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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,513 records · Page 84
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

A Saturnian stratospheric seasonal climate model

Motivated by recent observational evidence that seasonal processes occur within Saturn's stratosphere, a seasonal stratospheric climate model has been constructed. This model predicts stratospheric temperatures above the P = 0.1-atm level as a function of time throughout the Saturnian year. Specific results are presented for south-polar and equatorial temperatures. The model predicts that substantial seasonal phase lags exist; maximum stratospheric temperatures at the south pole occur at the southern hemisphere's autumnal equinox. Brightness temperature observations at 17.8 microns, taken during 1977/1978, indicate that stratospheric temperatures are greater at the south pole than at the equator. The model is consistent with these observations, predicting enhanced south polar temperatures, relative to the equator, from 1975 to 1983.

Cess, R. D.↗
DOE OSTI2020

MHD stability and disruptions in the SPARC tokamak

SPARC is being designed to operate with a normalized beta of $β_N$ = 1.0, a normalized density of $n_G$ = 0.37 and a safety factor of $q_{95}$ ≈ 3.4, providing a comfortable margin to their respective disruption limits. Further, a low beta poloidal $β_p$ = 0.19 at the safety factor $\textit{q}$ = 2 surface reduces the drive for neoclassical tearing modes, which together with a frozen-in classically stable current profile might allow access to a robustly tearing-free operating space. Although the inherent stability is expected to reduce the frequency of disruptions, the disruption loading is comparable to and in some cases higher than that of ITER. The machine is being designed to withstand the predicted unmitigated axisymmetric halo current forces up to 50 MN and similarly large loads from eddy currents forced to flow poloidally in the vacuum vessel. Runaway electron (RE) simulations using GO+CODE show high flattop-to-RE current conversions in the absence of seed losses, although NIMROD modelling predicts losses of ~80 %; self-consistent modelling is ongoing. A passive RE mitigation coil designed to drive stochastic RE losses is being considered and COMSOL modelling predicts peak normalized fields at the plasma of order 10 –2 that rises linearly with a change in the plasma current. Massive material injection is planned to reduce the disruption loading. A data-driven approach to predict an oncoming disruption and trigger mitigation is discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

How AI Predicts the Untrained and Unseen

Focus Area: Model predictability improvements (Primary); Data optimization (secondary); Data complexity insights (secondary). The Scientific Challenge: If we believe that a future under extreme conditions will look very differently from today, we can likely agree that ML/AI models trained on past and present datasets will not be adequate to make reliable predictions into the future. This is true for water cycling, as well as biogeochemistry and other Earth system components and behaviors. Additionally, ML/AI models are inherently non-physical. Despite the flourishing success of ML/AI in many applications, such as computer vision, natural language process, and gaming, even the most sophisticated AI models don’t understand the very basic physical laws. Therefore, a natural question is: Can we trust ML/AI based predictions of Earth system behaviors that are fundamentally driven by physical laws? So, are physics models with meticulous process representation a better choice? Not exactly. Physical models, when firmly rooted in first principles, work great at predicting behaviors of systems with a well-defined set of boundary conditions and variables. However, as a complex system, the number of parameters and the degree of complexity and dynamics in processes, coupling, and scale dependent emergent behaviors make the Earth system behaviors very challenging to predict with physical models composed of deterministic laws. In addition, due to the lack of fundamental understandings, physical models often implement empirical correlations derived from observations with biases from locality of data generation. Because correlation is not necessarily causation or comply with first principles, scaling of model predictions beyond locality is often invalid. Beyond the limitation of models, physics or AI, our knowledge of the Earth system is limited by the lack of observational technologies and resources. Insufficient data density, dimensionality and diversity only offer a sliced (or projected) view of the Earth system, e.g. Plato’s Cave analogy, limiting our capability to better understand and represent fundamental processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

Modeling aerosol losses and clothing effects in fires

The described modification of a physiochemical fire model predicts physical effects in clothed humans exposed to elevated temperatures as well as gas and aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere of an aerospace vehicle. The modifications involve the reduction in aerosol concentrations caused by settling and some improvements in dealing with mass and heat transfer effects. Predicted skin temperatures are found to be within 2 C of experimental values for the cases studied, and model predictions of total body enthalpy seem to correlate with symptomology observed experimentally.

