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At least 1,513 records · Page 84
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the feasibility of using downwind methods to quantify point source oil and gas emissions using continuously monitoring fence-line sensors

The dependable reporting of methane (CH 4 ) emissions from point sources, such as fugitive leaks from oil and gas infrastructure, is important for profit maximization (retaining more hydrocarbons), evaluating climate impacts, assessing CH 4 fees for regulatory programs, and validating CH 4 intensity in differentiated gas programs. Currently, there are disagreements between emissions reported by different quantification techniques for the same sources. It has been suggested that downwind CH 4 quantification methods using CH 4 measurements on the fence line of production facilities could be used to generate emission estimates from oil and gas operations at the site level, but it is currently unclear how accurate the quantified emissions are. To investigate the accuracy of downwind methods, this study uses fence-line simulated data collected during controlled-release experiments as input for a non-standard closed-path eddy covariance (EC), the Gaussian plume inverse model (GPIM), and the backward Lagrangian stochastic (bLs) model in a range of atmospheric conditions. This study's EC attempt was unsuccessful due to data collection and instrumentation issues, resulting in invalid results characterized by underestimated emissions, large negative fluxes, and cospectra/ogives that deviated from their ideal shapes. Consequently, the EC results could not be compared with the GPIM and bLS model. The bLs model demonstrated the highest accuracy for single-release single-point emissions, though it exhibited greater uncertainty than GPIM under multi-release conditions. Across the GPIM and bLs model, the most reliable quantification was achieved with 15 min averaging and a narrow 5° wind sector range. Although EC was limited in this context, future studies should consider employing a standard EC system and further optimizing GPIM and bLs approaches – particularly for complex multi-source scenarios – to enhance quantification accuracy and reduce uncertainty.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined selection of the dynamic model and modeling error in nonlinear aeroelastic systems using Bayesian Inference

Here, we report a Bayesian framework for concurrent selection of physics-based models and (modeling) error models. We investigate the use of colored noise to capture the mismatch between the predictions of calibrated models and observational data that cannot be explained by measurement error alone within the context of Bayesian estimation for stochastic ordinary differential equations. Proposed models are characterized by the average data-fit, a measure of how well a model fits the measurements, and the model complexity measured using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The use of a more complex error models increases the average data-fit but also increases the complexity of the combined model, possibly over-fitting the data. Bayesian model selection is used to find the optimal physical model as well as the optimal error model. The optimal model is defined using the evidence, where the average data-fit is balanced by the complexity of the model. The effect of colored noise process is illustrated using a nonlinear aeroelastic oscillator representing a rigid NACA0012 airfoil undergoing limit cycle oscillations due to complex fluid–structure interactions. Several quasi-steady and unsteady aerodynamic models are proposed with colored noise or white noise for the model error. The use of colored noise improves the predictive capabilities of simpler models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Collective Dispersal Leads to Variance in Fitness and Maintains Offspring Size Variation within Marine Populations

Variance in fitness is well known to influence the outcome of evolution but is rarely considered in the theory of marine reproductive strategies. In coastal environments, turbulent mesoscale eddies can collect larvae into packets, resulting in collective dispersal. Larvae in packets return to the coast or are lost offshore in groups, producing variance in fitness. Using a Markov process to calculate fixation probabilities for competing phenotypes, we examine the evolution of offspring size and spawning duration in species with benthic adults and pelagic offspring. The offspring size that provides mothers with the highest mean fitness also generates the greatest variance in fitness, but pairwise invasion plots show that bet-hedging strategies are not evolutionarily stable; maximizing expected fitness correctly predicts the unique evolutionarily stable strategy. Nonetheless, fixation can take a long time. We find that selection to increase spawning duration as a risk avoidance strategy to reduce the negative impacts of stochastic recruitment success can allow multiple offspring sizes to coexist in a population for extended periods. This has two important consequences for offspring size: (1) coexistence occurs over a broader range of sizes and is longer when spawning duration is longer because longer spawning durations reduce variation in fitness and increase the time to fixation, and (2) longer spawning durations can compensate for having a nonoptimal size and even allow less optimal sizes to reach fixation. Collective dispersal and longer spawning durations could effectively maintain offspring size variation even in the absence of good and bad years or locations. Finally, empirical comparisons of offspring size would therefore not always reflect environment-specific differences in the optimal size.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Integrity of Ceramic Parts Predicted When Loads and Temperatures Fluctuate Over Time

