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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

Evaluation of Anomaly Detection Capability for Ground-Based Pre-Launch Shuttle Operations

This chapter will provide a thorough end-to-end description of the process for evaluation of three different data-driven algorithms for anomaly detection to select the best candidate for deployment as part of a suite of IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) technologies. These algorithms were deemed to be sufficiently mature enough to be considered viable candidates for deployment in support of the maiden launch of Ares I-X, the successor to the Space Shuttle for NASA's Constellation program. Data-driven algorithms are just one of three different types being deployed. The other two types of algorithms being deployed include a "nile-based" expert system, and a "model-based" system. Within these two categories, the deployable candidates have already been selected based upon qualitative factors such as flight heritage. For the rule-based system, SHINE (Spacecraft High-speed Inference Engine) has been selected for deployment, which is a component of BEAM (Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions), a patented technology developed at NASA's JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and serves to aid in the management and identification of operational modes. For the "model-based" system, a commercially available package developed by QSI (Qualtech Systems, Inc.), TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System) has been selected for deployment to aid in diagnosis. In the context of this particular deployment, distinctions among the use of the terms "data-driven," "rule-based," and "model-based," can be found in. Although there are three different categories of algorithms that have been selected for deployment, our main focus in this chapter will be on the evaluation of three candidates for data-driven anomaly detection. These algorithms will be evaluated upon their capability for robustly detecting incipient faults or failures in the ground-based phase of pre-launch space shuttle operations, rather than based oil heritage as performed in previous studies. Robust detection will allow for the achievement of pre-specified minimum false alarm and/or missed detection rates in the selection of alert thresholds. All algorithms will also be optimized with respect to an aggregation of these same criteria. Our study relies upon the use of Shuttle data to act as was a proxy for and in preparation for application to Ares I-X data, which uses a very similar hardware platform for the subsystems that are being targeted (TVC - Thrust Vector Control subsystem for the SRB (Solid Rocket Booster)).

Martin, Rodney Alexander↗

COMPASS Final Report: Lunar Communications Terminal (LCT)

The Lunar Communications Terminal (LCT) COllaborative Modeling and Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) session designed a terminal to provide communications between lunar South Pole assets, communications relay to/from these assets through an orbiting Lunar Relay Satellite (LRS) and navigation support. The design included a complete master equipment list, power requirement list, configuration design, and brief risk assessment and cost analysis. The Terminal consists of a pallet containing the communications and avionics equipment, surrounded by the thermal control system (radiator), an attached, deployable 10-m tower, upon which were mounted locally broadcasting and receiving modems and a deployable 1 m diameter Ka/S band dish which provides relay communications with the lunar relay satellites and, as a backup, Earth when it is in view. All power was assumed to come from the lunar outpost Habitat. Three LCT design options were explored: a stand-alone LCT servicing the manned outpost, an integrated LCT (into the Habitat or Lunar Lander), and a mini-LCT which provides a reduced level of communication for primarily robotic areas dealing as in situ resource utilization (ISRU) and remote science. Where possible all the designs assumed single fault tolerance. Significant mass savings were found when integrating the LCT into the Habitat or Lander but increases in costs occurred depending upon the level of man rating required for such designs.

Oleson, Steven R.↗

Preliminary Analysis of Source Physics Experiment Explosion-Triggered Microseismicity Using the Back-Projection Method

A series of four chemical explosions were detonated in a deep borehole within the Yucca Flat Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) at the Nevada National Security Site between 2018 and 2019. The two larger chemical explosions of 50 tons (DAG-2) and 10 tons (DAG-4) TNT equivalent yield triggered energetic aftershock sequences numbering 1392 and 347 microearthquakes, respectively, within the first 10 days. No significant aftershock activity was observed for the two smaller 1-ton explosions (DAG-1 and DAG-3). Here, we used a back-projection method based on travel-time migration and stacking of signal-to-noise ratio traces to detect, associate and locate aftershocks from a subset of 22-geophones within a larger 2 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb54910:jgrb54910-math-0001 2 km seismic array surrounding the borehole. The aftershocks located within 300 m of the borehole and the depths were above the working points of 300 and 50 m depths of DAG-2 and DAG-4, respectively, ruling out triggering slip on geologic faults or disturbances beneath neighboring collapse craters. DAG-2 and DAG-4 aftershocks decayed at similar rates, with power-law exponents of p = 1.48 and p = 1.49, respectively. These decay rates are comparable to aftershocks sequences triggered by earthquakes and historical nuclear explosions at Yucca Flat. A smooth power-law aftershock decay within the first 10 days suggests a triggering mechanism from explosion generated stress relaxation due to the diffusion of high gas pressures in the cavity and radial fractures. A more random and episodic aftershock rate would be expected due to cavity collapse or falling rubble in chimney formation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A conflict of water and fire: Remote sensing imagery of the Uinkaret Volcanic Field, Grand Canyon, Arizona

