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Four conceptual issues to consider in integrating social and environmental factors in risk and impact assessments

In the last twenty years, both the increase in academic production and the expansion of professional involvement in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Social Impact Assessment (SIA) have evidenced growing scientific and business interest in risk and impact analysis. However, this growth has not brought with it parallel progress in addressing the main shortcomings of EIA/SIA, i.e. insufficient integration of environmental and social factors into development project analyses and, in cases where the social aspects are considered, technical-methodological failings in their analysis and assessment. It is clear that these weaknesses carry with them substantial threats to the sustainability (social, environmental and economic) of projects which impact on the environment, and consequently to the local contexts where they are carried out and to the delicate balance of the global ecosystem. This paper argues that, in a sociological context of complexity and dynamism, four conceptual elements should underpin approaches to socio-environmental risk and impact assessment in development projects: a theoretical base in actor–network theory; an ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized (though not always fulfilled in practice); a (new) epistemological-scientific base; and a methodological foundation in social participation. - Highlights: • A theoretical foundation in actor–network theory • An ethical grounding in values which are internationally recognized, but rarely carried through into practice • A (new) epistemological-scientific base • A methodological foundation in social participation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The assessment of aesthetic and perceptual aspects within environmental impact assessment of renewable energy projects in Italy

The main aim of this paper is to explore how perceptual and aesthetic impact analyses are considered in Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), with specific reference to Italian renewable energy projects. To investigate this topic, the paper starts by establishing which factors are linked with perceptual and aesthetic impacts and why it is important to analyze these aspects, which are also related to legislative provisions and procedures in Europe and in Italy. In particular the paper refers to renewable energy projects because environmental policies are encouraging more and more investment in this kind of primary resource. The growing interest in this type of energy is leading to the realization of projects which change the governance of territories, with inevitable effects on the landscape from the aesthetic and perceptual points of view. Legislative references to EIA, including the latest directive regarding this topic show the importance of integrating the assessment of environmental and perceptual impacts, thus there is a need to improve EIA methodological approaches to this purpose. This paper proposes a profile of aesthetic and perceptual impact analysis in EIA for renewable energy projects in Italy, and concludes with recommendations as to how this kind of analysis could be improved. - Highlights: • We analyze 29 EIA Reports of Italian renewable energy projects. • We examine esthetic and perceptual aspects present in Italian EIA reports. • We identified inconsistency in use of methods for esthetic and perceptual aspects. • Local populations are rarely included as stakeholders in EIAs. • A shared understanding of perceptual and esthetic issues in EIA proceedings is required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental impact assessment system in Thailand and its comparison with those in China and Japan

This paper aims to find ways to streamline the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) system in Thailand to increase its effectiveness by comparative analysis with China and Japan. This study is mainly focused on review, update and comparison of EIA systems between these three countries. It is intended to clarify fundamental information of the EIA systems and characteristics of the key elements of EIA processes (screening, consideration of alternatives, prediction or evaluation of impact, and public participation). Moreover, the number of the EIA projects that have been implemented in all the provinces in Thailand are presented. The results identified the similarities and differences of the EIA processes among the three aforementioned countries. The type of EIA report used in Thailand, unlike those in China and Japan, is an Environmental and Health Impact Assessment (EHIA), which is concerned with the health and environmental impacts that could occur from the project. In addition, EIA reports in Thailand are made available to the public online and the shortcomings of the process have details of barriers resulting from the projects to help future projects with reconsideration and improvements. In this study, it is pointed out that Thai's EIA system still lacks local EIA authority which needs to be empowered by implementing a set of laws or ordinance. - Highlights: • Reviewed current EIA procedures in Thailand, Japan and China • The EIA database is getting improved so as to generate profile of EIAs in the past. • Thailand needs to empower the local EIA authority within the EIA system. • The potential impacts should be more concerned than their scale in Japanese EIA. • Time limits and transparency should be reconsidered in China's EIA system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methods for land use impact assessment: A review