Brittle materials are being used, and being considered for use, for a wide variety of high performance applications that operate in harsh environments, including static and rotating turbine parts for unmanned aerial vehicles, auxiliary power units, and distributed power generation. Other applications include thermal protection systems, dental prosthetics, fuel cells, oxygen transport membranes, radomes, and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). In order for these high-technology ceramics to be used successfully for structural applications that push the envelope of materials capabilities, design engineers must consider that brittle materials are designed and analyzed differently than metallic materials. Unlike ductile metals, brittle materials display a stochastic strength response because of the combination of low fracture toughness and the random nature of the size, orientation, and distribution of inherent microscopic flaws. This plus the fact that the strength of a component under load may degrade over time because of slow crack growth means that a probabilistic-based life-prediction methodology must be used when the tradeoffs of failure probability, performance, and useful life are being optimized. The CARES/Life code (which was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center) predicts the probability of ceramic components failing from spontaneous catastrophic rupture when these components are subjected to multiaxial loading and slow crack growth conditions. Enhancements to CARES/Life now allow for the component survival probability to be calculated when loading and temperature vary over time.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Implementation of Feldman-Cousins Corrections and Oscillation Calculations in the HPC Environment for the NOvA Experiment

Analysis of neutrino oscillation data involves a combination of complex fitting procedures and statistical correction techniques that are used to determine the full three-flavor PMNS parameters and constraint contours. These techniques rely on computationally intensive “multi-universe” stochastic modeling. The process of calculating these contours and corrections can dominate final stages of the data analysis and become a bottleneck for examining the ef-fect of systematic variations on the final results. As part of the DOE SciDAC-4 sponsored research program, we present a new implementation of a neutrino oscillation fitting and framework to carry out calculations of Feldman-Cousins corrections. This implementation is specifically designed and optimized to operate on modern High-Performance Computing (HPC) facilities. We present the performance of the system in calculating allowed regions for the NOvA experiment based on 8.9 x 1020 and 6.9 x 1020 protons-on-target (POT) neutrino and antineutrino datasets, and compare the performance of this new implementation run at the NERSC supercomputing facility with that from methods used previously by the NOvA collaboration running on grid computing facilities.

Sousa, Alexandre↗
NASA NTRS1995

Filtering Image Records Using Wavelets and the Zakai Equation

Consider the problem of detecting and localizing a faint object moving In an "essentially stationary" background, using a sequence of two-dimensional low-SNR images of the scene. A natural approach consists of "digitizing" each snapshot into a discrete set of observations, sufficiently (perhaps not exactly) matched to the object In question, then tracking the object using an appropriate stochastic filter. The tracking would be expected to make up for the low signal-to-noise ratio, this allowing one to "coherently" process successive images in order to beat down the noise and localize the object. Thus, "tracking" here does not refer to the usual notion of detecting then tracking: rather, we track in order to detect The problem then becomes one of choosing the appropriate image representation as well as the optimal (and necessarily nonlinear filter. We propose exact and approximate solutions using wavelets and the Zakai equation. The smoothness of the wavelets used is required in the derivation of the evolution equation for the conditional density giving the filter, and their orthogonality makes it possible to carry out actual computations of the Ito- and change-of-gauge-terms in the algorithm effectively.

