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SOLPS-ITER modeling of a dedicated divertor for negative triangularity operation on DIII-D

The design of a new dedicated divertor for negative triangularity (NT) operation on DIII-D with neutral baffles and pumping is informed by SOLPS-ITER transport modeling. This dedicated NT divertor is the latest step in a progression of NT shapes with various divertor characteristics explored on DIII-D, including NT shapes at reduced triangularity and a campaign with stronger shaping that included new armored components on the outboard side. SOLPS simulations played a key role in these divertor designs. Interpretive simulations, using cross-field diffusivities constrained by experimental data in the NT Shelf shape were used to inform the design of the 2023 armor campaign components. A similar procedure used armor campaign data to predict conditions for the dedicated NT divertor. The predictive simulations were used to assess the divertor fluxes, detachment threshold, pumped flux, and neutral leakage. For the dedicated NT divertor, SOLPS simulations and two-point-modeling were used to show the relative impact of magnetic topology (mainly longer connection length) and divertor closure on the divertor conditions relative to the armor campaign. It is predicted that the dedicated NT divertor reaches detachment (measured by target ion flux rollover) at a lower upstream density (≈(1.75−−2.4)×1⁢019m−3) as compared to the armor campaign shape. For the preliminary design geometry, divertor closure reduces the neutral leakage by ≈10%. Parametric optimization indicating further ≈20%–60% improvement in the leakage flux and recycled flux crossing the pump entrance is possible for relatively minor changes to the divertor and baffle layout.

Lore, Jeremy [ORNL] (ORCID:000000029192465X)↗

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere. Part 2: Validation of Large-Scale Transport and Evaluation of Climate Response

Here we examine the large‐scale transport characteristics of the new ``Middle Atmosphere" NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model (E2.2). First we evaluate the stratospheric transport circulation in historical atmosphere‐only simulations integrated with interactive trace gas and aerosol chemistry. Compared to lower vertical resolution model versions, E2.2 exhibits improved tropical ascent and older stratospheric mean ages that are more consistent with observed values. In the troposphere, poleward transport to the Arctic and interhemispheric mean ages in E2.2 are comparable to models participating in the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. In addition to validating E2.2 we also assess its ``transport sensitivity" using the coupled atmosphere‐ocean abrupt 4xCO2 and transient 1%CO2 simulations submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, along with a 2xCO2 simulation used to evaluate the linearity of the transport circulation's response to increased CO2. We show that decreases (increases) in a stratospheric mean age (idealized surface loss) tracer scale linearly with increased lower stratospheric upwelling, which also increases linearly with warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Abrupt 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 experiments constrained with (fixed) pre‐industrial SSTs are also used to quantify the relative importance of rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks to the transport circulation responses in the model. Finally, sensitivity experiments are presented to illustrate the impact of changes in the convective parameterization on stratospheric transport.

GISS Model E2.2↗

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices

Climate model simulations are an important source of information about our planet’s climate system and also enable informed decision-making under different future scenarios. As a new archive of results from the next generation of climate models is anticipated to become available with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), the need to develop efficient and robust methods to evaluate models is paramount. Observations are an integral part of model evaluation, providing a means to quantify and understand the degree to which climate models can faithfully reproduce Earth system processes. Such analysis is critical for constraining climate projections, identifying areas of focus for model development, and assisting analysts in deciphering the utility of models for specific applications. Observations of Earth system come from a diversity of sources, span different space–time domains, and are produced by different communities, and each dataset features different data structures and formats, metadata standards, and its own unique uncertainties. Uncertainties in an observational dataset may stem from gaps in temporal and spatial coverage, instrumentation errors, or assumptions in retrieval and processing methods. How then does one ensure that observational data are ready for use and utilized in the most appropriate way for robust, rapid, and routine climate model evaluation? The CMIP7 Model Benchmarking Task Team with input from the broader climate modeling, model evaluation, and observational data communities present a vision and considerations for best practices toward the optimal and appropriate use of observational data to support next-generation climate model evaluation.

