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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

Preliminary Examination of the Interstellar Collector of Stardust

The findings of the Stardust spacecraft mission returned to earth in January 2006 are discussed. The spacecraft returned two unprecedented and independent extraterrestrial samples: the first sample of a comet and the first samples of contemporary interstellar dust. An important lesson from the cometary Preliminary Examination (PE) was that the Stardust cometary samples in aerogel presented a technical challenge. Captured particles often separate into multiple fragments, intimately mix with aerogel and are typically buried hundreds of microns to millimeters deep in the aerogel collectors. The interstellar dust samples are likely much more challenging since they are expected to be orders of magnitudes smaller in mass, and their fluence is two orders of magnitude smaller than that of the cometary particles. The goal of the Stardust Interstellar Preliminary Examination (ISPE) is to answer several broad questions, including: which features in the interstellar collector aerogel were generated by hypervelocity impact and how much morphological and trajectory information may be gained?; how well resolved are the trajectories of probable interstellar particles from those of interplanetary origin?; and, by comparison to impacts by known particle dimensions in laboratory experiments, what was the mass distribution of the impacting particles? To answer these questions, and others, non-destructive, sequential, non-invasive analyses of interstellar dust candidates extracted from the Stardust interstellar tray will be performed. The total duration of the ISPE will be three years and will differ from the Stardust cometary PE in that data acquisition for the initial characterization stage will be prolonged and will continue simultaneously and parallel with data publications and release of the first samples for further investigation.

Westphal, A. J.↗

Projecting the Local Impacts of Climate Change on a Central American Montane Avian Community

Significant changes in the climates of Central America are expected over the next century. Lowland rainforests harbor high alpha diversity on local scales (<1 km2), yet montane landscapes often support higher beta diversity on 10-100 km2 scales. Climate change will likely disrupt the altitudinal zonation of montane communities that produces such landscape diversity. Projections of biotic response to climate change have often used broad-scale modelling of geographical ranges, but understanding likely impacts on population viability is also necessary for anticipating local and global extinctions. We model species abundances and estimate range shifts for birds in the Tilaran Mountains of Costa Rica, asking whether projected changes in temperature and rainfall could be sufficient to imperil high-elevation endemics and whether these variables will likely impact communities similarly. We find that nearly half of 77 forest bird species can be expected to decline in the next century. Almost half of species projected to decline are endemic to Central America, and seven of eight species projected to become locally extinct are endemic to the highlands of Costa Rica and Panam . Logistic-regression modelling of distributions and similarity in projections produced by temperature and rainfall models suggest that changes in both variables will be important. Although these projections are probably conservative because they do not explicitly incorporate biological or climate variable interactions, they provide a starting point for incorporating more realistic biological complexity into community-change models. Prudent conservation planning for tropical mountains should focus on regions with room for altitudinal reorganization of communities comprised of ecological specialists.

Gasner, Matthew R.↗

The Geology of Pluto and Charon Through the Eyes of New Horizons

NASA's New Horizons spacecraft has revealed the complex geology of Pluto and Charon. Pluto's encounter hemisphere shows ongoing surface geological activity centered on a vast basin containing a thick layer of volatile ices that appears to be involved in convection and advection, with a crater retention age no greater than approximately 10 million years. Surrounding terrains show active glacial flow, apparent transport and rotation of large buoyant water-ice crustal blocks, and pitting, the latter likely caused by sublimation erosion and/or collapse. More enigmatic features include tall mounds with central depressions that are conceivably cryovolcanic and ridges with complex bladed textures. Pluto also has ancient cratered terrains up to approximately 4 billion years old that are extensionally faulted and extensively mantled and perhaps eroded by glacial or other processes. Charon does not appear to be currently active, but experienced major extensional tectonism and resurfacing (probably cryovolcanic) nearly 4 billion years ago. Impact crater populations on Pluto and Charon are not consistent with the steepest impactor size-frequency distributions proposed for the Kuiper belt.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

Dissociation and Internal Excitation of Molecular Nitrogen Due to N + N2 Collisions Using Direct Molecular Simulation

