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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

Global Disease Modeling & Forecasting Center [PowerPoint]

The Global Disease Modeling & Forecasting Center works in union with academia, industry, the US Government and global partners to develop, validate, and operationalize epidemiological models to combat infectious diseases. It's mission is to Apply multi-scale modeling and advanced data science to help the world detect, understand, forecast, prevent, and provide decision support in response to emerging and re-emerging disease outbreaks. The presentation explains LANL's role in more detail.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Mars: Always Cold, Sometimes Wet?

A synthesis of a diverse suite of observations of H2O-related landforms that are possible Mars analogs from terrestrial polar regions (Devon Island in the Arctic; the Dry Valleys of Antarctica) put into question any requirement for extended episode(s) of warm and wet climate in Mars past. Geologically transient episodes of localized H2O cycling, forced by exogenic impacts, enhanced endogenic heat flow, and/or orbit-driven short-term local environmental change under an otherwise cold, low pressure (=10(exp 2) mbar) global climate, may be sufficient to account for the martian surface's exposed record of aqueous activity. A Mars that was only sometimes locally warm and wet while remaining climatically cold throughout its history is consistent with results (difficulties) encountered in modeling efforts attempting to support warm martian climate hypotheses. Possible analogs from terrestrial cold climate regions for the recent gully features on Mars also illustrate how transient localized aqueous activity might, under specific circumstances, also occur on Mars under the present frigid global climatic regime.

Lee, Pascal↗

Just Transition Principles: Prepared for the APEC Energy Working Group Workshop on Promoting a Just Energy Transition

A global energy transition from fossil energy to clean energy is unfolding. Just transition is an iterative, continuous process of moving from a fossil-fuel economy to a green economy that provides decent, productive, and ecologically sustainable livelihoods; nurtures social dialogue; and equitably distributes costs and benefits of the energy system. It is aimed at supporting affected workers and communities and affirms that the transition is towards a more equitable energy system. Though the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region as a whole is largely representative of global energy transition trends, APEC’s member economies – and communities within them – will have their own transition nuances. Approaches to just transition must therefore recognize both the global and the local transition dynamics. The report offers eight just transition principles that can help inform work that assures the current energy transition, and its future iterations, are fair and equitable.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Scientific Rationale and Requirements for a Global Seismic Network on Mars

Following a brief overview of the mission concepts for a Mars Global Network Mission as of the time of the workshop, we present the principal scientific objectives to be achieved by a Mars seismic network. We review the lessons for extraterrestrial seismology gained from experience to date on the Moon and on Mars. An important unknown on Mars is the expected rate of seismicity, but theoretical expectations and extrapolation from lunar experience both support the view that seismicity rates, wave propagation characteristics, and signal-to-noise ratios are favorable to the collection of a scientifically rich dataset during the multiyear operation of a global seismic experiment. We discuss how particular types of seismic waves will provide the most useful information to address each of the scientific objectives, and this discussion provides the basis for a strategy for station siting. Finally, we define the necessary technical requirements for the seismic stations.

Solomon, Sean C.↗

Development of an Autonomous Lidar Instrument for Use on a UAV Platform in Support of Homeland Security

Researchers at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center have developed an autonomous aerosol backscatter lidar instrument for use on the high-altitude ER-2 aircraft (for more information please visit http://cpl.gsfc.nasa.gov). Work is currently underway to transfer this instrument to a UAV platform such as Global Hawk. While the NASA applications are Earth science and satellite validation, there is clearly a Homeland Security application for such an instrument. One novel concept is to have a fleet of UAVs stationed around the country, each UAV having a payload including a lidar instrument. In the event of attack, the appropriate UAV(s) could be launched for purposes of, e.g., plume detection and tracking that are critical for decision support. While the existing lidar instrument is not directly capable of biological species discrimination, it is capable of plume tracking and thus can demonstrate to DHS the capabilities and utility of such instruments. Using NASA funding we will have an instrument ready to fly on Global Hawk by end of 2005. We would like to find partners, either within private industry or within DHS who would be willing to contribute aircraft access and flight hours for a demonstration flight. Longer-term partnerships to develop more advanced and more capable types of lidar instruments are also desirable. In this presentation we will detail the existing ER-2 lidar instrument and show measurement results, show the progress made on adapting to the Global Hawk platform, present concepts for DHS uses of such instruments, and openly pursue partnership opportunities.