Climate models↗

Scalable Circuit Cutting and Scheduling in a Resource-constrained and Distributed Quantum System

Despite quantum computing's rapid development, current systems remain limited in practical applications due to their limited qubit count and quality. Various technologies, such as superconducting, trapped ions, and neutral atom quantum computing technologies are progressing towards a fault tolerant era, however they all face a diverse set of challenges in scalability and control. Recent efforts have focused on multi-node quantum systems that connect multiple smaller quantum devices to execute larger circuits. Future demonstrations hope to use quantum channels to couple systems, however current demonstrations can leverage classical communication with circuit cutting techniques. This involves cutting large circuits into smaller subcircuits and reconstructing them post-execution. However, existing cutting methods are hindered by lengthy search times as the number of qubits and gates increases. Additionally, they often fail to effectively utilize the resources of various worker configurations in a multi-node system. To address these challenges, we introduce FitCut, a novel approach that transforms quantum circuits into weighted graphs and utilizes a community-based, bottom-up approach to cut circuits according to resource constraints, e.g., qubit counts, on each worker. FitCut also includes a scheduling algorithm that optimizes resource utilization across workers. Implemented with Qiskit and evaluated extensively, FitCut significantly outperforms the Qiskit Circuit Knitting Toolbox, reducing time costs by factors ranging from 3 to 2000 and improving resource utilization rates by up to 3.88 times on the worker side, achieving a system-wide improvement of 2.86 times.

Kan, Shuwen [Fordham University]↗

Scientific challenges to characterizing the wind resource in the marine atmospheric boundary layer

Abstract. With the increasing level of offshore wind energy investment, it is correspondingly important to be able to accurately characterize the wind resource in terms of energy potential as well as operating conditions affecting wind plant performance, maintenance, and lifespan. Accurate resource assessment at a particular site supports investment decisions. Following construction, accurate wind forecasts are needed to support efficient power markets and integration of wind power with the electrical grid. To optimize the design of wind turbines, it is necessary to accurately describe the environmental characteristics, such as precipitation and waves, that erode turbine surfaces and generate structural loads as a complicated response to the combined impact of shear, atmospheric turbulence, and wave stresses. Despite recent considerable progress both in improvements to numerical weather prediction models and in coupling these models to turbulent flows within wind plants, major challenges remain, especially in the offshore environment. Accurately simulating the interactions among winds, waves, wakes, and their structural interactions with offshore wind turbines requires accounting for spatial (and associated temporal) scales from O(1 m) to O(100 km). Computing capabilities for the foreseeable future will not be able to resolve all of these scales simultaneously, necessitating continuing improvement in subgrid-scale parameterizations within highly nonlinear models. In addition, observations to constrain and validate these models, especially in the rotor-swept area of turbines over the ocean, remains largely absent. Thus, gaining sufficient understanding of the physics of atmospheric flow within and around wind plants remains one of the grand challenges of wind energy, particularly in the offshore environment. This paper provides a review of prominent scientific challenges to characterizing the offshore wind resource using as examples phenomena that occur in the rapidly developing wind energy areas off the United States. Such phenomena include horizontal temperature gradients that lead to strong vertical stratification; consequent features such as low-level jets and internal boundary layers; highly nonstationary conditions, which occur with both extratropical storms (e.g., nor'easters) and tropical storms; air–sea interaction, including deformation of conventional wind profiles by the wave boundary layer; and precipitation with its contributions to leading-edge erosion of wind turbine blades. The paper also describes the current state of modeling and observations in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and provides specific recommendations for filling key current knowledge gaps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

Joint interpretation of disparate geophysical datasets helps to reduce drawbacks that can result from analyzing them individually. The Apollo seismic network was situated on the lunar nearside surface in a roughly equilateral triangle having sides approximately 1000 km long, with stations 12/14 nearly co‐located at one corner. Due to this limited geographical extent, near‐surface ray coverage from moonquakes is low, but increases with depth. In comparison, gravity surveys and their resulting gravity anomaly maps have traditionally offered optimal resolution at crustal depths. Gravimetric maps and seismic data sets are therefore well suited to joint inversion, since the complementary information reduces inherent model ambiguity. Previous joint inversions of the Apollo seismic data (seismic phase arrival times) and Clementine‐ or Lunar Prospector‐derived gravity data (mass and moment of inertia) attempted to recover the subsurface structure of the Moon by focusing on hypothetical lunar compositions that explore the density/velocity relationship. These efforts typically search for the best fitting thermodynamically calculated velocity/density model, allowing variables like core size, velocity, and/or composition to vary freely. Seismic velocity profiles previously derived from the Apollo seismic data through inversion of travel times vary both in the depth of the crust and mantle layers, and the seismic velocities and densities assigned to those layers. The lunar mass and moment of inertia likewise only constrain gross variations in the density profile beyond that of a uniform density sphere. As a result, composition and structure models previously obtained by jointly inverting these data retain the original uncertainties inherent in the input data sets. We will perform a joint inversion of Apollo seismic delay times and gravity data collected by the GRAIL lunar gravity mission, in order to recover seismic velocities and density as a function of latitude, longitude, and depth within the Moon. We will relate density to seismic velocity using a linear relationship that is allowed to be depth‐dependent. The corresponding coefficient (B) can reflect a variety of material properties that vary with depth, including temperature and composition. The inversion seeks to recover the set of density, velocity, and B‐coefficient perturbations that minimize (in a least‐squares sense) the difference between the observed and calculated data.