Many types of methods to assess land use impact have been developed. Nevertheless a systematic synthesis of all these approaches is necessary to highlight the most commonly used and most effective methods. Given the growing interest in this area of research, a review of the different methods of assessing land use impact (LUI) was performed using bibliometric analysis. One hundred eighty seven articles of agricultural and biological science, and environmental sciences were examined. According to our results, the most frequently used land use assessment methods are Life-Cycle Assessment, Material Flow Analysis/Input–Output Analysis, Environmental Impact Assessment and Ecological Footprint. Comparison of the methods allowed their specific features to be identified and to arrive at the conclusion that a combination of several methods is the best basis for a comprehensive analysis of land use impact assessment. - Highlights: • We identified the most frequently used methods in land use impact assessment. • A comparison of the methods based on several criteria was carried out. • Agricultural land use is by far the most common area of study within the methods. • Incentive driven methods, like LCA, arouse the most interest in this field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coping with uncertainty in environmental impact assessments: Open techniques

Uncertainty is virtually unavoidable in environmental impact assessments (EIAs). From the literature related to treating and managing uncertainty, we have identified specific techniques for coping with uncertainty in EIAs. Here, we have focused on basic steps in the decision-making process that take place within an EIA setting. More specifically, we have identified uncertainties involved in each decision-making step and discussed the extent to which these can be treated and managed in the context of an activity or project that may have environmental impacts. To further demonstrate the relevance of the techniques identified, we have examined the extent to which the EIA guidelines currently used in Colombia consider and provide guidance on managing the uncertainty involved in these assessments. Some points that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in impact assessments in Colombia have been identified. These include the management of stakeholder values, the systematic generation of project options, and their associated impacts as well as the associated management actions, and the evaluation of uncertainties and assumptions. We believe that the relevant and specific techniques reported here can be a reference for future evaluations of other EIA guidelines in different countries. - Highlights: • uncertainty is unavoidable in environmental impact assessments, EIAs; • we have identified some open techniques to EIAs for treating and managing uncertainty in these assessments; • points for improvement that should be considered in order to provide greater robustness in EIAs in Colombia have been identified; • the paper provides substantiated a reference for possible examinations of EIAs guidelines in other countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling Impact-Induced Reactivity Changes Using DAG-MCNP5

There is a long literature studying the criticality of space reactors immersed in water/sand after a launch accident; however, most of these studies evaluate nominal or uniformly compacted system configurations. There is less research on the reactivity consequences of impact, which can cause large structural deformation of reactor components that can result in changes in the reactivity of the system. Predicting these changes is an important component of launch safety analysis. This paper describes new features added to the DAG-MCNP5 neutronics code that allow the criticality analysis of deformed geometries. A CAD-based solid model of the reactor geometry is used to generate an initial mesh for a structural mechanics impact calculation using the PRONTO3D/PRESTO continuum mechanics codes. Boundary conditions and material specifications for the reactivity analysis are attached to the solid model that is then associated with the initial mesh representation. This geometry is then updated with the deformed finite element mesh to perturb node coordinates. DAG-MCNP5 was extended to accommodate two consequences of the large structural deformations: dead elements representing fracture, and small overlaps between adjacent volumes. The dead elements are removed during geometry initialization and adjustments are made to conserve mass. More challenging, small overlaps where adjacent mesh elements contact cause the geometric queries to become unreliable. A new point membership test was developed that is tolerant of self-intersecting volumes, and the particle tracking algorithm was adjusted to enable transport through small overlaps. These new features enable DAG-MCNP5 to perform particle transport and criticality eigenvalue calculations on both deformed mesh geometry and CAD geometry with small geometric defects. Detailed impact simulations were performed on an 85-pin space reactor model. In the most realistic model that included NaK coolant and water in the impact simulation, the eigenvalue was determined to increase 2.7% due to impact.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Nanoscale interfacial melting enables bonding during high velocity microparticle impacts

Melting during high-velocity particle impact has been understood to be typically detrimental to bonding by lowering the strength at the interface and promoting rebound before solidification can occur. Here we establish a possible remedy to this challenge: by dramatically restricting the volume of molten material, its resolidification is accelerated, effectively forming a nanoscale, braze-type joint during impact. In-situ single particle impact imaging is combined with post-mortem structural and chemical analyses to reveal a regime where adhesion is governed not by extensive plastic deformation, but by the kinetics of melt layer resolidification. Furthermore, these findings redefine the role of melting in impact-based processes, establishing transient melting and rapid solidification as a viable strategy for engineering successful adhesion events.

