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DOE OSTI2020

Validation of MCNP Critical Benchmark Models of Moderated Highly Enriched Uranium Slabs

A new centralized repository of high-quality MCNP models of critical benchmark experiments is currently under development at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The benchmark experiments are described in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook, and the initial set of benchmark models are derived from the Whisper Suite provided with MCNP6.2. This effort is a collaboration among the Nuclear Criticality Safety, Nuclear Data, and Monte Carlo code development/application organizations at LANL. The goal is to build a single LANL benchmark collection that is up to date with the latest ICSBEP revision, has a formal review and revision process, is contained in an open-source repository, and utilizes new Python tools for improved input and output file review. This paper describes the validation of the models associated with HEU-MET-FAST-007, “Uranium Metal Slabs Moderated with Polyethylene, Plexiglas, and Teflon”. The Monte Carlo n-Particle (MCNP) models were compared to the second revision of HEU-MET-FAST-007. The experiment considered critical configurations of highly enriched uranium (HEU) metal slabs and various moderators in 43 unique cases. The slabs of uranium were separated by layers of moderating material, forming an assembly. The assembly was separated in two halves with one half placed on a stationary table and the other attached to a moveable table that could be raised and lowered via pulleys connected to the ceiling of the shielded room. To reach criticality, the two halves were brought together with a negligible gap between the assemblies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design and validation of a gamma-ray scanning system for measuring irradiated nuclear fuel

We report a prototype gamma-ray scanning system was designed to perform post-irradiation measurements of nuclear fuel at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The system is composed of a coaxial high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector, a collimator, and mechanical positioning stages that translate the fuel sample across the front of the collimator. This paper documents the design process, modeling and the laboratory characterization performed to validate the system. The modeling of the system was done using the Monte Carlo N-Particle code with vendor-supplied design specifications, dimensional measurements, and x-ray radiographs of the HPGe detector. The characterization included measurements of calibrated radiation sources in different geometries, and calculations for absolute efficiency and dead time. Benchmark measurements were performed scanning an irradiated fuel rodlet containing ten pellets of 4.9% enriched UO2 in zirconium alloy. These results were compared to simulated spectra to further help characterize the detector model. One goal of the system is to determine the number of fissions per gram of UO2 in the fuel; comparison of the results from this prototype system's assay of the irradiated fuel rodlet are in agreement with previously estimated results.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2019

Exploring experimental conditions to reduce uncertainties in the optical potential

Uncertainty quantification for nuclear theories has gained a more prominent role in the field, with more groups attempting to understand the uncertainties in their calculations. However, recent studies have shown that the uncertainties on the optical potentials are too large for the theory to be useful. The goal of this work is to explore possible experimental conditions that may reduce the uncertainties on elastic scattering and single-nucleon transfer cross sections that come from the fitting of the optical model parameters to experimental data. Using Bayesian methods, we explore the effect of the uncertainties of optical model parameters on the angular grid of the differential cross section, including cross-section data at nearby energies, and changes in the experimental error bars. We also study the effect on the resulting uncertainty when other observables are included in the fitting procedure, particularly the total (reaction) cross sections. We study proton and neutron elastic scattering on 48 Ca and 208 Pb. We explore the parameter space with the Markov-chain Monte Carlo method, produce posterior distributions for the optical model parameters, and construct the corresponding 95% confidence intervals on the elastic-scattering cross sections. We also propagate the uncertainties on the optical potentials to the 48 Ca(d,p) 49 Ca(g.s.) and 208 Pb(d,p) 209 Pb(g.s.) cross sections. We find little sensitivity to the angular grid and an improvement of up to a factor of 2 on the uncertainties by including data at a nearby energy. Although reducing the error bars on the data does reduce the uncertainty, the gain is often considerably smaller than one would naively expect. We also find that the inclusion of total reaction cross section can improve the uncertainty although the magnitude of the effect depends strongly on the cases considered.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

Updating Mars-GRAM to Increase the Accuracy of Sensitivity Studies at Large Optical Depths

The Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) is an engineering-level atmospheric model widely used for diverse mission applications. Mars-GRAM s perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). During the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process, it was discovered that Mars-GRAM, when used for sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depth values such as tau=3, is less than realistic. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear set to 0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. This has resulted in an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes. As a preliminary fix to this pressure-density problem, density factor values were determined for tau=0.3, 1 and 3 that will adjust the input values of MGCM MapYear 0 pressure and density to achieve a better match of Mars-GRAM MapYear 0 with Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) observations for MapYears 1 and 2 at comparable dust loading. Currently, these density factors are fixed values for all latitudes and Ls. Results will be presented from work being done to derive better multipliers by including variation with latitude and/or Ls by comparison of MapYear 0 output directly against TES limb data. The addition of these more precise density factors to Mars-GRAM 2005 Release 1.4 will improve the results of the sensitivity studies done for large optical depths.

