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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of TREAT Transient Test no. 15

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is preparing for the resumption of transient testing using the Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). In order to support the analysis of TREAT operation and experiment planning, the MAMMOTH reactor physics team has recently begun development of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for the TREAT core simulated via MAMMOTH. MAMMOTH is a high-fidelity three-dimensional transient multi-physics code developed at INL under the DOE-NE Advanced Modeling and Simulation program (NEAMS). This research is part of the development presenting some initial uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of TREAT Transient Test no. 15. In this summary, we employ the Sobol sampling strategy implemented in RAVEN to efficiently perform the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The idea is using Sobol functional decomposition with generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansions to estimate the responses of interest. The gPC coefficients are then computed via the sparse grid spectral projection method. In addition, this strategy includes evaluation of the second or higher order sensitivity indices, allowing the study of interactions between several input variables. The principal focus of this analysis is to quantify the uncertainties in the total power and maximum fuel temperatures with respect to uncertainties in the initial transient conditions, such as rated power, fuel temperature, graphite fuel density and control rod boron concentration. In addition, both the first order and second order time-dependent sensitivity indices are computed and analyzed. The results show that the interactions between initial control rod boron concentration and the rated power will contribute at most 1% to the total uncertainty of the power peak.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Searching for Neutrino Tridents in the NOvA Near Detector

This dissertation presents a search for neutrino trident production in the NOvA near detector through the coherent ``dimuon" channel: $\nu_\mu +\hspace{1pt}\text{X} \rightarrow \nu_\mu + \mu^- + \mu^+ +\hspace{1pt}\text{X}$. Trident production is a rare, purely electroweak process with sensitivity to physics beyond the Standard Model. The theoretical background, motivation for studying the process, and previous experimental measurements are reviewed. The analysis uses data collected by the NOvA near detector (ND) from Fermilab's Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) beam between November 2014 and February 2024, corresponding to an exposure of $25.5\times 10^{20}$ protons on target. The ND is a segmented tracking calorimeter located 800~m from the beam target, receiving neutrinos with a mean energy of 2~GeV. A multi-pass background reduction strategy is implemented, including the development of a novel dimuon-specific tracking technique. Trident candidates are identified using a boost ed decision tree classifier trained on simulated signal and background events. Limited background Monte Carlo statistics necessitate the use of functional fits to sideband data, which are extrapolated to estimate backgrounds in the signal region. The unblinded data contain 9 trident-like events, with an estimated background of 5.66 $\pm$ 5.15 events. This yields a best fit estimate of 3.34 tridents compared to the Standard Model prediction of 4.66. A profiled Feldman-Cousins method is used to determine a 90\% confidence interval of [0,9.1] on the number of signal events, corresponding to an upper limit of 1.95$\times$ the Standard Model prediction. This result represents the lowest energy search for trident events to date, and the first experimental contribution to the process in 27 years.

Bowles, Reed Scott [Indiana U.]↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ab initio electronic density in solids by many-body plane-wave auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo calculations

We present accurate many-body results of the electronic densities in several solid materials, including Si, NaCl, and Cu. These results are obtained using the ab initio auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC) method working in a plane-wave basis with norm-conserving, multiple-projector pseudopotentials. AFQMC has been shown to be an excellent many-body total energy method. Computation of observables and correlation functions other than the ground-state energy requires back-propagation, whose adaption and implementation in the plane-wave basis AFQMC framework are discussed in the present paper. This development allows us to compute correlation functions, electronic densities, and interatomic forces, paving the way for geometry optimizations and calculations of thermodynamic properties in solids. Finite supercell size effects are considerably more subtle in the many-body framework than in independent-electron calculations. We analyze the convergence of the electronic density, and obtain best estimates for the thermodynamic limit. The densities from several typical density functionals are benchmarked against our near-exact results. The electronic densities we obtained can also be used to help construct improved density functionals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2013

A full-spectral Bayesian reconstruction approach based on the material decomposition model applied in dual-energy computed tomography

