large as the internal friction time. Transient formation of secondary structure elements in the acid unfolded and presence of α-helices in the molten globule state lead to internal friction to a similar extent.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Detection of Extreme Phenomena in the Stable Boundary Layer over the Amazonian Forest

We apply different methods for detection of extreme phenomena (EP) in air-turbulent time series measured in the nocturnal boundary layer above the Amazon forest. The methods used were: (a) a Morlet complex wavelet transform, which is often used in analysis of non-linear application processes. Through the use of the wavelet, it is possible to observe a phase singularity that involves a strong interaction between an extensive range of scales; (b) recurrence plot tests, which were used to identify a sudden change between different stable atmospheric states. (c) statistical analysis of early-warning signals, which verify simultaneous increases in the autocorrelation function and in the variance in the state variable; and (d) analysis of wind speed versus turbulent kinetic energy to identify different turbulent regimes in the stable boundary layer. We found it is adequate to use a threshold to classify the cases of strong turbulence regime, as a result of the occurrence of EP in the tropical atmosphere. All methods used corroborate and indicate synergy between events that culminate in what we classify as EP of the stable boundary layer above the tropical forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatial Optimization of Multiscale Biorefinery Deployment for a Diversified Bioeconomy in the United States

Strategic biorefinery siting is critical for a diversified bioeconomy, yet industry, policy, and research often focus on either large-scale biofuel plants or smaller-scale specialty bioproduct facilities, with limited coordination across scales. We address this gap by modeling biorefinery deployment spanning a 28-fold difference in capacity. We developed an open-source, spatially explicit framework integrating techno-economic analysis with logistics and refinery cost surrogate models to evaluate multiscale miscanthus-derived biorefineries across the rainfed U.S. for the production of ethanol, succinic acid, lactic acid, potassium sorbate, and acrylic acid. Overall costs change little as feedstock density increases, while transport distances decrease by ∼30 to 67% (∼100 km) and siting flexibility improves. Specifically, a 5-fold feedstock density increase (2% to 10% of suitable land) reduces minimum selling prices by <10% (e.g., 0.27 USD·gal –1 for ethanol). This limited economic sensitivity suggests dense planting is not required for competitive deployment, particularly for smaller-scale facilities. Representing collection areas as irregular rather than circular expands the feasible space under low-density scenarios. While large-scale refineries anchor regional supply chains, smaller facilities retain spatial flexibility even when large refineries are established. These findings highlight the importance of spatial representation and multiscale coordination for robust, regionally tailored biomanufacturing networks to advance renewable carbon integration without extensive land conversion.

biorefinery siting↗

Sizing Small-Scale Renewable Energy Systems for the Navajo Nation and Rural Communities

The Navajo Nation consists of about 55,000 residential homes spread across 27,000 square miles of trust land in the Southwest region of the United States. The Navajo Tribal Utility Authority (NTUA) reports that approximately 15,000 homes on the reservation do not have electricity due to the high costs of connecting rural homes located miles from utility distribution lines. In order to get these rural homeowners access electricity, NTUA and other Native owned companies are examining small-scale renewable energy systems to provide power for necessary usage such as lighting and refrigeration. The goal of this study is to evaluate the current renewable deployment efforts and provide additional considerations for photovoltaic (PV) systems that will optimize performance and improve efficiency to reduce costs. There are three case studies presented in different locations on the Navajo Nation with varying solar resource and energy load requirements. For each location, an assessment is completed that includes environmental parameters of the site- specific landscape and a system performance analysis of an off-grid residential PV system. The technical process, repeated for each location, demonstrates how the variance and uniqueness of each household can impact the system requirements after optimizations are applied. Therefore, the household variabilities and difference in locations must be considered. The differing results of each case study suggests additional analysis is needed for designing small-scale PV systems that takes a home-land-family specific approach to allow for better efficiency and more flexibility for future solar innovations to be considered for overall cost reductions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Role of Kinetic Instabilities and Waves in Collisionless Magnetic Reconnection

