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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization: EMF37 MARKAL–NETL modeling results

Here this paper examines the MARKAL-NETL modeling results for the Energy Modeling Forum Study on Deep Decarbonization & High Electrification Scenarios for North America (EMF 37) with specific focus on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies and opportunities under different scenarios guidelines, policies, and technological advancements. The results demonstrate that CDR, such as, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture (DAC) and afforestation are key negative emission technologies in deep decarbonization scenarios in the U.S. are accounted for about 70% of annually avoided carbon dioxide emissions (CO 2 ) by 2050, or more than 2 billion tons of CO 2 (GtCO 2 ). The potential scale of CDR and its impact on the energy system depends on energy supply and demand technologies advancement and their costs, the level of end-use sectors electrification, availability and costs of CDR. Results show that the carbon prices are substantially lower if the advanced technologies available, particularly, in carbon management scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Impact of Energy Transition Initiatives on the Policy Cost of Saudi Arabia's Net-Zero Ambition

Saudi Arabia's ambitious goal to achieve a net-zero economy by 2060 offers a unique opportunity to diversify away from fossil fuels while fostering long-term economic resilience and sustainability. Crucial to this transition are energy policies that guide the Kingdom from a fossil fuel-based economy toward carbon neutrality. This study uses GCAM-KSA, a multi-sectoral integrated assessment model tailored to Saudi Arabia's economic and energy systems, to evaluate the impact of early energy transition initiatives on the policy costs of achieving the Kingdom's net-zero target. These initiatives include ongoing and proposed energy efficiency measures, renewable energy deployment, and fuel displacement targets. The study highlights that early implementation of these initiatives can significantly reduce barriers to adopting low-carbon technologies, ultimately lowering the economic burden of achieving the net-zero goal. Compared to a delayed implementation scenario, early action reduces long-term policy costs by 38–72% over the period from 2025 to 2060, driven by accelerated energy system transformation. These findings provide valuable insights into how Saudi Arabia's energy policies can mitigate economic challenges, promote economic diversification, and contribute to global emission reductions, reinforcing the Kingdom's transition to a sustainable net-zero economy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

An investigation on the impact of halidization on substituted dimethoxybenzenes

Functionalized organic molecules are emerging as charge storage materials in electrochemical technologies as the breadth and diversity of the organic design space offers the possibility of purpose-built materials with property sets optimized for a particular application. First developed as overcharge protection materials in lithium-ion batteries, substituted dialkoxybenzenes represent a potentially promising molecular platform for advancing soluble charge storage materials. In this study, we systematically substitute a series of halide groups at the 2- and 5-positions of the 1,4-dimethoxybenzene core, investigate the impact the halide groups have on molecular properties using electrochemical and spectroscopy methods, and compare these results to those of 2,5-dimethyl-1,4-dimethoxybenzene (25DDB), a previously reported derivative. In general, we observe that introduction of heavy halogen atoms leads to decreased gravimetric capacity as compared to 25DDB, but concomitantly improves solubility and redox potentials. As the halide functional group increases in size, the active material becomes less stable in its oxidized state as evinced by both cyclic voltammetry and bulk electrolysis cycling. None of the halogenated species are as stable as 25DDB indicating that these materials may be better suited for applications with more rapid cycling conditions (e.g., redox shuttling). More broadly, these results may serve as a useful data set for computational methods for materials discovery and optimization.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Do Electricity Pricing Programs Impact the Selection of Energy Efficiency Measures? - A Case Study with U.S. Medium Office Buildings