Weber, Renee C.↗

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

Joint interpretation of disparate geophysical datasets helps reduce drawbacks that can result from analyzing them individually. The Apollo seismic network was situated on the lunar nearside surface in a roughly equilateral triangle having sides approximately 1000 km long, with stations 12/14 nearly co-located at one corner. Due to this limited geographical extent, near-surface ray coverage from moonquakes is low, but increases with depth. In comparison, gravity surveys and their resulting gravity anomaly maps have traditionally offered optimal resolution at crustal depths. Gravimetric maps and seismic data sets are therefore well suited to joint inversion, since the complementary information reduces inherent model ambiguity. Previous joint inversions of the Apollo seismic data (seismic phase arrival times) and Clementine- or Lunar Prospector-derived gravity data (mass and moment of inertia) attempted to recover the subsurface structure of the Moon by focusing on hypothetical lunar compositions that explored the density/velocity relationship. These efforts typically searched for the best fitting thermodynamically calculated velocity/density model, and allowed variables like core size, velocity, and/or composition to vary freely. Seismic velocity profiles derived from the Apollo seismic data through travel time inversion vary both in the depth of the crust and mantle layers, and the seismic velocities and densities assigned to those layers. The lunar mass and moment of inertia likewise only constrain gross variations in the density profile beyond that of a uniform density sphere. As a result, composition and structure models previously obtained by jointly inverting these data retain the original uncertainties inherent in the input data sets. We perform a joint inversion of Apollo seismic delay times and gravity data collected by the GRAIL lunar gravity mission, in order to recover seismic velocity and density as a function of latitude, longitude, and depth within the Moon. We relate density (p) to seismic velocity (v) using a depth-dependent linear relationship. The corresponding coefficient (B) can reflect a variety of material properties, including temperature and composition. The inversion seeks to recover the set of p, v, and B perturbations that minimize (in a least-squares sense) the difference between the observed and calculated data.

Weber, Renee C.↗

Life at the Common Denominator: Mechanistic and Quantitative Biology for the Earth and Space Sciences

The remarkable challenges and possibilities of the coming few decades will compel the biogeochemical and astrobiological sciences to characterize the interactions between biology and its environment in a fundamental, mechanistic, and quantitative fashion. The clear need for integrative and scalable biology-environment models is exemplified in the Earth sciences by the challenge of effectively addressing anthropogenic global change, and in the space sciences by the challenge of mounting a well-constrained yet sufficiently adaptive and inclusive search for life beyond Earth. Our understanding of the life-planet interaction is still, however, largely empirical. A variety of approaches seek to move from empirical to mechanistic descriptions. One approach focuses on the relationship between biology and energy, which is at once universal (all life requires energy), unique (life manages energy flow in a fashion not seen in abiotic systems), and amenable to characterization and quantification in thermodynamic terms. Simultaneously, a focus on energy flow addresses a critical point of interface between life and its geological, chemical, and physical environment. Characterizing and quantifying this relationship for life on Earth will support the development of integrative and predictive models for biology-environment dynamics. Understanding this relationship at its most fundamental level holds potential for developing concepts of habitability and biosignatures that can optimize astrobiological exploration strategies and are extensible to all life.