Additive manufacturing↗

X-ray Phase Contrast Imaging of the Impact of a Single HMX Particle in a Polymeric Matrix

A thorough understanding of the mechanisms by which high explosives (HEs) are shock initiated, especially at the particle scale, is still in demand. One approach to explain shock initiation phenomenon is hot spot theory, which suggests that distributed energy in energetic material is localized due to shock or impact to generate the high temperatures for ignition. Here, we focus on the impact response of a HE polycrystalline particle, specifically HMX, in a polymer matrix. This represents a simplified analog of a traditional polymer-bonded explosive (PBX) formulation. A light gas gun, together with high-speed x-ray phase contrast imaging (PCI), was used to study the impact response of a single particle of production-grade HMX in a Sylgard-184® matrix. The high-speed x-ray PCI allows for real-time visualization of HE particle behavior. The experiments revealed that, at impact velocities of ~ 200 m s -1 , the energetic particle was cracked and crushed. When the impact velocity was increased to 445 m s -1 , a significant volume expansion of the particle was observed. This volume expansion is considered to be the result of chemical reaction within the HE particle.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Overview of the Special Issue: A Multi-Model Framework to Achieve Consistent Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts in the United States

The Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) modeling exercise is a unique contribution to the scientific literature on climate change impacts, economic damages, and risk analysis that brings together multiple, national-scale models of impacts and damages in an integrated and consistent fashion to estimate climate change impacts, damages, and the benefits of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation actions in the United States. The CIRA project uses three consistent socioeconomic, emissions, and climate scenarios across all models to estimate the benefits of GHG mitigation policies: a Business As Usual (BAU) and two policy scenarios with radiative forcing (RF) stabilization targets of 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 in 2100. CIRA was also designed to specifically examine the sensitivity of results to uncertainties around climate sensitivity and differences in model structure. The goals of CIRA project are to 1) build a multi-model framework to produce estimates of multiple risks and impacts in the U.S., 2) determine to what degree risks and damages across sectors may be lowered from a BAU to policy scenarios, 3) evaluate key sources of uncertainty along the causal chain, and 4) provide information for multiple audiences and clearly communicate the risks and damages of climate change and the potential benefits of mitigation. This paper describes the motivations, goals, and design of the CIRA modeling exercise and introduces the subsequent papers in this special issue.

Climate Change Impacts↗

Room-Temperature Charpy Impact Property of 3D-Printed 15-5 Stainless Steel

In this study, the room-temperature Charpy impact property of 3D-printed 15-5 stainless steel was investigated by a combined experimental and finite element modeling approach. The experimentally measured impact energy is 10.85 ± 1.20 J/cm{sup 2}, which is comparable to the conventionally wrought and non-heat treated 15-5 stainless steel. In parallel to the impact test experiment, a finite element model using the Johnson–Cook material model with damage parameters was developed to simulate the impact test. The simulated impact energy is 10.46 J/cm{sup 2}, which is in good agreement with the experimental data. The fracture surface from the experimentally tested specimen suggests that the 3D-printed specimens undergo predominately brittle fracture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Translating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California

Climate change and increased electrification of space and water heating in buildings can significantly affect future electricity demand and hourly demand profiles, which has implications for electric grid greenhouse gas emissions and capacity requirements. We use EnergyPlus to quantify building energy demand under historical and under several climate change projections of 32 kinds of building prototypes in 16 different climate zones of California and imposed these impacts on a year 2050 electric grid configuration by simulation in the Holistic Grid Resource Integration and Deployment (HIGRID) model. We find that climate change only prompted modest increases in grid resource capacity and negligible difference in greenhouse gas emissions since the additional electric load generally occurred during times with available renewable generation. Heating electrification, however, prompted a 30-40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions but required significant grid resource capacity increases, due to the higher magnitude of load increases and lack of readily available renewable generation during the times when electrified heating loads occurred. Overall, this study translates climate change and electrification impacts to system-wide endpoint impacts on future electric grid configurations and highlights the complexities associated with translating building-level impacts to electric system-wide impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamic mechanical behavior of lithium-ion pouch cells subjected to high-velocity impact