Building owners usually select energy efficiency measures (EEMs) by referring to return on investment (ROI). Current studies tend to apply static energy price to estimate ROI. However, more and more buildings are adopting dynamic electricity pricing programs. To understand how electricity pricing programs impact the selection of EEMs, this paper presents an analysis of the ROIs of EEMs under different pricing programs using U.S. medium office buildings as an example. Eight EEMs in four typical cities are selected as case studies. Considering five electricity pricing programs scenarios (one static program and four dynamic programs), EEMs are selected based on their ROIs. The main findings are: (1) The ROIs of EEMs change under different pricing programs. (2) In Honolulu, Buffalo, and Denver, replacing interior fixtures with higher-efficiency fixtures has a significantly higher ROI than the rest EEMs under all five pricing programs. However, the ROI of this EEM in Honolulu ranges from 28% to 47% for different pricing programs. (3) Similarly, in Fairbanks, replace heating coil with higher-efficiency coil produce higher ROI than the rest under all five pricing programs. (4) For other EEMs, their ROI rankings vary according to electricity pricing programs.

demand response↗
DOE OSTI2020

Vertical meteorological patterns and their impact on the energy demand of tall buildings

In accordance with the developing economy and growing population, an increasing number of tall buildings have been constructed over the last 20 years. In 2017, there were 144 new buildings worldwide that were 200 m or greater in height; 50% of these buildings were in China. Due to the vertical gradient impact of meteorological parameters, the energy performance of tall buildings differs from that of general buildings. Few studies exist on vertical meteorological changes using measured data at different heights. Most studies on dynamic energy simulation simulate meteorological parameters using models. This study explores vertical meteorological patterns using hourly dry-bulb temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed data from 2007 to 2017 for a 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing. The temperature decreased significantly with increasing altitude (~0.9 °C per 100 m), while the daily temperature difference decreased with increasing altitude. The absolute humidity did not change significantly with height. The wind speed increased with altitude at approximately 2 m/s per 100 m. The building simulation showed that the annual heating load at a height of 320 m increased by 85% from that at 8 m; the annual cooling load decreased by 20%. Such significant differences in thermal loads for 300-m-tall buildings confirm the need to consider vertical meteorological differences in building performance simulations for tall buildings. A greater number of measurement points at different heights improve the simulation accuracy. Finally, guidance on selecting the heights for vertical metrological measurements is provided based on the influences of building thermal loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of refrigerant undercharge faults on building indoor conditions and HVAC system operation in residential Buildings: A simulation study

This study investigates the impact of refrigerant undercharge on indoor temperature and HVAC system performance in residential buildings. Simulation models for typical residential buildings in Orlando, FL and Indianapolis, IN were developed using the ResStock database. A refrigerant undercharge fault model was then applied to the simulations with varying levels of fault intensity. The paper offers an extensive analysis, revealing that variations in supply air temperature, equipment runtime, and cooling energy consumption due to the level of refrigerant undercharge faults are notably significant on a summer representative day. Similarly, on a winter representative day, changes in supply air temperature and runtime are significant as well as changes in supplemental heat energy consumption. We find that occupants may remain oblivious to these faults during the cooling season, particularly when the HVAC system is oversized; in that case, supply air temperature data could help detect a fault. Another challenge is that during the heating season, when the supplemental heater operates, it is difficult to identify a refrigerant undercharge fault using only indoor and supply air temperature data. Finally, this study finds that supply air temperature, equipment runtime, and supplemental heater energy consumption data can help in detecting refrigerant undercharge faults.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impact of Off-Design CHP Performance on the Optimal Sizing and Dispatch on Hybrid Renewable-CHP Distributed Energy Resources