Purpose: Dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) makes it possible to get two fractions of basis materials without segmentation. One is the soft-tissue equivalent water fraction and the other is the hard-matter equivalent bone fraction. Practical DECT measurements are usually obtained with polychromatic x-ray beams. Existing reconstruction approaches based on linear forward models without counting the beam polychromaticity fail to estimate the correct decomposition fractions and result in beam-hardening artifacts (BHA). The existing BHA correction approaches either need to refer to calibration measurements or suffer from the noise amplification caused by the negative-log preprocessing and the ill-conditioned water and bone separation problem. To overcome these problems, statistical DECT reconstruction approaches based on nonlinear forward models counting the beam polychromaticity show great potential for giving accurate fraction images.Methods: This work proposes a full-spectral Bayesian reconstruction approach which allows the reconstruction of high quality fraction images from ordinary polychromatic measurements. This approach is based on a Gaussian noise model with unknown variance assigned directly to the projections without taking negative-log. Referring to Bayesian inferences, the decomposition fractions and observation variance are estimated by using the joint maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation method. Subject to an adaptive prior model assigned to the variance, the joint estimation problem is then simplified into a single estimation problem. It transforms the joint MAP estimation problem into a minimization problem with a nonquadratic cost function. To solve it, the use of a monotone conjugate gradient algorithm with suboptimal descent steps is proposed.Results: The performance of the proposed approach is analyzed with both simulated and experimental data. The results show that the proposed Bayesian approach is robust to noise and materials. It is also necessary to have the accurate spectrum information about the source-detector system. When dealing with experimental data, the spectrum can be predicted by a Monte Carlo simulator. For the materials between water and bone, less than 5% separation errors are observed on the estimated decomposition fractions.Conclusions: The proposed approach is a statistical reconstruction approach based on a nonlinear forward model counting the full beam polychromaticity and applied directly to the projections without taking negative-log. Compared to the approaches based on linear forward models and the BHA correction approaches, it has advantages in noise robustness and reconstruction accuracy.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

IMPACT OF η{sub Earth} ON THE CAPABILITIES OF AFFORDABLE SPACE MISSIONS TO DETECT BIOSIGNATURES ON EXTRASOLAR PLANETS

We present an analytic model to estimate the capabilities of space missions dedicated to the search for biosignatures in the atmosphere of rocky planets located in the habitable zone of nearby stars. Relations between performance and mission parameters, such as mirror diameter, distance to targets, and radius of planets, are obtained. Two types of instruments are considered: coronagraphs observing in the visible, and nulling interferometers in the thermal infrared. Missions considered are: single-pupil coronagraphs with a 2.4 m primary mirror, and formation-flying interferometers with 4 × 0.75 m collecting mirrors. The numbers of accessible planets are calculated as a function of η{sub Earth}. When Kepler gives its final estimation for η{sub Earth}, the model will permit a precise assessment of the potential of each instrument. Based on current estimations, η{sub Earth} = 10% around FGK stars and 50% around M stars, the coronagraph could study in spectroscopy only ∼1.5 relevant planets, and the interferometer ∼14.0. These numbers are obtained under the major hypothesis that the exozodiacal light around the target stars is low enough for each instrument. In both cases, a prior detection of planets is assumed and a target list established. For the long-term future, building both types of spectroscopic instruments, and using them on the same targets, will be the optimal solution because they provide complementary information. But as a first affordable space mission, the interferometer looks the more promising in terms of biosignature harvest.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Parameter estimation for incidence angle modifier models for photovoltaic modules

We present methods to estimate parameters for models for the incidence angle modifier for simulating irradiance on a photovoltaic array. The incidence angle modifier quantifies the fraction of direct irradiance that is reflected away at the array’s face, as a function of the direct irradiance’s angle of incidence. Parameters can be estimated from data and the fitting method can be used to convert between models. We show that the model conversion procedure results in models that produce similar annual insolation on a fixed plane.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the correlation between plastic strain and misorientation in polycrystalline body-centered-cubic microstructures with an emphasis on the grain size, loading history, and crystallographic orientation

