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NASA NTRS2012

Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter

An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990-99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20 25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak.

Ham, Yoo-Geun↗
NASA NTRS2013

Interior Noise Predictions in the Preliminary Design of the Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2)

A prediction scheme was established to compute sound pressure levels in the interior of a simplified cabin model of the second generation Large Civil Tiltrotor (LCTR2) during cruise conditions, while being excited by turbulent boundary layer flow over the fuselage, or by tiltrotor blade loading and thickness noise. Finite element models of the cabin structure, interior acoustic space, and acoustically absorbent (poro-elastic) materials in the fuselage were generated and combined into a coupled structural-acoustic model. Fluctuating power spectral densities were computed according to the Efimtsov turbulent boundary layer excitation model. Noise associated with the tiltrotor blades was predicted in the time domain as fluctuating surface pressures and converted to power spectral densities at the fuselage skin finite element nodes. A hybrid finite element (FE) approach was used to compute the low frequency acoustic cabin response over the frequency range 6-141 Hz with a 1 Hz bandwidth, and the Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) approach was used to predict the interior noise for the 125-8000 Hz one-third octave bands.

Grosveld, Ferdinand W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Investigations of Fluid-Structure-Coupling and Turbulence Model Effects on the DLR Results of the Fifth AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

The accurate calculation of aerodynamic forces and moments is of significant importance during the design phase of an aircraft. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been strongly developed over the last two decades regarding robustness, efficiency, and capabilities for aerodynamically complex configurations. Incremental aerodynamic coefficients of different designs can be calculated with an acceptable reliability at the cruise design point of transonic aircraft for non-separated flows. But regarding absolute values as well as increments at off-design significant challenges still exist to compute aerodynamic data and the underlying flow physics with the accuracy required. In addition to drag, pitching moments are difficult to predict because small deviations of the pressure distributions, e.g. due to neglecting wing bending and twisting caused by the aerodynamic loads can result in large discrepancies compared to experimental data. Flow separations that start to develop at off-design conditions, e.g. in corner-flows, at trailing edges, or shock induced, can have a strong impact on the predictions of aerodynamic coefficients too. Based on these challenges faced by the CFD community a working group of the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee initiated in 2001 the CFD Drag Prediction Workshop (DPW) series resulting in five international workshops. The results of the participants and the committee are summarized in more than 120 papers. The latest, fifth workshop took place in June 2012 in conjunction with the 30th AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Conference. The results in this paper will evaluate the influence of static aeroelastic wing deformations onto pressure distributions and overall aerodynamic coefficients based on the NASA finite element structural model and the common grids.

Keye, Stefan↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prediction of Ablation Rates from Solid Surfaces Exposed to High Temperature Gas Flow

A mathematical model and a solution algorithm is developed to study the physics of high temperature heat transfer and material ablation and identify the problems associated with the flow of hydrogen gas at very high temperatures and velocities through pipes and various components of Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) motors. Ablation and melting can be experienced when the inner solid surface of the cooling channels and the diverging-converging nozzle of a Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) motor is exposed to hydrogen gas flow at temperatures around 2500 degrees Kelvin and pressures around 3.4 MPa. In the experiments conducted on typical NTR motors developed in 1960s, degradation of the cooling channel material (cracking in the nuclear fuel element cladding) and in some instances melting of the core was observed. This paper presents the results of a preliminary study based on two types of physics based mathematical models that were developed to simulate the thermal-hydrodynamic conditions that lead to ablation of the solid surface of a stainless steel pipe exposed to high temperature hydrogen gas near sonic velocities. One of the proposed models is one-dimensional and assumes the gas flow to be unsteady, compressible and viscous. An in-house computer code was developed to solve the conservations equations of this model using a second-order accurate finite-difference technique. The second model assumes the flow to be three-dimensional, unsteady, compressible and viscous. A commercial CFD code (Fluent) was used to solve the later model equations. Both models assume the thermodynamic and transport properties of the hydrogen gas to be temperature dependent. In the solution algorithm developed for this study, the unsteady temperature of the pipe is determined from the heat equation for the solid. The solid-gas interface temperature is determined from an energy balance at the interface which includes heat transfer from or to the interface by conduction, convection, radiation, and ablation. Two different ablation models are proposed to determine the heat loss from the solid surface due to the ablation of the solid material. Both of them are physics based. Various numerical simulations were carried out using both models to predict the temperature distribution in the solid and in the gas flow, and then predict the ablation rates at a typical NTR motor hydrogen gas temperature and pressure. Solid mass loss rate per foot of a pipe was also calculated from these predictions. The results are presented for fully developed turbulent flow conditions in a sample SS pipe with a 6 inch diameter.

