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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical measures of Planck scale signal correlations in interferometers

Here, a model-independent statistical framework is presented to interpret data from systems where the mean time derivative of positional cross correlation between world lines, a measure of spreading in a quantum geometrical wave function, is measured with a precision smaller than the Planck time. The framework provides a general way to constrain possible departures from perfect independence of classical world lines, associated with Planck scale bounds on positional information. A parametrized candidate set of possible correlation functions is shown to be consistent with the known causal structure of the classical geometry measured by an apparatus, and the holographic scaling of information suggested by gravity. Frequency-domain power spectra are derived that can be compared with interferometer data. As a result, simple projections of sensitivity for specific experimental set-ups suggests that measurements will directly yield constraints on a universal time derivative of the correlation function, and thereby confirm or rule out a class of Planck scale departures from classical geometry.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Global Model for Estimating Atmospheric Phase Scintillation Statistics

Since 2007, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been collecting atmospheric phase turbulence data from various NASA ground stations throughout the world. The goal of these measurement campaigns has been to generate statistics to characterize the local site turbulence conditions and their impact on widely distributed ground based antenna arrays. This is of critical importance for the situation of uplink arraying, in which a priori knowledge of the fast varying turbulent conditions of water vapor in the troposphere may not be known, and will impact the power combining efficiency of ground based transmitting arrays. Therefore, the design of these type of systems will be dependent on the local climatology of the particular ground station site. Based on the 30+ station years of data collected characterizing atmospheric phase scintillation statistics at various sites, a global model is presented which attempts to predict the average phase statistics of a generic site based on local surface weather data, such as surface pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and median wind direction. A model is proposed and based on a standard log power distribution similar to amplitude scintillation models trained on the existing data sets and shows reasonable accuracy against existing data sets.

propagation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistically-informed deep learning for gravitational wave parameter estimation

We introduce deep learning models to estimate the masses of the binary components of black hole mergers, $(m_1,m_2)$, and three astrophysical properties of the post-merger compact remnant, namely, the final spin, $a_\mathrm f$, and the frequency and damping time of the ringdown oscillations of the fundamental $\ell = m = 2$ bar mode, $(\omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$. Our neural networks combine a modified WaveNet architecture with contrastive learning and normalizing flow. We validate these models against a Gaussian conjugate prior family whose posterior distribution is described by a closed analytical expression. Upon confirming that our models produce statistically consistent results, we used them to estimate the astrophysical parameters $(m_1,m_2, a_\mathrm f, \omega_\mathrm R, \omega_\mathrm I)$ of five binary black holes: GW150914, GW170104, GW170814, GW190521 and GW190630. We use PyCBC Inference to directly compare traditional Bayesian methodologies for parameter estimation with our deep learning based posterior distributions. Our results show that our neural network models predict posterior distributions that encode physical correlations, and that our data-driven median results and 90% confidence intervals are similar to those produced with gravitational wave Bayesian analyses. This methodology requires a single V100 NVIDIA GPU to produce median values and posterior distributions within two milliseconds for each event. Furthermore, this neural network, and a tutorial for its use, are available at the Data and Learning Hub for Science.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Physics based Reliability Models for Supercritical CO 2 Turbomachinery Components

