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At least 1,513 records · Page 84
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating precipitation distributions at regional scales: a benchmarking framework and application to CMIP5 and 6 models

Abstract. As the resolution of global Earth system models increases, regional-scale evaluations are becoming ever more important. This study presents a framework for quantifying precipitation distributions at regional scales and applies it to evaluate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and 6 models. We employ the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report (AR6) climate reference regions over land and propose refinements to the oceanic regions based on the homogeneity of precipitation distribution characteristics. The homogeneous regions are identified as heavy-, moderate-, and light-precipitating areas by K-means clustering of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) version 6 final run product (IMERG) precipitation frequency and amount distributions. With the global domain partitioned into 62 regions, including 46 land and 16 ocean regions, we apply 10 established precipitation distribution metrics. The collection includes metrics focused on the maximum peak, lower 10th percentile, and upper 90th percentile in precipitation amount and frequency distributions; the similarity between observed and modeled frequency distributions; an unevenness measure based on cumulative amount; average total intensity on all days with precipitation; and number of precipitating days each year. We apply our framework to 25 CMIP5 and 41 CMIP6 models, as well as six observation-based products of daily precipitation. Our results indicate that many CMIP5 and 6 models substantially overestimate the observed light-precipitation amount and frequency, as well as the number of precipitating days, especially over midlatitude regions outside of some land regions in the Americas and Eurasia. Improvement from CMIP5 to 6 is shown in some regions, especially in midlatitude regions, but it is not evident globally, and over the tropics most metrics point toward degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Competitive displacement among post-Paleozoic cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans

Encrusting bryozoans provide one of the few systems in the fossil record in which ecological competition can be observed directly at local scales. The macroevolutionary history of diversity of cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans is consistent with a coupled-logistic model of clade displacement predicated on species within clades interacting competitively. The model matches observed diversity history if the model is perturbed by a mass extinction with a position and magnitude analogous to the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary event, Although it is difficult to measure all parameters in the model from fossil data, critical factors are intrinsic rates of extinction, which can be measured. Cyclostomes maintained a rather low rate of extinction, and the model solutions predict that they would lose diversity only slowly as competitively superior species of cheilostomes diversified into their environment. Thus, the microecological record of preserved competitive interactions between cyclostome and cheilostome bryozoans and the macroevolutionary record of global diversity are consistent in regard to competition as a significant influence on diversity histories of post-Paleozoic bryozoans.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
DOE OSTI2022

River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise

Future sea-level rise poses an existential threat for many river deltas, yet quantifying the effect of sea-level changes on these coastal landforms remains a challenge. Sea-level changes have been slow compared to other coastal processes during the instrumental record, such that our knowledge comes primarily from models, experiments, and the geologic record. Here we review the current state of science on river delta response to sea-level change, including models and observations from the Holocene until 2300 CE. We report on improvements in the detection and modeling of past and future regional sea-level change, including a better understanding of the underlying processes and sources of uncertainty. We also see significant improvements in morphodynamic delta models. Still, substantial uncertainties remain, notably on present and future subsidence rates in and near deltas. Observations of delta submergence and land loss due to modern sea-level rise also remain elusive, posing major challenges to model validation. There are large differences in the initiation time and subsequent delta progradation during the Holocene, likely from different sea-level and sediment supply histories. Modern deltas are larger and will face faster sea-level rise than during their Holocene growth, making them susceptible to forced transgression. Regional sea-level projections have been much improved in the past decade and now also isolate dominant sources of uncertainty, such as the Antarctic ice sheet. Vertical land motion in deltas can be the dominant source of relative sea-level change and the dominant source of uncertainty; limited observations complicate projections. River deltas globally might lose 5% (~35,000 km 2 ) of their surface area by 2100 and 50% by 2300 due to relative sea-level rise under a high-emission scenario.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Cometary atmospheres: Modeling the spatial distribution of observed neutral radicals

Progress during the second year of a program of research on the modeling of the spatial distributions of cometary radicals is discussed herein in several major areas. New scale length laws for cometary C2 and CN were determined which explain that the previously-held apparent drop of the C2/CN ratio for large heliocentric distances does not exist and that there is no systematic variation. Monte Carlo particle trajectory model (MCPTM) analysis of sunward and anti-sunward brightness profiles of cometary C2 was completed. This analysis implies a lifetime of 31,000 seconds for the C2 parent and an ejection speed for C2 of approximately 0.5 km/sec upon dissociation from the parent. A systematic reanalysis of published C3 and OH data was begun. Preliminary results find a heliocentric distance dependence for C3 scale lengths with a much larger variation than for C2 and CN. Scale lengths for OH are generally somewhat larger than currently accepted values. The MCPTM was updated to include the coma temperature. Finally, the collaborative effort with the University of Arizona programs has yielded some preliminary CCD images of Comet P/Halley.

