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At least 1,531 records · Page 85

Small Body GN&C Research Report: A Guidance and Control Technique for Small-Body Proximity Operations with Guaranteed Guidance Resolvability and Required Thruster Silent Time

The guidance and control (G&C) algorithms for enabling small-body proximity operations are developed by using a model predictive control approach along with a convexification of the governing dynamics, control constraints, and trajectory/state constraints. The open-loop guidance is solved ahead of time or in a resolvable, real-time manner through the use of PWG (Pseudo Way-point Generation), a technique developed in this research. The PWG scheme ensures required thruster silent times during trajectory maneuvers. The feedback control is implemented to track the PWG trajectories in a manner that guarantees the resolvability for the open-loop problem, enabling the ability to update the G&C in a model-predictive manner. The schemes incorporate gravity models and thruster ring times into discrete dynamics that are solved as a optimal control problem to minimize fuel consumption or thruster energy expenditure. The optimal control problem is cast as an LMI (Linear Matrix Inequality) and then solved through Semi-Definite Programming techniques in a computationally efficient manner that provides convergence and constraint guarantees.

guidance and control (G&C)↗

Solar energetic particle events: Statistical modelling and prediction

Solar energetic particle events (SEPEs) can have a significant effect on the design and operation of earth orbiting and interplanetary spacecraft. In relation to this, the calculation of proton fluences and fluxes are considered, describing the current state of the art in statistical modeling. A statistical model that can be used for the estimation of integrated proton fluences for different mission durations of greater than one year is reviewed. The gaps in the modeling capabilities of the SEPE environment, such as a proton flux model, alpha particle and heavy ion models and solar cycle variations are described together with the prospects for the prediction of events using neural networks.

Gabriel, S. B.↗

A discrete vortex model for predicting wing rock of slender wings

The fluid mechanism responsible for generating wing rock of slender sharp-edged delta wings was investigated using an unsteady discrete vortex model developed for that purpose, which is based on results of experimental investigations. Combined experimental and computational results indicate that wing rock is sustained by a lag in the position of the leading edge vortices normal to the surface. Results of comutations also indicate that certain complex aerodynamic problems may be governed primarily by unsteady inviscid phenomena.

Arena, Andrew S., Jr.↗

Engine-in-the-Loop Study of a Hierarchical Predictive Online Controller for Connected and Automated Heavy-Duty Vehicles

This paper presents a cohesive set of engine-in-the-loop (EIL) studies examining the use of hierarchical model-predictive control for fuel consumption minimization in a class-8 heavy-duty truck intended to be equipped with Level-1 connectivity/automation. This work is motivated by the potential of connected/automated vehicle technologies to reduce fuel consumption in both urban/suburban and highway scenarios. The authors begin by presenting a hierarchical model-predictive control scheme that optimizes multiple chassis and powertrain functionalities for fuel consumption. These functionalities include: vehicle routing, arrival/departure at signalized intersections, speed trajectory optimization, platooning, predictive optimal gear shifting, and engine demand torque shaping. The primary optimization goal is to minimize fuel consumption, but the hierarchical controller explicitly accounts for other key objectives/constraints, including operator comfort and safe inter-vehicle spacing. This work is experimentally experimentally validated via a sequence of EIL studies intended for evaluating the computational costs and fuel savings associated with these algorithms. These EIL studies involve the closed-loop validation of the proposed control strategies, both individually and combined. These studies show that this hierarchy of algorithms is capable of running online, with the round-trip communication delay inherent in EIL simulation being one of the key factors affecting the EIL results. Moreover, the EIL studies are encouraging, both in terms of the successful hierarchical integration of the underlying algorithms and also in the resulting fuel savings seen in the EIL tests. In particular, the EIL results suggest that an aggressive overall goal of reducing vehicle fuel consumption by 15-20% or more is potentially achievable, especially in urban/suburban scenarios.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Earth Radiation Imbalance from a Constellation of 66 Iridium Satellites: Climate Science Aspects

