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At least 1,531 records · Page 85
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NASA NTRS2018

Observational Constraint on Cloud Susceptibility Weakened by Aerosol Retrieval Limitations

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain a major uncertainty in climate research. Studies have indicated that model estimates of cloud susceptibility to aerosols frequently exceed satellite estimates, motivating model reformulations to increase agreement. Here we show that conventional ways of using satellite information to estimate susceptibility can serve as only a weak constraint on models because the estimation is sensitive to errors in the retrieval procedures. Using instrument simulators to investigate differences between model and satellite estimates of susceptibilities, we find that low aerosol loading conditions are not well characterized by satellites, but model clouds are sensitive to aerosol perturbations in these conditions. We quantify the observational requirements needed to constrain models, and find that the nighttime lidar measurements of aerosols provide a better characterization of ten- uous aerosols. We conclude that observational uncertainties and limitations need to be accounted for when assessing the role of aerosols in the climate system.

Ma, Po-Lun↗
NASA NTRS1978

A model of the 0.4-GHz scatterometer

The 0.4 GHz aircraft scatterometer system used for the agricultural soil moisture estimation program is analyzed for the antenna pattern, the signal flow in the receiver data channels, and the errors in the signal outputs. The operational principal, system sensitivity, data handling, and resolution cell length requirements are also described. The backscattering characteristics of the agriculture scenes are contained in the form of the functional dependence of the backscattering coefficient on the incidence angle. The substantial gains of the cross-polarization term of the horizontal and vertical antennas have profound effects on the cross-polarized backscattered signals. If these signals are not corrected properly, large errors could result in the estimate of the cross-polarized backscattering coefficient. It is also necessary to correct the variations of the aircraft parameters during data processing to minimize the error in the 0 degree estimation. Recommendations are made to improve the overall performance of the scatterometer system.

Wu, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Sideslip-induced static pressure errors in flight-test measurements

During lateral flight-test maneuvers of a V/STOL research aircraft, large errors in static pressure were observed. An investigation of the data showed a strong correlation of the pressure record with variations in sideslip angle. The sensors for both measurements were located on a standard air-data nose boom. This paper descries an algorithm based on potential flow over a cylinder that was developed to correct the pressure record for sideslip-induced errors. In order to properly apply the correction algorithm, it was necessary to estimate and correct the lag error in the pressure system. The method developed for estimating pressure lag is based on the coupling of sideslip activity into the static ports and can be used as a standard flight-test procedure. The paper discusses the estimation procedure and presents the corrected static-pressure record for a typical lateral maneuver. It is shown that application of the correction algorithm effectifvely attenuates sideslip-induced errors.

Parks, Edwin K.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The simultaneous inference of stratospheric trace gases with overlapping spectral signatures using limb sounding radiometry

An inversion algorithm has been developed to simultaneously infer the concentrations of two gases with overlapping spectral signatures using limb emission measurements. The algorithm is efficient and provides a solution in two or three iterations. It has been applied in a simulation study to the inference of stratospheric NO2-H2O and HNO3-CF2Cl2. Existing satellite instrumentation was the basis for errors used in the calculations. It is estimated that concentrations of all four gases can be determined with errors of about 20 percent. This assumes an estimated 1980 CF2Cl2 level. Also, other error sources due to contaminant gas, aerosol emission, and the temperature profile must be included to obtain a better estimate of experimental accuracies.

Russell, J. M., III↗
NASA NTRS1972

Evaluation of errors in prior mean and variance in the estimation of integrated circuit failure rates using Bayesian methods

The critical point of any Bayesian analysis concerns the choice and quantification of the prior information. The effects of prior data on a Bayesian analysis are studied. Comparisons of the maximum likelihood estimator, the Bayesian estimator, and the known failure rate are presented. The results of the many simulated trails are then analyzed to show the region of criticality for prior information being supplied to the Bayesian estimator. In particular, effects of prior mean and variance are determined as a function of the amount of test data available.

