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DOE OSTI2021

Tunable tunnel barriers in a semiconductor via ionization of individual atoms

individual adatoms deposited on an InSb(110) surface. The adatoms can be reproducibly dropped off from the STM tip by voltage pulses, and impact tunneling into the surface by up to ~100×. The spatial extent and magnitude of the tunneling effect are widely tunable by imaging conditions such as bias voltage, set current and photoillumination. We attribute the effect to occupation of a (+/0) charge transition level, and switching of the associated adatom-induced band bending. The effect in STM topographic images is well reproduced by transport modeling of filling and emptying rates as a function of the tip position. STM atomic contrast and tunneling spectra are in good agreement with density functional theory calculations for In adatoms. The adatom ionization effect can extend to distances greater than 50 nm away, which we attribute to the low concentration and low binding energy of the residual donors in the undoped InSb crystal. These studies demonstrate how individual atoms can be used to sensitively control current flow in nanoscale devices.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

The nontrivial effects of annealing on superconducting properties of Nb single crystals

The effect of annealing on the superconducting properties of niobium single crystals was studied using optical, magnetic, and scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) methods. Pieces of the same crystal boule were studied before and after the annealing at 800 ${^\circ}\textrm{C}$, 1400 ${^\circ}\textrm{C}$, and near the melting point of niobium (2477 ${^\circ}\textrm{C}$). The initial samples had a high hydrogen content and low-temperature imaging revealed large hydrides (hundreds of micrometers) appearing below 190 K. The formation of these large precipitates is already completely suppressed by annealing at 800 ${^\circ}\textrm{C}$. However, the overall superconducting properties of the annealed samples did not improve and, in fact, worsened. In particular, the superconducting transition temperature decreased, the upper critical field increased, and the pinning strength increased. In the STM study, the sample was annealed initially at 400 ${^\circ}\textrm{C}$, measured, annealed at 1700 ${^\circ}\textrm{C}$, and measured again. The STM revealed a ‘dirty’ superconducting gap with a significant spatial variation in tunneling conductance after annealing at 400 ${^\circ}\textrm{C}$. The clean gap was recovered after annealing at 1700 ${^\circ}\textrm{C}$. This is likely due to oxygen redistribution near the surface, which is always covered by oxide layers in as-grown crystals. Our results indicate that vacuum annealing at least up to 1400 ${^\circ}\textrm{C}$, while removing a large percentage of hydrogen, introduces additional nanosized defects, likely hydride precipitates, that act as efficient pair-breaking and pinning centers. The dimensionless scattering rate is estimated to have increased from $\Gamma = 0.2$ to about $\Gamma = 0.4$ after annealing at 1400 ${^\circ}\textrm{C}$. These results on single crystals differ drastically from those obtained in polycrystalline bulk niobium (i.e. cut from superconducting radio-frequency cavities), where annealing is known to have a significant positive effect that is attributed to the improvement of the crystalline structure masking the more subtle influence of the hydrides.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Nonlinear saturation and oscillations of collisionless zonal flows

Abstract In homogeneous drift-wave turbulence, zonal flows (ZFs) can be generated via a modulational instability (MI) that either saturates monotonically or leads to oscillations of the ZF energy at the nonlinear stage. This dynamics is often attributed as the predator–prey oscillations induced by ZF collisional damping; however, similar dynamics is also observed in collisionless ZFs, in which case a different mechanism must be involved. Here, we propose a semi-analytic theory that explains the transition between the oscillations and saturation of collisionless ZFs within the quasilinear Hasegawa–Mima model. By analyzing phase-space trajectories of DW quanta (driftons) within the geometrical-optics (GO) approximation, we argue that the parameter that controls this transition is N ∼ γ MI / ω DW , where γ MI is the MI growth rate and ω DW is the linear DW frequency. We argue that at N ≪ 1, ZFs oscillate due to the presence of so-called passing drifton trajectories, and we derive an approximate formula for the ZF amplitude as a function of time in this regime. We also show that at N ≳ 1, the passing trajectories vanish and ZFs saturate monotonically, which can be attributed to phase mixing of higher-order sidebands. A modification of N that accounts for effects beyond the GO limit is also proposed. These analytic results are tested against both quasilinear and fully-nonlinear simulations. They also explain the earlier numerical results by Connaughton et al (2010 J. Fluid Mech. 654 207) and Gallagher et al (2012 Phys. Plasmas 19 122115) and offer a different perspective on what the control parameter actually is that determines the transition from the oscillations to saturation of collisionless ZFs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Production of muonic kaon atoms at high-energy colliders