The "global warming hiatus" since the 1998 El Nino, highlighted by Meehl et al., and the resulting "missing energy" problem highlighted by Trenberth et al., has opened the door to a more fundamental view of climate change than mere surface air temperature. That new view is based on two variables which are strongly correlated: the rate of change of ocean heat content d(OHC)/dt; and Earth Radiation Imbalance (ERI) at the top of the atmosphere, whose guesstimated range is 0.4 to 0.9 Watts per square meters (this imbalance being mainly due to increasing CO2). The Argo float array is making better and better measurements of OHC. But existing satellite systems cannot measure ERI to even one significant digit. So, climate model predictions of ERI are used in place of real measurements of it, and the satellite data are tuned to the climate model predictions. Some oceanographers say "just depend on Argo for understanding the global warming hiatus and the missing energy", but we don't think this is a good idea because d(OHC)/dt and ERI have different time scales and are never perfectly correlated. We think the ERB community needs to step up to measuring ERI correctly, just as oceanographers have deployed Argo to measure OHC correctly. This talk will overview a proposed constellation of 66 Earth radiation budget instruments, hosted on Iridium satellites, that will actually be able to measure ERI to at least one significant digit, thus enabling a crucial test of climate models. This constellation will also be able to provide ERI at two-hourly time scales and 500-km spatial scales without extrapolations from uncalibrated narrowband geostationary instruments, using the highly successful methods of GRACE to obtain spatial resolution. This high time resolution would make ERI a synoptic variable like temperature, and allow studies of ERI's response to fast-evolving phenomena like dust storms and hurricanes and even brief excursions of Total Solar Irradiance. Time permitting, we will also discuss the emerging view of clear vs. cloudy and its implications for the traditional ERB approach.

Wiscombe, W.↗

Measurement of the top-quark Yukawa coupling from $t\overline{t}$ production in the lepton+jets final state using pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV with the ATLAS detector

The top-quark Yukawa coupling is extracted from the distribution of the top-quark pair ($t\overline{t}$) invariant mass in proton-proton collisions using 140 fb −1 of data at $\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV collected in 2015–2018 by the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. In the region near the production threshold, the $t\overline{t}$ invariant mass spectrum is sensitive to electroweak virtual corrections, including contributions from Higgs boson exchange, thereby providing sensitivity to the top-quark Yukawa coupling. This is the first measurement in ATLAS that aims to obtain this coupling exploiting this approach. The $t\overline{t}$ system is reconstructed in the single-lepton final state, requiring exactly one isolated electron or muon and at least four jets with at least two identified as originating from b-quarks. The measured Yukawa coupling is found to be in good agreement with the Standard Model prediction. An upper limit on the top-quark Yukawa coupling strength of Y t < 2.1 relative to the Standard Model prediction is observed at 95% confidence level, consistent with the expected sensitivity.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗

Measurement of the Zγ production cross section and search for anomalous neutral triple gauge couplings in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s}=13 $ TeV

A measurement of the fiducial cross section of the associated production of a Z boson and a high-p$_{T}$ photon, where the Z decays to two neutrinos, and a search for anomalous triple gauge couplings are reported. The results are based on data collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at $ \sqrt{s}=13 $ TeV during 2016-2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb$^{−1}$. The fiducial Zγ cross section, where a photon with a p$_{T}$ greater than 225 GeV is produced in association with a Z, and the Z decays to a $ \upnu \overline{\upnu} $ pair $ \left(\mathrm{Z}\left(\upnu \overline{\upnu}\right)\upgamma \right) $, is measured to be $ {23.3}_{-1.3}^{+1.4} $ fb, in agreement, within uncertainties, with the standard model prediction. The differential cross section as a function of the photon p$_{T}$ has been measured and compared with standard model predictions computed at next-to-leading and at next-to-next-to-leading order in perturbative quantum chromodynamics. Constraints have been placed on the presence of anomalous couplings that affect the ZZγ and Zγγ vertex using the p$_{T}$ spectrum of the photons. The observed 95% confidence level intervals for CP-conserving $ {h}_3^{\upgamma} $ and $ {h}_4^{\upgamma} $ are determined to be (−3.4, 3.5)×10$^{−4}$ and (−6.8, 6.8)×10$^{−7}$, and for $ {h}_3^{\mathrm{Z}} $ and $ {h}_4^{\mathrm{Z}} $ they are (−2.2, 2.2)×10$^{−4}$ and (−4.1, 4.2)×10$^{−7}$, respectively. These are the strictest limits to date on $ {h}_3^{\upgamma} $, $ {h}_3^{\mathrm{Z}} $ and $ {h}_4^{\mathrm{Z}} $.[graphic not available: see fulltext]