Magnetic reconnection converts magnetic field energy into particle energy by breaking and reconnecting magnetic field lines. Magnetic reconnection is a kinetic process that generates a wide variety of kinetic waves via wave-particle interactions. Kinetic waves have been proposed to play an important role in magnetic reconnection in collisionless plasmas by, for example, contributing to anomalous resistivity and diffusion, particle heating, and transfer of energy between different particle populations. These waves range from below the ion cyclotron frequency to above the electron plasma frequency and from ion kinetic scales down to electron Debye length scales. This review aims to describe the progress made in understanding the relationship between magnetic reconnection and kinetic waves. We focus on the waves in different parts of the reconnection region, namely, the diffusion region, separatrices, outflow regions, and jet fronts. Particular emphasis is placed on the recent observations from the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft and numerical simulations, which have substantially increased the understanding of the interplay between kinetic waves and reconnection. Some of the ongoing questions related to waves and reconnection are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A unified framework of stabilized finite element method for solving the Boltzmann transport equation

This paper presents a unified framework of stabilized finite element method for solving the Boltzmann transport equation. Unlike the traditional Petrov-Galerkin finite element method which modifies the test function to construct the stabilization term, we derive the stabilization methods from the standard Galerkin weak form with Sub-grid scale model. The basic idea of this method is to decompose the unknowns into its numerical solution and residual, with an approximation for the residual and embeds it in the Galerkin weak form to yield a stabilized variational formula. Different approximations of the residual lead to different stabilization methods, all the frequently used stabilized methods, including the Streamline Upwinding Petrov-Galerkin (SUPG) method, Galerkin/Least-Square (GLS) method, and Algebraic Sub-Grid Scale (ASGS) method can be obtained from this framework. The similarities and differences of the different approximations are compared in this paper. The numerical results show that the behaviors of the different methods area similar with the same stabilization parameter, and all these stabilized techniques can obtain a correct and stable solution. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Probing cold nuclear matter with energy correlators

The future electron-ion collider (EIC) will produce the first-ever high energy collisions between electrons and a wide range of nuclei, opening a new era in the study of cold nuclear matter. Quarks and gluons produced in these collisions will propagate through the dense nuclear matter of nuclei, imprinting its structure into subtle correlations in the energy flux of final state hadrons. In this article, we apply recent developments from the field of jet substructure, namely the energy correlator observables, to decode these correlations and provide a new window into nuclear structure. The energy correlators provide a calibrated probe of the scale dependence of vacuum quantum chromodynamics (QCD), enabling medium modifications to be imaged and interpreted as a function of scale. Using the eHIJING parton shower to simulate electron-nucleus collisions, we demonstrate that the size of the nucleus is imprinted as an angular scale in the correlators, with a magnitude that is visible for realistic EIC kinematics. We can observe the size difference between the proposed EIC nuclear targets 3 He, 4 He, 12 C, 40 Ca, 64 Cu, 197 Au, and 238 U, showing that the energy correlators can image femtometer length scales using asymptotic energy flux. Our approach offers a unified view of jet substructure across collider experiments, and provides numerous new theoretical tools to unravel the complex dynamics of QCD in extreme environments, both hot and cold.

Electron-ion collisions↗

Bench-Scale Testing of a High Efficiency, Ultra-Compact Process for Pre-Combustion CO 2 Capture (Final Report)

