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DOE OSTI2023

Renewable electricity capacity planning with uncertainty at multiple scales

Abstract We formulate and compare optimization models of investment in renewable generation using a suite of social planning models that compute optimal generation capacity investments for a hydro-dominated electricity system where inflow uncertainty results in a risk of energy shortage. The models optimize the expected cost of capacity expansion and operation allowing for investments in hydro, geothermal, solar, wind, and thermal plant, as well as battery storage for smoothing load profiles. A novel feature is the integration of uncertain seasonal hydroelectric energy supply and short-term variability in renewable supply in a two-stage stochastic programming framework. The models are applied to data from the New Zealand electricity system and used to estimate the costs of moving to a 100% renewable electricity system by 2035. We also explore the outcomes obtained when applying different forms of CO 2 constraint that limit respectively non-renewable capacity, non-renewable generation, and CO 2 emissions on average, almost surely, or in a chance-constrained setting, and show how our models can be used to investigate the merits of a proposed pumped-hydro scheme in New Zealand’s South Island.

Ferris, Michael C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal strategies for a cost-effective and reliable 100% renewable electric grid

This paper explores cost-optimal pathways to 100% renewable power systems for the U.S. building stock. We show that long-duration misalignments of supply and demand, spanning from multi-day to seasonal timescales, present a dominant challenge that must be addressed to meet real-time 100% renewable targets. While long-duration misalignments can be addressed through energy storage, we show that alternative and readily available solutions that are more cost-effective should be considered first. Through a techno-economic analysis, we identify cost-optimal, region-dependent, supply-side, and demand-side strategies that reduce, and in some U.S. regions eliminate, the otherwise substantial capacities and associated costs of long-duration energy storage. Investigated supply-side strategies include optimal mixes of renewable portfolios and oversized generation capacities. Considered demand-side strategies include building load flexibility and building energy efficiency investments. Our results reveal that building energy efficiency measures can reduce long-duration storage requirements at minimum total investment costs. In addition, oversizing and diversifying renewable generation can play a critical role in reducing storage requirements, remaining cost effective even when accounting for curtailed generation. We identify regionally dependent storage cost targets and show that for emerging long-duration energy storage innovations to achieve broad adoption, their costs will need to compete with the decreasing cost of renewables. The findings of this research are particularly important given that most long-duration storage technologies are currently either uneconomical, geologically constrained, or still underdeveloped.

100% renewable↗

DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating Noisy VQE Optimization with Gaussian Processes

Hybrid variational quantum algorithms, which combine a classical optimizer with evaluations on a quantum chip, are the most promising candidates to show quantum advantage on current noisy, intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices. The classical optimizer is required to perform well in the presence of noise in the objective function evaluations, or else it becomes the weakest link in the algorithm. We introduce the use of Gaussian Processes (GP) as surrogate models to reduce the impact of noise and to provide high quality seeds to escape local minima, whether real or noise-induced. We build this as a framework on top of local optimizations, for which we choose Implicit Filtering (ImFil) in this study. ImFil is a state-of-the-art, gradient-free method, which in comparative studies has been shown to outperform on noisy VQE problems. The result is a new method: "GP+ImFil". We show that when noise is present, the GP+ImFil approach finds results closer to the true global minimum in fewer evaluations than standalone ImFil, and that it works particularly well for larger dimensional problems. Using GP to seed local searches in a multi-modal landscape shows mixed results: although it is capable of improving on ImFil standalone, it does not do so consistently and would only be preferred over other, more exhaustive, multistart methods if resources are constrained.

