Real-Time Resilience of Energy Systems [Slides]
This presentation summarizes the real-time resilience of energy systems (FY20-FY22) LDRD project.
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This presentation summarizes the real-time resilience of energy systems (FY20-FY22) LDRD project.
2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is an economically important platform chemical that can be used in a variety of chemical feedstocks, liquid fuels, and biosynthetic building blocks. While 2,3-BDO can be efficiently produced by fermentation, the fermentation requires continuous monitoring and control to maximize 2,3-BDO yields and minimize inhibitory coproducts. Because of the time required for sampling and at-line measurement of fermentation samples with high pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC), the ability for operators to perform real-time modification to fermentation conditions is limited. To overcome this challenge, researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have developed a calibration model which can predict the concentration of several analytes in real-time using near-infrared (NIR) spectra of the filtered fermentation broth. While significantly reducing the need for off-line sampling, NREL expects this technology to play a critical role in maximizing 2,3-BDO production. 2,3-butanediol (2,3-BDO) is a useful chemical platform that can be used to create a variety of products. For instance, 2,3-BDO can be (1) dehydrated and converted into methyl ethyl ketone, a liquid fuel additive or (2) deoxydehydrated into 1,3-butadiene for synthetic rubber, which can also be oligomerized in high yields to gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. In order to maximize 2,3-BDO production, frequent measurement of fermentation samples is needed, as small changes in oxygen concentration can drive the fermentation to undesired products. For example, oxygen-deficient conditions result in glycerol production, while excess oxygen concentrations result in acetoin production. This results in the need for measuring dissolved oxygen, glucose, and xylose concentrations in order to optimize the aeration rate of the fermentation. Traditional monitoring methods occurs off-line and can take up to 30 minutes per sample. With multiple fermenters and high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) injectors, resulting in the need for multiple samples, the sampling process can take hours to complete. NREL’s calibration model can predict the glucose, xylose, 2,3-BDO, acetoin, and glycerol concentrations from NIR spectra of filtered fermentation liquor samples. Using a partial least-squares (PLS) calibration model, NREL’s model can monitor the concentration of these analytes during subsequent fermentations at bench- and pilot-scale, demonstrating the utility of NIR spectroscopy combined with chemometrics for real-time, at-line monitoring of 2,3-BDO fermentations.
A novel flip-coil measurement system has been developed for the National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II) at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This paper describes the design, implementation, and commissioning of the new measurement bench, highlighting its key features, including improved mechanical stability, advanced data acquisition, and enhanced reproducibility. The system enables precise characterization of field integrals and multipole components, ensuring the optimal performance of Insertion Devices (IDs) before installation in the NSLS-II storage ring. The flip-coil system incorporates an innovative approach to minimize mechanical and electrical errors, which significantly improves the reproducibility of measurements. In addition, the system features a state-of-the-art data acquisition system that enables real-time monitoring and analysis, further enhancing the efficiency and accuracy of the measurement process. Furthermore, preliminary tests have demonstrated that the new system meets the stringent requirements for magnetic field characterization of advanced insertion devices, making it an essential tool for future ID commissioning and quality assurance at NSLS-II.
The Fermi–Hubbard model is a fundamental model in condensed matter physics that describes strongly correlated electrons. On the other hand, quantum computers are emerging as powerful tools for exploring the complex dynamics of these quantum many-body systems. In this work, we demonstrate the quantum simulation of the one-dimensional Fermi–Hubbard model using IBM's superconducting quantum computers, employing over 100 qubits. We introduce a first-order Trotterization scheme and extend it to an optimized second-order Trotterization for the time evolution in the Fermi–Hubbard model, specifically tailored for the limited qubit connectivity of quantum architectures, such as IBM's platforms. Notably, both Trotterization approaches are scalable and maintain a constant circuit depth at each Trotter step, regardless of the qubit count, enabling us to precisely investigate the relaxation dynamics in the Fermi–Hubbard model by measuring the expectation value of the Néel observable (staggered magnetization) for time-evolved quantum states. Lastly, our successful measurement of expectation values in such large-scale quantum many-body systems, especially at longer time scales with larger entanglement, highlights the quantum utility of superconducting quantum platforms over conventional classical approximation methods.
