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Stochastic process approximation for recursive estimation with guaranteed bound on the error covariance

An approach, is proposed for the design of approximate, fixed order, discrete time realizations of stochastic processes from the output covariance over a finite time interval, was proposed. No restrictive assumptions are imposed on the process; it can be nonstationary and lead to a high dimension realization. Classes of fixed order models are defined, having the joint covariance matrix of the combined vector of the outputs in the interval of definition greater or equal than the process covariance; (the difference matrix is nonnegative definite). The design is achieved by minimizing, in one of those classes, a measure of the approximation between the model and the process evaluated by the trace of the difference of the respective covariance matrices. Models belonging to these classes have the notable property that, under the same measurement system and estimator structure, the output estimation error covariance matrix computed on the model is an upper bound of the corresponding covariance on the real process. An application of the approach is illustrated by the modeling of random meteorological wind profiles from the statistical analysis of historical data.

Menga, G.↗

Postflight analysis of the Space Shuttle ascent air data system

An analysis of measurements recorded by the ascent air data system (AADS) located on the nose of the external tank of the Shuttle during the first flight is presented. The 30/10 deg biconic spike has five pressure ports for tracking yaw and pitch attitude, total pressure, and static pressure; comparison of AADS data with wind tunnel data allowed determination of angle of attack, angle of sideslip, Mach number, and dynamic pressure. Program goals for AADS development are reviewed, and specific design features are described. Wind tunnel test data were compared with best estimates simulations and initial flight data where possible; only wind tunnel derived Mach number predictions for time intervals 90 sec after launch are noted to deviate significantly from actual flight data.

Hillje, E. R.↗

Diagnostic analysis and spectral energetics of a blocking event in the GLAS climate model simulation

A synoptic and spectral analysis of a blocking event is presented, with attention given to the temporal evolution, maintenance, and decay of the block. The GLAS numerical climate model was used to generate a blocking event by the introduction of SST anomalies. Wavenumbers 2 and 3 became stationary around their climatological locations, and their constructive interference produced persistent blocking ridges over the west coast of North America and the other over western Europe. Time variations of the kinetic and potential energies and energy conversions during the blocking were performed. Spectrally filtered Hovmoller diagrams were developed for the winter of 1976-77, and showed that long waves were stationary over most of the interval, which featured severe weather conditions.

Chen, T.-C.↗

EGRET Diffuse Gamma Ray Maps Between 30 MeV and 10 GeV

This paper presents all-sky maps of diffuse gamma radiation in various energy ranges between 30 MeV and 10 GeV, based on data collected by the EGRET instrument on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. Although the maps can be used for a variety of applications, the immediate goal is the generation of diffuse gamma-ray maps which can be used as a diffuse background/foreground for point source analysis of the data to be obtained from new high-energy gamma-ray missions like GLAST and AGILE. To generate the diffuse gamma maps from the raw EGRET maps, the point sources in the Third EGRET Catalog were subtracted out using the appropriate point spread function for each energy range. After that, smoothing was performed to minimize the effects of photon statistical noise. A smoothing length of 1deg was used for the Galactic plane maps. For the all-sky maps, a procedure was used which resulted in a smoothing length roughly equivalent to 4deg. The result of this work is 16 maps of different energy intervals for [b]less than or equal to 20deg, and 32 all-sky maps, 16 in equatorial coordinates (J2000) and 16 in Galactic coordinates.

Cillis, A. N.↗

The structure of low-lying 1 - states in 90,94 Zr from (α,α'γ) and (p,p'γ) reactions

The low-lying dipole strength in the 90,94 Zr nuclei was investigated via (ρ,ρ'γ) at 80 MeV and (α, α', γ) at 130 MeV. The experiments, made at RCNP, used the magnetic spectrometer Grand Raiden for the scattered particles and the array CAGRA with HPGe detectors for the γ-decay. For 94 Zr these are the first data for both reactions and for 90 Zr these are the first data with (ρ,ρ'γ) and the first ones at high resolution for (α, α', γ). The comparison of the present results for the two nuclei with existing (γ, γ') data shows that both nuclear probes produce an excitation pattern different than that of the electromagnetic probes. DWBA calculations were made using form factors deduced from transition densities, based on RPA calculations, characterized by a strong neutron component at the nuclear surface. A combined analysis of the two reactions was performed for the first time to investigate the isoscalar character of the 1 - states in 90,94 Zr. The (ρ,ρ'γ) cross section was calculated using values for the isoscalar electric dipole energy-weighted sum rule (E1 ISEWSR) obtained from the (α, α', γ) data. The isoscalar strength for 90 Zr was found to exhaust 20 ± 2.5% of the EWSR in the energy range up to 12 MeV. In case of 94 Zr, a strength of 9 ± 1.1% of the EWSR was found in the range up to 8.5 MeV. Although an overall general description was obtained in the studied energy intervals, not all proton cross sections were well reproduced using the isoscalar strength from (α, α', γ). This might suggest mixing of isoscalar and isovector components and that this mixing and the degree of collectivity are not the same for all the 1 - states below the particle binding energy.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Reproductive and leaf litterfall fluxes in forest ecosystem sites globally (1950-2022)