In this work we present a molecular level study of N2+N collisions, focusing on excitation of internal energy modes and non-equilibrium dissociation. The computation technique used here is the direct molecular simulation (DMS) method and the molecular interactions have been modeled using an ab−initio potential energy surface (PES) developed at NASA's Ames Research Center. We carried out vibrational excitation calculations between 5000K and 30000K and found that the characteristic vibrational excitation time for the N + N2 process was an order of magnitude lower than that predicted by the Millikan and White correlation. It is observed that during vibrational excitation the high energy tail of the vibrational energy distribution gets over populated first and the lower energy levels get populated as the system evolves. It is found that the non-equilibrium dissociation rate coefficients for the N + N2 process are larger than those for the N2 + N2 process. This is attributed to the non-equilibrium vibrational energy distributions for the N + N2 process being less depleted than that for the N2 +N2 process. For an isothermal simulation we find that the probability of dissociation goes as 1/T(sub tr) for molecules with internal energy (epsilon(sub int)) less than approximately 9.9eV, while for molecules with epsilon (sub int) greater than 9.9eV the dissociation probability was weakly dependent on translational temperature of the system. We compared non-equilibrium dissociation rate coefficients and characteristic vibrational excitation times obtained by using the ab-initio PES developed at NASA's Ames Research Center to those obtained by using an ab-initio PES developed at the University of Minnesota. Good agreement was found between the macroscopic properties and molecular level description of the system obtained by using the two PESs.

Grover, Maninder S.↗

A Comparative Study on Computation of Cumulative Distribution Function in Predicting Time of Failure of Engineering Systems

Estimating accurate Time-of-Failure (ToF) of a system is key in making the decisions that impact operational safety and optimize cost. In this context, it is interesting to note that different approaches have been explored to tackle the problem of estimating ToF. The difference is in part characterized by different definitions of the hazard zones. The conventional definition for the cumulative distribution function (CDF) calculation is assumed to have well-defined hazard zones, that is, hazard zones defined as a function of the system state trajectory. An alternate method suggests the use of hazard zones defined as a function of the system state at time , instead of hazard zones defined as a function of system state up to and including time k (Acuna and Orchard 2018, 2017). This paper explores these differences and their impact on ToF estimation. Results for the conventional CDF definition indicated that, (i) the cumulative distribution function is always an increasing function of time, even when realizations of the degradation process are not monotonic, (ii) the sum of all probabilities is always 1 and does not need to be normalized, and (iii) all probabilities are positive and less than or equal to 1. Similar results are not observed for CDF calculation with hazard zones defined as a function only of the system state at time . Results for ToF estimation using Acuna's definition differ, suggesting that there is an underlying assumption of independence in the hazard zone definition. Therefore, we present an alternate definition of hazard zone which guarantees the properties of a well-defined CDF with a more straightforward ToF definition.

Hazard Zone↗

Hypervelocity impact facility for simulating materials exposure to impact by space debris

As a result of man's venturing into space, the local debris contributed by his presence exceeds, at some orbital altitudes, that of the natural component. Man's contribution ranges from fuel residue to large derelect satellites that weigh many kilograms. Current debris models are able to predict the growth of the problem and suggest that spacecraft must employ armor or bumper shields for some orbital altitudes now, and that, the problem will become worse as a function of time. The practical upper limit to the velocity distribution is on the order of 40 km/s and is associated with the natural environment. The maximum velocity of the man-made component is in the 14-16 km/s range. The Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) has verified that the 'high probability of impact' particles are in the microgram to milligram range. These particles can have significant effects on coatings, insulators, and thin metallic layers. The surface of thick materials becomes pitted and the local debris component is enhanced by ejecta from the debris spectrum in a controlled environment. The facility capability is discussed in terms of drive geometry, energetics, velocity distribution, diagnostics, and projectile/debris loading. The facility is currently being used to study impact phenomena on Space Station Freedom's solar array structure, other solar array materials, potential structural materials for use in the station, electrical breakdown in the space environment, and as a means of clarifying or duplicating the impact phenomena on the LDEF surfaces. The results of these experiments are described in terms of the mass/velocity distribution incident on selected samples, crater dynamics, and sample geometry.

Rose, M. F.↗

Methodology to Assess the Changing Risk of Yield Failure Due to Heat and Drought Stress Under Climate Change

While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between −0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of −0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation.

