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At least 1,513 records · Page 84
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Synthetic galaxy clusters and observations based on Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Data

ABSTRACT We develop a novel data-driven method for generating synthetic optical observations of galaxy clusters. In cluster weak lensing, the interplay between analysis choices and systematic effects related to source galaxy selection, shape measurement, and photometric redshift estimation can be best characterized in end-to-end tests going from mock observations to recovered cluster masses. To create such test scenarios, we measure and model the photometric properties of galaxy clusters and their sky environments from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) data in two bins of cluster richness $\lambda \in [30; 45)$, $\lambda \in [45; 60)$ and three bins in cluster redshift ($z\in [0.3; 0.35)$, $z\in [0.45; 0.5)$ and $z\in [0.6; 0.65)$. Using deep-field imaging data, we extrapolate galaxy populations beyond the limiting magnitude of DES Y3 and calculate the properties of cluster member galaxies via statistical background subtraction. We construct mock galaxy clusters as random draws from a distribution function, and render mock clusters and line-of-sight catalogues into synthetic images in the same format as actual survey observations. Synthetic galaxy clusters are generated from real observational data, and thus are independent from the assumptions inherent to cosmological simulations. The recipe can be straightforwardly modified to incorporate extra information, and correct for survey incompleteness. New realizations of synthetic clusters can be created at minimal cost, which will allow future analyses to generate the large number of images needed to characterize systematic uncertainties in cluster mass measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining RV variation using highly reddened Type Ia supernovae from the Pantheon+ sample

ABSTRACT Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) are powerful tools for measuring the expansion history of the Universe, but the impact of dust around SNe Ia remains unknown and is a critical systematic uncertainty. One way to improve our empirical description of dust is to analyse highly reddened SNe Ia [E(B − V) > 0.4, roughly equivalent to the fitted SALT2 light-curve parameter c > 0.3]. With the recently released Pantheon+ sample, there are 57 SNe Ia that were removed because of their high colour alone (with colours up to c = 1.61), which can provide enormous leverage on understanding line-of-sight RV. Previous studies have claimed that RV decreases with redder colour, though it is unclear if this is due to limited statistics, selection effects, or an alternative explanation. To test this claim, we fit two separate colour–luminosity relationships, one for the main cosmological sample (c < 0.3) and one for highly reddened (c > 0.3) SNe Ia. We find the change in the colour–luminosity coefficient to be consistent with zero. Additionally, we compare the data to simulations with different colour models, and find that the data prefers a model with a flat dependence of RV on colour over a declining dependence. Finally, our results strongly support that line-of-sight RV to SNe Ia is not a single value, but forms a distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Primordial non-Gaussianity from the completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey II: measurements in Fourier space with optimal weights

ABSTRACT We present measurements of the local primordial non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{\mathrm{NL}}^\mathrm{local} $from the clustering of 343 708 quasars with redshifts 0.8 < z < 2.2 distributed over 4808 deg2 from the final data release (DR16) of the extended Baryon Acoustic Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS), the largest volume spectroscopic survey up to date. Our analysis is performed in Fourier space, using the power spectrum monopole at very large scales to constrain the scale-dependent halo bias. We demonstrate the robustness of our analysis pipeline with EZ-mock catalogues that simulate the eBOSS DR16 target selection. We carefully assess the impact of systematics on our measurement, exploiting a novel neural network scheme for cleaning the DR16 sample as well as test multiple contamination removal methods. We estimate the bias due to the overcorrection of the systematic removal to be sub-dominant compared to the statistical uncertainty. We find fNL = −12 ± 21 (68 per cent confidence) for the main clustering sample including quasars with redshifts between 0.8 and 2.2, after applying redshift weighting techniques, designed for non-Gaussianity measurement from large scales structure, to optimize our analysis, which improve our results by 37 per cent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Identifying impacts of contact tracing on HIV epidemiological inference from phylogenetic data

