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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

Hydrogen-Bonding Surfaces for Ice Mitigation

Ice formation on aircraft, either on the ground or in-flight, is a major safety issue. While ground icing events occur predominantly during the winter months, in-flight icing can happen anytime during the year. The latter is more problematic since it could result in increased drag and loss of lift. Under a Phase I ARMD NARI Seedling Activity, coated aluminum surfaces possessing hydrogen-bonding groups were under investigation for mitigating ice formation. Hydroxyl and methyl terminated dimethylethoxysilanes were prepared via known chemistries and characterized by spectroscopic methods. These materials were subsequently used to coat aluminum surfaces. Surface compositions were based on pure hydroxyl and methyl terminated species as well as mixtures of the two. Coated surfaces were characterized by contact angle goniometry. Receding water contact angle data suggested several potential surfaces that may exhibit reduced ice adhesion. Qualitative icing experiments performed under representative environmental temperatures using supercooled distilled water delivered via spray coating were inconclusive. Molecular modeling studies suggested that chain mobility affected the interface between ice and the surface more than terminal group chemical composition. Chain mobility resulted from the creation of "pockets" of increased free volume for longer chains to occupy.

Smith, Joseph G., Jr.↗

Profiling Sea Ice with a Multiple Altimeter Beam Experimental Lidar (MABEL)

The sole instrument on the upcoming ICESat-2 altimetry mission is a micropulse lidar that measures the time-of-flight of individual photons from laser pulses transmitted at 532 nm. Prior to launch, MABEL serves as an airborne implementation for testing and development. In this paper, we provide a first examination of MABEL data acquired on two flights over sea ice in April 2012: one north of the Arctic coast of Greenland, and the other in the East Greenland Sea.We investigate the phenomenology of photon distributions in the sea ice returns. An approach to locate the surface and estimate its elevation in the distributions is described, and its achievable precision assessed. Retrieved surface elevations over relatively flat leads in the ice cover suggest that precisions of several centimeters are attainable. Restricting the width of the elevation window used in the surface analysis can mitigate potential biases in the elevation estimates due to subsurface returns at 532 nm. Comparisons of nearly coincident elevation profiles from MABEL with those acquired by an analog lidar show good agreement.Discrimination of ice and open water, a crucial step in the determination of sea ice free board and the estimation of ice thickness, is facilitated by contrasts in the observed signal background photon statistics. Future flight lines will sample a broader range of seasonal ice conditions for further evaluation of the year-round profiling capabilities and limitations of the MABEL instrument.

Lidar↗

Constraining the Depth of Polar Ice Deposits and Evolution of Cold Traps on Mercury with Small Craters in Permanently Shadowed Regions

Earth-based radar observations revealed highly reflective deposits at the poles of Mercury [e.g., 1], which collocate with permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) detected from both imagery and altimetry by the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft [e.g., 2]. MESSENGER also measured higher hydrogen concentrations at the north polar region, consistent with models for these deposits to be composed primarily of water ice [3]. Enigmatic to the characterization of ice deposits on Mercury is the thickness of these radar-bright features. A current minimum bound of several meters exists from the radar measurements, which show no drop in the radar cross section between 13- and 70-cm wavelength observations [4, 5]. A maximum thickness of 300 m is based on the lack of any statistically significant difference between the height of craters that host radar-bright deposits and those that do not [6]. More recently, this upper limit on the depth of a typical ice deposit has been lowered to approximately 150 m, in a study that found a mean excess thickness of 50 +/- 35 m of radar-bright deposits for 6 craters [7]. Refining such a constraint permits the derivation of a volumetric estimate of the total polar ice on Mercury, thus providing insight into possible sources of water ice on the planet. Here, we take a different approach to constrain the thickness of water-ice deposits. Permanently shadowed surfaces have been resolved in images acquired with the broadband filter on MESSENGER's wide-angle camera (WAC) using low levels of light scattered by crater walls and other topography [8]. These surfaces are not featureless and often host small craters (less than a few km in diameter). Here we utilize the presence of these small simple craters to constrain the thickness of the radar-bright ice deposits on Mercury. Specifically, we compare estimated depths made from depth-to-diameter ratios and depths from individual Mercury Laser Altimeter (MLA) tracks to constrain the fill of material of small craters that lie within the permanently shadowed, radar bright deposits of 7 north polar craters.

