The athlete at the center of sports statistics: Discussion for “The game insight group: A model for academic-industry partnerships for sports statistics innovation”
No abstract provided.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Models, Statistical”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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A quantification strategy for missing bone mass in case of osteolytic bone lesions
Purpose: Most of the patients who died of breast cancer have developed bone metastases. To understand the pathogenesis of bone metastases and to analyze treatment response of different bone remodeling therapies, preclinical animal models are examined. In breast cancer, bone metastases are often bone destructive. To assess treatment response of bone remodeling therapies, the volumes of these lesions have to be determined during the therapy process. The manual delineation of missing structures, especially if large parts are missing, is very time-consuming and not reproducible. Reproducibility is highly important to have comparable results during the therapy process. Therefore, a computerized approach is needed. Also for the preclinical research, a reproducible measurement of the lesions is essential. Here, the authors present an automated segmentation method for the measurement of missing bone mass in a preclinical rat model with bone metastases in the hind leg bones based on 3D CT scans. Methods: The affected bone structure is compared to a healthy model. Since in this preclinical rat trial the metastasis only occurs on the right hind legs, which is assured by using vessel clips, the authors use the left body side as a healthy model. The left femur is segmented with a statistical shape model which is initialised using the automatically segmented medullary cavity. The left tibia and fibula are segmented using volume growing starting at the tibia medullary cavity and stopping at the femur boundary. Masked images of both segmentations are mirrored along the median plane and transferred manually to the position of the affected bone by rigid registration. Affected bone and healthy model are compared based on their gray values. If the gray value of a voxel indicates bone mass in the healthy model and no bone in the affected bone, this voxel is considered to be osteolytic. Results: The lesion segmentations complete the missing bone structures in a reasonable way. The mean ratiov{sub r}/v{sub m} of the reconstructed bone volume v{sub r} and the healthy model bone volume v{sub m} is 1.07, which indicates a good reconstruction of the modified bone. Conclusions: The qualitative and quantitative comparison of manual and semi-automated segmentation results have shown that comparing a modified bone structure with a healthy model can be used to identify and measure missing bone mass in a reproducible way.
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
Initial framework for engineering-scale statistical creep-fatigue modeling
This report describes the integration of new solid and interface-cohesive mechanics systems into MOOSE. The purpose of these new systems is to support the ability of MOOSE to run full-field crystal plasticity finite element method simulations of key material processes in high temperature metallic materials. These simulations could be used to help accurately predict the performance of key high temperature structural materials in future advanced nuclear reactor components. Previous work implemented preliminary versions of many of these systems in MOOSE Apps. The current work reports on their integration into the main MOOSE tensor mechanics module along with associated improvements to the basic formulations and numerical implementations. Finally, the report provides an example of the full-field crystal plasticity simulations now possible in MOOSE, including examples of realistic geometries requiring millions of degrees of freedom to resolve the microstructural features and macroscale geometry.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Approximate Bayesian Computation for Model Calibration Given Summary Statistics
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Najm, Habib N.↗
Constrained probabilistic model calibration given summary statistics
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Najm, Habib N.↗
Statistical analysis and degradation pathway modeling of photovoltaic minimodules with varied packaging strategies
Degradation pathway models constructed using network structural equation modeling (netSEM) are used to study degradation modes and pathways active in photovoltaic (PV) system variants in exposure conditions of high humidity and temperature. This data-driven modeling technique enables the exploration of simultaneous pairwise and multiple regression relationships between variables in which several degradation modes are active in specific variants and exposure conditions. Durable and degrading variants are identified from the netSEM degradation mechanisms and pathways, along with potential ways to mitigate these pathways. A combination of domain knowledge and netSEM modeling shows that corrosion is the primary cause of the power loss in these glass/backsheet PV minimodules. We show successful implementation of netSEM to elucidate the relationships between variables in PV systems and predict a specific service lifetime. The results from pairwise relationships and multiple regression show consistency. This work presents a greater opportunity to be expanded to other materials systems.
