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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Active Learning for Failure Estimation of TRISO Nuclear Fuel

The Tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel is a robust nuclear fuel proposed to be used for multiple modern nuclear technologies. Therefore, characterizing its safety is vital for the reliable operation of nuclear technologies. However, the TRISO fuel failure probabilities are small and the computational model is time consuming to evaluate them using traditional Monte Carlo-type approaches. In the paper, we present a multifidelity active learning approach to efficiently estimate small failure probabilities given an expensive computational model. Active learning suggests the next best training set for optimal subsequent predictive performance and multifidelity modeling uses cheaper low-fidelity models to approximate the high-fidelity model output. After presenting the multifidelity active learning approach, we apply it to efficiently predict TRISO failure probability and make comparisons to the reference results.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Superconductivity in the bilayer Hubbard model: Two Fermi surfaces are better than one

Fully occupied or unoccupied bands in a solid are often considered inert and irrelevant to a material's low-energy properties. But the discovery of enhanced superconductivity in heavily electron-doped FeSe-derived superconductors poses questions about the possible role of incipient bands (those laying close to but not crossing the Fermi level) in pairing. To answer this question, researchers have studied pairing correlations in the bilayer Hubbard model, which has an incipient band for large interlayer hopping t⊥, using many-body perturbation theory and variational methods. They have generally found that superconductivity is enhanced as one of the bands approaches the Lifshitz transition and even when it becomes incipient. Here we address this question using the nonperturbative quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) dynamical cluster approximation (DCA) to study the bilayer Hubbard model's pairing correlations. We find that the model has robust s± pairing correlations in the large t⊥ limit, which can become stronger as one band is made incipient. While this behavior is linked to changes in the effective interaction, we further find that it is counteracted by a suppression of the intrinsic pair-field susceptibility and does not translate to an increased Tc. Our results demonstrate that the highest achievable transition temperatures in the bilayer Hubbard model occur when the system has two bands crossing the Fermi level.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

A numerical study of the spectral radiative properties of packed bed with mixed bauxite and silica spheres

Bauxite and silica particles have gained increasing attention for applications in the field of concentrated solar power. In this work, a Monte Carlo ray-tracing simulation is performed to predict the radiative properties (absorptance, reflectance, and transmittance) of packed beds with mixed bauxite and silica spherical particles at wavelengths of 0.5, 2.6, 9.0, and 9.35 µm. These wavelengths are representative for the visible, near-infrared, and the mid-infrared regions that are important for solar and thermal radiation, respectively. A repeating unit-column approach is used to mathematically represent the particle bed. The effects of particle mixing ratio, volume fraction, and wavelength on the predicted radiative properties are examined. The obtained radiative properties are inputted to an inverse method to retrieve the effective absorption and scattering coefficients as well as the scattering albedo, which may be later used in a continuous-scale radiative heat transfer analysis. Furthermore, the independent scattering model is used to obtain the absorption coefficient and scattering albedo based on the absorption and scattering cross sections predicted by a Monte Carlo algorithm for a single particle. It is shown that the independent scattering model underpredicts the scattering coefficient for opaque particles but overpredicts the scattering coefficient for semitransparent particles for sufficiently high particle volume fractions. Here, the radiative properties calculated from the independent scattering model are compared to the full Monte Carlo simulation of the particle bed to examine the influence of particle mixing on dependent scattering.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Model-Based, Bayesian Solution for Characterization of Complex Damage Scenarios in Aerospace Composite Structures

Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined.

H. Reed↗
NASA NTRS1993

Study of multi-dimensional radiative energy transfer in molecular gases

The Monte Carlo method (MCM) is applied to analyze radiative heat transfer in nongray gases. The nongray model employed is based on the statistical arrow band model with an exponential-tailed inverse intensity distribution. Consideration of spectral correlation results in some distinguishing features of the Monte Carlo formulations. Validation of the Monte Carlo formulations has been conducted by comparing results of this method with other solutions. Extension of a one-dimensional problem to a multi-dimensional problem requires some special treatments in the Monte Carlo analysis. Use of different assumptions results in different sets of Monte Carlo formulations. The nongray narrow band formulations provide the most accurate results.

