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At least 1,513 records · Page 84

Optimal estimation of large structure model errors

In-flight estimation of large structure model errors is usually required as a means of detecting inevitable deficiencies in large structure controller/estimator models. The present paper deals with a least-squares formulation which seeks to minimize a quadratic functional of the model errors. The properties of these error estimates are analyzed. It is shown that an arbitrary model error can be decomposed as the sum of two components that are orthogonal in a suitably defined function space. Relations between true and estimated errors are defined. The estimates are found to be approximations that retain many of the significant dynamics of the true model errors. Current efforts are directed toward application of the analytical results to a reference large structure model.

Rodriguez, G.↗

On the induced gravitational collapse scenario of gamma-ray bursts associated with supernovae

Following the induced gravitational collapse (IGC) paradigm of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) associated with type Ib/c supernovae, we present numerical simulations of the explosion of a carbon–oxygen (CO) core in a binary system with a neutron-star (NS) companion. The supernova ejecta trigger a hypercritical accretion process onto the NS thanks to a copious neutrino emission and the trapping of photons within the accretion flow. We show that temperatures of 1–10 MeV develop near the NS surface, hence electron–positron annihilation into neutrinos becomes the main cooling channel leading to accretion rates of 10{sup −9}–10{sup −1} M{sub ⊙} s{sup −1} and neutrino luminosities of 10{sup 43}–10{sup 52} erg s{sup −1} (the shorter the orbital period the higher the accretion rate). We estimate the maximum orbital period, P{sub max}, as a function of the NS initial mass, up to which the NS companion can reach by hypercritical accretion the critical mass for gravitational collapse leading to black hole formation. We then estimate the effects of the accreting and orbiting NS companion onto a novel geometry of the supernova ejecta density profile. We present the results of a 1.4×10{sup 7} particle simulation which show that the NS induces accentuated asymmetries in the ejecta density around the orbital plane. We elaborate on the observables associated with the above features of the IGC process. We apply this framework to specific GRBs: we find that X-ray flashes (XRFs) and binary-driven hypernovae are produced in binaries with P>P{sub max} and P<P{sub max}, respectively. We analyze in detail the case of XRF 060218.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mass and Momentum Transport in Microcavities for Diffusion-Dominant Cell Culture Applications

For the informed design of microfluidic devices, it is important to understand transport phenomena at the microscale. This letter outlines an analytically-driven approach to the design of rectangular microcavities extending perpendicular to a perfusion microchannel for microfluidic cell culture devices. We present equations to estimate the spatial transition from advection- to diffusion-dominant transport inside cavities as a function of the geometry and flow conditions. We also estimate the time required for molecules, such as nutrients or drugs to travel from the microchannel to a given depth into the cavity. These analytical predictions can facilitate the rational design of microfluidic devices to optimize and maintain long-term, physiologically-based culture conditions with low fluid shear stress.

Yew, Alvin G.↗

A numerical approach for solving a class of variable-order fractional functional integral equations

This paper proposes new discretization techniques to estimate variable-order fractional integral operators based on the piecewise integro quadratic spline interpolation. The proposed methods are modified to solve a class of variable-order fractional functional integral equations. Moreover, we investigate the performance of the proposed methods by solving the variable-order fractional pantograph and Emden–Fowler functional integral equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Forest Canopy Cover and Height from MISR in Topographically Complex Southwestern US Landscape Assessed with High Quality Reference Data