CSP plants using sCO 2 power cycle can potentially achieve high thermal conversion efficiency at low capital cost due to compact turbo-machinery and other components. An sCO 2 expander and improved heat exchanger is expected to provide a major stepping stone for achieving CSP power at $0.06/kW-hr LCOE, energy conversion efficiency > 50%, and total power block cost < $1,200/kW installed. Hybrid gas bearings (HGB) and Dry gas seals (DGS) are two key components that are critical for robust and efficient operation of future sCO 2 power cycles. From a system perspective, HGBs can provide substantial benefits (~3 to 5%) to the modular CSP operation, while use of DGSs limits the leakage losses as well as the windage losses in the generator and can increase overall generator efficiency by ~ 8%. The life limiting mechanisms of HGBs and DGSs in high pressure, high temperature sCO2 environment were not well understood and hence this program aims at developing physics-based performance prediction and life prediction models for these two components. The output of the performance models serves as input to the life models. The performance models were validated using experimental data and using data from literature. DGS and HGB models have shed light on some risks associated with its operation in sCO2 expander and will guide more robust designs tailored towards sCO 2 cycle applications. A DGS was tested in 1MWe sCO2 turbo expander to study its performance and validate the performance models. To understand the effect of high pressures, high temperatures and sCO 2 environment on crack initiation, crack propagation and LCF/HCF life of these components, a novel experimental setup was developed. The LCF test data was used to calibrate and validate the life prediction models. The effect of sCO 2 corrosion on the life of Ni-based super-alloys is quantified using long duration experiments. Advanced microstructure and spectroscopic analyses conducted shed light on some key differences between IN718 and IN617 in terms of oxidation morphology, chemical species diffusion and trapping, the formation of protective corrosion resistant layers and changes in surface properties. A novel crack initiation model was developed which takes into account strain distribution, temperature, hold times and activation energy at the gas-metal interface and predicts the number of cycles to initiate the crack in the Inconel alloy. An advanced 3D fracture mechanics-based crack propagation model was also developed which takes into account the transient loading mission of the component and predict how fast the crack will grow and what will be its final shape and size. High energy X-Ray tomography measurements were conducted to study and validate 3D morphology of crack growth inside the specimen. These two models along with chemical kinetics models obtained from corrosion tests can be combined to predict the total life of the component under given long term operating conditions. A Bayesian Hybrid Modeling (BHM) probabilistic framework was developed to quantify uncertainty in physics-based performance models and in crack initiation and crack propagation models, to calibrate the models and to validate the models with statistical confidence. Advanced coupled physics multi-phase flow models were developed to study condensation, boiling and phase change behavior of CO 2 under various sCO 2 turbomachinery and heat exchanger conditions. A novel experimental setup was also designed to observe phase change of CO 2 during its transition across liquid-gas-supercritical state lines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Physics based Reliability Models for Supercritical CO 2 Turbomachinery Components

CSP plants using sCO 2 power cycle can potentially achieve high thermal conversion efficiency at low capital cost due to compact turbo-machinery and other components. An sCO 2 expander and improved heat exchanger is expected to provide a major stepping stone for achieving CSP power at 0.06/kW-hr LCOE, energy conversion efficiency > 50 % ,and total power block cost< $1,200/kW installed. Hybrid gas bearings (HGB) and Dry gas seals (DGS) are two key components that are critical for robust and efficient operation of future sCO 2 power cycles. From a system perspective, HGBs can provide substantial benefits (~3 to 5%) to the modular CSP operation, while use of DGSs limits the leakage losses as well as the windage losses in the generator and can increase overall generator efficiency by ~ 8%. The life limiting mechanisms of HGBs and DGSs in high pressure, high temperature sCO 2 environment were not well understood and hence this program aims at developing physics-based performance prediction and life prediction models for these two components. The output of the performance models serves as input to the life models. The performance models were validated using experimental data and using data from literature. DGS and HGB models have shed light on some risks associated with its operation in sCO 2 expander and will guide more robust designs tailored towards sCO 2 cycle applications. A DGS was tested in 1MWe sCO 2 turbo expander to study its performance and validate the performance models. To understand the effect of high pressures, high temperatures and sCO 2 environment on crack initiation, crack propagation and LCF/HCF life of these components, a novel experimental setup was developed. The LCF test data was used to calibrate and validate the life prediction models. The effect of sCO 2 corrosion on the life of Ni-based super-alloys is quantified using long duration experiments. Advanced microstructure and spectroscopic analyses conducted shed light on some key differences between IN718 and IN617 in terms of oxidation morphology, chemical species diffusion and trapping, the formation of protective corrosion resistant layers and changes in surface properties. A novel crack initiation model was developed which takes into account strain distribution, temperature, hold times and activation energy at the gas-metal interface and predicts the number of cycles to initiate the crack in the Inconel alloy. An advanced 3D fracture mechanics-based crack propagation model was also developed which takes into account the transient loading mission of the component and predict how fast the crack will grow and what will be its final shape and size. High energy X-Ray tomography measurements were conducted to study and validate 3D morphology of crack growth inside the specimen. These two models along with chemical kinetics models obtained from corrosion tests can be combined to predict the total life of the component under given long term operating conditions. A Bayesian Hybrid Modeling (BHM) probabilistic framework was developed to quantify uncertainty in physics-based performance models and in crack initiation and crack propagation models, to calibrate the models and to validate the models with statistical confidence. Advanced coupled physics multi-phase flow models were developed to study condensation, boiling and phase change behavior of CO 2 under various sCO 2 turbomachinery and heat exchanger conditions. A novel experimental setup was also designed to observe phase change of CO 2 during its transition across liquid-gas-supercritical state lines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1978

Five micron limb-darkening and the structure of the Jovian atmosphere

A combined radiative, dynamical, and chemical model of the Jovian atmosphere is presented which reproduces the observed IR limb-darkening curves for several regions on the disk of Jupiter. Two approaches are used to perform the inversion required for determination of the source function, and a power-series-expansion model is examined, along with a convective-equilibrium model, cloud and intermediate-zone models, and a thin-shell model. The statistical methods used in the analysis are outlined, and model fits to the observations are discussed. The chemistry of phase transitions in the hot spots of Jupiter's equatorial belt is briefly investigated.