electrical measurements↗
Probing Transit Timing Variation and Its Possible Origin with 12 New Transits of TrES-3b
We present 12 new transit light curves of the hot-Jupiter TrES-3b observed during 2012−2018 to probe the transit timing variation (TTV). By combining the midtransit times determined from these 12 transit data with those reestimated through uniform procedure from 71 transit data available in the literature, we derive new linear ephemeris and obtain the timing residuals that suggest the possibility of TTV in the TrES-3 system. However, the frequency analysis shows that the possible TTV is unlikely to be periodic, indicating the absence of an additional body in this system. To explore the other possible origins of TTV, the orbital decay and apsidal precession ephemeris models are fitted to the transit time data. We find the decay rate of TrES-3b to be P-dot {sub q}=−4.1±3.1 ms yr{sup −1}, and the corresponding estimated modified stellar tidal quality factor of Q{sub ∗}{sup ′}∼1.11×10{sup 5} is consistent with the theoretically predicted values for the stars hosting the hot-Jupiters. The shift in the transit arrival time of TrES-3b after 11 years is expected to be T {sub shift} ∼ 69.55 s, which is consistent with the rms of the timing residuals. Besides, we find that the apsidal precession ephemeris model is statistically less probable than the other considered ephemeris models. It is also discussed that despite the fact that the linear ephemeris model appears to be the most plausible model to represent the transit time data, the possibility of the orbital decay cannot be completely ruled out in the TrES-3 system. To confirm this, further high-precision and high-cadence follow-up observation of transits of TrES-3b would be important.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Cluster Cosmology with the Velocity Distribution Function of the HeCS-SZ Sample
We apply the velocity distribution function (VDF) to a sample of Sunyaev–Zel'dovich (SZ)-selected clusters, and we report preliminary cosmological constraints in the ${\sigma }_{8}$-${{\rm{\Omega }}}_{m}$ cosmological parameter space. The VDF is a forward-modeled test statistic that can be used to constrain cosmological models directly from galaxy cluster dynamical observations. The method was introduced in Ntampaka et al. and employs line-of-sight velocity measurements to directly constrain cosmological parameters; it is less sensitive to measurement error than a standard halo mass function approach. The method is applied to the Hectospec Survey of Sunyaev–Zeldovich-Selected Clusters sample, which is a spectroscopic follow-up of a Planck-selected sample of 83 galaxy clusters. Credible regions are calculated by comparing the VDF of the observed cluster sample to that of mock observations, yielding ${{ \mathcal S }}_{8}$ $\equiv \,{\sigma }_{8}{\left({{\rm{\Omega }}}_{m}/0.3\right)}^{0.25}=0.751\pm 0.037$. These constraints are in tension with the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background TT fiducial value, which lies outside of our 95% credible region, but are in agreement with some recent analyses of large-scale structure that observe fewer massive clusters than are predicted by the Planck fiducial cosmological parameters.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Statistical time-dependent model for the interstellar gas
We present models for temperature and ionization structure of low, uniform-density (approximately 0.3 per cu cm) interstellar gas in a galactic disk which is exposed to soft X rays from supernova outbursts occurring randomly in space and time. The structure was calculated by computing the time record of temperature and ionization at a given point by Monte Carlo simulation. The calculation yields probability distribution functions for ionized fraction, temperature, and their various observable moments. These time-dependent models predict a bimodal temperature distribution of the gas that agrees with various observations. Cold regions in the low-density gas may have the appearance of clouds in 21-cm absorption. The time-dependent model, in contrast to the steady-state model, predicts large fluctuations in ionization rate and the existence of cold (approximately 30 K), ionized (ionized fraction equal to about 0.1) regions.
Gerola, H.↗
Curve fitting and modeling with splines using statistical variable selection techniques
The successful application of statistical variable selection techniques to fit splines is demonstrated. Major emphasis is given to knot selection, but order determination is also discussed. Two FORTRAN backward elimination programs, using the B-spline basis, were developed. The program for knot elimination is compared in detail with two other spline-fitting methods and several statistical software packages. An example is also given for the two-variable case using a tensor product basis, with a theoretical discussion of the difficulties of their use.
Smith, P. L.↗
A parameterization of eddy transfer coefficients for two-level seasonal statistical dynamical zonally averaged models
This paper examines a parameterization of a quasi-geostrophic eddy transport that takes into account the time variation of eddy transfer coefficients according to Green's (1970) theory. It was found that, in the original eddy transfer relationship of Green, connecting the integral of the northward eddy entropy flux through midlatitudes with the second power of the difference in 500-mb entropy across the region of baroclinic activity, a value of 4 for the exponent is obtained when the temperature gradients at 500 mb are used. When the gradients at 1000 mb are used, an exponent of 1.5 is obtained. The differences in the powers in the eddy transfer relation were explored in a two-level zonally averaged model. It was found that an appropriate choice of power may be of special importance if the model is devised to simulate the seasonal climate cycle or to test astronomical changes inducing different seasonalities.
