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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

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NASA NTRS1978

Updating of ADAPT predictions of sunspot activity

An eigenvector analysis procedure was used to analyze and develop algorithms for predicting sunspot numbers. The predictors in these algorithms consist of sunspot numbers from the preceding two solar cycles and magnetic index data from the preceding cycle. Predictions are presented for cycles 21 and 22. The sunspot activity for cycle 21 is predicted to remain below 100 until early 1980 when it will rapidly reach a peak of approximately 120. The two sigma accuracy on these estimates is approximately 20 sunspot numbers in the region of the peak and 10 sunspot numbers early and late in the cycle. Algorithms were also developed for predicting the period of future sunspot cycles using the same predictor vector.

Hunter, H. C.↗

NASA NTRS1978

The Space Shuttle Orbiter approach and landing tests - A correlation of flight and predicted performance data

This paper represents the results of a program in which a flight test vehicle was flown for a limited number of flights. The vehicle was the Space Shuttle Orbiter. The total free flight time for the entire flight test program was less than half an hour. The flight regime tested represented only the approach and landing phase of the vehicle's planned flight capability. The program relied heavily on an extensive wind tunnel test program to predict the aerodynamic performance data over the complete flight range, as well as to predict data tolerances. During the flight test program, short maneuvers performed were to provide flight motion data. A data extraction program was developed to produce flight derived aerodynamic performance data in coefficient form from the motion data. The resultant flight test data was correlated with the predicted data and fell within the predicted data tolerances for all phases of the subsonic flight test regime, including ground effects.

Romere, P. O.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A practical approach to helicopter internal noise prediction

A practical and well correlated procedure for predicting helicopter internal noise is presented. It accounts for the propagation of noise along multiple paths on an octave by octave basis. The method is sufficiently general to be applicable to conventional helicopters as well as other aircraft types, when the appropriate structural geometry, noise source strengths, and material acoustic properties are defined. A guide is provided for the prediction of various helicopter noise sources over a wide range of horsepower for use when measured data are not available. The method is applied to the prediction of the interior levels of the Civil Helicopter Research Aircraft (CHRA), both with and without soundproofing installed. Results include good correlation with measured levels and prediction of the speech interference level within 1.5 db at all conditions. A sample problem is also shown illustrating the use of the procedure. This example calculates the engine casing noise observed in the passenger cabin of the CHRA.

Levine, L. S.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A method for predicting full scale buffet response with rigid wind tunnel model fluctuating pressure data. Volume 2: Power spectral densities for method assessment

The predicted upper and lower bounds power spectra for all of the cases and response items given in Volume 1 are plotted. The flight test power spectra are shown on each prediction plot for the nominal value of angle of attack that most closely agrees with the flexible angle for the prediction. The flight test and prediction conditions are given in tabular form for all cases considered.

Cunningham, A. M., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1978

The prediction of fast stream front arrivals at the earth on the basis of solar wind measurements at smaller solar distances

The problems involved in the prediction of the arrival of fast solar wind streams at the earth on the basis of measurements made by space probes in the region between 0.3 and 1 AU are discussed. It is shown that arrival time predictions accurate to within a few hours that can be made at least as long as the large scale conditions on the Sun are relatively stationary as observed near the time of solar minimum. However, the latitudinal extent of the respective high speed streams is found to be important for making quantitative predictions. Coronal data sufficient for locating the sources of high speed streams can improve the precision of these predictions.

Rosenbauer, H.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Flight design system level C requirements. Solid rocket booster and external tank impact prediction processors

The prediction of the SRB and ET impact areas requires six separate processors. The SRB impact prediction processor computes the impact areas and related trajectory data for each SRB element. Output from this processor is stored on a secure file accessible by the SRB impact plot processor which generates the required plots. Similarly the ET RTLS impact prediction processor and the ET RTLS impact plot processor generates the ET impact footprints for return-to-launch-site (RTLS) profiles. The ET nominal/AOA/ATO impact prediction processor and the ET nominal/AOA/ATO impact plot processor generate the ET impact footprints for non-RTLS profiles. The SRB and ET impact processors compute the size and shape of the impact footprints by tabular lookup in a stored footprint dispersion data base. The location of each footprint is determined by simulating a reference trajectory and computing the reference impact point location. To insure consistency among all flight design system (FDS) users, much input required by these processors will be obtained from the FDS master data base.

