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DOE OSTI2025

Process Optimization and Modeling for Minerals Sustainability (PrOMMiS) v1.0.0

The U.S. Department of Energy's ("DOE") Process Optimization and Modeling for Minerals Sustainability project ("PrOMMiS Project") was initiated in 2023 to transform the national Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Elements (CM & REE) landscape, thereby supporting DOE's three enduring strategic objectives: security, economic competitiveness, and environmental responsibility. To address this initiative, the PrOMMiS Project will develop, demonstrate, and deploy an open-source, advanced system modeling, optimization, and analysis application ("PrOMMiS Software Application") that will support industry decision-makers by accelerating the scale-up of novel CM & REE technologies by de-risking the development and deployment of commercial scale processes and maximizing learning throughout the development cycle.

Beattie, KeithS [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗

DOE OSTI2023

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Geothermal Supply Curves

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. The included paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results provided here should be considered with care due to the high uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for three scenarios: two hydrothermal (3.5km depth, USGS heat flow & SMU temperatures respectively) and one EGS (4.5km depth, SMU temperatures). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v001.00

As a contribution to International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project, we are providing new analysis approaches, benchmarking tools, and science leadership. The goal of ILAMB is to assess and improve the performance of land models through international cooperation and to inform the design of new measurement campaigns and field studies to reduce uncertainties associated with key biogeochemical processes and feedbacks. ILAMB is expected to be a primary analysis tool for CMIP6 and future model-data intercomparison experiments. This team has developed initial prototype benchmarking systems for ILAMB, which will be improved and extended to include ocean model metrics and diagnostics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

International land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Package v002.00

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spatio-temporal Estimates of Disease Transmission Parameters for COVID-19 with a Fully-Coupled, County-Level Model of the United States

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a capability to estimate parameters of epidemiological models from case reporting data to support responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. A differentiating feature of this work is the ability to simultaneously estimate county-specific disease transmission parameters in a nation-wide model that considers mobility between counties. The approach is focused on estimating parameters in a stochastic SEIR model that considers mobility between model patches (i.e., counties) as well as additional infectious compartments. The inference engine developed by Sandia includes (1) reconstruction and (2) transmission parameter inference. Reconstruction involves estimating current population counts within each of the compartments in a modified SEIR model from reported case data. Reconstruction produces input for the inference formulations, and it provides initial conditions that can be used in other modeling and planning efforts. Inference involves the solution of a large-scale optimization problem to estimate the time profiles for the transmission parameters in each county. These provide quantification of changes in the transmission parameter over time (e.g., due to impact of intervention strategies). This capability has been implemented in a Python-based software package, epi_inference, that makes extensive use of Pyomo [5] and IPOPT [10] to formulate and solve the inference formulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential while Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. This paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results should be considered with care due to the highly uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for five scenarios: four hydrothermal (3.5km depth) and one EGS (4.5km depth). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

exclusions↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of a Geothermal Module in reV: Quantifying the Geothermal Potential While Accounting for the Geospatial Intersection of the Grid Infrastructure and Land Use Characteristics: Preprint

The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a geospatial platform for estimating technical potential and developing renewable energy supply curves, initially developed for wind and solar technologies. The model evaluates deployment constraints, considering land use, environmental, and cultural factors, and estimates the distance to existing grid features to connect future plants (Maclaurin et al., 2021). A pressing deficiency in the reV model, however, is representation of geothermal electricity generation technologies. To address this gap, we developed a novel geothermal generation module for reV that allows for representation and analysis at the same level of detail as other renewable technologies. This paper describes our process for evaluating data sources for the modeling, and presents five preliminary reV geothermal results. More specifically, we present two sets of resource data that represent upper and lower bounds for geothermal potential. We then present several sensitivity runs using the upper bound resource data; the results are encouraging that levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) can be reduced by optimizing the location and estimated capacity of the spatially diverse geothermal resource while considering the distance to existing grid infrastructure. Our preliminary supply curves and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) results should be considered with care due to the highly uncertainty in geothermal resource potential data. We present median LCOE values for the conterminous U.S. for five scenarios: four hydrothermal (3.5km depth) and one EGS (4.5km depth). The capital and operating costs for each respective technology are modeled. We also compare results using two different resource data sources.

exclusions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Phase-field modeling of aging-induced microstructure evolution in pentaerythritol tetranitrate thin films and ramifications for shock initiation