Forest allocation of net primary productivity (NPP) to reproduction is poorly quantified globally, despite its critical role in forest regeneration and a well-supported trade-off with allocation to growth. Although field measurements of total NPP are rare, our work finds that a proxy for reproductive carbon allocation constructed from leaf (L) and reproductive (R) litterfall fluxes, R/(R+L), is strongly correlated with R/NPP, facilitating analysis across a wide range of sites where biometric estimates of NPP are not available (R² = 0.85; Hanbury-Brown et al., 2022, Ward et al., in prep). To investigate relationships between ecosystem-scale reproductive allocation (RA) and climate, soil fertility, and stand age gradients, we conducted a literature search and synthesized 824 observations of annual average leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes across forest sites globally. The zip file includes 1) a folder Data/ containing the litterfall data ("GlobalForestRA_data.csv") and metadata ("GlobalForestRA_metadata.doc") files. The data file includes geographic coordinates, long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation (1970-2000, extracted from WorldClim2.1), leaf and reproductive litterfall fluxes, sampling interval and protocols, forest characteristics (dominant leaf morphology, information pertaining to forest age and successional stage, and disturbance history) and soil properties (% sand, %silt, %clay, total phosphorus (P), nitrogen (N), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and pH) extracted from SoilGrids250 and from on-site measurements, where available. The metadata file contains information about each variable reported in the data file, including data sources, processing methods, and all references. The Data folder contains two additional files used to create Figure 1; these are described in greater detail in the README.2) R scripts GloalForestRA_analysis.r and GlobalForestRA_SI.r and a folder /Functions used to produce results, figures, and tables in the manuscript Ward et al. (in press)3) a README file describing how the data and R scripts can be used to reproduce statistical results, figures, and tables found in the manuscript. Ward et al. (in press)This repository can also be found at: https://github.com/r-ward/Global_Analysis_ForestRA.Ward, R.E., Zhang-Zheng, H. Aernethy, K., Adu-Bredu, S., Arroyo, L., Bailey, A. et al. (in press). Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally. Ecology Letters. Hanbury-Brown, A.R., Ward, R.E. & Kueppers, L.M. (2022). Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward. New Phytol., 235, 20–40.Ward et al. (2025), Forest age rivals climate to explain reproductive allocation patterns in forest ecosystems globally, in prep.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Outcome analysis of individualized vestibular rehabilitation protocols

OBJECTIVE: To determine the outcome of vestibular rehabilitation protocols in subjects with peripheral vestibular disorders compared with normal and abnormal control subjects. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study using repeated measure, matched control design. Subjects were solicited consecutively according to these criteria: vestibular disorder subjects who had abnormal results of computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) sensory organization tests (SOTs) 5 and 6 and underwent rehabilitation; vestibular disorder subjects who had abnormal results of SOTs 5 and 6 and did not undergo rehabilitation; and normal subjects (normal SOTs). SETTING: Tertiary neurotology clinic. SUBJECTS: Men and women over age 18 with chronic vestibular disorders and chief complaints of unsteadiness, imbalance, and/or motion intolerance, and normal subjects. INTERVENTIONS: Pre- and post-rehabilitation assessment included CDP, vestibular disability, and activities of daily living questionnaires. Individualized rehabilitation plans were designed and implemented to address the subject's specific complaints and functional deficits. Supervised sessions were held at weekly intervals, and self-administered programs were devised for daily home use. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: CDP composite and SOT scores, number of falls on CDP, and self-assessment questionnaire results. RESULTS: Subjects who underwent rehabilitation (Group A) showed statistically significant improvements in SOTs, overall composite score, and reduction in falls compared with abnormal (Group B) control groups. Group A's performances after rehabilitation were not significantly different from those of normal subjects (Group C) in SOTs 3 through 6, and close to normal on SOTs 1 and 2. Subjects in Group A also reported statistically significant symptomatic improvement. CONCLUSIONS: Outcome measures of vestibular protocol physical therapy confirmed objective and subjective improvement in subjects with chronic peripheral vestibular disorders. These findings support results reported by other investigators.