Accurate and quick identification of high-impedance faults (HIFs) is critical for the reliable operation of distribution systems. Unlike other faults in power grids, HIFs are very difficult to detect by conventional overcurrent relays due to the low fault current. Although HIFs can be affected by various factors, the voltage-current characteristics can substantially imply how the system responds to the disturbance and thus provides opportunities to effectively localize HIFs. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach for the identification of HIF events. To tackle the nonlinearity of the voltage-current trajectory, first, we formulate optimization problems to approximate the trajectory with piecewise functions. Then we collect the function features of all segments as inputs and use the support vector machine approach to efficiently identify HIFs at different locations. Numerical studies on the IEEE 123-node test feeder demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the proposed approach for real-time HIF identification.
The NAVSTAR Global Positioning System (GPS) in differential mode (DGPS) has been shown to be least accurate in the vertical axis. The vertical axis also has the most stringent accuracy requirements for aircraft precision approach and landing. A series of flight tests were conducted to evaluate a concept for improving the DGPS vertical axis navigation performance. These tests incorporated augmentation sensors to aid the DGPS navigation solution during terminal approach operations. A GPS receiver was installed on board a NASA helicopter and interfaced with a real-time digital computer system. A reconfigurable navigation filter programmed in the digital computer provided an augmented DGPS solution, with selectable inputs from a low-cost vertical accelerometer, a barometric altimeter, and the aircraft attitude gyros. The reference aircraft position was determined by a laser tracker. Extensive post-test analysis was done to optimize the filter performance during the terminal approach operation. Test results show that baro-altimeter aiding can significantly improve vertical axis performance. Follow-on tests are planned for the optimized configurations.
The ability to easily manipulate objects in a zero gravity environment will pay a key role in future space activities. Emphasis will be placed on robotic manipulation. This will serve to increase astronaut safety and utility in addition to several other benefits. The aim is to develop control laws for the zero gravity robotic end effectors. A hybrid force/position controller will be used. Sensory data available to the controller are obtained from an array of strain gauges and a linear potentiometer. Applying well known optimal control theoretical principles, the control which minimizes the transition time between positions is obtained. A robust force control scheme is developed which allows the desired holding force to be achieved smoothly without oscillation. In addition, an algorithm is found to determine contact force and contact location.
An efficient implementation of Generalized Predictive Control using a multi-layer feedforward neural network as the plant's nonlinear model is presented. In using Newton-Raphson as the optimization algorithm, the number of iterations needed for convergence is significantly reduced from other techniques. The main cost of the Newton-Raphson algorithm is in the calculation of the Hessian, but even with this overhead the low iteration numbers make Newton-Raphson faster than other techniques and a viable algorithm for real-time control. This paper presents a detailed derivation of the Neural Generalized Predictive Control algorithm with Newton-Raphson as the minimization algorithm. Simulation results show convergence to a good solution within two iterations and timing data show that real-time control is possible. Comments about the algorithm's implementation are also included.
The accurate prediction of aircraft trajectory by ground-based decision support tools is a critical component of air traffic management in the US National Airspace System (NAS). Accurate predictions of where the aircraft will be in the future or when they will arrive at specific locations (e.g., fixes) is a key enabler for sequencing and efficient arrival management of flights. Traditional physics based aircraft trajectory prediction relies on a simplified point-mass total energy model whose parameters are referred to as Aircraft Performance Model (APM) parameters. Even though the performance coefficients and weight of an aircraft are a vital part of the aircraft performance model’s predictions and accuracy, these coefficients are proprietary in nature and therefore, unavailable to decision-support tools. Current approaches freeze some coefficients to default base of aircraft data (BADA) values and optimize others. However, the APM parameters are highly coupled by the flight dynamics and prioritizing one parameter over others leads to bias and skewed predictions. To alleviate this problem, we provide a combined optimization framework to predict all the critical (thrust, drag and weight) APM parameters. This paper is focused on training Machine Learning (ML) models that map historical flights to optimized APM parameters that provide the best fit (in terms of prediction error). Our dataset obtained from NASA’s Sherlock data warehouse is comprised of thousands