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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience to climate and economic shocks and change. However, multi‐sector systems are also subject to numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application of simulation models for prediction and planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior to a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed a combination of methods to characterize, attribute, and quantify these uncertainties for both single‐ and multi‐sector systems. Here, we review challenges and complications to the idealized goal of fully quantifying all uncertainties in a multi‐sector model and their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages of analysis: (a) inference and model calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; and (c) scenario discovery and identification of risk regimes. We also identify potential methods and research opportunities to help navigate the tradeoffs inherent in uncertainty analyses for complex systems. During this discussion, we provide a classification of uncertainty types and discuss model coupling frameworks to support interdisciplinary collaboration on multi‐sector dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, we conclude with recommendations for best practices to ensure that MSD research can be properly contextualized with respect to the underlying uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a Lunar Lander Modeling and Simulation Capability

The development and validation of a capability to perform quantitative, physics-based analysis of alternatives of conceptual unmanned, reusable lunar cargo lander architectures is discussed. The lander is conceptualized as a suite of disciplines that need to be sized, synthesized, and optimized for a mission. As such, models of these disciplines were developed and integrated in a recently-developed multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization framework for space systems. The development of the disciplines, as well as how they are integrated into the framework, is discussed. Additionally, validation studies were performed against the Descent Module of the Altair lunar lander. Finally, an example problem for an uncrewed, reusable lander is presented.

Eugina Mendez Ramos↗

Development of a Lunar Lander Modeling and Simulation Capability

The development and validation of a capability to perform quantitative, physics-based analysis of alternatives of conceptual unmanned, reusable lunar cargo lander architectures is discussed. The lander is conceptualized as a suite of disciplines that need to be sized, synthesized, and optimized for a mission. As such, models of these disciplines were developed and integrated in a recently-developed multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization framework for space systems. The development of the disciplines, as well as how they are integrated into the framework, is discussed. Additionally, validation studies were performed against the Descent Module of the Altair lunar lander. Finally, an example problem for an uncrewed, reusable lander is presented.

Eugina Mendez Ramos↗

Development of a Lunar Lander Modeling and Simulation Capability

The development and validation of a capability to perform quantitative, physics-based analysis of alternatives of conceptual unmanned, reusable lunar cargo lander architectures is discussed. The lander is conceptualized as a suite of disciplines that need to be sized, synthesized, and optimized for a mission. As such, models of these disciplines were developed and integrated in a recently-developed multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization framework for space systems. The development of the disciplines, as well as how they are integrated into the framework, is discussed. Additionally, validation studies were performed against the Descent Module of the Altair lunar lander. Finally, an example problem for an uncrewed, reusable lander is presented.

Eugina Mendez Ramos↗

Modeling of RMS Current in CSI Filter Capacitor and Minimum Conduction Loss Operation of CSI-Fed PMSM Drives for Traction Applications

This paper presents a new minimum conduction loss (MCL) torque control algorithm for current source inverter- (CSI-) fed permanent-magnet synchronous machine drives that improves the overall machine drive efficiency by minimizing the combined conduction losses in the inverter and machine at each operating point. First, analytical models of conduction losses in CSI-fed motor drives are presented, and a closed-form expression for optimal d-axis stator current to achieve MCL operation is derived. An expression for the rms current in both wye- and delta-connected CSI output capacitors is derived. A detailed simulation model that emulates the operation of a 100 kW SiC CSI-fed integrated machine drive (IMD) has been developed based on experimental results and finite element analysis. This simulation model is used to evaluate the proposed MCL control algorithm applied to a CSI-fed IMD system for a battery-electric vehicle traction drive, and the predicted total drive system loss with MCL control is compared to predicted losses with maximum-torque-per-ampere (MTPA) and minimum dc-link current (MDCC) control. Results show that MCL control can achieve loss reductions compared to the other two control algorithms over a wide range of operating conditions, with significant loss reductions >20% in the medium-speed regime.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An Observation‐Driven Approach to Improve Vegetation Phenology in a Global Land Surface Model

An empirical model calibration approach is presented that aims to approximate missing biosphere processes in a global land surface model without the need for substantial model structural changes. The strategy is implemented here using the NASA Catchment‐CN land surface model and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR). Existing plant functional types (PFTs) of the Catchment‐CN model are divided into three subtypes, based on the bias between the model‐simulated and MODIS‐observed FPAR. Separate sets of vegetation parameters for each subtype are then calibrated at a small number of grid cells with homogeneous, single‐PFT land cover, using MODIS FPAR reference observations from 2003 to 2009. The effectiveness of the empirical approach at improving the realism of modeled vegetation dynamics is investigated with two global model simulations for the period 2010–2016, one using the newly calibrated parameter values and the other using the original values. Globally, the calibrated parameters reduce the root mean square error (RMSE) of the modeled FPAR with respect to MODIS by 0.029 (∼10%) on average. In some regions, substantially larger RMSE reductions are achieved. RMSE reductions are primarily driven by model bias reductions, with neutral effects on the temporal correlation skill. While the empirical approach is suitable for achieving consistent model improvements, it is shown to be sensitive to the characteristics of the model error, specifically a dominance of the bias component in the case of Catchment‐CN. Ultimately, more fundamental model structural changes may be required to achieve better improvements.

