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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

Alterations in soil pH emerge as a key driver of the impact of global change on soil microbial nitrogen cycling: Evidence from a global meta-analysis

Soil nitrogen (N) cycling is critical to the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems. However, the impact of global change factors (GCFs) on the microbial mediators of N cycling pathways has yet to be synthesized, and it also remains unclear whether the response of the abundance of N-cycling genes can predict changes in their corresponding processes. We synthesized 8322 paired observations of soil microorganisms related to N cycling from field experiments in which GCFs (climate change and nutrient addition) were manipulated. We found that the abundance of soil microbes and most N-cycling genes were resistant to elevated CO 2 , experimental warming and water addition/reduction; however, N addition and the combination of N addition with other GCFs significantly increased the abundance of ammonia oxidizer bacteria (amoA-AOB). The results indicated that in steady-state (natural) conditions, the main factors driving the global abundance of soil bacteria, archaea and N-cycling genes varied in terms of the contributions of climatic and edaphic factors. However, upon manipulation of GCFs, the induced change in soil pH was the most essential factor associated with changes in the abundance of soil microbes and N-cycling genes. Notably, the changes in ammonia-oxidizing archaea (amoA-AOA) and amoA-AOB genes, in addition to genes involved in denitrification (nirS and nirK), were significantly correlated with the rates of their corresponding processes, but GCF-induced shifts in the potential nitrification rate (PNR) were explained well by changes in the abundance of the amoA-AOB gene under GCFs. In conclusion, our study highlights how ongoing GCFs impact the abundance of soil microbes and N-cycling genes, which might have a profound impact on terrestrial N cycling. Our field-based results provide new insights into the drivers of the abundance of soil microbes and N-cycling genes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impact of Workplace and Other Convenient Vehicle Charging

This work uses market analysis and simulation to explore the potential impact of workplace and similarly convenient away-from-home charging infrastructure (AFHCI) in reducing US light duty vehicle (LDV) petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. The ParaChoice model simulates the evolution of LDV sales, fuel use, and emissions through 2050, considering consumer responses to different options of electric range extension made available through AFHCI, fraction of the population with access, and delay in infrastructure implementation. Results indicate that providing a greater fraction of the population access to level 1 AFHCI for a full workday may provide more benefit than providing level 2 charging to a lesser fraction. This result holds even considering the fraction of the population without at-home charging. Moreover, delays in infrastructure implementation have no substantial drawbacks for long term petroleum use reduction and EV adoption, though delays will impact short term gains.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Impact of Spatial Scales on the Intercomparison of Climate Scenarios

Scenario analysis has been widely applied in climate science to understand the impact of climate change on the future human environment, but intercomparison and similarity analysis of different climate scenarios based on multiple simulation runs remain challenging. Although spatial heterogeneity plays a key role in modeling climate and human systems, little research has been performed to understand the impact of spatial variations and scales on similarity analysis of climate scenarios. To address this issue, the authors developed a geovisual analytics framework that lets users perform similarity analysis of climate scenarios from the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) using a hierarchical clustering approach.

Luo, Wei↗

Utility-Scale Operational Consequences for Solar Grid Services

This report delves into the critical aspects of grid services provided by solar inverter-based resources (IBRs), with an emphasis on the evolving landscape of microgrids, virtual power plants (VPPs), aggregators, and distributed energy resource management systems (DERMS). As the energy sector undergoes a transformative shift towards more decentralized and resilient grid architectures, understanding the multifaceted risks associated with these technologies becomes paramount. The report categorizes these risks into organizational, technical, and procedural domains, providing a thorough risk assessment framework that stakeholders can utilize to anticipate and mitigate potential issues. In addressing the increasing complexity of grid interconnections, the report highlights the importance of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). By embedding engineering controls and cybersecurity measures into the early stages of system design, this approach aims to fortify grid infrastructure against emerging cyber threats. The analysis includes an exploration of best practices and strategies for integrating CIE principles to enhance grid security and resilience. To provide practical insights, the report conducts a detailed consequence analysis of various grid services and cyber mitigations that can be applied through the interconnection process. This analysis evaluates the potential impacts of different failure modes and vulnerabilities, offering a clear understanding of the consequences that could arise from disruptions within the energy grid. The findings are further enriched by a series of case studies that illustrate real-world scenarios and lessons learned from past incidents. Through this comprehensive examination of grid services and their criticality, the report aims to prepare industry professionals with the knowledge and tools necessary to navigate the complexities of modern energy systems. By providing a comprehensive approach that includes risk assessment, cybersecurity, and consequence analysis, solar stakeholders can more effectively guarantee the reliability, efficiency, and security of the energy grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Chattanooga Electric Power Board Case Study Distribution Automation