Seale, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Initial comparison of single cylinder Stirling engine computer model predictions with test results

A NASA developed digital computer code for a Stirling engine, modelling the performance of a single cylinder rhombic drive ground performance unit (GPU), is presented and its predictions are compared to test results. The GPU engine incorporates eight regenerator/cooler units and the engine working space is modelled by thirteen control volumes. The model calculates indicated power and efficiency for a given engine speed, mean pressure, heater and expansion space metal temperatures and cooler water inlet temperature and flow rate. Comparison of predicted and observed powers implies that the reference pressure drop calculations underestimate actual pressure drop, possibly due to oil contamination in the regenerator/cooler units, methane contamination in the working gas or the underestimation of mechanical loss. For a working gas of hydrogen, the predicted values of brake power are from 0 to 6% higher than experimental values, and brake efficiency is 6 to 16% higher, while for helium the predicted brake power and efficiency are 2 to 15% higher than the experimental.

Tew, R. C., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A life prediction methodology for encapsulated solar cells

This paper presents an approach to the development of a life prediction methodology for encapsulated solar cells which are intended to operate for twenty years or more in a terrestrial environment. Such a methodology, or solar cell life prediction model, requires the development of quantitative intermediate relationships between local environmental stress parameters and the basic chemical mechanisms of encapsulant aging leading to solar cell failures. The use of accelerated/abbreviated testing to develop these intermediate relationships and in revealing failure modes is discussed. Current field and demonstration tests of solar cell arrays and the present laboratory tests to qualify solar module designs provide very little data applicable to predicting the long-term performance of encapsulated solar cells. An approach to enhancing the value of such field tests to provide data for life prediction is described.

Coulbert, C. D.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Propagation predictions for the HF-range by the Research Institute of the Deutsche Bundespost

Long term and short term HF propagation prediction service is described. The long term prediction method is computer based. The short term prediction method is still a manual method which relies mainly on a number of continuous field strength recordings and on the forecaster's ability to interpret the recordings and to combine this information with all available solar-geophysical data. Examples of the predictions are given and are compared with actually observed HF propagation conditions.

Damboldt, T.↗

NASA NTRS1979

MSFC solar activity predictions for satellite orbital lifetime estimation

The procedure to predict solar activity indexes for use in upper atmosphere density models is given together with an example of the performance. The prediction procedure employs a least square linear regression model to generate the predicted smoothed vinculum R sub 13 and geomagnetic vinculum A sub p(13) values. Linear regression equations are then employed to compute corresponding vinculum F sub 10.7(13) solar flux values from the predicted vinculum R sub 13 values. The output is issued principally for satellite orbital lifetime estimations.

Fuler, H. C.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Analysis of uncertainties in turbine metal temperature predictions

An analysis was conducted to examine the extent to which various factors influence the accuracy of analytically predicting turbine blade metal temperatures and to determine the uncertainties in these predictions for several accuracies of the influence factors. The advanced turbofan engine gas conditions of 1700 K and 40 atmospheres were considered along with those of a highly instrumented high temperature turbine test rig and a low temperature turbine rig that simulated the engine conditions. The analysis showed that the uncertainty in analytically predicting local blade temperature was as much as 98 K, or 7.6 percent of the metal absolute temperature, with current knowledge of the influence factors. The expected reductions in uncertainties in the influence factors with additional knowledge and tests should reduce the uncertainty in predicting blade metal temperature to 28 K, or 2.1 percent of the metal absolute temperature.

Stepka, F. S.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Prediction of optical propagation losses through turbulent boundary/shear layers

A simplified mathematical model was developed which predicts the optical propagation losses which occur when an optical beam of given wave length passes through a turbulent boundary layer or shear layer. The optical losses are predicted in terms of line spread function (or Strehl ratio) and modulation transfer function by using experimentally determined values of layer thickness, streamwise, lateral and beamwise density fluctuation length scales, and distribution of the standard deviation of the density fluctuations through the turbulent layer. The prediction model was applied to the analysis of a number of selected cases of interest from the aerodynamic-optical interaction wind-tunnel investigation conducted in the NASA-Ames 1.83 x 1.83 meter (6 x 6 ft) wind tunnel. Direct optical measurements are compared with the results predicted by the aerodynamic analysis.