Abstract Robust sampling methods are foundational to inferences using phylogenies. Yet the impact of using contact tracing, a type of non-uniform sampling used in public health applications such as infectious disease outbreak investigations, has not been investigated in the molecular epidemiology field. To understand how contact tracing influences a recovered phylogeny, we developed a new simulation tool called SEEPS (Sequence Evolution and Epidemiological Process Simulator) that allows for the simulation of contact tracing and the resulting transmission tree, pathogen phylogeny, and corresponding virus genetic sequences. Importantly, SEEPS takes within-host evolution into account when generating pathogen phylogenies and sequences from transmission histories. Using SEEPS, we demonstrate that contact tracing can significantly impact the structure of the resulting tree, as described by popular tree statistics. Contact tracing generates phylogenies that are less balanced than the underlying transmission process, less representative of the larger epidemiological process, and affects the internal/external branch length ratios that characterize specific epidemiological scenarios. We also examined real data from a 2007–2008 Swedish HIV-1 outbreak and the broader 1998–2010 European HIV-1 epidemic to highlight the differences in contact tracing and expected phylogenies. Aided by SEEPS, we show that the data collection of the Swedish outbreak was strongly influenced by contact tracing even after downsampling, while the broader European Union epidemic showed little evidence of universal contact tracing, agreeing with the known epidemiological information about sampling and spread. Overall, our results highlight the importance of including possible non-uniform sampling schemes when examining phylogenetic trees. For that, SEEPS serves as a useful tool to evaluate such impacts, thereby facilitating better phylogenetic inferences of the characteristics of a disease outbreak. SEEPS is available at https://github.com/MolEvolEpid/SEEPS.

Virology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling iterative reconstruction and displacement field in the large scale structure

The next generation of galaxy surveys like the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument and Euclid will provide datasets orders of magnitude larger than anything available to date. Our ability to model nonlinear effects in late time matter perturbations will be a key to unlock the full potential of these datasets, and the area of initial condition reconstruction is attracting growing attention. Iterative reconstruction developed by Marcel Schmittfull et al. is a technique designed to reconstruct the displacement field from the observed galaxy distribution. The nonlinear displacement field and initial linear density field are highly correlated. Therefore, reconstructing the nonlinear displacement field enables us to extract the primordial cosmological information better than from the late time density field at the level of the two-point statistics. This paper will test to what extent the iterative reconstruction can recover the true displacement field and construct a perturbation theory model for the postreconstructed field. We model the iterative reconstruction process with Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) up to third order for dark matter in real space and compare it with N-body simulations. Here we find that the simulated iterative reconstruction does not converge to the nonlinear displacement field, and the discrepancy mainly appears in the shift term, i.e., the term correlated directly with the linear density field. On the contrary, our 3LPT model predicts that the iterative reconstruction should converge to the nonlinear displacement field. We discuss the sources of discrepancy, including numerical noise/artifacts on small scales, and present an ad hoc phenomenological model that improves the agreement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rolling Root Mean Square Based Multimodal Anomaly Detection for Real Time Monitoring of Smart Grid

Reliable real-time monitoring is valuable for maintaining the operational integrity of modern electrical smart grids. Deployment of heterogeneous sensing technologies in substations has enabled high-resolution, multichannel waveform monitoring, but also introduces challenges for anomaly detection due to noise, baseline drift, and modality-dependent signal characteristics. In this work, we present a computationally efficient unsupervised method for multimodal event detection based on Rolling Root Mean Square based Event Detection (RRMSED). The method is developed using in-house, field deployed sensors collecting data at a utility substation. The sensing system comprises voltage and current sensors, triaxial accelerometers, and magnetometers, collectively capturing electrical, vibrational, and magnetic waveform measurements at high temporal resolution. RRMSED operates by extracting rolling RMS energy features and their first-order temporal differences from consecutive waveform segments for each channel and then applying channel-specific statistical thresholds learned from historical data. A persistence-based exceedance logic is employed to robustly identify transient events while suppressing impulsive noise, and to provide precise temporal localization with high resolution. The framework is designed for continuous server-side operation and can be deployed in real time without requiring complex models. Experiments on simulated waveform data with known ground truth demonstrate low false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) rates. Application to real substation data shows RRMSED to identify events that are not captured by conventional monitoring indicators including fast transient detection algorithm currently deployed in the system. These results indicate that rolling RMS based features provide an effective and practical basis for real-time multimodal event detection in smart-grid substations.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Particle interspacing effects on the mechanical behavior of a Fe–TiB 2 metal matrix composite using FFT-based mesoscopic field dislocation mechanics

This paper presents an application to metal matrix composites (MMCs) of an enhanced elasto-viscoplastic Fast Fourier Transform (EVP-FFT) formulation coupled with a phenomenological continuum Mesoscale Field Dislocation Mechanics (MFDM) theory. Contrary to conventional crystal plasticity, which only accounts for plastic flow and hardening induced by statistically stored dislocations (SSDs), MFDM-EVP-FFT also describes the evolution of polarized geometrically necessary dislocation (GND) density and its effect on both plastic flow and hardening. Numerical results for a Fe–TiB 2 MMC made of a ferrite matrix (α-Fe) and elastic ceramic particles (TiB 2 ) are presented. Full-field simulations are performed using synthetic periodic unit cells representative of the MMC, with single-crystalline and polycrystalline matrix, for different particle interspacing distances. A strong dependence of the predicted equivalent stress, cumulated plastic strain and GND density fields with particle interspacing distance is observed, in contrast with conventional crystal plasticity. Correlations between these mechanical fields and microstructural features, and their influence on local and global mechanical behavior are examined for the different MMC microstructures.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Extrapolation of the Rainflow-Counted Load Ranges for Fatigue Assessment of the Wind Turbine's Blades

