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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

Microphysical Sensitivity of Superparameterized Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States Due to Feedbacks on Large-Scale Circulation

Superparameterized (SP) global climate models have been shown to better simulate various features of precipitation relative to conventional models, including its diurnal cycle as well as its extremes. While various studies have focused on the effect of differing microphysics parameterizations on precipitation within limited-area cloud-resolving models, we examine here the effect on contiguous U.S. (CONUS) extremes in a global SP model. We vary the number of predicted moments for hydrometeor distributions, the character of the rimed ice species, and the representation of raindrop self-collection and breakup. Using a likelihood ratio test and accounting for the effects of multiple hypothesis testing, we find that there are some regional differences, particularly during spring and summer in the Southwest and the Midwest, in both the current climate and a warmer climate with uniformly increased sea surface temperatures. These differences are most statistically significant and widespread when the number of moments is changed. To determine whether these results are due to (fast) local effects of the different microphysics or the (slower) ensuing feedback on the large-scale atmospheric circulation, we run a series of short, 5-day simulations initialized from reanalysis data. We find that the differences largely disappear in these runs and therefore infer that the different parameterizations impact precipitation extremes indirectly via the large-scale circulation. Finally, we compare the present-day results with hourly rain gauge data and find that SP underestimates extremes relative to observations regardless of which microphysics scheme is used given a fixed model configuration and resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

"Sintering" Models and In-Situ Experiments: Data Assimilation for Microstructure Prediction in SLS Additive Manufacturing of Nylon Components

Selective laser sintering methods are workhorses for additively manufacturing polymer-based components. The ease of rapid prototyping also means it is easy to produce illicit components. It is necessary to have a data-calibrated in-situ physical model of the build process in order to predict expected and defective microstructure characteristics that inform component provenance. Toward this end, sintering models are calibrated and characteristics such as component defects are explored. This is accomplished by assimilating multiple data streams, imaging analysis, and computational model predictions in an adaptive Bayesian parameter estimation algorithm. From these data sources, along with a phase-field model, bulk porosity distributions are inferred. Model parameters are constrained to physically-relevant search directions by sensitivity analysis, and then matched to predictions using adaptive sampling. Using this feedback loop, data-constrained estimates of sintering model parameters along with uncertainty bounds are obtained.

3D printing, Additive Manufacturing, polymer, sint↗

Geocoding of AIRSAR/TOPSAR SAR Data

It has been demonstrated and recognized that radar interferometry is a promising method for the determination of digital elevation information and terrain slope from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. An important application of Interferometric SAR (InSAR) data in areas with topographic variations is that the derived elevation and slope can be directly used for the absolute radiometric calibration of the amplitude SAR data as well as for scattering mechanisms analysis. On the other hand polarimetric SAR data has long been recognized as permitting a more complete inference of natural surfaces than a single channel radar system. In fact, imaging polarimetry provides the measurement of the amplitude and relative phase of all transmit and receive polarizations. On board the NASA DC-8 aircraft, NASA/JPL operates the multifrequency (P, L and C bands) multipolarimetric radar AIRSAR. The TOPSAR, a special mode of the AIRSAR system, is able to collect single-pass interferometric C- and/or L-band VV polarized data. A possible configuration of the AIRSAR/TOPSAR system is to acquire single-pass interferometric data at C-band VV polarization and polarimetric radar data at the two other lower frequencies. The advantage of this system configuration is to get digital topography information at the same time the radar data is collected. The digital elevation information can therefore be used to correctly calibrate the SAR data. This step is directly included in the new AIRSAR Integrated Processor. This processor uses a modification of the full motion compensation algorithm described by Madsen et al. (1993). However, the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with the additional products such as local incidence angle map, and the SAR data are in a geometry which is not convenient, since especially DEMs must be referred to a specific cartographic reference system. Furthermore, geocoding of SAR data is important for multisensor and/or multitemporal purposes. In this paper, a procedure to geocode the new AIRSAR/TOPSAR data is presented. As an example an AIRSAR/TOPSAR image acquired in 1994 is geocoded and evaluated in terms of geometric accuracy.