Deutsch, Ariel N.↗

Ice Nucleation in the Tropical Tropopause Layer: Implications for Cirrus Occurrence, Cirrus Microphysical Properties, and Dehydration of Air Entering the Stratosphere

Recent laboratory experiments have advanced our understanding of the physical properties and ice nucleating abilities of aerosol particles atlow temperatures. In particular, aerosols containing organics will transition to a glassy state at low temperatures, and these glassy aerosols are moderately effective as ice nuclei. These results have implications for ice nucleation in the cold Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL; 13-19 km). We have developed a detailed cloud microphysical model that includes heterogeneous nucleation on a variety of aerosol types and homogeneous freezing of aqueous aerosols. This model has been incorporated into one-dimensional simulations of cirrus and water vapor driven by meteorological analysis temperature and wind fields. The model includes scavenging of ice nuclei by sedimenting ice crystals. The model is evaluated by comparing the simulated cloud properties and water vapor concentrations with aircraft and satellite measurements. In this presentation, I will discuss the relative importance of homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation, the impact of ice nuclei scavenging as air slowly ascends through the TTL, and the implications for the final dehydration of air parcels crossing the tropical cold-point tropopause and entering the tropical stratosphere.

tropopause↗

High Ice Water Concentrations in the 19 August 2015 Coastal Mesoconvective System

During August 2015, NASA's DC-8 research aircraft was flown into High Ice Water Content (HIWC) events as part of a three-week campaign to collect airborne radar data and to obtain measurements from microphysical probes. Goals for this flight campaign included improved characterization of HIWC events, especially from an airborne radar perspective. This paper focuses on one of the flight days, in which a coastal mesoscale convective system (MCS) was investigated for HIWC conditions. The system appears to have been maintained by bands of convection flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico. These convective bands were capped by a large cloud canopy, which masks the underlying structure if viewed from an infrared sensing satellite. The DC-8 was equipped with an IsoKinetic Probe that measured ice concentrations of up to 2.3 g m(exp -3) within the cloud canopy of this system. Sustained measurements of ice crystals with concentrations exceeding 1 g m(exp -3) were encountered for up to ten minutes of flight time. Airborne Radar reflectivity factors were found to be weak within these regions of high ice water concentrations, suggesting that Radar detection of HIWC would be a challenging endeavor. This case is then investigated using a three-dimensional numerical cloud model. Profiles of ice water concentrations and radar reflectivity factor demonstrate similar magnitudes and scales between the flight measurements and model simulation. Also discussed are recent modifications to the numerical model's ice-microphysics that are based on measurements during the flight campaign. The numerical model and its updated ice-microphysics are further validated with a simulation of a well-known case of a supercell hailstorm measured during the Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment. Differences in HIWC between the continental supercell and the coastal MCS are discussed.

Proctor, Fred H.↗

Global Statistics of Microphysical Properties of Cloud-Top Ice Crystals

Ice crystals in clouds are highly complex. Their sizes, macroscale shape (i.e., habit), mesoscale shape (i.e., aspect ratio of components) and microscale shape (i.e., surface roughness) determine optical properties and affect physical properties such as fall speeds, growth rates and aggregation efficiency. Our current understanding on the formation and evolution of ice crystals under various conditions can be considered poor. Commonly, ice crystal size and shape are related to ambient temperature and humidity, but global observational statistics on the variation of ice crystal size and particularly shape have not been available. Here we show results of a project aiming to infer ice crystal size, shape and scattering properties from a combination of MODIS measurements and POLDER-PARASOL multi-angle polarimetry. The shape retrieval procedure infers the mean aspect ratios of components of ice crystals and the mean microscale surface roughness levels, which are quantifiable parameters that mostly affect the scattering properties, in contrast to a habit. We present global statistics on the variation of ice effective radius, component aspect ratio, microscale surface roughness and scattering asymmetry parameter as a function of cloud top temperature, latitude, location, cloud type, season, etc. Generally, with increasing height, sizes decrease, roughness increases, asymmetry parameters decrease and aspect ratios increase towards unity. Some systematic differences are observed for clouds warmer and colder than the homogeneous freezing level. Uncertainties in the retrievals will be discussed. These statistics can be used as observational targets for modeling efforts and to better constrain other satellite remote sensing applications and their uncertainties.