This study addresses the retrieval of spatially contiguous canopy cover and height estimates in southwestern USforests via inversion of a geometric-optical (GO) model against surface bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) estimates from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). Model inversion can provide such maps if good estimates of the background bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) are available. The study area is in the Sierra National Forest in the Sierra Nevada of California. Tree number density, mean crown radius, and fractional cover reference estimates were obtained via analysis of QuickBird 0.6 m spatial resolution panchromatic imagery usingthe CANopy Analysis with Panchromatic Imagery (CANAPI) algorithm, while RH50, RH75 and RH100 (50, 75, and 100 energy return) height data were obtained from the NASA Laser Vegetation Imaging Sensor (LVIS), a full waveform light detection and ranging (lidar) instrument. These canopy parameters were used to drive a modified version of the simple GO model (SGM), accurately reproducing patterns ofMISR 672 nm band surface reflectance (mean RMSE 0.011, mean R2 0.82, N 1048). Cover and height maps were obtained through model inversion against MISR 672 nm reflectance estimates on a 250 m grid.The free parameters were tree number density and mean crown radius. RMSE values with respect to reference data for the cover and height retrievals were 0.05 and 6.65 m, respectively, with of 0.54 and 0.49. MISR can thus provide maps of forest cover and height in areas of topographic variation although refinements are required to improve retrieval precision.

Chopping, Mark↗

Estimation of Crop Gross Primary Production (GPP): I. Impact of MODIS Observation Footprint and Impact of Vegetation BRDF Characteristics

Accurate estimation of gross primary production (GPP) is essential for carbon cycle and climate change studies. Three AmeriFlux crop sites of maize and soybean were selected for this study. Two of the sites were irrigated and the other one was rainfed. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), the green band chlorophyll index (CIgreen), and the green band wide dynamic range vegetation index (WDRVIgreen) were computed from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface reflectance data. We examined the impacts of the MODIS observation footprint and the vegetation bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) on crop daily GPP estimation with the four spectral vegetation indices (VIs - NDVI, EVI, WDRVIgreen and CIgreen) where GPP was predicted with two linear models, with and without offset: GPP = a × VI × PAR and GPP = a × VI × PAR + b. Model performance was evaluated with coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of variation (CV). The MODIS data were filtered into four categories and four experiments were conducted to assess the impacts. The first experiment included all observations. The second experiment only included observations with view zenith angle (VZA) ≤ 35◦ to constrain growth of the footprint size,which achieved a better grid cell match with the agricultural fields. The third experiment included only forward scatter observations with VZA ≤ 35◦. The fourth experiment included only backscatter observations with VZA ≤ 35◦. Overall, the EVI yielded the most consistently strong relationships to daily GPP under all examined conditions. The model GPP = a × VI × PAR + b had better performance than the model GPP = a × VI × PAR, and the offset was significant for most cases. Better performance was obtained for the irrigated field than its counterpart rainfed field. Comparison of experiment 2 vs. experiment 1 was used to examine the observation footprint impact whereas comparison of experiment 4 vs. experiment 3 was used to examine the BRDF impact. Changes in R2, RMSE,CV and changes in model coefficients "a" and "b" (experiment 2 vs. experiment 1; and experiment 4 vs. experiment 3) were indicators of the impacts. The second experiment produced better performance than the first experiment, increasing R2 (↑0.13) and reducing RMSE (↓0.68 g C m−2 d−1) and CV (↓9%). For each VI, the slope of GPP = a × VI × PAR in the second experiment for each crop type changed little while the slope and intercept of GPP = a × VI × PAR + b varied field by field. The CIgreen was least affected by the MODIS observation footprint in estimating crop daily GPP (R2, ↑0.08; RMSE, ↓0.42 g C m−2 d−1; and CV, ↓7%). Footprint most affected the NDVI (R2, ↑0.15; CV, ↓10%) and the EVI (RMSE, ↓0.84 g C m−2 d−1). The vegetation BRDF impact also caused variation of model performance and change of model coefficients. Significantly different slopes were obtained for forward vs. backscatter observations, especially for the CIgreen and the NDVI. Both the footprint impact and the BRDF impact varied with crop types, irrigation options, model options and VI options.

