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DOE OSTI2022

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of natural zeolites on field-scale geologic noble gas transport

Improving predictive models for noble gas transport through natural materials at the field-scale is an essential component of improving US nuclear monitoring capabilities. Several field-scale experiments with a gas transport component have been conducted at the Nevada National Security Site (Non-Proliferation Experiment, Underground Nuclear Explosion Signatures Experiment). However, the models associated with these experiments have not treated zeolite minerals as gas adsorbing phases. This is significant as zeolites are a common alteration mineral with a high abundance at these field sites and are shown here to significantly fractionate noble gases during field-scale transport. This fractionation and associated retardation can complicate gas transport predictions by reducing the signal-to-noise ratio to the detector (e.g. mass spectrometers or radiation detectors) enough to mask the signal or make the data difficult to interpret. Omitting adsorption-related retardation data of noble gases in predictive gas transport models therefore results in systematic errors in model predictions where zeolites are present.Herein is presented noble gas adsorption data collected on zeolitized and non-zeolitized tuff. Experimental results were obtained using a unique piezometric adsorption system designed and built for this study. Data collected were then related to pure-phase mineral analyses conducted on clinoptilolite, mordenite, and quartz. These results quantify the adsorption capacity of materials present in field-scale systems, enabling the modeling of low-permeability rocks as significant sorption reservoirs vital to bulk transport predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Computational budget optimization for Bayesian parameter estimation in heavy-ion collisions

Abstract Bayesian parameter estimation provides a systematic approach to compare heavy-ion collision models with measurements, leading to constraints on the properties of nuclear matter with proper accounting of experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Aside from statistical and systematic model uncertainties, interpolation uncertainties can also play a role in Bayesian inference, if the model’s predictions can only be calculated at a limited set of model parameters. This uncertainty originates from using an emulator to interpolate the model’s prediction across a continuous space of parameters. In this work, we study the trade-offs between the emulator (interpolation) and statistical uncertainties. We perform the analysis using spatial eccentricities from the T R ENTo model of initial conditions for nuclear collisions. Given a fixed computational budget, we study the optimal compromise between the number of parameter samples and the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample. For the observables and parameters used in the present study, we find that the best constraints are achieved when the number of parameter samples is slightly smaller than the number of collisions simulated per parameter sample.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Support for Reactor Operators in Case of Cyber-Security Threats (NEUP Final Report)

Increasing use of digital technology in nuclear power plants (NPPs) poses cyber-security as a crucial threat to public safety and to continuous energy production. Cyber-security risks are comprised of complex known and unknown interactions between various entities, system vulnerabilities, network protocols, human users and malicious attacks. There is little understanding or research geared towards plant operators’ response under cyber-security threats and operational procedures to cope with such threats. This is particularly critical when a cyber-security event masquerades as a safety incident or an evolving accident. Instead of leading operators to the remediation of the accident, the masked cyber event may lead them to circumvent the safety mechanisms of the plant. Given these challenges, the objective of this project is to develop a tool to characterize abnormal NPP events as “cyber” or “safety” incidents, and to further develop this tool as a real-time operator aid to assist in response to the incident. This NEUP Final Report summarizes the research efforts towards the above goals and the results in the following three aspects. First, a methodology for classifying abnormal NPP events as cyber-attacks or safety incidents was developed. This provides the basis for responding to potential cyber-attacks. In this methodology, the causal relationships between various variables (i.e., physical variables, network variables, and control variables) for a nuclear system under consideration are modeled using dynamic Bayesian networks. Based on observations of certain variables (i.e., the evidence), inference is performed to identify the state of hidden variables, which helps indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety incidents. The proposed methodology was applied to the full scope NPP simulator system at The Ohio State University as a case study. The result shows that the proposed methodology is capable of distinguishing between cyber-attacks and safety incidents. Second, a game-theoretic approach for responding to cyber-attacks on nuclear power plants was developed. This is the second major goal of the project, and the method is used to recommend optimal responses to reactor operators in the case of cyber-attacks. We consider two cases in this research. In the first case, the interaction between the defender (i.e., the reactor operator) and the attacker is modeled as a two-player, nonzero-sum, Markov game with an infinite time horizon. In the second case, we consider a semi-Markov game between the defender and the attacker within a finite time horizon. The model in the second case enables us to consider the time sensitive response of the defender. In each case, the method for deriving the Nash equilibrium is developed. The Nash Equilibrium of the game provides the valid prediction of both players’ actions because no single player can benefit from unilaterally deviating from the equilibrium policy if the other player adheres to his/hers, hence it provides the best response of the defender to cyber-attacks. The proposed method in each case is demonstrated through a simplified benchmark digital feedwater control system. Third, a prototype display is developed to integrate the above information. The prototype display depicts the communication information to the operator and incorporates the cyber-security tool developed by the team into the interface. It consists of the regular display in current control rooms, as well as a panel used to indicate the occurrence of cyber-attacks or safety events and a panel used to guide the operator’s response to detected cyber-attacks.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accelerating Nuclear Fuels and Materials Qualification by Multi-Level Irradiation Experiment Campaign