In 2009, the U.S. Department of Energy under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) awarded a grant to the Chattanooga, Tennessee, Electric Power Board (EPB) as part of the Smart Grid Investment Grant Program. The grant had the objective “to accelerate the transformation of the nation’s electric grid by deploying smart grid technologies.” This funding award enabled EPB to expedite the original smart grid implementation schedule from an estimated 10-12 years to 2.5 years. With this funding, EPB invested heavily in distribution automation technologies including installing over 1,200 automated circuit switches and sensors on 171 circuits. For utilities considering a commitment to distribution automation, there are underlying questions such as the following: “What is the value?” and “What are the costs?” This case study attempts to answer these questions. The primary benefit of distribution automation is increased reliability or reduced power outage duration and frequency. Power outages directly impact customer economics by interfering with business functions. In the past, this economic driver has been difficult to effectively evaluate. However, as this case study demonstrates, tools and analysis techniques are now available. In this case study, the impact on customer costs associated with power outages before and after the implementation of distribution automation are compared. Two example evaluations are performed to demonstrate the benefits: 1) a savings baseline for customers under normal operations1 and 2) customer savings for a single severe weather event. Cost calculations for customer power outages are performed using the US Department of Energy (DOE) Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) calculator2. This tool uses standard metrics associated with outages and the customers to calculate cost impact. The analysis shows that EPB customers have seen significant reliability improvements from the implementation of distribution automation. Under normal operations, the investment in distribution automation has enabled a 43.5% reduction in annual outage minutes since 2012. This has led to an estimated total savings of $26.8 million per year. Examining a single severe weather event3, the distribution automation was able to restore power to 40,579 (nearly 56%) customers within 1–2 seconds and reduce outage minutes by 29.0%. This saved customers an estimated $23.2 million over the course of the storm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Comparison of Artemis 2 and Artemis 5 Model Outcomes Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. This presentation will seek to compare IMPACT’s computational results upon potential complex space medical conditions (e.g., sprain/strain back or sleep disturbance) using IMPACT’s risk metrics and the associated optimized medical sets/kits between two Artemis missions: single segment Artemis 2 and multi-segmented Artemis 5. OVERVIEW By identifying potential medical conditions in space using input criteria such as crew quantity and composition, certain crew physical characteristics, mission duration and mission activities, IMPACT can produce analyses on the type of medical resources and capabilities needed to produce an optimized medical set/kit to address those medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. IMPACT’s risk metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL) – a measure of crew mortality due to medical conditions in space, return to definitive care (RTDC) – the need to perform crew evacuation, and task time lost (TTL) – a measure of the inability to perform activities due to crew disability. These risk metrics are applied to every medical condition identified by IMPACT’s computation analyses for every segment of the mission. Medical sets/kits are optimized to address these medical conditions but must fit within the stated Artemis Design Reference Mission (DRM) request for mass and volume physical size constraints. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION Using two Artemis missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 5, IMPACT will provide the analyses for comparison of medical set/kit contents based upon mass and/or volume requirements and identify the at-risk medical conditions within both missions. This paper serves as an initial exploration of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk calculations between two crewed Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

probabilistic risk assessment↗

Extension of the ADAPT Framework for Multiple Simulators

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) uses fault tree/event tree analysis to evaluate the environmental impacts of nuclear power plants due to internal or external initiating events. In a fault tree, basic failure events are assembled using primarily And/Or logic to determine the combinations of failures that lead to failure of the system as a whole. An event tree is forward-facing, and begins with a single initiating event. From there the analysis considers what event may occur next, and branches out among the possible configurations of occurrence and non-occurrence of that event. This branching continues until end states are reached. End states may include a safe and stable configuration of the plant, or any number of differing failure states. Both fault and event trees require basic event probabilities as inputs to provide insight on the likelihood of different outcomes. PRA has been applied to nuclear power plants as an analysis tool since the 1975 Reactor Safety Study. In a traditional PRA, the order of events is prescribed by the analyst and each event is typically a binary aleatory uncertainty: occurrence or non-occurrence. Discrete dynamic event tree (DDET) analysis eliminates this subjectivity in ordering of events by using the output of a dynamic system model (simulator) to inform the branching. Branching conditions are triggered by the existence of a relevant plant state in the code, and therefore only occur as physically appropriate. The DDET approach also allows consideration of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties on a phenomenologically and stochastically consistent platform. One limitation of the DDET driver codes developed to date (namely ADAPT, ADS, and MCDET ) is that the tree is driven by a single simulator. The goal of this work is a general multi-simulator driver. This limits the parameter space that may be explored in a single DDET to that which may be covered by a single simulator. In this work, the Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees (ADAPT) code is extended to support multiple arbitrary simulators. This capability will increase the depth and breadth of phenomena that may be analyzed in a single DDET. For example, a large-scale system code may pass the analysis to a more detailed code if certain conditions are met, in order to capture relevant phenomena that would be lost if only the system code were to be used. In addition, the time required to cover a given uncertainty space may be reduced by dynamically identifying and running only the situations that are appropriate given the plant conditions in each simulator. The use of multiple simulators is expected to further reduce subjectivity in PRA by enabling high fidelity modeling of reality. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Techno-economic-environmental impacts of industrial energy assessment: Sustainable industrial motor systems of small and medium-sized enterprises