Newman, W. I.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searches for New Physics With Muon Conversion at Fermilab and Triboson Production at the LHC

We report on several efforts to search for physics beyond the standard model of particle physics at broad energy scales. The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for charged lepton flavor violation via the muon to electron conversion process, which is suppressed in the Standard Model. Mu2e will be operated at a low energy, yet can probe New Physics at very high mass scales (O(1e3 - 1e4 ) TeV). At high energies, the CMS experiment at the CERN LHC continues to deliver an impressive suite of Standard Model measurements and limits on a variety of New Physics signatures. Mu2e is under construction and slated to collect its first physics data in the coming years. This thesis describes work done during the construction phase of Mu2e and focuses on two critical areas: magnetic field modeling and statistical analysis. We describe a novel method for field modeling which we validate using a simulated dataset representing the expected magnetic field in the Detector Solenoid. This method blends a standard least-squares fitting technique that utilizes physically motivated analytical model functions with a novel physics informed network that is constructed to obey Maxwell’s equations. We show the technique can model the field with an accuracy of 10−7 despite the presence of injected noise in the pseudo-measurements at the 10−5 level. We then present preliminary results of the calibration of 3D Hall probes at the sub-10−4 level. These probes will be used to directly measure the Mu2e Detector Solenoid magnetic field on a sparse grid; these measurements serve as the input to the field model fitting. Finally, we describe the first implementation of both an unbinned shape analysis and a Bayesian interpretation applied to Mu2e pseudo-data. Up to 20% tighter limits can be set by the shape analysis compared to a standard cut & count analysis. The AlCap experiment collected data at PSI in 2015 to measure several important quantities related to nuclear muon capture on an aluminum target, which is a significant background process for Mu2e. The neutron emission from muon capture can introduce background hits in the Mu2e detectors and can increase radiation damage in various elements of the apparatus. We present measurements of the neutron group fluence and mean neutron multiplicity for muon capture on aluminum nuclei. Finally, we discuss an analysis of triboson production at CMS using an Effective Field Theory framework. Standard Model triboson production, which was first observed at CMS in 2020, has a relatively small cross section and provides direct access to both anomalous triple gauge couplings and quartic gauge couplings. These couplings, interpreted in the Standard Model Effective Field Theory, are studied in the present work. We target the boosted regime where the background rate is low and yields are enhanced when dimension-6 and dimension-8 Wilson coefficients are non-zero. We do not observe an excess in the data and therefore set bounds on the Wilson coefficients. For dimension-6 coefficients the tightest observed (expected) bounds are set on cW /Λ2 where Λ is the mass scale of new physics; the bounds are [−0.13, 0.12] TeV−2 ([−0.12, 0.12] TeV−2 ) at 95% CL. The tightest bounds in dimension-8 are set on fT,0 / Λ4 ; the observed (expected) bounds at 95% CL are [−0.63, 0.69] TeV−4 ([−0.54, 0.62] TeV−4 ). Additional results are presented which include scenarios where multiple Wilson coefficients are non-zero, the application of signal model clipping to address unitarity violation in Effective Field Theories, and a novel template fit developed for easier reinterpretation of our results.

Kampa, Cole Erik [Northwestern U. (main)] (ORCID:0↗
NASA NTRS1999

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of LOCA2 and STAR-ESDM Statistically Downscaled Products

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is the preeminent national report examining current and future risks posed by climate change. Countless agencies, policymakers, stakeholders and other end-users rely upon guidance from the NCA to plan for an uncertain future. These groups all depend on modern curated data, provided alongside the NCA, to quantify the impact of climate change on metrics of relevance for their decision processes. In its fifth iteration (NCA5), two statistically downscaled ensemble products, each providing data at grid spacing of approximately 5km over the contiguous United States, were selected to accompany the report. These include LOCalized Analogs version 2 (LOCA2) and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical-Statistical Downscaling Model (STAR-ESDM). Both data products are produced through a process known as statistical downscaling, where relatively coarse Global Climate Model (GCM) data is refined to locally relevant scales through the application of scientifically-supported empirical and algorithmic relationships. In support of the NCA effort, this report provides an independent validation of these two products against historical observations, with a focus on precipitation and near-surface temperature variables. Based on the results of this validation, several recommendations are provided related to the use of these data products. The structure of this report is as follows: In section 2, we review three gridded observational products that are used as part of our intercomparison. In section 3, we describe the two statistical downscaling techniques and their corresponding datasets that are the focus of this study. In section 4, the methodology we employ for validation is described. Section 5 provides results of the validation, which in turn motivate our recommendations on the use of these data products. A brief summary is provided in section 6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Statistical Evaluation of Utilization of the ISS