J. Kolassa↗

Aeroelastic modeling for the FIT (Functional Integration Technology) team F/A-18 simulation

As part of Langley Research Center's commitment to developing multidisciplinary integration methods to improve aerospace systems, the Functional Integration Technology (FIT) team was established to perform dynamics integration research using an existing aircraft configuration, the F/A-18. An essential part of this effort has been the development of a comprehensive simulation modeling capability that includes structural, control, and propulsion dynamics as well as steady and unsteady aerodynamics. The structural and unsteady aerodynamics contributions come from an aeroelastic mode. Some details of the aeroelastic modeling done for the Functional Integration Technology (FIT) team research are presented. Particular attention is given to work done in the area of correction factors to unsteady aerodynamics data.

Zeiler, Thomas A.↗

Robust Carbon Dioxide Plume Imaging Using Joint Tomographic Inversion of Seismic Onset Time and Distributed Pressure and Temperature Measurements (Final Report)

We develop and demonstrate rapid and cost-effective methodologies for spatiotemporal tracking of CO2 plumes during geologic sequestration using joint inversion of seismic data and distributed pressure and temperature measurements. Key elements of our methodology are: (a) a computationally efficient approach to pressure and temperature propagation, (b) analysis of time lapse seismic data using a novel ‘seismic onset time’ approach to detect fluid front propagation, and (c) data assimilation and uncertainty assessment via joint inversion of pressure, temperature and time lapse seismic data, and (d) validating the numerical tomographic inversion using a CO2 injection demonstration projects, specifically data collected from the from the Petra Nova Parish Holdings CCUS project in the West Ranch Field, Texas and the Chester-16 reef CO2 injection site in Northern Michigan which is part of the DOE Midwestern Carbon Sequestration Project. The research team is led by Texas A&M University and includes Battelle as a subcontractor with support from Shell, Anadarko, Chevron and JX Nippon. A carbon dioxide (CO2) water-alternating-gas (WAG) pilot was conducted to gain insights into tertiary oil recovery potential via CO2 flood in the West Ranch Field as part of the Petra Nova project, the world’s largest post-combustion CO2 capture and utilization initiative. With a fluvial formation geology and large contrasts in permeability, this is a challenging and novel application of CO2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). We build a predictive dynamic model of the subsurface that incorporates the multiphase and compositional data acquired during the pilot operation. The calibrated model is used for the carbon dioxide plume imaging. The study began with an initialization of the pilot sector model extracted from a calibrated full-field model. The pilot model calibration follows a two-step hierarchical workflow. First, we performed a large-scale update of the permeability distribution by integrating available bottomhole pressure and multiphase production data. In the second step, local permeability field is fine-tuned using a streamline-based method to match CO2 breakthrough times at the producers. The predictive capability of the calibrated model was verified through two blind validation tests: (1) the model showed good agreement with saturation logs acquired at two observation wells; and (2) the model reproduced the CO2 recovery as a fraction of the injected CO2. The use of seismic onset times has shown great promise for integrating near-continuous seismic surveys for updating geologic models. In this study, we analyze the impact of seismic survey frequency on the onset time approach aiming to extend the application of onset time to infrequent seismic surveys. In addition, we quantitatively examine the nonlinearity of the onset time method and compare it to the commonly used amplitude inversion method. We carry out a sensitivity analysis of seismic survey frequency based on the complete seismic survey data (over 175 surveys) of steam injection in a heavy oil reservoir (Peace River Unit) in Canada. Our results show that an adequate onset time map can be obtained from the infrequent seismic surveys by interpolation between seismic surveys as long as there is no change in the dominant underlying physics between the successive surveys. The study also shows that nonlinearity of the onset time method can be -smaller than that of the amplitude inversion method by several orders of magnitude. Application to the Brugge benchmark case shows that the onset time method obtains comparable permeability update as the traditional seismic amplitude inversion method with faster computation and improved convergence characteristics. We extend the streamline-based data integration approach to incorporate distributed temperature sensor (DTS) data using the concept of thermal tracer travel time. Then, a hierarchical workflow composed of evolutionary and streamline methods is employed to jointly history match the DTS and pressure data. Finally, CO2 saturation and streamline maps are used to visualize the CO2 plume movement during the sequestration process. The hierarchical workflow is applied to a carbon sequestration project in a carbonate reef reservoir within the Northern Niagaran Pinnacle Reef Trend in Michigan, USA. The monitoring data set consists of distributed temperature sensing (DTS) data acquired at the injection well and a monitoring well, flowing bottom-hole pressure data at the injection well, and time-lapse pressure measurements at several locations along the monitoring well. The history matching results indicate that the CO2 movement is mostly restricted to the intended zones of injection which is consistent with an independent warm-back analysis of the temperature data. In addition to employing simulation models and inverse methods for CO2 plume imaging, we also initialized a data-driven technology for detecting inter-well connectivity based on production and pressure data. Our machine-learning framework is built on the statistical recurrent unit (SRU) model and interprets well-based injection/production data into inter-well connectivity without relying on a geologic model. We test it on synthetic and field-scale CO2 EOR projects utilizing the water-alternating-gas (WAG) process. The validation of the proposed data-driven inter-well connectivity assessment is performed using synthetic data from simulation models where inter-well connectivity can be easily measured using the streamline-based flux allocation. The SRU model is shown to offer excellent prediction performance on the synthetic case. Despite significant measurement noise and frequent well shut-ins imposed in the field-scale case, the SRU model offers good prediction accuracy, the overall relative error of the phase production rates at most producers ranges from 10% to 30%. It is shown that the dominant connections identified by the data-driven method and streamline method are in close agreement. Texas A&M University, the lead organization in the project, was primarily responsible for the development of tomographic approaches for CO2 plume mapping in conjunction with distributed pressure, temperature and seismic onset time data. Battelle, as a subcontractor, was primarily responsible for the development of analytical and empirical methods for analyzing transient injection rate and pressure data from point/line sources such as injection and monitoring wells. An additional area of emphasis for Battelle was the use of machine learning for such tasks as inferring reservoir connectivity information from injection-production data, and identifying variable importance for machine learning-based proxy models developed from full-physics simulations. The two organizations also collaborated on the application of the tomographic inversion methodology for a field data set.