Combi, Michael R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Kilometric radio waves generated along auroral field lines observed by ground facilities - A theoretical model

A theory of generation of radio waves observed by ground-based facilities in the frequency range 150-700 kHz is discussed. This work is a continuation of an earlier discussion (Wu et al., 1989) in which it was proposed that the trapped electrons along the auroral field lines can lead to a cyclotron instability which amplifies the whistler waves observed at ground level. The objective of the present study is to investigate the propagation effect on the wave amplification and to examine whether the proposed mechanism is indeed viable.

Ziebell, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS2015

International Observe the Moon Night: An Effective Model for Public Engagement with NASA Content

International Observe the Moon Night (InOMN) is an annual world-wide public engagement event designed with the goal of inspiring the public to want to learn more about NASAs contributions to planetary science and exploration, using the Earths Moon as an entryway, and to provide connections to do so [1,2,3]. InOMN will celebrate its 6th anniversary on September 19, 2015.Registration statistics from the past five years show an average of 500 InOMN events are held in 50 countries and 45 U.S. states per year (Figure 1), with over half of the events occurring outside the U.S. Host survey data indicate that approximately 55,000 to 75,000people participate in InOMN events each year. The consistent hosting of InOMN events across the U.S. and around the world indicates an interest by hosts in sharing lunar and planetary science with their local communities, as well as connecting with a larger international group of fellow space enthusiasts on an annual basis.

K-12-Schools↗
NASA NTRS1991

Evolutionary models of halo stars with rotation. I - Evidence for differential rotation with depth in stars

Evolutionary models of metal-poor stars are computed including the effects of rotation, and their properties are compared with observations. The models rotate slowly at the surface, in agreement with the observed upper limits on the rotation velocity at main-sequence turnoff; they also have substantial differential rotation with depth. This differential rotation preserves a sufficient amount of internal angular momentum to explain the rapid rotation of evolved horizontal-branch stars. These results hold for a wide range of angular momentum loss and transport parameter values. Differences and similarities between the surface and internal rotation of solar metallicity and metal-poor models are discussed. Rigidly rotating models are found to be incompatible with the observations once giant branch mass loss is taken into account. Horizontal-branch rotation velocity measurements as a function of color are proposed as a test of the rotation law enforced in convection zones, and their dependence on cluster age and metallicity are discussed.

Pinsonneault, Marc H.↗
NASA NTRS2022

An Advanced Open-Source Platform for Air Quality Analysis, Visualization, and Prediction

Ambient air pollution is the largest environmental health risk factor, leading to several million premature deaths globally per year. The challenge of combating poor air quality is exacerbated by growing urban populations, changing emissions, and a warming climate. While there have been many advances monitoring and modeling of atmospheric composition, reflected in the dramatic increase in archived Earth Observations, there is no single measurement or method that alone can provide an accurate depiction of the entire atmosphere. The rapidly growing collections of observational and modeling data require us to be smarter about what data to include, and how such data is used. In recent years, NASA has invested significantly in advancing the concepts for Analytics Collaborative Framework (ACF) [5] and New Observing Strategies (NOS) [4] to tackle our software infrastructure need for harmonized data management and dynamic acquisition of diverse measurements for on-demand, interactive, multivariate analysis, and access [3]. It is not enough to have a big data, standalone analytics solution; it is critical that we start integrating data from remote sensing, modeling, and in-situ networks in a harmonized manner that enables timely and data-driven decision-making for air quality management. This work presents the design and development of an Air Quality Analytics Collaborative Framework (AQ ACF), as part of NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) effort, to establish a data, machine-learning, and numerically driven platform for air quality analysis, visualization, and prediction.

Liu, Qian↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Local Supercluster as a test of cosmological models