Van Diedenhoven, Bastiaan↗

Total Temperature Measurements Using a Rearward Facing Probe in Supercooled Liquid Droplet and Ice Crystal Clouds

Engine Icing Performance loss: rollback, surge, flameout, and even internal engine damagePartial melting and refreeze of ice inside engine core (Mason et al., 2006). Ingestion of ice crystals and aggregates, mixed-phase droplets, or supercooled liquid dropletsNeed to better understand the conditions and properties that lead to engine icing.Simulation and analysis (physical and computational, and modeling)Test facilities (PSL, NRC, ...). Thermal and computational models and analysisProbesMultiple probes (aerothermal probes and ice cloud characterization probes and techniques). Total temperatureTraditional total temperature probes (vented forward facing)Heated total temperature probes (Goodyear). Rearward facing (developmental). Total temperature relevance. Thermal interaction between the icing cloud and air flow impinging particles contribute to kinetic heating effect (Gent et al., 2000). Measurement considerations Temperature sensor accuracy. Incomplete recovery of total temperature. Thermal surfaces (sources and sinks). Flow effects (viscous losses). Debris contamination, including icing and ice ingestion.

Agui, Juan H.↗

The Role of Atmospheric Teleconnections and Local Forcings in Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss

In recent decades, the Arctic climate has experienced substantial climactic change, including significant decreases in both sea ice extent and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance. These trends are overlain by substantial interannual variability in atmospheric circulation driven by large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that the removal of Arctic sea ice can alter local atmospheric circulation through increased air temperature, clouds, and water vapor, which may contribute to increased surface melting on the GrIS. Here, we seek to characterize how these processes are linked to Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass loss and constrain how the representation of these forcings can impact the prediction of meltwater runoff within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system (S2S v2.1). To do this, we use a combination of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis product, retrospective seasonal forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1, and independent GEOS simulations. Results from MERRA-2 reanalysis indicate that the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) results in warm surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation across Greenland, both of which act to enhance summer ice surface mass losses. When compared with MERRA-2, retrospective forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1 system effectively reproduce the pattern of summer GrIS surface mass loss and demonstrate reasonable skill in predicting the magnitude of meltwater runoff at leads of 1 to 3 months. However, during periods with a strong negative NAO, ice sheet surface mass balance is substantially underestimated. This pattern is also associated with an underprediction of the Greenland Blocking Index height and over prediction of sea ice extent, suggesting that both local and non-local forcings may play a role in the reduced prediction skill during these periods. Using both retrospective forecasts and independent simulations, we characterize the relative importance of local and non-local mechanisms in driving summer GrIS

Andrews, Lauren C.↗

Effects of Hydrogen Bonding and Molecular Chain Flexibility of Substituted n-Alkyldimethylsilanes On Impact Ice Adhesion Shear Strength

The effects of hydrogen bonding and molecular flexibility upon ice adhesion shear strength were investigated using aluminum substrates coated with substituted n-alkyldimethylalkoxysilanes. The location of the chemical group substitution was on the opposing end of the linear n-alkyl chain with respect to silicon. Three hydrogen-bonding characteristics were evaluated: 1) non-hydrogen bonding, 2) donor/acceptor, and 3) acceptor. Varying the length of the n-alkyl chain provided an assessment of molecular chain flexibility. Coated and uncoated aluminum surfaces were characterized by receding water contact angle and surface roughness. Ice adhesion shear strength was determined in the Adverse Environment Rotor Test Stand facility from -16 to -8°C that simulated aircraft in-flight icing conditions within the FAR Part 25/29 Appendix C icing envelope. Surface roughness of the coatings was similar allowing for comparison of the test results. An adhesion reduction factor, based on the ice adhesion shear strength data with respect to uncoated aluminum obtained at the same temperature, was calculated to compare the data. The results revealed complex interactions with impacting supercooled water droplets that were interdependent upon ice accretion temperature, surface energy characteristics of water and ice, hydrogen bonding characteristic of the substituent, and length of the n-alkyl chain. To aid in explaining the results, 1) changes in the surface energy component (i.e., non-polar and polar) values that water undergoes during its’ phase change from liquid to solid that arise from the freezing of impacting supercooled water droplets on the surface depended upon the temperature during accretion were taken into account and 2) the physical properties (i.e., water solubility and melting point) of small compounds analogous to the substituted n-alkyldimethylalkoxysilanes used in this study were compared.