Haddad, Ziad S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preserving nonlinear constraints in variational flow filtering data assimilation

Data assimilation aims to estimate the states of a dynamical system by optimally combining sparse and noisy observations of the physical system with uncertain forecasts produced by a computational model. The states of many dynamical systems of interest obey nonlinear physical constraints, and the corresponding dynamics is confined to a certain sub-manifold of the state space. Standard data assimilation techniques applied to such systems yield posterior states lying outside the manifold, violating the physical constraints. This work focuses on particle flow filters which use stochastic differential equations to evolve state samples from a prior distribution to samples from an observation-informed posterior distribution. The variational Fokker-Planck (VFP)—a generic particle flow filtering framework—is extended to incorporate non-linear, equality state constraints in the analysis. To this end, two algorithmic approaches that modify the VFP stochastic differential equation are discussed: (i) VFPSTAB, to inexactly preserve constraints with the addition of a stabilizing drift term, and (ii) VFPDAE, to exactly preserve constraints by treating the VFP dynamics as a stochastic differential-algebraic equation (SDAE). Additionally, an implicit-explicit time integrator is developed to evolve the VFPDAE dynamics. The strength of the proposed approach for constraint preservation in data assimilation is demonstrated on three test problems: the double pendulum, Korteweg-de-Vries, and the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven sensor placement approach for detecting voltage violations in distribution systems

Stochastic fluctuations in power injections from distributed energy resources (DERs) combined with load variability can cause constraint violations (e.g., exceeded voltage limits) in electric distribution systems. To monitor grid operations, sensors are placed to measure important quantities such as the voltage magnitudes. Here, in this paper, we consider a sensor placement problem which seeks to identify locations for installing sensors that can capture all possible violations of voltage magnitude limits. We formulate a bilevel optimization problem that minimizes the number of sensors and avoids false sensor alarms in the upper level while ensuring detection of any voltage violations in the lower level. This problem is challenging due to the nonlinearity of the power flow equations and the presence of binary variables. Accordingly, we employ recently developed conservative linear approximations of the power flow equations that overestimate or underestimate the voltage magnitudes. By replacing the nonlinear power flow equations with conservative linear approximations, we can ensure that the resulting sensor locations and thresholds are sufficient to identify any constraint violations. Additionally, we apply various problem reformulations to significantly improve computational tractability while simultaneously ensuring an appropriate placement of sensors. Lastly, we improve the quality of the results via an approximate gradient descent method that adjusts the sensor thresholds. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method for several test cases, including a system with multiple switching configurations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1980

An application of extremal field guidance in statistical low thrust guidance analysis

The subject of this paper is the application of extremal field guidance to the covariance analysis of low thrust retargeting guidance. The general procedure for low thrust navigation analysis is briefly reviewed. The basic equations of trajectory optimization and extremal field guidance are presented with emphasis on the low thrust problem. The adopted formulation includes thruster on-off times as control variables and accounts for the effects of model parameter variations. A method of solution of the guidance equations is outlined; and the application of the solution in a covariance analysis, including a procedure for the treatment of model parameter variations as either biases or first order Gauss-Markov stochastic processes, is discussed.

Jacobson, R. A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strong-field QED limitations on TeV-class plasma wakefield accelerators

We demonstrate that quantum and classical radiation effects can become non-negligible for TeV-class beams propagating through plasma channels typical of staged plasma accelerators. Although the quantum nonlinearity parameter χ e remains small under currently envisioned experimental conditions, the cumulative influence of radiation over long acceleration distances can lead to significant modifications to the beam’s energy spread, emittance, and polarization. Our analytic models, validated by particle-in-cell simulations, highlight that for standard Gaussian beams, the orbit-induced energy spread dominates over quantum stochastic effects but can be mitigated by tailoring the beam profile, for example, through ring-shaped transverse distributions. In regimes where the radiation reaction approaches the accelerating force, the emittance may be cooled, forming distinctive ring-shaped phase-space structures. Finally, we analyze the influence of the radiation effect on spin transport inside the wakefield. These findings underscore the importance of considering both classical and quantum radiation dynamics in the design and optimization of future high-intensity plasma accelerators.

accelerator↗
DOE OSTI2018

Scalable deep text comprehension for Cancer surveillance on high-performance computing