Chlorophyll↗

Proposed Project Selection Method for Human Support Research and Technology Development (HSR&TD)

The purpose of HSR&TD is to deliver human support technologies to the Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) that will be selected for future missions. This requires identifying promising candidate technologies and advancing them in technology readiness until they are acceptable. HSR&TD must select an may of technology development projects, guide them, and either terminate or continue them, so as to maximize the resulting number of usable advanced human support technologies. This paper proposes an effective project scoring methodology to support managing the HSR&TD project portfolio. Researchers strongly disagree as to what are the best technology project selection methods, or even if there are any proven ones. Technology development is risky and outstanding achievements are rare and unpredictable. There is no simple formula for success. Organizations that are satisfied with their project selection approach typically use a mix of financial, strategic, and scoring methods in an open, established, explicit, formal process. This approach helps to build consensus and develop management insight. It encourages better project proposals by clarifying the desired project attributes. We propose a project scoring technique based on a method previously used in a federal laboratory and supported by recent research. Projects are ranked by their perceived relevance, risk, and return - a new 3 R's. Relevance is the degree to which the project objective supports the HSR&TD goal of developing usable advanced human support technologies. Risk is the estimated probability that the project will achieve its specific objective. Return is the reduction in mission life cycle cost obtained if the project is successful. If the project objective technology performs a new function with no current cost, its return is the estimated cash value of performing the new function. The proposed project selection scoring method includes definitions of the criteria, a project evaluation questionnaire, and a scoring formula.

Jones, Harry↗

Fundamental Properties of Co-moving Stars Observed by Gaia

We have estimated fundamental parameters for a sample of co-moving stars observed by Gaia and identified by Oh et al. We matched the Gaia observations to the 2MASS and Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer catalogs and fit MIST isochrones to the data, deriving estimates of the mass, radius, [Fe/H], age, distance, and extinction to 9754 stars in the original sample of 10606 stars. We verify these estimates by comparing our new results to previous analyses of nearby stars, examining fiducial cluster properties, and estimating the power-law slope of the local present-day mass function. A comparison to previous studies suggests that our mass estimates are robust, while metallicity and age estimates are increasingly uncertain. We use our calculated masses to examine the properties of binaries in the sample and show that separation of the pairs dominates the observed binding energies and expected lifetimes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the geometric dependence of the molecular dipole polarizability in water: A benchmark study of higher-order electron correlation, basis set incompleteness error, core electron effects, and zero-point vibrational contributions

In this work, we investigate how geometric changes influence the static dipole polarizability ($α$) of a water molecule by explicitly computing the corresponding dipole polarizability surface (DPS) across 3125 total (1625 symmetry-unique) geometries using linear response coupled cluster theory including single, double, and triple excitations (LR-CCSDT) and the doubly augmented triple-$ζ$ basis set (d-aug-cc-pVTZ). Analytical formulae based on power series expansions of this $ab initio$ surface are generated using linear least-squares analysis and provide highly accurate estimates of this quantity as a function of molecular geometry (i.e., bond and angle variations) in a computationally tractable manner. An additional database, which consists of 25 representative molecular geometries and incorporates a more thorough treatment of both basis sets and core electron effects, is provided as a current benchmark for this quantity and the corresponding leading-order $C_6$ dispersion coefficient. This database has been utilized to assess the importance of these effects as well as the relative accuracy that can be obtained using several quantum chemical methods and a library of density functional approximations. In addition to high-level electron correlation methods (like CCSD) and our analytical least-squares formulae, we find that the SCAN0, PBE0, MN15, and B97-2 hybrid functionals yield the most accurate descriptions of the molecular polarizability tensor in H 2 O. Using first-order perturbation theory, we compute the zero-point vibrational correction to $α$ at the CCSDT/d-aug-cc-pVTZ level and find that this correction contributes approximately 3% to the isotropic ($α$ iso ) and nearly 50% to the anisotropic ($α$ aniso ) polarizability values. In doing so, we find that $α$ iso = 9.8307 bohr 3 , which is in excellent agreement with the experimental value of 9.83 ± 0.02 bohr 3 provided by Russell and Spackman. The DPS reported herein provides a benchmark-quality quantum mechanical estimate of this fundamental quantity of interest and should find extensive use in the development (and assessment) of next-generation force fields and machine-learning based approaches for modeling water in complex condensed-phase environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Likelihood Methods for CMB Experiments