Cagliostro, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The measurement of atomic oxygen in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere

A discussion of the laboratory calibration, calibration simulation, and accuracy of a resonance fluorescence instrument for measuring oxygen atoms is presented. The discussion demonstrates that a sensor can be calibrated with good accuracy to obtain in situ measurements of the oxygen density in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere. Oxygen data are reported from six rocket flights. These data represent four midlatitude flights and two auroral flights. There are two night and two day profiles for the midlatitude experiments. The maximum densities found from these sets of data in the 90-100 km regions are between 1.5 x 10 to the 11th/cu cm and 3.5 x 10 to the 11th/cu cm. Agreement with the MSIS-86 model predictions is obtained for altitudes above 120 km for midlatitude flights. The auroral data are less than the model prediction by about a factor of 2. The data show structure that is probably indicative of gravity wave effects of a nominal 5-km vertical wavelength.

Sharp, William E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

International Space Station 2A Array Modal Analysis

On December 9th 2009, the International Space Station (ISS) 2A solar array mast experienced prolonged longeron shadowing during a Soyuz undocking. Analytical reconstruction of induced thermal and dynamic structural loads showed an exceedance of the mast buckling limit. Possible structural damage to the solar array mast could have occurred during this event. A Low fidelity video survey of the 2A mast showed no obvious damage of the mast longerons or battens. The decision was made to conduct an on-orbit dynamic test of the 2A array on December 18th, 2009. The test included thruster pluming on the array while photogrammetry data was recorded. The test was similar to other Dedicated Thruster Firings (DTFs) that were performed to measure structural frequency and damping of a solar array. Results of the DTF indicated lower frequency mast modes than model predictions, thus leading to speculation of mast damage. A detailed nonlinear analysis was performed on the 2A array model to assess possible solutions to modal differences. The setup of the parametric nonlinear trade study included the use of a detailed array model and the reduced mass and stiffness matrices of the entire ISS being applied to the array interface. The study revealed that the array attachment structure is nonlinear and thus was the source of error in the model prediction of mast modes. In addition, a detailed study was performed to determine mast mode sensitivity to mast longeron damage. This sensitivity study was performed to assess if the ISS program has sufficient instrumentation for mast damage detection.

Laible, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2023

Polar Firn Properties in Greenland and Antarctica and Related Effects on Microwave Brightness Temperatures

In studying the mass balance of polar ice sheets, fluctuations of firn density near the surface is a major uncertainty. In this paper, we explore these variations at locations in the Greenland Ice Sheet and at the Dome C location in Antarctica. Borehole in situ measurements, Snow Radar echoes, microwave brightness temperatures, and modelling results from the Community firn model (CFM) are used. It is shown that firn density profiles can be represented using 3 processes: “long” and “short” length scale density variations and “refrozen layers”. Consistency with this description is observed in the dynamic range of airborne 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperatures and Snow Radar echo peaks in measurements performed in Greenland in 2017. Based on these insights, a new analytical partially coherent model is implemented to explain the microwave brightness temperatures using the three scale description of the firn. Short and long scale firn processes are modelled as a 3D continuous random medium with finite vertical and horizontal correlation lengths as opposed to past 1D random layered medium descriptions. Refrozen layers are described as deterministic sheets with planar interfaces, with the number of refrozen layer interfaces determined by radar observations. Firn density and correlation length parameters used in forward modelling to match measured 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperatures in Greenland show consistency with similar parameters in CFM predictions. Model predictions also are in good agreement with multi-angle 1.4 GHz vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperature measured by the SMOS satellite at DOME C, Antarctica. This work shows that co-located active and passive microwave measurements can be used to infer polar firn properties that can be compared with predictions of the CFM. In particular, 0.5-2 GHz brightness temperature measurements are shown to be sensitive to long scale firn density fluctuations with density standard deviations in the range 0.01-0.06 g/cm^3 and vertical correlation lengths of 6-20 cm.