Hoehler, Tori M.↗

Disordered Rocksalts as High‐Energy and Earth‐Abundant Li‐Ion Cathodes

To address the growing demand for energy and support the shift toward transportation electrification and intermittent renewable energy, there is an urgent need for low‐cost, energy‐dense electrical storage. Research on Li‐ion electrode materials has predominantly focused on ordered materials with well‐defined lithium diffusion channels, limiting cathode design to resource‐constrained Ni‐ and Co‐based oxides and lower‐energy polyanion compounds. Recently, disordered rocksalts with lithium excess (DRX) have demonstrated high capacity and energy density when lithium excess and/or local ordering allow statistical percolation of lithium sites through the structure. This cation disorder can be induced by high temperature synthesis or mechanochemical synthesis methods for a broad range of compositions. DRX oxides and oxyfluorides containing Earth‐abundant transition metals have been prepared using various synthesis routes, including solid‐state, molten‐salt, and sol‐gel reactions. This review outlines DRX design principles and explains the effect of synthesis conditions on cation disorder and short‐range cation ordering (SRO), which determines the cycling stability and rate capability. In addition, strategies to enhance Li transport and capacity retention with Mn‐rich DRX possessing partial spinel‐like ordering are discussed. Finally, the review considers the optimization of carbon and electrolyte in DRX materials and addresses key challenges and opportunities for commercializing DRX cathodes.

Li-ion batteries↗

Lunar Outpost Life Support Architecture Study Based on a High Mobility Exploration Scenario

As scenarios for lunar surface exploration and habitation continue to evolve within NASA s Constellation program, so must studies of optimal life support system architectures and technologies. This paper presents results of a life support architecture study based on a 2009 NASA scenario known as Scenario 12. Scenario 12 represents a consolidation of ideas from earlier NASA scenarios and includes an outpost near the Lunar South Pole comprised of three larger fixed surface elements and four attached pressurized rovers. The scenario places a high emphasis on surface mobility, with planning assuming that all four crewmembers spend roughly 50% of the time away from the outpost on 3-14 day excursions in two of the pressurized rovers. Some of the larger elements can also be mobilized for longer duration excursions. This emphasis on mobility poses a significant challenge for a regenerative life support system in terms of cost-effective waste collection and resource recovery across multiple elements, including rovers with very constrained infrastructure resources. The current study considers pressurized rovers as part of a distributed outpost life support architecture in both stand-alone and integrated configurations. A range of architectures are examined reflecting different levels of closure and distributed functionality. Different lander propellant scavenging options are also considered involving either initial conversion of residual oxygen and hydrogen propellants to water or initial direct oxygen scavenging. Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the sensitivity of results to volatile high-impact mission variables, including the quantity of residual lander propellants available for scavenging, the fraction of crew time away from the outpost on excursions, total extravehicular activity hours, and habitat leakage. Architectures are evaluated by estimating surpluses or deficits of water and oxygen per 180-day mission and differences in fixed and 10-year-total equivalent system mass (ESM) relative to a reference case. Results are presented based on current assumptions for Scenario 12 and based on Monte Carlo simulations with assumed probability distributions for the high-impact mission variables. The calculated probability of no water or oxygen resupply from Monte Carlo simulations provides a quantitative measure of system robustness that can be used for cost/benefit analyses to identify leading architecture candidates. Areas of technology improvement that are likely to have a significant impact are also suggested.

Lange, Kevin E.↗

Optimization of Microphone Locations for Acoustic Liner Impedance Eduction

Two impedance eduction methods are explored for use with data acquired in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube. The first is an indirect method based on the convected Helmholtz equation, and the second is a direct method based on the Kumaresan and Tufts algorithm. Synthesized no-flow data, with random jitter to represent measurement error, are used to evaluate a number of possible microphone locations. Statistical approaches are used to evaluate the suitability of each set of microphone locations. Given the computational resources required, small sample statistics are employed for the indirect method. Since the direct method is much less computationally intensive, a Monte Carlo approach is employed to gather its statistics. A comparison of results achieved with full and reduced sets of microphone locations is used to determine which sets of microphone locations are acceptable. For the indirect method, each array that includes microphones in all three regions (upstream and downstream hard wall sections, and liner test section) provides acceptable results, even when as few as eight microphones are employed. The best arrays employ microphones well away from the leading and trailing edges of the liner. The direct method is constrained to use microphones opposite the liner. Although a number of arrays are acceptable, the optimum set employs 14 microphones positioned well away from the leading and trailing edges of the liner. The selected sets of microphone locations are also evaluated with data measured for ceramic tubular and perforate-over-honeycomb liners at three flow conditions (Mach 0.0, 0.3, and 0.5). They compare favorably with results attained using all 53 microphone locations. Although different optimum microphone locations are selected for the two impedance eduction methods, there is significant overlap. Thus, the union of these two microphone arrays is preferred, as it supports usage of both methods. This array contains 3 microphones in the upstream hard wall section, 14 microphones opposite the liner, and 3 microphones in the downstream hard wall section.