Akyuzlu, Kazim M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Observations on CFD Verification and Validation from the AIAA Drag Prediction Workshops

The authors provide observations from the AIAA Drag Prediction Workshops that have spanned over a decade and from a recent validation experiment at NASA Langley. These workshops provide an assessment of the predictive capability of forces and moments, focused on drag, for transonic transports. It is very difficult to manage the consistency of results in a workshop setting to perform verification and validation at the scientific level, but it may be sufficient to assess it at the level of practice. Observations thus far: 1) due to simplifications in the workshop test cases, wind tunnel data are not necessarily the “correct” results that CFD should match, 2) an average of core CFD data are not necessarily a better estimate of the true solution as it is merely an average of other solutions and has many coupled sources of variation, 3) outlier solutions should be investigated and understood, and 4) the DPW series does not have the systematic build up and definition on both the computational and experimental side that is required for detailed verification and validation. Several observations regarding the importance of the grid, effects of physical modeling, benefits of open forums, and guidance for validation experiments are discussed. The increased variation in results when predicting regions of flow separation and increased variation due to interaction effects, e.g., fuselage and horizontal tail, point out the need for validation data sets for these important flow phenomena. Experiences with a recent validation experiment at NASA Langley are included to provide guidance on validation experiments.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗
NASA NTRS2014

Unsteady Aerodynamic Validation Experiences From the Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop

The AIAA Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop (AePW) was held in April 2012, bringing together communities of aeroelasticians, computational fluid dynamicists and experimentalists. The extended objective was to assess the state of the art in computational aeroelastic methods as practical tools for the prediction of static and dynamic aeroelastic phenomena. As a step in this process, workshop participants analyzed unsteady aerodynamic and weakly-coupled aeroelastic cases. Forced oscillation and unforced system experiments and computations have been compared for three configurations. This paper emphasizes interpretation of the experimental data, computational results and their comparisons from the perspective of validation of unsteady system predictions. The issues examined in detail are variability introduced by input choices for the computations, post-processing, and static aeroelastic modeling. The final issue addressed is interpreting unsteady information that is present in experimental data that is assumed to be steady, and the resulting consequences on the comparison data sets.

Heeg, Jennifer↗
NASA NTRS2014

Toward Improved CFD Predictions of Slender Airframe Aerodynamics Using the F-16XL Aircraft (CAWAPI-2)

A coordinated project has been underway to improve CFD predictions of slender airframe aerodynamics. The work is focused on two flow conditions and leverages a unique flight data set obtained with an F-16XL aircraft. These conditions, a low-speed high angleof- attack case and a transonic low angle-of-attack case, were selected from a prior prediction campaign wherein the CFD failed to provide acceptable results. In this paper the background, objectives and approach to the current project are presented. The work embodies predictions from multiple numerical formulations that are contributed from multiple organizations, and the context of this campaign to other multi-code, multiorganizational efforts is included. The relevance of this body of work toward future supersonic commercial transport concepts is also briefly addressed.

Luckring, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Prediction and Analysis of Jet Flows and Scattered Turbulent Mixing Noise About Flight Vehicle Airframes

Jet flows interacting with nearby surfaces exhibit a complex behavior in which acoustic and aerodynamic characteristics are altered. The physical understanding and prediction of these characteristics are essential to designing future low noise aircraft. A new approach is created for predicting scattered jet mixing noise that utilizes an acoustic analogy and steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions. A tailored Green's function accounts for the propagation of mixing noise about the air-frame and is calculated numerically using a newly developed ray tracing method. The steady aerodynamic statistics, associated unsteady sound source, and acoustic intensity are examined as jet conditions are varied about a large at plate. A non-dimensional number is proposed to estimate the effect of the aerodynamic noise source relative to jet operating condition and airframe position. The steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions, acoustic analogy, tailored Green's function, non- dimensional number, and predicted noise are validated with a wide variety of measurements. The combination of the developed theory, ray tracing method, and careful implementation in a stand-alone computer program result in an approach that is more first principles oriented than alternatives, computationally efficient, and captures the relevant physics of fluid-structure interaction.