A great deal of experimental effort is currently being devoted to the precise measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) sky in temperature and polarization. Satellites, balloon-borne, and ground-based experiments scrutinize the CMB sky at multiple scales, and therefore enable to investigate not only the evolution of the early Universe, but also its late-time physics with unprecedented accuracy. The pipeline leading from time ordered data as collected by the instrument to the final product is highly structured. Moreover, it has also to provide accurate estimates of statistical and systematic uncertainties connected to the specific experiment. In this paper, we review likelihood approaches targeted to the analysis of the CMB signal at different scales, and to the estimation of key cosmological parameters. We consider methods that analyze the data in the spatial (i.e., pixel-based) or harmonic domain. We highlight the most relevant aspects of each approach and compare their performance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Simulating the dust content of galaxies: successes and failures

We present full-volume cosmological simulations, using the moving-mesh code AREPO to study the coevolution of dust and galaxies. We extend the dust model in AREPO to include thermal sputtering of grains and investigate the evolution of the dust mass function, the cosmic distribution of dust beyond the interstellar medium and the dependence of dust-to-stellar mass ratio on galactic properties. The simulated dust mass function is well described by a Schechter fit and lies closest to observations at z = 0. The radial scaling of projected dust surface density out to distances of 10 Mpc around galaxies with magnitudes 17 < i < 21 is similar to that seen in Sloan Digital Sky Survey data, albeit with a lower normalization. At z = 0, the predicted dust density of Ωdust ≈ 1.3 × 10 -6 lies in the range of Ωdust values seen in low-redshift observations. We find that the dust-to-stellar mass ratio anticorrelates with stellar mass for galaxies living along the star formation main sequence. Moreover, we estimate the 850 μm number density functions for simulated galaxies and analyse the relation between dust-to-stellar flux and mass ratios at z = 0. At high redshift, our model fails to produce enough dust-rich galaxies, and this tension is not alleviated by adopting a top-heavy initial mass function. We do not capture a decline in Ωdust from z = 2 to 0, which suggests that dust production mechanisms more strongly dependent on star formation may help to produce the observed number of dusty galaxies near the peak of cosmic star formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cost and Performance Model for Redox Flow Batteries

A cost model was developed for all vanadium and iron-vanadium redox flow batteries. Electrochemical performance modeling was done to estimate stack performance at various power densities as a function of state of charge. This was supplemented with a shunt current model and a pumping loss model to estimate actual system efficiency. The operating parameters such as power density, flow rates and design parameters such as electrode aspect ratio, electrolyte flow channel dimensions were adjusted to maximize efficiency and minimize capital costs. Detailed cost estimates were obtained from various vendors to calculate cost estimates for present, realistic and optimistic scenarios. The main drivers for cost reduction for various chemistries were identified as a function of the energy to power ratio of the storage system. Levelized cost analysis further guided suitability of various chemistries for different applications.