Fletcher, B. C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Estimation of attitude sensor timetag biases

This paper presents an extended Kalman filter for estimating attitude sensor timing errors. Spacecraft attitude is determined by finding the mean rotation from a set of reference vectors in inertial space to the corresponding observed vectors in the body frame. Any timing errors in the observations can lead to attitude errors if either the spacecraft is rotating or the reference vectors themselves vary with time. The state vector here consists of the attitude quaternion, timetag biases, and, optionally, gyro drift rate biases. The filter models the timetags as random walk processes: their expectation values propagate as constants and white noise contributes to their covariance. Thus, this filter is applicable to cases where the true timing errors are constant or slowly varying. The observability of the state vector is studied first through an examination of the algebraic observability condition and then through several examples with simulated star tracker timing errors. The examples use both simulated and actual flight data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The flight data come from times when EUVE had a constant rotation rate, while the simulated data feature large angle attitude maneuvers. The tests include cases with timetag errors on one or two sensors, both constant and time-varying, and with and without gyro bias errors. Due to EUVE's sensor geometry, the observability of the state vector is severely limited when the spacecraft rotation rate is constant. In the absence of attitude maneuvers, the state elements are highly correlated, and the state estimate is unreliable. The estimates are particularly sensitive to filter mistuning in this case. The EUVE geometry, though, is a degenerate case having coplanar sensors and rotation vector. Observability is much improved and the filter performs well when the rate is either varying or noncoplanar with the sensors, as during a slew. Even with bad geometry and constant rates, if gyro biases are independently known, the timetag error for a single sensor can be accurately estimated as long as its boresight is not too close to the spacecraft rotation axis.

Sedlak, J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Envisioning the Future of International Earth Observations Collaboration: Area and Map Accuracy Estimation by Sampling

- Maps have errors, sometimes a lot of errors ⇒ obtaining information directly from map problematic; any use of the map will benefit from information about errors/uncertainty - IPCC: unbiasedness and uncertainty - By randomly drawing a sample from the study area, observing reference conditions at drawn locations, and constructing estimators – easily estimate areas and map accuracy ± uncertainty - Sampling design and analysis, relatively easy – collecting reference observations is not. Cloud-based solutions, e.g. AREA2, Collect Earth Online, facilitate the collection of reference observations - More research and guidance needed!

Pontus Olofsson↗
NASA NTRS2024

Pre-Launch Calibration and Validation of the Airborne Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (AirHARP) Instrument

The Airborne Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (AirHARP) is a new imaging polarimeter instrument capable of sampling a single Earth target from up to 120 viewing angles, in four spectral channels, and in three linear polarization states across a 114° field of view (FOV). AirHARP is telecentric in the image space and simultaneously images three linear polarization states with no moving parts. These two aspects of the design allow for a simple and efficient quantitative calibration. Using coefficients derived at the center of the lens and the detector flatfields, we can calibrate the entire AirHARP sensor in a variety of laboratory, field, and space environments. We show that this telecentric calibration technique yields a 1σ absolute uncertainty of 0.25 % in degree of linear polarization (DOLP) in the laboratory for all channels and for pixels around the optical axis. To validate across the FOV, we compare our multi-angle reflectance and polarization data with the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) over targets sampled during the NASA Aerosol Characterization from Polarimeter and Lidar (ACEPOL) campaign. We use the error-normalized difference technique to estimate how well the instruments compare relative to their error models. We find that AirHARP and the RSP reasonably agree for reflectance and DOLP within 2 standard deviations of their mutual uncertainty at 550, 670, and 870 nm and over a limited set of ocean and desert scenes. This calibration technique makes the Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter (HARP) design attractive for new spaceborne climate missions: HARP CubeSat (2020–2022), HARP2 (2024–) on the NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE), and beyond.

Airborne Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter↗
NASA NTRS1987

On the representation and estimation of spatial uncertainty

This paper describes a general method for estimating the nominal relationship and expected error (covariance) between coordinate frames representing the relative locations of objects. The frames may be known only indirectly through a series of spatial relationships, each with its associated error, arising from diverse causes, including positioning errors, measurement errors, or tolerances in part dimensions. This estimation method can be used to answer such questions as whether a camera attached to a robot is likely to have a particular reference object in its field of view. The calculated estimates agree well with those from an independent Monte Carlo simulation. The method makes it possible to decide in advance whether an uncertain relationship is known accurately enough for some task and, if not, how much of an improvement in locational knowledge a proposed sensor will provide. The method presented can be generalized to six degrees of freedom and provides a practical means of estimating the relationships (position and orientation) among objects, as well as estimating the uncertainty associated with the relationships.

Smith, Randall C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The GPS Transmit Antenna Phase Center and Its Impact on Precise Geophysical Applications

The ionospheric-free (Lc) phase center of the GPS transmit antenna is modeled as a fixed constant in most geodetic software packages. We estimated a phase center offset for all GPS satellites and found large deviations from the nominal values. In particular, meter level deviation was observed for PRN 13 and somewhat smaller anomalies were observed for PRNs 6, 15, 19 and 31. We will present the estimation results for all GPS satellites and describe the estimation process as well as an error budget. We will present evidence that estimating the phase center offset improves the GPS orbits and discuss the impact of phase center mismodeling on various high-precision applications.

