Results for “energy system analysis” — Page 84

NASA NTRS1981

Energy coupling between the solar wind and the magnetosphere

A description is given of the path leading to the first approximation expression for the solar wind-magnetosphere energy coupling function (epsilon), which correlates well with the total energy consumption rate (U sub T) of the magnetosphere. It is shown that epsilon is the primary factor controlling the time development of magnetospheric substorms and storms. The finding of this particular expression epsilon indicates how the solar wind couples its energy to the magnetosphere; the solar wind and the magnetosphere make up a dynamo. In fact, the power generated by the dynamo can be identified as epsilon through the use of a dimensional analysis. In addition, the finding of epsilon suggests that the magnetosphere is closer to a directly driven system than to an unloading system which stores the generated energy before converting it to substorm and storm energies. The finding of epsilon and its implications is considered to have significantly advanced and improved the understanding of magnetospheric processes.

Akasofu, S.-I.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Energy, economic, and environmental tradeoffs at run-of-river hydropower facilities

Hydropower’s ability to quickly adapt to variability from wind and solar generation by fluctuation flow rates can allow the electricity grid to integrate more renewable capacity. However, these rapid flow fluctuations, required to meet variability needs, can negatively impact aquatic ecosystems. In this study, we quantified energy-economic-environment tradeoffs at five conventional hydropower facilities (i.e. hydropower produced ad a dam on a river channel) across the United States to identify a mix of operational regimes that can provide flexibility to support variable renewable energy integration and environmental protections. Model results show a range of ability to meet demand from 4.7% to 97.8% depending on which case study is considered. Additionally, when modeling the case study facilities on a range of RoR conditions, allowing a % of inflow as discharge, we found the range of 140–200% of inflow allowed as discharge lead to lowest environmental impact while meeting the highest amount of demand. Our sensitivity analysis results demonstrated the Richard-Baker Flashiness Index, used to measure flowrate changes, and Revenue, were negatively correlated with the percent of hydropower generation within the defined Regional Energy Deployment System balancing area (i.e. region in which energy demand and energy supply is balanced based on the Regional Energy Deployment System model) yet positively correlated to the variable renewable energy generation percentage in the defined balancing area. In conclusion, our results suggest hydropower operations can aid in increasing renewable energy generation while limiting environmental impacts when considering a holistic analysis of energy-economic-environment tradeoffs.

Economic impact↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Data-Driven Global Sensitivity Analysis Framework for Three-Phase Distribution System with PVs

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution systems with respect to stochastic PV and load variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a data-driven framework for GSA of distribution systems. In particular, two representative surrogate modeling-based approaches are developed, including the traditional Gaussian process-based and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) kernel ones. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol indices can be conveniently calculated through either the sampling-based method or the analytical method to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to variations of PV and load power injections. The sampling-based method approximates the Sobol indices using Monte Carlo simulations while the analytical method calculates them by resorting to the ANOVA expansion framework. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the unbalanced three-phase IEEE 37-bus and 123-bus distribution systems show that the proposed framework can achieve much higher computational efficiency with negligible loss of accuracy. The results on a real 240-node distribution system using actual smart meter data further validate the feasibility and scalability of the proposed framework.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Visual HPC Workflows for the Analysis of System Dynamics Models

Visual analytics supported by high performance computing (HPC) accelerates and enhances the discovery, exploration, and analysis of causal patterns in complex system dynamics (SD) models. We present a suite of visualization-assisted ensemble-based techniques for hypothesis generation and testing, and for sensitivity analysis. By employing HPC to provide parallel, on-demand simulation of SD models, one can “steer” an ensemble of simulated scenarios in real time as one first formulates and then informally tests those hypotheses: this provides rapid feedback for analysts to refine their understanding of the causal relationships emergent from a model. Such understandings can be followed and augmented by rigorous application of statistical methods, namely global variance-based sensitivity analysis, Monte-Carlo filtering, adaptive regional sensitivity analysis, and self-organized maps: here timely computation relies on HPC, while effective presentation emphasizes high-dimensional multivariate data visualization. Immersive visualization in virtual 3D environments provides an excellent adjunct to the traditional 2D graphics typically used for SD models, as it generates an embodied understanding of model behavior and facilitates an active, collaborative critique of model structure and output. Finally, we summarize prospects for HPC-enabled visual analytics applied to SD modeling.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Energy Flow in Thin Shell Implosions and Explosions