With broad-scale deployment of lithium-ion batteries, mechanical-abuse induced failure events such as short circuits and thermal runaway have made safety a focus of attention in battery design. Most previous studies have focused on quasi-static and low-velocity impact analyses, which could not represent the mechanical behavior of lithium-ion batteries in realistic situations. Here we report a combined experimental and computational study on the dynamic response of lithium-ion pouch cells subjected to high-velocity (200 m/s~1000 m/s) impact. Dynamic finite element simulations were performed to study the effects of internal interfacial behavior and external loading and boundary conditions on the dynamic mechanical behavior of pouch cells. Specifically, mechanical resistance across interfaces between different cell components have a pronounced impact on energy distribution and absorption, thereby determining the evolution of subsequent failure events. These results have practical implications for designing cells with liquid versus gel-type electrolytes, for example. Furthermore, finite element simulations on different external loading and boundary conditions indicate that a direct interaction between the impactor and the cell boundaries lead to a significant change in residual velocity, while the response of the pouch cell is independent of the prescribed far-field boundary conditions. In other words, there is not a significant difference in the response of pouch-format cells that have stacked electrodes versus wound electrodes at such high strain rates. These results are significantly different from quasi-static simulations wherein the evolution of failure events follows a very different pathway. In addition, the impact velocity profiles under different initial impact velocities offer the ballistic limit for the pouch cell and inform subsequent propagation analyses at the battery module level. Collectively, the findings presented here not only offer new perspectives on the role of the interfacial resistances and external boundary conditions on the mechanical safety of lithium-ion pouch cells, but also have implications for further investigations on cell design, modeling approaches, and test method development to study safety of lithium-ion batteries under extreme loading conditions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Reducing the environmental impact of road and rail vehicles

Methods have been developed to measure in situ the dynamic impact of both road and rail vehicles on the infrastructure and the environment. The resulting data sets have been analysed to quantify the environmental impacts in a transparent manner across both modes. A primary concern is that a small number of vehicles are being operated outside safe or regulatory limits which can have a disproportionate large impact. The analysis enables the various impacts to be ranked across both modes so enabling one to discern the benefits of intermodal transport. The impact of various policy options is considered and how to identify vehicles which can be classified as environmentally friendly. This would require European agreement as many heavy goods vehicle operate across country borders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integration of health into urban spatial planning through impact assessment: Identifying governance and policy barriers and facilitators

This article presents the results of a review of literature examining the barriers and facilitators in integrating health in spatial planning at the local, mainly urban level, through appraisals. Our literature review covered the UK and non UK experiences of appraisals used to consider health issues in the planning process. We were able to identify four main categories of obstacles and facilitators including first the different knowledge and conceptual understanding of health by different actors/stakeholders, second the types of governance arrangements, in particular partnerships, in place and the political context, third the way institutions work, the responsibilities they have and their capacity and resources and fourth the timeliness, comprehensiveness and inclusiveness of the appraisal process. The findings allowed us to draw some lessons on the governance and policy framework regarding the integration of health impact into spatial planning, in particular considering the pros and cons of integrating health impact assessment (HIA) into other forms of impact assessment of spatial planning decisions such as environmental impact assessment (EIA) and strategic environment assessment (SEA). In addition, the research uncovered a gap in the literature that tends to focus on the mainly voluntary HIA to assess health outcomes of planning decisions and neglect the analysis of regulatory mechanisms such as EIA and SEA. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Governance and policy barriers and facilitators to the integration of health into urban planning. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Review of literature on impact assessment methods used across the world. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Knowledge, partnerships, management/resources and processes can impede integration. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer HIA evaluations prevail uncovering research opportunities for evaluating other techniques.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978-2008

This study examines the impacts of population size, population structure, and consumption level on carbon emissions in China from 1978 to 2008. To this end, we expanded the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology model and used the ridge regression method, which overcomes the negative influences of multicollinearity among independent variables under acceptable bias. Results reveal that changes in consumption level and population structure were the major impact factors, not changes in population size. Consumption level and carbon emissions were highly correlated. In terms of population structure, urbanization, population age, and household size had distinct effects on carbon emissions. Urbanization increased carbon emissions, while the effect of age acted primarily through the expansion of the labor force and consequent overall economic growth. Shrinking household size increased residential consumption, resulting in higher carbon emissions. Households, rather than individuals, are a more reasonable explanation for the demographic impact on carbon emissions. Potential social policies for low carbon development are also discussed. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We examine the impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We expand the STIRPAT model by containing population structure factors in the model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure includes age structure, urbanization level, and household size. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The ridge regression method is used to estimate the model with multicollinearity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The population structure plays a more important role compared with the population size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Health impact assessment in the United States: Has practice followed standards?

