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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

Advanced probabilistic method of development

Advanced structural reliability methods are utilized on the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project to provide a tool for analysis and design of space propulsion system hardware. The role of the effort at the University of Arizona is to provide reliability technology support to this project. PSAM computer programs will provide a design tool for analyzing uncertainty associated with thermal and mechanical loading, material behavior, geometry, and the analysis methods used. Specifically, reliability methods are employed to perform sensitivity analyses, to establish the distribution of a critical response variable (e.g., stress, deflection), to perform reliability assessment, and ultimately to produce a design which will minimize cost and/or weight. Uncertainties in the design factors of space propulsion hardware are described by probability models constructed using statistical analysis of data. Statistical methods are employed to produce a probability model, i.e., a statistical synthesis or summary of each design variable in a format suitable for reliability analysis and ultimately, design decisions.

Wirsching, P. H.↗

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

Crane, Robert G.↗

Rotation of EOFs by the Independent Component Analysis: Towards A Solution of the Mixing Problem in the Decomposition of Geophysical Time Series

The Independent Component Analysis is a recently developed technique for component extraction. This new method requires the statistical independence of the extracted components, a stronger constraint that uses higher-order statistics, instead of the classical decorrelation, a weaker constraint that uses only second-order statistics. This technique has been used recently for the analysis of geophysical time series with the goal of investigating the causes of variability in observed data (i.e. exploratory approach). We demonstrate with a data simulation experiment that, if initialized with a Principal Component Analysis, the Independent Component Analysis performs a rotation of the classical PCA (or EOF) solution. This rotation uses no localization criterion like other Rotation Techniques (RT), only the global generalization of decorrelation by statistical independence is used. This rotation of the PCA solution seems to be able to solve the tendency of PCA to mix several physical phenomena, even when the signal is just their linear sum.

Aires, Filipe↗

Rotation of EOFs by the Independent Component Analysis: Towards a Solution of the Mixing Problem in the Decomposition of Geophysical Time Series

The Independent Component Analysis is a recently developed technique for component extraction. This new method requires the statistical independence of the extracted components, a stronger constraint that uses higher-order statistics, instead of the classical decorrelation, a weaker constraint that uses only second-order statistics. This technique has been used recently for the analysis of geophysical time series with the goal of investigating the causes of variability in observed data (i.e. exploratory approach). We demonstrate with a data simulation experiment that, if initialized with a Principal Component Analysis, the Independent Component Analysis performs a rotation of the classical PCA (or EOF) solution. This rotation uses no localization criterion like other Rotation Techniques (RT), only the global generalization of decorrelation by statistical independence is used. This rotation of the PCA solution seems to be able to solve the tendency of PCA to mix several physical phenomena, even when the signal is just their linear sum.

Aires, Filipe↗

The International DORIS Service contribution to ITRF2020

For the realization of the 2020 International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF2020), the International DORIS Service delivered to the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) a set of 1456 weekly solution files from 1993.0 to 2021.0 including station coordinates and Earth orientation parameters (EOPs). The data come from fourteen DORIS satellites: TOPEX/Poseidon, SPOT-2, SPOT-3, SPOT-4, SPOT-5, Envisat, Jason-1, Jason-2, Cryosat-2, Saral, HY-2A, Jason-3, Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-3B. In their processing, the four analysis centers which contributed to the DORIS combined solution used the latest time variable gravity models, the new mean pole and diurnal-subdiurnal tidal EOP models recommended by IERS. In addition, all the analysis centers included in their processing precise SPOT-5 solar panel angle values and quaternions for, at least, the Jason satellites. Furthermore, a new Alcatel phase center variation model was implemented for the ITRF2020 processing. The main objective of this study is to present the combination process and to analyze the impact of the new modeling on the performance of the new combined solution. Comparisons with the IDS contribution to ITRF2014 show that i) the application of the new phase center variations for the Alcatel DORIS ground antennas in the data processing combined with the gradual replacement over time of the Alcatel by Starec antennas implies a scale drift from 1993.0 to 2002.5 and ii) thanks to a better modeling of the surface forces on the satellites, the new combined solution shows smaller annual and 118-day signals in the geocenter. A new DORIS terrestrial reference frame was computed to evaluate the intrinsic quality of the new combined solution. That evaluation shows that over almost the full time span the intrinsic IDS scale values lie in a range of ±5 mm. After mid-2008, the new DORIS reference frame has an internal position consistency in North-East-Up better than 7.5 mm.