The advanced reactor technologies feature fuels, coolants, and materials that promise safer operating conditions under normal and accident scenarios. However, the nuclear fuels and materials qualifications require several decades (for example, new reactor fuel qualification from conceptualization requires about 20 years). Therefore, accelerating nuclear fuels and materials qualification is essential, and it can be achieved by combining high through-put materials irradiation and testing, advanced post-irradiation examinations, and Multiphysics modeling. This paper addressed the associated challenges in accelerating nuclear fuels and material qualification for new and advanced reactor designs, which differ based on fuel, coolant, operating conditions, and structural materials. These challenges vary for radiation level, operating conditions (e.g., temperature and pressure), and coolant type (e.g., corrosion environment). In addition, the challenges and limitations in modeling tools, experimental facilities, and licensing guidelines are also discussed, and a general solution path forward is recommended.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Presentation: Accelerating Nuclear Fuels and Materials Qualification by Multi-Level Irradiation Experiment Campaign

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

The γ -process nucleosynthesis in core-collapse supernovae

The γ-process nucleosynthesis in core-collapse supernovae is generally accepted as a feasible process for the synthesis of neutron-deficient isotopes beyond iron. However, crucial discrepancies between theory and observations still exist: the average yields of γ-process nucleosynthesis from massive stars are still insufficient to reproduce the solar distribution in galactic chemical evolution calculations, and the yields of the Mo and Ru isotopes are a factor of ten lower than the yields of the other γ-process nuclei. We investigate the γ-process in five sets of core-collapse supernova models published in the literature with initial masses of 15, 20, and 25 M ⊙ at solar metallicity. We compared the γ-process overproduction factors from the different models. To highlight the possible effect of nuclear physics input, we also considered 23 ratios of two isotopes close to each other in mass relative to their solar values. Further, we investigated the contribution of C–O shell mergers in the supernova progenitors as an additional site of the γ-process. Our analysis shows that a large scatter among the different models exists for both the γ-process integrated yields and the isotopic ratios. We find only ten ratios that agree with their solar values, all the others differ by at least a factor of three from the solar values in all the considered sets of models. The γ-process within C–O shell mergers mostly influences the isotopic ratios that involve intermediate and heavy proton-rich isotopes with A > 100. We conclude that there are large discrepancies both among the different data sets and between the model predictions and the solar abundance distribution. More calculations are needed; particularly updating the nuclear network, because the majority of the models considered in this work do not use the latest reaction rates for the γ-process nucleosynthesis. Moreover, the role of C–O shell mergers requires further investigation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Theory and Empirical Models of Pionless Neutrino-Argon Scattering in GENIE

Neutrino event generators require a delicate balance between theory and empirically-driven models to achieve reliable simulations. GENIE is the most commonly used generator, bridging theory and experiment in modern neutrino physics. Its flexible framework makes it ideal for comparing different models across all aspects of neutrino interactions—from the nuclear ground state and primary vertex to final-state interactions. Recently, GENIE has incorporated several state-of-the-art, theory-driven models, including spectral-function descriptions of the nuclear ground state, axial form factors from first-principles lattice QCD calculations, and the Liège intranuclear cascade model for simulating final-state interactions. Compared to the previous baseline models in GENIE—such as the local Fermi gas, dipole-like axial form factor, and hA final-state interaction model—the new implementations are more physically realistic and incorporate more complete physics, including nuclear de-excitation. This poster presents the implementation of new models in GENIE and their performance in comparisons among these models against recent MicroBooNE cross-section measurements.

Liu, Liang [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000026753925X)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Benchmarking State-of-the-Art Theory and Empirical Models of Pionless Neutrino-Argon Scattering in GENIE

Liu, Liang [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000026753925X)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electronic Structure and Mechanical Properties of Solvated Montmorillonite Clay Using Large-Scale DFT Method

Montmorillonite clay (MMT) has been widely used in engineering and environmental applications as a landfill barrier and toxic waste repository due to its unique property as an expandable clay mineral that can absorb water easily. This absorption process rendered MMT to be highly exothermic due to electrostatic interactions among molecules and hydrogen bonds between surface atoms. A detailed study of a large supercell model of structural clay enables us to predict long-term nuclear waste storage. Herein, a large solvent MMT model with 4071 atoms is studied using ab initio density functional theory. The DFT calculation and analysis clarify the important issues, such as bond strength, solvation effect, elasticity, and seismic wave velocities. These results are compared to our previous study on crystalline MMT (dry). The solvated MMT has reduced shear modulus (G), bulk modulus (K), and Young’s modulus (E). We observe that the conduction band (CB) in the density of states (DOS) of solvated MMT model has a single, conspicuous peak at –8.5 eV. Moreover, the atom-resolved partial density of states (PDOS) summarizes the roles played by each atom in the DOS. These findings illuminate numerous potential sophisticated applications of MMT clay.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic Fission Gas Release Uncertainty Induced by Microstructure Data