In this work, the correlation between plastic strain and crystallographic misorientation, grain size, grain orientation, distance from grain boundary, and loading history were investigated experimentally and numerically for body-centered-cubic (BCC) polycrystalline microstructures based on a misorientation deviation (MD) approach. Nine monotonic tensile experiments were performed on two BCC titanium alloys inside a scanning electron microscope (SEM). The influence of reference orientation was explored both at the grain scale and at the mesoscale using electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD). The correlation between global plastic strain and the MD was quantified. The tendency for orientation change was quantified as a function of plastic strain and grain orientation for three crystallographic orientations (i.e., [100], [110], and [111]) with respect to tensile direction. The subpopulation of small grains exhibited a lower level of misorientation dispersion compared with larger grains, and this discrepancy became more pronounced at higher strains. An empirical equation was proposed to estimate the level of misorientation dispersion for individual grains as a function of grain size and global plastic strain level. Two interrupted in-situ SEM experiments were performed, and this resulted in a significantly increased misorientation compared with uninterrupted tests performed to similar plastic strain levels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Prevalence of Self-Reported Bothersome Tinnitus in U.S. Army Soldiers From January 1, 2015, Through September 30, 2019

Purpose: Tinnitus is a symptom of auditory dysfunction or injury and can be a precursor to permanent hearing loss. Tinnitus can interfere with communication, sleep, concentration, and mood; when this occurs, it is referred to as bothersome tinnitus. Annual hearing surveillance in the U.S. Army includes screening for bothersome tinnitus. Estimating the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus can facilitate prioritization of prevention and education efforts. The objective of this study was to examine Army hearing conservation data to estimate the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus as a function of age, hearing, sex, service component, and pay grade. Method: The study employed a cross-sectional, retrospective design. Records from 1,485,059 U.S. Army Soldiers retrieved from the Defense Occupational and Environmental Health Readiness System–Hearing Conservation were analyzed. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression analysis were used to estimate the prevalence of bothersome tinnitus and its associations with Soldiers' demographic characteristics. Results: The estimated prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus was 17.1% between January 1, 2015, and September 30, 2019; 13.6% of the Soldiers reported “bothered a little” and 3.5% reported “bothered a lot.” Proportionally, the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus was higher for males, older Soldiers, and Reserve Component Soldiers. For every 1-year increase in age, the odds of self-reporting “bothered a little” tinnitus relative to “bothered not at all tinnitus” would be expected to increase by 2.2% (2.1%, 2.3%), and the odds of self-reporting “bothered a lot” tinnitus relative to “bothered not at all” tinnitus would be expected to increase by 3.6% (3.5%, 3.7%). Conclusions: The self-reported prevalence of bothersome tinnitus in the U.S. Army (17.1%) is substantially higher than that of the general population, where prevalence of bothersome tinnitus is estimated at 6.6%. Examination of bothersome tinnitus among Soldiers is an important step toward optimizing prevention, education, and intervention efforts.

Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Linking Community‐Climate Disequilibrium to Ecosystem Function

Turnover in species composition often lags behind the pace of climate change, resulting in mismatches between climate and communities. However, the impact of these community‐climate disequilibria on ecosystem functions is rarely considered, and current methods for measuring disequilibria assume that species ranges were, until recently, in equilibrium with climate. Here, in this work, we develop a simple theoretical model to address both of these problems by linking community‐climate disequilibrium with ecosystem functioning. We show how disequilibrium can impair functioning in the near‐term even when climate change is expected to enhance functioning in the long‐term. Responses are most likely to change over time in communities where turnover is slow, the impact of disequilibrium counteracts the direct effects of climate on ecosystem function, and pre‐existing disequilibrium is large. These findings emphasise the importance of precise and unbiased estimates of community‐climate disequilibria for improving ecological forecasts. By fitting our model to time series of both climate and ecosystem function from a metacommunity simulation, we show the potential for community‐climate disequilibrium to be inferred without direct knowledge about species' distributions or climatic tolerances. We end by outlining a research agenda to apply dynamic disequilibrium concepts and test novel hypotheses across diverse ecosystems.