The Local Supercluster kinematic properties (the Local Group infall toward the Virgo Cluster and galaxy density distribution about the Virgo Cluster) in various cosmological models are examined utilizing large-scale N-body (PM) simulations 500(exp 3) cells, 250(exp 3) particles, and box size of 400 h(exp -1) Mpc) and are compared to observations. Five models are investigated: (1) the standard, Cosmic Background Explorer Satellite (COBE)-normalized cold dark matter (CDM) model with omega = 1, h = 0.5, and sigma(sub 8) = 1.05; (2) the standard Hot Dark Matter (HDM) model with omega = 1, h = 0.75, and sigma(sub 8) = 1; (3) the tilted CDM model with omega = 1, h = 0.5, n = 0.7, and sigma(sub 8) = 0.5; (4) a CDM + lambda model with omega = 0.3, lambda = 0.7, h = 2/3, and sigma(sub 8) = 2/3; (5) the PBI model with omega = 0.2, h = 0.8, x = 0.1, m = -0.5, and sigma(sub 8) = 0.9. Comparison of the five models with the presently available observational measurements v(sub LG) = 85 - 305 km/s (with mean of 250 km/s), delta(n(sub g))/(n(sub g)-bar) = 1.40 + or - 0.35) suggests that an open universe with omega approximately 0.5 (with or without lambda) and sigma(sub 8) approximately 0.8 is preferred, with omega = 0.3-1.0 (with or without lambda) and sigma(sub 8) = 0.7-1.0 being the acceptable range. At variance with some previous claims based on either direct N-body or spherical nonlinear approaches, we find that a flat model with sigma(sub 8) approximately 0.7-1.0 seems to be reasonably consistent with observations. However, if one favors the low limit of v(sub LG) = 85 km/s, then an omega approximately 0.2-0.3 universe seems to provide a better fit, and flat (omega = 1) models are ruled out at approximately 95% confidence level. On the other hand, if the high limit of v(sub LG) = 350 km/s is closer to the truth, then it appears that omega approximately 0.7-0.8 is more consistent. This test is insensitive to the shape of the power spectrum, but rather sensitive to the normalization of the perturbation amplitude on the relevant scale (e.g., sigma(sub 8)) and omega. We find that neither linear nor nonlinear relations (with spherical symmetry) are good approximations for the relation between radial peculiar velocity and density perturbation, i.e., nonspherical effects and gravitational tidal field are important. The derived omega using either of the two relations is underestimated. In some cases, this error is as large as a factor of 2-4.

Cen, Renyue↗
NASA NTRS1988

Modelling of total solar irradiance variability from ground-based observations

The difficulty in correlating models of solar irradiance variations from ground-based observations with spacecraft data is examined. Methods for modeling total solar irradiance are reviewed. A photometric program is described which produces sunspot irradiance fluctuation information that is repeatable to within 10 millionths of the mean irradiance. The results from this program are compared with model irradiance fluctuations based on published sunspot and plage areas.

Chapman, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Nucleosynthetic Origin for the Southwestern Fe-rich Structure in Kepler's Supernova Remnant

Chandra X-ray observations of Kepler's supernova remnant indicate the existence of a high-speed Fe-rich ejecta structure in the southwestern region. We report strong K-shell emission from Fe-peak elements (Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni), as well as Ca, in this Fe-rich structure, implying that those elements could be produced in the inner area of the exploding white dwarf. We found Ca/Fe, Cr/Fe, Mn/Fe, and Ni/Fe mass ratios of 1.0%–4.1%, 1.0%–4.6%, 1%–11%, and 2%–30%, respectively. In order to constrain the burning regime that could produce this structure, we compared these observed mass ratios with those in 18 one-dimensional Type Ia nucleosynthesis models (including both near-M Ch and sub-M Ch explosion models). The observed mass ratios agree well with those around the middle layer of incomplete Si burning in Type Ia nucleosynthesis models with a peak temperature of ~(5.0–5.3) × 10(exp 9) K and a high metallicity, Z > 0.0225. Based on our results, we infer the necessity for some mechanism to produce protruding Fe-rich clumps dominated by incomplete Si-burning products during the explosion. We also discuss the future perspectives of X-ray observations of Fe-rich structures in other Type Ia supernova remnants.

Toshiki Sato↗
NASA NTRS1987

The large-scale peculiar velocity field in flat models of the universe

The inflationary universe scenario predicts a flat universe and both adiabatic and isocurvature primordial density perturbations with the Zel'dovich spectrum. The two simplest realizations, models dominated by hot or cold dark matter, seem to be in conflict with observations. Flat models with two components of mass density, where one of the components of mass density is smoothly distributed, are examined, and the large-scale peculiar velocity field for these models is computed. For the smooth component the authors consider relativistic particles, a relic cosmological term, and light strings. At present the observational situation is unsettled, but, in principle, the large-scale peculiar velocity field is a very powerful discriminator between these different models.

