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DOE OSTI2019

Reconstructing large-scale structure with neutral hydrogen surveys

Upcoming 21-cm intensity surveys will use the hyperfine transition in emission to map out neutral hydrogen in large volumes of the universe. Unfortunately, large spatial scales are completely contaminated with spectrally smooth astrophysical foregrounds which are orders of magnitude brighter than the signal. This contamination also leaks into smaller radial and angular modes to form a foreground wedge, further limiting the usefulness of 21-cm observations for different science cases, especially cross-correlations with tracers that have wide kernels in the radial direction. Here in this paper, we investigate reconstructing these modes within a forward modeling framework. Starting with an initial density field, a suitable bias parameterization and non-linear dynamics to model the observed 21-cm field, our reconstruction proceeds by {combining} the likelihood of a forward simulation to match the observations (under given modeling error and a data noise model) {with the Gaussian prior on initial conditions and maximizing the obtained posterior}. For redshifts z=2 and 4, we are able to reconstruct 21cm field with cross correlation, r c > 0.8 on all scales for both our optimistic and pessimistic assumptions about foreground contamination and for different levels of thermal noise. The performance deteriorates slightly at z=6. The large-scale line-of-sight modes are reconstructed almost perfectly. We demonstrate how our method also provides a technique for density field reconstruction for baryon acoustic oscillations, outperforming standard methods on all scales. We also describe how our reconstructed field can provide superb clustering redshift estimation at high redshifts, where it is otherwise extremely difficult to obtain dense spectroscopic samples, as well as open up a wealth of cross-correlation opportunities with projected fields (e.g. lensing) which are restricted to modes transverse to the line of sight.

21 cm↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accurate Fe–He machine learning potential for studying He effects in BCC-Fe

Nanostructured Ferritic Alloys (NFAs) containing oxide nanoparticles are prospective advanced structural materials in future fusion reactors. Lacking fusion neutron sources with an adequate flux, modeling is critical to understand radiation damage in the NFAs, including helium effects. Machine learning interatomic potentials (MLPs) have been demonstrated to be capable of describing atomic interactions in chemically complex systems with comparable accuracy to density functional theory (DFT) but with much less computational costs. Hence, MLPs are chosen to study He bubble accumulation in chemically complex NFAs. As a preliminary step, we develop a Fe–He potential, based on ~10,000 atomic configurations. The developed MLP accurately predicts the bulk properties of BCC-Fe compared to DFT, including the lattice constant (2.832 Å), elastic constants (c 11 = 271 GPa, c 12 = 141, c 44 = 93), and phonon frequencies (maximum error < 3.5%). The MLP predicts He binding energies in He n V bubbles and He n clusters with a mean absolute error (MAE) of only ~70 meV, which is ~3 to ~5 times smaller than the MAE of binding energies estimated using empirical potentials. The MLP also accurately predicts the migration barrier of interstitial He (64 meV). Furthermore, the MLP correctly predicts the maximum number of He atoms (critical size) at which a He n V bubble (He n cluster) can kick-out a self-interstitial atom (SIA), forming a bigger He n V 2 bubble (He n V bubble). Subsequently, we use the MLP to perform molecular dynamics simulations to investigate the effect of temperature on the critical size of He n V bubbles and He n clusters. We find that the critical size decreases with increasing temperature — indicating that smaller bubbles and clusters can kick-out an SIA at higher temperatures, thereby escalating the He bubble growth. We report the current Fe–He MLP can be further developed to include all chemical interactions in NFAs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Filtered CFD-DEM Drag Model with Multiscale Markers Using an Artificial Neural Network and Nonlinear Regression

Here, the accuracy of coarse-grained Euler-Lagrangian simulations of fluidized beds heavily depends on the mesoscale drag models to account for the influences of the unresolved sub-grid structures. Traditional filtered drag models are regressed with mesoscale markers such as voidage and slip velocities. In this research, a filtered drag was regressed with both mesoscale and macro-scale markers using fine grid Computational Fluid Dynamics - Discrete Element Method (CFD-DEM) simulations. The traditional non-linear regression method was compared with machine learning regression using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) implemented in PyTorch and coupled with MFiX. The new drag showed higher accuracy than the Wen-Yu drag and another filtered drag derived from the two-fluid model. The nonlinear regression shows slightly better results than ANN regression in cases with similar R 2 values. The utilization of the gas inlet velocity as an additional macro-scale marker reduced the errors by up to 55.3% in the tested cases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: BAO and RSD measurements from the anisotropic power spectrum of the quasar sample between redshift 0.8 and 2.2