efficiency↗

SU-E-J-49: Distal Edge Activity Fall Off Of Proton Therapy Beams

Purpose: To characterize and quantify the distal edge activity fall off, created in a phantom by a proton therapy beam Method and Materials: A 30x30x10cm polymethylmethacrylate phantom was irradiated with a proton therapy beam using different ranges and beams. The irradiation volume is approximated by a right circular cylinder of diameter 7.6cm and varying lengths. After irradiation, the phantom was scanned via a Philips Gemini Big Bore™ PET-CT for isotope activation. Varian Eclipse™ treatment planning system as well as ImageJ™ were used to analyze the resulting PET and CT scans. The region of activity within the phantom was longitudinally measured as a function of PET slice number. Dose estimations were made via Monte Carlo (GATE) simulation. Results: For both the spread out Bragg peak (SOBP) and the mono-energetic pristine Bragg peak proton beams, the proximal activation rise was steep: average slope −0.735 (average intensity/slice number) ± 0.091 (standard deviation) for the pristine beams and −1.149 ± 0.117 for the SOBP beams. In contrast, the distal fall offs were dissimilar. The distal fall off in activity for the pristine beams was fit well by a linear curve: R{sup 2} (Pierson Product) was 0.9968, 0.9955 and 0.9909 for the 13.5, 17.0 and 21.0cm range beams respectively. The good fit allows for a slope comparison between the different ranges. The slope varied as a function of range from 1.021 for the 13.5cm beam to 0.8407 (average intensity/slice number) for the 21.0cm beam. This dependence can be characterized: −0.0234(average intensity/slice number/cm range). For the SOBP beams, the slopes were significantly less and were also less linear: average slope 0.2628 ± 0.0474, average R{sup 2}=0.9236. Conclusion: The distal activation fall off edge for pristine proton beams was linear and steep. The corresponding quantities for SOBP beams were shallower and less linear. Philips has provided support for this work.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

A procedure for the estimation of the numerical uncertainty of CFD calculations based on grid refinement studies

This paper offers a procedure for the estimation of the numerical uncertainty of any integral or local flow quantity as a result of a fluid flow computation; the procedure requires solutions on systematically refined grids. The error is estimated with power series expansions as a function of the typical cell size. These expansions, of which four types are used, are fitted to the data in the least-squares sense. The selection of the best error estimate is based on the standard deviation of the fits. The error estimate is converted into an uncertainty with a safety factor that depends on the observed order of grid convergence and on the standard deviation of the fit. For well-behaved data sets, i.e. monotonic convergence with the expected observed order of grid convergence and no scatter in the data, the method reduces to the well known Grid Convergence Index. Examples of application of the procedure are included. - Highlights: • Estimation of the numerical uncertainty of any integral or local flow quantity. • Least squares fits to power series expansions to handle noisy data. • Excellent results obtained for manufactured solutions. • Consistent results obtained for practical CFD calculations. • Reduces to the well known Grid Convergence Index for well-behaved data sets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The use of atmospheric prediction models to invert infrasound for linear-equivalent time domain moment tensors: Source Physics Experiment, Phase 1

We invert far field infrasound data for the equivalent seismo-acoustic time domain moment tensor to assess the effects of variable atmospheric models as well as to quantify the relative contributions of two presumed source phenomena. The infrasound data was produced by a series of underground chemical explosions that were conducted during the Source Physics Experiment, (SPE) which was originally designed to study explosion-generated seismo-acoustic signal phenomena. The goal of the work presented herein is two-fold: the first goal is to investigate the sensitivity of the estimated time domain moment tensors to variability of the estimated atmospheric model. The second goal is to determine the relative contribution of two possible source mechanisms to the observed infrasonic wave field. Rather than using actual atmospheric observations to estimate the necessary atmospheric Green's functions, we build a series of atmospheric models that rely on publicly available, regional atmospheric observations and the assumption that the acoustic energy results from a linear combination of an underground isotropic explosion and surface spall. The atmospheric observations are summarized and interpolated onto a 3D grid to produce a model of sound speed at the time of the experiment. For each of four SPE acoustic datasets that we invert, we produced a suite of three atmospheric models, based on ten years of regional meteorological observations: an average model, which averages the atmospheric conditions for ten years prior to each SPE event, as well as two extrema models. We find that the inversion yields relatively repeatable results for the estimated spall source. Conversely, the estimated isotropic explosion source is highly variable. This suggests that the majority of the observed acoustic energy is produced by the spall source and/or our modeling of the elastic energy propagation, and it's subsequent conversion to acoustic energy via linear elastic-to-acoustic coupling at the free surface, is too simplistic.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Bioenergy harvest impacts to biodiversity and resilience vary across aspen‐dominated forest ecosystems in the Lake States region, USA