climate change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Clustering of CODEX clusters

The clustering of galaxy clusters links the spatial nonuniformity of dark matter halos to the growth of the primordial spectrum of perturbations. The amplitude of the clustering signal is widely used to estimate the halo mass of astrophysical objects. The advent of cluster mass calibrations enables using clustering in cosmological studies. Aims. We analyze the autocorrelation function of a large contiguous sample of galaxy clusters, the Constrain Dark Energy with X-ray (CODEX) sample, in which we take particular care of cluster definition. These clusters were X-ray selected using the ROentgen SATellite All-Sky Survey and then identified as galaxy clusters using the code redMaPPer run on the photometry of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We develop methods for precisely accounting for the sample selection effects on the clustering and demonstrate their robustness using numerical simulations. Methods. Using the clean CODEX sample, which was obtained by applying a redshift-dependent richness selection, we computed the two-point autocorrelation function of galaxy clusters in the 0.1 < z < 0.3 and 0.3 < z < 0.5 redshift bins. We compared the bias in the measured correlation function with values obtained in numerical simulations using a similar cluster mass range. Results. By fitting a power law, we measured a correlation length r 0 = 18.7 ± 1.1 and slope γ = 1.98 ± 0.14 for the correlation function in the full redshift range. By fixing the other cosmological parameters to their nine-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe values, we reproduced the observed shape of the correlation function under the following cosmological conditions: Ω m0 = $0.22_{-0.03}^{+0.04}$ and S 8 = σ 8 (Ω m0 /0.3)0.5 = $0.85_{-0.08}^{+0.10}$ with estimated additional systematic errors of σ Ω m0 = 0.02 and σS 8 = 0.20. We illustrate the complementarity of clustering constraints by combining them with CODEX cosmological constraints based on the X-ray luminosity function, deriving Ωm = 0.25 ± 0.01 and σ 8 = $0.81_{-0.02}^{+0.01}$ with an estimated additional systematic error of σ Ω m0 = 0.07 and σ σ8 = 0.04. The mass calibration and statistical quality of the mass tracers are the dominant source of uncertainty.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Advanced Methods for Modeling Water-Levels and Estimating Drawdowns with SeriesSEE, an Excel Add-In

Water-level modeling is used for multiple-well aquifer tests to reliably differentiate pumping responses from natural water-level changes in wells, or environmental fluctuations. Synthetic water levels are created during water-level modeling and represent the summation of multiple component fluctuations, including those caused by environmental forcing and pumping. Pumping signals are modeled by transforming step-wise pumping records into water-level changes by using superimposed Theis functions. Water-levels can be modeled robustly with this Theis-transform approach because environmental fluctuations and pumping signals are simulated simultaneously. Water-level modeling with Theis transforms has been implemented in the program SeriesSEE, which is a Microsoft® Excel add-in. Moving average, Theis, pneumatic-lag, and gamma functions transform time series of measured values into water-level model components in SeriesSEE. Earth tides and step transforms are additional computed water-level model components. Water-level models are calibrated by minimizing a sum-of-squares objective function where singular value decomposition and Tikhonov regularization stabilize results. Drawdown estimates from a water-level model are the summation of all Theis transforms minus residual differences between synthetic and measured water levels. The accuracy of drawdown estimates is limited primarily by noise in the data sets, not the Theis-transform approach. Drawdowns much smaller than environmental fluctuations have been detected across major fault structures, at distances of more than 1 mile from the pumping well, and with limited pre-pumping and recovery data at sites across the United States. In addition to water-level modeling, utilities exist in SeriesSEE for viewing, cleaning, manipulating, and analyzing time-series data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

First-Principles Calculation of Water p K a Using the Newly Developed SCAN Functional

