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New Tables for Infrasound Event Catalogs with a Focus on Machine Learning

Natural and anthropogenic sources such as volcanoes, earthquakes, auroral processes, chemical and nuclear explosions, rocket launches, and aircraft can generate infrasound, sound with frequencies less than 20 Hz. Both the availability of infrasound data and interest in machine learning (ML) applications have grown in recent years. Large, open-source datasets are essential to solving complex ML problems, but the field of infrasound is lacking in this arena. To increase the utility of ML for infrasound, here we present new tables for infrasound event catalogs. It is the aim that these tables be incorporated into both existing and future infrasound processing pipelines to generate large datasets ripe for use with ML/DL methods.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Hybird state of the tail mangetic configuration during steady convection events

Previous observations have shown that during periods of steady magnetospheric convection (SMC) a large amount of magnetic flux crosses the plasma sheet (corresponding to approximately 10 deg wide auroral oval at the nightside) and that the magnetic configuration in the midtail is relaxed (the curent sheet is thick and contains enhanced B(sub Z). These signatures are typical for the substorm recovery phase. Using near-geostationary magnetic field data, magnetic field modeling and a noval diagostic technique (isotropic boundary algorithm), we show that in the near-Earth tail the magnetic confirguration is very stretched during the SMC events. This stretching is caused by an intense, thin westward current. Because of the srongly depressed B(sub Z), there is a large radial gradient in the near-tail magetic field. These signatures have been peviously associated only with the substorm growth phase. Our results indicate that during the SMC periods the magnetic configuration is very peculiar, with co-existing thin near-Earth current sheet and thick midtail plasma sheet. The deep local minimum of the equatorial B(sub Z) that devleops at R approximately 12 R(sub E) is consistent with steady, adiabatic, Earthward convection in the midtail. These results impose contraints on the existing substorm theories, and call for an explanation of how such a stressed configuration can persist for such a long time without tail current disruptions that occur at the end of a substorm growth phase.

Sergeev, V. A.↗

The evolution of a coronal streamer prior to mass ejection

A model describing the quasi-static evolution of a coronal helmet streamer as it is inflated with excess mass was developed. The model produces a sequence of magnetostatic equilibria for a magnetic field configuration that includes a current sheet in the equatorial plane as well as distributed volume currents. The equilibrium solutions are given as Legendre series, and the height at which the current sheet starts is adjusted iteratively to maintain constant flux in the closed-field region. The model was fit to SMM coronagraph/polarimeter observations showing the slow growth of a coronal streamer prior to its disruption in association with an eruptive prominence and mass ejection on August 18, 1980. The results suggest that the early phase of this event is consistent with the quasi-static evolution of the corona in response to the slow addition of mass to the closed-field region of the streamer.

Wolfson, Richard↗

Applications of satellite data relay to problems of field seismology

A seismic signal processor was developed and tested for use with the NOAA-GOES satellite data collection system. Performance tests on recorded, as well as real time, short period signals indicate that the event recognition technique used is nearly perfect in its rejection of cultural signals and that data can be acquired in many swarm situations with the use of solid state buffer memories. Detailed circuit diagrams are provided. The design of a complete field data collection platform is discussed and the employment of data collection platforms in seismic network is reviewed.