The sedimentary geology of the western Grand Canyon consists of gently northeast dipping sandstones, shales, and carbonates. However, due to facies changes within the units, the geomorphology varies from that seen by visitors at the National Park Headquarters. There, the cliff and slope expression of the rocks is replaced in the west by a series of mesas, ridges, and horizontal platforms. The largest of these occurs on the Esplanade Sandstone within the Supai Formation. The Esplanade is formed by slope retreat of the overlying units and resistance to erosion by the underlying limestones. It is onto this platform that the lavas of the Uinkaret Plateau were emplaced. The Uinkaret lava field lies 120 km south of St. George, Utah and is tectonically defined by two major normal faults -- the Hurricane to the west and the Toroweap to the east. The purpose of this investigation was to collect visible, near and thermal infrared data at different periods of the day and year. It is expected that these data will provide the ability to retrieve water temperatures; monitor sediment loads; map and examine any changes in the near shore vegetation communities and understand some of the intricacies of the geology. This paper will serve, to some degree, as a progress report on the Grand Canyon study, since only a fraction of the data has been received and processed thus far. Data from the Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) and the Landsat Thematic Mapper simulator (NS001) were acquired simultaneously on April 4, 1994. A second data acquisition occurred on August 27, 1994. Initial analysis of the TIMS data indicates a remarkably noise-free data set with minimal atmospheric attenuation. environments is evident.

Ramsey, Michael S.↗

Product assurance technology for procuring reliable, radiation-hard, custom LSI/VLSI electronics

Advanced measurement methods using microelectronic test chips are described. These chips are intended to be used in acquiring the data needed to qualify Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC's) for space use. Efforts were focused on developing the technology for obtaining custom IC's from CMOS/bulk silicon foundries. A series of test chips were developed: a parametric test strip, a fault chip, a set of reliability chips, and the CRRES (Combined Release and Radiation Effects Satellite) chip, a test circuit for monitoring space radiation effects. The technical accomplishments of the effort include: (1) development of a fault chip that contains a set of test structures used to evaluate the density of various process-induced defects; (2) development of new test structures and testing techniques for measuring gate-oxide capacitance, gate-overlap capacitance, and propagation delay; (3) development of a set of reliability chips that are used to evaluate failure mechanisms in CMOS/bulk: interconnect and contact electromigration and time-dependent dielectric breakdown; (4) development of MOSFET parameter extraction procedures for evaluating subthreshold characteristics; (5) evaluation of test chips and test strips on the second CRRES wafer run; (6) two dedicated fabrication runs for the CRRES chip flight parts; and (7) publication of two papers: one on the split-cross bridge resistor and another on asymmetrical SRAM (static random access memory) cells for single-event upset analysis.

Buehler, M. G.↗

Disorderly Conduct of Benzamide IV: Crystallographic and Computational Analysis of High Entropy Polymorphs of Small Molecules

Benzamide, a simple derivative of benzoic acid and a common intermediate of pharmaceutical compounds, was reported to form two polymorphs in 1832, but the single crystal structure of the more stable form was not solved until 1959. Nearly 50 years later, the second form was characterized by powder diffraction, followed shortly thereafter by characterization of a third form, a polytype of the most thermodynamically stable Form I. These two new forms, Forms II and III, are metastable. Herein, we describe a fourth polymorph, Form IV, discovered by melt crystallization concurrently with its crystallization under confinement at small length scales (<10 nm), where it is stable indefinitely. Form III exists under confinement in larger pores, and melting point data for different pore sizes corroborate the existence of Form IV below 10 nm. Form IV is highly disordered, precluding indexing of powder diffraction data other than hk0 reflections. Nonetheless, a combination of powder X-ray diffraction and computational crystal structure prediction reveals that Form IV contains a 2D motif resembling that of Form II, but with longrange order in the third dimension masked by ubiquitous stacking faults. This approach relies on distilling a large number of candidate structures to a few possible disorder models based on benzamide tetrads that organize in 2D parquet-like tiles, with organization along the third dimension, that can be modeled with various stacking fault configurations having distinct intermolecular interactions and translations in the dimension orthogonal to the tiling planes. These observations reveal a bewildering crystallographic complexity for such a simple molecule. Nonetheless, the approach described herein demonstrates that challenging structures that may be abandoned prematurely because of poor crystallinity, twinning, or disorder can be solved.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Modeling Input Parameters on Wind Turbine Loads in Deterministic Transient Load Cases