02 PETROLEUM↗

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2): Simulation and Modeling Used in Surface Analysis

This presentation describes how the fast-time simualtion and modeling techniques are used in the development of ATD-2 system, especially for surface traffic data anlaysis. This presentation will answer the following questions: What analytical results are most important to communicate to Industry from ATD-2 simulation? What fast-time simulations are currently in the works, including EOBT quality impact study and benefits/costs assessment of ATD-2?

fast-time simulation↗

Integrated Medical Model (IMM) 4.0 Enhanced Functionalities

The Integrated Medical Model is a probabilistic simulation model that uses input data on 100 medical conditions to simulate expected medical events, the resources required to treat, and the resulting impact to the mission for specific crew and mission characteristics. The newest development version of IMM, IMM v4.0, adds capabilities that remove some of the conservative assumptions that underlie the current operational version, IMM v3. While IMM v3 provides the framework to simulate whether a medical event occurred, IMMv4 also simulates when the event occurred during a mission timeline. This allows for more accurate estimation of mission time lost and resource utilization. In addition to the mission timeline, IMMv4.0 features two enhancements that address IMM v3 assumptions regarding medical event treatment. Medical events in IMMv3 are assigned the untreated outcome if any resource required to treat the event was unavailable. IMMv4 allows for partially treated outcomes that are proportional to the amount of required resources available, thus removing the dichotomous treatment assumption. An additional capability IMMv4 is to use an alternative medical resource when the primary resource assigned to the condition is depleted, more accurately reflecting the real-world system. The additional capabilities defining IMM v4.0the mission timeline, partial treatment, and alternate drug result in more realistic predicted mission outcomes. The primary model outcomes of IMM v4.0 for the ISS6 mission, including mission time lost, probability of evacuation, and probability of loss of crew life, are be compared to those produced by the current operational version of IMM to showcase enhanced prediction capabilities.

Spae Adaptation Syndrome↗

Implementation of hydrologic models at Goddard Space Flight Center

Major watershed simulation models were implemented on the computer system at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, and their operation was verified. Historical and physiographic data were acquired for two Maryland river basins (Monocasy River above Jug Bridge and Patuxent River near Laurel, Maryland) and the models were calibrated to simulate them. GSFC personnel were instructed in model operation after the models were implemented.

