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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

A Poisson method application to the assessment of the earthquake hazard in the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey

North Anatolian Fault (NAF) is one from the most important strike-slip fault zones in the world and located among regions in the highest seismic activity. The NAFZ observed very large earthquakes from the past to present. The aim of this study; the important parameters of Gutenberg-Richter relationship (a and b values) estimated and this parameters taking into account, earthquakes were examined in the between years 1900-2015 for 10 different seismic source regions in the NAFZ. After that estimated occurrence probabilities and return periods of occurring earthquakes in fault zone in the next years, and is being assessed with Poisson method the earthquake hazard of the NAFZ. The Region 2 were observed the largest earthquakes for the only historical period and hasn’t been observed large earthquake for the instrumental period in this region. Two historical earthquakes (1766, M{sub S}=7.3 and 1897, M{sub S}=7.0) are included for Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the next years. The 10 different seismic source regions are determined the relationships between the cumulative number-magnitude which estimated a and b parameters with the equation of LogN=a-bM in the Gutenberg-Richter. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M{sub S} magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for the time period between 1900 and 2015. The database of catalog used in the study has been created from International Seismological Center (ISC) and Boğazici University Kandilli observation and earthquake research institute (KOERI). The earthquake data were obtained until from 1900 to 1974 from KOERI and ISC until from 1974 to 2015 from KOERI. The probabilities of the earthquake occurring are estimated for the next 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years in the 10 different seismic source regions. The highest earthquake occur probabilities in 10 different seismic source regions in the next years estimated that the region Tokat-Erzincan (Region 9) %99 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 6.5 which the return period 24.7 year, %92 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 7 which the return period 39.1 year, %80 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 7.5 which the return period 62.1 year, %64 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 8 which the return period 98.5 year. For the Marmara Region (Region 2) in the next 100 year estimated that %89 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 6 which the return period 44.9 year, %45 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 6.5 which the return period 87 year, %45 with an earthquake occur probability for magnitude 7 which the return period 168.6 year.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Data for “Fast-decaying plant litter enhances soil carbon in temperate forests, but not through microbial physiological traits”

This data package contains data and code used in the paper “Fast-decaying plant litter enhances soil carbon in temperate forests, but not through microbial physiological traits”. This paper details results from two studies: 1) a laboratory leaf litter incubation experiment (lab experiment) and 2) a multi-site observational field study (field study). Both studies were designed to test the relationships among litter quality, microbial physiological traits, and mineral-associated soil carbon (C). In the lab experiment, we incubated 16 temperate tree litters of differing chemical quality with isotopically distinct soil, measuring microbial physiological traits and the flow of litter-derived C into the mineral-associated soil C pool. In the field study, we sampled soils (0-5 cm) across six eastern US temperate forests, measuring microbial physiological traits, soil abiotic properties, and leaf litter chemistry. The analysis data are provided in two .csv files corresponding to either the lab experiment or field study. Both files contain data on litter chemistry, microbial physiological traits (growth and turnover rates, and carbon use efficiency [CUE]), and the mineral-associated soil C pool. The lab experiment dataset additionally contains litter-derived versus soil-derived soil C, respiration, and litter decomposition parameters. The field study dataset additionally contains site-level climatic information, ectomycorrhizal dominance of plots, and plot-level soil properties. Also provided is the R code and output reproducing the results in the related publication. Analyses were originally performed using R version 3.6.1 using the package "lavaan" and the packages listed on lines 5-7 in the file "data.R".