Justh, Hiliary L.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design and Validation of a Gammaray Scanning System for Measuring Irradiated Nuclear Fuel

A prototype gamma-ray scanning system was designed to perform post-irradiation measurements of nuclear fuel at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The system is composed of a coaxial high-purity germanium (HPGe) detector, a collimator, and mechanical positioning stages that translate the fuel sample across the front of the collimator. This paper documents the design process, modeling and the laboratory characterization performed to validate the system. The modeling of the system was done using the Monte Carlo N-Particle code with vendor-supplied design specifications, dimensional measurements, and x-ray radiographs of the HPGe detector. The characterization included measurements of calibrated radiation sources in different geometries, and calculations for absolute efficiency and dead time. Benchmark measurements were performed by scanning an irradiated fuel rodlet containing ten pellets of 4.9% enriched UO2 in zirconium alloy. These results were compared to simulated spectra to further help characterize the detector model. One goal of the system is to determine the number of fissions per gram of UO2 in the fuel; comparison of the results from this prototype system's assay of the irradiated fuel rodlet are in agreement with previously estimated results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

DESIGN AND VALIDATION OF A GAMMA-RAY SCANNING SYSTEM FOR MEASURING IRRADIATED NUCLEAR FUEL (ABSTRACT)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multiple Rings of Millimeter Dust Emission in the HD 15115 Debris Disk

We present observations of the HD 15115 debris disk from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) at 1.3 mm that capture this intriguing system with the highest resolution (0."6 or 29 au) at millimeter wavelengths to date. This new ALMA image shows evidence for two rings in the disk separated by a cleared gap. By fitting models directly to the observed visibilities within a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework, we are able to characterize the millimeter continuum emission and place robust constraints on the disk structure and geometry. In the best-fit model of a power-law disk with a Gaussian gap, the disk inner and outer edges are at 43.9 ± 5.8 au (0."89 ± 0."12) and 92.2 ± 2.4 au (1."88 ± 0."49), respectively, with a gap located at 58.9 ± 4.5 au (1."2 ± 0."10) with a fractional depth of 0.88 ± 0.10 and a width of 13.8 ± 5.6 au (0."28 ± 0."11). Because we do not see any evidence at millimeter wavelengths for the dramatic east–west asymmetry seen in scattered light, we conclude that this feature most likely results from a mechanism that only affects small grains. Using dynamical modeling and our constraints on the gap properties, we are able to estimate a mass for the possible planet sculpting the gap to be 0.16 ± 0.06 M(sub Jup).

MacGregor, Meredith A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Mars-GRAM 2010: Improving the Precision of Mars-GRAM

It has been discovered during the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) site selection process that the Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM) when used for sensitivity studies for Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) MapYear=0 and large optical depth values, such as tau=3, is less than realistic. Mars-GRAM's perturbation modeling capability is commonly used, in a Monte-Carlo mode, to perform high fidelity engineering end-to-end simulations for entry, descent, and landing (EDL). Mars-GRAM 2005 has been validated against Radio Science data, and both nadir and limb data from TES. Traditional Mars-GRAM options for representing the mean atmosphere along entry corridors include: (1) TES mapping year 0, with user-controlled dust optical depth and Mars-GRAM data interpolated from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) results driven by selected values of globally-uniform dust optical depth, or (2) TES mapping years 1 and 2, with Mars-GRAM data coming from MGCM results driven by observed TES dust optical depth. From the surface to 80 km altitude, Mars-GRAM is based on NASA Ames MGCM. Above 80 km, Mars-GRAM is based on the University of Michigan Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM). MGCM results that were used for Mars-GRAM with MapYear=0 were from a MGCM run with a fixed value of tau=3 for the entire year at all locations. This choice of data has led to discrepancies that have become apparent during recent sensitivity studies for MapYear=0 and large optical depths. Unrealistic energy absorption by time-invariant atmospheric dust leads to an unrealistic thermal energy balance on the polar caps. The outcome is an inaccurate cycle of condensation/sublimation of the polar caps and, as a consequence, an inaccurate cycle of total atmospheric mass and global-average surface pressure. Under an assumption of unchanged temperature profile and hydrostatic equilibrium, a given percentage change in surface pressure would produce a corresponding percentage change in density at all altitudes. Consequently, the final result of a change in surface pressure is an imprecise atmospheric density at all altitudes.