Holecz, Francesco↗

AI-driven Neutrino Beam Diagnostics for Next-Generation Neutrino Experiments

The accelerator-driven beam uncertainty limits oscillation measurements in long-baseline neutrino experiments. Spill-resolved beam diagnostics and real-time inference are necessary to address these neutrino flux systematics. As such, we present a machine-learning-based beam monitoring framework developed and validated using data from the T2K experiment. Our approach uses downstream, spill-by-spill muon monitor observables to predict upstream parameters such as proton beam position and width. We achieve high predictive accuracy on nominal runs, demonstrating robust baseline performance whether the model is trained on stable runs or systematically varied conditions. The framework is designed to be robust against domain shifts, allowing the neural network architectures and inference strategies developed with T2K data to be retrained and validated using LBNF simulations, with the goal of eventual deployment under real LBNF/DUNE operating conditions. This scalable approach to real-time beam inference offers a pathway toward reducing flux systematics for next-generation neutrino experiments such as DUNE.

Aney, Noah [Fermilab; U. Chicago (main)]↗

Quantitative analysis of geomorphic processes using satellite image data at different scales

When aerial and satellite photographs and images are used in the quantitative analysis of geomorphic processes, either through direct observation of active processes or by analysis of landforms resulting from inferred active or dormant processes, a number of limitations in the use of such data must be considered. Active geomorphic processes work at different scales and rates. Therefore, the capability of imaging an active or dormant process depends primarily on the scale of the process and the spatial-resolution characteristic of the imaging system. Scale is an important factor in recording continuous and discontinuous active geomorphic processes, because what is not recorded will not be considered or even suspected in the analysis of orbital images. If the geomorphic process of landform change caused by the process is less than 200 m in x to y dimension, then it will not be recorded. Although the scale factor is critical, in the recording of discontinuous active geomorphic processes, the repeat interval of orbital-image acquisition of a planetary surface also is a consideration in order to capture a recurring short-lived geomorphic process or to record changes caused by either a continuous or a discontinuous geomorphic process.

Williams, R. S., Jr.↗

Comparison of Resource Requirements for a Wind Tunnel Test Designed with Conventional vs. Modern Design of Experiments Methods

The factors that determine data volume requirements in a typical wind tunnel test are identified. It is suggested that productivity in wind tunnel testing can be enhanced by managing the inference error risk associated with evaluating residuals in a response surface modeling experiment. The relationship between minimum data volume requirements and the factors upon which they depend is described and certain simplifications to this relationship are realized when specific model adequacy criteria are adopted. The question of response model residual evaluation is treated and certain practical aspects of response surface modeling are considered, including inference subspace truncation. A wind tunnel test plan developed by using the Modern Design of Experiments illustrates the advantages of an early estimate of data volume requirements. Comparisons are made with a representative One Factor At a Time (OFAT) wind tunnel test matrix developed to evaluate a surface to air missile.

DeLoach, Richard↗

Mars 2020 Reconstructed Aerothermal Environments and Design Margins

The Mars 2020 aeroshell's thermal protection system was nearly identical to the Mars Science Laboratory system that successfully completed its mission for the Curiosity rover's landing in 2012. It was predicted that, like Mars Science Laboratory, the Mars 2020 heatshield would experience boundary layer transition and that the thermal protection system would provide sufficient material thickness margins against the aerothermal environments, even after adding radiative heating that was not included for Mars Science Laboratory. The Mars 2020 flight instrumentation suite included heatshield sensors similar to Mars Science Laboratory and new backshell measurements. A full set of surface pressure and in-depth temperature data were collected during atmospheric entry. This paper provides an initial analysis of the flight data and focuses on the reconstructed total surface heat flux inferred from the measured temperatures. Turbulent boundary layer conditions again were observed on the Mars 2020 heatshield, and the temperatures at all eleven heatshield and six backshell thermocouple in-depth sensor locations were well within system capabilities due to favorable entry conditions and conservative uncertainties. New computational fluid dynamics results on the reconstructed entry trajectory are compared to the measured surface pressures and reconstructed total heat fluxes. The predicted heatshield surface pressures at six locations match the data qualitatively and quantitatively well, as expected. Smooth-wall laminar heating predictions prior to boundary layer transition fall above the reconstructed heating on the heatshield. After the observed boundary layer transition time, total heat flux based on algebraic turbulence model calculations generally match the heat flux trends relative to one another. The convective heat flux was predicted to constitute the majority of the total heating. On the backshell, smooth-wall laminar total heat flux predictions generally exceed the reconstructed total heating at six locations. At each of these locations, it is estimated that radiative heating provided almost all of the total heating. The Mars 2020 as-flown aerothermal environments were well below the design levels for all measurement locations due to conservative design assumptions and a stressing design trajectory.