Webster, W. J., Jr.↗

CREME96 and Related Error Rate Prediction Methods

Predicting the rate of occurrence of single event effects (SEEs) in space requires knowledge of the radiation environment and the response of electronic devices to that environment. Several analytical models have been developed over the past 36 years to predict SEE rates. The first error rate calculations were performed by Binder, Smith and Holman. Bradford and Pickel and Blandford, in their CRIER (Cosmic-Ray-Induced-Error-Rate) analysis code introduced the basic Rectangular ParallelePiped (RPP) method for error rate calculations. For the radiation environment at the part, both made use of the Cosmic Ray LET (Linear Energy Transfer) spectra calculated by Heinrich for various absorber Depths. A more detailed model for the space radiation environment within spacecraft was developed by Adams and co-workers. This model, together with a reformulation of the RPP method published by Pickel and Blandford, was used to create the CR ME (Cosmic Ray Effects on Micro-Electronics) code. About the same time Shapiro wrote the CRUP (Cosmic Ray Upset Program) based on the RPP method published by Bradford. It was the first code to specifically take into account charge collection from outside the depletion region due to deformation of the electric field caused by the incident cosmic ray. Other early rate prediction methods and codes include the Single Event Figure of Merit, NOVICE, the Space Radiation code and the effective flux method of Binder which is the basis of the SEFA (Scott Effective Flux Approximation) model. By the early 1990s it was becoming clear that CREME and the other early models needed Revision. This revision, CREME96, was completed and released as a WWW-based tool, one of the first of its kind. The revisions in CREME96 included improved environmental models and improved models for calculating single event effects. The need for a revision of CREME also stimulated the development of the CHIME (CRRES/SPACERAD Heavy Ion Model of the Environment) and MACREE (Modeling and Analysis of Cosmic Ray Effects in Electronics). The Single Event Figure of Merit method was also revised to use the solar minimum galactic cosmic ray spectrum and extended to circular orbits down to 200 km at any inclination. More recently a series of commercial codes was developed by TRAD (Test & Radiations) which includes the OMERE code which calculates single event effects. There are other error rate prediction methods which use Monte Carlo techniques. In this chapter the analytic methods for estimating the environment within spacecraft will be discussed.

Adams, James H., Jr.↗

Precise relative magnitude measurement improves fracture characterization during hydraulic fracturing

SUMMARY Microseismic monitoring is an important technique to obtain detailed knowledge of in-situ fracture size and orientation during stimulation to maximize fluid flow throughout the rock volume and optimize production. Furthermore, considering that the frequency of earthquake magnitudes empirically follows a power law (i.e. Gutenberg–Richter), the accuracy of microseismic event magnitude distributions is potentially crucial for seismic risk management. In this study, we analyse microseismicity observed during four hydraulic fracture treatments of the legacy Cotton Valley experiment in 1997 at the Carthage gas field of East Texas, where fractures were activated at the base of the sand-shale Upper Cotton Valley formation. We perform waveform cross-correlation to detect similar event clusters, measure relative amplitude from aligned waveform pairs with a principal component analysis, then measure precise relative magnitudes. The new magnitudes significantly reduce the deviations between magnitude differences and relative amplitudes of event pairs. This subsequently reduces the magnitude differences between clusters located at different depths. Reduction in magnitude differences between clusters suggests that some attenuation-related biases could be effectively mitigated with relative magnitude measurements. The maximum likelihood method is applied to understand the magnitude frequency distributions and quantify the seismogenic index of the clusters. Statistical analyses with new magnitudes suggest that fractures that are more favourably oriented for shear failure have lower b-value and higher seismogenic index, suggesting higher potential for relatively larger earthquakes, rather than fractures subparallel to maximum horizontal principal stress orientation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The radio signatures of a slow coronal mass ejection - Electron acceleration at slow-mode shocks?

The evolution of a coronal mass ejection (CME) event observed on February 17, 1985 is studied using two-dimensional radio imaging observations along with simultaneously obtained coronagraph observations. This event shows that a slow CME can be associated with type II and type IV radio bursts. The implications of the spatial association of the radio bursts with the CME are discussed. It is argued that the CME is due to an instability of the large-scale magnetic field in a helmet streamer and that the radio bursts are some of the responses to this instability. The new feature of this event is the clear association of the moving type IV burst with a CME traveling slower than the coronal Alfven speed. The structure of slow shocks driven by such a CME is discussed, and it is shown that shock drift and diffusive acceleration are ineffective. An acceleration mechanism involving current-driven lower hybrid waves is proposed.

Kundu, M.↗

The dusty ballerina skirt of Jupiter

We suggest a model to explain the unexpected recurrent dust events that were observed during the Jupiter encounter by the dust detector on board the Ulysses spacecraft. This model is based dust-magnetosphere interactions. Dust particles inside the Jovian magnetosphere collect electrostatic charges and their interaction with the magnetic and electric fields can lead to energization and subsequent ejection. We discuss the dusty regions (ring/halo, `gossamer' ring) and also Io as potential sources for the Ulysses events. This model favors Io as a source. The mass and velocity range of the escaping particles are compatible with the observations, and we also suggest internal periodicities to explain the recurrent nature of the Ulysses dust events.