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Incorporating Microtopography in a Land Surface Model and Quantifying the Effect on the Carbon Cycle

Abstract Northern peatlands are a terrestrial carbon store, with an annual sink of 0.1 Pg C yr −1 and a total storage estimate of 547 Pg C. Northern peatlands are also major contributors of atmospheric methane. Most land surface models do not accurately represent peatland carbon emissions, partly because they do not represent the hydrologic cycle and/or microtopography adequately. Interactions between water table depth and microtopography in peatlands influence decomposition and modulate CO 2 and CH 4 fluxes. A modified version of the land surface component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, was recently created to represent the microtopography and hydrology of a raised dome bog in northern Minnesota, USA. In this study, three microtopographic parameters are analyzed in the modified version: hummock height, hummock‐hollow spacing, and percent hollow. Terrestrial laser scanning observations are used to set uncertainty bounds for these parameters. Our model experiment results suggest that carbon‐related quantities of interest (QOI) were typically the most sensitive to hummock height, and those QOI (especially net ecosystem exchange, NEE) were sensitive to interactions between parameters. Furthermore, NEE was most relatively influenced by microtopographic parameters in the model, varying by 35%. We found that increasing hummock height resulted in more C being stored in plant tissue and less in soil organic matter. This coincided with decreases in Sphagnum and increases in Picea and shrub net primary production. These results suggest that future studies may consider extending prognostic capabilities of carbon cycling by incorporating hummock hollow microtopography into earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Lateral-Directional Parameter Estimation on the X-48B Aircraft Using an Abstracted, Multi-Objective Effector Model

The problem of parameter estimation on hybrid-wing-body aircraft is complicated by the fact that many design candidates for such aircraft involve a large number of aerodynamic control effectors that act in coplanar motion. This adds to the complexity already present in the parameter estimation problem for any aircraft with a closed-loop control system. Decorrelation of flight and simulation data must be performed in order to ascertain individual surface derivatives with any sort of mathematical confidence. Non-standard control surface configurations, such as clamshell surfaces and drag-rudder modes, further complicate the modeling task. In this paper, time-decorrelation techniques are applied to a model structure selected through stepwise regression for simulated and flight-generated lateral-directional parameter estimation data. A virtual effector model that uses mathematical abstractions to describe the multi-axis effects of clamshell surfaces is developed and applied. Comparisons are made between time history reconstructions and observed data in order to assess the accuracy of the regression model. The Cram r-Rao lower bounds of the estimated parameters are used to assess the uncertainty of the regression model relative to alternative models. Stepwise regression was found to be a useful technique for lateral-directional model design for hybrid-wing-body aircraft, as suggested by available flight data. Based on the results of this study, linear regression parameter estimation methods using abstracted effectors are expected to perform well for hybrid-wing-body aircraft properly equipped for the task.

Ratnayake, Nalin A.↗

Processing, physical metallurgy and creep of NiAl + Ta and NiAl + Nb alloys

Powder processed NiAl + Ta alloys containing 1, 2, and 4.5 at percent tantalum and NiAl + Nb alloys containing 1 and 2 at percent niobium were developed for improved creep properties. In addition, a cast alloy with 5 at percent tantalum was also studied. Hot extrusion parameters for processing alloys with 1 and 2 at percent of tantalum or niobium were designed. The NiAl + 4.5 at percent Ta alloy could be vacuum hot pressed successfully, even though it could not be extruded. All the phases in the multiphase alloys were identified and the phase transformations studied. The Ni2AlTa in NiAl + 4.5 at percent Ta alloy transforms into a liquid phase above 1700 K. Solutionizing and annealing below this temperature gives rise to a uniform distribution of fine second phase precipitates. Compressive creep properties were evaluated at 1300 K using constant load and constant velocity tests. In the higher strain rate region single phase NiAl + 1 at percent Ta and NiAl + 1 at percent Nb alloys exhibit a stress exponent of 5 characteristic of climb controlled dislocation creep. In slower strain rate regime diffusional creep becomes important. The two phase alloys containing 2 to 5 at percent Ta and 2 at percent Nb show considerable improvement over binary NiAl and single phase alloys. Loose dislocation networks and tangles stabilized by the precipitates were found in the as crept microstructure. The cast alloy which has larger grains and a distribution of fine precipitates shows the maximum improvement over binary NiAl.