Fission Gas Release (FGR) is an important engineering safety parameter for nuclear fuel. While fuel performance modeling with BISON currently relies on mechanistic models to predict it, comparison with experimental data shows both under or over prediction depending on operation mode (steady or transient).Predicting microstructure data is essential to accurately predicts the engineering scale parameters. An important source of uncertainty in mechanistic models arises from the missing captured physics. Continuous validation and refinement of these models against experimental data are also necessary to ensure their reliability and accuracy in predicting engineering parameters.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Localizing tetrahedral aluminum in nitrate-bearing gibbsite to constrain defect-impurity coupling

The enhanced radiolytic stability of gibbsite (α-Al(OH) 3 ) containing trace nitrate (NO 3 − ) is a phenomenon in nuclear waste management, but its structural origins remain unresolved. Motivated by the detection of minority tetrahedral aluminum (T d ) defects in synthetic gibbsite, we hypothesized that these sites may participate in NO 3 − retention or mediate H 2 suppression. To evaluate this, we combined orthogonal techniques comprised of spatially selective solid-state 27 Al MAS NMR, comparative spectroscopy, and density functional theory (DFT) modeling. Paramagnetic editing and dynamic nuclear polarization (DNP) MAS NMR confirm that T d defects are confined to the particle interior. DFT calculations reveal no energetic stabilization of NO 3 − near T d sites. Comparative NMR analysis shows that T d is also present in chloride-bearing gibbsite, which exhibits high radiolytic hydrogen yields. These three independent disqualifications rule out T d as a structural contributor to nitrate-mediated suppression and narrow the scope of defect-driven explanations. The findings redirect mechanistic attention away from coordination defects and toward redox-active impurity pathways, providing a refined foundation for understanding radiation tolerance in Al(OH) 3 .

Graham, Trent R. [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Study of Type-I X-ray Bursts to Nuclear Reaction Rates

Type-I X-ray bursts are frequently occurring thermonuclear runaways on the surface of an accreting neutron star. The different nuclear reactions that empower the cataclysmic event play a key role in accurately comparing theoretical models and observations. We investigate the effect of the uncertainties in the nuclear reactions using a ONEZONE model for a set of different compositions and accretion rates that are within the range of the standard observed burst sources. A combination of a full-reaction network and a semi-analytic model is used to obtain the conditions at the time of X-ray burst ignition via simulating the settling process of the accreted material. We then evaluate the sensitivity of the X-ray burst model by varying the proton and alpha-induced reaction rates in JINA REACLIBV2.2 within representative nuclear physics uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

First direct measurement of the 13 $\mathrm{N(α, ρ)}$ 16 $\mathrm{O}$ reaction relevant for core-collapse supernovae nucleosynthesis

We report that understanding the explosion mechanism of a core-collapse supernova (CCSN) is important to accurately model CCSN scenarios for different progenitor stars using model-observation comparisons. The uncertainties of various nuclear reaction rates relevant for CCSN scenarios strongly affect the accuracy of these stellar models. Out of these reactions, the 13 N(α, p) 16 O reaction has been found to affect various stages of a CCSN at varying temperatures. This work presents the first direct measurement of the 13 N(α, p) 16 O reaction performed using a 34.6 MeV beam of radioactive 13 N ions and the active-target detector MUSIC (MUlti-Sampling Ionization Chamber) at Argonne National Laboratory. The resulting total 13 N(α, p) 16 O reaction cross sections from this measurement in the center-of-mass energy range of 3.26 - 6.02 MeV are presented and compared with calculations using the Hauser-Feshbach formalism. Uncertainties in the reaction rate have been dramatically reduced at CCSN temperatures.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-Performance Computational Modeling of Strong Ground Motion for Seismic Response Analysis with Implications for High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSSNLV-015-19, Year 2

Presentation to be given at the FY 2020 SDRD Annual Meeting, to be held Sept. 23-24, on WebEx. There is one video also attached. This presentation is a reduced slide deck of the recently STIPped version, DOE/NV/03624--0875, presented 9-15-20 at the work in progress seminar. High-Performance Computational Modeling of Strong Ground Motion for Seismic Response Analysis with Implications for High-Hazard and/or Nuclear Facilities and Critical Infrastructure at the NNSSNLV-015-19, Year 2