Muller, Juliane↗

NASA NTRS2017

Airborne Trajectory Management (ABTM): A Blueprint for Greater Autonomy in Air Traffic Management

The aviation users of the National Airspace System (NAS) - the airlines, General Aviation (GA), the military and, most recently, operators of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) - are constrained in their operations by the design of the current paradigm for air traffic control (ATC). Some of these constraints include ATC preferred routes, departure fix restrictions and airspace ground delay programs. As a result, most flights cannot operate on their most efficient business trajectories and a great many flights are delayed even getting into the air, which imposes a significant challenge to maintaining efficient flight and network operations. Rather than accepting ever more sophisticated scheduling solutions to accommodate the existing constraints in the airspace, a series of increasingly capable airborne technologies, integrated with planned improvements in the ground system through the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Next Generation Air Traffic Management System (NextGen) programs, could produce much greater operational flexibility for flight path optimization by the aviation system users. These capabilities, described in research coming out of NASA's Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, can maintain or improve operational safety while taking advantage of air and ground NextGen technologies in novel ways. The underlying premise is that the nation's physical airspace is still abundant and underused, and that the delays and inefficient flight operations resulting from artificial structure in airspace use and procedural constraints on those operations may not be necessary for safe and efficient flight. This article is not an indictment of today's NAS or the people who run it. Indeed, it is an exceptional achievement that Air Traffic Management (ATM) - the complex human/machine conglomeration of communications, navigation and surveillance equipment and the rules and procedures for controlling traffic in the airspace - has both the capacity and enables the degree of efficiency in air travel that it does. But it is also true that sixty years of the "radar religion" (i.e., reliance on radar-based command and control) has produced several generations of ATM system operators and researchers who believe that introducing automation within the existing functional structure of ATM is the only way to "modernize" the system. Even NextGen, which began as a proposal for "transformational" change in the way ATC is performed, has morphed over the last decade and a half to become just the inclusion of Global Positioning System (GPS) for navigation, Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) for surveillance, and Data Communications (Data Comm) for communications, while still operating in rigidly structured airspace with human controllers being responsible for separation and traffic flow management (TFM) within defined sectors of airspace, using the same horizontal separation standards that have been in use since raw primary radar was introduced in the 1950s. No system as massive as the current NAS ATM can be replaced with a better system while simultaneously meeting the transportation and other aviation needs of the nation. A new generation of more flexible operations must emerge and yet coexist in harmony with the current operation (i.e., share the same airspace without segregation), thereby enabling a long-term transformation to take place in the way increasing numbers of flights are handled. Market forces will be the ultimate driver of this transformation, and investment realities mandate that real benefits must accrue to the first operators to adopt these new capabilities. In fact, the kinds of missions envisioned in the emerging world of UAS operations, unachievable under conventional ATM, demand that this transformation take place. Airborne Trajectory Management (ABTM) is proposed as a series of transformational steps leading to vastly increased flexibility in flight operations and capacity in the airspace to accommodate many varied airspace uses while improving safety. As will be described, ABTM enables the gradual emergence of a new paradigm for user-based trajectory management in ATM that brings tangible benefits to equipped operators at every step while leveraging the air and ground investments of NextGen. There are five steps in this ABTM transformation.1 NASA has extensively studied the first and last of these steps, and a roadmap of increasing capabilities and benefits is proposed for bridging between these operational concepts.

Cotton, William B.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven Kinetic Reaction Networks for Separation Chemistry

Understanding complex, multistep chemical reactions at the molecular level is a major challenge whose solution would greatly benefit the design and optimization of numerous chemical processes. The separation of rare-earth (4f) and actinide (5f) elements is an example where improving our chemical understanding is important for designing and optimizing new chemistries, even with a limited number of observations. Here, in this work, we leverage data-driven artificial intelligence and machine-learning approaches to develop kinetic reaction networks that describe the liquid–liquid extraction mechanism of uranium using N,N-di-2-ethylhexyl-isobutyramide (DEHiBA). Specifically, we compare and contrast the properties of two classes of models: (1) purely data-driven models that are regularized using chemistry-agnostic, L1 regression and (2) chemistry-informed models that are regularized using relative reaction energies provided by quantum mechanical calculations. We observe that purely data-driven models are unbiased, simple, and accurate in their predictions of experimental measurements when provided with sufficient data but are difficult to fully constrain and interpret. In contrast, chemistry-informed models exhibit significantly improved chemical interpretability and consistency, providing a detailed description of the separation process while achieving high accuracy through ensemble averaging. Overall, the dominant species predicted to be extracted into the organic phase is UO 2 (NO 3 ) 2 (DEHiBA) 2 , agreeing with experimental slope analysis, thermodynamic modeling, EXAFS, and crystal structures. This work demonstrates that leveraging the fundamental structure of the problem can lead to efficient learning schemes that provide both accurate predictions and chemical insights at a low computational cost.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2011