Pathare, Viren M.↗

Geographic information system for fusion and analysis of high-resolution remote sensing and ground truth data

We seek to combine high-resolution remotely sensed data with models and ground truth measurements, in the context of a Geographical Information System, integrated with specialized image processing software. We will use this integrated system to analyze the data from two Case Studies, one at a bore Al forest site, the other a tropical forest site. We will assess the information content of the different components of the data, determine the optimum data combinations to study biogeophysical changes in the forest, assess the best way to visualize the results, and validate the models for the forest response to different radar wavelengths/polarizations. During the 1990's, unprecedented amounts of high-resolution images from space of the Earth's surface will become available to the applications scientist from the LANDSAT/TM series, European and Japanese ERS-1 satellites, RADARSAT and SIR-C missions. When the Earth Observation Systems (EOS) program is operational, the amount of data available for a particular site can only increase. The interdisciplinary scientist, seeking to use data from various sensors to study his site of interest, may be faced with massive difficulties in manipulating such large data sets, assessing their information content, determining the optimum combinations of data to study a particular parameter, visualizing his results and validating his model of the surface. The techniques to deal with these problems are also needed to support the analysis of data from NASA's current program of Multi-sensor Airborne Campaigns, which will also generate large volumes of data. In the Case Studies outlined in this proposal, we will have somewhat unique data sets. For the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest (Case I) calibrated DC-8 SAR data and extensive ground truth measurement are already at our disposal. The data set shows documented evidence to temporal change. The Belize Forest Experiment (Case II) will produce calibrated DC-8 SAR and AVIRIS data, together with extensive measurements on the tropical rain forest itself. The extreme range of these sites, one an Arctic forest, the other a tropical rain forest, has been deliberately chosen to find common problems which can lead to generalized observations and unique problems with data which raise issues for the EOS System.

Freeman, Anthony↗

Geographic information system for fusion and analysis of high-resolution remote sensing and ground data

We seek to combine high-resolution remotely sensed data with models and ground truth measurements, in the context of a Geographical Information System (GIS), integrated with specialized image processing software. We will use this integrated system to analyze the data from two Case Studies, one at a boreal forest site, the other a tropical forest site. We will assess the information content of the different components of the data, determine the optimum data combinations to study biogeophysical changes in the forest, assess the best way to visualize the results, and validate the models for the forest response to different radar wavelengths/polarizations. During the 1990's, unprecedented amounts of high-resolution images from space of the Earth's surface will become available to the applications scientist from the LANDSAT/TM series, European and Japanese ERS-1 satellites, RADARSAT and SIR-C missions. When the Earth Observation Systems (EOS) program is operational, the amount of data available for a particular site can only increase. The interdisciplinary scientist, seeking to use data from various sensors to study his site of interest, may be faced with massive difficulties in manipulating such large data sets, assessing their information content, determining the optimum combinations of data to study a particular parameter, visualizing his results and validating his model of the surface. The techniques to deal with these problems are also needed to support the analysis of data from NASA's current program of Multi-sensor Airborne Campaigns, which will also generate large volumes of data. In the Case Studies outlined in this proposal, we will have somewhat unique data sets. For the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest (Case 1) calibrated DC-8 SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) data and extensive ground truth measurement are already at our disposal. The data set shows documented evidence to temporal change. The Belize Forest Experiment (Case 2) will produce calibrated DC-8 SAR and AVIRIS data, together with extensive measurements on the tropical rain forest itself. The extreme range of these sites, one an Arctic forest, the other a tropical rain forest, has been deliberately chosen to find common problems which can lead to generalized observations and unique problems with data which raise issues for the EOS System.

Freeman, Anthony↗

Experimental Study of Characteristics of Micro-Hole Porous Skins for Turbulent Skin Friction Reduction

Characteristics of micro-hole porous skins for the turbulent skin friction reduction technology called the micro-blowing technique (MBT) were assessed experimentally at Mach 0.4 and blowing fractions from zero to 0.005. The objective of this study was to provide guidelines for the selection of porous plates for MBT. The hole angle, pattern, diameter, aspect ratio, and porosity were the parameters considered for this study. The additional effort to angle and stagger the holes was experimentally determined to be unwarranted in terms of skin friction benefit; therefore, these parameters were systematically eliminated from the parametric study. The impact of the remaining three parameters was evaluated by fixing two parameters at the reference values while varying the third parameter. The best hole-diameter Reynolds number was found to be around 400, with an optimum aspect ratio of about 6. The optimum porosity was not conclusively discerned because the range of porosities in the test plates considered was not great enough. However, the porosity was estimated to be about 15 percent or less.