of historical flights and includes weather and track data collected from 2019. Using different subsets of relevant features (e.g., aircraft type), we trained several ML models to estimate the aircraft’s take off weight, drag polar coefficients (both parasitic and lift induced), and thrust settings (multiplier applied to the maximum engine thrust). The chosen flights are from three of the most common aircraft types (B738, B737, and A320) arriving at four airports (LAX, DEN, MSP, and DFW). Our ML approach is comprised of two different solutions: 1- using a subset of features that are known prior to the flight departure and do not change during flight (such as engine type, current temperature at departure & destination airports, aircraft type) and 2 - using a subset of temporal features of the flight trajectory (such as cruise altitude, Mach, airspeed, and rate of climb) in addition to the pre-departure features from the first solution. The labels or target variables are the APM parameters that were obtained by an optimized ordinary differential equations (ODE) fitting process (applied to individual flights). The ODE-fitting is very time intensive and is therefore performed offline. Thus, training an ML model to learn the relationship between the flight features and ODE-generated labels enables faster estimation of the APM parameters and is therefore amenable to real-time prediction. Various ML models including linear regression, random forest, XGBoost, and neural network were trained, and the results are compared. After model validation and hyperparameter-tuning, we observed that the Random Forest model outperformed the other three models by the overall mean square error (MSE) of 2% for the first solution and 1.5% for the second solution. Finally, the ML-derived parameters are compared against default BADA APM parameters using NASA’s Autonomy Development toolkit (ADK) simulation software. The simulation results for one of each aircraft type is shown and discussed.
Accurate and quick identification of high-impedance faults (HIFs) is critical for the reliable operation of distribution systems. Unlike other faults in power grids, HIFs are very difficult to detect by conventional overcurrent relays due to the low fault current. Although HIFs can be affected by various factors, the voltage-current characteristics can substantially imply how the system responds to the disturbance and thus provides opportunities to effectively localize HIFs. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach for the identification of HIF events. To tackle the nonlinearity of the voltage-current trajectory, first, we formulate optimization problems to approximate the trajectory with piecewise functions. Then we collect the function features of all segments as inputs and use the support vector machine approach to efficiently identify HIFs at different locations. Numerical studies on the IEEE 123-node test feeder demonstrate the validity and accuracy of the proposed approach for real-time HIF identification.
The ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition Challenge 1, from 2018 to 2019, focused on the basic Security Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow problem (SCOPF) for a single time period. The Challenge utilized sets of unique datasets generated by the ARPA-E GRID DATA program. Each dataset consisted of a collection of power system network models of different sizes with associated operating scenarios (snapshots in time defining instantaneous power demand, renewable generation, generator and line availability, etc.). The datasets were of two types: Real-Time, which included starting-point information, and Online, which did not. Week-Ahead data is also provided for some cases but was not used in the Competition. Although most datasets were synthetic and generated by GRIDDATA, a few came from industry and were only used in the Final Event. All synthetic Input Data and Team Results for the GO Competition Challenge 1 for the Sandbox, Trial Events 1 to 3, and the Final Event along with problem, format, scoring and rules descriptions are available here. Data for industry scenarios will not be made public. Challenge 1, a minimization problem, required two computational steps. Solver 1 or Code 1 solved the base SCOPF problem under a strict wall clock time limit, as would be the case in industry, and reported the base case operating point as output, which was used to compute the Objective Function value that was used as the scenario score. The feasibility of the solution was provided by the Solver 2 or Code 2, which solves the power flow problem for all contingencies based on the results from Solver 1. This is not normally done in industry, so the time limits were relaxed. In fact, there were no time limits for Trial Event 1. This proved to be a mistake, with some codes running for more than 90 hours, and a time limit of 2 seconds per contingency was imposed for all other events. Entrants were free to use their own Solver 2 or use an open-source version provided by the Competition. Containers, such as Docker, were considered to improve the portability of codes, but none that could reliably support a multi-node parallel computing environment, e.g., MPI, could be found. For more information on the competition and challenge see the "GO Competition Challenge 1 Information" and "GO Competition Challenge 1 Additional Information" resources below.