Bar-Sever, Y. E.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Predictive Model for Lake Chad Total Surface Water Area Using Remotely Sensed and Modeled Hydrological and Meteorological Parameters and Multivariate Regression Analysis

Lake Chad is an endorheic lake in the Sahel region of Africa at the southern edge of the Sahara Desert. The lake, which is well known for its dramatic decrease in surface area during the 1970s and 1980s, experiences an annual flood resulting in a maximum total surface water area generally during February or March, though sometimes earlier or later. People along the shores of Lake Chad make their living fishing, farming, and raising livestock and have a vested interest in knowing when and how extensive the annual flooding will be, particularly those practicing recession farming in which the fertile ground of previously flooded area is used for planting crops. In this study, the authors investigate the relationship between lake and basin parameters, including rainfall, basin evapotranspiration, lake evapotranspiration, lake elevation, total surface water area, and the previous year’s total surface water area, and develop equations for each dry season month (except November) linking total surface water area to the other parameters. The resulting equations allow the user to estimate the December average monthly total surface water area of the lake in late November, and to make the estimates for January to May in early December. Based on the results of a Leave One Out Cross Validation analysis, the equations for lake area are estimated to have an average absolute error ranging from 5.3 percent (for February estimates) to 7.6 percent (for May estimates).

Lake Chad↗
NASA NTRS1995

Uncertainty in vertically integrated liquid water content due to radar reflectivity observation error

Radar reflectivity is used to estimate meteorological quantities such as rainfall rate, liquid water content, and the related quantity, vertically integrated liquid (VIL) water content. The estimation of any of these quantities depends on several assumptions related to the characteristics of the physical processes controlling the occurrence and character of water in the atmosphere. Additionally, there are many sources of error associated with radar observations, such as those due to brighthand, hail, and drop size distribution approximations. This work addresses one error of interest, the radar reflectivity observation error; other error sources are assumed to be corrected or negligible. The result is a relationship between the uncertainty in VIL water content and radar reflectivity measurement error. An example application illustrates the estimation of VIL uncertainty from typical radar reflectivity observations and indicates that the coefficient of variation in VIL is much larger than the coefficient of variation in radar reflectivity.

French, Mark N.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Helmet mounted display flight symbology research

Screen/head stabilized MIL-STD 1295 helmet mounted display (HMD) flight symbology as integrated on the Apache helicopter was compared to world referenced/stabilized flight symbology. Simulation test results indicate that pilots perform significantly better using world-stabilized conformal attitude symbology. They were accurate to an average of 1/2 degree at estimating terrain relief and aerial target locations. World stabilized conformal symbology was preferred while performing contour flight tasks. They reported that the use of climb-dive-marker during contour flight greatly reduced pilot work load under conditions tested. Cyclic input errors occurred when using both 1295 hover symbology and test symbology indicating that a better approach for depicting hover symbology is warranted. The magnitude of cyclic input and spatial estimation errors increased as the off-axis viewing angle became larger.

Haworth, Loran A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Measurement-based reliability/performability models

Measurement-based models based on real error-data collected on a multiprocessor system are described. Model development from the raw error-data to the estimation of cumulative reward is also described. A workload/reliability model is developed based on low-level error and resource usage data collected on an IBM 3081 system during its normal operation in order to evaluate the resource usage/error/recovery process in a large mainframe system. Thus, both normal and erroneous behavior of the system are modeled. The results provide an understanding of the different types of errors and recovery processes. The measured data show that the holding times in key operational and error states are not simple exponentials and that a semi-Markov process is necessary to model the system behavior. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the significance of using a semi-Markov process, as opposed to a Markov process, to model the measured system.

Hsueh, Mei-Chen↗
NASA NTRS1999

Massively Parallel Assimilation of TOGA/TAO and Topex/Poseidon Measurements into a Quasi Isopycnal Ocean General Circulation Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

A massively parallel ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)is used to assimilate temperature data from the TOGA/TAO array and altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON into a Pacific basin version of the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. The EnKF is an approximate Kalman filter in which the error-covariance propagation step is modeled by the integration of multiple instances of a numerical model. An estimate of the true error covariances is then inferred from the distribution of the ensemble of model state vectors. This inplementation of the filter takes advantage of the inherent parallelism in the EnKF algorithm by running all the model instances concurrently. The Kalman filter update step also occurs in parallel by having each processor process the observations that occur in the region of physical space for which it is responsible. The massively parallel data assimilation system is validated by withholding some of the data and then quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The distributions of the forecast and analysis error covariances predicted by the ENKF are also examined.

