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A Method for Estimating the Probability of Floating Gate Prompt Charge Loss in a Radiation Environment
Because advancing technology has been producing smaller structures in electronic circuits, the floating gates in modern flash memories are becoming susceptible to prompt charge loss from ionizing radiation environments found in space. A method for estimating the risk of a charge-loss event is given.
Probability Estimates of Solar Proton Doses During Periods of Low Sunspot Number for Short Duration Missions
In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers.
An Upper Bound on Orbital Debris Collision Probability When Only One Object Has Position Uncertainty Information
No abstract available
A Method for Estimating the Probability of Floating Gate Prompt Charge Loss in a Radiation Environment
Since advancing technology has been producing smaller structures in electronic circuits, the floating gates in modern flash memories are becoming susceptible to prompt charge loss from ionizing radiation environments found in space. A method for estimating the risk of a charge-loss event is given.
Time Dependence of Collision Probabilities During Satellite Conjunctions: Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis
No abstract available
Remediating Non-Positive Definite State Covariances for Collision Probability Estimation
No abstract available
Optimization of Second Fault Detection Thresholds to Maximize Mission Probability of Success
No abstract available
Bayesian Methods for Longitudinal Trending in Probabilities of Collision
Satellites have become an integral part of modern life, supporting phone communication, television and radio broadcasting, internet access, and military activities. Indeed, it is difficult to imagine modern society without many of these technologies, especially in an age when the world is increasingly interconnected via long-distance communications. As of 2013, there were over one thousand operational satellites in orbit about Earth. About half of these active satellites are in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO, meaning an orbital period less than 225 minutes), which is where the International Space Station (ISS) conducts operations, along with other commercial missions such as earth observation and satellite telephone communications. An increasing amount of attention is being placed on protecting satellites in LEO, as the frequency of object launches and satellite fragmentation events has contributed to the proliferation of space debris, resulting in increased congestion.
MOA-2012-BLG-505Lb: A Super-Earth-Mass Planet that Probably Resides in the Galactic Bulge
We report the discovery of a super-Earth-mass planet in the microlensing event MOA-2012-BLG-505. This event has the second shortest event timescale of t(sub E) = 10 ± 1 days where the observed data show evidence of a planetary companion. Our 15 minute high cadence survey observation schedule revealed the short subtle planetary signature. The system shows the well known close/wide degeneracy. The planet/host-star mass ratio is q = 2.1 × 10(exp −4) and the projected separation normalized by the Einstein radius is s = 1.1 or 0.9 for the wide and close solutions, respectively. We estimate the physical parameters of the system by using a Bayesian analysis and find that the lens consists of a super-Earth with a mass of 6.7(sup +10.7)(sub -3.6) Mꚛ orbiting around a brown dwarf or late-M-dwarf host with a mass of 0.10(sup +0.16)(sub -0.05) Mꙩ with a projected star–planet separation of 0.9(sup +0.3)(sub -0.2) au. The system is at a distance of 7.2 ± 1.1 kpc, i.e., it is likely to be in the Galactic bulge. The small angular Einstein radius (θ(sub E) = 0.12 ± 0.02 mas) and short event timescale are typical for a low-mass lens in the Galactic bulge. Such low-mass planetary systems in the Bulge are rare because the detection efficiency of planets in short microlensing events is relatively low. This discovery may suggest that such low-mass planetary systems are abundant in the Bulge and currently ongoing high cadence survey programs will detect more such events and may reveal an abundance of such planetary systems.