Horanyi, M.↗

Expanding the Field of Climate Finance

Over the past twenty-one years, the Financial Innovations Roundtable (FIR), located at the Carsey School of Public Policy at the University of New Hampshire, has worked to address problems related to access to capital for low- and moderate-income consumers and communities. Since 2014, the event has been co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Board. The FIR works with a range of financial institutions, government agencies, foundations, and trade associations to access their expertise for problem-solving discussions. The 2020 FIR focused on the expanding field of climate finance and was co-hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and The Climate Safe Lending Network. The event was originally slated to be in-person in San Francisco in May 2020 but was postponed due to the pandemic and shifted to an online event hosted November 16‒17, 2020. A significant amount has happened in 2020 on climate finance, racial justice, the economy, and COVID-19. The shocks and stresses of climate change are creating risks in low- and moderate-income communities as well as in the financial sector broadly. The 2020 FIR offered an opportunity to discuss the challenges and opportunities banks and Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFIs) face as they address these risks and how these institutions can help increase individual, institutional, and community-wide resilience. The program explored new and modified products that address climate risk in communities and how those products can be scaled. Conversations focused around: • The progress that has been made in the climate finance field and the challenges that lie ahead for financial institutions’ climate impact and climate-related risk. • Promising opportunities to decarbonize investments and finance low-carbon technology and infrastructure. • How lenders, insurers, housing organizations, and the public sector can work together to reduce housing instability due to climate-related factors and increase the climate-resilience of homes and neighborhoods. • Solutions to help communities address a wide range of related issues, including home weatherization and disaster preparation, home insurance loss, and climate gentrification and displacement. • Discussing lessons learned from other sectors such as renewable energy in order to design both people-based and place-based finance solutions that promote racial and economic inclusion. 1 • The need for all financial institutions to acknowledge that climate risks and racial inequity are systemic risks affecting their bottom line. • The role that bank regulators can play in promoting collaboration across the financial sector and in leading by example with regard to climate finance. • Mapping out concrete action-item initiatives including policy and industry pathways to climate safe lending as well as building a financing platform to provide clean energy to low-income communities. • More broadly, in order to systemically address climate risks, we will need to work together as a range of stakeholders across sectors and collaborate on shared goals and projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Investigating event-shape methods in the search for the chiral magnetic effect in relativistic heavy ion collisions

The chiral magnetic effect (CME) is a phenomenon in which electric charge is separated by a strong magnetic field from local domains of chirality imbalance and parity violation in quantum chromodynamics. The CME-sensitive observable, the charge-dependent three-point azimuthal correlator Δ⁢𝛾 , is contaminated by a major physics background proportional to the particle's elliptic flow anisotropy 𝑣 2 . Event-shape engineering (ESE) binning events in dynamical fluctuations of 𝑣 2 and event-shape selection (ESS) binning events in statistical fluctuations of 𝑣 2 are two methods to search for the CME by projecting Δ⁢𝛾 to the measured anisotropy 𝑣 2 = 0 intercept. Here, we conduct a systematic study of these two methods using physics models as well as toy model simulations. It is observed that the ESE method fulfills the general premise of measuring the CME but is statistically hungry. It is found that the intercept from the ESS method depends on the details of the event content, such as the mixtures of background-contributing sources, because of statistical fluctuations of intertwining variables used in the method, and is thus not practically useful to measure the CME.

Relativistic heavy-ion collisions↗

Microstructures in the Polar Solar Wind: Ulysses

We find that small (10-200 rP) magnetic decreases comprise a dominant part of the polar solar wind microstructure at Ulysses distances (2.2 AU). These magnetic field dips are almost always bounded by tangential discontinuities, a feature which is not well understood at this time. Hundreds of these events have been examined in detail and a variety of types have been found. These will be described. It is speculated that these structures have been generated by perpendicular heating of ions closer to the Sun and have then been convected to distances of Ulysses. Such structures may be very important for the rapid cross- field diffusion of ions in the polar regions of the heliosphere.

Tsuruyani, Bruce T.↗

Target fragmentation in radiobiology

Nuclear reactions in biological systems produce low-energy fragments of the target nuclei seen as local high events of linear energy transfer (LET). A nuclear-reaction formalism is used to evaluate the nuclear-induced fields within biosystems and their effects within several biological models. On the basis of direct ionization interaction, one anticipates high-energy protons to have a quality factor and relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of unity. Target fragmentation contributions raise the effective quality factor of 10 GeV protons to 3.3 in reasonable agreement with RBE values for induced micronuclei in bean sprouts. Application of the Katz model indicates that the relative increase in RBE with decreasing exposure observed in cell survival experiments with 160 MeV protons is related solely to target fragmentation events. Target fragment contributions to lens opacity given an RBE of 1.4 for 2 GeV protons in agreement with the work of Lett and Cox. Predictions are made for the effective RBE for Harderian gland tumors induced by high-energy protons. An exposure model for lifetime cancer risk is derived from NCRP 98 risk tables, and protraction effects are examined for proton and helium ion exposures. The implications of dose rate enhancement effects on space radiation protection are considered.