Energy flow and balance in convergent systems beyond petapascal energy densities controls the fate of late-stage stars and the potential for controlling thermonuclear inertial fusion ignition. Time-resolved x-ray self-emission imaging combined with a Bayesian inference analysis is used to describe the energy flow and the potential information stored in the rebounding spherical shock at 0.22 PPa (2.2 Gbar or billions of atmospheres pressure). This analysis, together with a simple mechanical model, describes the trajectory of the shell and the time history of the pressure at the fuel-shell interface, ablation pressure, and energy partitioning including kinetic energy of the shell and internal energy of the fuel. Here, the techniques used here provide a fully self-consistent uncertainty analysis of integrated implosion data, a thermodynamic-path independent measurement of pressure in the petapascal range, and can be used to deduce the energy ow in a wide variety of implosion systems to petapascal energy densities.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Test of a Novel, Commercial-Scale Wave Energy Direct-Drive Rotary Power Take-Off at the NREL National Wind Technology Center (CRADA CRD-14-571 Final Report)

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) will work with Columbia Power Technologies [C-Power] to support work under US DOE DE-EE-0006399, “Build and Test of a Novel, Commercial-Scale Wave Energy Direct-Drive Rotary Power Take-Off Under Realistic Open-Ocean Conditions.” Work will include a review of their design for a novel wave energy direct drive generator. After review, the system will be prototyped and tested in the NREL National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) 5MW dynamometer and data will be recorded and analyzed. Conclusions from data analysis will be used to improve the design prior to completing a version of the system for ocean deployment. Additionally, NREL will work with Columbia Power Technologies [C-Power] to quantify the system levelized cost of energy (LCOE) and analyze the system in agreement with US DOE System Performance Advancement (SPA) goals 1 and 2.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Digital Twin Framework for Liquid-cooled Supercomputers as Demonstrated at Exascale

We present ExaDigiT, an open-source framework for developing comprehensive digital twins of liquid-cooled supercomputers. It integrates three main modules: (1) a resource allocator and power simulator, (2) a transient thermo-fluidic cooling model, and (3) an augmented reality model of the supercomputer and central energy plant. The framework enables the study of "what-if" scenarios, system optimizations, and virtual prototyping of future systems. Using Frontier as a case study, we demonstrate the framework's capabilities by replaying six months of system telemetry for systematic verification and validation. Such a comprehensive analysis of a liquid-cooled exascale supercomputer is the first of its kind. ExaDigiT elucidates complex transient cooling system dynamics, runs synthetic or real workloads, and predicts energy losses due to rectification and voltage conversion. Throughout our paper, we present lessons learned to benefit HPC practitioners developing similar digital twins. We envision the digital twin will be a key enabler for sustainable, energy-efficient supercomputing.

Brewer, Wes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study

The Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study (AOSWTS) is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) efforts to understand and facilitate the transmission of electricity from wind in the Atlantic Ocean. It was informed by the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Literature Review and Gaps Analysis (Bothwell et al. 2021) and the convening workshops hosted in 2022-2023 by DOE and the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The study results help to inform An Action Plan for Offshore Wind Transmission Development in the U.S. Atlantic Region (Baker et al. 2023). DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office funded AOSWTS. The AOSWTS identifies and evaluates pathways to enable offshore wind energy deployment in the Atlantic Ocean through coordinated offshore transmission solutions in the near term (by 2030) and long term (by 2050). The study fills gaps in prior analyses by providing a multiregional planning perspective that evaluates offshore wind generation development with transmission planning. It incorporates environmental, ocean co-use, and other siting considerations into defining potential offshore transmission routes. The study also compares different multiregional offshore transmission topologies and their associated costs (using potential cable routes) and benefits (in terms of production cost savings and enhanced resource adequacy). In addition, the AOSWTS analyzes reliability impacts from a multiregional perspective. The study provides guidance for policymakers and transmission stakeholders on possible outcomes resulting from a proactive, coordinated, and interregional approach to transmission planning for offshore wind energy development in the Atlantic. While this study presents possibilities, additional work following system operator methods and procedures can help build on this analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study: Executive Summary

The Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study (AOSWTS) is part of the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) efforts to understand and facilitate the transmission of electricity from wind in the Atlantic Ocean. It was informed by the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Literature Review and Gaps Analysis (Bothwell et al. 2021) and the convening workshops hosted in 2022-2023 by DOE and the U.S. Department of the Interior's Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. The study results help to inform An Action Plan for Offshore Wind Transmission Development in the U.S. Atlantic Region (Baker et al. 2023). DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office funded AOSWTS. The AOSWTS identifies and evaluates pathways to enable offshore wind energy deployment in the Atlantic Ocean through coordinated offshore transmission solutions in the near term (by 2030) and long term (by 2050). The study fills gaps in prior analyses by providing a multiregional planning perspective that evaluates offshore wind generation development with transmission planning. It incorporates environmental, ocean co-use, and other siting considerations into defining potential offshore transmission routes. The study also compares different multiregional offshore transmission topologies and their associated costs (using potential cable routes) and benefits (in terms of production cost savings and enhanced resource adequacy). In addition, the AOSWTS analyzes reliability impacts from a multiregional perspective. The study provides guidance for policymakers and transmission stakeholders on possible outcomes resulting from a proactive, coordinated, and interregional approach to transmission planning for offshore wind energy development in the Atlantic. While this study presents possibilities, additional work following system operator methods and procedures can help build on this analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

The ABCs of On-Demand Transit (ODT)

On-demand mobility - also referred to as on-demand transit (ODT) - is a form of public mobility that is flexible with respect to where and when service is provided, and ODT deployments have increased significantly in recent years. Transit agencies are becoming increasingly interested in ODT, and due to differing definitions and various service design and business model options, it can be difficult to learn about the emerging industry. This work provides an overview of the definitions of ODT, recent trends internationally and in the U.S., ODT's benefits and challenges (particularly compared to fixed-route transit), three primary service design options, system costs and funding considerations, and a metrics framework for evaluating ODT systems to ensure continued successful performance. Identified benefits include increased service areas, short ride and wait times, increased user flexibility, potential to reduce energy consumption and emissions through shared trips and smaller, right-sized vehicles, increased safety and comfort through door-to-door service, and rich data streams including granular spatio-temporal data that can be analyzed to continuously improve the service. Challenges include scaling ODT service up as small increases in ridership require additional supply to keep service quality high, serving peak times including keeping low wait times, the lack of fixed schedule being challenging for commuters, integrating ODT services with nearby transit systems, and equity for riders without smartphones who cannot track the vehicle in a mobile app. Finally, an overview of seven ODT case studies (in Texas, Missouri, New York, and Ontario, Canada) performed by NREL and related analysis of travel time, energy and emissions, costs, and equity are presented. Initial key findings include: ODT can be cost- and energy-effective compared to fixed-route transit, ODT serves more people than other transit options, and ODT system deployments can be followed by rapid growth.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale modeling of metal-hydride interphases—quantification of decoupled chemo-mechanical energies