Haokui Xu↗
NASA NTRS1979

Use of refinery computer model to predict fuel production

Several factors (crudes, refinery operation and specifications) that affect yields and properties of broad specification jet fuel were parameterized using the refinery simulation model which can simulate different types of refineries were used to make the calculations. Results obtained from the program are used to correlate yield as a function of final boiling point, hydrogen content and freezing point for jet fuels produced in two refinery configurations, each one processing a different crude mix. Refinery performances are also compared in terms of energy consumption.

Flores, F. J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Role of muscle pulleys in producing eye position-dependence in the angular vestibuloocular reflex: a model-based study

It is well established that the head and eye velocity axes do not always align during compensatory vestibular slow phases. It has been shown that the eye velocity axis systematically tilts away from the head velocity axis in a manner that is dependent on eye-in-head position. The mechanisms responsible for producing these axis tilts are unclear. In this model-based study, we aimed to determine whether muscle pulleys could be involved in bringing about these phenomena. The model presented incorporates semicircular canals, central vestibular pathways, and an ocular motor plant with pulleys. The pulleys were modeled so that they brought about a rotation of the torque axes of the extraocular muscles that was a fraction of the angle of eye deviation from primary position. The degree to which the pulleys rotated the torque axes was altered by means of a pulley coefficient. Model input was head velocity and initial eye position data from passive and active yaw head impulses with fixation at 0 degrees, 20 degrees up and 20 degrees down, obtained from a previous experiment. The optimal pulley coefficient required to fit the data was determined by calculating the mean square error between data and model predictions of torsional eye velocity. For active head impulses, the optimal pulley coefficient varied considerably between subjects. The median optimal pulley coefficient was found to be 0.5, the pulley coefficient required for producing saccades that perfectly obey Listing's law when using a two-dimensional saccadic pulse signal. The model predicted the direction of the axis tilts observed in response to passive head impulses from 50 ms after onset. During passive head impulses, the median optimal pulley coefficient was found to be 0.21, when roll gain was fixed at 0.7. The model did not accurately predict the alignment of the eye and head velocity axes that was observed early in the response to passive head impulses. We found that this alignment could be well predicted if the roll gain of the angular vestibuloocular reflex was modified during the initial period of the response, while pulley coefficient was maintained at 0.5. Hence a roll gain modification allows stabilization of the retinal image without requiring a change in the pulley effect. Our results therefore indicate that the eye position-dependent velocity axis tilts could arise due to the effects of the pulleys and that a roll gain modification in the central vestibular structures may be responsible for countering the pulley effect.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low responsiveness of machine learning models to critical or deteriorating health conditions

Machine learning (ML) based mortality prediction models can be immensely useful in intensive care units. Such a model should generate warnings to alert physicians when a patient’s condition rapidly deteriorates, or their vitals are in highly abnormal ranges. Before clinical deployment, it is important to comprehensively assess a model’s ability to recognize critical patient conditions. We develop multiple medical ML testing approaches, including a gradient ascent method and neural activation map. We systematically assess these machine learning models’ ability to respond to serious medical conditions using additional test cases, some of which are time series. Guided by medical doctors, our evaluation involves multiple machine learning models, resampling techniques, and four datasets for two clinical prediction tasks. We identify serious deficiencies in the models’ responsiveness, with the models being unable to recognize severely impaired medical conditions or rapidly deteriorating health. For in-hospital mortality prediction, the models tested using our synthesized cases fail to recognize 66% of the injuries. In some instances, the models fail to generate adequate mortality risk scores for all test cases. Our study identifies similar kinds of deficiencies in the responsiveness of 5-year breast and lung cancer prediction models. Using generated test cases, we find that statistical machine-learning models trained solely from patient data are grossly insufficient and have many dangerous blind spots. Most of the ML models tested fail to respond adequately to critically ill patients. How to incorporate medical knowledge into clinical machine learning models is an important future research direction.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