Background: Deep Learning (DL) has advanced the state-of-the-art capabilities in bioinformatics applications which has resulted in trends of increasingly sophisticated and computationally demanding models trained by larger and larger data sets. This vastly increased computational demand challenges the feasibility of conducting cutting-edge research. One solution is to distribute the vast computational workload across multiple computing cluster nodes with data parallelism algorithms. In this study, we used a High-Performance Computing environment and implemented the Downpour Stochastic Gradient Descent algorithm for data parallelism to train a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for the natural language processing task of information extraction from a massive dataset of cancer pathology reports. We evaluated the scalability improvements using data parallelism training and the Titan supercomputer at Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. To evaluate scalability, we used different numbers of worker nodes and performed a set of experiments comparing the effects of different training batch sizes and optimizer functions.Results: We found that Adadelta would consistently converge at a lower validation loss, though requiring over twice as many training epochs as the fastest converging optimizer, RMSProp. The Adam optimizer consistently achieved a close 2nd place minimum validation loss significantly faster; using a batch size of 16 and 32 allowed the network to converge in only 4.5 training epochs.Conclusions: We demonstrated that the networked training process is scalable across multiple compute nodes communicating with message passing interface while achieving higher classification accuracy compared to a traditional machine learning algorithm.

Qiu, John X.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-based modeling and data analytics [Slides]

This presentation contains a summary of ongoing work within the physics-based modeling and data analytics work package within the Nuclear Materials Discovery and Qualification initiative (NMDQi). Topics include work on MOOSE-based crystal plasticity, molecular dynamics modeling of recombination in metals and alloys, the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module, and machine learning and atomistic modeling to predict thermo-kinetic properties of nuclear structural materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Spectral proper orthogonal decomposition and its relationship to dynamic mode decomposition and resolvent analysis

We consider the frequency domain form of proper orthogonal decomposition (POD), called spectral proper orthogonal decomposition (SPOD). Spectral POD is derived from a space–time POD problem for statistically stationary flows and leads to modes that each oscillate at a single frequency. This form of POD goes back to the original work of Lumley ( Stochastic Tools in Turbulence , Academic Press, 1970), but has been overshadowed by a space-only form of POD since the 1990s. We clarify the relationship between these two forms of POD and show that SPOD modes represent structures that evolve coherently in space and time, while space-only POD modes in general do not. We also establish a relationship between SPOD and dynamic mode decomposition (DMD); we show that SPOD modes are in fact optimally averaged DMD modes obtained from an ensemble DMD problem for stationary flows. Accordingly, SPOD modes represent structures that are dynamic in the same sense as DMD modes but also optimally account for the statistical variability of turbulent flows. Finally, we establish a connection between SPOD and resolvent analysis. The key observation is that the resolvent-mode expansion coefficients must be regarded as statistical quantities to ensure convergent approximations of the flow statistics. When the expansion coefficients are uncorrelated, we show that SPOD and resolvent modes are identical. Our theoretical results and the overall utility of SPOD are demonstrated using two example problems: the complex Ginzburg–Landau equation and a turbulent jet.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermodynamics of order and randomness in dopant distributions inferred from atomically resolved imaging

Abstract Exploration of structure-property relationships as a function of dopant concentration is commonly based on mean field theories for solid solutions. However, such theories that work well for semiconductors tend to fail in materials with strong correlations, either in electronic behavior or chemical segregation. In these cases, the details of atomic arrangements are generally not explored and analyzed. The knowledge of the generative physics and chemistry of the material can obviate this problem, since defect configuration libraries as stochastic representation of atomic level structures can be generated, or parameters of mesoscopic thermodynamic models can be derived. To obtain such information for improved predictions, we use data from atomically resolved microscopic images that visualize complex structural correlations within the system and translate them into statistical mechanical models of structure formation. Given the significant uncertainties about the microscopic aspects of the material’s processing history along with the limited number of available images, we combine model optimization techniques with the principles of statistical hypothesis testing. We demonstrate the approach on data from a series of atomically-resolved scanning transmission electron microscopy images of Mo x Re 1- x S 2 at varying ratios of Mo/Re stoichiometries, for which we propose an effective interaction model that is then used to generate atomic configurations and make testable predictions at a range of concentrations and formation temperatures.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Toroidal modeling of runaway electron loss due to 3-D fields in DIII-D and COMPASS