Aero-hydro-elastic-servo numerical models used to design and analyze wind turbines are based on thousands of variable input parameters that dictate the inflow, aerodynamic, structural, and control characteristics of the system as well as sea state, hydrodynamic, and mooring characteristics for fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines. Each of these parameters has some level of uncertainty, which can significantly impact the predicted loads. Understanding the uncertainty in the inputs is critical to understanding the uncertainty in the outputs. This work demonstrates a screening technique to identify which parameters ultimate loads are most sensitive to so that more focus can be given to quantifying the possible range of those parameters. This technique has been demonstrated previously for different turbine and load case types and is extended here for a floating offshore wind turbine in design load cases with transient events both in the inflow and operations. Each load case features a deterministic gust, including variations in wind speed, direction, and shear. Load cases are considered with an operating turbine as well as with prescribed fault, startup, and shutdown procedures. The study found that key input parameters with a large impact on loads include the length of the gust, the magnitude of direction change and speed in the gust, the initial wind speed, and the shape of the gust profile.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Large-Scale Visualization of 3D Unstructured Groundwater Model Using Cave Automated Virtual Environment

The immersive three-dimensional (3D) virtual reality (VR) visualization of groundwater models allows us to deepen our understanding of aquifer systems and provide better solutions to present groundwater-related problems, such as groundwater recharge, water quality, and sustainability. Visualization assists in accurately developing groundwater models and revealing important subsurface features, including faulting, folding, and unconformity. However, assessing model accuracy poses challenges due to the complexity of geology and groundwater systems. This research demonstrates a workflow to visualize and analyze raw 3D unstructured groundwater model data using an immersive Cave Automated Virtual Environment (CAVE). To visualize the unstructured groundwater model data, the raw dataset is converted into interactive CAVE-compatible formats utilizing a set of tools: ParaView, Blender, and Unity. This enables researchers to immerse themselves in the data, identifying influential patterns and relationships. e resulting insights can inform the development of sophisticated machine-learning models for groundwater level prediction. The CAVE’s immersive capabilities allow intuitive exploration from various perspectives, providing a more holistic understanding of the factors affecting groundwater levels. These insights are crucial to improve predictive models. The CAVE results also facilitate collaborative analysis and have potential applications in training and education. is research demonstrates the value of immersive VR tools such as the CAVE for unraveling intricacies within high-dimensional scientific data to drive real-world forecasting and modeling applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Fuel Cell Electric Bus Hydrogen Storage and Refueling Facility

