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Evidence for some connection between weather and solar related phenomena is presented. Historical data of world wide temperature variations with relationship to change in solar luminosity are examined. Several test methods for estimating the statistical significance of such phenomena are discussed in detail.
The advantages of a regular program of daily observations of the magnetosphere, ionosphere and atmosphere are described. Such synoptic observations may be one of the best routes to understanding the physical mechanisms involved in sun-weather influences. Some specific examples of such observations are given.
The feasibility of designing a prediction and warning system for severe weather conditions on the basis of time series analysis and pattern recognition is examined. Data accumulated by Taylor (1972) on the rate of atmospherics produced by severe, tornado-producing storms that struck Oklahoma City during April 1970 are analyzed by time series analysis and pattern recognition. Power spectra, cross-power spectra, coherence functions, and time-varying patterns are analyzed.
Extension of the predictive power of dynamic weather forecasting to scales below the conventional synoptic or cyclonic scales in the near future is assessed. Lower costs per computation, more powerful computers, and a 100 km mesh over the North American area (with coarser mesh extending beyond it) are noted at present. Doubling the resolution even locally (to 50 km mesh) would entail a 16-fold increase in costs (including vertical resolution and halving the time interval), and constraints on domain size and length of forecast. Boundary conditions would be provided by the surrounding 100 km mesh, and time-varying lateral boundary conditions can be considered to handle moving phenomena. More physical processes to treat, more efficient numerical techniques, and faster computers (improved software and hardware) backing up satellite and radar data could produce further improvements in forecasting in the 1980s. Boundary layer modeling, initialization techniques, and quantitative precipitation forecasting are singled out among key tasks.
The author has identified the following significant results. Many types of environmental sensors can be interfaced to the LANDSAT DCP. The LANDSAT field installations proved to be remarkably reliable, weather resistant, and cost effective units able to relay high quality data in near real time. The wind averaging system demonstrated the feasibility of transmitting averaged wind data, stored over a period of several hours, from a remote site.
The design of a K-band radiometer for use in the microwave weather project is discussed. The major components of the system, such as feedhorn, waveguide switch, and receiver assembly are described. The system will be installed at DSS 13 at Goldstone, California, when completed.
A near real-time ice information system designed to aid arctic coast shipping along the Alaskan North Slope is described. The system utilizes a X-band Side Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR) mounted aboard a U.S. Coast Guard HC-130B aircraft. Radar mapping procedures showing the type, areal distribution and concentration of ice cover were developed. In order to guide vessel operational movements, near real-time SLAR image data were transmitted directly from the SLAR aircraft to Barrow, Alaska and the U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker Glacier. In addition, SLAR image data were transmitted in real time to Cleveland, Ohio via the NOAA-GOES Satellite. Radar images developed in Cleveland were subsequently facsimile transmitted to the U.S. Navy's Fleet Weather Facility in Suitland, Maryland for use in ice forecasting and also as a demonstration back to Barrow via the Communications Technology Satellite.
Small scale combined load fatigue tests were conducted on six artificially and six naturally weathered test specimens. The test specimen material was unidirectionally oriented A-S graphite - woven glass scrim epoxy resin laminate.
The present status of sun-weather research is summarized. Recommendations for future research are given.
The solar spectrum in the range of 300 is less than lambda is less than 1500nm is given for five typical clear weather days. These days are selected to represent typical seasonal conditions in respect to airmass water vapor, ozone, and turbidity. Present data are reviewed, and specific conditions are selected. The spectral distribution of the irradiance is given for the direct component, the scattered skylight, the total flux on a horizontal surface, and the flux on an inclined surface normal to the direct beam.
Most of the variability in wheat production is due to weather fluctuations. Climatic differences within the region account for a large portion of the variability in yields for different parts of the region. Separate regression models were developed for each of the areas indicated.
The possible processes in the lower atmosphere of the earth initiated or controlled by changes in the output of the sun are investigated. These changes can include solar variation in radiation (as in the constant, or in specific wavelength regions), in particles (as in physical properties of the solar wind, or in solar cosmic rays, or solar-modulated galactic cosmic rays), and in the extended magnetic field of the sun (as in circumstances of the passage of interplanetary sector boundaries). Changes of short term (in the weather) as well as long term (in regional or global climate) are considered.
Spectral analysis is used as an independent test of the reported association between interplanetary-magnetic-field structure and terrestrial weather. Spectra of the Ap geomagnetic activity index and the vorticity area index for the years from 1964 to 1970 are examined for common features that may be associated with solar-related phenomena, specifically for peaks in the power spectra of both time series with periods near 27.1 days. The spectra are compared in three ways, and the largest peak with the smallest probability estimate is found to occur at a period of 27.49 days. This result is considered to be statistically significant at the 98% level. It is concluded that the period derived from the Ap spectrum is related to solar rotation and that the analysis provides supporting evidence for a connection between the vorticity area index and solar activity.
The influence of the sector structure on the fundamental quantities (densities, temperatures, pressure, composition, electric and magnetic fields, etc.) in the magnetosphere, ionosphere and atmosphere is discussed, and daily synoptic observations of these quantities are recommended for future sun-weather investigations. Extended Shuttle missions are proposed to carry out these observations. Continuous observations of the interplanetary quantities such as the solar wind velocity, density, temperature and composition, the vector interplanetary magnetic field, and energetic particle fluxes through a wide range of energies are also recommended for understanding the extraterrestrial causes of terrestrial effects. The Heliocentric Spacecraft of the International Sun-Earth Explorer Project which remains 0.01 astronomical units from the earth is found to be the best means of carrying out these interplanetary observations.
A description is presented of the results of an investigation of the guidance and navigation requirements for VTOL spiral descents in the presence of winds. A spiral approach for all-weather operations for VTOL aircraft is discussed along with aspects of spiral approach guidance. Attention is given to the equations of motion, nominal spiral specification, the wind estimator, and the feedback guidance law. The performance of the spiral guidance algorithms is evaluated with the aid of a realistic example which was selected for the Kennedy International Airport in New York City.
The author has identified the following significant results. The potential benefit of improved dissemination of weather information to the Mississippi cotton farmer was estimated at $36,000 per 1000 acres. This is 16% of production cost of cotton in 1976. On a statewide basis, the total potential savings exceeds 100 million dollars.
Forecasting and warning of severe weather conditions are treated from the vantage point of pattern recognition by machine. Pictorial patterns and waveform patterns are distinguished. Time series data on sferics are dealt with by considering waveform patterns. A severe storm patterns recognition machine is described, along with schemes for detection via cross-correlation of time series (same channel or different channels). Syntactic and decision-theoretic approaches to feature extraction are discussed. Active and decayed tornados and thunderstorms, lightning discharges, and funnels and their related time series data are studied.
Two aircraft accidents in 1975, one at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City on 24 June and the other at Stapleton International Airport in Denver on 7 August, were examined in detail. A third accident on 23 June 1976 at Philadelphia International Airport is being investigated. Amazingly, there was a spearhead echo just to the north of each accident site. The echoes formed from 5 to 50 min in advance of the accident and moved faster than other echoes in the vicinity. These echoes were photographed by National Weather Service radars, 130-205 km away. At closer ranges, however, one or more circular echoes were depicted by airborne and ground radars. These cells were only 3-5 km in diameter, but they were accompanied by downdrafts of extreme intensity, called downbursts. All accidents occurred as aircraft, either descending or climbing, lost altitude while experiencing strong wind shear inside downburst cells.