The maturation of distributed energy resources (DER) has prompted the exploration of their deployment in commercial building applications due to their potential to supply energy at lower costs and emissions rates compared to centralized generation. While several software tools exist for evaluating the techno-economic potential of integrated renewable energy and combined heat and power (CHP) systems for distributed generation applications, many suffer from poor accuracy in capturing off-design (part load and changes in ambient air temperature and pressure) performance characteristics of microturbines, combustion turbines, or internal combustion engines. Thus, this paper presents a methodology for integrating these off-design characteristics in the mixed-integer linear program within REopt, a hybrid DER screening tool. The economic impact of the CHP off-design performance is observed through several application studies of various hybrid system configurations in different climates. Each study indicates how CHP off-design performance influences optimal sizing and dispatch decisions and therefore overall system economic value. We observe through case studies that modeling without the off-design effects, depending on the CHP prime mover and site, can result in Net Present Value predictions of hybrid systems that can be overoptimistic in frequently hot climates (up to 52%), too conservative in frequently cold climates (up to 11%), or unaffected (+/-1%) in temperate climates. Cases also highlight several advantages of hybrid systems relative to non-hybrid systems such as total economic value and the systems' ability to mitigate potentially negative consequences attributed to off-design performance.

ambient de-rate↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of heating and cooling loads on battery energy storage system sizing in extreme cold climates

Efficient operation of battery energy storage systems requires that battery temperature remains within a specific range. Current techno-economic models neglect the parasitic loads heating and cooling operations have on these devices, assuming they operate at constant temperature. In this work, these effects are investigated considering the optimal sizing of battery energy storage systems when deployed in cold environments. Here, a peak shaving application is presented as a linear programming problem which is then formulated in the PYOMO optimization programming language. The building energy simulation software EnergyPlus is used to model the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning load of the battery energy storage system enclosure. Case studies are conducted for eight locations in the United States considering a nickel manganese cobalt oxide lithium ion battery type and whether the power conversion system is inside or outside the enclosure. The results show an increase of 42% to 300% in energy capacity size, 43% to 217% in power rating, and 43% to 296% increase in capital cost dependent on location. This analysis shows that the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning load can have a large impact on the optimal sizes and cost of a battery energy storage system and merit consideration in techno-economic studies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

The prospective impacts of 2019 state energy policies on the U.S. electricity system

Over the past several years state energy policies have been evolving rapidly, and are more frequently including higher targets, including 100% clean energy targets. This study assesses the aggregate impacts of state clean energy standards and emissions policies on national electricity generation, power sector carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, and electricity prices and system costs. To do so, we apply the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a detailed electric sector capacity expansion model, to evaluate scenarios with and without state policies and using a range of renewable energy technology cost projections. Across the scenarios analyzed, we find that the state policies drive 1.9%–10.7% of total nationwide clean energy and reduce cumulative power sector CO 2 emissions by 2.6%–5.4% over the 2020–2050 study period. This incremental generation is predominantly, but not exclusively, from renewable energy technologies. In most cases, the state policies result in increases to electricity prices and electricity system costs, and policy costs are sensitive to the future cost of clean energy technologies. Across all scenarios, the levelized cost of incremental policy-driven clean energy generation is estimated to be $17–38/MWh and the average cost of CO 2 abatement from the state-level policies is estimated to be $29–74/metric ton.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The impacts of COVID-19 on clean energy labor markets: Evidence from multifaceted analysis of public health interventions and COVID-health factors

COVID-19 pandemic has affected clean energy labor market. Using real-time job vacancy data, this study analyzes the impacts of the pandemic on the U.S. clean energy labor market in 2020, including biomass, energy efficiency (EE), electric vehicle (EV), power/microgrid, solar, and wind industries. This study identifies how COVID-health factors and public health interventions influence clean energy job availability during the early COVID pandemic. Overall, California had the most energy jobs and experienced a significant decrease in April 2020. EV and solar had the highest percentages of job vacancies during the pandemic in general. Still, lockdowns had the most severe influence on EE and wind jobs. Stay-at-home orders negatively affected clean energy job vacancies in biomass, EV, power/microgrid, and wind. Social-gathering restrictions, however, did not have much influence. Increased COVID tests at the state level had the strongest and most positive influence on clean energy job postings, indicating the importance of a state's ability to manage public health infrastructure or crisis issues. COVID hospitalizations negatively influenced the job vacancies in biomass and wind but did not affect the other four sectors; conversely, as COVID death numbers increased, the number of jobs in biomass, EV, power grid, solar, and wind decreased, but not in EE jobs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lockdown impacts on residential electricity demand in India: A data-driven and non-intrusive load monitoring study using Gaussian mixture models