Mars 2020↗

Mars 2020 Reconstructed Aerothermal Environments and Design Margins

The Mars 2020 aeroshell's thermal protection system was nearly identical to the Mars Science Laboratory system that successfully completed its mission for the Curiosity rover's landing in 2012. It was predicted that, like Mars Science Laboratory, the Mars 2020 heatshield would experience boundary layer transition and that the thermal protection system would provide sufficient material thickness margins against the aerothermal environments, even after adding radiative heating that was not included for Mars Science Laboratory. The Mars 2020 flight instrumentation suite included heatshield sensors similar to Mars Science Laboratory and new backshell measurements. A full set of surface pressure and in-depth temperature data were collected during atmospheric entry. This paper provides an initial analysis of the flight data and focuses on the reconstructed total surface heat flux inferred from the measured temperatures. Turbulent boundary layer conditions again were observed on the Mars 2020 heatshield, and the temperatures at all eleven heatshield and six backshell thermocouple in-depth sensor locations were well within system capabilities due to favorable entry conditions and conservative uncertainties. New computational fluid dynamics results on the reconstructed entry trajectory are compared to the measured surface pressures and reconstructed total heat fluxes. The predicted heatshield surface pressures at six locations match the data qualitatively and quantitatively well, as expected. Smooth-wall laminar heating predictions prior to boundary layer transition fall above the reconstructed heating on the heatshield. After the observed boundary layer transition time, total heat flux based on algebraic turbulence model calculations generally match the heat flux trends relative to one another. The convective heat flux was predicted to constitute the majority of the total heating. On the backshell, smooth-wall laminar total heat flux predictions generally exceed the reconstructed total heating at six locations. At each of these locations, it is estimated that radiative heating provided almost all of the total heating. The Mars 2020 as-flown aerothermal environments were well below the design levels for all measurement locations due to conservative design assumptions and a stressing design trajectory.

Mars 2020↗

Vertical profiles of heating derived from IR-based precipitation estimates during FGGE SOP-1

This paper examines a technique for retrieving from geostationary IR data the vertical profiles of heating and cooling due to moist diabatic processes. First, GOES IR imagery is used to estimate precipitation fields which are independent of fields inferred from residuals in heat budget analysis based on the FGGE level III-b data. Vertical distributions of the associated heating are then obtained using thermodynamic data from the level III-b analysis, one-dimensional cloud models, and the satellite-estimated precipitation. The technique was applied to infer heating in the South Pacific convergence zone during a portion of FGEE SOP-1, and the results were compared with heat-budget calculations made using the ECMWF analyses.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Understanding protein-complex assembly through grand canonical maximum entropy modeling