Wind turbine design standards recommend the use of statistical modeling coupled with extrapolation of the short-term load data to long-term periods for fatigue reliability assessment. However, statistical error and computational expense can limit the accuracy of such approaches. In the case of wind turbine blades, the errors are more significant because of the high material fatigue exponent that makes the damage estimations more sensitive to variations. In addition, due to different excitation sources, the flapwise load range histogram is not unimodal, and thus its statistical modeling is complex. In the present work, we provide three methods for statistical modeling of the flapwise bending moment ranges including a novel approach based on frequency-based separation of the modes. The first two methods are simplified approaches for modeling the most crucial load ranges using unimodal distributions and the third method involves multimodal distribution fitting. The research is based on 3600 10-minute aeroelastic simulations of DTU 10MW case study wind turbine from which a benchmark damage equivalent load (DEL) is calculated. The DEL calculated by each of the three proposed methods is compared to this reference. The results show that the conventional approach based on using 6 seeds as well as using mixture models fitted on the limited data lead to under-conservative results with errors up to 23%. On the other hand, the simplified unimodal approaches provided in this work can provide conservative estimations of the fatigue damage with mean values 5% and 12% higher than the benchmark. However, the variability of the DEL estimates is higher when using unimodal extrapolation of the load ranges, and the data can be conservative by 17.5%. The proposed unimodal fits suggested for modeling and extrapolation of the blade's load ranges provide less errors relatively and most importantly conservative DEL estimations while maintaining computational efficiency.

blade fatigue↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quality Control Methods for Advanced Metering Infrastructure Data

While urban-scale building energy modeling is becoming increasingly common, it currently lacks standards, guidelines, or empirical validation against measured data. Empirical validation necessary to enable best practices is becoming increasingly tractable. The growing prevalence of advanced metering infrastructure has led to significant data regarding the energy consumption within individual buildings, but is something utilities and countries are still struggling to analyze and use wisely. In partnership with the Electric Power Board of Chattanooga, Tennessee, a crude OpenStudio/EnergyPlus model of over 178,000 buildings has been created and used to compare simulated energy against actual, 15-min, whole-building electrical consumption of each building. In this study, classifying building type is treated as a use case for quantifying performance associated with smart meter data. This article attempts to provide guidance for working with advanced metering infrastructure for buildings related to: quality control, pathological data classifications, statistical metrics on performance, a methodology for classifying building types, and assess accuracy. Advanced metering infrastructure was used to collect whole-building electricity consumption for 178,333 buildings, define equations for common data issues (missing values, zeros, and spiking), propose a new method for assigning building type, and empirically validate gaps between real buildings and existing prototypes using industry-standard accuracy metrics.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantification and prediction of solidification textures under additive manufacturing conditions

Crystallographic textures are a major determinant of the macroscale anisotropic properties of polycrystalline metallic alloys produced in a wide range of additive manufacturing (AM) processes. Here, we introduce a statistical method that can accurately quantify the degree of orientational order of textures despite the large random fluctuations in the orientation of individual grains inherent in AM processes. The method, demonstrated for laser and resolidification of AlSi thin films, extends Z-scoring to a dynamical regime to assess the statistical significance of observed textures compared to randomly generated ones at different stages of solidification. We further show that, combined with phase-field modeling, this method can be used to infer fundamental anisotropic properties of the solid-liquid interface that are essential for texture prediction, and are compared here to the results of atomistic simulations. In addition, phase-field modeling reveals that, even at rapid AM solidification rates, the observed 〈110〉-dominated textures in the AlSi thin films are controlled predominantly by the anisotropy of the interface free-energy and sheds light on the physical mechanism of grain competition. These results significantly enhance both the existing tools for the quantification and prediction of AM crystallographic textures and our basic understanding of their formation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Empirical Model of Puncture Energy for Metals

The purpose of this work is to fit a previously developed empirical equation for puncture energy to simulation data. The conservative puncture energy equation could be used to expedite the process of performing calculations in the development of safety measures, avoiding the need to create complex finite element models for specific puncture scenarios. A total of 108 simulations are developed by varying coupon thickness, coupon material, probe shape, and probe diameter. The simulations are comprised of a low-velocity probe puncturing the coupons, from which the probe kinetic energy change is calculated. The empirical equation is fit to the dimensions, material properties, and energy results using a non-linear least-squares regression method within Python, which determines the two constant parameters for each fit. More statistically significant fit results are achieved by separating the data by probe shape and coupon material.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Verification, Validation, and Calibration Through a Causal Lens