Smith, Joseph G.↗

Seasonal Variations of Arctic Low-Level Clouds and its Linkage to Sea Ice Seasonal Variations

Using CALIPSO-CloudSat-Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) (C3M) dataset, this study documents the seasonal variation of sea ice, cloud, and related atmospheric properties in the Arctic region (70°N–82°N) during the period 2007-2010. The surface type stratification used reveals the surface type influence on the Arctic cloud liquid water path (LWP)seasonality. Four surface types are defined: i) Permanent Ocean, ii) Land, iii) Permanent Ice, and iv) Transient Sea Ice. The Transient Ice regions are further divided into sub-regions according to the onset dates of melt/freeze season. Results show that the sea ice cover has no significant direct influence on the seasonal variation of the water vapor in the lower troposphere and the low-level cloud LWP. Rather, the role played by sea ice appear indirect by modifying the surface temperature response to increased solar insolation and influencing lower tropospheric stability (LTS). The results suggest that the combined increase in atmospheric water vapor due to warming air temperatures and the weakening of the inversion strength that governs the seasonal structure of cloud LWP. Over Transient Ice regions, the results suggest that the May peak in LWP coincides with a decrease in LTS and that is insensitive to melt and freeze onset. Variations in melt and freeze onset set are found to influence probably distribution of cloud LWP where regions of earlier melt and later freeze onset how a higher likelihood of larger values.

Yueyue Yu↗

Organic Ices in Titan's Stratosphere

Titan’s stratospheric ice clouds are by far the most complex of any observed in the solar system, with over a dozen organic vapors condensing out to form a suite of pure and co-condensed ices, typically observed at high winter polar latitudes. Once these stratospheric ices are formed, they will diffuse throughout Titan’s lower atmosphere and most will eventually precipitate to the surface, where they are expected to contribute to Titan’s regolith. Early and important contributions were first made by the InfraRed Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) on Voyager 1, followed by notable contributions from IRIS’ successor, the Cassini Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS), and to a lesser extent, from Cassini’s Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) and the Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) instruments. All three remote sensing instruments made new ice cloud discoveries, combined with monitoring the seasonal behaviors and time evolution throughout Cassini’s 13-year mission tenure. A significant advance by CIRS was the realization that co-condensing chemical compounds can account for many of the CIRS-observed stratospheric ice cloud spectral features, especially for some that were previously puzzling, even though some of the observed spectral features are still not well understood. Relevant laboratory transmission spectroscopy efforts began just after the Voyager encounters, and have accelerated in the last few years due to new experimental efforts aimed at simulating co-condensed ices in Titan’s stratosphere. This review details the current state of knowledge regarding the organic ice clouds in Titan’s stratosphere, with perspectives from both observational and experimental standpoints.

Astronomy↗

Organic Ices in Titan's Stratosphere

Titan’s stratospheric ice clouds are by far the most complex of any observed in the solar system, with over a dozen organic vapors condensing out to form a suite of pure and co-condensed ices, typically observed at high winter polar latitudes. Once these stratospheric ices are formed, they will diffuse throughout Titan’s lower atmosphere and most will eventually precipitate to the surface, where they are expected to contribute to Titan’s regolith. Early and important contributions were first made by the InfraRed Interferometer Spectrometer (IRIS) on Voyager 1, followed by notable contributions from IRIS’ successor, the Cassini Composite InfraRed Spectrometer (CIRS), and to a lesser extent, from Cassini’s Visible and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) and the Imaging Science Subsystem (ISS) instruments. All three remote sensing instruments made new ice cloud discoveries, combined with monitoring the seasonal behaviors and time evolution throughout Cassini’s 13-year mission tenure. A significant advance by CIRS was the realization that co-condensing chemical compounds can account for many of the CIRS-observed stratospheric ice cloud spectral features, especially for some that were previously puzzling, even though some of the observed spectral features are still not well understood. Relevant laboratory transmission spectroscopy efforts began just after the Voyager encounters, and have accelerated in the last few years due to new experimental efforts aimed at simulating co-condensed ices in Titan’s stratosphere. This review details the current state of knowledge regarding the organic ice clouds in Titan’s stratosphere, with perspectives from both observational and experimental standpoints.