In this work, we investigated stochastic distribution control theory-based traffic signal optimization to achieve a smooth and uniform flow of vehicles through signalized intersections. In this context, the static and linear dynamic stochastic distribution models were developed to express the relationship between the signal timing and the traffic queue length together with its probability density function. Two stochastic distribution control algorithms were designed to control the signal timing at intersections such that the probability density function of the traffic queue of each intersection road segment is made as narrow and as small as possible. Also, a recursive input-output traffic queue estimation model was proposed, which is data-driven and dynamic in nature, to calculate real-time traffic queue length using traffic signal timings and loop-detector data. The control algorithms were evaluated for a one-signal corridor, two-signal corridor, and 2 x 2 network of signalized intersections. MATLAB simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the use of the proposed algorithms and comparison to the existing widely-used semi-actuated control has been made. Desired results were obtained.
Solar and other renewable energy systems are optimized using geophysical parameters describing information about the solar resource and meteorological environments and how those environments may be changing in time. The Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy Resource (POWER) team at the NASA LaRC Research Center deployed its first version of the revitalized POWER geophysical parameter website that employs Esri Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. This web application provides access to both time series and climatological data sets spanning from a few days behind real-time back to the early 1980’s with a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree, thus extending over 30 years. The GIS tools enable, generate and store climatological averages using spatial queries and calculations in a spatial database resulting in greater accessibility to government agencies, industry and individuals. There is an API that provides data through a URL coding and can also invoked inside user software packages. Output data formats now include ASCII, CSV, geoTiff, JSON and .netCDF. Since May 2018, over 10.4 TB of data have been delivered to fulfill over 110 million data requests from 240,000 unique user IPs (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). This presentation provides an overview of this project and the current version of the new POWER web capabilities through to the end usage. Surface solar parameters are adapted from both the NASA/GEWEX (Global and Energy Water Cycle Exchange) SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) project and the CERES (Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System) data products. The meteorological parameters are adapted from NASA’s MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). We review uncertainty of various basic parameters using surface measurements. After the introduction, we specifically discuss various clusters of parameters for equator pointing tilted surfaces that provide for the estimation of optimal tilt angle by month and year. The discussion will emphasize a few examples of how solar and building engineers are using the data products. We will then preview the capabilities of Version 2 featuring examples of hourly solar and meteorological data products, customized user reports and expanded web mapping services from CERES data products. The web services provide a unique, expandable resource for renewable energy systems engineers to design, evaluate and optimize to environments worldwide.
Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) is an outcome of lean thinking to eliminate waste and increase productivity. PLM is inextricably tied to the systems engineering business philosophy, coupled with a methodology by which personnel, processes and practices, and information technology combine to form an architecture platform for product design, development, manufacturing, operations, and decommissioning. In this model, which is being implemented by the Engineering Directorate at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Marshall Space Flight Center, total lifecycle costs are important variables for critical decisionmaking. With the ultimate goal to deliver quality products that meet or exceed requirements on time and within budget, PLM is a powerful tool to shape everything from engineering trade studies and testing goals, to integrated vehicle operations and retirement scenarios. This paper will demonstrate how the Engineering Directorate is implementing PLM as part of an overall strategy to deliver safe, reliable, and affordable space exploration solutions. It has been 30 years since the United States fielded the Space Shuttle. The next generation space transportation system requires a paradigm shift such that digital tools and knowledge management, which are central elements of PLM, are used consistently to maximum effect. The outcome is a better use of scarce resources, along with more focus on stakeholder and customer requirements, as a new portfolio of enabling tools becomes second nature to the workforce. This paper will use the design and manufacturing processes, which have transitioned to digital-based activities, to show how PLM supports the comprehensive systems engineering and integration function. It also will go through a launch countdown scenario where an anomaly is detected to show how the virtual vehicle created from paperless processes will help solve technical challenges and improve the likelihood of launching on schedule, with less hands-on labor needed for processing and troubleshooting. Sustainable space exploration solutions demand that all lifecycle phases be optimized. Adopting PLM, which has been used by the automotive industry for many years, for aerospace applications provides a foundation for strong, disciplined systems engineering and accountable return on investment by making lifecycle considerations variables in an iterative decision-making process. This paper combines the perspectives of the founding father of PLM, along with the experience of Engineering leaders who are implementing these processes and practices real-time. As the nation moves from an industrial-based society to one where information is a valued commodity, future NASA programs and projects will benefit from the experience being gained today for the exploration missions of tomorrow.