We develop a framework for the formation of exotic muonic kaon atoms ($K\mu$) in semileptonic $D^{0}$ decays, using the effective weak Hamiltonian, a helicity-based treatment of the leptonic current, and a nonrelativistic bound-state projection. The resulting branching ratio, $\mathrm{BR}(D^{0}\!\to(K\mu )\nu_{\mu})=2.29\times10^{-10}$, is implemented in a ROOT-based code to estimate yields at RHIC, LHC, and STCF. We show quantitatively that $K\mu$ atoms—also produced through coalescence in the quark--gluon plasma (QGP)—provide a sensitive probe of low-momentum primordial muons and early-time electromagnetic radiation, offering complementary constraints in an otherwise unexplored phase space for thermal dilepton and photon emission. Newly estimated dissociation cross sections in detector material indicate that secondary‑vertex reconstruction should be experimentally feasible, allowing clean experimental identification of the atoms. Projected yields from QGP coalescence in LHC and RHIC heavy-ion collisions, and from $D^{0}$ decays in LHC high-luminosity $p+p$ collisions indicate that the first observation of $K\mu$ atoms is within reach. Content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. Article funded by SCOAP3 and published under licence by Chinese Physical Society and the Institute of High Energy Physics of the Chinese Academy of Science and the Institute of Modern Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and IOP Publishing Ltd.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cross-machine comparison of runaway electron generation during tokamak start-up for extrapolation to ITER

A cross-machine comparison of global parameters that determine the runaway electron (RE) generation and loss process during tokamak start-up was carried out with the aim to extrapolate these to ITER. The study found that all considered discharges, also those that do not show signs of RE, are non-thermal at the start, i.e. have a streaming parameter larger than 0.1. During the current ramp-up the electric field, E, remains above the critical value, E c , that allows RE in the plasma. The distinction to be made is not if RE can form but, if sufficient RE can form fast enough such that they are detected or start to dominate the dynamics of the tokamak discharge. The dynamics of the value of E, density and temperature during tokamak are key to the formation of RE. It was found that larger devices operate with E closer to E c , due to their higher temperatures, hence the RE generation is relatively slower. The slower time scales for the formation of RE, estimated to be of the order of 100s of ms in ITER simplifies the development of avoidance schemes. The RE confinement time is also an important determinant of the entire process and is found to increase with the device size. The study also revealed that drift orbit losses, a mechanism often attributed as the main RE loss mechanism during the early tokamak discharge, are actually more difficult to achieve. RE losses might be more likely attributed to RE diffusion due to magnetic turbulence.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Synergistic effects of W–Ta alloys exposed to various ELM-like fusion events

Abstract Recently tungsten alloys have shown capabilities in suppressing morphological changes when exposed to harsh fusion conditions. Morphological changes due to He + and D + ions at high temperatures (1000–2000 K) can lead to easier erosion and sputtering of tungten (W) particles towards quenching the fusion plasma. This study investigated W–3Ta alloy as potential plasma facing materials (PFMs) exposed to different edge-localized mode (ELM)-like energies and ion loadings. Performance of W–3Ta has been tested as a function of ELM-like energies (0.6–1.5 GW m −2 ) and varying He + and D + ion concentrations (100% He + , 50% He + :50% D + ,10% He + :90% D + (similar ELM-like reactor condition), and 100% D + ions). Early-stage fuzz formation and surface pores were observed during 100% He + ion irradiation and mixed ion loadings but not observed during 100% D + ion loadings. Pores decreased in quantity and increased in size with increasing transient heat loading. Grain boundaries acted as trapping sites of helium and deuterium atoms during dual beam ion irradiations, as observed through increased pore size along the grain boundary. Qualitative erosion estimates were measured using witness plates. Increased erosion was observed with increasing D + ion concentration, which is attributed to D supersaturation in the near surface region affecting thermal and mechanical properties. More erosion was observed for W–3Ta samples compared to pure W, evident through large (>10 µ m) cracks on the surface, and an increase in W metal x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy peaks under similar loading conditions. The slight enhancement in erosion is attributed to the slightly decreased thermal properties, ∼10% thermal diffusivity drop, of W–3Ta at high temperatures. The damage threshold was impacted by ion loading, where distinct cracking was observed for 100% He + at a lower heat loading. This matrix study using reactor-like loading supports the need for extensive studies on future W alloy PFMs before selecting one as an alternative.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2017

Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981–2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Department of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. In conclusion, this disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs' responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cyclone Fani: the tug-of-war between regional warming and anthropogenic aerosol effects

Before Cyclone Amphan took place in 2020, Cyclone Fani (May 2019) is the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) since 1991, killing 90 people in eastern India and Bangladesh while causing US$1.81 billion of damages. Fani developed during a period of high concentration of anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB with abnormally high sea surface temperature (SST), thereby presenting an opportunity to understand the compound effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional climate warming on a tropical cyclone. A quantitative attribution analysis was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) run at the convection-permitting (4 km) grid spacing, accompanied by an ensemble of coarser-resolution simulations to quantify the uncertainty. The removal of post-1990 trends in the tropospheric variables and SST from WRF-Chem's initial conditions (IC) and boundary conditions (BC, including the lateral and lower boundary conditions) resulted in a reduction of cyclone precipitation by about 51% during the 5 d of April 28-May 2. The removal of tropospheric warming shows approximately twice as strong an effect on Fani (39% reduction in precipitation) as that of SST warming (22% reduction). When aerosol's direct and indirect effects were removed from the simulations, i.e., no aerosol influence on radiation and cloud microphysics, Fani initially strengthened but later weakened, as measured by geopotential height and precipitation amounts. These results suggest that aerosol and its interaction with the atmosphere acted to mitigate the strengthening effect of anthropogenic warming on Fani, but was not strong enough to entirely counteract it. Although the ensemble of coarser simulations appears to overestimate Cyclone Fani in terms of precipitation, the direction of the effects is in agreement with that obtained from the 4 km simulations. Given the increasing anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB, future attribution studies using more sophisticated dynamical aerosol models on BOB tropical cyclones are urged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant

Abstract Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. Focusing on 132 US federal hydropower plants, in this study we evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower models’ structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections. In particular, instead of relying on one single regression-based hydropower model, we introduce another conceptual reservoir operations-hydropower model in the assessment framework. This multi-model assessment approach allows us to partition uncertainties associated with both climate and hydropower models for better clarity. Results suggest that while at least 70% of the uncertainties at the annual scale and 50% at the seasonal scale can be attributed to the choice of climate models, up to 50% of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of hydropower models, particularly in regions over the western US where the reservoir storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome includes an updated evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-based federal hydropower projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can provide a baseline for understanding future assessments based on CMIP6 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Short-Term Energy and Meteorological Impacts on Thanksgiving CO2 in Salt Lake City

Abstract Long-term, high-frequency atmospheric CO2 measurements at multiple sites in the Salt Lake City (SLC), Utah, reveal that annual and monthly CO2 variability aligns with a priori estimates of emissions from anthropogenic and biological sources. In this study, we investigate whether short-term fluctuations in anthropogenic emissions, as captured in the Vulcan3 dataset for the United States, can be detected in atmospheric CO2 observations. Specifically, we focus on Thanksgiving holidays, when traffic and energy usage patterns differ from the rest of November. Onroad CO2 emissions exhibit a double peak during weekday morning and evening rush hours but remain relatively low on weekends and Thanksgiving. Interestingly, CO2 mole fractions during Thanksgiving were higher than the rest of November at all SLC monitoring sites, particularly from 2008 to 2013. This increase is partially attributed to elevated energy-related emissions — especially residential sources — and meteorological factors such as weak wind speeds, cold temperature, and a low planetary boundary layer height (PBLH). While CO₂ emissions and mole fraction patterns align over time, notable spatial differences exist. For instance, the near-highway site in Murray shows the highest CO₂ mole fractions despite low local emissions, suggesting pollution transport via highways and wind advection. Random Forest model-based SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis reveals that onroad emissions dominate CO2 contributions on weekdays and weekends, while energy-related emissions play a larger role during Thanksgiving, alongside meteorological drivers such as wind speed and PBLH. Across six urban cities, CO2 emissions display a consistent pattern: residential and commercial (onroad) emissions peak during Thanksgiving (weekday) with substantial (minimal) year-to-year variability. These findings highlight that urban CO₂ variability is driven by the combined influence of emissions and meteorology, underscoring the need for integrated mitigation strategies. Additionally, multi-site measurements are essential for accurate source attribution and the development of effective policy interventions. 