Abstract The quantification of interphase properties between metals and their corresponding hydrides is crucial for modeling the thermodynamics and kinetics of the hydrogenation processes in solid-state hydrogen storage materials. In particular, interphase boundary energies assume a pivotal role in determining the kinetics of nucleation, growth, and coarsening of hydrides, alongside accompanying morphological evolution during hydrogenation. The total interphase energy arises from both chemical bonding and mechanical strains in these solid-state systems. Since these contributions are usually coupled, it is challenging to distinguish via conventional computational approaches. Here, a comprehensive atomistic modeling methodology is developed to decouple chemical and mechanical energy contributions using first-principles calculations, of which feasibility is demonstrated by quantifying chemical and elastic strain energies of key interfaces within the FeTi metal-hydride system. Derived materials parameters are then employed for mesoscopic micromechanical analysis, predicting crystallographic orientations in line with experimental observations. The multiscale approach outlined verifies the importance of the chemo-mechanical interplay in the morphological evolution of growing hydride phases, and can be generalized to investigate other systems. In addition, it can streamline the design of atomistic models for the quantitative evaluation of interphase properties between dissimilar phases and allow for efficient predictions of their preferred phase boundary orientations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Reservoir Production Scenarios

The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solar Steam on Demand

INTRODUCTION: This Report summarizes the research and development project performed by Sunvapor and the subrecipient National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) during the period of 10/01/2018-9/30/2021. The work was aimed at the economic integration of solar steam with an industrial process, and in particular, the advantages that a novel type of thermal energy storage and collector design could bring to the system. The completed work includes experimental research on the storage material, design of the collector, engineering of a complete solar steam plant, and economic analysis. The plant was, in the end, not constructed, due to COVID-19 impacts to the project host. PURPOSE: The purpose of the project was to test the hypothesis that a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 2¢/kWh delivered to a steam-consuming process, including energy discharged from storage, could be feasibly achieved. PROJECT OBJECTIVES: For Budget Period 1 our objectives were to engineer a prototype industrial solar steam generation system, and design and test a Latent Heat Energy Storage (LHES) lab-scale system. For Budget Period 2 our objectives were to construct and test the solar steam prototype plant, and to build and factory-test a full LHES module. For Budget Period 3 our objective was to integrate the storage module with the solar steam generator, show successful long duration energy tests of the combined system, and use the results to project the LCOH of delivered steam to a second-generation plant. PROJECT OUTCOMES: Various phase change materials (PCMs) for the LHES were tested for compatibility with industrial steam uses as measured by phase change temperature, stability of latent heat of fusion, and their corrosive effects on steel (the heat exchanger material). Two of these materials (sodium formate and sodium/ potassium) showed potential to meet the technical criteria. The estimated cost of a complete LHES module with these materials did not meet economic targets. The developmental collector design builds from previous work to exploit the potential cost advantages of a spaceframe of lumber construction. Design improvements were achieved in assembly efficiency and structural performance. A complete engineering package was completed for the solar steam system without storage that included the developmental as well as commercial arrays. The plant was permitted for construction. The storage CAPEX for a reference plant was estimate to be greater than $\$ 57$/kWh. The LCOH of the system without storage and with developmental collectors of lumber construction was projected to be 2¢/kWh, assuming a FCR of 8.2% over thirty years. PROJECT MILESTONES: The Milestones fully achieved in the first Budget Period includes obtaining a Letter of Intent from an industrial steam-consuming project host, issuance of a construction permit, and corrosion resistance. The Milestone that was partly achieved was the degradation in the latent heat of fusion. Milestones associated with Budget Periods 2 and 3, related to the construction and operation of the plant were not achieved as a result of the host shutting down the plant due to COVID-19 impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Sunvapor was able to secure an agreement with a host to build a fully engineered and permitted solar steam plant that met the host’s economic goals. As a basis for comparison, the solar field design was comprised of eight commercial collector arrays and one developmental Green Parabolic Trough Collector (GPTC) array. The projected LCOH with a solar field entirely populated with a second generation GPTC met the goal of 2¢/kWh. The experimental program concerning the PCM indicated the feasibility of meeting their technical requirements for industrial steam uses. The cost of the complete LHES exceeded its $\$ 14$/kWh target, and therefore the inclusion of LHES could not be economically justified. Due to COVID-19 impacts on the host, the solar steam plant was not constructed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Solar Potential Analysis for the MISO Region

As part of the Minnesota Solar Pathways project, funded in part by the Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office, Clean Power Research completed a scenario-based analysis that estimates and optimizes the levelized cost of capacity for high renewables penetrations across the entirety of the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) region. The analysis concludes that it can be cheaper to overbuild solar + wind and curtail surplus than to store all generation. The analysis described in this report was preceded by an analysis completed in 2018 that used the same modeling framework to optimize generation resources located only in Minnesota.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1983

Solar thermal technology development: Estimated market size and energy cost savings. Volume 2: Assumptions, methodology and results

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. Three fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. Solar thermal technology research and development (R&D) is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), depending on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest. Analysis is also provided regarding two federal incentives currently in use: The Federal Business Energy Tax Credit and direct R&D funding.