DORIS↗

Energy management system, method of controlling one or more energy storage devices and control unit for one or more power storage units

Systems, methods and apparatuses are provided for reducing peak energy demand and to smooth intermittent energy profiles from onsite variable energy sources and loads. Some embodiments use system level and device level analysis and optimization to adaptively adjust the operation of a behind the meter energy storage (BMES) to smooth out energy generation variabilities and follow a reference load signal, including at short time resolutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Variability in NGC 3201 Giant Stars and Its Impact on Their Spectroscopic [Fe/H] Determination

We present the analysis of 34 light curves in V and I of 17 giant stars in the globular cluster NGC 3201 to check if such stars are variable and if their variability has some kind of impact on the iron abundance as obtained from spectroscopic measurements. First, we computed the generalized Lomb–Scargle and phase dispersion minimization periodograms of the sample to check if the stars were variables. In this way, seven stars of the sample were found to be nonvariable, two stars are considered as possible variables, and eight stars were found to be variable, with periods ranging from 0.0881 ± 0.0001 to 0.5418 ± 0.0027 days. According to the literature, the variables have distinct values of [Fe I/H]: the three most metal-rich stars are in the red giant branch (RGB) stage, one has [Fe I/H] = −1.37 dex, while the other two have [Fe I/H] = −1.31 dex. The two most metal-poor variables have [Fe I/H] = −1.61 dex and [Fe I/H] = −1.62 dex, and are AGB stars; the remaining variables have [Fe I/H] = −1.44, −1.48, and −1.50 dex, the first two being RGB stars while the last is an AGB star. On the other hand, stars that appear to be nonvariable have −1.56 ≤ [Fe I/H] ≤ −1.40. We conclude that variability somehow affects the spectroscopic determination of the iron content of giant stars in NGC 3201, increasing the iron spread of the cluster. If variability is not taken into account, this spread could be incorrectly interpreted as due to an intrinsic iron spread affecting the stars of the cluster.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Neural Network and Regression Methods Demonstrated in the Design Optimization of a Subsonic Aircraft

The neural network and regression methods of NASA Glenn Research Center s COMETBOARDS design optimization testbed were used to generate approximate analysis and design models for a subsonic aircraft operating at Mach 0.85 cruise speed. The analytical model is defined by nine design variables: wing aspect ratio, engine thrust, wing area, sweep angle, chord-thickness ratio, turbine temperature, pressure ratio, bypass ratio, fan pressure; and eight response parameters: weight, landing velocity, takeoff and landing field lengths, approach thrust, overall efficiency, and compressor pressure and temperature. The variables were adjusted to optimally balance the engines to the airframe. The solution strategy included a sensitivity model and the soft analysis model. Researchers generated the sensitivity model by training the approximators to predict an optimum design. The trained neural network predicted all response variables, within 5-percent error. This was reduced to 1 percent by the regression method. The soft analysis model was developed to replace aircraft analysis as the reanalyzer in design optimization. Soft models have been generated for a neural network method, a regression method, and a hybrid method obtained by combining the approximators. The performance of the models is graphed for aircraft weight versus thrust as well as for wing area and turbine temperature. The regression method followed the analytical solution with little error. The neural network exhibited 5-percent maximum error over all parameters. Performance of the hybrid method was intermediate in comparison to the individual approximators. Error in the response variable is smaller than that shown in the figure because of a distortion scale factor. The overall performance of the approximators was considered to be satisfactory because aircraft analysis with NASA Langley Research Center s FLOPS (Flight Optimization System) code is a synthesis of diverse disciplines: weight estimation, aerodynamic analysis, engine cycle analysis, propulsion data interpolation, mission performance, airfield length for landing and takeoff, noise footprint, and others.