Ryoo, Ju-Mee (ORCID:0000000234256296)↗

DOE OSTI2026

An evaluation of air quality in major urban areas of India

Rapid economic growth and burgeoning population have contributed to enhanced levels of PM 2.5 concentrations in urban regions of India. Evaluation of ambient air quality facilitates the assessment of effectiveness of emission control measures and early identification of new sources. This study provides a comprehensive statistical analysis of PM 2.5 concentrations in key urban areas across India, including Delhi, Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad, and several regional centers. Data from 2017 to 2023 was analyzed using trend analysis, cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and geostatistical interpolation to understand spatiotemporal variations and sources. The analysis reveals significant differences in spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentrations with high annual averages in urban regions in Indo-Gangetic plain (82–123 μg m −3 ) and relatively lower concentrations (29–46 μg m −3 ) in southern urban areas of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Delhi state had the highest 24-averaged PM 2.5 concentrations (112 μg m −3 ) followed by urban regions in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal (94 μg m −3 ). Trend analysis from 2017 to 2023 revealed an overall 2.5% decline in site-wide PM2.5 concentrations, with the exception of Ludhiana, which exhibited a consistent annual increase of 10%. Principal component analysis (PCA) attributes 30% of the variance to wintertime emissions, 13% to biomass burning, and 18% to the regional haze in the northern Indo-Gangetic Plain. Different analyses clearly demonstrates the contribution of biomass burning to pollution in Delhi and surrounding cities. Transboundary pollution to Kolkata is likely from the highly polluted region in Indo-Gangetic Plain. Coastal cities of Mumbai and Chennai has relatively lower pollution attributed to the influence of sea breeze dilution, with mostly local contribution and some potential transport from upwind industry clusters. Hyderabad also has local contribution due to high density of vehicular traffic and local small industries. This study shows that mitigation efforts targeting clusters of regions should be undertaken to curb the high PM2.5 pollution. Policy measures should be implemented both at local and the intra-state level to address shared sources and transport of pollution.

Hysplitbacktrajectories↗

DOE OSTI2021

Factors associated with emerging multimodal transportation behavior in the San Francisco Bay Area

Abstract This paper identifies the influence of demographic, local transportation environment, and individual preferences for transportation attributes on multimodal transportation behavior in an urban environment with emergent transportation mode availability. Multimodality is the use of more than one mode of transportation during a given timeframe. Multimodality has been considered a key component of sustainable and efficient transportation systems, as this travel behavior can represent a shift away from personal vehicle use to more sustainable transportation modes, especially in urban environments with diverse transportation systems and emergent shared transportation alternatives (e.g., carsharing, ridehailing, bike sharing). However, it is unclear what factors contribute towards people being more likely to exhibit multimodal transportation behavior in modern urban environments. We assessed commuting behavior based on a survey administered in the San Francisco Bay Area according to whether residents commuted (i) exclusively by vehicle, (ii) by a mix of vehicle and non-vehicle modes, or (iii) exclusively by non-vehicle modes. A classification tree approach identified correlations between commuting classes and demographic variables, preferences for transportation attributes, and location-based information. The characterization of commuting styles could inform regional transportation policy and design that aims to reduce vehicle use by identifying the demographic, preference, and location-based considerations correlated with each commuting style.

McAuliffe Wells, Emily↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving Traditional Registrational Trial End Points: Development and Application of a Desirability of Outcome Ranking End Point for Complicated Urinary Tract Infection Clinical Trials