This study evaluates the effect of complete nationwide lockdown in 2020 on residential electricity demand across 13 Indian cities and the role of digitalisation using a public smart meter dataset. We undertake a data-driven approach to explore the energy impacts of work-from-home norms across five dwelling typologies. Our methodology includes climate correction, dimensionality reduction and machine learning-based clustering using Gaussian Mixture Models of daily load curves. Results show that during the lockdown, maximum daily peak demand increased by 150-200% as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels for one room-units (RM1), one bedroom-units (BR1) and two bedroom-units (BR2) which are typical for low- and middle-income families. While the upper-middle- and higher-income dwelling units (i.e., three (3BR) and more-than-three bedroom-units (M3BR)) saw night-time demand rise by almost 44% in 2020, as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. Our results also showed that new peak demand emerged for the lockdown period for RM1, BR1 and BR2 dwelling typologies. We found that the lack of supporting socioeconomic and climatic data can restrict a comprehensive analysis of demand shocks using similar public datasets, which informed policy implications for India's digitalisation. We further emphasised improving the data quality and reliability for effective data-centric policymaking.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the impact of operating temperature on cracking in battery electrodes, using super-resolution of microscopy images and stereology

There are numerous factors that can have an impact on the degradation behavior of batteries, such as the number of recharge cycles or the charge rate. Here, we investigate the influence of operating temperature on the structural degradation of the microstructure in lithium-ion positive electrodes. For that purpose, the microstructure is characterized for cathodes which have been cycled for 200 cycles under 6C (10-minute) charging at different operating temperatures, namely, 20°C, 30°C, 40°C, and 50°C. For each operating condition scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images of cross-sectioned Li x Ni 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC532) electrodes have been analyzed, to determine structural descriptors such as global particle porosity, crack size/length/width distribution, and porosity and specific surface area distribution of individual particles. Additionally, a stereological method has been deployed to investigate the local particle porosity as a function of distance to the particle center. Results show that particle porosity increases with increasing cycling temperature. Particle porosity is greatest at the particle center and decreases along the particle radius to the exterior. Particle surface area is similar across the four cycling-temperature aging conditions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unique impacts of strong and westward-extended western Pacific subtropical high on ozone pollution over eastern China

As a subtropical anticyclonic high-pressure system that typically forms over the northwestern Pacific Ocean in summer, the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) affects meteorological conditions and ozone pollution in China. The relationship between maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O 3 ) concentrations and the extremely strong and westward-extended WPSH occurred in 2022 is investigated using observations, reanalysis data and GEOS-Chem model simulations. The intensity of WPSH has a significant positive correlation with MDA8 O3 over southern China during July-August in 2022, with a correlation coefficient of +0.44, but the correlation is negative (–0.40) in northern China. During the strong WPSH days, MDA8 O 3 increased by 16.5µgm -3 (16.4% relative to July-August average) over southern China and decreased by 19.0µgm -3 (14.5%) in northern China compared to the weak WPSH days. The unique dipole pattern in the relationship between ozone levels and the WPSH in 2022 exhibited a contrast to that during 2015–2021. The difference is primarily due to the extremely strong WPSH intensity and its unusual westward expansion in 2022. In this case, an anomalous anticyclone at 500 hPa dominates over southern China, which creates conditions conducive for ozone formation and accumulation. The anticyclone weakened horizontal winds and reduced the dispersion of ozone, alongside a high temperature and low relative humidity, which favored the chemical production of ozone. In contrast, abnormal northerly winds enhanced ozone diffusion in northern China and the low temperature reduced ozone chemical production. Here, this study reveals the mechanism for the significant impact of strong and westward-extended WPSH on ozone concentrations over China, emphasizing the role of the WPSH location in modulating meteorology and ozone levels.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling framework for evaluating the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on hydrologic exchange fluxes and residence time for a large-scale river section over a long-term period