PayLoad Utilization Modeler (PLUM) is a statistical-modeling computer program used to evaluate the effectiveness of utilization of the International Space Station (ISS) in terms of the number of research facilities that can be operated within a specified interval of time. PLUM is designed to balance the requirements of research facilities aboard the ISS against the resources available on the ISS. PLUM comprises three parts: an interface for the entry of data on constraints and on required and available resources, a database that stores these data as well as the program output, and a modeler. The modeler comprises two subparts: one that generates tens of thousands of random combinations of research facilities and another that calculates the usage of resources for each of those combinations. The results of these calculations are used to generate graphical and tabular reports to determine which facilities are most likely to be operable on the ISS, to identify which ISS resources are inadequate to satisfy the demands upon them, and to generate other data useful in allocation of and planning of resources.

Andrews, Ross↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗
NASA NTRS2012

Human Thermal Model Evaluation Using the JSC Human Thermal Database

Human thermal modeling has considerable long term utility to human space flight. Such models provide a tool to predict crew survivability in support of vehicle design and to evaluate crew response in untested space environments. It is to the benefit of any such model not only to collect relevant experimental data to correlate it against, but also to maintain an experimental standard or benchmark for future development in a readily and rapidly searchable and software accessible format. The Human thermal database project is intended to do just so; to collect relevant data from literature and experimentation and to store the data in a database structure for immediate and future use as a benchmark to judge human thermal models against, in identifying model strengths and weakness, to support model development and improve correlation, and to statistically quantify a model s predictive quality. The human thermal database developed at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) is intended to evaluate a set of widely used human thermal models. This set includes the Wissler human thermal model, a model that has been widely used to predict the human thermoregulatory response to a variety of cold and hot environments. These models are statistically compared to the current database, which contains experiments of human subjects primarily in air from a literature survey ranging between 1953 and 2004 and from a suited experiment recently performed by the authors, for a quantitative study of relative strength and predictive quality of the models.

Bue, Grant↗
DOE OSTI2015

Simplified predictive models for CO 2 sequestration performance assessment

CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations is increasingly being considered as a viable strategy for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources. In this context, detailed numerical simulation based models are routinely used to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration following CO2 injection into the subsurface. As these models are data and computation intensive, the development of computationally-efficient alternatives to conventional numerical simulators has become an active area of research. Such simplified models can be valuable assets during preliminary CO2 injection project screening, serve as a key element of probabilistic system assessment modeling tools, and assist regulators in quickly evaluating geological storage projects. We present three strategies for the development and validation of simplified modeling approaches for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations: (1) simplified physics-based modeling, (2) statisticallearning based modeling, and (3) reduced-order method based modeling. In the first category, a set of full-physics compositional simulations is used to develop correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of the CO2 fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. Furthermore, the dimensionless average pressure buildup after the onset of boundary effects can be correlated to dimensionless time, CO2 plume footprint, and storativity contrast between the reservoir and caprock. In the second category, statistical “proxy models” are developed using the simulation domain described previously with two approaches: (a) classical Box-Behnken experimental design with a quadratic response surface, and (b) maximin Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a multidimensional kriging metamodel fit. For roughly the same number of simulations, the LHS-based metamodel yields a more robust predictive model, as verified by a k-fold cross-validation approach (with data split into training and test sets) as well by validation with an independent dataset. In the third category, a reduced-order modeling procedure is utilized that combines proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) for reducing problem dimensionality with trajectory-piecewise linearization (TPWL) in order to represent system response at new control settings from a limited number of training runs. Significant savings in computational time are observed with reasonable accuracy from the PODTPWL reduced-order model for both vertical and horizontal well problems – which could be important in the context of history matching, uncertainty quantification and optimization problems. The simplified physics and statistical learning based models are also validated using an uncertainty analysis framework. Reference cumulative distribution functions of key model outcomes (i.e., plume radius and reservoir pressure buildup) generated using a 97-run full-physics simulation are successfully validated against the CDF from 10,000 sample probabilistic simulations using the simplified models. The main contribution of this research project is the development and validation of a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