Hopkins, Dale A.↗

Interannual Variability and Trends of Extratropical Ozone: Northern Hemisphere - Part 1

The authors apply principal component analysis (PCA) to the extratropical total column ozone from the combined merged ozone data product and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts assimilated ozone from January 1979 to August 2002. The interannual variability (IAV) of extratropical O-3 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is characterized by four main modes. Attributable to dominant dynamical effects, these four modes account for nearly 60% of the total ozone variance in the NH. The patterns of variability are distinctly different from those derived for total O-3 in the tropics. To relate the derived patterns of O-3 to atmospheric dynamics, similar decompositions are performed for the 30 100-Wa geopotential thickness. The results reveal intimate connections between the IAV of total ozone and the atmospheric circulation. The first two leading modes are nearly zonally symmetric and represent the connections to the annular modes and the quasi-biennial oscillation. The other two modes exhibit in-quadrature, wavenumber-1 structures that, when combined, describe the displacement of the polar vortices in response to planetary waves. In the NH, the extrema of these combined modes have preferred locations that suggest fixed topographical and land-sea thermal forcing of the involved planetary waves. Similar spatial patterns and trends in extratropical column ozone are simulated by the Goddard Earth Observation System chemistryclimate model (GEOS-CCM). The decreasing O-3 trend is captured in the first mode. The largest trend occurs at the North Pole, with values similar to-1 Dobson Unit (DU) yr(-1). There is almost no trend in tropical O-3. The trends derived from PCA are confirmed using a completely independent method, empirical mode decomposition, for zonally averaged O-3 data. The O-3 trend is also captured by mode 1 in the GEOS-CCM, but the decrease is substantially larger than that in the real atmosphere.

Yung, Yuk L.↗

A priori error analysis of high-order LL* (FOSLL*) finite element methods

A number of non-standard finite element methods have been proposed in recent years, each of which derives from a specific class of PDE-constrained norm minimization problems. The most notable examples are LL* methods. In this work, we argue that all high-order methods in this class should be expected to deliver substandard uniform h-refinement convergence rates. In fact, one may not even see rates proportional to the polynomial order p > 1 when the exact solution is a constant function. Here, we show that the convergence rate is limited by the regularity of an extraneous Lagrange multiplier variable which naturally appears via a saddle-point analysis. In turn, limited convergence rates appear because the regularity of this Lagrange multiplier is determined, in part, by the geometry of the domain. Numerical experiments support our conclusions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sensitivity and optimization of composite structures using MSC/NASTRAN

Design sensitivity analysis for composites will soon be available in MSC/NASTRAN. The design variables for composites can be lamina thicknesses, orientation angles, material properties or a combination of all three. With the increasing use of composites in aerospace and automotive industries, this general capability can be used in its own right for carrying out sensitivity analysis of complicated real-life structures. As part of a research effort, the sensitivity analysis was coupled with a general purpose optimizer. This preliminary version of the optimizer is capable of dealing with minimum weight structural design with a rather general design variable linking capability at the element level or system level. Only sizing type of design variables (i.e., lamina thicknesses) can be handled by the optimizer. Test cases were run and validated by comparison with independent finite element packages. The linking of design sensitivity capability for composites in MSC/NASTRAN with an optimizer would give designers a powerful automated tool to carry out practical opitmization design of real-life complicated composite structures.

Nagendra, Gopal K.↗

Uncertainty Improvement in the NASA Glenn Research Center 8- by 6-Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel

Within the past decade, a measurement uncertainty analysis (MUA) team was assembled at the NASA Glenn Research Center to assist the wind tunnel characterization team with quantification of uncertainty estimates for variables of interest in wind tunnels and test cells across the center. The initial analysis performed by the team was conducted on the 8- by 6- Foot Supersonic Wind Tunnel using results from the 1996/97 full calibration test entry. These MUA results were published in 2016 which included recommendations for methods to improve the uncertainty estimates for various variables of interest, such as changes to regression models, tunnel operation philosophy, and instrumentation choices. The wind tunnel characterization team utilized the proposed methods in 2019 during a full characterization test entry. Following publication of the 2019 test section characterization results, the MUA team pursued an update to the uncertainty estimates for the facility, which validated previous recommendations and revealed significantly reduced systematic uncertainties across most variables of interest. Inclusion of within-test repeat points in the 2019 test entry allowed for higher fidelity estimates of random uncertainty to be generated, as well. This collaboration between the facility, wind tunnel characterization, and MUA teams serves as an example of the data quality benefits that can be achieved through rigorous analysis of the sources of uncertainty in a ground-test facility.