Miller, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Thermal Phase Variations of WASP-12b: Defying Predictions

We report Warm Spitzer full-orbit phase observations of WASP-12b at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers. This extremely inflated hot Jupiter is thought to be overflowing its Roche lobe, undergoing mass loss and accretion onto its host star, and has been claimed to have a C/O ratio in excess of unity. We are able to measure the transit depths, eclipse depths, thermal and ellipsoidal phase variations at both wavelengths. The large-amplitude phase variations, combined with the planet's previously measured dayside spectral energy distribution, are indicative of non-zero Bond albedo and very poor day-night heat redistribution. The transit depths in the mid-infrared-(R(sub p)/R(sub ∗))(sup 2) = 0.0123(3) and 0.0111(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively-indicate that the atmospheric opacity is greater at 3.6 than at 4.5 micrometers, in disagreement with model predictions, irrespective of C/O ratio. The secondary eclipse depths are consistent with previous studies: F(sub day)/F(sub ∗) = 0.0038(4) and 0.0039(3) at 3.6 and 4.5 micrometers, respectively. We do not detect ellipsoidal variations at 3.6 micrometers, but our parameter uncertainties-estimated via prayer-bead Monte Carlo-keep this non-detection consistent with model predictions. At 4.5 micrometers, on the other hand, we detect ellipsoidal variations that are much stronger than predicted. If interpreted as a geometric effect due to the planet's elongated shape, these variations imply a 3:2 ratio for the planet's longest:shortest axes and a relatively bright day-night terminator. If we instead presume that the 4.5 micrometer ellipsoidal variations are due to uncorrected systematic noise and we fix the amplitude of the variations to zero, the best-fit 4.5 micrometer transit depth becomes commensurate with the 3.6 micrometer depth, within the uncertainties. The relative transit depths are then consistent with a solar composition and short scale height at the terminator. Assuming zero ellipsoidal variations also yields a much deeper 4.5 micrometer eclipse depth, consistent with a solar composition and modest temperature inversion. We suggest future observations that could distinguish between these two scenarios.

planetary↗
NASA NTRS2014

What Was Learned in Predicting Slender Airframe Aerodynamics with the F16-XL Aircraft

The CAWAPI-2 coordinated project has been underway to improve CFD predictions of slender airframe aerodynamics. The work is focused on two flow conditions and leverages a unique flight data set obtained with the F-16XL aircraft for comparison and verification. These conditions, a low-speed high angle-of-attack case and a transonic low angle-of-attack case, were selected from a prior prediction campaign wherein the CFD failed to provide acceptable results. In re-visiting these two cases, approaches for improved results include better, denser grids using more grid adaptation to local flow features as well as unsteady higher-fidelity physical modeling like hybrid RANS/URANS-LES methods. The work embodies predictions from multiple numerical formulations that are contributed from multiple organizations where some authors investigate other possible factors that could explain the discrepancies in agreement, e.g. effects due to deflected control surfaces during the flight tests, as well as static aeroelastic deflection of the outer wing. This paper presents the synthesis of all the results and findings and draws some conclusions that lead to an improved understanding of the underlying flow physics, and finally making the connections between the physics and aircraft features.

Rizzi, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Prediction and Analysis of Jet Flows and Scattered Turbulent Mixing Noise about Flight Vehicle Airframes

Jet flows interacting with nearby surfaces exhibit a complex behavior in which acoustic and aerodynamic characteristics are altered. The physical understanding and prediction of these characteristics are essential to designing future low noise aircraft. A new approach is created for predicting scattered jet mixing noise that utilizes an acoustic analogy and steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions. A tailored Green's function accounts for the propagation of mixing noise about the airframe and is calculated numerically using a newly developed ray tracing method. The steady aerodynamic statistics, associated unsteady sound source, and acoustic intensity are examined as jet conditions are varied about a large flat plate. A non-dimensional number is proposed to estimate the effect of the aerodynamic noise source relative to jet operating condition and airframe position.The steady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions, acoustic analogy, tailored Green's function, non-dimensional number, and predicted noise are validated with a wide variety of measurements. The combination of the developed theory, ray tracing method, and careful implementation in a stand-alone computer program result in an approach that is more first principles oriented than alternatives, computationally efficient, and captures the relevant physics of fluid-structure interaction.