Probability of Decompression Sickness and Venous Gas Emboli from 49 NASA Hypobaric Chamber Tests with Reference to Exploration Atmosphere
Introduction: Decompression sickness (DCS) is a complex biophysical event; it combines human perception of pain, for instance, and the presence of a gas phase in the tissues. Living tissues are complex and dynamic. Micronuclei and later bubbles may or may not form given what appears to be the same conditions. Even when bubbles grow, symptoms may or may not develop under what appears to be the same conditions. Therefore, at this time it is appropriate to consider DCS as a probabilistic rather than a deterministic event. Methods: Probabilistic models about hypobaric DCS and venous gas emboli (VGE) require a large amount of quality research data, a definition of decompression dose using physical and physiologic variables, and a flexible analytical approach that can quantify the association between each outcome and all covariates of interest (assuming independence between DCS and VGE) and then ultimately be extended to acknowledge dependencies between DCS and VGE. Our DCS and VGE data are from 1,031 hypobaric decompressions from 1983 to 2016. A total of 577 humans participated in 49 hypobaric chamber tests to evaluate denitrogenation procedures used by astronauts in the Space Shuttle and International Space Station programs. We defined decompression dose as the ratio of computed nitrogen tension in a theoretical 360-minute half-time compartment to ambient pressure, which accounts for denitrogenation and exposure pressure as well as explanatory variables such as age, sex, body mass index, and the presence or absence of ambulation as part of exercise at the exposure pressure. A parametric survival model, using a log-logistic distribution, was used to quantify the time to development of DCS, VGE, and Grade IV VGE. Results: Our survival estimates are applicable to simple hypobaric decompressions, such as depressurizations in 5 to 30 minutes to exposure pressures between 4 and 10 pounds per square inch absolute (psia) and after minutes to hours of denitrogenation, either under resting or exercise conditions to accelerated denitrogenation. The regressions are applicable to exposures between 2 to 6 hours and under conditions of ambulation or no ambulation as part of exercise at the test pressure. We estimate that an exposure to 4.3 psia with simulated extravehicular activity (EVA) that includes ambulation after equilibration to the exploration atmosphere at 8.2 psia with a 34% oxygen atmosphere will result in 3.1% DCS (1.8% to 5.2 95% confidence interval), 23.2% VGE (16.7 to 31.2%), and 8.5% Grade IV VGE (4.7 to 14.7%) in equal samples of men and women exposed for 6 hours. Discussion: Probabilistic models for DCS, VGE, and Grade IV VGE can be used to inform those that plan future EVAs. Their applications are useful to quantify the risk of DCS and VGE in astronauts that perform EVAs in low-pressure space suits while in space or while exploring the surfaces of the moon or Mars.
Automation of the Uncertainty Quantification Process Based on Probability Boxes with DAKOTA
To date, while the use of CFD is prevalent, very few efforts have been undertaken that truly attempt to document all (or even most) of the sources of uncertainty in the simulations. Instead, the current state-of-the-art relies heavily on the experience of the CFD practitioner to estimate the uncertainty associated with their simulations through simple sensitivity studies or subject matter expertise. This practice will have to be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification (UQ) process if CFD is to play an expanded role in the design research and engineering community, test and evaluation community, and ultimately certification for flight. This is especially true for hypersonic air-breathing propulsion systems due to the environment, scale, and duration limitations of ground test facilities. Accounting for uncertainties in a formal manner is a tedious process. Moreover, the typical CFD practitioner is not likely to be familiar with formal UQ methods. Hence, a major obstacle that has prevented the adoption of UQ methods for engineering design and development work is the lack of a tool set to automate most (if not all) of the UQ workflow. Towards this end, the SANDIA package DAKOTA (which has been developed to drive both UQ and optimization processes) will be tightly wrapped around the VULCAN-CFD code to automate the uncertainty quantification process. The automated process will be applied to an isolator turbulence model validation exercise that has previously been documented using a manual approach to the UQ process. Hence, the focus of this paper will be documenting the level to which automation can hide the UQ process details from the CFD practitioner rather than the UQ method itself.
Automation of the Uncertainty Quantification Process Based on Probability Boxes with DAKOTA
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Probability of overlap for footprints of satellites flying in formation
The general problem of determining footprint overlap for instruments on different platforms was analyzed by determining the formation flying and pointing requirements needed to satisfy the science requirements of the CloudSat and Picasso-CENA missions.
Orbit Determination and Estimation of Impact Probability for Near Earth Objects
Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are asteroids and comets that have been nudged by the gravitational attraction of nearby planets into orbits that allow them to enter the Earth's neighborhood.
Predicting Close Approaches and Estimating Impact Probabilities for Near Earth Objects
Recent popular movies have raised public consciousness of the very real possibility of a comet or asteroid collision with the Earth.