Aging of energetic materials may change performance and affect their safety and reliability, but the relationship between microstructure changes induced by aging and consequent performance changes has not been fully established. This work presents results of phase-field method simulations used to model microstructure evolution of vapor-deposited pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) thin films. Simulated aging is shown to induce grain coarsening and substantial changes of the configuration of porosity in the film: Specifically, we show that porosity tends to concentrate in large pores to a greater degree in aged films, a state that is arrived at by closure or consolidation of small pores. To evaluate the performance of the as-deposited and aged films, we perform two-dimensional hydrocode flyer-film impact simulations that incorporate the phase-field output microstructures directly, permitting us to connect features therein to changes in reactivity, a key metric of energy output for shock initiation. The results demonstrate that declining sensitivity obtained for the simulated aged films can be correlated with the loss of fine-structured pores relatively early in the aging process, while long-term microstructure evolution that gradually alters the shape of large, branching pores is less impactful. Finally, we discuss commonalities and discrepancies between our simulation results and high-throughput initiation experiments on shock initiation of aged PETN thin films.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

The effects of the small-scale DM power on the cosmological neutral hydrogen (HI) distribution at high redshifts

The particle nature of dark matter remains a mystery. In this paper, we consider two dark matter models—Late Forming Dark Matter (LFDM) and Ultra-Light Axion (ULA) models—where the matter power spectra show novel effects on small scales. The high redshift universe offers a powerful probe of their parameters. In particular, we study two cosmological observables: the neutral hydrogen (HI) redshifted 21-cm signal from the epoch of reionization, and the evolution of the collapsed fraction of HI in the redshift range 2 < z < 5. We model the theoretical predictions of the models using CDM-like N-body simulations with modified initial conditions, and generate reionization fields using an excursion set model. The N-body approximation is valid on the length and halo mass scales studied. We show that LFDM and ULA models predict an increase in the HI power spectrum from the epoch of reionization by a factor between 2–10 for a range of scales 0.1 < k < 4 Mpc{sup −1}. Assuming a fiducial model where a neutral hydrogen fraction x-bar {sub HI} = 0.5 must be achieved by z = 8, the reionization process allows us to put approximate bounds on the redshift of dark matter formation z{sub f} > 4 × 10{sup 5} (for LFDM) and the axion mass m{sub a} > 2.6 × 10{sup −23} eV (for ULA). The comparison of the collapsed mass fraction inferred from damped Lyman-α observations to the theoretical predictions of our models lead to the weaker bounds: z{sub f} > 2 × 10{sup 5} and m{sub a} > 10{sup −23} eV. These bounds are consistent with other constraints in the literature using different observables; we briefly discuss how these bounds compare with possible constraints from the observation of luminosity function of galaxies at high redshifts. In the case of ULAs, these constraints are also consistent with a solution to the cusp-core problem of CDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Electroweak pion production on nuclei within the extended factorization scheme

We have applied the extended factorization scheme to investigate the electroweak pion production on nuclei. The ANL-Osaka model, which was obtained by analyzing the data of πN, γN, N(e,e'π), and N(ν,μπ) reactions up to invariant mass W=2GeV, is used to generate the matrix elements of current operators relevant to pion production off the nucleon. Medium effects on the Δ (1232) component of the meson-exchange current are included by using a Δ-nucleus potential determined from the previous Δ-hole model studies of pion-nucleus reactions. Nuclear correlations in the initial target state and in the spectator system(s) are modeled using realistic hole spectral functions. As a first step, we show that the data of 12 C(e,e') up to the Δ (1232) region can be described reasonably well. The interplay between the pion production and two-body meson-exchange mechanisms is shown to be essential in improving the agreement with the data in the “dip” region, between the quasielastic and the Δ (1232) peaks. Predictions for 12 C(ν,μπ) have also been made. They can be used to estimate pion-emission rates in neutrino-nucleus cross section, which constitutes an important systematic uncertainty to the reconstructed neutrino energy. With further improvements of the Metropolis Monte Carlo techniques to account for final states comprised of more than two particles, our approach can be employed up to W=2 GeV, where two-pion production and higher mass nucleon resonances must be included for analyzing the data from accelerator-based neutrino-oscillation experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Reactivity Insertion Accidents using BISON Fuel Performance Code