While typical validation and verification approaches focus on identifying the associations between data elements using statistical and machine learning methods, the novel methods in this paper focus instead on identifying causal relationships between data elements. Statistical and machine-learning-based approaches are strictly data-driven, meaning that they provide quantitative comparison measures between data sets without explicitly considering the hypotheses behind them. This can lead to the erroneous conclusion that, if two data sets are close enough, the models that generated them are similar. In addition, when experimental and simulated data differ to an extent that fails to meet the acceptance criteria, calibration techniques are used to tweak simulation model parameters to reduce the gap between the two types of data. This produces the false expectation that a simulation model will match reality. The methods presented in this paper move away from these strictly data-driven methods for validation and calibration toward more robust, model-driven methods based on causal inference. Causal inference aims to identify the possible mechanisms that might have generated data. Thus, this analysis targets the prediction of the effects when one (or more) of the identified mechanisms are altered. There are many approaches to identify, quantify, and illustrate causal relationships. For the scope of this paper, directed graphs are employed as causal models. If the directed graph lacks cycles, it is known as a directed acyclic graph. A node in such a graph represents an observed data element while a directed edge connecting two nodes represents a causal relationship between two variables. The developed causal methods are designed to extract causal models from simulation models and experimental data. Causal models capture the causal relationships between data elements (e.g., simulated and experimental data). In this context, validation and verification are performed by comparing causal models. The proposed approach does not only inform system analysts on how a simulation model matches real-world data, but also identifies elements of the simulation model that should be revised when discrepancies between simulation and experimental data are observed. Through these causal methods, analysts can identify the portion of the model equation(s) that are behind an edge connecting two variables. Hence, once the structural differences between causal models have been determined, model calibration can occur by changing only those model parameters that impact the identified causal relationships.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Peering down the barrel with DESI DR2: 10 000+ inflows at $z$ < 0.6 reveal how galaxies accrete cold gas

Direct observational constraints on how galaxies acquire their gas remain remarkably limited, hindering our understanding of the baryon cycle. We present a search for down-the-barrel NaI D absorption towards 15.6 million galaxies at $z < 0.6$ in DESI Data Release 2. We use Bayesian evidence ratios to assess whether the absorption requires additional components tracing interstellar gas distinct from the systemic component of the galaxy. We construct a catalogue of 50 088 (27 420) galaxies with moderate (strong) evidence for down-the-barrel absorption. The inferred absorption components are broadly distributed in velocity, with approximately 50% at $v_{\rm flow} < -50$ km/s, 30% within 50 km/s of the systemic velocity and the remaining 20% at $v_{\rm flow} > 50$ km/s. We find strong evidence for a large population of low-velocity, infalling absorbers with velocities $\sim$20 km/s in edge-on galaxies, consistent with radial inflows predicted in simulations. The stronger correlation in early-type galaxies between inflow velocity and stellar velocity dispersion, compared to that with stellar mass, suggests that a portion of these inflows may be associated with accreting satellites. These results reveal the multiple pathways in which galaxies accrete gas at redshift $z < 0.6$ for the first time in a statistically significant sample.

Weng, S. [Marseille, Lab. Astrophys.]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Modeling Meets Machine Learning: What Can We Learn?

Machine learning is increasingly recognized as a promising technology in the biological, biomedical, and behavioral sciences. There can be no argument that this technique is incredibly successful in image recognition with immediate applications in diagnostics including electrophysiology, radiology, or pathology, where we have access to massive amounts of annotated data. However, machine learning often performs poorly in prognosis, especially when dealing with sparse data. This is a field where classical physics-based simulation seems to remain irreplaceable. In this review, we identify areas in the biomedical sciences where machine learning and multiscale modeling can mutually benefit from one another: Machine learning can integrate physics-based knowledge in the form of governing equations, boundary conditions, or constraints to manage ill-posted problems and robustly handle sparse and noisy data; multiscale modeling can integrate machine learn- ing to create surrogate models, identify system dynamics and parameters, analyze sensitivities, and quantify uncertainty to bridge the scales and understand the emergence of function. With a view towards applications in the life sciences, we discuss the state of the art of combining machine learning and multiscale modeling, identify applications and opportunities, raise open questions, and address potential challenges and limitations. We anticipate that it will stimulate discussion within the community of computational mechanics and reach out to other disciplines including mathematics, statistics, computer science, artificial intelligence, biomedicine, systems biology, and precision medicine to join forces towards creating robust and efficient models for biological systems.