ABSTRACT We measure the clustering of quasars of the final data release (DR16) of eBOSS. The sample contains $343\, 708$ quasars between redshifts 0.8 ≤ z ≤ 2.2 over $4699\, \mathrm{deg}^2$. We calculate the Legendre multipoles (0,2,4) of the anisotropic power spectrum and perform a BAO and a Full-Shape (FS) analysis at the effective redshift zeff = 1.480. The errors include systematic errors that amount to 1/3 of the statistical error. The systematic errors comprise a modelling part studied using a blind N-body mock challenge and observational effects studied with approximate mocks to account for various types of redshift smearing and fibre collisions. For the BAO analysis, we measure the transverse comoving distance DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.60 ± 0.90 and the Hubble distance DH(zeff)/rdrag = 13.34 ± 0.60. This agrees with the configuration space analysis, and the consensus yields: DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.69 ± 0.80 and DH(zeff)/rdrag = 13.26 ± 0.55. In the FS analysis, we fit the power spectrum using a model based on Regularised Perturbation Theory, which includes redshift space distortions and the Alcock–Paczynski effect. The results are DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.68 ± 0.90 and DH(zeff)/rdrag = 13.52 ± 0.51 and we constrain the linear growth rate of structure f(zeff)σ8(zeff) = 0.476 ± 0.047. Our results agree with the configuration space analysis. The consensus analysis of the eBOSS quasar sample yields: DM(zeff)/rdrag = 30.21 ± 0.79, DH(zeff)/rdrag = 3.23 ± 0.47, and f(zeff)σ8(zeff) = 0.462 ± 0.045 and is consistent with a flat ΛCDM cosmological model using Planck results.

Neveux, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2021

Constructing angular distributions of neutrinos in core-collapse supernovae from zeroth and first moments calibrated by full Boltzmann neutrino transport

Two-moment neutrino transport methods have been widely used for developing theoretical models of core-collapse supernovae (CCSN), since they substantially reduce the computational burden inherent in the multidimensional neutrino-radiation hydrodynamical simulations. The approximation, however, comes at a price; the detailed structure of angular distribution of neutrinos is sacrificed, that is the main drawback of this approach. In this paper, we develop a novel method by which to construct angular distributions of neutrinos from the zeroth and first angular moments. In our method, the angular distribution is expressed with two quadratic functions of the neutrino angle in a piecewise fashion. We determine the best parameters in the fitting function by comparing to the neutrino data in a spherically symmetric CCSN model with full Boltzmann neutrino transport. We demonstrate the capability of our method by using our recent 2D CCSN model. In this work, we find that the essential features of the angular distributions can be well reconstructed, whereas the angular distributions of incoming neutrinos tend to have large errors that increase with flux factor ($\textit{κ}$). This issue originates from the insensitiveness of incoming neutrinos to $\textit{κ}$, that is an intrinsic limitation in moment methods. Based on the results of the demonstration, we assess the reliability of electron- neutrinos lepton number (ELN)-crossing searches with the two-moment neutrino transport. This analysis is complementary to our [L. Johns and H. Nagakura arXiv:2104.04106] that scrutinizes the limitation of crossing searches with a few moments. We find that the systematic errors of angular distributions for incoming neutrinos lead to misjudgements of the crossing at $\textit{κ}$ ≳ 0.5. This casts doubt on the results of ELN-crossing searches based on two-moment methods in some previous studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Baryon fraction from the BAO amplitude: a consistent approach to parameterizing perturbation growth

Galaxy clustering constrains the baryon fraction Omega_b/Omega_m through the amplitude of baryon acoustic oscillations and the suppression of perturbations entering the horizon before recombination. This produces a different pre-recombination distribution of baryons and dark matter. After recombination, the gravitational potential responds to both components in proportion to their mass, allowing robust measurement of the baryon fraction. This is independent of new-physics scenarios altering the recombination background (e.g. Early Dark Energy). The accuracy of such measurements does, however, depend on how baryons and CDM are modeled in the power spectrum. Previous template-based splitting relied on approximate transfer functions that neglected part of information. We present a new method that embeds an extra parameter controlling the balance between baryons and dark matter in the growth terms of the perturbation equations in the CAMB Boltzmann solver. This approach captures the baryonic suppression of CDM prior to recombination, avoids inconsistencies, and yields a clean parametrization of the baryon fraction in the linear power spectrum, separating out the simple physics of growth due to the combined matter potential. We implement this framework in an analysis pipeline using Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure with HOD-informed priors and validate it against noiseless LCDM and EDE cosmologies with DESI-like errors. The new scheme achieves comparable precision to previous splitting while reducing systematic biases, providing a more robust way to baryon-fraction measurements. In combination with BBN constraints on the baryon density and Alcock-Paczynski estimates of the matter density, these results strengthen the use of baryon fraction measurements to derive a Hubble constant from energy densities, with future DESI and Euclid data expected to deliver competitive constraints.