Keppenne, Christian L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Binning of satellite magnetic anomalies

Crustal magnetic anomaly signals over satellite orbits were simulated to investigate numerical averaging as an anomaly estimator. Averaging as an anomaly estimator involves significant problems concerning spatial and amplitude smoothing of the satellite magnetic observations. The results of simulations suggest that the error of numerical averaging constitutes a small and relatively minor component of the total error-budget of higher orbital anomaly estimates, whereas for lower orbital estimates numerical averaging error increases substantially. As an alternative to numerical averaging, least-squares collocation was investigated and observed to produce substantially more accurate anomaly estimates, particularly as the orbital elevation of prediction was decreased towards the crustal sources. In contrast to averaging, collocation is a significantly more resource-intensive procedure to apply because of the practical, but surmountable problems related to establishing and inverting the covariance matrix for accurate anomaly prediction. However, collocation may be much more effectively used to exploit the anomaly details contained in the lower orbital satellite magnetic data for geologic analysis.

Goyal, H. K.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Cabauw Experimental Results from the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes

In the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes phase 2a experiment, meteorological data for the year 1987 from Cabauw, the Netherlands, were used as inputs to 23 land-surface flux schemes designed for use in climate and weather models. Schemes were evaluated by comparing their outputs with long-term measurements of surface sensible heat fluxes into the atmosphere and the ground, and of upward longwave radiation and total net radiative fluxes, and also comparing them with latent heat fluxes derived from a surface energy balance. Tuning of schemes by use of the observed flux data was not permitted. On an annual basis, the predicted surface radiative temperature exhibits a range of 2 K across schemes, consistent with the range of about 10 W/m in predicted surface net radiation. Most modeled values of monthly net radiation differ from the observations by less than the estimated maximum monthly observational error (+/- 10 W/sq m). However, modeled radiative surface temperature appears to have a systematic positive bias in most schemes; this might be explained by an error in assumed emissivity and by models' neglect of canopy thermal heterogeneity. Annual means of sensible and latent heat fluxes, into which net radiation is partitioned, have ranges across schemes of 30 W/sq m and 25 W/sq m, respectively. Annual totals of evapotranspiration and runoff, into which the precipitation is partitioned, both have ranges of 315 mm. These ranges in annual heat and water fluxes were approximately halved upon exclusion of the three schemes that have no stomatal resistance under non-water-stressed conditions. Many schemes tend to underestimate latent heat flux and overestimate sensible heat flux in summer, with a reverse tendency in winter. For six schemes, root-mean-square deviations of predictions from monthly observations are less than the estimated upper bounds on observation errors (5 W/m for sensible beat flux and 10 W/m for latent heat flux). Actual runoff at the site is believed to be dominated by vertical drainage to ground water, but several schemes produced significant amounts of runoff as overland flow or interflow. There is a range across schemes of 184 mm (40% of total pore volume) in the simulated annual mean root-zone soil moisture. Unfortunately, no measurements of soil moisture were available for model evaluation. A theoretical analysis suggested that differences in boundary conditions used in various schemes are not sufficient to explain the large variance in soil moisture. However, many of the extreme values of soil moisture could be explained in terms of the particulars of experimental setup or excessive evapotranspiration.

Chen, Tian Hong↗
NASA NTRS1987

Order reduction in linear state estimation under performance constraints

The design and analysis of minimal-order state estimators for possibly time-varying linear systems, under constraints on the maximal allowable mean-square error, are considered. A global lower bound on the optimal error is derived, along with a lower bound on the minimal estimator order, needed for meeting the performance constraint. The ideal reduced-order estimator which satisfies the lower bound is derived, along with conditions for its realizability. When the ideal estimator is not realizable, its structure forms a suboptimal estimator, which maintains, in some sense, a local optimality property and is called the pseudoideal estimator. The mean-square error of the pseudoideal estimator defines upper bounds on the optimal error and on the estimator order needed for meeting the performance constraint. The lower and the upper bounds on the order define a reduced search set for the design problem. When the distance between the ideal and the pseudoideal estimators is sufficiently small in a certain numerical sense, the pseudoideal estimator may be considered optimal for practical purposes.

Baram, Yoram↗