Jones, M. G.↗

Development of Integrated Mechanical Pods

This presentation highlights early wins, updated progress, and upcoming developments on ‘national-scale shared development platform’ for rapid prototyping, testing and validation of various integrated Mechanical Pod solutions and form factors. Such pod solutions consist of a set of all-electric heat pump mechanical equipment that have integrated functionalities through built-in controls, with heating, cooling, hot water, ventilation (including energy recovery), electrical management, and battery storage within a single package. The presentation draws inspiration from the success of bathroom pods in the US modular construction industry, UK’s efforts with unitizing mechanical systems as ‘utility cupboards’, and VEIC’s early wins in design-build of all-electric Mechanical Pod solutions in Vermont. The presentation includes researchers and partners involved with NREL in Design for Manufacturing and Assembly (DfMA), Virtual Design and Construction (VDC), and digital twin based process optimization modeling of integrated Mechanical Pod solutions. The presentation aims to highlight early wins from such a platform and how various physical and virtual tools are currently being employed as part of NREL’s ongoing multi-year project funded by US DOE. Streamlined procurement, coordination, installation, and O&M of Mechanical Pods such that the majority of work is delegated to the off-site modular factory implies monetary savings. Such a seemingly basic shift in location of the construction process leads to great reduction in complexity, first cost, lead time, and waste, and greater opportunities for innovative compartmentalization and integration of mechanical systems appropriately sized for each apartment or hotel guest room. However, past studies on unitized combination systems show that high installation costs, maintenance issues, challenges with system integration, limitations in existing electrical infrastructure, and lack of architecturally appealing solutions are key barriers. NREL and partners aim to address key barriers through DfMA approach, rapid prototyping and testing, and digital twin process optimization modeling. The presentation is also a call for interested entities to partner with NREL as part of the national-scale development platform, help drive both product and process innovation, and encourage open source sharing of learnings. Learning objectives include (1) learn about the vision of national-scale shared development platform for process-product innovation on integrated mechanical pod solutions and how to get involved, (2) gain an understanding of the components of an all-electric, high performance home, design characteristics and equipment included in an all-electric mechanical pod, integration of mechanical systems within a modular factories’ assembly line, and the system’s commissioning, operation and maintenance. The pre-planning and coordination with the factory and sub-contractors are also highlighted, (3) gain an understanding of using process modeling tools to quantify resource-constrained performance of operations (such as integration of energy efficiency strategies) to manufacture modules of varying design, (4) gain insights on virtual design, rapid prototyping, and emulated testing of various form factors across different climatic conditions. The need for such preliminary testing with open source sharing of learnings will also be highlighted.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: A 2.7% measurement of baryon acoustic oscillation distance scale at redshift 0.835

We present angular diameter measurements obtained by measuring the position of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) in an optimized sample of galaxies from the first three years of Dark Energy Survey data (DES Y3). The sample consists of 7 million galaxies distributed over a footprint of 4100 deg 2 with 0.6 < z photo < 1.1 and a typical redshift uncertainty of 0.03 ( 1 + z ) . The sample selection is the same as in the BAO measurement with the first year of DES data, but the analysis presented here uses three times the area, extends to higher redshift, and makes a number of improvements, including a fully analytical BAO template, the use of covariances from both theory and simulations, and an extensive preunblinding protocol. We used two different statistics; angular correlation function and power spectrum, and validate our pipeline with an ensemble of over 1500 realistic simulations. Both statistics yield compatible results. We combine the likelihoods derived from angular correlations and spherical harmonics to constrain the ratio of comoving angular diameter distance D M at the effective redshift of our sample to the sound horizon scale at the drag epoch. We obtain D M ( z eff = 0.835 ) / r d = 18.92 ± 0.51 , which is consistent with, but smaller than, the Planck prediction assuming flat Λ CDM , at the level of 2.3 σ . The analysis was performed blind and is robust to changes in a number of analysis choices. It represents the most precise BAO distance measurement from imaging data to date, and is competitive with the latest transverse ones from spectroscopic samples at z > 0.75 . When combined with DES 3 x 2 pt + SNIa , they lead to improvements in H 0 and Ω m constraints by ∼ 20 % .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Synthetic Fungal Strains for Solar System Exploration and Colonization