It is necessary to understand the safety implications and risk mitigation options for fuel cell electric bus fleet deployment, especially for related facilities responsible for operations such as production, storage, compression, and dispensing of hydrogen for use by the buses. In this report, we present a quantitative risk assessment for a potential fuel cell electric bus fleet that was motivated by efforts to improve resilience at the Portland International Airport but can be applicable to a range of hydrogen case studies and use cases. We estimated risk for a facility that produces, stores, compresses, and dispenses hydrogen for the fleet of buses, with a focus on individual risk to people in terms of annual frequency of fatality. We considered the frequency of hydrogen leaks that could result in harmful physical outcomes like jet fires or explosions, and the consequences of those outcomes for people. We created customized fault trees to calculate the frequencies of different sizes of leaks and event sequence diagrams to calculate ignition probabilities for the various leak sizes. We also leveraged the HyRAM+ toolkit to use these inputs to calculate overall risk for the facility, which we separated into one section responsible for producing, storing, and compressing hydrogen, and one section responsible for dispensing the hydrogen to the buses. We found that the dispensing area seemed to have a higher risk than the production/storage/compression area of the facility, largely because of the inclusion of a component with a high leak frequency (the heat exchanger used to cool the hydrogen before entering the vehicle, to prevent overheating and expansion of hydrogen in the onboard tank). For the example production and refueling facility we evaluated and the data we used for the analysis, the leak frequency had a larger impact on the risk differences between the two sections on the facility, compared to the physical outcome consequence, which was slightly different due to the varying fuel conditions, but not substantially different. Actions can be taken to prevent these hazards (e.g., lowering leak frequencies in system components) or to mitigate the consequences if they do occur (e.g., installing barriers to protect people if ignition events occur). The choice of which actions to take depends not only on safety considerations but also on space, time, staffing, feasibility, and financial constraints. Therefore, the quantitative risk assessment approach can help understand relative risk contributions from different components, leak sizes, consequences, and human actions, to prioritize risk reduction strategies and balance these parameters. The outcomes of this report may be useful for a variety of stakeholders working in the hydrogen, transportation, vehicle, and aviation sector, including those responsible for aspects like facility design, operations, and regulations. There is not a single value of risk that determines whether a hypothetical system is “safe” or not. The insights about risk mitigations may be leveraged, and the quantitative risk assessment approach can be applied to other case studies to understand risk priorities and contributions specific to different FCEB and hydrogen facility uses.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Flexural rigidity of the Basin and Range-Colorado Plateau-Rocky Mountain transition from coherence analysis of gravity and topography

Stochastic inversion for flexural loads and flexural rigidity of the continental elastic layer can be accomplished most effectively by using the coherence of gravity and topography. However, the spatial resolution of coherence analysis has been limited by use of two-dimensional periodogram spectra from very large (greater than 10(exp 5)sq km) windows that generally include multiple tectonic features. Using a two-dimensional spectral estimator based on the maximum entropy method, the spatial resolution of flexural proerties can be enhanced by a factor of 4 or more, enabling more detailed analysis at the scale of individual tectonic features. This new approach is used to map the spatial variation of flexural rigidity along the Basin and Range transition to the Colorado Plateau and Middle Rocky Mountains physiographic provinces. Large variations in flexural isostatic responses are found, with rigidities ranging from as low as 8.7 x 10(exp 20) N m (elastic thickness (T(sub e) = 4.6 km) in the Basin and Range to as high as 4.1 x 10(exp 24) N m T(sub e) = 77 km) in the Middle Rocky Mountains. These results compare favorably woith independent determinations of flexural rigidity in the region. Areas of low flexural rigidity correlate strongly with areas of high surface heat flow, as is expected from the contingence of flexural rigidity on a temperature-dependent flow law. Also, late Cenozoic normal faults with large displacements are found primarily in area of low flexural rigidity region. The highest flexural rigidity is found within the Archean Wyoming craton, where evidence suggests that deeply rooted cratonic lithosphere may play a role in determining the distribution of tectonism at the surface.

Lowery, Anthony R.↗

Advancing Geophysical Techniques to Image a Stratigraphic Hydrothermal Resource

Sedimentary-hosted geothermal energy systems are permeable structural, structural-stratigraphic, and/or stratigraphic horizons with sufficient temperature for direct use and/or electricity generation. Sedimentary-hosted (i.e., stratigraphic) geothermal reservoirs may be present in multiple locations across the central and eastern Great Basin of the USA, thereby constituting a potentially large base of untapped, economically accessible energy resources. Sandia National Laboratories has partnered with a multi disciplinary group of collaborators to evaluate a stratigraphic system in Steptoe Valley, Nevada using both established and novel geophysical imaging techniques. The goal of this study is to inform an optimized strategy for subsequent exploration and development of this resource and analogous ones. Building from prior Nevada Play Fairway Analysis (PFA), this team is primarily 1) collecting additional geophysical data, 2) employing novel joint geophysical inversion/modeling techniques to update existing 3D geologic models, and 3) integrating the geophysical results to produce a working, geologically constrained thermo-hydrological reservoir model. Prior PFA work highlights Steptoe Valley as a favorable resource basin that likely has both sedimentary and hydrothermal characteristics. However, there remains significant uncertainty on the nature and architecture of the resource(s) at depth, which increases the risk in exploratory drilling. Newly acquired gravity, magnetic, magnetotelluric, and controlled-source electromagnetic data products, in conjunction with new and preexisting geoscientific measurements and observations, are being integrated and evaluated for efficacy in understanding stratigraphic geothermal resources and mitigating exploration risk. Furthermore, the influence of hydrothermal activity on sedimentary-hosted reservoirs in favorable structural settings, and whether fault-controlled systems may locally enhance temperature and permeability in some deep stratigraphic reservoirs, will also be evaluated.