In Situ X-ray Radiography and Computational Modeling to Predict Grain Morphology in $\beta$-Titanium during Simulated Additive Manufacturing

The continued development of metal additive manufacturing (AM) has expanded the engineering metallic alloys for which these processes may be applied, including beta-titanium alloys with desirable strength-to-density ratios. To understand the response of beta-titanium alloys to AM processing, solidification and microstructure evolution needs to be investigated. In particular, thermal gradients (Gs) and solidification velocities (Vs) experienced during AM are needed to link processing to microstructure development, including the columnar-to-equiaxed transition (CET). In this work, in situ synchrotron X-ray radiography of the beta-titanium alloy Ti-10V-2Fe-3Al (wt.%) (Ti-1023) during simulated laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF) was performed at the Advanced Photon Source at Argonne National Laboratory, allowing for direct determination of Vs. Two different computational modeling tools, SYSWELD and FLOW-3D, were utilized to investigate the solidification conditions of spot and raster melt scenarios. The predicted Vs obtained from both pieces of computational software exhibited good agreement with those obtained from in situ synchrotron X-ray radiography measurements. The model that accounted for fluid flow also showed the ability to predict trends unobservable in the in situ synchrotron X-ray radiography, but are known to occur during rapid solidification. A CET model for Ti-1023 was also developed using the Kurz–Giovanola–Trivedi model, which allowed modeled Gs and Vs to be compared in the context of predicted grain morphologies. Both pieces of software were in agreement for morphology predictions of spot-melts, but drastically differed for raster predictions. The discrepancy is attributable to the difference in accounting for fluid flow, resulting in magnitude-different values of Gs for similar Vs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flux effects in precipitation under irradiation simulation of Fe-Cr alloys

Radiation-enhanced precipitation of Cr-rich α’ in irradiated Fe-Cr alloys, which results in hardening and embrittlement, depends on the irradiating particle and the displacement per atom (dpa) rate. Here, we utilize a Cahn-Hilliard phase-field based approach, that includes simple models for nucleation, irradiating particle and rate dependent radiation-enhanced diffusion and cascade mixing to simulate α’ evolution under neutrons, heavy ions, and electron irradiations. Different irradiating particles manifest very different cascade mixing efficiencies. The model was calibrated using neutron data. For cascade inducing neutron/heavy-ion dpa rates at 300 °C between 10-8 and 10-6 dpa/s the model predicts approximately constant number density, decreasing radius, decreasing α’ Cr composition, and lower α’ volume fraction. The model then predicts a dramatic transition to no α’ formation above approximately 10-5 dpa/s, while electron irradiation, with weak mixing, had little effect at dpa rates up to 10-3 dpa/s. These model predictions are consistent with experiments. We explain the results in terms of the flux dependence of the radiation enhanced diffusion, cascade mixing, and their ratio, which all vary significantly in relevant flux ranges for neutron and cascade inducing ion irradiations. These results show that both cascade mixing and radiation enhanced diffusion must be accounted for when attempting to emulate neutron-irradiation effects using accelerated ion irradiations.

Ke, Jia-Hong↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Natural and Accelerated Evolution of EVA Adhesion Through Intermediate Exposures

Ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) encapsulants comprise the majority of the encapsulants currently in use; much work has been done to understand and model the adhesive characteristics of EVA-encapsulated modules, but limited work has provided reliable insight into adhesion during the intermediate stages of exposure, limiting the ability to validate model predictions in this range. We provide the adhesion energy measurements for EVA adhesion after nearly six years of field aging and 10 000 h of accelerated aging. Both field and accelerated aging reveal a distinct plateau that emerges during the intermediate exposure periods (after one year in the field and after 1000 h in a chamber). At 10 000 h, adhesion within accelerated aged minimodules falls to a level generally seen after long-term field exposures (>15 years). Previous modeling predicted that adhesion would steadily decrease over the lifetime of a module, but these current results uncover an intermediate plateauing trend that is important to accurately modeling the evolution of adhesion and predicting adhesive failure. Based on these findings, three key model refinements concerning the rate of UV-radical formation and subsequent β-scission, the rate and acceleration of hydrolytic depolymerization, and the profile of the plasticity contribution over time are implemented and discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Radiometric responsivity determination for Feature Identification and Location Experiment (FILE) flown on space shuttle mission

A procedure was developed to obtain the radiometric (radiance) responsivity of the Feature Identification and Local Experiment (FILE) instrument in preparation for its flight on Space Shuttle Mission 41-G (November 1984). This instrument was designed to obtain Earth feature radiance data in spectral bands centered at 0.65 and 0.85 microns, along with corroborative color and color-infrared photographs, and to collect data to evaluate a technique for in-orbit autonomous classification of the Earth's primary features. The calibration process incorporated both solar radiance measurements and radiative transfer model predictions in estimating expected radiance inputs to the FILE on the Shuttle. The measured data are compared with the model predictions, and the differences observed are discussed. Application of the calibration procedure to the FILE over an 18-month period indicated a constant responsivity characteristic. This report documents the calibration procedure and the associated radiometric measurements and predictions that were part of the instrument preparation for flight.

Wilson, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

New observations of stratospheric N2O5

The unequivocal detection of N2O5 in the stratosphere was reported by Toon et al. based on measurements of the absorption by the N2O5 bands at 1246 and 1720/cm in solar occulation spectra recorded at sunrise near 47 S latitude by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy (ATMOS) experiment during the Spacelab 3 (SL3) shuttle mission. Additional measurements and analysis of stratospheric N2O5 derived from the ATMOS/SL3 spectra are reported. The primary results are the detection and measurement of N2O5 absorption at sunset in the lower stratosphere, the inversion of a precise (approximately 10 percent) N2O5 sunrise vertical distribution between 25.5 and 37.5 km altitude, and the identification and measurement of absorption by the N2O5 743/cm band at sunrise. Assuming 4.32 x 10(sup -17) and 4.36 x 10(sup -17)/cm/molecule/sq cm respectively for the integrated intensities of the 1246 and 743/cm bands at stratospheric temperatures, retrieved volume mixing ratios in parts per billion by volume (ppbv) at sunrise (47 S latitude) are 1.32 + or - 0.34 at 37.5 km, 1.53 + or - 0.35 at 35.5 km, 1.63 + or - 0.36 at 33.5 km, 1.60 + or - 0.34 at 31.5 km, 1.43 + or - 0.30 at 29.5 km, 1.15 + or - 0.24 at 27.5 km, and 0.73 + or - 0.15 at 25.5 km. Retrieved VMRs in ppbv at sunset (30 N latitude) are 0.13 + or - 0.05 at 29.5 km, 0.14 + or - 0.05 at 27.5 km, and 0.10 + or - 0.04 at 25.5 km. Quoted error limits (1 sigma) include the error in the assumed band intensities (approximately 20 percent). Within the error limits of the measurements, the inferred mixing ratios at sunrise agree with diurnal photochemical model predictions obtained by two groups using current photochemical data. The measured mixing ratios at sunset are lower than the model predictions with differences of about a factor of 2 at 25 km altitude.

Rinsland, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Modeling marine boundary-layer clouds with a two-layer model: A one-dimensional simulation

A two-layer model of the marine boundary layer is described. The model is used to simulate both stratocumulus and shallow cumulus clouds in downstream simulations. Over cold sea surfaces, the model predicts a relatively uniform structure in the boundary layer with 90%-100% cloud fraction. Over warm sea surfaces, the model predicts a relatively strong decoupled and conditionally unstable structure with a cloud fraction between 30% and 60%. A strong large-scale divergence considerably limits the height of the boundary layer and decreases relative humidity in the upper part of the cloud layer; thus, a low cloud fraction results. The efffects of drizzle on the boundary-layer structure and cloud fraction are also studied with downstream simulations. It is found that drizzle dries and stabilizes the cloud layer and tends to decouple the cloud from the subcloud layer. Consequently, solid stratocumulus clouds may break up and the cloud fraction may decrease because of drizzle.