Solar system exploration and eventual colonization efforts are constrained by limits on the mass of material that can embark from Earth. Thus, creative use of the resources available in situ could reduce mission costs and extend the scope of such activities. To that end, we are developing synthetic fungal strains to produce specialized materials from the resources found throughout the solar system. A primary goal is to develop a suite of Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains to serve as generic production chassis for synthetic metabolic pathways. These strains must perform consistently upon challenge by unique conditions including exposure to microgravity, cosmic radiation, the rigors of launch and re-entry, and long-term stasis. Presently, we are establishing systematic datasets profiling epigenetic, transcriptional, translational and metabolic states of S. cerevisiae under relevant operating conditions. These will deepen our understanding of the physiological changes associated with space travel and enable rational engineering of optimal production strains.

Biotechnology↗

Position-specific carbon isotope analysis of serine by gas chromatography/Orbitrap mass spectrometry, and an application to plant metabolism

Position-specific 13 C/ 12 C ratios within amino acids remain largely unexplored in environmental samples due to methodological limitations. We hypothesized that natural-abundance isotope patterns in serine may serve as a proxy for plant metabolic fluxes including photorespiration. Here we describe an Orbitrap method optimized for the position-specific carbon isotope analysis of serine to test our hypothesis and discuss the generalizability of this method to other amino acids. Position-specific carbon isotope ratios of serine were measured using a Thermo Scientific™ Q Exactive™ GC Orbitrap™. Amino acids were hydrolyzed from Arabidopsis biomass, purified from potential matrix interferences, and derivatized alongside standards. Derivatized serine (N,O-bis(trifluoroacetyl)methyl ester) was isolated using gas chromatography, trapped in a reservoir, and purged into the electron ionization source over tens of minutes, producing fragment ions containing different combinations of atoms from the serine-derivative molecule. The 13 C/ 12 C ratios of fragments with monoisotopic masses of 110.0217, 138.0166, and 165.0037 Da were monitored in the mass analyzer and used to calculate position-specific δ 13 C values relative to a working standard. This methodology constrains position-specific δ 13 C values for nanomole amounts of serine isolated from chemically complex mixtures. The δ 13 C values of fragment ions of serine were characterized with ≤1‰ precisions, leading to propagated standard errors of 0.7–5‰ for each carbon position. Position-specific δ 13 C values differed by up to ca 28 ± 5‰ between serine molecules hydrolyzed from plants grown under contrasting pCO 2 , selected to promote different fluxes through photosynthesis and photorespiration. The method was validated using pure serine standards characterized offline. Here this study presents the first Orbitrap-based measurements of natural-abundance, position-specific carbon isotope variation in an amino acid isolated from a biological matrix. We present a method for the precise characterization of isotope ratios in serine and propose applications probing metabolism in plants. We discuss the potential for extending these approaches to other amino acids, paving the way for novel applications.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Consequences of Different Air-Sea Feedbacks on Ocean Using MITgcm and MERRA-2 Forcing: Implications for Coupled Data Assimilation Systems