Climate risk assessment↗

Granulometric characteristics of lunar surface material from the Sea of Fertility

The particle size distributions in the 1-1000 micrometer range along the length of the core of lunar surface material returned by Luna 16 were recorded by electrical impulse as well as sieve methods. The measurements are represented in the form of cumulative functions of the logarithm of size versus the logarithm of particle number, and also as the logarithm of size versus particle mass on a probability scale. The former functions at all depths consist of the super-positioning of two straight lines with slopes from 2.10 to 4.05. The second functions are near linear, which together with the closeness of the calculated asymmetries of the distribution to zero and the nearness of the calculated excess of the distributions to unity indicate the closeness of the recorded distributions to the logarithmically normal law. This agrees with the assumption that regolith particles were formed in a process of intensive mechanical grinding.

Stakheyev, Y. I.↗

Flow over a slender body of revolution at supersonic velocities

The theory of small disturbances is applied to the calculation of the pressure distribution and drag of a closed body of revolution traveling at supersonic speeds. It is shown that toward the rear of the body the shape of the pressure distribution is similar to that for subsonic flow. For fineness ratios between 10 and 15 the theoretical wave drag is of the same order as probable values of the frictional drag.

Jones, R. T.↗

Binary X-ray pulsars

Recent progress in the study of the pulse profiles of the nine known binary X-ray pulsars is discussed. The sources considered include SMC X-1, Her X-1, Cen X-3, A0535+26, GX1+4, 3U 0900-40, A1118-61, GX301-2, and 3U 0352+30. Sample X-ray profiles for these sources are provided, and general features exhibited by the profiles are identified. It is noted that the apparent existence of a gap in the period distribution of X-ray pulsars, in the range from about 5 to 100 sec, seems to be genuine within obvious statistical limitations and is probably not an observational effect. Two explanations for the production of X-ray pulsations are examined: one requiring a temporal modulation of mass accretion onto the surface of a neutron star and another requiring the funnelling of matter along magnetic field lines to the neutron star's surface.

Rappaport, S.↗

The Apollo 17 drill core - Petrologic systematics and the identification of a possible Tycho component

Modal data support a five-unit stratigraphy for the Apollo 17 drill core. The upper unit E (0-22 cm depth) is marked by high content of fused soil, brown glass, and mare basalt fragments. This unit corresponds with a portion of the core excavated and refilled within the last 2 m.y. The underlying unit D (22071 cm depth) has a low abundance of fused soil (i.e., low maturity) and is rich in coarse (less than 200 microns) mare fragments. A large section of the core, unit C (71-224 cm depth), is finer-grained, more mature (richer in agglutinates), more feldspathic and has more highland lithic, mineral and glass fragments than unit D. The next underlying unit, B (224-256 cm depth), has yellow/colorless KREEP glasses with a high Si, low-alkali composition unlike the common Apollo 15 or Apollo 17 KREEP series. The petrologic (fused soil) and Is/FeO maturity of this layer is also lower than the units above and below. The deepest unit, A (256-284 cm depth), is marked by its relatively higher maturity and lower yellow/colorless KREEP glass content. The most prominent petrographic/stratigraphic indicators are the pyroxene-rich immature mare unit D and the abundance of KREEP glass in unit B. This KREEP glass is distinctive petrographically and compositionally, and is probably exotic to the Apollo 17 site. It is suggested here that the KREEP glass in unit B is derived from Tycho, which implies widespread distribution of KREEP on the lunar nearside.

Vaniman, D. T.↗

Sulfur dioxide and other cloud-related gases as the source of the microwave opacity of the middle atmosphere of Venus

Spacecraft radio occultation measurements imply the presence of a nonuniformly mixed gaseous absorber within, but mostly below, the main cloud layer of sulfuric acid-water droplets measured by Pioneer-Venus. Preliminary considerations of the amount, distribution, and effects of sulfur dioxide and other gases, which apparently are associated with and produce the cloud, indicate that they constitute an important, and probably the predominant, source of the observed microwave opacity of the middle atmosphere of Venus.

Steffes, P. G.↗

Coronal Temperatures

The solid state spectrometer (SSS) on the Einstein Observatory (HEAO 2) was sensitive in the energy range 0.5 to 4.5 keV to fluxes as low as 4x10 to the 12th power ergs/cu cm/s. Good spectra were obtained for 19 stars, including Algol, 7 RS CVn systems, 2 dMe stars, 2 W UMa binaries, 1 GV single star, and 3 0B supergiants, 2 BV stars and 1 07 binary. This is a very incomplete survey of stellar coronae, but it does include coverage of several late and early types and usually more than 1 sample of the class. The results for these stars suggest two generalizations despite the small numbers: (1) there is a broad variety of X-ray spectra of stellar coronae; and (2) there probably are X-ray spectral types (X-ray coronae of stars of similar other properties have similar temperatures). Evidence indicating that some emission distributions are bimodal is discussed. Finally, some remarks are made concerning the spectra of the early type stars and constraints on the presence of very high temperatures.