Neeman, Binyamin U.↗
Stochastic-Dynamical Modeling of Space Time Rainfall
The focus of this research work is the elucidation of the physical origins of the observed extreme-rainfall variability over tropical oceans. The quantitative results of this work may be used to establish links between deterministic models of the mesoscale and synoptic scale with statistical descriptions of the temporal variability of local tropical oceanic rainfall. In addition, they may be used to quantify the influence of measurement error in large-scale forcing and cloud scale observations on the accuracy of local rainfall variability inferences, important for hydrologic studies. A simple statistical-dynamical model, suitable for use in repetitive Monte Carlo experiments, is formulated as a diagnostic tool for this purpose. Stochastic processes with temporal structure and parameters estimated from observed large-scale data represent large-scale forcing.
Georgankakos, Konstantine P.↗
Error Estimation of An Ensemble Statistical Seasonal Precipitation Prediction Model
This NASA Technical Memorandum describes an optimal ensemble canonical correlation forecasting model for seasonal precipitation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. Since new CCA scheme is derived for continuous fields of predictor and predictand, an area-factor is automatically included. Thus our model is an improvement of the spectral CCA scheme of Barnett and Preisendorfer. The improvements include (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States (US) precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST). The US Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST is used as the predictor's historical data. The US National Center for Environmental Prediction's optimally interpolated precipitation (1951-2000) is used as the predictand's historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the new ensemble canonical correlation scheme renders a reasonable forecasting skill. For example, when using September-October-November SST to predict the next season December-January-February precipitation, the spatial pattern correlation between the observed and predicted are positive in 46 years among the 50 years of experiments. The positive correlations are close to or greater than 0.4 in 29 years, which indicates excellent performance of the forecasting model. The forecasting skill can be further enhanced when several predictors are used.
Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
The spectral correlation of functional clouds: a statistical test for theoretical models
We compute the spectral correlation function (SCF) of CO J=1-0 maps of moleculary cloud complexes. The SCF is a power law over approximately an order of magnitude in spatial separation in every map. The power law slope of the SCF, its normalization, and the spectral line width averaged over the whole map, are computed for all the observational maps.
turbulence kinematics↗
Millimeter Wave Systems for Airports and Short-Range Aviation Communications: A Survey of the Current Channel Models at mmWave Frequencies
Millimeter-wave (mmWave) communications will play a key role in enhancing the throughput, reliability, and security of next generation wireless networks. These advancements are achieved through the large bandwidth available in this band and through the use of highly directional links that will be used to overcome the large pathloss at these frequencies. Although the terrestrial application of mmWave systems is advancing at a rapid pace, the use of mmWave communication systems in aviation systems or airports is still in its infancy. This can be attributed to the challenges related to radio technology and lack of development, and characterization of mmWave wireless channels for the aviation field and the airport environment. Consequently, one of our goals is to develop methodologies that support mmWave air to ground links, and various links at airports, by applying new localization schemes that allow for application of highly directional links that can be deployed over longer distances despite the high path loss at mmWave frequencies. However, a very thorough understanding of the mmWave channel models are needed to enable such new applications. To this end, in this paper, we present a survey of the current channel models in the mmWave band. The 3-dimensional statistical channel model is also reviewed and its parameters and typical characteristics for this model are identified and computed through simulation for the Boise metropolitan area.
air traffic management↗
Statistical Emulation and Inverse Modeling
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Computer Science↗
Panel on Materials SAMSI Model Uncertainty: Mathematical and Statistical (MUMS) Workshop.
Abstract not provided.
Swiler, Laura Painton↗
Numerically exact full counting statistics of the nonequilibrium Anderson impurity model
The time-dependent full counting statistics of charge transport through an interacting quantum junction is evaluated from its generating function, controllably computed with the inchworm Monte Carlo method. Exact noninteracting results are reproduced; then, we continue to explore the effect of electron-electron interactions on the time-dependent charge cumulants, first-passage time distributions, and n-electron transfer distributions. We observe a crossover in the noise from Coulomb blockade to Kondo-dominated physics as the temperature is decreased. In addition, we uncover long-tailed spin distributions in the Kondo regime and analyze queuing behavior caused by correlations between single-electron transfer events
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