Wang, Shouping↗
NASA NTRS2019

Demisability of GFRP and CFRP Components of Reentering Orbital Debris: Phase I Test Results

Observations of surviving reentry debris on the ground and research performed by Hyperschall Technologie Göttingen (HTG) [1] indicated that significantly more glass fiber-reinforced polymer (GFRP) and carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) components survive reentry than current models predict. NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office conducted a series of tests to evaluate the accuracy of material demise models for reentering orbital debris used in NASA’s Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) and Debris Assessment Software (DAS). Testing is planned in a multi-phase series to allow for quick quantification of results as well as refinement of methods resulting from lessons learned during early phases. The Phase 1 tests discussed here validated ORSAT models for homogeneous metals, provided an efficient quantification of composite material demisability properties like mass loss rate and overall time to demise, and identified potential failure modes, which are currently not well understood. Phase 2 tests will be used to further understand mass loss rates and modes of both thermal and mechanical failure in composite materials. The authors exposed 95 samples of aluminum, CFRP, Kevlar fiber-reinforced polymer, GFRP, and sheets of G10 fiberglass to conditions approximating the reentry environment using an inductively coupled plasma (ICP) torch facility. The cylindrical CFRP samples were exposed to the atmospheric pressure plasma, at both the end and the midpoint, to investigate the difference in demisability between parts with exposed edges, like panels, and parts with no edges, such as carbonoverwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs). In a non-oxidative environment, no composite materials demised within the 5-minute test time. In the oxidative, elevated heat flux environment, CFRP samples demised between 210 s and 270 s. For the first 100 s of insertion time, most of the mass loss was due to pyrolysis of resin, creating an approximately bi-linear mass-loss rate curve with time. In a non-oxidative environment, carbon filaments were observed to unravel from some of the CFRP end-burned samples; however, this effect did not seem to affect the overall time to demise for the samples significantly. These results indicate that both GFRP and CFRP components survive reentry with significantly more remaining mass than current models predict.

Greene, Benton R.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Analytical Solutions and U-Net Model for Predicting Groundwater Contaminant Plumes in Pump-and-Treat Systems

Pump-and-treat (P&T) is a common technique for groundwater remediation involving the extraction and treatment of contaminated water above ground. Optimizing the design and operation of the P&T well network is essential for maximizing the system’s effectiveness and efficiency. However, this optimization often necessitates many model evaluations, leading to computationally demanding tasks. This study introduces a novel approach that integrates analytical solutions for groundwater dynamics with the U-Net (Ronneberger et al., 2015) deep learning framework to predict groundwater contaminant plume migration under dynamic pumping conditions. By incorporating the Thiem equation (Thiem, 1906) into the input preprocessing, the U-Net model transforms sparse well data into a continuous spatial field that captures the hydraulic impacts of pumping activities. This integration enables the model to leverage both deep learning capabilities and classical physics-based groundwater theories, enhancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. These advancements can facilitate rapid, large-scale evaluations of P&T optimization simulations, allowing for timely and effective decision-making in well placement and system management. We demonstrate the model's robust performance across both simplified transient 2D models and a more complex 3D heterogeneous site model at the 200 West P&T facility at the Hanford Site. The U-Net-based model offers substantial computational advantages, reducing simulation times significantly compared to full physics-based models and providing a powerful tool for rapid site evaluation and P&T system optimization, such as evaluating alternative P&T well network designs. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced machine learning models to significantly enhance the efficiency and sustainability of groundwater remediation efforts, offering a novel application of U-Net architecture in environmental science.

Pump-and-treat↗