Vittorio, Nicola↗
DOE OSTI2025

CoCoMET v1.0: a unified open-source toolkit for atmospheric object tracking and analysis

Advances in performance and analysis capabilities have accelerated the development of object tracking algorithms for atmospheric research. This has resulted in a growing number of studies using Lagrangian tracking techniques to analyze the evolution of atmospheric phenomena and the underlying processes. However, the increasing complexity and variety of tracking algorithms present a steep learning curve for new users and make it difficult for existing users to compare algorithm performance. We introduce CoCoMET (Community Cloud Model Evaluation Toolkit), an open-source toolkit that addresses these issues. CoCoMET simplifies the process of running multiple tracking algorithms simultaneously and analyzing objects in both model and observational datasets by specifying parameters in a single configuration file. It standardizes input data from different sources into a consistent format and unifies the tracking output across algorithms. CoCoMET enhances the functionality of existing tracking methods by calculating additional properties such as cell growth and dissipation rates, perimeter, surface area, convexity, and irregularity. In addition, CoCoMET includes a novel method for identifying mergers and splits in 2D and 3D tracks and supports the integration of Eulerian/stationary datasets external to the tracking data for process studies. Its potential utility is demonstrated through examples of model intercomparison, model evaluation against observations, and comparisons between tracking algorithms. Designed for open-source environments, CoCoMET will continue to expand with future releases, incorporating more input data types and tracking algorithms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robustness of the Ensemble Score Filter to the Type of Assimilated Observation Networks

Recent advances in data assimilation (DA) have focused on developing more flexible approaches that can better accommodate nonlinearities in models and observations. However, it remains unclear how the performance of these advanced methods depends on the observation network characteristics. In this study, we present initial experiments with the surface quasi‐geostrophic model, in which we compare a recently developed ensemble filter using score‐based diffusion models with the standard Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF). Our results show that the analysis solutions respond differently to the number, spatial distribution, and nonlinear fraction of assimilated observations. We also find notable changes in the multiscale characteristics of the analysis errors. Given that standard DA techniques will eventually be replaced by more advanced methods, we hope this study sets the ground for future efforts to reassess the value of Earth observing systems in the context of newly emerging algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2004

Livingstone Model-Based Diagnosis of Earth Observing One Infusion Experiment

The Earth Observing One satellite, launched in November 2000, is an active earth science observation platform. This paper reports on the progress of an infusion experiment in which the Livingstone 2 Model-Based Diagnostic engine is deployed on Earth Observing One, demonstrating the capability to monitor the nominal operation of the spacecraft under command of an on-board planner, and demonstrating on-board diagnosis of spacecraft failures. Design and development of the experiment, specification and validation of diagnostic scenarios, characterization of performance results and benefits of the model- based approach are presented.

Hayden, Sandra C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Programmable Catalyst Structures via Adsorbate-Induced Adatom Assembly

The electronic structure and geometric configuration of oxide-supported metal ions are important coordination properties that can be related to catalytic activity and stability. Herein, we interrogate the coordination environment of mononuclear Pd ions supported on ceria using CO adsorption, infrared vibrational spectroscopy, and DFT modeling. We observed the 15 h continuous co-evolution of a palladium- (2167 cm -1 ) and cerium-carbonyl (2177 cm -1 ) complex by monitoring the $\nu$(CO) infrared region. The slow CO adsorption kinetics were caused by the reactive ligand exchange between an oxygen atom of the support and the CO adsorbate to yield an oxygen vacancy and adsorbed CO 2 . We hypothesize that the co-evolved cerium-carbonyl complex was formed upon CO adsorption at or adjacent to this oxygen vacancy. Our hypothesis was experimentally supported by a dramatic attenuation of the cerium carbonyl signal upon pre-adsorption of water through an apparent competitive adsorption mechanism. The attenuation was also accompanied by a 6 cm -1 redshift of the palladium carbonyl band (2161 cm -1 ) attributed to hydrogen bonding between the carbonyl and a nearby hydroxyl. Characteristic n(CO) stretch frequencies catalogued through CO adsorption onto single crystal ceria by Wöll et al.1 led us to index the cerium carbonyl to the {100} nanofacet of the polycrystalline ceria support. It follows from the observed co-evolution of the two carbonyl complexes that Pd was also adsorbed at the {100} nanofacet. Redeployment of a previously developed DFT model by Ivanova-Shor et al.2 featuring square-planar coordination of Pd2+ at the {100} nanofacet (O 4 Pd) of a Ce 21 O 42 nanoparticle model qualitatively reproduced several experimental observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1990

Numerical modeling of passive microwave O2 observations over precipitation

Radiometric observations at 118 GHz are compared to a planar-stratified numerical radiative transfer model, in order to study the microwave scattering and emission properties of precipitation cells. Agreement between observed and computed brightness perturbations is shown to be within 10 percent over the radiometrically opaque, mature regions of the cell. Transparent-channel cell top reflectivities of up to 50 percent in the convective core region and 6 percent in the anvil region are determined, using perturbed and nonscattering weighting functions. A parameterized rain cell model is used in a content analysis of 118 GHz precipitation cell spectra. The dominant 118-GHz spectral modes are found to contain useful data on the cell top altitude; they are applicable for detection of transparent anvil regions.

Gasiewski, A. J.↗