Abstract Background Traditional end points used in registrational randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) often do not allow for complete interpretation of the full range of potential clinical outcomes. Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is an approach to the design and analysis of clinical trials that incorporates benefits and risks of novel treatment strategies and provides a global assessment of patient experience. Methods Through a multidisciplinary committee of experts in infectious diseases, clinical trial design, drug regulation, and patient experience, we developed a DOOR end point for infectious disease syndromes and demonstrated how this could be applied to 3 registrational drug trials (ZEUS, APEKS-cUTI, and DORI-05) for complicated urinary tract infections (cUTIs). ZEUS compared fosfomycin to piperacillin/tazobactam, APEKS-cUTI compared cefiderocol to imipenem, and DORI-05 compared doripenem to levofloxacin. Using DOOR, we estimated the probability of a more desirable outcome with each investigational antibacterial drug. Results In each RCT, the DOOR distribution was similar and the probability that a patient in the investigational arm would have a more desirable outcome than a patient in the control arm had a 95% confidence interval containing 50%, indicating no significant difference between treatment arms. DOOR facilitated improved understanding of potential trade-offs between clinical efficacy and safety. Partial credit and subgroup analyses also highlight unique attributes of DOOR. Conclusions DOOR can effectively be used in registrational cUTI trials. The DOOR end point presented here can be adapted for other infectious disease syndromes and prospectively incorporated into future clinical trials.

Immunology↗

DOE OSTI2019

Elevated plasma triglycerides and growth rate are early indicators of reproductive status in post-spawning female steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss)

Abstract Many iteroparous fishes spawn after skipping one or more yearly cycles, which impacts recruitment estimates used for fisheries management and conservation. The physiological mechanisms underlying the development of consecutive and skip spawning life histories in fishes are not well understood. In salmonids, lipid energy reserves and/or growth are thought to regulate the initiation of reproductive maturation during a critical period ~1 year prior to spawning. The fasting spawning migration of summer-run steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) results in significant depletion of energy reserves during the proposed critical period for repeat spawning. To determine whether and when lipid energy reserves and growth influence repeat spawning, measures of lipid energy reserves, growth rate and reproductive development were tracked in female steelhead trout from first to second spawning as a consecutive or skip spawner in captivity. Plasma triglyceride (TG) levels and growth rate were elevated by 10 weeks after spawning in reproductive (i.e. consecutive spawning) versus non-reproductive (i.e. skip spawning) individuals. Muscle lipid (ML) levels, condition factor and plasma estradiol levels increased at later time points. The early differences in plasma TG levels and increases in growth rate are attributable to differential rates of feeding and assimilation between the groups following spawning. A year after spawning, plasma TG levels, MLs and growth rate decreased in consecutive spawners, attributable to transfer of lipid reserves into the ovary. During the year prior to second spawning, energy reserves and plasma estradiol levels were higher in reproductive skip spawners versus consecutive spawners, reflecting the energy deficit after first spawning. These results suggest that the decision to initiate ovarian recrudescence occurs by 10 weeks after first spawning and are consistent with the differences in energy reserves acquired following spawning being a consequence of that decision. This information will increase the success of conservation projects reconditioning post-spawning summer-run steelhead trout.

Jenkins, Laura E.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modulation of seismic noise near the San Jacinto fault in southern California: origin and observations of the cyclical time dependence and associated crustal properties

SUMMARY We examine the cyclic amplitude variation of seismic noise recorded by continuous three-component broad-band seismic data with durations spanning 91–713 d (2008–2011) from three different networks: Anza seismic network, IDA network and the transportable seismic array. These stations surround the San Jacinto Fault Zone (SJFZ) in southern California. We find the seismic noise amplitudes exhibit a cyclical variation between 0.3 and 7.2 Hz. The high-frequency (≥0.9 Hz) noise variations can be linked to human activity and are not a concern. Our primary interest is signals in the low frequencies (0.3–0.9 Hz), where the seismic noise is modulated by semi-diurnal tidal mode M2. These long-period (low-frequency) variations of seismic noise can be attributed to a temporal change of the ocean waves breaking at the shoreline, driven by ocean tidal loading. We focus on the M2 variation of seismic noise at f = 0.6 Hz, travelling distances of ∼92 km through the crust from offshore California to the inland Anza, California, region. Relative to the shoreline station, data from the inland stations show a phase lag of ∼ –12°, which we attribute to the cyclic change in M2 that can alter crustal seismic attenuation. We also find that for mode M2 at 0.6 Hz, the amplitude variations of the seismic quality factor (Q) depend on azimuth and varies from 0.22 per cent (southeast to northwest) to 1.28 per cent (northeast to southwest) with Q = 25 for Rayleigh waves. We propose the direction dependence of the Q variation at 0.6 Hz reflects the preferred orientation of subfaults parallel to the main faulting defined by the primarily N45°W strike of the SJFZ.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hypothesis tests on Rayleigh wave radiation pattern shapes: a theoretical assessment of idealized source screening