Hwang, Danny P.↗

Sensitivity analysis of the effect of wind characteristics and turbine properties on wind turbine loads

Proper wind turbine design relies on the ability to accurately predict ultimate and fatigue loads of turbines. The load analysis process requires precise knowledge of the expected wind-inflow conditions as well as turbine structural and aerodynamic properties. However, uncertainty in most parameters is inevitable. It is therefore important to understand the impact such uncertainties have on the resulting loads. The goal of this work is to assess which input parameters have the greatest influence on turbine power, fatigue loads, and ultimate loads during normal turbine operation. An elementary effects sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most sensitive parameters. Separate case studies are performed on (1) wind-inflow conditions and (2) turbine structural and aerodynamic properties, both cases using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5 MW baseline wind turbine. The Veers model was used to generate synthetic International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) Kaimal turbulence spectrum inflow. The focus is on individual parameter sensitivity, though interactions between parameters are considered. The results of this work show that for wind-inflow conditions, turbulence in the primary wind direction and shear are the most sensitive parameters for turbine loads, which is expected. Secondary parameters of importance are identified as veer, u -direction integral length, and u components of the IEC coherence model, as well as the exponent. For the turbine properties, the most sensitive parameters are yaw misalignment and outboard lift coefficient distribution; secondary parameters of importance are inboard lift distribution, blade-twist distribution, and blade mass imbalance. This information can be used to help establish uncertainty bars around the predictions of engineering models during validation efforts, and provide insight to probabilistic design methods and site-suitability analyses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Collisional excitation of CO by H2O - An astrophysicist's guide to obtaining rate constants from coherent anti-Stokes Raman line shape data

Rate constants for excitation of CO by collisions with H2O are needed to understand recent observations of comet spectra. These collision rates are closely related to spectral line shape parameters, especially those for Raman Q-branch spectra. Because such spectra have become quite important for thermometry applications, much effort has been invested in understanding this process. Although it is not generally possible to extract state-to-state rate constants directly from the data as there are too many unknowns, if the matrix of state-to-state rates can be expressed in terms of a rate-law model which depends only on rotational quantum numbers plus a few parameters, the parameters can be determined from the data; this has been done with some success for many systems, especially those relevant to combustion processes. Although such an analysis has not yet been done for CO-H2O, this system is expected to behave similarly to N2-H2O which has been well studies; modifications of parameters for the latter system are suggested which should provide a reasonable description of rate constants for the former.

Green, Sheldon↗

Theory and Design Tools For Studies of Reactions to Abrupt Changes in Noise Exposure

Study plans, a pre-tested questionnaire, a sample design evaluation tool, a community publicity monitoring plan, and a theoretical framework have been developed to support combined social/acoustical surveys of residents' reactions to an abrupt change in environmental noise, Secondary analyses of more than 20 previous surveys provide estimates of three parameters of a study simulation model; within individual variability, between study wave variability, and between neighborhood variability in response to community noise. The simulation model predicts the precision of the results from social surveys of reactions to noise, including changes in noise. When the study simulation model analyzed the population distribution, noise exposure environments and feasible noise measurement program at a proposed noise change survey site, it was concluded that the site could not yield sufficient precise estimates of human reaction model to justify conducting a survey. Additional secondary analyses determined that noise reactions are affected by the season of the social survey.