Energy assessments can provide an effective way of identifying and implementing energy efficiency measures to save energy costs and avoid emissions throughout manufacturing facilities. Consequently, it generates significant economic and environmental benefits to localities, states, and the nation. Quantifying these benefits requires a systematic techno-economic-environmental framework for capturing the interactions. This article employs methodologies to improve the energy efficiency of small and medium-size industries through their sustainable industrial motor systems. Motor systems offer large opportunities to enhance energy efficiency through adopting advanced technologies and better-informed operations. Case studies presented illuminate the potential savings and impacts from implementing sustainable motor systems and the importance of energy assessments. Here, the integrated macro-economic analysis quantifies the regional sustainability impacts of implementing the industrial energy efficiency offered by an energy auditing program in Ohio over a ten-year period. Results show that implementing all the center’s motor recommendations have directly saved $\$702$ M in energy costs, avoided 2.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, and created 3,445 jobs, resulting in a total annual economic impact of $\$788$ M stemming from direct, indirect, and induced regional economic impacts. It provides policy implications for encouraging sustainable industrial motor systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Impact of cross-section uncertainties on supernova neutrino spectral parameter fitting in the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment

A primary goal of the upcoming Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is to measure the 𝒪⁡(10) MeV neutrinos produced by a Galactic core-collapse supernova if one should occur during the lifetime of the experiment. The liquid-argon-based detectors planned for DUNE are expected to be uniquely sensitive to the 𝜈 𝑒 component of the supernova flux, enabling a wide variety of physics and astrophysics measurements. A key requirement for a correct interpretation of these measurements is a good understanding of the energy-dependent total cross section 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) for charged-current 𝜈 𝑒 absorption on argon. In the context of a simulated extraction of supernova 𝜈 𝑒 spectral parameters from a toy analysis, we investigate the impact of 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) modeling uncertainties on DUNE’s supernova neutrino physics sensitivity for the first time. We find that the currently large theoretical uncertainties on 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) must be substantially reduced before the 𝜈𝑒 flux parameters can be extracted reliably; in the absence of external constraints, a measurement of the integrated neutrino luminosity with less than 10% bias with DUNE requires 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ) to be known to about 5%. The neutrino spectral shape parameters can be known to better than 10% for a 20% uncertainty on the cross-section scale, although they will be sensitive to uncertainties on the shape of 𝜎⁡(𝐸 𝜈 ). A direct measurement of low-energy 𝜈𝑒-argon scattering would be invaluable for improving the theoretical precision to the needed level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Comparison of Commonly-Used Microwave Radiative Transfer Models for Snow Remote Sensing

This paper reviews four commonly-used microwave radiative transfer models that take different electromagnetic approaches to simulate snow brightness temperature (T(sub B)): the Dense Media Radiative Transfer - Multi-Layer model (DMRT-ML), the Dense Media Radiative Transfer - Quasi-Crystalline Approximation Mie scattering of Sticky spheres (DMRT-QMS), the Helsinki University of Technology n-Layers model (HUT-nlayers) and the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS). Using the same extensively measured physical snowpack properties, we compared the simulated T(sub B) at 11, 19 and 37 GHz from these four models. The analysis focuses on the impact of using different types of measured snow microstructure metrics in the simulations. In addition to density, snow microstructure is defined for each snow layer by grain optical diameter (Do) and stickiness for DMRT-ML and DMRT-QMS, mean grain geometrical maximum extent (D(sub max)) for HUT n-layers and the exponential correlation length for MEMLS. These metrics were derived from either in-situ measurements of snow specific surface area (SSA) or macrophotos of grain sizes (D(sub max)), assuming non-sticky spheres for the DMRT models. Simulated T(sub B) sensitivity analysis using the same inputs shows relatively consistent T(sub B) behavior as a function of Do and density variations for the vertical polarization (maximum deviation of 18 K and 27 K, respectively), while some divergences appear in simulated variations for the polarization ratio (PR). Comparisons with ground based radiometric measurements show that the simulations based on snow SSA measurements have to be scaled with a model-specific factor of Do in order to minimize the root mean square error (RMSE) between measured and simulated T(sub B). Results using in-situ grain size measurements (SSA or D(sub max), depending on the model) give a mean T(sub B) RMSE (19 and 37 GHz) of the order of 16-26 K, which is similar for all models when the snow microstructure metrics are scaled. However, the MEMLS model converges to better results when driven by the correlation length estimated from in-situ SSA measurements rather than D(sub max) measurements. On a practical level, this paper shows that the SSA parameter, a snow property that is easy to retrieve in-situ, appears to be the most relevant parameter for characterizing snow microstructure, despite the need for a scaling factor.