C. M. Anderson↗

Detecting Seasonal Ice Dynamics in Satellite Images

Fully understanding how glaciers respond to environmental change will require new methods to help us identify the onset of ice acceleration events and observe how dynamic signals propagate within glaciers. In particular, observations of ice dynamics on seasonal timescales may offer insights into how a glacier interacts with various forcing mechanisms throughout the year. The task of generating continuous ice velocity time series that resolve seasonal variability is made more difficult by a spotty satellite record that contains no optical observations throughout the dark, polar winters. Furthermore, velocities obtained by feature tracking are marked by high noise when image pairs are separated by short time intervals and contain no direct insights into variability that occurs between images separated by long time intervals. In this paper, we describe a method of analyzing optical or SAR-derived feature-tracked velocities to characterize the magnitude and timing of seasonal ice dynamic variability. Our method is agnostic to data gaps and is able to recover climatological average winter velocities regardless of the availability of direct observations during winter. Using characteristic image acquisition times and error distributions from Antarctic image pairs in the ITS_LIVE dataset, we generate synthetic ice velocity time series, then apply our method to recover imposed magnitudes of seasonal variability within ±1.4 m yr−1. We then validate the techniques by comparing our results to GPS data collected on Russell Glacier in Greenland. The methods presented here may be applied to better understand how ice dynamic signals propagate on seasonal timescales, and what mechanisms control the flow of the world’s ice.

Chad A. Greene↗

Measuring Multiple Cosmogenic Nuclides in Glacial Cobbles Sheds Light on Greenland Ice Sheet Processes

The extent and erosivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Pleistocene remain uncertain due to the paucity of evidence predating the Last Glacial Maximum. Here, we employ a novel approach, cosmogenic nuclide analysis of individual subglacial cobbles, which allows us to infer the behavior of the ice sheet over time and space. From three locations in western Greenland, we collected 86 cobbles from the current ice sheet margin and nine cobbles exposed on the modern proglacial land surface. We measured the concentration of in situ 10Be in all cobbles (n= 95) and 26Al and 14C in a subset (n= 14). Cobbles deposited during Holocene retreat have 10Be exposure ages generally consistent with the timing of ice retreat determined by other means. Conversely, most of the 86 subglacial cobbles contain very low concentrations of 10Be (median 1.0 x 10^3 atoms g-1), although several have ~10^4 and one has ~10^5 atoms g-1. The low concentrations of 10Be in most subglacial cobbles imply that their source areas under the Greenland Ice Sheet are deeply eroded, preserving minimal evidence of surface or near-surface exposure. The presence of measurable 14C in ten of the cobbles requires that they experienced cosmogenic nuclide production within the past ~30 ka; however, 14C/10Be ratios of ~6 suggest that production occurred beneath thin overlying rock, sediment, and/or ice, where the muon component of 14C production dominates. Only two of the 86 subglacial cobbles definitively have cosmogenic nuclide concentrations consistent with prior surface exposure during times of reduced ice extent. Overall, isotopic analysis of subglacial cobbles indicates that western Greenland's subglacial landscape is characterized by deep erosion and minimal subaerial exposure.

Pliocene↗

Computational Heat Flux Analysis for HEATheR Electric Aircraft Wing Ice Protection Systems

Increased electrification of aircraft systems, a growing trend in the aircraft industry, affects subsystems that have historically been pneumatically driven by the engine. Optimized design of propulsion and power systems must account for the requirements of these subsystems. One such subsystem, the wing ice protection system, is the focus of this paper. A preliminary computational icing analysis has been conducted using the LEWICE and ANSYS FENSAP-ICE software to characterize the requirements of a thermal ice protection system for three More Electric Aircraft concepts. This paper summarizes the methodology, simulation execution, and icing conditions used for the analysis as well as discusses the results, observed trends, and impacts to system design. This initial analysis indicates that the computed heat requirements for the wing ice protection systems are not within the capabilities of known traditional systems. A discussion of potential methods for reducing the heat flow requirement by the ice protection system is included. Potential refinements to the analysis to improve the accuracy are also discussed.