SUMMARY Shallow seismic sources excite Rayleigh wave ground motion with azimuthally dependent radiation patterns. We place binary hypothesis tests on theoretical models of such radiation patterns to screen cylindrically symmetric sources (like explosions) from non-symmetric sources (like non-vertical dip-slip or non-VDS faults). These models for data include sources with several unknown parameters, contaminated by Gaussian noise and embedded in a layered half-space. The generalized maximum likelihood ratio tests that we derive from these data models produce screening statistics and decision rules that depend on measured, noisy ground motion at discrete sensor locations. We explicitly quantify how the screening power of these statistics increase with the size of any dip-slip and strike-slip components of the source, relative to noise (faulting signal strength) and how they vary with network geometry. As applications of our theory, we apply these tests to (1) find optimal sensor locations that maximize the probability of screening non-circular radiation patterns and (2) invert for the largest non-VDS faulting signal that could be mistakenly attributed to an explosion with damage, at a particular attribution probability. Finally, we quantify how certain errors that are sourced by opening cracks increase screening rate errors. While such theoretical solutions are ideal and require future validation, they remain important in underground explosion monitoring scenarios because they provide fundamental physical limits on the discrimination power of tests that screen explosive from non-VDS faulting sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Type Ia supernova magnitude step from the local dark matter environment

ABSTRACT Residuals in the Hubble diagram at optical wavelengths and host galaxy stellar mass are observed to correlate in type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) (‘magnitude step’). Among possible progenitor channels for the associated explosions, those based on dark matter (DM) have attracted significant attention, including our recent proposal that ‘normal’ SNe Ia from bare detonations in sub-Chandrasekhar white dwarf stars are triggered by the passage of asteroid-mass primordial black holes (PBHs): the magnitude step could then originate from a brightness dependence on stellar properties, on DM properties, or both. Here, we present a method to estimate the local DM density and velocity dispersion of the environment of SN Ia progenitors. We find a luminosity step of $0.52\pm 0.11\,$ mag corresponding to bins of high versus low DM density in a sample of 222 low-redshift events from The Open Supernova Catalog. We investigate whether the magnitude step can be attributed to local DM properties alone, assuming asteroid-mass PBHs. Given the inverse correlation between SN Ia brightness and PBH mass, an intriguing explanation is a spatially inhomogeneous PBH mass function. If so, a strong mass segregation in the DM density-dependent PBH mass scale is needed to explain the magnitude step. While mass segregation is observed in dense clusters, it is unlikely to be realized on galactic scales. Therefore, if DM consists of asteroid-mass PBHs, the magnitude step is more likely to exist, and dominantly to be attributed to local stellar properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian constraints on the origin and geology of exoplanetary material using a population of externally polluted white dwarfs

ABSTRACT White dwarfs that have accreted planetary bodies are a powerful probe of the bulk composition of exoplanetary material. In this paper, we present a Bayesian model to explain the abundances observed in the atmospheres of 202 DZ white dwarfs by considering the heating, geochemical differentiation, and collisional processes experienced by the planetary bodies accreted, as well as gravitational sinking. The majority (>60 per cent) of systems are consistent with the accretion of primitive material. We attribute the small spread in refractory abundances observed to a similar spread in the initial planet-forming material, as seen in the compositions of nearby stars. A range in Na abundances in the pollutant material is attributed to a range in formation temperatures from below 1000 K to higher than 1400 K, suggesting that pollutant material arrives in white dwarf atmospheres from a variety of radial locations. We also find that Solar System-like differentiation is common place in exoplanetary systems. Extreme siderophile (Fe, Ni, or Cr) abundances in eight systems require the accretion of a core-rich fragment of a larger differentiated body to at least a 3σ significance, whilst one system shows evidence that it accreted a crust-rich fragment. In systems where the abundances suggest that accretion has finished (13/202), the total mass accreted can be calculated. The 13 systems are estimated to have accreted masses ranging from the mass of the Moon to half that of Vesta. Our analysis suggests that accretion continues for 11 Myrs on average.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