A new approach for determining fully empirical altimeter wind speed model functions

A statistical technique is developed for determining fully empirical model functions relating altimeter backscatter (sigma(sub 0)) measurements to near-surface neutral stability wind speed. By assuming that sigma(sub 0) varies monotonically and uniquely with wind speed, the method requires knowledge only of the separate, rather than joint distribution functions of sigma(sub 0) and wind speed. Analytic simplifications result from using a Weibull distribution to approximate the global ocean wind speed distribution; several different wind data sets are used to demonstrate the validity of the Weibull approximation. The technique has been applied to 1 year of Geosat data. Validation of the new and historical model functions using an independent buoy data set demonstrates that the present model function not only has small overall bias and root mean square (RMS) errors, but yields smaller systematic error trends with wind speed and pseudowave age than previously published models. The present analysis suggests that generally accuracte altimeter model functions can be derived without the use of colocated measurements, nor is additional significant wave height information measured by the altimeter necessary.

Freilich, M. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

An introduction to the significance of sample size in particle analyses for nuclear forensics and radiological investigations

Particulate isotopic analysis in nuclear forensics has developed rapidly during the past two decades due to technical advances in determining the isotopic composition of individual particles. This paper introduces basic statistical concepts that can be applied by analysts to understand the importance of statistical adequacy when interpretating particle data. While these basic statistical methods provide a useful point-of-entry to particle data analysis, more sophisticated statistical and modeling approaches are needed to extract maximal information from such datasets in the future.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

A method for determining optimal electric range by considering electric vehicle lightweighting on perceived ownership cost

The limited driving range due to high costs and low energy densities of batteries constraints the battery electric vehicle (BEV) market growth. Lightweighting in theory can reduce energy consumption rate and extend the driving range. The knowledge gap is to quantitatively link the cost-effectiveness of light-weight technologies with range extension and consumer acceptance of BEVs. In this study, a physics-based energy consumption model of BEVs is constructed and associated with a statistics-based model on the basis of travel surveys. A perceived cost of ownership (PCO) is then developed by adding intangible costs to traditional total cost of ownership models. We estimate, at the disaggregate vehicle model and driver level and the aggregate market level, 1) the extended range due to lightweighting for a given battery size; and 2) the optimal electric range based on lightweighting decisions. The cost-effectiveness of lightweighting for BEV range extension is found to vary with income-dependent daily range limitation value, driving patterns and lightweighting technology costs. In general, adopting lightweighting in BEVs is more cost-effective for consumers with higher daily limitation value, as well as for those with higher driving intensity or suitable daily driving patterns. When the lightweighting involves a higher vehicle production cost, less lightweighting could reduce the overall PCO for BEV owners. 4 of the selected top ten BEV models are found to benefit from additional 2.09%–4.45% lightweighting. Finally, the method built in this study can guide automakers in planning R&D investments in battery and lightweighting technologies.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving ChemCam LIBS long-distance elemental compositions using empirical abundance trends

The ChemCam instrument on the Curiosity rover provides chemical compositions of Martian rocks and soils using remote laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). The elemental calibration is stable as a function of distance for Ti, Fe, Mg, and Ca. The calibration shows small, systematically increasing abundance trends as a function of distance for Al, Na, K, and to some extent, Si. The distance effect is known to be due to a dependence with distance on the relative strengths of atomic transition lines. Emission lines representing transitions from relatively low energy levels remain intense at longer distances while emission lines representing transitions from higher energy levels decrease in intensity more rapidly as a function of distance. The multivariate algorithms used to determine elemental compositions rely on a large number of emission lines in many cases, so rather than trying to correct all emission lines, a study was made of the predicted compositions as a function of distance, in order to determine an empirical correction. Abundance trends can be well approximated by a linear trend with distance within the ranges of abundances and distances observed up to ~6 m. Data from 11 distinct geological members and data groups of the Murray formation in Gale crater, Mars, were used to form the model, selecting the members and data groups yielding the best statistics. The model was tested using data from several targets observed from two different distances, and using data from the Kimberley formation, the composition of which is significantly different from the Murray formation, showing that the model works on other compositions beyond those used to build the model. For long-distance observations up to ~6 m, corrections can be made back to an equivalent composition at the median distance of ChemCam observations (2.6 m). Finally, the model has been validated up to 6.2 m, although ChemCam is able to observe bedrock targets to >7 m, and iron meteorites to distances of >9 m.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