Liu, Jiwen↗
DOE OSTI2021

Neutronics Calculation Advances at Los Alamos: Manhattan Project to Monte Carlo

The history and advances of neutronics calculations at Los Alamos during the Manhattan Project through the present are reviewed. Substantial improvements to neutron diffusion methods and the invention of both the Monte Carlo neutron transport methods in 1947 and deterministic discrete ordinates Sn in 1953 were all made at Los Alamos just after the Manhattan Project. We briefly summarize early simpler and more approximate neutronics methods and then describe the need to better predict neutronics behavior through consideration of theoretical equations, models and algorithms, experimental measurements, and available computing capabilities and their limitations. This paper briefly covers key advances in deterministic methods during the Manhattan Project. These capabilities, coupled with increasing postwar defense needs and the invention of electronic computing with the Electronic Numeric Integrator and Computer, known as ENIAC, and the Mathematical Analyzer Numerical Integrator and Automatic Computer Model, known as MANIAC, led to the creation of Monte Carlo and deterministic discrete ordinates neutronics transport methods. We note the important role that the scientific comradery between the Los Alamos scientists played in the process. This paper briefly covers the early methods, algorithms, computers, and electronic and women pioneers that enabled Monte Carlo to spread to all areas of science. We focus heavily on these early developments and the subsequent creation of the MCNP® code, advances in its associated nuclear data, and its applications to problems of national defense at Los Alamos.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Relativistic effects in Green's function Monte Carlo calculations of neutrino-nucleus scattering

Here, microscopic calculations of neutrino-nucleus scattering cross sections are critical for the success of the neutrino-oscillation program. In addition to retaining nuclear correlations in the initial and final state of the reaction, they are based on consistent nuclear interactions and transition current operators, thereby enabling robust uncertainty quantification. In this work, we address a significant limitation of these microscopic methods, which arises from their nonrelativistic nature. By performing the calculations in a reference frame that minimizes nucleon momenta and utilizing the so-called two-fragment model, we extend the applicability of Green's function Monte Carlo calculations of neutrino-nucleus scattering to higher momenta than currently possible. To validate this approach, we compare our theoretical predictions against inclusive data measured by the MiniBooNE, T2K, and MINER ν A experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1993

The injection and acceleration of particles in oblique shocks - A unified Monte Carlo description

Important problems are discussed concerning the effects of shock geometry on the injection of thermal particles and the process of standard Fermi particle acceleration in general. In pursuit of a self-consistent model that simultaneously describes shock structure and particle acceleration in shocks of arbitrary obliquity, a Monte Carlo simulation developed for parallel shocks is generalized to address oblique geometries. Attention is given to initial results concerning the ways in which injection and acceleration efficiency varies with obliquity and Mach number.

Baring, Matthew G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Correlation effects in magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene: An auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo study

Magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene (MATBG) presents a fascinating platform for investigating the effects of electron interactions in topological flat bands. The Bistritzer-MacDonald (BM) model provides a simplified quantitative description of the flat bands. Introducing long-range Coulomb interactions leads to an interacting BM (IBM) Hamiltonian, a momentum-space continuum description which offers a very natural starting point for many-body studies of MATBG. Accurate and reliable many-body computations in the IBM model are challenging, however, and have been limited mostly to special fillings or smaller lattice sizes. We employ a state-of-the-art auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC) method to study the IBM model, which constrains the sign problem to enable accurate treatment of large system sizes. We determine ground-state properties and quantify errors compared to mean-field theory calculations. Our calculations identify correlated metal states and their competition with the insulating Kramers intervalley-coherent state at both half-filling and charge neutrality. Additionally, we investigate one- and three-quarter fillings, and examine the effect of many-body corrections beyond single Slater determinant solutions. We discuss the effect that details of the IBM Hamiltonian have on the results, including different forms of double-counting corrections, and the need to establish and precisely specify many-body Hamiltonians to allow more direct and quantitative comparisons with experiments in MATBG. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Xiao, Zhi-Yu (ORCID:0000000219531579)↗
NASA NTRS2018

The OpenSE Cookbook: A Practical, Recipe Based Collection of Patterns, Procedures, and Best Practices for Executable Systems Engineering for the Thirty Meter Telescope