In Situ Surface Characterization

Operation of in situ space assets, such as rovers and landers, requires operators to acquire a thorough understanding of the environment surrounding the spacecraft. The following programs help with that understanding by providing higher-level information characterizing the surface, which is not immediately obvious by just looking at the XYZ terrain data. This software suite covers three primary programs: marsuvw, marsrough, and marsslope, and two secondary programs, which together use XYZ data derived from in situ stereo imagery to characterize the surface by determining surface normal, surface roughness, and various aspects of local slope, respectively. These programs all use the Planetary Image Geometry (PIG) library to read mission-specific data files. The programs themselves are completely multimission; all mission dependencies are handled by PIG. The input data consists of images containing XYZ locations as derived by, e.g., marsxyz. The marsuvw program determines surface normals from XYZ data by gathering XYZ points from an area around each pixel and fitting a plane to those points. Outliers are rejected, and various consistency checks are applied. The result shows the orientation of the local surface at each point as a unit vector. The program can be run in two modes: standard, which is typically used for in situ arm work, and slope, which is typically used for rover mobility. The difference is primarily due to optimizations necessary for the larger patch sizes in the slope case. The marsrough program determines surface roughness in a small area around each pixel, which is defined as the maximum peak-to-peak deviation from the plane perpendicular to the surface normal at that pixel. The marsslope program takes a surface normal file as input and derives one of several slope-like outputs from it. The outputs include slope, slope rover direction (a measure of slope radially away from the rover), slope heading, slope magnitude, northerly tilt, and solar energy (compares the slope with the Sun s location at local noon). The marsuvwproj program projects a surface normal onto an arbitrary plane in space, resulting in a normalized 3D vector, which is constrained to lie in the plane. The marsuvwrot program rotates the vectors in a surface normal file, generating a new surface normal file. It also can change coordinate systems for an existing surface normal file. While the algorithms behind this suite are not particularly unique, what makes the programs useful is their integration into the larger in situ image processing system via the PIG library. They work directly with space in situ data, understanding the appropriate image metadata fields and updating them properly. The secondary programs (marsuvwproj, marsuvwrot) were originally developed to deal with anomalous situations on Opportunity and Spirit, respectively, but may have more general applicability.

Deen, Robert G.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Constraining Global Coronal Models with Multiple Independent Observables

Global coronal models seek to produce an accurate physical representation of the Sun's atmosphere that can be used, for example, to drive space-weather models. Assessing their accuracy is a complex task, and there are multiple observational pathways to provide constraints and tune model parameters. Here, we combine several such independent constraints, defining a model-agnostic framework for standardized comparison. We require models to predict the distribution of coronal holes at the photosphere, and neutral line topology at the model's outer boundary. We compare these predictions to extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) observations of coronal hole locations, white-light Carrington maps of the streamer belt, and the magnetic sector structure measured in situ by Parker Solar Probe and 1 au spacecraft. We study these metrics for potential field source surface (PFSS) models as a function of source surface height and magnetogram choice, as well as comparing to the more physical Wang–Sheeley–Arge (WSA) and the Magnetohydrodynamic Algorithm outside a Sphere (MAS) models. We find that simultaneous optimization of PFSS models to all three metrics is not currently possible, implying a trade-off between the quality of representation of coronal holes and streamer belt topology. WSA and MAS results show the additional physics that they include address this by flattening the streamer belt while maintaining coronal hole sizes, with MAS also improving coronal hole representation relative to WSA. We conclude that this framework is highly useful for inter- and intra-model comparisons. Integral to the framework is the standardization of observables required of each model, evaluating different model aspects.