The development of Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) has expanded into a considerable research program in the wake of the events at the Japanese Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011. The ATF goal is to insert a test assembly into a commercial reactor by 2022. To support this, testing of the ATF design under off-normal conditions is needed to assess the 'enhanced accident tolerance' capability of the fuel rod design over standard UO{sub 2}-Zircaloy concepts. Transient testing capabilities are necessary for off-normal testing of events such as loss of coolant accidents (LOCA) and reactivity insertion accidents (RIA). A transient testing program has been developed to support the testing of ATF designs. The Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility has been chosen as the site to perform the transient testing of the ATF designs. TREAT is a versatile test facility capable of subjecting fuel specimens to various off-normal conditions. Historic TREAT experiments were performed in a variety of experimental test vehicles including static environment capsules, once-through flowing systems, and also recirculating flowing systems. The planned TREAT experiments will be operated under PWR conditions. Therefore, a static capsule vehicle is under development to handle required temperatures and pressures. The static capsule, termed the Static Environment Rodlet Transient Test Apparatus (SERTTA), will be used for irradiation tests in TREAT to subject ATF fuel rodlets to a range of power pulse conditions and environments. To aid in the design and analysis of future tests in TREAT, the fuel performance code BISON is being used. Fuel performance codes capable of accident modeling have been developed for some time and they have shown an ability to reproduce experimental results with some degree of adequacy, but they still require extensive verification and validation. Future experiments in TREAT will add to a limited database of past transient tests performed in transient reactors to support LWR systems. These tests can be used for future verification and validation of fuel performance codes. Understanding the impact of the uncertainty of influential parameters is critical for not only analyzing the results of the experiment but also for modeling and validation of codes. For example, uncertainties associated with the initial manufactured state of the sample, instrument measurements, material property models, and planned experiment conditions can provide important insight into model performance, experimental data, and play an important role in experimental design. The objective of this work is to perform an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on a simplified RIA case of a standard UO{sub 2}-Zircaloy sample using expected nominal conditions in the SERTTA capsule in TREAT. The BISON fuel performance code is used in conjunction with DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Tera-scale Applications) to perform the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2016

New type of hill-top inflation

We suggest a new type of hill-top inflation originating from the initial conditions in the form of the microcanonical density matrix for the cosmological model with a large number of quantum fields conformally coupled to gravity. Initial conditions for inflation are set up by cosmological instantons describing underbarrier oscillations in the vicinity of the inflaton potential maximum. These periodic oscillations of the inflaton field and cosmological scale factor are obtained within the approximation of two coupled oscillators subject to the slow roll regime in the Euclidean time. This regime is characterized by rapid oscillations of the scale factor on the background of a slowly varying inflaton, which guarantees smallness of slow roll parameters ϵ and η of the following inflation stage. A hill-like shape of the inflaton potential is shown to be generated by logarithmic loop corrections to the tree-level asymptotically shift-invariant potential in the non-minimal Higgs inflation model and R{sup 2}-gravity. The solution to the problem of hierarchy between the Planckian scale and the inflation scale is discussed within the concept of conformal higher spin fields, which also suggests the mechanism bringing the model below the gravitational cutoff and, thus, protecting it from large graviton loop corrections.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

SWAT model application for evaluating agricultural conservation practice effectiveness in reducing phosphorous loss from the Western Lake Erie Basin

Lake Erie is threatened by eutrophication and harmful algal blooms due to excess nutrient loading from agricultural sources. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) have been developed and implemented to reduce nutrient losses but estimating ACP effectiveness is challenging. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to investigate ACP effectiveness for water quality improvement. Many SWAT applications have been developed by different investigators to evaluate ACP effectiveness for reducing nutrient, particularly phosphorus (P), loading in the agriculturally-dominated Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB). Our objective is to establish what has been achieved by past modeling research and make suggestions for future applications and improvements. We synthesized the findings of 28 SWAT modeling studies within the WLEB. Models generally performed satisfactorily against accepted criteria for streamflow and sediment, but performance for P loads, like soluble reactive P, was mostly “unsatisfactory”. The “unsatisfactory” performance maybe due to imperfections and idealizations in model formulations and/or parameterization. Thus, simulations of P transport and transformation processes need improvement. In addition, model parameter selection is the key part of model set-up. Most SWAT modeling studies used default values during initial set-up, then performed calibration and validation. It was found that the calibrated P related parameter values varied widely across different studies, even within the same watershed with some values unrealistic for the study areas. The phenomena of different combinations of model parameters producing similar outputs indicates equifinality. Equifinality in the baseline model may impact results when ACPs are incorporated. Furthermore, the unrealistic values used in ACP assessment undermine the credibility of ACP effectiveness. Future model applications should try to re-examine the calibrated P parameters and make sure they are realistic for the study area as well as reduce equifinality by constraining the model with characterization of watershed conditions, better understanding of hydrologic processes, and parameter values based on real-world observations. As a result, future model applications should focus on improving P transport and transformation processes, using measured watershed characteristics for parameterization, and improving reflections of climate change, which could result in more accurate assessments of ACP effectiveness to meet targeted goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nuclear Energy Cost Estimates for Net Zero World Initiative