Gates, W. R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

3D Play Fairway Analysis for Examining of Superhot Drilling Production Scenarios: Preprint

The DEEPEN (DE-risking Exploration for geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments) project was a multi-laboratory, international effort to reduce uncertainty and improve resource characterization in superhot geothermal systems. Building on this foundation, this work advances open-source tools designed to lower the exploration risk and cost of superhot geothermal projects while promoting transparency, reproducibility, and efficiency in exploration workflows. These tools are being tested at two key sites: (1) the Nesjavellir Geothermal Area in Iceland, where the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project (IDDP) will drill its third well, and (2) Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA, where Mazama Energy will pilot the first superhot enhanced geothermal system (EGS). A major outcome is the creation of a modular, open-source Python framework for play fairway analysis (PFA) in 2D and 3D, called geoPFA. The PFA workflow has been expanded to produce pseudo conceptual models, and will soon be refined to assess reservoir components through integration with the thermo-hydraulic-mechanical-chemical (THMC) simulator TReactMech, to enable iterative coupling between PFA and THMC models, improving characterization of superhot systems. All three of the Icelandic Deep Drilling Project's production scenarios were analyzed via this framework: (1) a superhot deep injection well paired with conventional production wells at Nesjavellir, (2) a superhot deep production well at Nesjavellir, and (3) superhot enhanced geothermal system at Newberry Volcano. This analysis provides useful insights around conceptual modeling of these production scenarios, helping to inform decisions around which scenario is best suited for which types of environments.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Many-Body Effects in Aqueous Systems: Synergies Between Interaction Analysis Techniques and Force Field Development

Interaction analysis techniques, including the many-body expansion (MBE), symmetry-adapted perturbation theory, and energy decomposition analysis, allow for an intuitive understanding of complex molecular interactions. We review these methods by first providing a historical context for the study of many-body interactions and discussing how nonadditivities emerge from Hamiltonians containing strictly pairwise-additive interactions. We then elaborate on the synergy between these interaction analysis techniques and the development of advanced force fields aimed at accurately reproducing the Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surface. In particular, we focus on ab initio–based force fields that aim to explicitly reproduce many-body terms and are fitted to high-level electronic structure results. These force fields generally incorporate many-body effects through ( a) parameterization of distributed multipoles, ( b) explicit fitting of the MBE, ( c) inclusion of many-atom features in a neural network, and ( d) coarse-graining of many-body terms into an effective two-body term. We also discuss the emerging use of the MBE to improve the accuracy and speed of ab initio molecular dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

An analysis of the hybrid internal mass modeling approach in EnergyPlus

Accurate simulation of building system dynamics is particularly important for understanding building energy flexibility. Among all dynamics in a building, a zone temperature’s variation is especially important, as it significantly affects a building’s electricity load profile when its heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) system is controlled with on/off cycles or setpoint reset strategies. To accurately simulate a zone temperature’s dynamics, internal mass needs to be modeled carefully. In this paper, we compare the two internal mass modeling approaches provided by EnergyPlus, i.e., internal mass object and zone air capacitance multiplier, to better understand their impacts on zone temperature simulation. Real building zone temperature dynamic data from small- and medium-sized office buildings are analyzed and compared with simulated data. In particular, we illustrate the effectiveness of a hybrid method of the two EnergyPlus modeling approaches, which yields more realistic zone temperature dynamics, especially when the zone is conditioned with heat pump systems with on/off cycling.

Chen, Zhelun↗