Justh, H. L.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

NASA NTRS1993

Discrete range clustering using Monte Carlo methods

For automatic obstacle avoidance guidance during rotorcraft low altitude flight, a reliable model of the nearby environment is needed. Such a model may be constructed by applying surface fitting techniques to the dense range map obtained by active sensing using radars. However, for covertness, passive sensing techniques using electro-optic sensors are desirable. As opposed to the dense range map obtained via active sensing, passive sensing algorithms produce reliable range at sparse locations, and therefore, surface fitting techniques to fill the gaps in the range measurement are not directly applicable. Both for automatic guidance and as a display for aiding the pilot, these discrete ranges need to be grouped into sets which correspond to objects in the nearby environment. The focus of this paper is on using Monte Carlo methods for clustering range points into meaningful groups. One of the aims of the paper is to explore whether simulated annealing methods offer significant advantage over the basic Monte Carlo method for this class of problems. We compare three different approaches and present application results of these algorithms to a laboratory image sequence and a helicopter flight sequence.

Chatterji, G. B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Post-Calibration Uncertainty Analysis for Travel Times at a Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant

The Naval Weapons Industrial Reserve Plant (NWIRP) in McGregor, Texas began manufacturing explosives in 1980 and several hazardous chemicals were discovered in lakes and streams surrounding the site in 1998. Contaminants traveled to local lakes and streams much faster than initially predicted. This research estimated contaminant travel times and identified locations where monitoring wells should be installed to yield the greatest reductions in uncertainties in travel-time predictions. To this end, groundwater and particle-tracking models for NWIRP site were built to predict hydraulic heads and contaminant travel times. Next, parameter (hydraulic conductivities) uncertainties, parameter identifiabilities, observation (hydraulic heads) worth, and predictive (contaminant travel times) uncertainties were quantified. Parameter uncertainties were reduced by up to 92%; a total of 19 of 158 parameters were at least moderately identifiable; travel-time uncertainties were reduced up to 92%. Additionally, travel-time predictions and post-calibration parameter distributions were generated using the null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) technique. NSMC predicted that conservative tracers exited the flow system within a year, which matches with field data. Finally, an observations-worth analysis found that additional 11 more measurements would reduce travel-time uncertainties by factors from 1.04 to 4.3 over existing data if monitoring wells were installed at the suggested locations.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1973

Atmospheric secondary gamma radiation

A theoretical model in the form of a three-dimensional Monte Carlo calculation is developed that starts with known cosmic ray flux at the top of the atmosphere and follows particles as they interact with the atmosphere for a schematic representation of how atmospheric secondary gamma rays are produced. The model predicts atmospheric secondary gamma radiation as a function of altitude, energy, and zenith angle.

Thompson, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Monte Carlo simulations of particle acceleration at oblique shocks

The Fermi shock acceleration mechanism may be responsible for the production of high-energy cosmic rays in a wide variety of environments. Modeling of this phenomenon has largely focused on plane-parallel shocks, and one of the most promising techniques for its study is the Monte Carlo simulation of particle transport in shocked fluid flows. One of the principal problems in shock acceleration theory is the mechanism and efficiency of injection of particles from the thermal gas into the accelerated population. The Monte Carlo technique is ideally suited to addressing the injection problem directly, and previous applications of it to the quasi-parallel Earth bow shock led to very successful modeling of proton and heavy ion spectra, as well as other observed quantities. Recently this technique has been extended to oblique shock geometries, in which the upstream magnetic field makes a significant angle Theta(sub B1) to the shock normal. Spectral resutls from test particle Monte Carlo simulations of cosmic-ray acceleration at oblique, nonrelativistic shocks are presented. The results show that low Mach number shocks have injection efficiencies that are relatively insensitive to (though not independent of) the shock obliquity, but that there is a dramatic drop in efficiency for shocks of Mach number 30 or more as the obliquity increases above 15 deg. Cosmic-ray distributions just upstream of the shock reveal prominent bumps at energies below the thermal peak; these disappear far upstream but might be observable features close to astrophysical shocks.