Crespi, Andrea [U. Waterloo (main); Waterloo U., I↗

NASA NTRS1990

Development of a knoweledge-based system for validating finite element models

The finite element modeling of an airframe structure requires knowledge of general purpose programs such as NASTRAN as well as a detailed understanding of the airframe structure. Due to the sophistication of general purpose programs such as NASTRAN, a substantial investment in time and effort is required to gain expertise in using them effectively. This paper describes the development of an expert system used in the validation of NASTRAN based finite element models. Experts in the NASTRAN based finite element modeling of airframe structures were interviewed to document, understand, and represent their knowledge and reasoning in the expert system. Finite element stress analysis and internal loads reports generated by the experts were reviewed to determine expert resolution of problem areas. As a result, areas requiring expert assistance in the modeling of the airframe structures were identified. The finite element input data is represented as a set of 'facts'. A rule based representation is used to code the expert knowledge. A hierarchical set of rules are applied. The expert system first acts as an intelligent front end to insure that all the prerequisites needed to perform the analysis are present. This includes material properties, boundary conditions, and connectivity information. The next step examines if incompatible sets of elements are connected. The succeeding step examines if the specific airframe component is modeled by the appropriate set of elements. The next and final step examines if the airframe members used are adequate to represent the anticipated state of stress. The expert system is designed to inform the user the severity of the error, the likely consequence and possible remedial action. The shell used in the development of the expert system is CLIPS. CLIPS contains a forward chaining inference engine based on the Rete algorithm. CLIPS may be implemented on most personal computers as well as mini computers and mainframes. The approach taken is general and can be implemented using commercially available expert system shells.

Munir, N. I.↗

NASA NTRS1994

NLTE model stellar atmospheres with line blanketing near the series limits

In this paper we study the influence of line-merging regions at the intermediate long-wavelength side of a continuum threshold on the computed model atmosphere structure and predicted spectrum. In order to model these regions sufficiently accurately, we have developed two concepts. First, we have extended the occupation probability formalism of Hummer and Mihalas to non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) plasmas. Second, in order to treat the very complicated opacity in the line merging region, we have generalized the concept of opacity distribution functions to treat non-LTE situations. All Rydberg states are consistently included within this framework, so that no arbitrary cutoff of high (LTE) levels is made. We have calculated several pure hydrogen models atmospheres for two effective temperatures, T(sub eff) = 20000 and 35000 K, and discussed the differences between models calculated with various treatments of the line merging. In particular, we have shown that the error in the predicted profiles of Balmer lines resulting from the neglect of line merging is typically of the order of 3-4%, while the errors in the far-UV portion of the Balmer continuum reaches 15-35%. The errors generally decrease with increasing effective temperature. At the same time, the internal accuracy of the models is shown to be about or below 0.5% for all predicted spectral features. We conclude that for interpreting current high-accuracy spectrophotometric observations models including the line merging are necessary, and that the formalism developed in this paper is capable of providing a sufficiently accurate and robust modeling technique.

Hubeny, I.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Bayesian Approach to the Joint Inversion of Gravity and Magnetic Data, with Application to the Ismenius Area of Mars