Swank, J. H.↗

Failure detection and accommodation in structural dynamics systems using analytic redundancy

The concept of analytic redundancy is extended to identify nonzero constant output failures in large spacecraft active control sensors and actuators, using a set of distributed sensors which do not nominally produce equivalent signals but are related through the structural dynamics of the system. The suboptimal technique uses a Sequential Probability Ratio Test on the residual sequence of a Kalman filter based on a modal structure model, to determine failure of a component based on an assumed failure hypothesis. The specific failure is identified and then the Kalman filter gains are reconfigured for the identified remaining working sensor set. Experimental data using an apparatus whose dynamics are representative of a large spacecraft show the nominal filter performance under failed and unfailed conditions.

Williams, J. P.↗

Collision-induced squeezing in a harmonic oscillator

The concept of squeezing has so far been applied mainly to light, as is evidenced by the number of research works on the subject of squeezed light. Since, in quantum mechanics, both light and the simple harmonic oscillator are described within the same mathematical framework, there is of course no difficulty in applying the concept to the simple harmonic oscillator as well. In fact, the theoretical development of squeezed states and squeezed light owes much to the physical insights that one obtains as the analogy between light and the harmonic oscillator is exploited. The example presented shows clearly that two states with different phases in general have different degrees of squeezing, even if they have the same state distribution. This means that, even if one considers collision processes that produce the same state distribution, the degree of squeezing obtained during and after the collisions can be quite different, depending on how the phases phi(sub n) of the probability amplitudes develop in time as the collisions proceed. It is therefore evident that, for a detailed study of collision-induced squeezing, further study on the time development of the phases in collisions and its relation to collision parameters such as potential energy surfaces and collision energy is needed.

Lee, Hai-Woong↗

"Novel Techniques in Non-Stationary Analysis of Rotorcraft Vibration Signitures"

This research effort produced new methods to analyze the performance of linear predictors that track non-stationary processes. Specifically, prediction methods have been applied to the vibration pattern of rotorcraft drivetrains. This analysis is part or a larger rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring System (HUMS) that can diagnose immediate failures of the subsystems, as indicated by abrupt change in the vibration signature, and prognosticate future health, by examining the vibration patterns against long-term trends. This problem is described by a earlier joint paper co-authored by members of the funding agency and the recipient institutions prior to this grant effort. Specific accomplishments under this grant include the following: (1) Definition of a framework for analysis of non-stationary time-series estimation using the coefficients of an adaptive filter. (2) Description of a novel method of combining short-term predictor error and long-term regression error to analyze the performance of a non-stationary predictor. (3) Formulation of a multi-variate probability density function that quantifies the performance of a adaptive predictor by using the short- and long-term error variables in a Gamma function distribution. and (4) Validation of the mathematical formulations with empirical data from NASA flight tests and simulated data to illustrate the utility beyond the domain of vibrating machinery.

Meng, Teresa↗

Measurement of Attenuation with Airborne and Ground-Based Radar in Convective Storms Over Land and Its Microphysical Implications

Observations by the airborne X-band Doppler radar (EDOP) and the NCAR S-band polarimetric (S-POL) radar from two field experiments are used to evaluate the Surface ref'ercnce technique (SRT) for measuring the path integrated attenuation (PIA) and to study attenuation in deep convective storms. The EDOP, flying at an altitude of 20 km, uses a nadir beam and a forward pointing beam. It is found that over land, the surface scattering cross-section is highly variable at nadir incidence but relatively stable at forward incidence. It is concluded that measurement by the forward beam provides a viable technique for measuring PIA using the SRT. Vertical profiles of peak attenuation coefficient are derived in vxo deep convective storms by the dual-wavelength method. Using the measured Doppler velocity, the reflectivities at. the two wavelengths, the differential reflectivity and the estimated attenuation coefficients, it is shown that: supercooled drops and dry ice particles probably co-existed above the melting level in regions of updraft, that water-coated partially melted ice particles probably contributed to high attenuation below the melting level, and that the data are not readil~ explained in terms of a gamma function raindrop size distribution.

Tian, Lin↗