Geothermal, Sedimentary Heat, Geophysics, Seismic,↗

Comprehensive earthquake catalogue update and spatiotemporal distribution analysis for Iraq and surrounding regions, northeastern Arabian Plate

The updated earthquake catalogue for Iraq covers the period from 1900 to the end of 2021 and includes over 37 000 recorded earthquakes. To create this comprehensive catalogue, five key steps were taken: compiling bulletins, calculating moment magnitudes, harmonizing magnitudes, establishing empirical conversion relations and evaluating the completeness of the catalogue. A notable enhancement in this update is the direct calculation of moment magnitudes for approximately 2800 earthquakes, achieved through the coda envelope technique and waveform data from the Mesopotamian Seismological Network (MPSN) in Iraq. This updated catalogue serves as a valuable resource for examining the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes, with respect to earthquake density, maximum moment magnitude and seismogenic depths. Additionally, the Gutenberg–Richter relationship was applied to calculate the a- and b-values specific to Iraq. The findings show that the Zagros Fold-Thrust Belt has a seismogenic layer (source) that ranges from 2 to 33 km deep and experiences high seismic activity. In contrast, the Mesopotamian Foredeep has a seismogenic layer ranging from 1 to 25 km deep and has lower seismic activity. The greatest seismic activity is concentrated around the Mandili-Badra-Teeb fault, which has experienced significant ruptures over time. The Outer Arabian Platform is identified as the main area of seismic activity, while additional activity occurs on the Inner Arabian Platform. Three major tectonic boundaries define the distribution of earthquakes in the northeastern Arabian Plate. These boundaries are defined by the Main Zagros Reverse Fault, the Zagros Foredeep Fault and the Anah Graben and Abu Jir-Euphrates Fault Zone. These boundaries highlight variations in seismicity levels and the spatial distribution of deformation in the region. The updated earthquake catalogue presented in this study is expected to play a vital role in regional seismicity assessments and seismic hazard analyses for Iraq and its surrounding areas.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The origin of lunar mascons - Analysis of the Bouguer gravity associated with Grimaldi

Grimaldi is a relatively small multi-ringed basin located on the western limb of the moon. Spacecraft free-air gravity data reveal a mascon associated with the inner ring of this structure, and the topographic correction to the local lunar gravity field indicates a maximum Bouguer anomaly of +90 milligals at an altitude of 70 kilometers. Approximately 20% of this positive Bouguer anomaly can be attributed to the mare material lying within the inner ring of this basin. From a consideration of the Bouguer gravity and structure of large lunar craters comparable in size to the central basin of Grimaldi, it is suggested that the remaining positive Bouguer anomaly is due to a centrally uplifted plug of lunar mantle material. The uplift was caused by inward crustal collapse which also resulted in the formation of the concentric outer scarp of Grimaldi. In addition, an annulus of low density material, probably a combination of ejecta and in situ breccia, is required to fully reproduce the Bouguer gravity signature across this basin. It is proposed that Grimaldi supplies a critical test in the theory of mascon formation: crustal collapse by ring faulting and central uplift to depths of the crust-mantle boundary are requisites

Phillips, R. J.↗

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Crustal Strain Rates in the Western United States and Their Relationship with Earthquake Rates