McGill, Matthew↗

Aero-Propulsion Control Research in Support of NASA Aeronautics Research Strategic Thrusts

In the past few years, NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) has introduced and updated a “New Blueprint for Transforming Global Aviation†. This blueprint consists of six NASA Aeronautics Research Strategic Thrusts â€" “The updated vision is designed to ensure that through NASA's aeronautical research the United States will maintain its leadership in the sky and sustain aviation so that it remains a key economic driver and cultural touchstone for the nation.†In mid-2016, technology development roadmaps were developed by ARMD for each of the strategic research thrusts and these roadmaps are continually being updated based on feedback from the broader aeronautics research community. The NASA Aeronautics research vision is implemented through a set of 4 programs â€" Advanced Air Vehicles Program (AAVP), Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP), Integrated Aviation Systems Program (IASP), and Transformative Aeronautics Concepts Program (TACP). The Intelligent Control and Autonomy Branch (ICAB) at NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in Cleveland, Ohio, is leading and participating in various projects in partnership with other organizations within GRC and across NASA, the U.S. aerospace industry, and academia to develop advanced controls and health management technologies for aero-propulsion systems that will help meet the goals of the ARMD programs. These efforts are primarily under the various projects under AAVP, AOSP, and TACP. The ICAB current research tasks in support of ARMD program are described in this paper. The paper provides motivation, background, technical approach and recent accomplishments for these tasks, as well as a couple of tasks completed in the previous fiscal year.

Propulsion Control↗

Uncertainty Quantification of a Rotorcraft Conceptual Sizing Toolsuite

A computational framework to support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities for rotorcraft applications is presented using the NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) conceptual sizing tool. A 90 passenger conceptual tiltrotor configuration was used for case demonstration in the modeling of uncertainties in NDARCs emission module. A non-intrusive forward propagation uncertainty quantification approach was applied to ensemble simulations using a Monte Carlo methodology with stratified Latin hypercube sampling. An off-the-shelf software, DAKOTA, which supports trade studies and design space exploration, including optimization, surrogate modeling and uncertainty analysis was used to address the research goals. A toolsuite was further developed incorporating DAKOTA with automated design processes and methods using function wrappers to execute program routines including support for data post-processing. Uncertainties in rotorcraft emissions modeling using the Average Temperature Response metric for a set mission profile were studied. It was shown that for the current study, using the base-line best estimate modeling parameters for the Average Temperature Response metric, NDARC under-estimates the effects of emissions when compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. A global sensitivity analysis was further undertaken to quantify the contribution of the various emission species on output sensitivity, hence uncertainty. The work demonstrates that the developed toolsuite is robust and will support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities in future rotorcraft design efforts.

Rotorcraft↗

Recent advances in chemical recycling and upcycling of plastic waste into valuable materials, chemicals, and energy: a comprehensive review

The global plastic waste crisis has increased in severity in recent years: annual plastic production is projected to reach 500 million metric tons by 2025, and plastic waste accumulation is expected to surpass 12 billion metric tons. Despite these growing volumes, only ∼9% of plastic waste is currently recycled; the majority is either landfilled, incinerated, or mismanaged, contributing to escalating greenhouse gas emissions—from 1.7 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 -eq.) in 2015 to an estimated 6.5 Gt CO 2 -eq. by 2050—and physical environmental pollution. This review provides a comprehensive overview of advanced plastic upcycling strategies to address this issue and recover value from diverse plastic waste streams. Recent developments in solvent-based dissolution, chemical depolymerization, and thermochemical conversions are examined for major plastic types, including polyolefins, polycondensation polymers, and PVC. Underlying reaction pathways, catalyst designs, and processing parameters that govern product selectivity, efficiency, and conversion yields are discussed in depth. Emerging techniques such as microwave-assisted depolymerization, tandem catalysis, and co-processing approaches are highlighted for their potential to enhance efficiency under milder conditions. Emphasis is also placed on the production of high-value products such as monomers, naphtha-range hydrocarbons, and syngas, and discussion is provided on catalyst stability, contaminant removal, scalability, life cycle effects on the environment, and technoeconomic viability. Finally, the review outlines future research directions focused on catalyst innovation, integrated process design, supportive policy frameworks, and interdisciplinary collaboration. All recommendations are aimed at accelerating large-scale implementation of plastic upcycling technologies and advancing the global circular plastics economy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Fine-grained Asynchronous Bulk Synchronous parallelism model for PGAS applications

The Partitioned Global Address Space (PGAS) model is well suited for executing irregular applications on cluster-based systems, due to its efficient support for short, one-sided messages. Separately, the actor model has been gaining popularity as a productive asynchronous message-passing approach for distributed objects in enterprise and cloud computing platforms, typically implemented in languages such as Erlang, Scala or Rust. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no past work on using the actor model to deliver both productivity and scalability to irregular PGAS applications with large number of small messages. In this paper, we introduce a new programming system for PGAS applications, in which point-to-point remote operations can be expressed as fine-grained asynchronous actor messages. In our approach, the programmer does not need to worry about programming complexities related to message aggregation and termination detection. Our approach can be viewed as extending the classical Bulk Synchronous Parallelism model with fine-grained asynchronous communications within a phase or superstep. Here, we believe that our approach offers a desirable point in the productivity-performance space for PGAS applications, with more scalable performance and higher productivity relative to past approaches. Specifically, for seven irregular mini-applications from the Bale Kernels and three graph kernels executed using 2048 cores in the NERSC Cori system, our approach shows geometric mean performance improvements of ≥ 20X relative to standard PGAS versions (UPC and OpenSHMEM) while maintaining comparable productivity to those versions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nuclear data uncertainty propagation applied to the versatile test reactor conceptual design