Uncertainty↗

Deflections of anisotropic sandwich beams with variable face sheets and core thicknesses

A sandwich construction consists of a low-density core material with high strength face sheets bounded to the top and bottom surfaces. The construction has been widely used in the aerospace and marine industries due to its outstanding characteristics such as noise absorption, weight minimization, heat insulation, and better bending stiffness. In sandwich structures used in high-performance aircraft, the face sheets are often made of fiber-reinforced composite materials and the core is made of honeycomb. The structures may also have variable thickness so as to satisfy aerodynamic requirements. In the stress analysis, the constant-thickness face sheets are usually considered as membrane and the core is assumed to be inextensible but deformable in the thickness direction. The static behavior of variable-thickness, isotropic and homogeneous sandwich beams was successfully studied by employing a constant-thickness theory but allowing stiffnesses to vary in accordance with local thickness variations. It has been recently found in a refined theory that the analyses based on the constant thickness theory locally can lead to significant errors in structural responses if the sandwich beam is thickness-tapered and the cores are deformable in transverse shear. The errors arise mainly from two factors: (1) the transverse shear components of the membrane forces in the face sheets alter the transverse shears carried by the core; and (2) the face-sheet membrane strains arise from transverse shear deformation of the core. In practice the variable thickness may not only exist in core but also in face sheets. The thickness-variations may even be a type of step function. In this case the transverse shear stress in the face sheets and bending stress in the core should be taken into account in the refined theory mentioned. In the present study, energy principles are employed in deriving governing equations for general bending of anisotropic sandwich beams with variable thickness in both face sheets and cores. Solutions to these equations are based on a finite difference scheme. As an example in application, a simply supported thickness-tapered sandwich beam subject to a concentrated load at its center is considered. Let W' be the maximum deflection of the beam in which face sheets are considered as membrane, while W'' is that based on using the modified refined theory. It is found that W' is always larger than W'', however, the magnitude of (W'- W'') appears to be insensitive to the change of the taper of the beam.

Lu, Chu-Ho↗

Aerodynamic shape optimization using sensitivity analysis on third-order Euler equations

Two major advancements of an aerodynamic optimization method with two design variables are described. The first is represnted by an improved flow prediction method that uses the third-order accurate discretization of the Euler equations. This method makes it possible to predict the flowfield of a perturbed shape which generates shocks and other large gradients without intermediate CFD analysis. The second advancement is the use of every surface grid point as a design variable in the aerodynamic shape optimization problem. The improved algorithm is demonstrated by optimizing the ramp shape of a scramjet-afterbody configuration for maximum axial thrust. It is concluded that the improved flow-field prediction method eliminates most of the flow analysis and a priori guessing of all possible shapes from which the optimum is to be selected.

Baysal, Oktay↗

Rolling-Element Fatigue Testing and Data Analysis - A Tutorial

In order to rank bearing materials, lubricants and other design variables using rolling-element bench type fatigue testing of bearing components and full-scale rolling-element bearing tests, the investigator needs to be cognizant of the variables that affect rolling-element fatigue life and be able to maintain and control them within an acceptable experimental tolerance. Once these variables are controlled, the number of tests and the test conditions must be specified to assure reasonable statistical certainty of the final results. There is a reasonable correlation between the results from elemental test rigs with those results obtained with full-scale bearings. Using the statistical methods of W. Weibull and L. Johnson, the minimum number of tests required can be determined. This paper brings together and discusses the technical aspects of rolling-element fatigue testing and data analysis as well as making recommendations to assure quality and reliable testing of rolling-element specimens and full-scale rolling-element bearings.

Vlcek, Brian L.↗

The Automatic Assessment and Reduction of Noise Using Edge Pattern Analysis in Nonlinear Image Enhancement

Noise is the primary visibility limit in the process of non-linear image enhancement, and is no longer a statistically stable additive noise in the post-enhancement image. Therefore novel approaches are needed to both assess and reduce spatially variable noise at this stage in overall image processing. Here we will examine the use of edge pattern analysis both for automatic assessment of spatially variable noise and as a foundation for new noise reduction methods.

Jobson, Daniel J.↗

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