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗

Using a coupled dispersion model to estimate depletion of a tritium oxide plume by a forest

Tritium processing facilities may release tritium oxide (HTO) to the atmosphere which poses potential health risks to exposed co-located workers and to offsite individuals. Most radiological consequence analyses determine HTO dose by applying Gaussian plume models to simulate the transport of HTO. Within these models, deposition velocity is used to assess the sum of all deposition processes acting on the plume. While this may account for vegetative and soil uptake or respiration processes, it may currently lack inclusion of the complex interactions within heterogeneous forested environments. In this complex morphology, dispersion patterns are significantly altered by changing flow regimes above and below the forest canopy and by the transfer of plume material across the canopy boundary. To determine the effects of a heterogeneous forest canopy on an airborne HTO plume, a Gaussian plume model coupled with an advection-diffusion plume model was applied to estimate transport in the free atmosphere above the forest and within the forest canopy and understory. During 2012, wind speed and wind direction measurements taken at 5 heights, ranging from 2-m to 28-m, on an instrumented meteorological tower located in a loblolly pine forest at the Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS), near Aiken, SC. From these measurements, model predictions were made over a full spectrum of meteorological conditions. Deposition and resuspension velocities were calculated based on the model-predicted flux of plume material across the top of the forest canopy. Additionally, net deposition velocity of the plume material was calculated as the difference between the deposition and resuspension velocities. The 1st and 5th percentile net deposition velocities were estimated to be 0.7 cm s-1 and 1.2 cm s-1, respectively.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Microbial inoculants and invasions: a call to action

Microbial inoculants are increasingly used for beneficial purposes in agriculture, bioremediation, and medicine, but they can carry risks of generating invasive microbes. Here, we present a roadmap for guarding against these invasions, proposing developing (i) coherent mechanistic understandings of how microbial inoculants can effect invasions, (ii) predictive models forecasting microbial invasion risks, and (iii) effective management strategies. To guide mechanistic understandings, we distill 17 guiding hypotheses. For predictive modeling, we highlight data collection needs and qualitative approaches. For management strategies, we stress the importance of accurately weighing the risks against benefits. The unified approach presented here provides a route toward an effective research and management infrastructure for microbial inoculants in order to avoid potentially catastrophic microbial invasions.

invasive species↗

Systematically tracking the hourly progression of large wildfires using GOES satellite observations

Abstract. In the western United States, prolonged drought, a warming climate, and historical fuel buildup have contributed to larger and more intense wildfires as well as to longer fire seasons. As these costly wildfires become more common, new tools and methods are essential for improving our understanding of the evolution of fires and how extreme weather conditions, including heat waves, windstorms, droughts, and varying levels of active-fire suppression, influence fire spread. Here, we develop the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES)-Observed Fire Event Representation (GOFER) algorithm to derive the hourly fire progression of large wildfires and create a product of hourly fire perimeters, active-fire lines, and fire spread rates. Using GOES-East and GOES-West geostationary satellite detections of active fires, we test the GOFER algorithm on 28 large wildfires in California from 2019 to 2021. The GOFER algorithm includes parameter optimizations for defining the burned-to-unburned boundary and correcting for the parallax effect from elevated terrain. We evaluate GOFER perimeters using 12 h data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)-derived Fire Event Data Suite (FEDS) and final fire perimeters from the California's Fire and Resource Assessment Program (FRAP). Although the GOES imagery used to derive GOFER has a coarser resolution (2 km at the Equator), the final fire perimeters from GOFER correspond reasonably well to those obtained from FRAP, with a mean Intersection-over-Union (IoU) of 0.77, in comparison to 0.83 between FEDS and FRAP; the IoU indicates the area of overlap over the area of the union relative to the reference perimeters, in which 0 is no agreement and 1 is perfect agreement. GOFER fills a key temporal gap present in other fire tracking products that rely on low-Earth-orbit imagery, where perimeters are available at intervals of 12 h or longer or at ad hoc intervals from aircraft overflights. This is particularly relevant when a fire spreads rapidly, such as at maximum hourly spread rates of over 5 km h−1. Our GOFER algorithm for deriving the hourly fire progression using GOES can be applied to large wildfires across North and South America and reveals considerable variability in the rates of fire spread on diurnal timescales. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates. The resulting GOFER product has a broad set of potential applications, including the development of predictive models for fire spread and the improvement of atmospheric transport models for surface smoke estimates (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8327264, Liu et al., 2023).