As an emerging practice, Health Impact Assessment is heterogeneous in purpose, form, and scope and applied in a wide range of decision contexts. This heterogeneity challenges efforts to evaluate the quality and impact of practice. We examined whether information in completed HIA reports reflected objectively-evaluable criteria proposed by the North American HIA Practice Standards Working Group in 2009. From publically-available reports of HIAs conducted in the U.S. and published from 2009 to 2011, we excluded those that were components of, or comment letters on, Environmental Impact Assessments (5) or were demonstration projects or student exercises (8). For the remaining 23 reports, we used practice standards as a template to abstract data on the steps of HIA, including details on the rationale, authorship, funding, decision and decision-makers, participation, pathways and methods, quality of evidence, and recommendations. Most reports described screening, scoping, and assessment processes, but there was substantial variation in the extent of these processes and the degree of stakeholder participation. Community stakeholders participated in screening or scoping in just two-thirds of the HIAs (16). On average, these HIAs analyzed 5.5 determinants related to 10.6 health impacts. Most HIA reports did not include evaluation or monitoring plans. This study identifies issues for field development and improvement. The standards might be adapted to better account for variability in resources, produce fit-for-purpose HIAs, and facilitate innovation guided by the principles. - Highlights: • Our study examined reported HIAs in the U.S. against published practice standards. • Most HIAs used some screening, scoping and assessment elements from the standards. • The extent of these processes and stakeholder participation varied widely. • The average HIA considered multiple health determinants and impacts. • Evaluation or monitoring plans were generally not included in reports.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New Internet search volume-based weighting method for integrating various environmental impacts

Weighting is one of the steps in life cycle impact assessment that integrates various characterized environmental impacts as a single index. Weighting factors should be based on the society's preferences. However, most previous studies consider only the opinion of some people. Thus, this research proposes a new weighting method that determines the weighting factors of environmental impact categories by considering public opinion on environmental impacts using the Internet search volumes for relevant terms. To validate the new weighting method, the weighting factors for six environmental impacts calculated by the new weighting method were compared with the existing weighting factors. The resulting Pearson's correlation coefficient between the new and existing weighting factors was from 0.8743 to 0.9889. It turned out that the new weighting method presents reasonable weighting factors. It also requires less time and lower cost compared to existing methods and likewise meets the main requirements of weighting methods such as simplicity, transparency, and reproducibility. The new weighting method is expected to be a good alternative for determining the weighting factor. - Highlight: • A new weighting method using Internet search volume is proposed in this research. • The new weighting method reflects the public opinion using Internet search volume. • The correlation coefficient between new and existing weighting factors is over 0.87. • The new weighting method can present the reasonable weighting factors. • The proposed method can be a good alternative for determining the weighting factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of environmental impact monitoring protocol for offshore carbon capture and storage (CCS): A biological perspective

Offshore geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), known as offshore carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), has been under active investigation as a safe, effective mitigation option for reducing CO{sub 2} levels from anthropogenic fossil fuel burning and climate change. Along with increasing trends in implementation plans and related logistics on offshore CCS, thorough risk assessment (i.e. environmental impact monitoring) needs to be conducted to evaluate potential risks, such as CO{sub 2} gas leakage at injection sites. Gas leaks from offshore CCS may affect the physiology of marine organisms and disrupt certain ecosystem functions, thereby posing an environmental risk. Here, we synthesize current knowledge on environmental impact monitoring of offshore CCS with an emphasis on biological aspects and provide suggestions for better practice. Based on our critical review of preexisting literatures, this paper: 1) discusses key variables sensitive to or indicative of gas leakage by summarizing physico-chemical and ecological variables measured from previous monitoring cruises on offshore CCS; 2) lists ecosystem and organism responses to a similar environmental condition to CO{sub 2} leakage and associated impacts, such as ocean acidification and hypercapnia, to predict how they serve as responsive indicators of short- and long-term gas exposure, and 3) discusses the designs of the artificial gas release experiments in fields and the best model simulation to produce realistic leakage scenarios in marine ecosystems. Based on our analysis, we suggest that proper incorporation of biological aspects will provide successful and robust long-term monitoring strategies with earlier detection of gas leakage, thus reducing the risks associated with offshore CCS. - Highlights: • This paper synthesizes the current knowledge on environmental impact monitoring of offshore Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS). • Impacts of CO{sub 2} leakage (ocean acidification, hypercapnia) on marine organisms and ecosystems are discussed. • Insights and recommendations on EIA monitoring for CCS operations are proposed specifically in marine ecosystem perspective.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