Acid/base chemistry is an intriguing topic that still constitutes a challenge for computational chemistry. While estimating the acid dissociation constant (or pK a ) could shed light on many chemistry processes, especially in the fields of biochemistry and geochemistry, evaluating the relative stability between protonated and nonprotonated species is often very difficult. Indeed, a prerequisite for calculating the pK a of any molecule is an accurate description of the energetics of water dissociation. In this study, we applied constrained molecular dynamics simulations, a noncanonical sampling technique, to investigate the water deprotonation process by selecting the OH distance as the reaction coordinate. The calculation is based on density functional theory and the newly developed SCAN functional, which has shown excellent performance in describing water structure. This first benchmark of SCAN on a chemical reaction shows that this functional accurately models the energetics of proton transfer reactions in an aqueous environment. After taking Coulomb long-range corrections and nuclear quantum effects into account, the estimated water pK a is only 1.0 pK a unit different from the target experimental value. Our results show that the combination of SCAN and constrained MD successfully reproduces the chemistry of water and constitutes a good framework for calculating the free energy of chemical reactions of interest.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Gauges, loops, and polynomials for partition functions of graphical models

Graphical models represent multivariate and generally not normalized probability distributions. Computing the normalization factor, called the partition function, is the main inference challenge relevant to multiple statistical and optimization applications. The problem is #P-hard that is of an exponential complexity with respect to the number of variables. Here, aimed at approximating the partition function, we consider multi-graph models where binary variables and multivariable factors are associated with edges and nodes, respectively, of an undirected multi-graph. We suggest a new methodology for analysis and computations that combines the Gauge function technique from Chertkov and Chernyak with the technique developed in Anari and Oveis Gharan 2017 arXiv:1702.02937; Gurvits 2011 arXiv:1106.2844; Straszak and Vishnoi 2017 55th Annual Allerton Conf. on Communication, Control, and Computing, based on the recent progress in the field of real stable polynomials. We show that the Gauge function, representing a single-out term in a finite sum expression for the partition function which achieves extremum at the so-called belief-propagation gauge, has a natural polynomial representation in terms of gauges/variables associated with edges of the multi-graph. Moreover, Gauge function can be used to recover the partition function through a sequence of transformations allowing appealing algebraic and graphical interpretations. Algebraically, one step in the sequence consists of the application of a differential operator over gauges associated with an edge. Graphically, the sequence is interpreted as a repetitive elimination/contraction of edges resulting in multi-graph models on decreasing in size (number of edges) graphs with the same partition function as in the original multi-graph model. Even though the complexity of computing factors in the sequence of the derived multi-graph models and respective Gauge functions grow exponentially with the number of eliminated edges, polynomials associated with the new factors remain bi-stable if the original factors have this property. Moreover, we show that BP estimations in the sequence do not decrease, each low-bounding the partition function.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Seismic source functions from free-field ground motions recorded on SPE: Implications for source models of small, shallow explosions

In this, reduced displacement potentials (RDPs) for chemical explosions of the Source Physics Experiments (SPE) in granite at the Nevada Nuclear Security Site are estimated from free-field ground motion recordings. Far-field P wave source functions are proportional to the time derivative of RDPs. Frequency domain comparisons between measured source functions and model predictions show that high-frequency amplitudes roll off as ω -2 , but models fail to predict the observed seismic moment, corner frequency, and spectral overshoot. All three features are fit satisfactorily for the SPE-2 test after cavity radius R c is reduced by 12%, elastic radius is reduced by 58%, and peak-to-static pressure ratio on the elastic radius is increased by 100%, all with respect to the Mueller-Murphy model modified with the Denny-Johnson R c scaling law. A large discrepancy is found between the cavity volume inferred from RDPs and the volume estimated from laser scans of the emplacement hole. The measurements imply a scaled R c of ~5 m/kt 1/3 , more than a factor of 2 smaller than nuclear explosions. Less than 25% of the seismic moment can be attributed to cavity formation. A breakdown of the incompressibility assumption due to shear dilatancy of the source medium around the cavity is the likely explanation. New formulas are developed for volume changes due to medium bulking (or compaction). A 0.04% decrease of average density inside the elastic radius accounts for the missing volumetric moment. Assuming incompressibility, established R c scaling laws predicted the moment reasonable well, but it was only fortuitous because dilation of the source medium compensated for the small cavity volume.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2013