Miller, Steven A. E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Effect of General Statistical Fiber Misalignment on Predicted Damage Initiation in Composites

A micromechanical method is employed for the prediction of unidirectional composites in which the fiber orientation can possess various statistical misalignment distributions. The method relies on the probability-weighted averaging of the appropriate concentration tensor, which is established by the micromechanical procedure. This approach provides access to the local field quantities throughout the constituents, from which initiation of damage in the composite can be predicted. In contrast, a typical macromechanical procedure can determine the effective composite elastic properties in the presence of statistical fiber misalignment, but cannot provide the local fields. Fully random fiber distribution is presented as a special case using the proposed micromechanical method. Results are given that illustrate the effects of various amounts of fiber misalignment in terms of the standard deviations of in-plane and out-of-plane misalignment angles, where normal distributions have been employed. Damage initiation envelopes, local fields, effective moduli, and strengths are predicted for polymer and ceramic matrix composites with given normal distributions of misalignment angles, as well as fully random fiber orientation.

Micromechanical↗
NASA NTRS2014

Prediction of Acoustic Environments from Horizontal Rocket Firings

In recent years, advances in research and engineering have led to more powerful launch vehicles which yield acoustic environments potentially destructive to the vehicle or surrounding structures. Therefore, it has become increasingly important to be able to predict the acoustic environments created by these vehicles in order to avoid structural and/or component failure. The current industry standard technique for predicting launch-induced acoustic environments was developed by Eldred in the early 1970's. Recent work has shown Eldred's technique to be inaccurate for current state-of-the-art launch vehicles. Due to the high cost of full-scale and even sub-scale rocket experiments, very little rocket noise data is available. Much of the work thought to be applicable to rocket noise has been done with heated jets. A model to predict the acoustic environment due to a launch vehicle in the far-field was created. This was done using five sets of horizontally fired rocket data, obtained between 2008 and 2012. Through scaling analysis, it is shown that liquid and solid rocket motors exhibit similar spectra at similar amplitudes. This model is accurate for these five data sets within 5 dB of the measured data.

Kenny, R. Jeremy↗
NASA NTRS2014

Thermal Model Predictions of Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Performance

This paper presents recent thermal model results of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG). The three-dimensional (3D) ASRG thermal power model was built using the Thermal Desktop(trademark) thermal analyzer. The model was correlated with ASRG engineering unit test data and ASRG flight unit predictions from Lockheed Martin's (LM's) I-deas(trademark) TMG thermal model. The auxiliary cooling system (ACS) of the ASRG is also included in the ASRG thermal model. The ACS is designed to remove waste heat from the ASRG so that it can be used to heat spacecraft components. The performance of the ACS is reported under nominal conditions and during a Venus flyby scenario. The results for the nominal case are validated with data from Lockheed Martin. Transient thermal analysis results of ASRG for a Venus flyby with a representative trajectory are also presented. In addition, model results of an ASRG mounted on a Cassini-like spacecraft with a sunshade are presented to show a way to mitigate the high temperatures of a Venus flyby. It was predicted that the sunshade can lower the temperature of the ASRG alternator by 20 C for the representative Venus flyby trajectory. The 3D model also was modified to predict generator performance after a single Advanced Stirling Convertor failure. The geometry of the Microtherm HT insulation block on the outboard side was modified to match deformation and shrinkage observed during testing of a prototypic ASRG test fixture by LM. Test conditions and test data were used to correlate the model by adjusting the thermal conductivity of the deformed insulation to match the post-heat-dump steady state temperatures. Results for these conditions showed that the performance of the still-functioning inboard ACS was unaffected.

radioisotope power system↗
NASA NTRS2014

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the skill of boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) predictions with state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): GloSea4, CFSv2, GEOS-5, CanCM3, CanCM4, and CM2.1. Long-term reforecasts with the EPSs are used to evaluate how well they represent the AO and to assess the skill of both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of the AO. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper level wind, and precipitation associated with the different phases of the AO. The results demonstrate that most EPSs improve upon persistence skill scores for lead times up to 2 months in boreal winter, suggesting some potential for skillful prediction of the AO and its associated climate anomalies at seasonal time scales. It is also found that the skill of AO forecasts during the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that of the earlier period (1983-1996).