Snow↗

Toward Human-Centric Transportation and Energy Metrics: Influence of Mode, Vehicle Occupancy, Trip Distance, and Fuel Economy

Traditional metrics measuring transportation and energy outcomes can be augmented to better represent impacts on people's lives and systems-level performance. In this context, this study introduces two novel metrics: road capacity (as number of people traveling and accessing services) and energy intensity (as energy use for people traveling and accessing services). Current national-level distributions of available data in the United States for factors contributing to the two new integrated metrics are used as context to evaluate potential outcomes. These factors include vehicle occupancy, mode share, fuel economy, and trip distance. Variations in input values provide insights on how these factors shape efficiencies in road capacity and energy intensity. Parametric sensitivity analysis indicates that the impact of each input depends upon the metric being evaluated. For the human-centered road capacity mobility metric, increasing vehicle occupancy has the largest effect – twice that of increasing mode share for bike, walk, and transit. For the energy intensity mobility metric, the effect of improving fuel economy is the largest. However, when the focus is on accessibility (instead of mobility), for both metrics the effect of lowering average trip distance is the largest. Additionally, a novel interactive tool to visualize the results for various parameter combinations makes the metrics practitioner ready. The findings suggest that the diffusion of new human-centric metrics that benchmark outcomes associated with road capacity and energy may be significant in motivating new sustainable transportation investments and efficient utilization of infrastructure, mobility assets, and services.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Preliminary analysis of space mission applications for electromagnetic launchers

The technical and economic feasibility of using electromagnetically launched EML payloads propelled from the Earth's surface to LEO, GEO, lunar orbit, or to interplanetary space was assessed. Analyses of the designs of rail accelerators and coaxial magnetic accelerators show that each is capable of launching to space payloads of 800 KG or more. A hybrid launcher in which EML is used for the first 2 KM/sec followed by chemical rocket stages was also tested. A cost estimates study shows that one to two EML launches per day are needed to break even, compared to a four-stage rocket. Development models are discussed for: (1) Earth orbital missions; (2) lunar base supply mission; (3) solar system escape mission; (4) Earth escape missions; (5) suborbital missions; (6) electromagnetic boost missions; and (7) space-based missions. Safety factors, environmental impacts, and EML systems analysis are discussed. Alternate systems examined include electrothermal thrustors, an EML rocket gun; an EML theta gun, and Soviet electromagnetic accelerators.

Miller, L. A.↗

Analysis of Data on the Cross Sections for Electron-Impact Ionization and Excitation of Electronic States of Atomic Hydrogen (Review)

A review is given of experimental and theoretical data on the cross sections for ionization, excitation, and deexcitation of atomic hydrogen. The set of the cross sections required to calculate the electron energy distribution function and find the level-to-level rate coefficients needed to solve balance equations for the densities of neutral and charged particles in hydrogen plasma is determined.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An Integrated Approach to Life Cycle Analysis

Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the evaluation of the impacts that design decisions have on a system and provides a framework for identifying and evaluating design benefits and burdens associated with the life cycles of space transportation systems from a "cradle-to-grave" approach. Sometimes called life cycle assessment, life cycle approach, or "cradle to grave analysis", it represents a rapidly emerging family of tools and techniques designed to be a decision support methodology and aid in the development of sustainable systems. The implementation of a Life Cycle Analysis can vary and may take many forms; from global system-level uncertainty-centered analysis to the assessment of individualized discriminatory metrics. This paper will focus on a proven LCA methodology developed by the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center to quantify and assess key LCA discriminatory metrics, in particular affordability, reliability, maintainability, and operability. This paper will address issues inherent in Life Cycle Analysis including direct impacts, such as system development cost and crew safety, as well as indirect impacts, which often take the form of coupled metrics (i.e., the cost of system unreliability). Since LCA deals with the analysis of space vehicle system conceptual designs, it is imperative to stress that the goal of LCA is not to arrive at the answer but, rather, to provide important inputs to a broader strategic planning process, allowing the managers to make risk-informed decisions, and increase the likelihood of meeting mission success criteria.