Inside a cell, heterotypic proteins assemble in inhomogeneous, crowded systems where the abundance of these proteins vary with cell types. While some protein complexes form putative structures that can be visualized with imaging, there are far more protein complexes that are yet to be solved because of their dynamic associations with one another. Nevertheless, it is possible to infer these protein complexes through a physical model. However, it is often not clear to physicists what kind of data from biology is necessary for such a modeling endeavor. Here, we aim to model these clusters of coarse-grained protein assemblies from multiple subunits through the constraints of interactions among the subunits and the chemical potential of each subunit. We obtained the constraints on the interactions among subunits from the known protein structures. We inferred the chemical potential that dictates the particle number distribution of each protein subunit from the knowledge of protein abundance from experimental data. Guided by the maximum entropy principle, we formulated an inverse statistical mechanical method to infer the distribution of particle numbers from the data of protein abundance as chemical potentials for a grand canonical multicomponent mixture. Using grand canonical Monte Carlo simulations, we captured a distribution of high-order clusters in a protein complex of succinate dehydrogenase with four known subunits. The complexity of hierarchical clusters varies with the relative protein abundance of each subunit in distinctive cell types such as lung, heart, and brain. When the crowding content increases, we observed that crowding stabilizes emergent clusters that do not exist in dilute conditions. We, therefore, proposed a testable hypothesis that the hierarchical complexity of protein clusters on a molecular scale is a plausible biomarker of predicting the phenotypes of a cell.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of the Assimilated Ozone in the UTLS to Model and Data Selection Changes

This presentation will discuss the sensitivity of assimilated ozone fields in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) to a number of factors, focusing mainly on aspects of data selection and the prediction model. This is important, because assimilation represents an attempt to construct our best estimates of the true ozone field; however, inaccuracies in the UTLS ozone distribution translate into an uncertainty in factors such as the calculated radiative forcing of climate or the inferred stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone. The 3D ozone data assimilation system, from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), combines observations of total ozone column and stratospheric profiles with predictions from an off-line, parameterized chemistry and transport model (pCTM) to produce six-hourly, global analyses. The first experiments discussed assimilate ozone retrievals from the Earth-Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EPTOMS) and stratospheric profiles from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument. The SBUV/2 ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution, with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone profiles in the UTLS region are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. Sensitivity studies have been conducted to examine the responses to TOMS and SBUV/2 data selection, modifications of the forecast and observation error covariance models, and the model formulation (turning off chemistry or using different wind analyses in the pCTM). The second set of experiments includes an additional data type: ozone retrieved from infrared limb-emission by MIPAS on Envisat. These data offer not only improved vertical resolution in the stratosphere, but also give measurements in the polar night. Comparisons of the assimilated ozone fields from both sets of experiments with independent observations, primarily ozone sondes, are used to determine the impact of each of these changes. It is shown that many of the changes have a significant impact on the UTLS ozone estimates. Implications for interpretation of STE and radiative forcing of climate are discussed.

Pawson, Steven↗

Driving Next-Generation Workflows from the Data Plane

We observe the emergence of a new generation of scientific workflows that process data produced at a sustained rate by scientific instruments and large scale numerical simulations. This data is consumed by multiple analysis, visualization, or Machine Learning components not only to enable inference and justify the scientific program, but also to monitor and steer the evolution of these experiments. In such workflows, moving intermediate data efficiently is key to performance, more than efficiently scheduling computational tasks. However, most traditional workflow management systems focus on optimizing task scheduling and then deal with data management, assuming a “move little, compute for long” model, which makes them unfit to the efficient management of this new generation of workflows. Therefore, we advocate for a new way to manage scientific workflows. We propose to consider an efficiently and independently managed data plane that can store and stream data. Workflows compute components, in the application plane can then interact with the data plane, abstracted from complexities of data management. Then, the role of a workflow management system would become that of a control plane that allows users to connect services together to execute the workflow and manages connections between the application and data planes. In this position paper, we characterize several next-generation workflow motifs and describe how their interaction with the data plane is a challenge to traditional workflow management systems. Then, we express a set of requirements that a workflow management system should meet to efficiently manage next-generation workflows at different scales. Based on these requirements, we expose our vision of driving next-generation workflows from the data plane and list remaining open challenges.