Abstract Questions Does the increase in disturbance associated with removing harvest residues negatively impact biodiversity and resilience in aspen‐dominated forest ecosystems? How do responses of functional diversity measures relate to community recovery and standing biomass? Location Aspen ( Populus tremuloides, Michx.) mixedwood forests in Minnesota and Michigan, USA. Methods Three levels for two factors, organic matter removal and compaction, were fully crossed, resulting in nine experimental treatments that spanned a range of disturbance severity. Each treatment was replicated three times at each of three sites dominated by the same tree species but having different soil textures (clay, silty loam, sandy). Community composition and taxonomic diversity (species richness, species evenness, Shannon diversity index) were quantified based on woody species abundance sampled 5, 10 and 15 yr after disturbance. Community composition response was assessed using non‐metric multidimensional scaling. Functional diversity (functional richness, evenness, dispersion and divergence) was also estimated using eight species effect and response traits. Finally, we examined community recovery as well as responses of species and functional diversity to disturbance severity over time using repeated measures ANOVA. Results Two responses indicated a potentially negative impact of whole‐tree harvest relative to conventional, stem‐only harvest: functional richness on silty loam soils and species evenness on clayey soils. Otherwise, negative impacts were restricted to forest floor removal or increased compaction. Recovery in community composition was reduced by the most severe treatments, particularly forest floor removal, across the study, but the responses of functional and taxonomic diversity varied among sites, with some measures increasing as a result of severe disturbance. Conclusions Maximization of standing biomass may mean a short‐term sacrifice in species and functional diversity. Also, examinations of forest management impacts on species and functional diversity and composition should apply multiple metrics and indices to ensure potential impacts are not obscured by the reliance on a single approach.

Curzon, Miranda T.↗

Methodologies to determine forces on bones and muscles of body segments during exercise, employing compact sensors suitable for use in crowded space vehicles

Work under this grant was carried out by the author and by a graduate research assistant. An instrumented bicycle ergometer was implemented focusing on the stated objective: to estimate the forces exerted by each muscle of the feet, calf, and thigh of an individual while bicycling. The sensors used were light and compact. These were probes to measure muscle EMG activity, miniature accelerometers, miniature load sensors, and small encoders to measure angular positions of the pedal. A methodology was developed and implemented to completely describe the kinematics of the limbs using data from the sensors. This work has been published as a Master's Thesis by the Graduate student supported by the grant. The instrumented ergometer along with the sensors and instrumentation were tested during a KC-135 Zero-Gravity flight in July, 1994. A complete description of the system and the tests performed have been published as a report submitted to NASA Johnson Space Center. The data collected during the KC-135 flight is currently being processed so that a kinematic description of the bicycling experiment will be soon determined. A methodology to estimate the muscle forces has been formulated based on previous work. The methodology involves the use of optimization concepts so that the individual muscle forces that represent variables in dynamic equations of motion may be estimated. Optimization of a criteria (goal) function such as minimization of energy will be used along with constraint equations defined by rigid body equations of motion. Use of optimization principles is necessary, because the equations of motion alone constitute an indeterminate system of equations with respect to the large amount of muscle forces which constitute the variables in these equations. The number of variables is reduced somewhat by using forces measured by the load cells installed on the pedal. These load cells measure pressure and shear forces on the foot. The author and his collaborators at NASA and at the University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa, are continuing the work of reducing the experimental data from the KC-135 flight, and the implementation of the optimization methods to estimate muscle forces. As soon as results from these efforts are available, they will be published in reputable journals. Results of this work will impact studies addressing bone density loss and development of countermeasures to minimize bone loss in zero gravity conditions. By analyzing muscle forces on Earth and in Space during exercise, scientists could eventually formulate new exercises and machines to help maintain bone density. On Earth, this work will impact studies concerning arthritis, and will provide the means to study possible exercise countermeasures to minimize arthritis problems.

Figueroa, Fernando↗