Geology↗

A transient site balance model for atomic layer etching

We present a transient site balance model of plasma-assisted atomic layer etching of silicon (Si) with alternating exposure to chlorine gas (Cl 2 ) and argon ions (Ar + ). Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation results are used to provide parameters for the model. The model couples the dynamics of a top monolayer surface region ('top layer') and a perfectly mixed subsurface region ('mixed layer'). The differential equations describing the rates of change of the Cl coverage in the two layers are transient mass balances. Model predictions include Cl coverages and rates of etching of various species from the surface as a function of Cl 2 or Ar + fluence. The simplified phenomenological model reproduces the MD simulation results well over a range of conditions. Comparing model predictions directly to experimental optical emission spectroscopy data, as reported in a previous paper, provides further evidence of the accuracy of the model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Integrating field observations and process-based modeling to predict watershed water quality under environmental perturbations

Watersheds play a critical role in supplying water resources needed for human use and ecosystem health. Understanding and predicting how, when, and where changes in the quantity and quality of water resources occur under different environmental stresses including extreme events is crucial for sustainable management of water resources under a changing environment. However, few studies have attempted to quantify or identify the factors and process interactions controlling the impact of extreme events across water-shed systems. Only few large-scale studies include coordinated monitoring and modeling efforts, which limits our ability to assess the large-scale impact of extreme events on water supply and quality. Methods are lacking to propagate uncertainty in process understanding through an integrated hydro-biogeochemical model framework and evaluate its importance, thus failing to take full advantage of the information potentially available through transformative advances in characterization technologies from high-resolution mass spectrometry to airborne and satellite-based remote sensing. There are consequent risks to our nations water security and to human and ecosystem health that may become exacerbated with the increasing frequency of extreme events that is projected for the coming decades. This paper reviews the current status of watershed science for both water quantity and quality and identifies critical gaps in our current knowledge and modeling capability in addressing the emergent needs in predicting watershed hydrologic and biogeochemical responses (i.e., water quantity and quality) under natural and anthropogenic perturbations. We highlight the need to (1) understand how environmental perturbations including extreme events like floods and droughts propagate through watershed systems and assess their short- and long-term impacts on watershed biogeochemistry, water quality and their recovery pathways; (2) develop and improve a watershed water quality model that reflects the state of scientific understanding gained from observations; and (3) construct a data-model fusion system for watershed characterization, process identification, and mechanistic model parameterization. A large base of modeling, monitoring and data capabilities have been built by various federal government agencies given the relevance of water to their critical missions. An emerging need is to build an integrated national capability for watershed water availability and quality that can address water-related missions across multiple federal agencies.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Simulated plant-mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine-scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands

Methane (CH 4 ) emissions from wetland ecosystems are controlled by redox conditions in the soil, which are currently underrepresented in Earth system models. Plant-mediated radial oxygen loss (ROL) can increase soil O 2 availability, affect local redox conditions, and cause heterogeneous distribution of redox-sensitive chemical species at the root scale, which would affect CH 4 emissions integrated over larger scales. In this study, we used a subsurface geochemical simulator (PFLOTRAN) to quantify the effects of incorporating either spatially homogeneous ROL or more complex heterogeneous ROL on model predictions of porewater solute concentration depth profiles (dissolved organic carbon, methane, sulfate, sulfide) and column integrated CH 4 fluxes for a tidal coastal wetland. From the heterogeneous ROL simulation, we obtained 18% higher column averaged CH 4 concentration at the rooting zone but 5% lower total CH 4 flux compared to simulations of the homogeneous ROL or without ROL. This difference is because lower CH 4 concentrations occurred in the same rhizosphere volume that was directly connected with plant-mediated transport of CH 4 from the rooting zone to the atmosphere. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the impacts of heterogeneous ROL on model predictions of porewater oxygen and sulfide concentrations will be more important under conditions of higher ROL fluxes or more heterogeneous root distribution (lower root densities). Despite the small impact on predicted CH 4 emissions, the simulated ROL drastically reduced porewater concentrations of sulfide, an effective phytotoxin, indicating that incorporating ROL combined with sulfur cycling into ecosystem models could potentially improve predictions of plant productivity in coastal wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A synthetic building operation dataset

Abstract This paper presents a synthetic building operation dataset which includes HVAC, lighting, miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) system operating conditions, occupant counts, environmental parameters, end-use and whole-building energy consumptions at 10-minute intervals. The data is created with 1395 annual simulations using the U.S. DOE detailed medium-sized reference office building, and 30 years’ historical weather data in three typical climates including Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago. Three energy efficiency levels of the building and systems are considered. Assumptions regarding occupant movements, occupants’ diverse temperature preferences, lighting, and MELs are adopted to reflect realistic building operations. A semantic building metadata schema - BRICK, is used to store the building metadata. The dataset is saved in a 1.2 TB of compressed HDF5 file. This dataset can be used in various applications, including building energy and load shape benchmarking, energy model calibration, evaluation of occupant and weather variability and their influences on building performance, algorithm development and testing for thermal and energy load prediction, model predictive control, policy development for reinforcement learning based building controls.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Glass Design Using Machine Learning Property Models with Prediction Uncertainties: Nuclear Waste Glass Formulation

The United States Department of Energy is responsible for managing the legacy nuclear waste stored in underground tanks at the Hanford Site. The waste will be separately vitrified as low-activity waste and high-level waste fractions. Waste glass formulation algorithms have been traditionally developed using partial quadratic mixture property-composition models. Recently, machine learning (ML) techniques have been used to predict glass properties and discover new glass materials for nuclear waste vitrification, and these advancements can be utilized to improve waste glass composition design. In this proof-of-principle study, ML algorithms such as Gaussian process regression (GPR) were used to interpolate glass properties (e.g., viscosity, electrical conductivity, chemical durability). After selecting appropriate sets of GPR hyper-parameters for each property, an optimization program was developed to formulate glass compositions to maximize waste loading while simultaneously satisfying property within constraints. The results of the ML-based waste loadings and glass compositions were compared to those obtained using the traditional methods. Comparing to the previous glass design framework, the ML-based optimization methods offer improved glass designs and a streamlined approach to generation of optimally designed data and near real-time updates.

glass formulation, machine learning, constraints, ↗

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Impact of Crystalline Phases on Low-Activity Waste Glass Durability: Insights from PCT and VHT

During vitrification of nuclear wastes, slow cooling along the container centerline promotes crystalline phase formation, which can alter residual glass composition and reduce chemical durability. This study investigates the effects of crystalline phases on the chemical durability of low-activity waste (LAW) borosilicate glasses using the product consistency test (PCT) and vapor hydration test (VHT) on container centerline cooled (CCC) samples. A preliminary model (R2 = 0.88) was developed to predict CCC PCT responses based on glass composition, PCT data from quenched glasses, and measured crystal fractions. Using the latest LAW glass dataset, the feasibility of predictive modeling is evaluated, limitations in current data and methods are identified, and challenges for improving model accuracy are discussed to guide future data collection and model development.

borosilicate glass↗