Ocean surface flux estimates from atmospheric and oceanic reanalyses contain errors that compensate for inaccuracies in the respective atmosphere and ocean models used to generate these reanalyses. A conundrum for climate studies is the discrepancy between surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an atmosphere-only model vs surface fluxes that minimize model-data differences for an ocean model. As a first step towards a consistent coupled ocean-atmosphere data-assimilation (DA) system, we compare surface net heat flux from a state-of-the-art atmospheric reanalysis, the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), to net heat flux from a state-of-the-art ocean state estimate, the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean Version 4 (ECCO-v4). The possible impacts of the MERRA-2 and ECCO-v4 air-sea net heat flux difference in a coupled DA system were assessed using a set of experiments designed to imitate different “flavors” of a coupled DA system in an ocean-only setup. This was done by forcing the ECCO-v4 underlying ocean model - the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) - with different sets of MERRA-2 fields and utilizing different forcing methods. By doing so we were able to turn off different air-sea feedbacks which, in a coupled DA setup, are partially muted by the constraining observations. The set of experiments, therefore, represents a range of active feedbacks in different “flavors” of coupled data-assimilation systems. For the period 1992–2011, MERRA-2 net heat flux has a global mean difference of -4.9 Wm(exp -2) relative to ECCO-v4. When MERRA-2 surface fields are used to force MITgcm, imbalances in the energy and the hydrological cycles of MERRA-2, which are directly related to the fact that MERRA-2 was created without an interactive ocean, propagate to the ocean. The experiment in which MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 fluxes (MERRA-2-flux experiment) results in a 2.5°C global mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) cooling, a 1m reduction in global mean sea level, and other drastic changes in the large scale ocean circulation relative to those resulting when the MITgcm is forced with the optimized ECCO-v4 net heat flux (the ECCO-v4 experiment itself). When MITgcm is forced with MERRA-2 state variables (MERRA-2-state experiment), the SST is somewhat restored to the observed SST, but the errors are shifted to the water cycle, resulting in a global mean sea level increase of 2.7 m. To further explore the pros and cons of these two approaches, we introduce a new intermediate forcing method in which the ocean is forced with turbulent fluxes but has a long wave feedback. This method, unlike MERRA-2 state, preserves the MERRA-2 water and salinity cycles, and it reduces the SST error compared to the MERRA-2-flux experiment, but the SST is not as good as that in the MERRA-2-state experiment. Our results have implications for ocean-model forcing recipes and clearly reveal the undesirable consequences of limiting the feedbacks in either these types of experiments or in coupled DA.

Ehud Strobach↗

New Constraints on Titan's Stratospheric n-Butane Abundance

Curiously, n-butane has yet to be detected at Titan, though it is predicted to be present in a wide range of abundances that span over 2.5 orders of magnitude. We have searched infrared spectroscopic observations of Titan for signals from n-butane (n-C4H10) in Titan's stratosphere. Three sets of Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer Focal Plane 4 (1050–1500 cm−1) observations were selected for modeling, having been collected from different flybys and pointing latitudes. We modeled the observations with the Nonlinear Optimal Estimator for MultivariatE Spectral AnalySIS radiative transfer tool. Temperature profiles were retrieved for each of the data sets by modeling the ν4 emission from methane near 1305 cm−1. Then, incorporating the temperature profiles, we retrieved abundances of all of Titan's known trace gases that are active in this spectral region, reliably reproducing the observations. We then systematically tested a set of models with varying abundances of n-butane, investigating how the addition of this gas affected the fits. We did this for several different photochemically predicted abundance profiles from the literature, as well as for a constant-with-altitude profile. Ultimately, though we did not produce any firm detection of n-butane, we derived new upper limits on its abundance specific to the use of each profile and to multiple different ranges of stratospheric altitudes. These results will tightly constrain the C4 chemistry of future photochemical modeling of Titan's atmosphere and also motivate the continued search for n-butane and its isomer, isobutane.

Brendan L. Steffens↗

Skewing the CMB×LSS: a fast method for bispectrum analysis

Upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing measurements and tomographic galaxy surveys are expected to provide us with high-precision data sets in the coming years, thus paving the way for fruitful cross-correlation analyses. Here, in this paper we study the information content of the weighted skew-spectrum, a nearly-optimal estimator of the angular bispectrum amplitude, as a means to extract non-Gaussian information on both bias and cosmological parameters from the bispectra of galaxies cross-correlated with CMB lensing, while gaining significantly on speed. Our results show that for the combination of the Planck satellite and the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), the difference in the constraints on bias and cosmological parameters from the skew-spectrum and the bispectrum is at most 17%. We further compare and find agreement between our theoretical skew-spectra and those estimated from N-body simulations, for which it is important to include gravitational non-linearities beyond perturbation theory and the post-Born effect for CMB lensing. We define an algorithm to apply the skew-spectrum estimator to the data and, as a preliminary step, we use the skew-spectra to constrain bias parameters and the amplitude of shot noise from the simulations through a Markov chain Monte Carlo likelihood analysis, finding that it may be possible to reach percent-level estimates for the linear bias parameter b 1 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