Fields, James M.↗

Characterizing unknown systematics in large scale structure surveys

Photometric large scale structure (LSS) surveys probe the largest volumes in the Universe, but are inevitably limited by systematic uncertainties. Imperfect photometric calibration leads to biases in our measurements of the density fields of LSS tracers such as galaxies and quasars, and as a result in cosmological parameter estimation. Earlier studies have proposed using cross-correlations between different redshift slices or cross-correlations between different surveys to reduce the effects of such systematics. In this paper we develop a method to characterize unknown systematics. We demonstrate that while we do not have sufficient information to correct for unknown systematics in the data, we can obtain an estimate of their magnitude. We define a parameter to estimate contamination from unknown systematics using cross-correlations between different redshift slices and propose discarding bins in the angular power spectrum that lie outside a certain contamination tolerance level. We show that this method improves estimates of the bias using simulated data and further apply it to photometric luminous red galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey as a case study.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Scaling of low-velocity impact for symmetric composite laminates

The equations governing the problem of low-velocity impact of a simply supported rectangular midplane-symmetric laminated plate are nondimensionalized such that the problem is defined in terms of five dimensionless parameters. A parametric study using the Graeco-Latin Factorial Plan is performed. Semi-empirical formulas for maximum impact force, impact duration, and maximum back surface strains are obtained. It is found that some of the simple impact models provide the bounds for the case of impact on a finite extent plate. A one parameter model is derived for impacts of short duration.

Sankar, Bhavani V.↗

Estimating Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameters From Simulated Detector Responses With Detector Design Implications

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index alpha (sub 1), is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy E(sub k) to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗

Investigation of flowfields found in typical combustor geometries

Activities undertaken during the entire course of research are summarized. Studies were concerned with experimental and theoretical research on 2-D axisymmetric geometries under low speed nonreacting, turbulent, swirling flow conditions typical of gas turbine and ramjet combustion chambers. They included recirculation zone characterization, time-mean and turbulence simulation in swirling recirculating flow, sudden and gradual expansion flowfields, and furher complexities and parameter influences. The study included the investigation of: a complete range of swirl strengths; swirler performance; downstream contraction nozzle sizes and locations; expansion ratios; and inlet side-wall angles. Their individual and combined effects on the test section flowfield were observed, measured and characterized. Experimental methods included flow visualization (with smoke and neutrally-buoyant helium-filled soap bubbles), five-hole pitot probe time-mean velocity field measurements, and single-, double-, and triple-wire hot-wire anemometry measurements of time-mean velocities, normal and shear Reynolds sresses. Computational methods included development of the STARPIC code from the primitive-variable TEACH computer code, and its use in flowfield prediction and turbulence model development.

Lilley, D. G.↗

Estimating Cosmic Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index al is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 100 TeV, with a transition at kink energy Ek to a steeper spectral index a2>al above Ek. The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, Leonard↗

Estimating Cosmic-Ray Spectral Parameters from Simulated Detector Responses with Detector Design Implications

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index (alpha-1) is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at knee energy (E(sub k)) to a steeper spectral index alpha-2 > alpha-1 above E(sub k). The maximum likelihood procedure is developed for estimating these three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses. These estimates and their surrounding statistical uncertainty are being used to derive the requirements in energy resolution, calorimeter size, and energy response of a proposed sampling calorimeter for the Advanced Cosmic-ray Composition Experiment for the Space Station (ACCESS). This study thereby permits instrument developers to make important trade studies in design parameters as a function of the science objectives, which is particularly important for space-based detectors where physical parameters, such as dimension and weight, impose rigorous practical limits to the design envelope.

Howell, L. W.↗

Giant gravitons and the emergence of geometric limits in β-deformations of $ \mathcal{N}=4 $ SYM

We study a one parameter family of supersymmetric marginal deformations of N = 4 SYM with U(1) 3 symmetry, known as β-deformations, to understand their dual AdS × X geometry, where X is a large classical geometry in the g YM 2 N → ∞ limit. We argue that we can determine whether or not X is geometric by studying the spectrum of open strings between giant gravitons states, as represented by operators in the field theory, as we take N → ∞ in certain double scaling limits. We study the conditions under which these open strings can give rise to a large number of states with energy far below the string scale. The number-theoretic properties of β are very important. When exp(iβ) is a root of unity, the space X is an orbifold. When exp(iβ) close to a root of unity in a double scaling limit sense, X corresponds to a finite deformation of the orbifold. Lastly, if β is irrational, sporadic light states can be present.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