We report the Versatile Test Reactor (VTR) currently under development is a 300 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) fueled with ternary metal alloy fuel, which aims to accelerate the testing of advanced nuclear fuels, materials, instrumentation, and sensors in high flux environments that are necessary to license the next generation of advanced reactor concepts. To support the VTR design process, uncertainties associated with the nuclear data has been propagated through the reactor core neutronics calculation to global parameters of interest, such as the core multiplication factor, kinetic parameters, and various reactivity feedback coefficients, following the sensitivity based uncertainty propagation approach. By folding the sensitivity coefficients, separately computed by the generalized perturbation theory code PERSENT and Monte Carlo code Serpent 2, with the variance-covariance matrices from COMMARA-2.0, we obtain the reaction-wise, isotope-wise, and overall uncertainties for each response of interest due to nuclear data uncertainty. With Serpent 2, the statistical error of the uncertainty is obtained by propagating the statistical error of the sensitivity coefficients through the same process using a newly developed uncertainty propagation method. From both codes, the overall top uncertainty contributors are found to be the cross section of Fe-56 elastic scattering, Na-23 elastic scattering, and U 238 inelastic scattering. The large contributions of the Fe-56 elastic scattering cross sections to global parameters are due to its relatively large relative uncertainty of 5–10% in nuclear data and the large volume of Fe-containing reflector assemblies in the fairly compact VTR core design. Both codes agreed well for the overall uncertainty estimates of all responses of interest, except the delayed neutron fraction, prompt neutron generation time, and the coolant density feedback coefficient, where Serpent 2 yielded a much larger value than PERSENT due to the large statistical error of sensitivity coefficients. The calculated uncertainties are also compared to those associated with other SFR cores. Another outcome of this study is a variance-covariance matrix of reactivity coefficients, which can be used in the subsequent uncertainty propagation to the system level to investigate the impact of identified uncertainties on system responses in the safety analysis.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A harmonized global nighttime light dataset 1992–2018

Nighttime light (NTL) data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP)/Operational Linescan System (OLS) and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite provide a great opportunity for monitoring human activities from regional to global scales. Despite the valuable records of nightscape from DMSP (1992–2013) and VIIRS (2012–2018), the potential of the historical archive of NTL observations has not been fully explored because of the severe inconsistency between DMSP and VIIRS. In this study, we generated an integrated and consistent NTL dataset at the global scale by harmonizing the inter-calibrated NTL observations from the DMSP data and the simulated DMSP-like NTL observations from the VIIRS data. The generated global DMSP NTL time-series data (1992–2018) show consistent temporal trends. This temporally extended DMSP NTL dataset provides valuable support for various studies related to human activities such as electricity consumption and urban extent dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022

Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.

Arctic↗

2001-2002 Southern California Regional Travel Survey

The 2001-2002 Southern California Regional Travel Survey collected data on household characteristics and travel behavior to update regional travel demand models. It covered six counties including Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura. The Southern California Association of Governments contracted with NuStats Partners to conduct the survey following the 2000 decennial census. Survey data collection occurred in 2001 and 2002 using computer-assisted telephone interviewing and travel diaries. Roughly 17,000 households completed the survey. An additional global positioning system (GPS) sample was taken for the purpose of auditing the self-reported diaries. Battelle provided data collection support for the GPS sample.

1Hz data↗

Prefabricated Zero Energy Retrofit Technologies: A Market Assessment

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) mission is to “create and sustain American leadership in the transition to a global clean energy economy.” EERE’s vision is a strong and prosperous America powered by clean, affordable, and secure energy. In support of this vision, one of EERE’s strategic pillars is to stimulate the growth of a thriving domestic clean energy manufacturing industry. This report seeks to identify products in the European and U.S. markets that can enable a more integrated and standardized approach to conducting zero energy retrofits, leveraging off-site construction and manufacturing. Greater integration of energy conservation measures into prefabricated building components will further enable efficiency adoption, while reducing project complexity, risks, and costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Solar Industry Update (Q1/Q2 FY2020) [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Industry Update (Q2/Q3 2020) [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. Government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Solar Industry Update: (H2 2020) [Slides]

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

H1 2021 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