Abstract Real-time time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is presently the most accurate available method for computing electronic stopping powers from first principles. However, obtaining application-relevant results often involves either costly averages over multiple calculations or ad hoc selection of a representative ion trajectory. We consider a broadly applicable, quantitative metric for evaluating and optimizing trajectories in this context. This methodology enables rigorous analysis of the failure modes of various common trajectory choices in crystalline materials. Although randomly selecting trajectories is common practice in stopping power calculations in solids, we show that nearly 30% of random trajectories in an FCC aluminum crystal will not representatively sample the material over the time and length scales feasibly simulated with TDDFT, and unrepresentative choices incur errors of up to 60%. We also show that finite-size effects depend on ion trajectory via “ouroboros” effects beyond the prevailing plasmon-based interpretation, and we propose a cost-reducing scheme to obtain converged results even when expensive core-electron contributions preclude large supercells. This work helps to mitigate poorly controlled approximations in first-principles stopping power calculations, allowing 1–2 order of magnitude cost reductions for obtaining representatively averaged and converged results.
Ultrafast electron diffraction (UED) stands as a powerful technique for real-time observation of structural dynamics at the atomic level. In recent years, the use of MeV electrons from radio frequency guns has been widely adopted to take advantage of the relativistic suppression of the space charge effects that otherwise limit the temporal resolution of the technique. Nevertheless, there is not a clear choice for the optimal energy for a UED instrument. Scaling to beam energies higher than a few MeV does pose significant technical challenges, mainly related to the inherent increase in diffraction camera length associated with the smaller Bragg angles. In this study, we report a solution by using a compact post-sample magnetic optical system to magnify the diffraction pattern from a crystal Au sample illuminated by an 8.2 MeV electron beam. Our method employs, as one of the lenses of the optical system, a triplet of compact, high field gradients (>500 T/m), small-gap (3.5 mm) Halbach permanent magnet quadrupoles. Shifting the relative position of the quadrupoles, we demonstrate tuning the magnification by more than a factor of two, a 6× improvement in camera length, and reciprocal space resolution better than 0.1 Å –1 in agreement with beam transport simulations.
The high-energy-density (HED) physics community is moving toward a new paradigm of high-repetition-rate (HRR) operation. To fully leverage the scientific power of HRR HED facilities, all of the components of each subsystem (laser, targetry, and performance diagnostics) must be connected and synchronized in a reliable and robust manner while the data acquired are tagged and archived in real time. To this end, GA has begun developing a generalized NoSQL-database framework, the MongoDB repository for information and archiving. An organizational strategy has been developed that shifts HED data organization from a shot-based to a diagnostic-based approach in order to increase archival and retrieval efficiency that lends itself to optimization applications. This work is a first step in pushing HRR HED science toward data management solutions that emphasize machine actionability and aim to stimulate community engagement to define data standards in HED science.
To impact physical mechanical system design decisions and realize the full promise of high-fidelity computational tools, simulation results must be integrated at the earliest stages of the design process. This is particularly challenging when dealing with uncertainty and optimizing for system-level performance metrics, as full-system models (often notoriously expensive and time-consuming to develop) are generally required to propagate uncertainties to system-level quantities of interest. Methods for propagating parameter and boundary condition uncertainty in networks of interconnected components hold promise for enabling design under uncertainty in real-world applications. These methods avoid the need for time consuming mesh generation of full-system geometries when changes are made to components or subassemblies. Additionally, they explicitly tie full-system model predictions to component/subassembly validation data which is valuable for qualification. These methods work by leveraging the fact that many engineered systems are inherently modular, being comprised of a hierarchy of components and subassemblies that are individually modified or replaced to define new system designs. By doing so, these methods enable rapid model development and the incorporation of uncertainty quantification earlier in the design process. The resulting formulation of the uncertainty propagation problem is iterative. We express the system model as a network of interconnected component models, which exchange solution information at component boundaries. We present a pair of approaches for propagating uncertainty in this type of decomposed system and provide implementations in the form of an open-source software library. We demonstrate these tools on a variety of applications and demonstrate the impact of problem-specific details on the performance and accuracy of the resulting UQ analysis. This work represents the most comprehensive investigation of these network uncertainty propagation methods to date.