NASA Discipline Neuroscience↗

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term photovoltaic (PV) forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors, such as satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within long-term performance uncertainty. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 24 years of rainfall data to generate 24 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate probability of exceedance values (e.g., P50, P90, P95…). The results show that the size of the 90% confidence interval (P5–P95) can increase from –0.7% to 10.1% when interannual soiling variability and soiling rate uncertainty is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Origins of Energetic Ions in the Earth's Magnetosheath

The analysis and interpretation of the combined scientific data from the Hot Plasma Composition Experiment (HPCE) and the Charge Energy Mass (CHEM) spectrometer on the Active Mesospheric Particle Tracer Experiment (AMPTE) Charge Composition Explorer (CCE) spacecraft are discussed. These combined data sets have and will be used to survey the energetic ion environment in the Earth's magnetosheath to determine the origins and relative strengths of the energetic ion populations found there. A computer code was developed to analyze and interpret the data sets. The focus of the first year was on the determination of the contribution of leaked magnetospheric protons to the total energetic proton population. Emphasis was placed on intervals when the AMPTE spacecraft was in the plasma depletion layer because it was argued that in this region, only the leaked population contributes to the energetic ion population. Manipulation of the CHEM data and comparison of the CHEM and HPCE data over their common energy range near the magnetopause also contributed directly to a second study of that region.

Fuselter, S. A.↗

Free-air and Bouguer gravity anomalies and the Martian crustal dichotomy

Free-air and Bouguer gravity anomalies from a 50x50 field, derived from re-analysis of Viking Orbiter and Mariner 9 tracking data and using a 50x50 expansion of the current Mars topography and the GSFC degree 50 geoid as the equipotential reference surface, with the Martian crustal dichotomy are compared. The spherical harmonic topography used has zero mean elevation, and differs from the USGS maps by about 2 km. In this field the dichotomy boundary in eastern Mars lies mostly at -1 to -2 km elevation. Bouguer gravity anomalies are shown on a map of Noachian, Hesperian, and Amazonian age terrains, simplified from current geologic maps. The map is centered at 300 deg W to show the continuity of the dichotomy boundary. Contour interval is 100 mgals. Gravity and topography were compared along approximately 40 profiles oriented parallel to the dichotomy boundary topographic gradient, to determine how the geophysical character of the boundary changes along its length and what this implies for its origin and development.

Frey, Herbert↗

Design of an unmanned Martian polar exploration system

The design of an unmanned Martian polar exploration system is presented. The system elements include subsystems for transportation of material from earth to Mars, study of the Martian north pole, power generation, and communications. Early next century, three Atlas 2AS launch vehicles will be used to insert three Earth-Mars transfer vehicles, or buses, into a low-energy transfer orbit. Capture at Mars will be accomplished by aerobraking into a circular orbit. Each bus contains four landers and a communications satellite. Six of the twelve total landers will be deployed at 60 deg intervals along 80 deg N, and the remaining six landers at 5 deg intervals along 30 deg E from 65 deg N to 90 deg N by a combination of retrorockets and parachutes. The three communications satellites will be deployed at altitudes of 500 km in circular polar orbits that are 120 deg out of phase. These placements maximize the polar coverage of the science and communications subsystems. Each lander contains scientific equipment, two microrovers, power supplies, communications equipment, and a science computer. The lander scientific equipment includes a microweather station, seismometer, thermal probe, x-ray spectrometer, camera, and sounding rockets. One rover, designed for short-range (less than 2 km) excursions from the lander, includes a mass spectrometer for mineral analysis, an auger/borescope system for depth profiling, a deployable thermal probe, and charge coupled device cameras for terrain visualization/navigation. The second rover, designed for longer-range (2-5 km) excursions from the lander, includes radar sounding/mapping equipment, a seismometer, and laser ranging devices. Power for all subsystems is supplied by a combination of solar cells, Ni-H batteries, and radioisotope thermoelectric generators. Communications are sequenced from rovers, sounding rockets, and remote sensors to the lander, then to the satellites, through the Deep Space Network to and from earth.