S. T. Badman↗

NASA NTRS2022

Perspective on Satellite-Based Land Data Assimilation to Estimate Water Cycle Components in an Era of Advanced Data Availability and Model Sophistication

The beginning of the 21st century is marked by a rapid growth of land surface satellite data and model sophistication. This offers new opportunities to estimate multiple components of the water cycle via satellite-based land data assimilation (DA) across multiple scales. By resolving more processes in land surface models and by coupling the land, the atmosphere, and other Earth system compartments, the observed information can be propagated to constrain additional unobserved variables. Furthermore, access to more satellite observations enables the direct constraint of more and more components of the water cycle that are of interest to end users. However, the finer level of detail in models and data is also often accompanied by an increase in dimensions, with more state variables, parameters, or boundary conditions to estimate, and more observations to assimilate. This requires advanced DA methods and efficient solutions. One solution is to target specific observations for assimilation based on a sensitivity study or coupling strength analysis, because not all observations are equally effective in improving subsequent forecasts of hydrological variables, weather, agricultural production, or hazards through DA. This paper offers a perspective on current and future land DA development, and suggestions to optimally exploit advances in observing and modeling systems.

Data Assimilation↗

DOE OSTI2020

Seismic Isolation of Major Advanced Reactor Systems for Economic Improvement and Safety Assurance

Advanced reactor concepts currently under development in the United States [e.g., the High-Temperature Gas Reactor (HTGR) of X-Energy and the Molten Chloride Fast Reactor (MCFR) of TerraPower] are striving to improve the economics of nuclear power primarily by using passively and ‘walk-away’ safe technologies in the reactor. The recently published report, ‘Future of Nuclear Energy in a Carbon-Constrained World’ by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Institute (MIT EI) has shown that a significant contributor to the capital cost of NPPs is the ‘civil works’ i.e., the construction of the balance of plant (BoP: all SSCs except those involved in power generation, e.g., reactor vessel) such as the buildings, containment dome, foundation, etc., which amount to almost half of the overnight capital cost. The report suggests that using advanced construction technologies such as seismic isolation and high-performance concrete to significantly reduce the capital costs of advanced reactors. This report demonstrates the application of two cost-cutting solutions on advanced reactor designs that are currently under development. These solutions include, (1) seismic base isolation, and (2) risk- and cost-based seismic design optimization including seismic isolation of individual components.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Harnessing Peptide Binding to Capture and Reclaim Phosphate

With rising consumer demands, society is tapping into wastewater as an innovative source to recycle depleting resources. Novel reclamation technologies have been recently explored for this purpose, including several that optimize natural biological processes for targeted reclamation. However, this emerging field has a noticeable dearth of synthetic material technologies that are programmed to capture, release, and recycle specified targets; and of the novel materials that do exist, synthetic platforms incorporating biologically inspired mechanisms are rare. We present here a prototype of a materials platform utilizing peptide amphiphiles that has been molecularly engineered to sequester, release, and reclaim phosphate through a stimuli-responsive pH trigger, exploiting a protein-inspired binding mechanism that is incorporated directly into the self-assembled material network. This material is able to harvest and controllably release phosphate for multiple cycles of reuse, and it is selective over nitrate and nitrite. We have determined by simulations that the binding conformation of the peptide becomes constrained in the dense micelle corona at high pH such that phosphate is expelled when it otherwise would be preferentially bound. However, at neutral pH, this dense structure conversely employs multichain binding to further stabilize phosphate when it would otherwise be unbound, opening opportunities for higher-order conformational binding design to be engineered into this controllably packed corona. With this work, we are pioneering a new platform to be readily altered to capture other valuable targets, presenting a new class of capture and release materials for recycling resources on the nanoscale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

BeyondPlanck I. Global Bayesian analysis of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument data