Verhoff, A.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Climatological relationships of severe duststorms in the Great Plains to synoptic weather patterns: A potential for predictability

A data base provided by 35 severe duststorms that occurred between 1968 and 1977 in the central and southern Great Plains allowed construction of a classification scheme of meteorological causes of duststorms, and a telescopic forecast technique for medium range (6 to 48 hour) prediction of severe cyclogenic duststorms. In addition, areal coverage definitions for duststorms based on characteristics of the storms, and a hierarchy of weather causes of severe duststorms were developed. The man machine mix forecast correctly predicted six of seven duststorms observed during the 1976-77 winter, with one overforecast; the machine-only forecast correctly predicted four of the seven duststorms, with one overforecast. Both techniques had problems correctly predicting the duration of severe duststorms.

Woiceshyn, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Cumulative fade statistics and prediction methods associated with the COMSTAR beacon signal at 28.56 GHz

The paper presents cumulative fade statistics for the period April 1977 to March 1978 and reviews the rain attenuation predictive efforts using radar and disdrometer data for the summer of 1977. Attention is given to the receiving and radar systems as well as the disdrometer-raingage system. Discussion of the fade statistics covers the yearly, monthly and time of day statistics. Consideration is given to measured and predicted attenuation events, measured and predicted probability distributions as well as an empirical calibration adjustment. It is noted that in spite of many reasons for noncorrelation, the radar results do correlate well. Finally, it is concluded that the results demonstrate the utility of using radar coupled with disdrometer measurements for predicting individual fade events as well as long term fade distributions associated with satellite communications through rain.

Goldhirsh, J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Skylab orbital lifetime prediction and decay analysis

A record (from preflight planning to earth impact) of skylab's orbital lifetime predictions, its actual decay and analysis are presented. Skylab provided a unique opportunity to develop, confirm and check out procedures and computer programs used for predicting lifetime and reentry. It provided verification of aerodynamic environment which was predicted for several aerodynamic configurations. It also provided data on the density model's reaction to rapidly changing solar flux over relatively short time periods. The effects of solar flux (and the uncertainty in the solar flux predictions) on orbital lifetime are discussed.

Dreher, P. E.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Predicted and measured effects of pressure and crossflow velocity on composite propellant burning rate

A theoretical model for prediction of burning rates of composite (ammonium perchlorate oxidizer) solid propellants as a function of pressure and crossflow velocity was developed. Included in this model is the capability for treatment of multimodal oxidizer particle sizes and metalized formulations. In addition, an experimental device for measuring the effects of crossflow velocity on propellant burning rate was developed and used to characterize a series of AP/HTPB propellants with systematically varied formulation parameters. Model predictions of zero-crossflow burning rate versus pressure characteristics were found to be in agreement with data, while the agreement between erosive burning predictions and data is, in general, good. The experimental data indicate that the dominant factor influencing the sensitivity of composite propellant burning rate to crossflow is the base (no-crossflow) burning rate versus pressure characteristics of the propellant (lower base burning rate leading to increased crossflow sensitivity). Finally, the model was used to examine the effects of motor scaling on erosive burning: erosive burning is predicted to diminish with increasing motor size, in agreement with experience.

King, M. K.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Prediction of initiation of low and high explosive fillers due to fragment or projectile impact

A methodology is presented which provides predictions for the probability of initiation of explosion in high explosive filled warheads and in propellant filled rocket motor cases given the impact of compact fragments or of small projectiles. Equations of velocities at which 50 percent of the explosive filled cases will initiate either high or low order are developed for compact fragments, and for projectiles. These data are used to establish the standard deviation of the data from the 50 percent initiation line. Standard deviation is used to provide predictions of the probability of initiation given the impact velocity and other pertinent parameters using equations and logic which are established in a computer model. This computer model uses fragment material properties and encounter parameters to predict fragment impact initiation, and projectile and casing material properties and encounter parameters to predict projectile impact initiation.

Zabel, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1981

A crack-closure model for predicting fatigue-crack growth under aircraft spectrum loading

The development and application of an analytical model of cycle crack growth is presented that includes the effects of crack closure. The model was used to correlate crack growth rates under constant amplitude loading and to predict crack growth under aircraft spectrum loading on 2219-T851 aluminum alloy sheet material. The predicted crack growth lives agreed well with experimental data. The ratio of predicted to experimental lives ranged from 0.66 to 1.48. These predictions were made using data from an ASTM E24.06.01 Round Robin.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