The OpenSE Cookbook is an open-sourced collection of patterns, procedures, and best practices targeted for systems engineers who seek guidance on applying model-based and executable systems engineering (MBSE) using SysML. Its content has emerged from the system level modeling effort on the European Framework Program 6 (FP6) and the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). The TMT MBSE approach applied the Executable Systems Engineering Method (ESEM) and the open-source Engineering Environment (OpenMBEE) to specify, analyze, and verify requirements of TMT’s Alignment and Phasing System (APS) and the Narrow Field Infrared Adaptive Optics System (NFIRAOS). In these applications, implicit dependencies are made explicit in a formal model through the use of ESEM, OpenMBEE, and SysML modeling constructs. The value proposition for applying this MBSE approach was to establish precise requirements and fine-grained traceability to system designs, and to verify key requirements beginning early in development. The integration of ESEM and the OpenMBEE tooling infrastructure (providing linked-data and web-operability) is a significant added value for the MBSE approach. The APS is responsible for the overall pre-adaptive optics wavefront quality, using starlight to measure wavefront errors and align the TMT optics. In the formally integrated and executable SysML model, simulations are performed to analyze the impact of changed requirements and verify specified constraints for various operational scenarios. The APS team used several modeling patterns to capture information such as the requirements, the operational scenarios, involved subsystems and their interaction points, the estimated or required time durations, and the mass and power consumption. Adaptive optics systems are designed to sense real-time atmospheric turbulence and correct the telescope’s optical beam to remove its effect. The system model for the adaptive optics operational modes was developed to capture sequence behaviors and operational scenarios to run Monte-Carlo simulations for verifying acquisition time, observing efficiency, and operational behavior requirements. The model is particularly useful for investigating the effect of parallelization, identifying interface issues, and re-ordering sequence acquisition tasks. A former version of the Cookbook (which is now updated to MBSE challenges, goals, and lessons learned) included modeling guidelines and conventions for all system aspects, hierarchy levels, and views, which were developed during for the Active Phasing Experiment (APE), an opto-mechatronical system technology demonstrator for the Extremely Large Telescope (ELT). The Cookbook utilizes the above mentioned system models as real-world case-studies to demonstrate and document the applications of the recipes, providing also instructional examples and addressing the available tooling support. The Cookbook is accompanied by a number of SysML models and aodel libraries which facilitate model authoring and maintenance. The Cookbook covers the different aspects of Systems Engineering such as management of Requirements, Design (behavior and structure), Interfaces, Interdisciplinary Integration, Analysis, Trade Studies, and Technical Resources. This paper presents the background, motivation, architecture, and highlights some key content of the Cookbook. For example, interface management, error budget management, requirements verification, Monte Carlo driven analysis, and timing analysis of operational scenarios. The paper discusses how the capabilities of OpenMBEE contributed significantly to the adoption of executable systems engineering.

Brower, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2025

Missing components in ΛCDM from DESI Y1 baryonic acoustic oscillation measurements: Insights from redshift remapping

We explore transformations of the Friedman-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) metric and cosmological parameters that align with observational data while aiming to gain insights into potential extensions of standard cosmological models. We modified the FLRW metric by introducing a scaling factor, e 2Θ(a) –the cosmological scaling function (CSF), which alters the standard relationship between cosmological redshift and the cosmic scale factor without affecting angular measurements or cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies. Using data from DESI Year 1, Pantheon+ supernovae, and the Planck CMB temperature power spectrum, we constrained both the CSF and cosmological parameters through a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Our results indicate that the CSF model fits observational data with a lower Hubble constant (although it is compatible with the value given by Planck 2018 within 1σ) and is predominantly dark matter dominated. Additionally, the CSF model produces temperature and lensing power spectra similar to those predicted by the standard model, though with lower values in the CSF model at large scales. We also checked that when fitting a CSF model without dark energy to the data, we obtain a more negative conformal function. This suggests that the CSF model may offer hints about missing elements and opens up a new avenue for exploring physical interpretations of cosmic acceleration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2007

Stress Rupture Life Reliability Measures for Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases onboard spacecraft. Kevlar (DuPont), glass, carbon and other more recent fibers have all been used as overwraps. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads for an extended period during a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is therefore important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since the testing of each flight design cannot be completed on a practical time scale. The present paper examines specifically a Weibull statistics based stress rupture model and considers the various uncertainties associated with the model parameters. The paper also examines several reliability estimate measures that would be of use for the purpose of recertification and for qualifying flight worthiness of these vessels. Specifically, deterministic values for a point estimate, mean estimate and 90/95 percent confidence estimates of the reliability are all examined for a typical flight quality vessel under constant stress. The mean and the 90/95 percent confidence estimates are computed using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques by assuming distribution statistics of model parameters based also on simulation and on the available data, especially the sample sizes represented in the data. The data for the stress rupture model are obtained from the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) stress rupture testing program, carried out for the past 35 years. Deterministic as well as probabilistic sensitivities are examined.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of a Subject-specific Ankle Sprain Simulation to Extrinsic Versus Intrinsic Biomechanical Factors

Ankle sprains are the most common musculoskeletal injury in sport and military activity, despite existing prophylactic strategies. The purpose of this report was to develop a probabilistic simulation of lateral ankle sprains during single-limb drop landing, towards accelerating innovation in ankle sprain prevention. A deterministic, subject-specific musculoskeletal model was extended with automation and probabilistic distributions on sprain-related biomechanical factors. Probabilistic simulations were generated using traditional Monte Carlo techniques and the advanced mean value method, a more computationally-efficient approach. Predicted distributions of peak ankle joint rotations, velocities, and moments borne by supporting passive structures agreed favorably with the deterministic model and with reports of real sprain biomechanics. Parameter sensitivities identified that predictions were most strongly influenced by drop height, subtalar joint posture at contact, invertor/evertor co-activation, and passive ankle stiffness. The advanced mean value method predicted confidence bounds comparable to a 1000-trial Monte Carlo simulation, and required only 14 model evaluations and 4-min processing time. The extended probabilistic simulation may be useful to virtually test new prophylactic strategies for ankle sprains, and is made available for open-source use (https://simtk.org/projects/sprain-sim).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1972