We describe the BeyondPlanck project in terms of motivation, methodology and main products, and provide a guide to a set of companion papers that describe each result in fuller detail. Building directly on experience from ESA's Planck mission, we implement a complete end-to-end Bayesian analysis framework for the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) observations. The primary product is a joint posterior distribution P(omega|d), where omega represents the set of all free instrumental (gain, correlated noise, bandpass etc.), astrophysical (synchrotron, free-free, thermal dust emission etc.), and cosmological (CMB map, power spectrum etc.) parameters. Some notable advantages of this approach are seamless end-to-end propagation of uncertainties; accurate modeling of both astrophysical and instrumental effects in the most natural basis for each uncertain quantity; optimized computational costs with little or no need for intermediate human interaction between various analysis steps; and a complete overview of the entire analysis process within one single framework. As a practical demonstration of this framework, we focus in particular on low-l CMB polarization reconstruction, paying special attention to the LFI 44 GHz channel. We find evidence of significant residual systematic effects that are still not accounted for in the current processing, but must be addressed in future work. These include a break-down of the 1/f correlated noise model at 30 and 44 GHz, and scan-aligned stripes in the Southern Galactic hemisphere at 44 GHz. On the Northern hemisphere, however, we find that all results are consistent with the LCDM model, and we constrain the reionization optical depth to tau = 0.067 +/- 0.016, with a low-resolution chi-squared probability-to-exceed of 16%. The marginal CMB dipole amplitude is 3359.5 +/- 1.9 uK. (Abridged.)

Andersen, KJ↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Hardware and Software Co-design Framework for Energy Efficient Neuromorphic Systems

Neuromorphic systems can be realized by a variety of algorithms and architectures. A common understanding is that spiking neuromorphic designs, which encode information into spatio-temporal spiking events, are both a biologically-accurate and efficient way of processing information. However, representing the information through timing relationships induces sophisticated circuit designs in traditional CMOS-based implementations. In recent years, high-capacity resistive memory (RRAM, aka, memristor) has demonstrated great potential in mimicking synaptic behaviors. Several RRAM-based spiking neuromorphic designs exist, most of which focus on rate coding schemes. These designs simplify circuit implementations of neuron models and explore challenges such as unsatisfactory speed, resolution, and performance. As an alternative, we will explore temporal coding spiking neuromorphic systems that encode information as the relative timing of neuron activations (spikes), which have been proven to be more adaptive and energy-efficient. Developing a neuromorphic system for spiking neural network (SNN) inference and online training, however, faces some major technical challenges: (1) It lacks circuit implementation support for temporal-coding SNN to achieve satisfying power efficiency and accuracy; (2) Although existing research works have investigated memristive synapse and neuron designs for spike-timing-dependent plasticity, the non-ideal conditions in implementation, such as device variations and signal degradation, degrade online learning accuracy of large scale systems; and (3) Non-optimized, inter-layer data traffic in SNNs, leads to unnecessary data communication costs. In this project, we plan to address these challenges by a hardware and software co-design framework that incorporates solutions at the circuit, architecture, and algorithm levels. At the circuit-level, we will elaborate on the in-situ SNN processing element designs for supporting both inference and online training modes. Variation-aware schemes will be studied to improve reliability. At the architecture level, we propose a pipelined, asynchronous architecture to retain the timing resolution of spikes. At the algorithm level, we will investigate an innovative SNN training algorithm for enabling activation sparsification and reducing unnecessary data communication costs. This neuromorphic system will provide an effective solution to real-life energy-constrained applications and significantly contribute to the exploration of next-generation high-performance computing systems under the DOE context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1996