Arctic Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS2015

Correlation of Amine Swingbed On-Orbit CO2 Performance with a Hardware Independent Predictive Model

The Amine Swingbed Payload is an experimental system deployed on the International Space Station (ISS) that includes a two-bed, vacuum regenerated, amine-based carbon dioxide (CO2) removal subsystem as the principal item under investigation. The aminebased subsystem, also described previously in various publications as CAMRAS 3, was originally designed, fabricated and tested by Hamilton Sundstrand Space Systems International, Inc. (HSSSI) and delivered to NASA in November 2008. The CAMRAS 3 unit was subsequently designed into a flight payload experiment in 2010 and 2011, with flight test integration activities accomplished on-orbit between January 2012 and March 2013. Payload activation was accomplished in May 2013 followed by a 1000 hour experimental period. The experimental nature of the Payload and the interaction with the dynamic ISS environment present unique scientific and engineering challenges, in particular to the verification and validation of the expected Payload CO2 removal performance. A modeling and simulation approach that incorporates principles of chemical reaction engineering has been developed for the amine-based system to predict the dynamic cabin CO2 partial pressure with given inputs of sorbent bed size, process air flow, operating temperature, half-cycle time, CO2 generation rate, cabin volume and the magnitude of vacuum available. Simulation runs using the model to predict ambient CO2 concentrations show good correlation to on-orbit performance measurements and ISS dynamic concentrations for the assumed operating conditions. The dynamic predictive modelling could benefit operational planning to help ensure ISS CO2 concentrations are maintained below prescribed limits and for the Orion vehicle to simulate various operating conditions, scenarios and transients.

Papale, William↗
NASA NTRS2015

Variable-Domain Displacement Transfer Functions for Converting Surface Strains into Deflections for Structural Deformed Shape Predictions

Variable-Domain Displacement Transfer Functions were formulated for shape predictions of complex wing structures, for which surface strain-sensing stations must be properly distributed to avoid jointed junctures, and must be increased in the high strain gradient region. Each embedded beam (depth-wise cross section of structure along a surface strain-sensing line) was discretized into small variable domains. Thus, the surface strain distribution can be described with a piecewise linear or a piecewise nonlinear function. Through discretization, the embedded beam curvature equation can be piece-wisely integrated to obtain the Variable-Domain Displacement Transfer Functions (for each embedded beam), which are expressed in terms of geometrical parameters of the embedded beam and the surface strains along the strain-sensing line. By inputting the surface strain data into the Displacement Transfer Functions, slopes and deflections along each embedded beam can be calculated for mapping out overall structural deformed shapes. A long tapered cantilever tubular beam was chosen for shape prediction analysis. The input surface strains were analytically generated from finite-element analysis. The shape prediction accuracies of the Variable- Domain Displacement Transfer Functions were then determined in light of the finite-element generated slopes and deflections, and were fofound to be comparable to the accuracies of the constant-domain Displacement Transfer Functions

displacement transfer functions↗
NASA NTRS2014

Fine Particulate Matter Predictions Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Retrievals

To date, spatial-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) within urban areas have primarily been examined using models. On the other hand, satellites extend spatial coverage but their spatial resolution is too coarse. In order to address this issue, here we report on spatial variability in PM levels derived from high 1 km resolution AOD product of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for MODIS satellite. We apply day-specific calibrations of AOD data to predict PM(sub 2.5) concentrations within the New England area of the United States. To improve the accuracy of our model, land use and meteorological variables were incorporated. We used inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD and nested regions within days to capture spatial variation. With this approach we can control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM(sub 2.5) relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles and ground surface reflectance among others. Out-of-sample "ten-fold" cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of model predictions. Our results show that the model-predicted PM(sub 2.5) mass concentrations are highly correlated with the actual observations, with out-of- sample R(sub 2) of 0.89. Furthermore, our study shows that the model captures the pollution levels along highways and many urban locations thereby extending our ability to investigate the spatial patterns of urban air quality, such as examining exposures in areas with high traffic. Our results also show high accuracy within the cities of Boston and New Haven thereby indicating that MAIAC data can be used to examine intra-urban exposure contrasts in PM(sub 2.5) levels.

aerosol optical depth↗