Application of an approach and landing system model to the space shuttle orbiter vehicle

An analytic model and procedure are described which can be used to estimate probability distributions of touchdown conditions, without utilizing a Monte Carlo simulation. Example applications are presented, including one-step and two-step flare strategies for the space shuttle orbiter. The computed probability distributions for the two-step flare are compared with the corresponding histograms from an independent Monte Carlo simulation of the same situation. The computed distributions are very good fits to the Monte-Carlo-generated histograms for pertinent longitudinal and lateral variables at three points (including touchdown) along the vehicle's final approach trajectory. The model, thus verified, has more inherent power for assessing the effects of system element changes than conventional Monte Carlo techniques.

Johnson, W. A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stability analysis of Monte Carlo burnup calculation based on PWR fuel rods

The existing Monte Carlo burnup algorithms may give some unstable results when using multiple burnable cells during burnup calculations. A very small time step is required to maintain the stability of the system, which pose some limits for the realistic applications. In this paper, we firstly repeat the instability issue by using a Monte Carlo code based on a typical PWR fuel rod model. Then, a theoretical stability analysis was carried out by using the perturbation theory in order to get a better understanding about the property of system stability. We determine a perturbation matrix which relates some main influence factors, such as the time step and the height of fuel rod, it can help people estimate the stability of burnup calculation system and the results are quantitatively consistent with the Monte Carlo code. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Ensemble Score Filter for Tracking High-Dimensional Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

We propose an ensemble score filter (EnSF) for solving high-dimensional nonlinear filtering problems with superior accuracy. A major drawback of existing filtering methods, e.g., particle filters or ensemble Kalman filters, is the low accuracy in handling high-dimensional and highly nonlinear problems. EnSF attacks this challenge by exploiting the score-based diffusion model, defined in a pseudo-temporal domain, to characterizing the evolution of the filtering density. EnSF stores the information of the recursively updated filtering density function in the score function, in stead of storing the information in a set of finite Monte Carlo samples (used in particle filters and ensemble Kalman filters). Unlike existing diffusion models that train neural networks to approximate the score function, we develop a training-free score estimation that uses mini-batch-based Monte Carlo estimator to directly approximate the score function at any pseudo-spatial-temporal location, which provides sufficient accuracy in solving high-dimensional nonlinear problems as well as saves tremendous amount of time spent on training neural networks. Another essential aspect of EnSF is its analytical update step, gradually incorporating data information into the score function, which is crucial in mitigating the degeneracy issue faced when dealing with very high-dimensional nonlinear filtering problems. High-dimensional Lorenz systems are used to demonstrate the performance of our method. EnSF provides surprisingly impressive performance in reliably tracking extremely high-dimensional Lorenz systems (up to 1,000,000 dimension) with highly nonlinear observation processes, which is a well-known challenging problem for existing filtering methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1985

A Monte Carlo study of parameters affecting computer simulations of crater saturation density

Computer models of cratered surfaces often use inputs of uncertain nature and importance. This work evaluates the sensitivity of the resulting crater-saturation estimates to the input parameters, principally applicable to the study of craters upward from 8 km diameter. In order of decreasing importance, crater saturation simulations are found to be sensitive to: (1) the dynamic range of crater diameters used, (2) the effectiveness of ejecta-blanket obliteration assumed, and (3) the number of points taken to describe the crater rim. The size of the largest crater in proportion to the size of the simulated surface has no effect on the results when the edges of the simulated surface are correctly treated and craters are not counted simply by integers. Craters should be counted by their fractions lying within the simulated area. A similar procedure is recommended when gathering crater size-density data from images.

Woronow, A.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Program Models A Laser Beam Focused In An Aerosol Spray

Monte Carlo analysis performed on packets of light. Program for Analysis of Laser Beam Focused Within Aerosol Spray (FLSPRY) developed for theoretical analysis of propagation of laser pulse optically focused within aerosol spray. Applied for example, to analyze laser ignition arrangement in which focused laser pulse used to ignite liquid aerosol fuel spray. Scattering and absorption of laser light by individual aerosol droplets evaluated by use of electromagnetic Lorenz-Mie theory. Written in FORTRAN 77 for both UNIX-based computers and DEC VAX-series computers. VAX version of program (LEW-16051). UNIX version (LEW-16065).

Barton, J. P.↗