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Controlling extrapolations of nuclear properties with feature selection

Predictions of nuclear properties far from measured data are inherently inaccurate because of uncertainties in our knowledge of nuclear forces and in our treatment of quantum many-body effects in strongly-interacting systems. While the model bias can be directly calculated when experimental data is available, only an estimate can be made in the absence of such measurements. Current approaches to compute the estimated bias quickly lose predictive power when their input variables are taken far from the training region, resulting in uncontrolled uncertainties in applications such as nucleosynthesis simulations. In this letter, we present a novel technique to identify the input variables of machine learning algorithms that can provide robust estimates of model bias. Our process is based on selecting input variables, or features, based on their probability distribution functions across the entire nuclear chart. We illustrate our approach on the problem of quantifying the model bias in nuclear binding energies calculated with Density Functional Theory (DFT). We prove that building model biases with only Z and N as features leads to highly unreliable extrapolations. Conversely, we show that proper feature selection can systematically improve theoretical predictions without increasing uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

BISON TRISO Modeling Advancements and Validation to AGR-1 Data

BISON is a finite element-based nuclear fuel performance code. Among its unique characteristics are its ability to model 1D, 2D, and 3D geometries and its applicability to a wide variety of nuclear fuels. For the last eight years, BISON has included a beginning capability to model tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel. Recently, interest in TRISO fuel has grown, and a significant effort has been made to improve BISON’s capabilities in this area. Capability development has occurred for each material present in TRISO fuel particles: the buffer, inner pyrolytic carbon, silicon carbide, and outer pyrolytic carbon layers, as well as the fuel kernel. New elastic, creep, swelling, thermal expansion, thermal conductivity, and fission gas release (FGR) models are available. New models for the graphite matrix are also now available. Another important addition is the ability to perform statistical failure analysis of large samples of fuel particles. This new capability, which continues to grow, enables evaluation of failure due to pressure or crack formation by analyzing many thousands of particles. This enables realistic calculations of fission product release from the many particles in a TRISO-fueled reactor. These capabilities were checked via regression and verification tests. A large number of code benchmarking problems were also run, showing that BISON’s results closely match those of other software tools. Finally, a significant validation effort was completed in which fission product release, measured as part of the AGR-1 capsule experiments, was compared to BISON outputs. BISON outputs compared very well to the experimental data and to PARFUME results. Interest in BISON’s TRISO capabilities is growing, with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and Westinghouse Electric Company receiving training during the past year. Multiple other entities have expressed interest in or are actively using BISON. Kairos Power, LLC, has a strong partnership with Idaho National Laboratory (INL) regarding the use of BISON for TRISO analysis. While its capabilities still continue to grow, BISON has already become a powerful tool for TRISO analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Generalized Nuclear Code of Accounts for Cost Estimation Standardization

This is a joint INL-EPRI study. Link to corresponding page at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI): https://www.epri.com/research/products/000000003002028937 Recent Advanced Reactor (AR) designs typically offer features and attributes that depart from traditional water-cooled reactors in terms of fuel forms, coolants, structural materials, size, safety margins, and other important design and operational aspects. These departures, relative to the industry experience, will likely present a challenge for potential owner-operators when evaluating one or more AR designs for commercial deployment on a like-for-like basis. This is further exacerbated with new classes of reactors gaining prominence (e.g., microreactors) and new emerging applications (e.g., floating barge reactors or space propulsion reactors). The differences in design-specific technologies are compounded by the differences in approach to cost estimation. The lack of consistency in build up toward cost estimates creates a challenge when comparing competing concepts and evaluating their associated cost drivers. The outcome of a 2019 Scoping Study conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) indicated the need for a cost modeling guide (CMG), which would be underpinned by a technology-neutral and inclusive Generalized Nuclear Code of Accounts (GN-COA). A code of accounts (COA) is a tool by which costs are identified in even more specific categories, providing clarity on what specific costs are included in an estimate. A parallel independent effort was meanwhile taking place at Idaho National Laboratory via funding by the Systems Analysis Integration (SA&I) campaign of the Office of Nuclear Energy under the U.S. Department of Energy (U.S. DOE-NE) to also update the COA structure to enable more flexibility and encompass a wider variety of reactor technologies. After being made aware of these synergistic efforts, the two parties decided to combine efforts and develop a joint new standard format for nuclear cost estimation that builds on previous structures. This document describes the development of this joint GN-COA and provides guidance on the implementation of the tool, which is provided as the associated GN-COA Excel document. The main attributes of this novel COA format are that all items are functionally defined (in order to be technology and application agnostic) and grouped into logical arrangements that facilitate the tabulation of costs for reactor constructions under consideration. The intent is for the GN-COA to form a standard that is endorsed by future vendors and customers.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