This viewgraph presentation reviews a Bayesian approach to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data with specific application to the Ismenius Area of Mars. Many inverse problems encountered in geophysics and planetary science are well known to be non-unique (i.e. inversion of gravity the density structure of a body). In hopes of reducing the non-uniqueness of solutions, there has been interest in the joint analysis of data. An example is the joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data, with the assumption that the same physical anomalies generate both the observed magnetic and gravitational anomalies. In this talk, we formulate the joint analysis of different types of data in a Bayesian framework and apply the formalism to the inference of the density and remanent magnetization structure for a local region in the Ismenius area of Mars. The Bayesian approach allows prior information or constraints in the solutions to be incorporated in the inversion, with the "best" solutions those whose forward predictions most closely match the data while remaining consistent with assumed constraints. The application of this framework to the inversion of gravity and magnetic data on Mars reveals two typical challenges - the forward predictions of the data have a linear dependence on some of the quantities of interest, and non-linear dependence on others (termed the "linear" and "non-linear" variables, respectively). For observations with Gaussian noise, a Bayesian approach to inversion for "linear" variables reduces to a linear filtering problem, with an explicitly computable "error" matrix. However, for models whose forward predictions have non-linear dependencies, inference is no longer given by such a simple linear problem, and moreover, the uncertainty in the solution is no longer completely specified by a computable "error matrix". It is therefore important to develop methods for sampling from the full Bayesian posterior to provide a complete and statistically consistent picture of model uncertainty, and what has been learned from observations. We will discuss advanced numerical techniques, including Monte Carlo Markov

data analysis↗

DOE OSTI2023

BICEP/Keck. XVII. Line-of-sight Distortion Analysis: Estimates of Gravitational Lensing, Anisotropic Cosmic Birefringence, Patchy Reionization, and Systematic Errors

We present estimates of line-of-sight distortion fields derived from the 95 and 150 GHz data taken by BICEP2, BICEP3, and the Keck Array up to the 2018 observing season, leading to cosmological constraints and a study of instrumental and astrophysical systematics. Cosmological constraints are derived from three of the distortion fields concerning gravitational lensing from large-scale structure, polarization rotation from magnetic fields or an axion-like field, and the screening effect of patchy reionization. We measure an amplitude of the lensing power spectrum ${A}_{L}^{\phi \phi }=0.95\pm 0.20$. We constrain polarization rotation, expressed as the coupling constant of a Chern–Simons electromagnetic term g aγ ≤ 2.6 × 10 -2 /H I , where H I is the inflationary Hubble parameter, and an amplitude of primordial magnetic fields smoothed over 1 Mpc B 1Mpc ≤ 6.6 nG at 95 GHz. We constrain the rms of optical depth fluctuations in a simple "crinkly surface" model of patchy reionization, finding A τ < 0.19 (2σ) for the coherence scale of L c = 100. We show that all of the distortion fields of the 95 and 150 GHz polarization maps are consistent with simulations including lensed ΛCDM, dust, and noise, with no evidence for instrumental systematics. In some cases, the EB and TB quadratic estimators presented here are more sensitive than our previous map-based null tests at identifying and rejecting spurious B-modes that might arise from instrumental effects. Finally, we verify that the standard deprojection filtering in the BICEP/Keck data processing is effective at removing temperature to polarization leakage.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the potentially transformative role of auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo in quantum chemistry: A highly accurate method for transition metals and beyond

Approximate solutions to the ab initio electronic structure problem have been a focus of theoretical and computational chemistry research for much of the past century, with the goal of predicting relevant energy differences to within “chemical accuracy” (1 kcal/mol). For small organic molecules, or in general, for weakly correlated main group chemistry, a hierarchy of single-reference wave function methods has been rigorously established, spanning perturbation theory and the coupled cluster (CC) formalism. For these systems, CC with singles, doubles, and perturbative triples is known to achieve chemical accuracy, albeit at O(N7) computational cost. In addition, a hierarchy of density functional approximations of increasing formal sophistication, known as Jacob’s ladder, has been shown to systematically reduce average errors over large datasets representing weakly correlated chemistry. However, the accuracy of such computational models is less clear in the increasingly important frontiers of chemical space including transition metals and f-block compounds, in which strong correlation can play an important role in reactivity. A stochastic method, phaseless auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (ph-AFQMC), has been shown to be capable of producing chemically accurate predictions even for challenging molecular systems beyond the main group, with relatively low O(N3 − N4) cost and near-perfect parallel efficiency. Herein, we present our perspectives on the past, present, and future of the ph-AFQMC method. We focus on its potential in transition metal quantum chemistry to be a highly accurate, systematically improvable method that can reliably probe strongly correlated systems in biology and chemical catalysis and provide reference thermochemical values (for future development of density functionals or interatomic potentials) when experiments are either noisy or absent. Finally, we discuss the present limitations of the method and where we expect near-term development to be most fruitful.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2022

A round-robin approach provides a detailed assessment of biomolecular small-angle scattering data reproducibility and yields consensus curves for benchmarking