Chytka, T. M.↗

Circulation weather types associated with extreme flood events in Northwestern Mediterranean

The aim of this work was to identify the circulation weather types associated with flood events that occurred in Catalonia (Northeastern Spain) during the period 1900–2010. To achieve this objective, 261 extraordinary and catastrophic flood and flash flood events that were recorded during this period were characterized and classified based on impact data. A preliminary analysis of maximum precipitation and discharge was conducted in order to have some quantitative hydrometeorological indicators associated with these kinds of events. The objective classification developed by Jenkinson and Collison, which is based on differences in synoptic patterns according to surface pressure, was implemented. Once the weather regimes for each flood event had been established, a statistical and comparative analysis was performed that allowed us to determine which synoptic patterns were more frequently associated with the different flood types, their differences and their similarities. The results show that most synoptic situations were pure cyclonic structures, in both extraordinary and catastrophic events, although they were more frequent in the latter. Catastrophic floods generally had a synoptic origin enhanced by certain mesoscale factors, while extraordinary floods were usually associated with local flash floods that occurred primarily in summer and early autumn, highlighting the undetermined types that were not reflected at a synoptic scale. As the Mediterranean basin is a region where floods cause serious socio-economic impacts, this work will help improve prevention measures and provide information for policymakers, mainly for land-use planning and early warning systems.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

PIVOT: Powering the Transformation of the Global Energy Economy - 2023 JISEA Annual Report

The 2023 JISEA Annual Report describes accomplishments from the past year at the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis, which is powering the transformation of the global energy economy. 2022 was filled with high-impact work in supply chain analysis, industrial decarbonization, sustainable communities, and more. This year, JISEA also launched the Green Computing Catalyzer and welcomed the American-Made program to the center.

catalyzer↗

Impacts of the Conductive Networks on Solid‐State Battery Operation

The micromorphology of composite cathodes is known to play a vital role in determining all-solid-state battery (ASSB) performance. However, much of our current understanding is derived from empirical observations, lacking a deeper mechanistic foundation. The “rocking chair” concept of battery chemistry requires maintaining charge neutrality, emphasizing the necessity of examining electrode micromorphology from the perspective of conductive networks. This study systematically investigates the microscopic electrochemical impacts of conductive network micromorphology by varying the Li + -to-e − channel ratio in cathodes comprising LiNbO 3 -coated LiNi 0.8 Co 0.1 Mn 0.1 O 2 , Li 6 PS 5 Cl, and carbon fibers. Utilizing multiscale synchrotron-based spectro-microscopy, we unravel that unbalanced Li + and e − conducting channels intensify charge polarization within active cathode particles and accelerate their degradation. A further model system with X-ray nano-tomography resolved e − and Li + channels indicates that spatially uniform and well-paired Li + and e − conducting channels are highly desirable as they could promote more uniform lithiation/delithiation, mitigating microscopic electrochemical polarization. Electrode-scale X-ray holotomography analysis reveals that the impact of conductive networks is particle-size-dependent, with smaller cathode particles being more significantly affected. These findings provide mechanistic insights into the interplay between conductive networks and all-solid-state battery operation, laying the groundwork for rational design and optimization of cathode architectures in future solid-state battery technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

AXAF Hypervelocity Impact Test Results

Composite and honeycomb panels are commonly used for spacecraft structural components. The impact test results and analysis of six different composite and honeycomb combinations for use on the advanced X-ray astrophysics facility (AXAF) are reported. The AXAF consists of an X-ray telescope and the associated detecting devices attached to an octagonal spacecraft with an internal propulsion system. The spacecraft's structural panels and optical bench are made of two different graphite fiber reinforced polyimides or composite panels bonded to either side of an aluminum honeycomb. The instrument is required to have at least a 0.92 probability of no failure of any of the critical elements due to meteoroids and debris. In relation to the no-failure probability determination in its low earth orbit environment, hypervelocity impact testing was performed to determine the ballistic limit range and the extent of damage due to impact. The test results for a power and signal cable bundle located behind a panel are presented. Tests planned for a multilayer insulation (MLI) blanket and four types of cable bundles are discussed.

Cynthia L Frost↗