Baldwin, Curt↗

Differences in Mechanical Properties of the Human and Monkey Tibia

A method which uses an instrument that detects the response of a long bone to a vibratory stimulus to quantify mechanical properties non-invasively was revised and validated for use in the tibia. Stored data from healthy men was reanalyzed and compared with values from non-human primates. The analysis uses the relationship K(sub b) = 48 EI/L(sup 3) where K(sub b) is the lateral stiffness of a beam with force applied midspan, E is the elastic modulus, I the geometric moment of inertia and L, the limb length. Values for stiffness (EI, Nm(sup2)), the Euler buckling load (P(sub cr) = EI (pi/L)(sup 2)), and bone sufficiency (S) which represents the axial load the bone can support, adjusted to BW (S=P(sub cr)/BW) were obtained. The interest precision of the method in relaxed men, 5.8%, and in sedated male monkeys, 4.3%, was based on repeated measures in the same subjects at 1 month intervals. The R tibias of 40 men, aged 38.6 +/- 7.3 yrs with BW 78.9 +/- 7.9 kg, showed average (+/- SD) L to be 35 +/- 2 cm, EI 222 +/- 71 Nm(sup 2), P(sub cr) 18.1 +/- 4.9 kN, and S 23.4 +/- 5.7 N. The R tibias of 24 Rhesus monkeys ranging in age from 2-12 years, BW 4.9 +/- 3 kg, showed L to be 14.7 +/- 1.9 cm, EI 6.0 +/- 4.8 Nm(sup 2), P(sub cr) 2.51 +/- 1.2 kN and S 57.3 N. These measurements indicate that the tibia of a terrestrial non-human primate, M. mulatta, has higher load carrying capacity for the level of body weights in the species than the human bone.

Arnaud, Sara B.↗

EGRET Diffuse Gamma Ray Maps Between 30 MeV and 10 GeV

This paper presents all-sky maps of diffuse gamma radiation in various energy ranges between 30 MeV and 10 GeV, based on data collected by the EGRET instrument on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory. Although the maps can be used for a variety of applications. the immediate goal is the generation of diffuse gamma-ray maps which can be used as a diffuse background/foreground for point source analysis of the data to be obtained from new high-energy gamma-ray missions like GLAST and AGILE. To generate the diffuse gamma maps from the raw EGRET maps, the point sources in the Third EGRET Catalog were subtracted out using the appropriate point spread function for each energy range. After that, smoothing was performed to minimize the effects of photon statistical noise. A smoothing length of 1 deg vas used for the Galactic plane maps. For the all-sky maps, a procedure was used which resulted in a smoothing length roughly equivalent to 4 deg. The result of this work is 16 maps of different energy intervals for absolute value of b < or equal to 20 deg, and 32 all-sky maps, 16 in equatorial coordinates (J2000) and 16 in Galactic coordinates.

Cillis, A, N.↗

Convective Heating Predictions of Apollo IV Flight Data

It has been more than 50 years since NASA engineers have attempted to design a manned space vehicle with the capability to return from beyond low Earth orbit. In this interval, our methodologies for designing the thermal protection system (TPS) to protect humans from the extremely high temperatures of re-entry have changed significantly. With these considerations in mind, we return to the Apollo IV (AS-501) flight data. This incredible data set allows us to assess the current tools and methodologies being used to design Orion MPCV. In particular, our ability to predict the aftbody separated region convective heating environments for MPCV is critical. The design uses reusable TPS in this area, whereas Apollo designers used ablative TPS which can withstand much more severe environments. This presentation will revisit the flight data, summarize the assumptions going into the analysis, present the results and draw conclusions regarding how accurately we can currently predict the heating in the aftbody separated region of a re-entry capsule.

White, Molly E.↗

Effectiveness of supervised exercise, home-based exercise, or walk advice strategies on walking performance and muscle endurance in patients with intermittent claudication (SUNFIT trial): a randomized clinical trial

Abstract Aims Supervised exercise is a guideline-recommended treatment in intermittent claudication (IC). Hospital-based supervised exercise programmes (SEPs) are underutilized, while home-based structured exercise programmes (HSEPs) have attracted interest. The results from HSEP in IC are inconsistent and may confer no benefit over walk advice (WA) and be less effective than SEP. The aim of the study was to compare the effectiveness of best medical treatment, including Nordic pole WA alone, or WA + SEP or WA + HSEP for patients with IC. Methods and results This three-armed, multicentre randomized clinical trial enrolled patients with IC; all patients received best medical treatment including walking poles and the advice of regular Nordic pole walking (WA). For HSEP and SEP, additional exercise programmes were provided. The primarily investigated hypothesis was a non-inferiority analysis of SEP vs. HSEP regarding the 6-min walk test (6MWT) maximum distance, with a pre-defined non-inferiority margin of 50 m. Supporting outcomes included muscle endurance tests and the walking impairment questionnaire. Outcomes were assessed at baseline, 3, 6, and 12 months by a blinded evaluator. Altogether 166 patients (mean age 72 years; 59% males) were randomized. In HSEP and SEP, 24 and 26% patients, respectively, were fully exercise adherent. All three groups improved pain-free walking distance over time, but there were no significant intergroup differences. The intergroup 6MWT difference between SEP and HSEP from 0 to 12 months was –11.6 m, 95% confidence interval: –36.4 to 13.0 m (i.e. within the pre-specified non-inferiority margin). Conclusion The HSEP was non-inferior to SEP in patients with IC. There were no significant differences observed between the three groups at 1 year. Registration ClinicialTrials.gov: NCT02341716.