Through an expansive international effort that involved data collection on 12 small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and four small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) instruments, 171 SAXS and 76 SANS measurements for five proteins (ribonuclease A, lysozyme, xylanase, urate oxidase and xylose isomerase) were acquired. From these data, the solvent-subtracted protein scattering profiles were shown to be reproducible, with the caveat that an additive constant adjustment was required to account for small errors in solvent subtraction. Further, the major features of the obtained consensus SAXS data over the q measurement range 0–1 Å −1 are consistent with theoretical prediction. The inherently lower statistical precision for SANS limited the reliably measured q -range to <0.5 Å −1 , but within the limits of experimental uncertainties the major features of the consensus SANS data were also consistent with prediction for all five proteins measured in H 2 O and in D 2 O. Thus, a foundation set of consensus SAS profiles has been obtained for benchmarking scattering-profile prediction from atomic coordinates. Additionally, two sets of SAXS data measured at different facilities to q > 2.2 Å −1 showed good mutual agreement, affirming that this region has interpretable features for structural modelling. SAS measurements with inline size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) proved to be generally superior for eliminating sample heterogeneity, but with unavoidable sample dilution during column elution, while batch SAS data collected at higher concentrations and for longer times provided superior statistical precision. Careful merging of data measured using inline SEC and batch modes, or low- and high-concentration data from batch measurements, was successful in eliminating small amounts of aggregate or interparticle interference from the scattering while providing improved statistical precision overall for the benchmarking data set.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

A Lagrangian dynamic subgrid-scale model turbulence

A new formulation of the dynamic subgrid-scale model is tested in which the error associated with the Germano identity is minimized over flow pathlines rather than over directions of statistical homogeneity. This procedure allows the application of the dynamic model with averaging to flows in complex geometries that do not possess homogeneous directions. The characteristic Lagrangian time scale over which the averaging is performed is chosen such that the model is purely dissipative, guaranteeing numerical stability when coupled with the Smagorinsky model. The formulation is tested successfully in forced and decaying isotropic turbulence and in fully developed and transitional channel flow. In homogeneous flows, the results are similar to those of the volume-averaged dynamic model, while in channel flow, the predictions are superior to those of the plane-averaged dynamic model. The relationship between the averaged terms in the model and vortical structures (worms) that appear in the LES is investigated. Computational overhead is kept small (about 10 percent above the CPU requirements of the volume or plane-averaged dynamic model) by using an approximate scheme to advance the Lagrangian tracking through first-order Euler time integration and linear interpolation in space.

Meneveau, C.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Binary Black Hole Late Inspiral: Simulations for Gravitational Wave Observations

Coalescing binary black hole mergers are expected to be the strongest gravitational wave sources for ground-based interferometers, such as the LIGO, VIRGO, and GEO600, as well as the spacebased interferometer LISA. Until recently it has been impossible to reliably derive the predictions of General Relativity for the final merger stage, which takes place in the strong-field regime. Recent progress in numerical relativity simulations is, however, revolutionizing our understanding of these systems. We examine here the specific case of merging equal-mass Schwarzschild black holes in detail, presenting new simulations in which the black holes start in the late inspiral stage on orbits with very low eccentricity and evolve for approximately 1200M through approximately 7 orbits before merging. We study the accuracy and consistency of our simulations and the resulting gravitational waveforms, which encompass approximately 14 cycles before merger, and highlight the importance of using frequency (rather than time) to set the physical reference when comparing models. Matching our results to PN calculations for the earlier parts of the inspiral provides a combined waveform with less than half a cycle of accumulated phase error through the entire coalescence. Using this waveform, we calculate signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) for iLIGO, adLIGO, and LISA, highlighting the contributions from the late-inspiral and merger-ringdown parts of the waveform which can now be simulated numerically. Contour plots of SNR as a function of z and M show that adLIGO can achieve SNR 2 10 for some IMBBHs out to z approximately equals 1, and that LISA can see MBBHs in the range 3 x 10(exp 4) approximately < M/Mo approximately < 10(exp 7) at SNR > 100 out to the earliest epochs of structure formation at z > 15.