Suter, Fred↗

Analyzing inference workloads for spatiotemporal modeling

Ensuring power grid resiliency, forecasting climate conditions, and optimization of transportation infrastructure are some of the many application areas where data is collected in both space and time. Spatiotemporal modeling is about modeling those patterns for forecasting future trends and carrying out critical decision-making by leveraging machine learning/deep learning. Once trained offline, field deployment of trained models for near real-time inference could be challenging because performance can vary significantly depending on the environment, available compute resources and tolerance to ambiguity in results. Users deploying spatiotemporal models for solving complex problems can benefit from analytical studies considering a plethora of system adaptations to understand the associated performance-quality trade-offs. To facilitate the co-design of next-generation hardware architectures for field deployment of trained models, it is critical to characterize the workloads of these deep learning (DL) applications during inference and assess their computational patterns at different levels of the execution stack. In this paper, we develop several variants of deep learning applications that use spatiotemporal data from dynamical systems. We study the associated computational patterns for inference workloads at different levels, considering relevant models (Long short-term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network and Spatio-Temporal Graph Convolution Network), DL frameworks (Tensorflow and PyTorch), precision (FP16, FP32, AMP, INT16 and INT8), inference runtime (ONNX and AI Template), post-training quantization (TensorRT) and platforms (Nvidia DGX A100 and Sambanova SN10 RDU). Overall, our findings indicate that although there is potential in mixed-precision models and post-training quantization for spatiotemporal modeling, extracting efficiency from contemporary GPU systems might be challenging. Instead, co-designing custom accelerators by leveraging optimized High Level Synthesis frameworks (such as SODA High-Level Synthesizer for customized FPGA/ASIC targets) can make workload-specific adjustments to enhance the efficiency.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mars surface properties observed by earth-based radar at 70-, 12.5-, and 3.8-cm wavelengths

In the present paper, the results are summarized of a study aimed at determining the small-scale surface properties of Mars (for the Viking project) from a thorough review of all available Martian radar data for the 1973 opposition. Analysis of the quasi-specular echo component showed changes in apparent reflectivity of at least 5 to 1. If attributed entirely to variations in surface material, these correspond to dielectric constants between 1.6 and 4.0. Values of rms surface slope on 1- to 100-m scales range from as low as 0.5 degrees in tablelands near Valles Marineris to more than 3.0 degrees in certain other areas. There is a weak correlation between the small-scale surface characteristics inferred from radar and those inferred from Mariner 9 images and other remote-sensing data sets.

Simpson, R. A.↗

Simulation and Modeling of Hypersonic Turbulent Boundary Layers Subject to Favorable Pressure Gradients due to Streamline Curvature

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of favorable-pressure-gradient turbulent boundary layers are presented for a nominal freestream Mach number of 5, with the objective of assessing the limitations of the currently available Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. The favorable pressure gradient is induced by the streamwise curvature of the two-dimensional, planar, convex measurement surface used during experiments at the Texas A&M University. The DNS data shows good comparison with the measured velocity profiles, strain rates, and some, but not all, of the Reynolds-stress components. The discrepancies between the predicted and the measured wall-normal as well as shear stress components are primarily attributed to the lower than actual values inferred from typical PIV measurements of turbulent boundary layers. The DNS data shows a zero or slightly negative Reynolds shear stress in the outer part of the boundary-layer, which is indicative of the decaying turbulent motion under a strong favorable pressure gradient. The DNS data is also compared with the results of RANS computations based on commonly used zero, one, and two equation eddy-viscosity models. The RANS models yield reasonable comparisons with the DNS-based skin friction under zero and weak pressure gradients, but significant discrepancies under a strong pressure gradient. The k-w SST model provided the best overall predictions of skin friction, except in the region where the flow transitions from a favorable to an adverse pressure gradient. While the RANS models examined herein also give good predictions of the Reynolds shear stress under a sufficiently weak pressure gradient, none of those models are able to appropriately capture the reduction in the Reynolds stresses when the flow was subjected to a strong pressure gradient. An a priori assessment of the turbulent heat-flux prediction based on the assumption of a constant turbulent Prandtl number with the DNS data shows that while the constant turbulent Prandtl number model is effective in predicting the wall-normal component of turbulent heat flux, it does not capture the turbulent heat transfer in the streamwise direction for all the pressure gradient cases. The failure of the constant turbulent Prandtl number model highlights a requirement for more advanced models of the turbulent heat flux.