Nic Heersema↗

Decay of the Snow Cover Over Arctic Sea Ice From ICESat‐2 Acquisitions During Summer Melt in 2019

From the onset of melt in early June, corresponding declines in Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite‐2 (ICESat‐2) freeboard and surface albedo can be seen over the entire Arctic sea ice cover. In the 2019 summer, area‐averaged freeboard decreased from 34 cm prior to melt to a minimum of 12 cm in August while the area‐averaged albedo decreased from ~0.7 to 0.38 for the same period. Calculations using ICESat‐2 freeboards and modeled ice thickness from Pan‐Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) give area‐averaged snow depths ranging from 17 cm prior to melt to 3 cm in August over seasonal ice and from 34 to 4 cm over multiyear ice. Mean rates of snow ablation (including evaporation) in mid‐June were as high as 2 cm/day, comparable to field records from other years. Increases in freeboard after mid‐August in the high latitude (>80°N) multiyear ice cover, north of the Greenland coast, are likely due to earlier freeze‐up and snow accumulation in these regions with shorter melt seasons.

R Kwok↗

Interannual variations in meltwater input to the Southern Ocean from Antarctic ice shelves

Ocean-driven basal melting of Antarctica’s floating ice shelves accounts for about half of their mass loss in steady state, where gains in ice-shelf mass are balanced by losses. Ice-shelf thickness changes driven by varying basal melt rates modulate mass loss from the grounded ice sheet and its contribution to sea level, and the changing meltwater fluxes influence climate processes in the Southern Ocean. Existing continent-wide melt-rate datasets have no temporal variability, introducing uncertainties in sea level and climate projections. Here, we combine surface height data from satellite radar altimeters with satellite-derived ice velocities and a new model of firn-layer evolution to generate a high-resolution map of time-averaged (2010–2018) basal melt rates and time series (1994–2018) of meltwater fluxes for most ice shelves. Total basal meltwater flux in 1994 (1,090 ± 150 Gt/yr) was similar to the steady-state value (1,100 ± 60 Gt/yr), but increased to 1,570 ± 140 Gt/yr in 2009, followed by a decline to 1,160 ± 150 Gt/yr in 2018. For the four largest ‘cold-water’ ice shelves, we partition meltwater fluxes into deep and shallow sources to reveal distinct signatures of temporal variability, providing insights into climate forcing of basal melting and the impact of this melting on the Southern Ocean.

Susheel Adusumilli↗

Assimilation of Sea Ice Thickness Derived from Cryosat-2 Along-Track Freeboard Measurements into the Met Office's Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM)

The feasibility of assimilating sea ice thickness (SIT) observations derived from CryoSat-2 along-track measurements of sea ice freeboard is successfully demonstrated using a 3D-Var assimilation scheme, NEMOVAR, within the Met Office's global, coupled ocean–sea-ice model, Forecast Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM). The CryoSat-2 Arctic freeboard measurements are produced by the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) and are converted to SIT within FOAM using modelled snow depth. This is the first time along-track observations of SIT have been used in this way, with other centres assimilating gridded and temporally averaged observations. The assimilation leads to improvements in the SIT analysis and forecast fields generated by FOAM, particularly in the Canadian Arctic. Arctic-wide observation-minus-background assimilation statistics for 2015–2017 show improvements of 0.75 m mean difference and 0.41 m root-mean-square difference (RMSD) in the freeze-up period and 0.46 m mean difference and 0.33 m RMSD in the ice break-up period. Validation of the SIT analysis against independent springtime in situ SIT observations from NASA Operation IceBridge (OIB) shows improvement in the SIT analysis of 0.61 m mean difference (0.42 m RMSD) compared to a control without SIT assimilation. Similar improvements are seen in the FOAM 5 d SIT forecast. Validation of the SIT assimilation with independent Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project (BGEP) sea ice draft observations does not show an improvement, since the assimilated CryoSat-2 observations compare similarly to the model without assimilation in this region. Comparison with airborne electromagnetic induction (Air-EM) combined measurements of SIT and snow depth shows poorer results for the assimilation compared to the control, despite covering similar locations to the OIB and BGEP datasets. This may be evidence of sampling uncertainty in the matchups with the Air-EM validation dataset, owing to the limited number of observations available over the time period of interest. This may also be evidence of noise in the SIT analysis or uncertainties in the modelled snow depth, in the assimilated SIT observations, or in the data used for validation. The SIT analysis could be improved by upgrading the observation uncertainties used in the assimilation. Despite the lack of CryoSat-2 SIT observations available for assimilation over the summer due to the detrimental effect of melt ponds on retrievals, it is shown that the model is able to retain improvements to the SIT field throughout the summer months due to prior, wintertime SIT assimilation. This also results in regional improvements to the July modelled sea ice concentration (SIC) of 5 % RMSD in the European sector, due to slower melt of the thicker sea ice.

Emma K. Fiedler↗