Abstract We present a suite of strain rate models for the western United States based on geologic and geodetic data. The geologic data consist of Quaternary fault-slip rates and the geodetic data consists of a new compilation of Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities derived from continuous, semicontinuous, and campaign measurements. We remove postseismic deformation from the GPS time series in order for our geodetic strain rate model to best capture the interseismic strain accumulation rate. We present models based on either geologic or geodetic data, but also create a hybrid model. Although there are some differences between the models, the large-scale features are the same, with the noticeable exception for the Pacific Northwest where interseismic strain is naturally more distributed than the long-term strain release. We also present a map of earthquake rate densities based on mainshocks, and the result has similar spatial features similar to the strain rate models (at least in the southwestern United States). We perform a general correlation analysis between strain rate and seismicity rate (south of Cascadia) and find a change in linearity between seismicity and strain rates from slow to faster deforming areas with seismicity rates relatively lower for the latter. The extent of that change depends a bit on assumptions made on the declustering and completeness of the catalog, but the finding of a change in slope is robust across the different strain rate models. Linearity for all areas is only expected when Gutenberg–Richter parameters and parameters involved in the conversion from strain to moment rate are uniform across the study area. We discuss these qualifications, but find no single satisfactory explanation for our observation. Moreover, when considering a rather short time and space, theoretical considerations of sampling from a power-law distribution actually predict there to be a power law instead of a linear relationship, generally consistent with our observation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Experiences with a prevalidation methodology for designing integrated/propulsion control system architectures

The work described in this paper is supported under NASA contract NAS1-18099, Analysis and Detailed Design of an Integrated Airfame/Propulsion Control System Architecture (IAPSA II). This contract address methodology, analysis and detailed design of integrated control system architectures suitable for high performance aircraft of the 1990's. We have developed methodology, with supporting analytical tools, to provide system designers with the capability to specify candidate architectures and accurately predict their reliability and performance in the early stages of design development. This paper describes experience gained using the prevalidation methodology, including supporting tools.

Propulsion control system↗

A report on SHARP (Spacecraft Health Automated Reasoning Prototype) and the Voyager Neptune encounter

The development and application of the Spacecraft Health Automated Reasoning Prototype (SHARP) for the operations of the telecommunications systems and link analysis functions in Voyager mission operations are presented. An overview is provided of the design and functional description of the SHARP system as it was applied to Voyager. Some of the current problems and motivations for automation in real-time mission operations are discussed, as are the specific solutions that SHARP provides. The application of SHARP to Voyager telecommunications had the goal of being a proof-of-capability demonstration of artificial intelligence as applied to the problem of real-time monitoring functions in planetary mission operations. AS part of achieving this central goal, the SHARP application effort was also required to address the issue of the design of an appropriate software system architecture for a ground-based, highly automated spacecraft monitoring system for mission operations, including methods for: (1) embedding a knowledge-based expert system for fault detection, isolation, and recovery within this architecture; (2) acquiring, managing, and fusing the multiple sources of information used by operations personnel; and (3) providing information-rich displays to human operators who need to exercise the capabilities of the automated system. In this regard, SHARP has provided an excellent example of how advanced artificial intelligence techniques can be smoothly integrated with a variety of conventionally programmed software modules, as well as guidance and solutions for many questions about automation in mission operations.

Martin, R. G.↗

Constraints on the Evolution of the Dichotomy Boundary at 50-90E

The global dichotomy is a fundamental feature of Mars. It marks the boundary between the highly cratered, older southern highlands, and the northern plains. Recent analysis of buried craters in the northern lowlands confirms the long held suspicion that they are comparable in age to the southern highlands, but with surficial deposits of younger material. A variety of exogenic and endogenic models have been proposed for the origin of the dichotomy, including multiple impacts, plate tectonics, and degree one convection produced by core formation, a plume under the lowlands, or a plume under the highlands. New gravity and topography data from the Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Mission favor endogenic processes. In this study we examine MGS topography, gravity and magnetic field data to constrain the tectonic history the dichotomy in the region 30-60N and 50-90E, which encompasses portions of the Ismenius Lacus quadrangle. The dichotomy formed very early the history of Mars and has undergone extensive modification by impact cratering, erosion, and faulting. This history must be carefully interpreted in order to reconstruct the original nature of the dichotomy boundary and ultimately discriminate between models of origin. In the study area boundary-parallel faults are well preserved, and may be the result of gravitational relaxation. The geologic history has been examined in detail, including estimates of volumes of material eroded. Further, it is one of the few regions where there is a correlation between the free air gravity, magnetic anomalies, and the geology. This allows to constrain subsurface faulting beneath the lowlands fill material. In addition to being an excellent location to unravel the complex history of the dichotomy, this area preserves the transition from a highly magnetized highlands crust to an unmagnetized or slightly magnetized lowlands crust.

S E Smrekar↗