Baker, John G.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Arbitrary Shape Deformation in CFD Design

Sculptor(R) is a commercially available software tool, based on an Arbitrary Shape Design (ASD), which allows the user to perform shape optimization for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) design. The developed software tool provides important advances in the state-of-the-art of automatic CFD shape deformations and optimization software. CFD is an analysis tool that is used by engineering designers to help gain a greater understanding of the fluid flow phenomena involved in the components being designed. The next step in the engineering design process is to then modify, the design to improve the components' performance. This step has traditionally been performed manually via trial and error. Two major problems that have, in the past, hindered the development of an automated CFD shape optimization are (1) inadequate shape parameterization algorithms, and (2) inadequate algorithms for CFD grid modification. The ASD that has been developed as part of the Sculptor(R) software tool is a major advancement in solving these two issues. First, the ASD allows the CFD designer to freely create his own shape parameters, thereby eliminating the restriction of only being able to use the CAD model parameters. Then, the software performs a smooth volumetric deformation, which eliminates the extremely costly process of having to remesh the grid for every shape change (which is how this process had previously been achieved). Sculptor(R) can be used to optimize shapes for aerodynamic and structural design of spacecraft, aircraft, watercraft, ducts, and other objects that affect and are affected by flows of fluids and heat. Sculptor(R) makes it possible to perform, in real time, a design change that would manually take hours or days if remeshing were needed.

Landon, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2016

Calibration and Validation of Landsat Tree Cover in the Taiga-Tundra Ecotone

Monitoring current forest characteristics in the taiga-tundra ecotone (TTE) at multiple scales is critical for understanding its vulnerability to structural changes. A 30 m spatial resolution Landsat-based tree canopy cover map has been calibrated and validated in the TTE with reference tree cover data from airborne LiDAR and high resolution spaceborne images across the full range of boreal forest tree cover. This domain-specific calibration model used estimates of forest height to determine reference forest cover that best matched Landsat estimates. The model removed the systematic under-estimation of tree canopy cover greater than 80% and indicated that Landsat estimates of tree canopy cover more closely matched canopies at least 2 m in height rather than 5 m. The validation improved estimates of uncertainty in tree canopy cover in discontinuous TTE forests for three temporal epochs (2000, 2005, and 2010) by reducing systematic errors, leading to increases in tree canopy cover uncertainty. Average pixel-level uncertainties in tree canopy cover were 29.0%, 27.1% and 31.1% for the 2000, 2005 and 2010 epochs, respectively. Maps from these calibrated data improve the uncertainty associated with Landsat tree canopy cover estimates in the discontinuous forests of the circumpolar TTE.

Montesano, Paul Mannix↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hurricane wind field representation shapes storm surge and building-scale flood hazard estimates

Coastal flood hazard estimates rely on precise hurricane wind forecasts to assess damage and risk. Here, we demonstrate that errors in hurricane wind field representation can lead to significant biases in storm surge and property-level damage estimates. Using Hurricane Ian (2022) as a case study, we compare widely used parametric, reanalysis, and hybrid wind datasets. Improved wind field accuracy reduces storm surge and damage estimate bias by up to 70\%. Our results underscore the importance of accurately predicting hurricane wind structure in hazard assessments.

Coastal Flooding↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calibration of RAFM Micromechanical Model for Creep Using Bayesian Optimization for Functional Output

A Bayesian optimization procedure is presented for calibrating a multimechanism micromechanical model for creep to experimental data of F82H steel. Reduced activation ferritic martensitic (RAFM) steels based on Fe(8–9)%Cr are the most promising candidates for some fusion reactor structures. Although there are indications that RAFM steel could be viable for fusion applications at temperatures up to 600°C, the maximum operating temperature will be determined by the creep properties of the structural material and the breeder material compatibility with the structural material. Due to the relative paucity of available creep data on F82H steel compared to other alloys such as Grade 91 steel, micromechanical models are sought for simulating creep based on relevant deformation mechanisms. As a point of departure, this work recalibrates a model form that was previously proposed for Grade 91 steel to match creep curves for F82H steel. Due to the large number of parameters (9) and cost of the nonlinear simulations, an automated approach for tuning the parameters is pursued using a recently developed Bayesian optimization for functional output (BOFO) framework (Huang et al., 2021, “Bayesian optimization of functional output in inverse problems,” Optim. Eng., 22, pp. 2553–2574). Incorporating extensions such as batch sequencing and weighted experimental load cases into BOFO, a reasonably small error between experimental and simulated creep curves at two load levels is achieved in a reasonable number of iterations. In conclusion, validation with an additional creep curve provides confidence in the fitted parameters obtained from the automated calibration procedure to describe the creep behavior of F82H steel.

42 ENGINEERING↗