Sandberg, Anna (ORCID:0000000258432784)↗

Longitudinal oscillation of launch vehicles

During powered flight a vehicle may develop longitudinal self-excited oscillations, so-called oscillations, of its structure. The energy supplying the vibration is tapped from the thrust by the activity of the system itself; that is, oscillation of the structure causes oscillation of the propellant system, especially of the pumps. In this way an oscillating thrust can be created that, by a feedback loop, may sustain the structural oscillation under certain circumstances. Two special features of the system proved to be essential for creation of instability. One is the effect of the inherent time interval that the thrust oscillation is lagging behind the structural oscillation. The other is the decreased of system mass caused by the exhausting of gas. The latter feature may cause an initially stable system to become unstable. To examine the stability of the system, a single mass-spring model, which is the result of a one-term Galerkin approach to the equation of motion, has been considered. The Nyquist stability criterion leads to a stability graph that shows the stability conditions in terms of the system parameter and also demonstrates the significance of time lag, feedback magnitude, and loss of mass. An important conclusion can be drawn from the analysis: large relative displacements of the pump-engine masses favor instability. This is also confirmed by flight measurements.

Glaser, R. F.↗

Minimum High Fire Temperatures Detected in AVIRIS Spectral Measurements from Brazil in 1995

In August and September of 1995 the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) was deployed to Brazil as part of the NASA Smoke Cloud Aerosol and Radiation experiment in Brazil (SCAR-B). AVIRIS measures spectra from 400 to 2500 nm at 10-nm intervals. These spectra are acquired as images with dimensions of 11 by up to 800 km with 20-m spatial resolution. Spectral images measured by AVIRIS are spectrally, radiometrically, and spatially calibrated. During the SCAR-B deployment, AVIRIS measured more than 300 million spectra of regions of Brazil. A portion of these spectra were acquired over areas of actively burning fires. Actively burning fires emit radiance in the AVIRIS spectral range as a function of temperature. This emitted radiance is expressed from the 2500-nm end of the AVIRIS spectrum to shorter wavelengths as a function of intensity and modeled by the Planck function. The objective of this research and analysis was to use spectroscopic methods to determine the minimum high temperature of the most intense fires measured in the SCAR-B AVIRIS data set. Spectra measured by AVIRIS with hot sources have been previously examined for volcanic lava.

Green, Robert O.↗

Variable Step Integration Coupled with the Method of Characteristics Solution for Water-Hammer Analysis, A Case Study

One-dimensional water-hammer modeling involves the solution of two coupled non-linear hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs). These equations result from applying the principles of conservation of mass and momentum to flow through a pipe, and usually the assumption that the speed at which pressure waves propagate through the pipe is constant. In order to solve these equations for the interested quantities (i.e. pressures and flow rates), they must first be converted to a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) by either approximating the spatial derivative terms with numerical techniques or using the Method of Characteristics (MOC). The MOC approach is ideal in that no numerical approximation errors are introduced in converting the original system of PDEs into an equivalent system of ODEs. Unfortunately this resulting system of ODEs is bound by a time step constraint so that when integrating the equations the solution can only be obtained at fixed time intervals. If the fluid system to be modeled also contains dynamic components (i.e. components that are best modeled by a system of ODEs), it may be necessary to take extremely small time steps during certain points of the model simulation in order to achieve stability and/or accuracy in the solution. Coupled together, the fixed time step constraint invoked by the MOC, and the occasional need for extremely small time steps in order to obtain stability and/or accuracy, can greatly increase simulation run times. As one solution to this problem, a method for combining variable step integration (VSI) algorithms with the MOC was developed for modeling water-hammer in systems with highly dynamic components. A case study is presented in which reverse flow through a dual-flapper check valve introduces a water-hammer event. The predicted pressure responses upstream of the check-valve are compared with test data.

Turpin, Jason B.↗