Source record↗

Model and remote-sensing-guided experimental design and hypothesis generation for monitoring snow-soil–plant interactions

In this study, we develop a machine-learning (ML)-enabled strategy for selecting hillslope-scale ecohydrological monitoring sites within snow-dominated mountainous watersheds, with a particular focus on snow-soil–plant interactions. Data layers rely on spatial data layers from both remote sensing and hydrological model simulations. Specifically, a Landsat-based foresummer drought sensitivity index is used to define the dependency of the annual peak plant productivity on the Palmer drought severity index in the early growing season. Hydrological simulations provide the spatiotemporal dynamics of near-surface soil moisture and snow depth. In this framework, a regression analysis identifies the key hydrological variables relevant to the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity. We then apply unsupervised clustering to these key variables, using the Gaussian mixture model, to group hillslopes into several zones that have divergent relationships regarding soil moisture, snow dynamics, and drought sensitivity. Using the datasets collected in the East River Watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado, United States), results show that drought sensitivity is significantly correlated with model-derived soil moisture and snow-free timing over space and time. The relationship is, however, non-linear, such that the correlation decreases above a threshold elevation and in a heavy snow year due to large snowpacks, lateral flow, and soil storage limitations. Clustering is then able to define the zones that have high or low sensitivity to drought, as well as the mid-elevation regions where sensitivity is associated with the topographic aspect and net potential radiation. In addition, the algorithm identifies the most representative hillslopes with road/trail access within each zone for installing monitoring sites. Our method also aims to significantly increase the use of ML and model-simulation results to guide critical zone and watershed monitoring activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A distributed analysis and visualization system for model and observational data

Software was developed with NASA support to aid in the analysis and display of the massive amounts of data generated from satellites, observational field programs, and from model simulations. This software was developed in the context of the PATHFINDER (Probing ATmospHeric Flows in an Interactive and Distributed EnviRonment) Project. The overall aim of this project is to create a flexible, modular, and distributed environment for data handling, modeling simulations, data analysis, and visualization of atmospheric and fluid flows. Software completed with NASA support includes GEMPAK analysis, data handling, and display modules for which collaborators at NASA had primary responsibility, and prototype software modules for three-dimensional interactive and distributed control and display as well as data handling, for which NSCA was responsible. Overall process control was handled through a scientific and visualization application builder from Silicon Graphics known as the Iris Explorer. In addition, the GEMPAK related work (GEMVIS) was also ported to the Advanced Visualization System (AVS) application builder. Many modules were developed to enhance those already available in Iris Explorer including HDF file support, improved visualization and display, simple lattice math, and the handling of metadata through development of a new grid datatype. Complete source and runtime binaries along with on-line documentation is available via the World Wide Web at: http://redrock.ncsa.uiuc.edu/ PATHFINDER/pathre12/top/top.html.

Wilhelmson, Robert B.↗

Design, modeling and simulation of nuclear-powered integrated energy systems with cascaded heating applications

Nuclear-renewable integrated energy systems (IES) consist of a variety of energy generation and conversion technologies and can be used to meet heterogeneous end uses (e.g., electricity, heat, and cooling demands). In addition to supply-demand balance, end-use heat demands usually require heat supply of certain temperature ranges. The effective and efficient utilization of heat produced within an IES is, therefore, a critical challenge. Here, this paper examines design options of an IES that includes heating processes of multiple temperature grades. We investigate a cascaded design configuration, where the remaining residual heat after high-grade heating processes [e.g., hydrogen production through high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE)] is recovered to meet the low-grade heating needs [e.g., district heating (DH)]. Additionally, a thermal energy storage system is integrated into the DH system to address the imbalance between heat supply and demand. This paper primarily focuses on the design and modeling of the proposed system and evaluates its operation with a 24-h transient process simulation using a DH demand profile with hourly resolution. The results indicate that the residual heat from the HTSE exhaust is insufficient for the DH demand, and additional topping heat directly from the reactor process steam is needed. Furthermore, the inclusion of thermal energy storage within the DH system provides the necessary balance between thermal generation and demand, thereby ensuring a consistent rated temperature of the DH supply water. This approach helps minimize the control actions needed on the reactor side.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Modeling and Simulating Airport Surface Operations with Gate Conflicts

The Surface Operations Simulator and Scheduler (SOSS) is a fast-time simulation platform used to develop and test future surface scheduling concepts such as NASAs Air Traffic Demonstration 2 of time-based surface metering at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT). Challenges associated with CLT surface operations have driven much of SOSS development. Recently, SOSS functionality for modeling hardstand operations was developed to address gate conflicts, which occur when an arrival and departure wish to occupy the same gate at the same time. Because surface metering concepts such as ATD2 have the potential to increase gates conflicts as departure are held at their gates, it is important to study the interaction between surface metering and gate conflict management. Several approaches to managing gate conflicts with and without the use of hardstands were simulated and their effects on surface operations and scheduler performance compared.

Zelinski, Shannon↗