The 3-D field induced relativistic runaway electron (RE) loss has been simulated for DIII-D, COMPASS and ITER plasmas, utilizing the MARS-F code incorporated with the recently developed and updated RE orbit module (REORBIT). Modeling shows effectively 100% loss of a post-disruption, high-current runaway beam in DIII-D, due to the 1 kG level of magnetic field perturbation produced by a fast growing n = 1 resistive kink instability. The RE loss is shown to be independent of the particle energy or the initial location of particles in the configuration space. Applied resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) fields from in-vessel coils are not effective for RE beam mitigation in DIII-D, but do produce finite (>10%) RE loss in COMPASS, consistent with experimental observations in above two devices. The major reasons for this difference in RE control by RMP between these two devices are (i) the coil proximity to the RE beam and (ii) the effective coil current scaling versus the machine size and the toroidal magnetic field. About 10% RE loss fraction is also predicted for an ITER 15 MA scenario with pre-disruption plasma, highlighting the role of the plasma response. Up to 30% loss is computed, however, by artificially scaling the equilibrium pressure to zero. This is due to the more resistive plasma response and stronger resulting field line stochasticity. Distributions of the lost REs to the limiting surface show poloidally peaked profile near the high-field-side in both DIII-D and COMPASS, covering about 100o poloidal angle. Higher perturbation field level and/or higher particle energy also result in REs being lost to the low-field-side of the limiting surface of these two devices, increasing the effective wetted area. Finally, for the modeled ITER plasmas, the applied RMP field, with optimal poloidal spectrum that maximizes the edge localized mode control, leads to REs being lost to the lower divertor region of the limiting surface within a narrow poloidal band.

3-D field↗
NASA NTRS1980

Parameter identification of linear discrete stochastic systems with time delays

An identification algorithm that uses the maximum likelihood technique to identify the unknown time delays, plant parameters, and noise covariances of linear discrete stochastic systems is presented. Cases of additive white noise and colored measurement noises are considered. The likelihood function is evaluated using either a minimum-variance (Kalman) filter or a minimal-order observer. The Kalman filter is used in the identification algorithm to provide minimum-variance estimates. The minimal-order observer is a lower-dimensional and computationally simpler filter, and is advantageous especially for systems with long delays. It provides a less optimal solution to the minimum-mean-square state estimation problem. The colored-noise observer algorithm has the disadvantage of having to compute an extra error covariance matrix of lower order.

Wong, E. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Improved image decompression for reduced transform coding artifacts

The perceived quality of images reconstructed from low bit rate compression is severely degraded by the appearance of transform coding artifacts. This paper proposes a method for producing higher quality reconstructed images based on a stochastic model for the image data. Quantization (scalar or vector) partitions the transform coefficient space and maps all points in a partition cell to a representative reconstruction point, usually taken as the centroid of the cell. The proposed image estimation technique selects the reconstruction point within the quantization partition cell which results in a reconstructed image which best fits a non-Gaussian Markov random field (MRF) image model. This approach results in a convex constrained optimization problem which can be solved iteratively. At each iteration, the gradient projection method is used to update the estimate based on the image model. In the transform domain, the resulting coefficient reconstruction points are projected to the particular quantization partition cells defined by the compressed image. Experimental results will be shown for images compressed using scalar quantization of block DCT and using vector quantization of subband wavelet transform. The proposed image decompression provides a reconstructed image with reduced visibility of transform coding artifacts and superior perceived quality.

Orourke, Thomas P.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Stochastic Games for Continuous-Time Jump Processes Under Finite-Horizon Payoff Criterion

In this paper we study two-person nonzero-sum games for continuous-time jump processes with the randomized history-dependent strategies under the finite-horizon payoff criterion. The state space is countable, and the transition rates and payoff functions are allowed to be unbounded from above and from below. Under the suitable conditions, we introduce a new topology for the set of all randomized Markov multi-strategies and establish its compactness and metrizability. Then by constructing the approximating sequences of the transition rates and payoff functions, we show that the optimal value function for each player is a unique solution to the corresponding optimality equation and obtain the existence of a randomized Markov Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, we illustrate the applications of our main results with a controlled birth and death system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