Optical amplifiers for coherent lidar

We examine application of optical amplification to coherent lidar for the case of a weak return signal (a number of quanta of the return optical field close to unity). We consider the option that has been explored to date, namely, incorporation of an optical amplifier operated in a linear manner located after reception of the signal and immediately prior to heterodyning and photodetection. We also consider alternative strategies where the coherent interaction, the nonlinear processes, and the amplification are not necessarily constrained to occur in the manner investigated to date. We include the complications that occur because of mechanisms that occur at the level of a few, or one, quantum excitation. Two factors combine in the work to date that limit the value of the approach. These are: (1) the weak signal tends to require operation of the amplifier in the linear regime where the important advantages of nonlinear optical processing are not accessed, (2) the linear optical amplifier has a -3dB noise figure (SN(out)/SN(in)) that necessarily degrades the signal. Some improvement is gained because the gain provided by the optical amplifier can be used to overcome losses in the heterodyned process and photodetection. The result, however, is that introduction of an optical amplifier in a well optimized coherent lidar system results in, at best, a modest improvement in signal to noise. Some improvement may also be realized on incorporating more optical components in a coherent lidar system for purely practical reasons. For example, more compact, lighter weight, components, more robust alignment, or more rapid processing may be gained. We further find that there remain a number of potentially valuable, but unexplored options offered both by the rapidly expanding base of optical technology and the recent investigation of novel nonlinear coherent interference phenomena occurring at the single quantum excitation level. Key findings are: (1) insertion of linear optical amplifiers in well optimized conventional lidar systems offers modest improvements, at best, (2) the practical advantages of optical amplifiers, especially fiber amplifiers, such as ease of alignment, compactness, efficiency, lightweight, etc., warrant further investigation for coherent lidar, (3) the possibility of more fully optical lidar systems should be explored, (4) advantages gained by use of coherent interference of optical fields at the level of one, or a few, signal quanta should be explored, (5) amplification without inversion, population trapping, and use of electromagnetic induced transparency warrant investigation in connection with coherent lidar, (6) these new findings are probably more applicable to earth related NASA work, although applications to deep space should not be excluded, and (7) our own work in the Ultrafast Laboratory at UAH along some of the above lines of investigation, may be useful.

Fork, Richard↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coupled modeling of wake steering and platform offsets for floating wind arrays

Wake effects are a key challenge in the design and analysis of wind farms. For floating wind farms, the platforms offset under the aerodynamic loading of the turbine and are constrained by mooring systems that can vary significantly in allowable offsets. When considering wake steering, the crosswind offset of the turbine can counteract the lateral deflection of the wake. This work presents a tool to efficiently model the coupled impacts of wake steering and platform offsets for floating wind farms. The tool relies on the frequency-domain wind farm model RAFT and the steady-state wake model FLORIS. A verification with FAST.Farm is presented, then the tool is applied to a simple two-turbine case study. A range of mooring systems with increasing platform offsets and varied yaw misalignment angles are considered while comparing the impact on turbine power. Additional sensitivities to turbine spacing and mooring system orientation are explored. The results show that there is a least-optimal watch circle width for downwind turbine power production that varies with yaw misalignment angle and turbine spacing. Additionally, the turbine offsets under yaw-misaligned conditions vary significantly depending on mooring system orientation relative to the rotor plane, which in turn impacts the optimal misalignment angle. These results highlight the importance of including floating platform offsets and mooring systems in the evaluation of wake steering strategies for floating wind arrays.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transitioning from Stage-III to Stage-IV: cosmology from galaxy×CMB lensing and shear×CMB lensing

ABSTRACT We examine the cosmological constraining power from two cross-correlation probes between galaxy and cosmic microwave background (CMB) surveys: the cross-correlation of lens galaxy density with CMB lensing convergence 〈δgκCMB〉, and source galaxy weak lensing shear with CMB lensing convergence 〈γκCMB〉. These two cross-correlation probes provide an independent cross-check of other large-scale structure constraints and are insensitive to galaxy-only or CMB-only systematic effects. In addition, when combined with other large-scale structure probes, the cross-correlations can break degeneracies in cosmological and nuisance parameters, improving both the precision and robustness of the analysis. In this work, we study how the constraining power of 〈δgκCMB〉 + 〈γκCMB〉 changes from Stage-III (ongoing) to Stage-IV (future) surveys. Given the flexibility in selecting the lens galaxy sample, we also explore systematically the impact on cosmological constraints when we vary the redshift range and magnitude limit of the lens galaxies using mock galaxy catalogs. We find that in our setup, the contribution to cosmological constraints from 〈δgκCMB〉 and 〈γκCMB〉 are comparable in the Stage-III data sets; but in Stage-IV surveys, the noise in 〈δgκCMB〉 becomes subdominant to cosmic variance, preventing 〈δgκCMB〉 to further improve the constraints. This implies that to maximize the cosmological constraints from future 〈δgκCMB〉 + 〈γκCMB〉 analyses, we should focus more on the requirements on 〈γκCMB〉 instead of 〈δgκCMB〉. Furthermore, the selection of the lens sample should be optimized in terms of our ability to characterize its redshift or galaxy bias instead of its number density.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Optimal Control of Traffic Signals for Urban Road Networks