The overarching objective of this bench-scale study is to field-validate the technical feasibility of a membrane- and adsorption-enhanced water gas shift (WGS) reaction process that employs a carbon molecular sieve (CMS) membrane reactor (MR) followed by an adsorption reactor (AR) for pre-combustion CO 2 capture while demonstrating progress towards achievement of the overall performance goals of CO 2 capture with 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity (COE) of 30% less than the baseline capture approaches. The main goal of this bench-scale project is to advance the proposed MR-AR transformative CO 2 capture technology to a sufficient maturity level so that our present industrial partners (M&PT and Worley) can potentially adapt the technology for further small pilot-scale testing. The project began at TRL 4, as the system prototype had already been validated in the laboratory on simulated syngas (as part of project DE-FE0026423). The project ended at TRL 5, via scaling-up of the prototype system and testing it on actual syngas at a host site (CAER at the University of Kentucky (UKy)). The project was carried-out in two different phases: In Phase I (during BP1 of the project), the team designed, constructed, and assembled the bench-scale experimental MR-AR system, prepared the membranes, adsorbents, and catalysts, tested the bench-scale unit with simulated syngas to validate functionality, and prepared a preliminary TEA of the technology. In Phase II (during BP2 of the project), the team installed the unit at the test site at the UKy site and completed all utility connections and hookups, field-tested the novel MR-AR process in the bench-scale system using real syngas, collected and analyzed experimental data, and completed a detailed TEA of the technology. A key aim of the project was to identify and address the technical and process risks and to generate information to advance the technology to the next stage of development. All project milestones and success criteria were met. Specifically, the team: (i) designed, constructed and assembled a bench scale system that handled 1 – 5 scfm syngas and tested its functionality with simulated syngas; (ii) prepared high performance CMS membrane tubes (ID: 3.5 mm, OD: 5.7 mm, 30” long) that meet the target H 2 permeance ( > 1 m 3 /(m 2 .hr.bar) or (> 370.3 GPU)) and a target H 2 /CO selectivity >80 at the relevant temperature (up to 300oC) and pressure conditions (up to 25 bar) with a <10% decline in performance over each 250 hr. testing period (iii) procured commercial sour-shift catalyst in sufficient quantity and prepared up to 10 kg of pelletized adsorbent for use at relevant conditions (250oC 2.5wt.% and target sorbent attrition rate < 0.2; (iv) installed the bench-scale unit at the test site (UKy) and tested the MR-AR technology using real syngas for over 250 hr. for both static and flow experiments; (v) updated the TEA analysis based on bench-scale data and met CO 2 capture goals of 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity 30% less than baseline capture approaches. The CMS membranes, HTC adsorbents and catalysts employed all exhibited very robust and stable performance during the long-term run (over a >250 hr live syngas run). Furthermore, the proposed MR-AR IGCC system achieved a LCOE with a N 2 sale price of $\$$ 30/ton, with N 2 compression (no N 2 compression) of 101.2 $\$$/MWh (95.3 $\$$/MWh), which represents a 29.8% (33.9%) LCOE reduction in the baseline IGCC with carbon capture of 144.2 $\$$/MWh. The proposed MR-AR IGCC delivers a CO 2 capture cost of 44.8 $\$$/tonne (39.9 $\$$/tonne) vs 98.1 $\$$/tonne of the baseline capture case and a net power production of 586 MWe (623 MWe) vs 556 MWe of the baseline capture case.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Accessing subnuclear fluctuations and saturation with multiplicity dependent J/ψ production in p+p and p+Pb collisions

We study the production of J/ψ vector mesons as a function of charged hadron multiplicity in p+p and p+Pb collisions at LHC energies. We employ the color glass condensate framework, using running coupling Balitsky-Kovchegov evolved dipole amplitudes, to compute gluon and cc¯-pair production. We use fragmentation functions to obtain charged hadrons, and explore two different hadronization schemes for the J/ψ: non-relativistic quantum chromodynamics and the improved color evaporation model. In our framework, event-by-event multiplicity fluctuations of both hadrons and J/ψ are driven by geometric and saturation scale normalization fluctuations. Studying the correlation between J/ψ and hadron multiplicity, we show that the characteristic difference between forward and backward rapidity in p+Pb collisions is a result of different degrees of saturation probed at different rapidities. We demonstrate that experimental data on heavy-flavor production as a function of event activity provide stringent constraints on the fluctuating proton structure

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