Baring, Matthew G.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The role of high-order electron correlation effects in a model system for non-valence correlation-bound anions

The diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC), auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC), and equation-of-motion coupled cluster (EOM-CC) methods are used to calculate the electron binding energy (EBE) of the non-valence anion state of a model (H2O)4 cluster. Two geometries are considered, one at which the anion is unbound and the other at which it is bound in the Hartree–Fock (HF) approximation. It is demonstrated that DMC calculations can recover from the use of a HF trial wave function that has collapsed onto a discretized continuum solution, although larger EBEs are obtained when using a trial wave function for the anion that provides a more realistic description of the charge distribution and, hence, of the nodal surface. For the geometry at which the cluster has a non-valence correlation-bound anion, both the inclusion of triples in the EOM-CC method and the inclusion of supplemental diffuse d functions in the basis set are important. DMC calculations with suitable trial wave functions give EBE values in good agreement with our best estimate EOM-CC result. AFQMC using a trial wave function for the anion with a realistic electron density gives a value of the EBE nearly identical to the EOM-CC result when using the same basis set. For the geometry at which the anion is bound in the HF approximation, the inclusion of triple excitations in the EOM-CC calculations is much less important. The best estimate EOM-CC EBE value is in good agreement with the results of DMC calculations with appropriate trial wave functions.

Upadhyay, Shiv (ORCID:0000000285010501)↗

NASA NTRS2017

Building Thermal Models

This presentation is meant to be an overview of the model building process It is based on typical techniques (Monte Carlo Ray Tracing for radiation exchange, Lumped Parameter, Finite Difference for thermal solution) used by the aerospace industry This is not intended to be a "How to Use ThermalDesktop" course. It is intended to be a "How to Build Thermal Models" course and the techniques will be demonstrated using the capabilities of ThermalDesktop (TD). Other codes may or may not have similar capabilities. The General Model Building Process can be broken into four top level steps: 1. Build Model; 2. Check Model; 3. Execute Model; 4. Verify Results.

Modeling↗

DOE OSTI2021

Strong-coupling expansion of multi-band interacting models: Mapping onto the transverse-field J 1 - J 2 Ising model

We investigate a class of two-dimensional two-band microscopic models in which the inter-band repulsive interactions play the dominant role. We first demonstrate three different schemes of constraining the ratios between the three types of inter-band interactions – density-density, spin exchange, and pair-hopping – that render the model free of the fermionic sign-problem for any filling and, consequently, amenable to efficient Quantum Monte Carlo simulations. We then study the behavior of these sign-problem-free models in the strong-coupling regime. In the cases where spin-rotational invariance is preserved or lowered to a planar symmetry, the strong-coupling ground state is a quantum paramagnet. However, in the case where there is only a residual Ising symmetry, the strong-coupling expansion maps onto the transverse-field J 1 - J 2 Ising model, whose pseudospins are associated with local inter-band magnetic order. We show that by varying the band structure parameters within a reasonable range of values, a variety of ground states and quantum critical points can be accessed in the strong-coupling regime, some of which are not realized in the weak-coupling regime. Here, we compare these results with the case of the single-band Hubbard model, where only intra-band repulsion is present, and whose strong-coupling behavior is captured by a simple Heisenberg model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Boosted decision tree reweighting of simulated neutrino interactions for O ( 1 ) GeV neutrino cross-section measurements

This paper illustrates a generic method for multidimensional reweighting of O ( 1 ) GeV neutrino interaction Monte Carlo samples. The reweighting is based on a boosted decision tree algorithm trained on high-dimensional space in detector final-state observables. This enables one generator’s events to be reweighted so that its reconstructed particle content and kinematics distributions, as well as detector efficiency, match those of a target model. The approach establishes an efficient way to reuse legacy Monte Carlo data, avoiding regeneration. As an example, we test its use in a measurement of transverse kinematic imbalance of the μ - and proton in charged-current quasielastic like ν μ events from the MINERvA experiment.

Lin, Z. [Rochester U.] (ORCID:0009000188903698)↗