turbulent boundary layers↗

Inferring Viral Transmission Time from Phylogenies for Known Transmission Pairs

When the time of an HIV transmission event is unknown, methods to identify it from virus genetic data can reveal the circumstances that enable transmission. We developed a single-parameter Markov model to infer transmission time from an HIV phylogeny constructed of multiple virus sequences from people in a transmission pair. Our method finds the statistical support for transmission occurring in different possible time slices. We compared our time-slice model results to previously described methods: a tree-based logical transmission interval, a simple parsimony-like rules-based method, and a more complex coalescent model. Across simulations with multiple transmitted lineages, different transmission times relative to the source’s infection, and different sampling times relative to transmission, we found that overall our time-slice model provided accurate and narrower estimates of the time of transmission. We also identified situations when transmission time or direction was difficult to estimate by any method, particularly when transmission occurred long after the source was infected and when sampling occurred long after transmission. Applying our model to real HIV transmission pairs showed some agreement with facts known from the case investigations. We also found, however, that uncertainty on the inferred transmission time was driven more by uncertainty from time calibration of the phylogeny than from the model inference itself. Encouragingly, comparable performance of the Markov time-slice model and the coalescent model—which make use of different information within a tree—suggests that a new method remains to be described that will make full use of the topology and node times for improved transmission time inference.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Gene co-expression network analysis in zebrafish reveals chemical class specific modules

Zebrafish is a popular animal model used for high-throughput screening of chemical hazards, however, investigations of transcriptomic mechanisms of toxicity are still needed. Here, our goal was to identify genes and biological pathways that Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor 2 (AHR2) Activators and flame retardant chemicals (FRCs) alter in developing zebrafish. Taking advantage of a compendium of phenotypically-anchored RNA sequencing data collected from 48-h post fertilization (hpf) zebrafish, we inferred a co-expression network that grouped genes based on their transcriptional response. Genes responding to the FRCs and AHR2 Activators localized to distinct regions of the network, with FRCs inducing a broader response related to neurobehavior. AHR2 Activators centered in one region related to chemical stress responses. We also discovered several highly co-expressed genes in this module, including cyp1a, and we subsequently show that these genes are definitively within the AHR2 signaling pathway. Systematic removal of the two chemical types from the data, and analysis of network changes identified neurogenesis associated with FRCs, and regulation of vascular development associated with both chemical classes. We also identified highly connected genes responding specifically to each class that are potential biomarkers of exposure. Overall, we created the first zebrafish chemical-specific gene co-expression network illuminating how chemicals alter the transcriptome relative to each other. In addition to our conclusions regarding FRCs and AHR2 Activators, our network can be leveraged by other studies investigating chemical mechanisms of toxicity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of U 238 ( n , n ' γ ) cross section data and their impact on reaction models

A better knowledge of (n,xn) reaction cross sections is important for both reaction modeling and energy applications. This article focuses on inelastic scattering of neutrons off 238 U for which improvements are needed to better constrain evaluations and solve inconsistencies in nuclear power reactor calculations. A new precise measurement of (n,xnγ) reaction cross sections on 238 U has been performed at the GELINA (Geel Electron LINear Accelerator) neutron facility operated by EC-JRC-Geel (Belgium) with the GRAPhEME (GeRmanium array for Actinides PrEcise MEasurements) setup. The prompt γ-ray spectroscopy method coupled to time-of-flight measurements is used to extract (n,xnγ) cross section values which can be further combined to infer the total neutron inelastic scattering cross section. Cross section data for 18 γ transitions (five never measured before) are presented and compared to the data in the literature. Here, emphasis is especially given to the uncertainty determination to produce partial cross section data as accurate as possible. Due to intrinsic limitations of the experimental method, the use of additional nuclear structure information coupled with theoretical modeling is required to determine the total (n, n') cross section over the whole neutron energy range. We have investigated modeling aspects of the 238 U(n,n'γ) cross sections related to the description of compound nucleus and preequilibirum mechanisms as well as the discrete part of nuclear structure. Through comparison between experimental and calculated (n,n'γ) cross sections, we pinpoint inaccuracies in the description of specific reaction mechanisms and challenge recently implemented models. This helps improving the whole modeling of the (n, n') reaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