ESTIMATING THE PROPERTIES OF HARD X-RAY SOLAR FLARES BY CONSTRAINING MODEL PARAMETERS

We wish to better constrain the properties of solar flares by exploring how parameterized models of solar flares interact with uncertainty estimation methods. We compare four different methods of calculating uncertainty estimates in fitting parameterized models to Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager X-ray spectra, considering only statistical sources of error. Three of the four methods are based on estimating the scale-size of the minimum in a hypersurface formed by the weighted sum of the squares of the differences between the model fit and the data as a function of the fit parameters, and are implemented as commonly practiced. The fourth method is also based on the difference between the data and the model, but instead uses Bayesian data analysis and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to calculate an uncertainty estimate. Two flare spectra are modeled: one from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X1.3 class flare of 2005 January 19, and the other from the X4.8 flare of 2002 July 23. We find that the four methods give approximately the same uncertainty estimates for the 2005 January 19 spectral fit parameters, but lead to very different uncertainty estimates for the 2002 July 23 spectral fit. This is because each method implements different analyses of the hypersurface, yielding method-dependent results that can differ greatly depending on the shape of the hypersurface. The hypersurface arising from the 2005 January 19 analysis is consistent with a normal distribution; therefore, the assumptions behind the three non-Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are satisfied and similar estimates are found. The 2002 July 23 analysis shows that the hypersurface is not consistent with a normal distribution, indicating that the assumptions behind the three non-Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are not satisfied, leading to differing estimates of the uncertainty. We find that the shape of the hypersurface is crucial in understanding the output from each uncertainty estimation technique, and that a crucial factor determining the shape of hypersurface is the location of the low-energy cutoff relative to energies where the thermal emission dominates. The Bayesian/MCMC approach also allows us to provide detailed information on probable values of the low-energy cutoff, E{sub c} , a crucial parameter in defining the energy content of the flare-accelerated electrons. We show that for the 2002 July 23 flare data, there is a 95% probability that E{sub c} lies below approximately 40 keV, and a 68% probability that it lies in the range 7-36 keV. Further, the low-energy cutoff is more likely to be in the range 25-35 keV than in any other 10 keV wide energy range. The low-energy cutoff for the 2005 January 19 flare is more tightly constrained to 107 {+-} 4 keV with 68% probability. Using the Bayesian/MCMC approach, we also estimate for the first time probability density functions for the total number of flare-accelerated electrons and the energy they carry for each flare studied. For the 2002 July 23 event, these probability density functions are asymmetric with long tails orders of magnitude higher than the most probable value, caused by the poorly constrained value of the low-energy cutoff. The most probable electron power is estimated at 10{sup 28.1} erg s{sup -1}, with a 68% credible interval estimated at 10{sup 28.1}-10{sup 29.0} erg s{sup -1}, and a 95% credible interval estimated at 10{sup 28.0}-10{sup 30.2} erg s{sup -1}. For the 2005 January 19 flare spectrum, the probability density functions for the total number of flare-accelerated electrons and their energy are much more symmetric and narrow: the most probable electron power is estimated at 10{sup 27.66{+-}0.01} erg s{sup -1} (68% credible intervals). However, in this case the uncertainty due to systematic sources of error is estimated to dominate the uncertainty due to statistical sources of error.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