Quantifying hydrologic exchange fluxes (HEF) at the river and subsurface interface and their residence times (RT) in subsurface are important for managing the water quality and ecosystem health in dynamic river corridor systems. In this study, a modeling framework is developed for coupling the three-dimensional (3D) multi-phase surface, subsurface flow transport, and numerical tracer model for RT in a large-scale river section over a long period. The framework is utilized to evaluate the impacts of hydrodynamic pressure on HEFs and RT for a 30 km section of the Columbia River in Washington State over a three-year period. Based on comparisons between model simulations with and without considering hydrodynamic pressure, we found that hydrodynamic pressure increases the net HEFs by 7% with river gaining water from the subsurface domain, and leads to slight reduction of RT.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the predictive impact of factor fixing with an adaptive uncertainty-based approach .

Despite widespread use of factor fixing in environmental modeling, its effect on model predictions has received little attention and is instead commonly presumed to be negligible. We propose a proof-of-concept adaptive method for systematically investigating the impact of factor fixing. The method uses Global Sensitivity Analysis methods to identify groups of sensitive parameters, then quantifies which groups can be safely fixed at nominal values without exceeding a maximum acceptable error, demonstrated using the 21-dimensional Sobol’ G-function. Furthermore, three error measures are considered for quantities of interest, namely Relative Mean Absolute Error, Pearson Product-Moment Correlation and Relative Variance. Results demonstrate that factor fixing may cause large errors in the model results unexpectedly, when preliminary analysis suggests otherwise, and that the default value selected affects the number of factors to fix. To improve the applicability and methodological development of factor fixing, a new research agenda encompassing five opportunities is discussed for further attention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling the impact of smoke from prescribed fire on road visibility

Prescribed fires are planned to achieve conservation and fuel reduction objectives while minimizing smoke ground concentration to limit health impacts and road visibility impairment. Prescribed burns cannot indeed be conducted if those hazards are not within predefined limits. This paper proposes a new framework to evaluate road visibility that overcomes the limitation of the state of the art model, VSMOKE. The framework leverages the fast-running framework QUIC-Fire/QUIC-SMOKE to capture fire and smoke dynamics, and the timing and duration of hazardous conditions on the road network close to the burn unit (within 50–100 km). The paper presents parametric study using a real burn plot at Fort Stewart (GA, USA), under hypothetical wind conditions to understand the interplay between buoyancy and smoke dilution. Here, results showed that faster winds caused fire escape while slower winds did not achieve a complete burn. Furthermore, faster winds featured brief road visibility reduction below braking distance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling the impact of GIC neutral blocking devices on distance protection relay operations for transmission lines

Geomagnetic Induced Current (GIC) blocking devices typically include a capacitor on the neutral grounding path of wye-configured transformers. This type of GIC blocking device was designed as an effective countermeasure to prevent possible damages caused on the power grid by geomagnetic storms, and by the slow-varying component of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP). The insertion of a capacitor in the transformer neutral impedes the establishment of GICs in lines terminated with wye-connected transformer windings. With the presence of a capacitively grounded neutral, however, it becomes important to evaluate that no adverse effects are introduced in the general grid operations. In this context, this study investigates the impact of GIC neutral blocking devices on the functionality of distance protection relays for different values of transformer neutral blocking capacitors, and at different transmission line voltages. This study was conducted with a real-time simulation platform, and the simulations were performed by introducing a phase-to-ground fault at different line locations, and by measuring the apparent impedance at the protection relay location. Finally, the results indicated that, for typical values of capacitance considered for GIC neutral blocking devices, the distance protection relay model operates properly, without requiring a modification of the relay settings.

42 ENGINEERING↗