This paper studies the issue of data-driven optimal control design for traffic signals of oversaturated urban road networks. The signal control system based on the store and forward model is generally uncontrollable for which the controllable decomposition is needed. Instead of identifying the unknown parameters like saturation rates and turning ratios, a finite number of measured trajectories can be used to parametrize the system and help directly construct a transformation matrix for Kalman controllable decomposition through the fundamental lemma of J. C. Willems. On top of that, an infinite-horizon linear quadratic regulator (LQR) problem is formulated considering the constraints of green times for traffic signals. The problem can be solved through a two-phase data-driven learning process, where one solves an infinite-horizon unconstrained LQR problem and the other solves a finite-horizon constrained LQR problem. The simulation result shows the theoretical analysis is effective and the proposed data-driven controller can yield desired performance for reducing traffic congestion.

Liu, Tong↗

DOE OSTI2024

EFIT-Prime: Probabilistic and physics-constrained reduced-order neural network model for equilibrium reconstruction in DIII-D

We introduce EFIT-Prime, a novel machine learning surrogate model for EFIT (Equilibrium FIT) that integrates probabilistic and physics-informed methodologies to overcome typical limitations associated with deterministic and ad hoc neural network architectures. EFIT-Prime utilizes a neural architecture search-based deep ensemble for robust uncertainty quantification, providing scalable and efficient neural architectures that comprehensively quantify both data and model uncertainties. Physically informed by the Grad–Shafranov equation, EFIT-Prime applies a constraint on the current density J tor and a smoothness constraint on the first derivative of the poloidal flux, ensuring physically plausible solutions. Furthermore, the spatial location of the diagnostics is explicitly incorporated in the inputs to account for their spatial correlation. Extensive evaluations demonstrate EFIT-Prime's accuracy and robustness across diverse scenarios, most notably showing good generalization on negative-triangularity discharges that were excluded from training. Timing studies indicate an ensemble inference time of 15 ms for predicting a new equilibrium, offering the possibility of plasma control in real-time, if the model is optimized for speed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Shadow energy functionals and potentials in Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics

In Born–Oppenheimer molecular dynamics (BOMD) simulations based on the density functional theory (DFT), the potential energy and the interatomic forces are calculated from an electronic ground state density that is determined by an iterative self-consistent field optimization procedure, which, in practice, never is fully converged. The calculated energies and forces are, therefore, only approximate, which may lead to an unphysical energy drift and instabilities. Here, we discuss an alternative shadow BOMD approach that is based on backward error analysis. Instead of calculating approximate solutions for an underlying exact regular Born–Oppenheimer potential, we do the opposite. Instead, we calculate the exact electron density, energies, and forces, but for an underlying approximate shadow Born–Oppenheimer potential energy surface. In this way, the calculated forces are conservative with respect to the approximate shadow potential and generate accurate molecular trajectories with long-term energy stabilities. We show how such shadow Born–Oppenheimer potentials can be constructed at different levels of accuracy as a function of the integration time step, δt, from the constrained minimization of a sequence of systematically improvable, but approximate, shadow energy density functionals. For each energy functional, there is a corresponding ground state Born–Oppenheimer potential. These pairs of shadow energy functionals and potentials are higher-level generalizations of the original “zeroth-level” shadow energy functionals and potentials used in extended Lagrangian BOMD. The proposed shadow energy functionals and potentials are useful only within this extended dynamical framework, where also the electronic degrees of freedom are propagated as dynamical field variables together with the atomic positions and velocities. The theory is quite general and can be applied to MD simulations using approximate DFT, Hartree–Fock, or semi-empirical methods, as well as to coarse-grained flexible charge models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