machine learning, multiscale modeling, physics-bas↗
DOE OSTI2023

Covariance Shaping Over Riemannian Manifolds for Massive MIMO Communication

Acquiring accurate instantaneous channel state information (CSI) is a challenging aspect of massive multi-input multi-output (MIMO) communication. Utilizing statistical information, such as channel covariance matrix, to design statistical beamforming vectors is robust when compared to instantaneous CSI. In this paper, we propose a novel MIMO covariance shaping scheme over Riemannian manifolds. It serves as an effective statistical beamforming solution to a number of close proximity user equipment (UE) that are undergoing substantial channel correlation. Proposed algorithm exploits the Hermitian positive definite nature of covariance matrices lying over Riemannian manifold. We introduce Wasserstein distance function as a Riemannian metric to measure distances between channel covariance matrices. Furthermore, K-means clustering technique is utilized to effectively identify the optimal shape of effective optimal covariance matrices. Our findings suggest that maximizing the geodesic distance between covariance matrices ultimately leads to a corresponding increase in the network throughput, as determined by the beamforming vector used to shape the covariance matrices. Simulation results validate that the proposed solution converges faster than Euclidean-based state-of-the-art, while maintaining the same computational complexity. Finally, the sum rate performance asymptotically achieves full capacity for two-UE case and more than 96% of the upper bound exhaustive search benchmark for multi-UE scenario.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Discrete ordinates analysis of the forced-flight variance reduction technique in Monte Carlo neutral particle transport simulations

This paper presents mathematical formulations and methods to predict the effect of forced-flight variance reduction on Monte Carlo tally variance and calculation time. This includes deducing biasing operators that are then used to construct a history-score probability density function (HSPDF), which represents all possible Monte Carlo random walks and gives the probability of a Monte Carlo history scoring in a tally from a particular phase-space position. The history-score moment equations (HSMEs), the statistical moments of the HSPDF, are then derived to calculate the statistical behavior of the Monte Carlo tally when forced-flight variance reduction is applied. In addition, the future-time equation (FTE) is derived to predict the Monte Carlo computational time as a result of applying forced-flight variance reduction. The solutions of the HSMEs and FTE can be used to predict Monte Carlo computational cost. Furthermore, this work also describes a discrete ordinates method to solve the forced-flight HSMEs and FTE. Several 1-D and 2-D test problems verify that the derivations are performed and implemented correctly.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of the spatial statistics of random and defined-sequence photoresist films

The resolution-line edge roughness-sensitivity tradeoff has motivated the exploration of potential improvements using defined sequence polymers and polymer-bound photoacid generators and quenchers. We characterize the internal structures of positive tone photoresist polymer films formed from defined sequence polymers and compare them with random copolymers of the same composition. We model their imaging to connect initially to developable film structures. We use a polymer packing algorithm to simulate films of diverse compositions and locations of photoacid generators and quenchers, using the composition of an ESCAP photoresist. We use a simple extreme ultraviolet exposure-deprotection algorithm to model developable image formation within them. In all cases, the spatial distribution of chemical moieties in the film for defined sequence polymers is nearly indistinguishable from random copolymers. We evaluate several exposure-deprotection scenarios and find that a defined sequence copolymer has a distinctive developable image under certain circumstances. The use of defined sequence polymers within a photoresist layer does not automatically result in improved imaging; however, they do have some characteristics different from random polymers of the same composition. Further study of these characteristics may provide a route to improved control over the nanoscale imaging process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Weather@home2 Simulations over West African Region

Weather and climate forecasting, using climate models, have become essential tools and life-savers in the West African region; in spite of the fact that climate models do not fully comply with attributes of forecast qualities—RASAP: reliability, association, skill, accuracy, and precision. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate, in comparison to CRU and ERA5 datasets, the RASAP compliance-level of the weather@home2 modeling system (w@h2). Findings from some statistical evaluations show that, to a moderately significant extent, w@h2 model provides useful information during the monsoon seasons; skills to capture the Little Dry Season over the Guinea zone; predictive skills for the onset season; ability to reproduce all the annual characteristics of the surface maximum air temperature over the region; as well as skill to detect heat waves that usually ravage West Africa during the boreal spring. The model displays traces of attributes that are needed for seasonal climate predictions and applications. Deficiencies in the quantitative reproducibility point to the facts that the model does provide a reliability akin to that of regional climate models. This paper further furnishes a prospective user with information on whether the model might be “useful or not” for a particular application.

West Africa↗