The H i content of the universe over the past 10 GYR

We use the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) archive of ultraviolet (UV) quasar spectroscopy to conduct the first blind survey for damped Lyα absorbers (DLAs) at low redshift (z<1.6). Our statistical sample includes 463 quasars with spectral coverage spanning a total redshift path Δz=123.3 or an absorption path ΔX=229.7. Within this survey path, we identify 4 DLAs defined as absorbers with H i column density N{sub HI} ⩾ 10{sup 20.3} cm{sup −2}, which implies an incidence per absorption length ℓ{sub DLA}(X) = 0.017{sub −0.008}{sup +0.014} at a median survey path redshift of z = 0.623. While our estimate of ℓ{sub DLA}(X) is lower than earlier estimates at z≈0 from H i 21 cm emission studies, the results are consistent within the measurement uncertainties. Our data set is too small to properly sample the N{sub HI} frequency distribution function f(N{sub HI},X), but the observed distribution agrees with previous estimates at z>2. Adopting the z>2 shape of f(N{sub HI},X), we infer an H i mass density at z∼0.6 of ρ{sub H I}{sup DLA} = 0.25{sub −0.12}{sup +0.20}×10{sup 8}M{sub ⊙} Mpc{sup −3}. This is significantly lower than previous estimates from targeted DLA surveys with the HST, but consistent with results from low-z H i 21 cm observations, and suggests that the neutral gas density of the universe has been decreasing over the past 10 Gyr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Asymptotic Behavior of Memristive Circuits

The interest in memristors has risen due to their possible application both as memory units and as computational devices in combination with CMOS. This is in part due to their nonlinear dynamics, and a strong dependence on the circuit topology. We provide evidence that also purely memristive circuits can be employed for computational purposes. In the present paper we show that a polynomial Lyapunov function in the memory parameters exists for the case of DC controlled memristors. Such a Lyapunov function can be asymptotically approximated with binary variables, and mapped to quadratic combinatorial optimization problems. This also shows a direct parallel between memristive circuits and the Hopfield-Little model. In the case of Erdos-Renyi random circuits, we show numerically that the distribution of the matrix elements of the projectors can be roughly approximated with a Gaussian distribution, and that it scales with the inverse square root of the number of elements. This provides an approximated but direct connection with the physics of disordered system and, in particular, of mean field spin glasses. Using this and the fact that the interaction is controlled by a projector operator on the loop space of the circuit. We estimate the number of stationary points of the approximate Lyapunov function and provide a scaling formula as an upper bound in terms of the circuit topology only.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Improved estimates of the Milky Way’s stellar mass and star formation rate from hierarchical Bayesian meta-analysis

We present improved estimates of several global properties of the Milky Way, including its current star formation rate (SFR), the stellar mass contained in its disk and bulge+bar components, as well as its total stellar mass. We do so by combining previous measurements from the literature using a hierarchical Bayesian (HB) statistical method that allows us to account for the possibility that any value may be incorrect or have underestimated errors. We show that this method is robust to a wide variety of assumptions about the nature of problems in individual measurements or error estimates. Ultimately, our analysis yields an SFR for the Galaxy of M-dot {sub ⋆}=1.65±0.19 M{sub ⊙} yr{sup −1}, assuming a Kroupa initial mass function (IMF). By combining HB methods with Monte Carlo simulations that incorporate the latest estimates of the Galactocentric radius of the Sun, R{sub 0}, the exponential scale length of the disk, L{sub d}, and the local surface density of stellar mass, Σ{sub ⋆}(R{sub 0}), we show that the mass of the Galactic bulge+bar is M{sub ⋆}{sup B}=0.91±0.07×10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙}, the disk mass is M{sub ⋆}{sup D}=5.17±1.11×10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙}, and their combination yields a total stellar mass of M{sub ⋆}=6.08±1.14×10{sup 10} M{sub ⊙} (assuming a Kroupa IMF and an exponential disk profile). This analysis is based upon a new compilation of literature bulge mass estimates, normalized to common assumptions about the stellar IMF and Galactic disk properties, presented herein. We additionally find a bulge-to-total mass ratio for the Milky Way of B/T=0.150{sub −0.019}{sup +0.028} and a specific SFR of M-dot {sub ⋆}/M{sub ⋆}=2.71±0.59×10{sup −11} yr{sup −1}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