This report provides recommended parameters for incorporating nuclear energy systems into decarbonization modeling scenarios. The values are primarily intended for the Net Zero World (NZW) Initiative but are expected to prove useful to other related efforts. Both costs and operational metrics are provided in the study. Several cost factors, namely overnight capital costs (OCC) and operational costs are taken to be country specific. OCC is defined as the value of building the reactor in one night considering all costs prior to the start of operations including fuel for the initial core load. The value assumes the build is neither a first nor a ‘Nth’ of a kind, but somewhere in between. All costs are escalated to 2022 USD values.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Photosynthesis Simulation Performance in ESMs with Machine Learning-Assisted Solvers

When simulating vegetation dynamics, photosynthesis accounts for a large fraction of the computational cost in most Earth System Models (ESMs). This is largely since photosynthesis is represented as a system of nonlinear equations, and the solution requires the use of an initial guess followed by many iterations of the numerical solver to obtain a solution. We use machine learning (ML) to replicate the response surface of the model’s numerical solver to improve the choice of initial guess, therefore requiring fewer iterations to obtain a final solution. We implemented this test on the leaf-level calculations as well as at the canopy scale, and for both we observed fewer iterations of the photosynthesis solver when a ML-based initial guess was implemented. The model tested here is the Energy Exascale Earth System Model - Land Model (ELM). The ML-based algorithms used here are trained on simulations from the model itself and used only to improve the initial guess for the solver; therefore, the model maintains its own set of physics to obtain the final solution. This work shows novel ways to utilize ML-based methods to improve the performance of numerical solvers in ESMs.

Massoud, Elias [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000217725361)↗

DOE OSTI2024

H2@Scale CRADA: CA Research Consort. (Ref. Station, Fueling Perf. Test Device, Station Cap Model)

In support of DOE's H2@Scale initiative, this project leverages with national lab capabilities at SNL, NREL, and ANL with collaboration and funding cost share from California agencies (CEC, South Coast AQMD, and GO-Biz) to enable the build-out of heavy-duty (HD) hydrogen fueling stations with large dispensing capacity and high flow rates by providing tools and information that lead to more efficient design, acceptance, and commissioning. In this presentation, we describe the progress as related to the subtasks of: HD Reference Station Design, HD Station Test Device Design, and the Station Capacity Model.

AMR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Radiative, Hydrologic, and Circulation Responses to Warming in Cess‐Potter Simulations Using the Global 3.25‐km SCREAM

Using the global 3.25-km Simple Cloud Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM 3 km), a pair of 13-month Cess-Potter simulations are performed to quantify the radiative feedbacks and the hydrologic and circulation responses to warming. Large-scale aspects of SCREAM 3 km's top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, precipitation rates, and circulations are in good agreement with observations and reanalysis, with notable differences, including a drier lower free-troposphere in the Tropics, reduced precipitation and humidity over the Tropical West Pacific, and poleward shifted Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet. In response to warming, SCREAM 3 km predicts a total radiative feedback within the top 15% of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, which puts it substantially higher than the feedback reported by other kilometer-scale models. SCREAM 3 km's high radiative feedback stems from a strongly positive shortwave cloud feedback, most prominent over the mid- and high-latitudes. SCREAM 3 km's high precipitation response also puts it among the highest of CMIP models, whereas its circulation response is within the spread of CMIP models. An ensemble of five perturbed initial condition Cess-Potter simulations with a 12 km version of SCREAM (SCREAM 12 km) is performed to characterize uncertainty and resolution sensitivity. It suggests that the uncertainty from analyzing a pair of 1-year simulations is small compared to the inter-model spread in feedbacks and precipitation response. SCREAM 12 km also produces a strong precipitation response to warming but a much lower cloud feedback and total radiative feedback. The results from these experiments suggest that the spread in climate feedbacks will likely persist in the next generation of kilometer-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

SRF Cavity Instability Detection with Machine Learning at CEBAF

During the operation of CEBAF, one or more unstable superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities often cause beam loss trips while the unstable cavities themselves do not necessarily trip off. Identifying an unstable cavity out of the hundreds of cavities installed at CEBAF is difficult and time-consuming. The present RF controls for the legacy cavities report at only 1 Hz, which is too slow to detect fast transient instabilities. A fast data acquisition system for the legacy SRF cavities is being developed which samples and reports at 5 kHz to allow for detection of transients. A prototype chassis has been installed and tested in CEBAF. An autoencoder based machine learning model is being developed to identify anomalous SRF cavity behavior. The model is presently being trained on the slow (1 Hz) data that is currently available, and a separate model will be developed and trained using the fast (5 kHz) DAQ data once it becomes available. This paper will discuss the present status of the new fast data acquisition system and results of testing the prototype chassis. This paper will also detail the initial performance metrics of the autoencoder model.

Carpenter, A.↗