Wilson, John W.↗

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

Particle Events as a Possible Source of Large Ozone Loss during Magnetic Polarity Transitions

The energy deposition in the mesosphere and stratosphere during large extraterrestrial charged particle precipitation events has been known for some time to contribute to ozone losses due to the formation of potential ozone destroying species like NO(sub x), and HO(sub x). These impacts have been measured and can be reproduced with chemistry models fairly well. In the recent past, however, even the impact of the largest solar proton events on the total amount of ozone has been small compared to the dynamical variability of ozone, and to the anthropogenic induced impacts like the Antarctic 'ozone hole'. This is due to the shielding effect of the magnetic field. However, there is evidence that the earth's magnetic field may approach a reversal. This could lead to a decrease of magnetic field strength to less than 25% of its usual value over a period of several centuries . We show that with realistic estimates of very large solar proton events, scenarios similar to the Antarctic ozone hole of the 1990s may occur during a magnetic polarity transition.

vonKoenig, M.↗

Background studies and normalization of signal events in the Mu2e experiment

The Mu2e experiment is currently being constructed at Fermilab to search for the neutrino-less conversion of negative muons into electrons in the field of an aluminum nucleus. The experiment aims at a sensitivity of four orders of magnitude higher than previous related experiments, which implies highly demanding accuracy requirements both in the design and during the operation. To achieve such a goal, two important tasks should be accomplished. First, it is essential to estimate precisely the particle yields and all the backgrounds that could mimic the monoenergetic conversion electron signal. Second, it is necessary to normalize the signal events accurately. The normalization of the signal events is planned to be done using a detector system made of an HPGe detector and a Lanthanum Bromide detector, which will measure the rate of muons stopped on the aluminum target by looking at the emitted characteristic X-and γ-rays of energies up to 1809 keV. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate the detector system's performance before the start of the actual experiment. In this study, the first task was addressed by an extensive campaign of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the relevant parameters and their impact on the experiment's sensitivity. The second task was handled by taking advantage of the Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) pulsed Bremsstrahlung photon beam at the ELBE facility. The detector system was tested at the ELBE facility under timing and background conditions similar to the ones expected at the Mu2e experiment. The study presents and discusses the simulation results and the detector system testing campaign.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Force Balance at the Magnetopause Determined with MMS: Application to Flux Transfer Events

The Magnetospheric Multiscale mission (MMS) consists of four identical spacecraft forming a closely separated (less than or equal to 10 km) and nearly regular tetrahedron. This configuration enables the decoupling of spatial and temporal variations and allows the calculation of the spatial gradients of plasma and electromagnetic field quantities. We make full use of the well cross-calibrated MMS magnetometers and fast plasma instruments measurements to calculate both the magnetic and plasma forces in flux transfer events (FTEs) and evaluate the relative contributions of different forces to the magnetopause momentum variation. This analysis demonstrates that some but not all FTEs, consistent with previous studies, are indeed force-free structures in which the magnetic pressure force balances the magnetic curvature force. Furthermore, we contrast these events with FTE events that have non-force-free signatures.

MMS↗

Shielding Considerations for CubeSat Structures During Solar Maximum

The purpose of this lessons learned is to communicate the utility of shielding in small spacecraft planning for the support of mission assurance and reliability. Numerous SmallSats have been flying in polar low earth orbit for scientific, communications, technology demonstrations, and imaging with academic, commercial, and government interests. Shielding has been part of mission assurance and reliability from the advent of long duration spacecraft missions. The Shields-1 CubeSat has been operating in polar low earth orbit since 16 December 2018 with atomic number (Z)-grade radiation shielding and demonstrates shielding effectiveness. Shields-1 has collected a representative example of solar minimum data in 2019 with 8 Teledyne dosimeters over varying shielding effectiveness. It serves as current experimental data and has been compared with NOVICE Shielding estimates using the AP8 –AE8 trapped radiation model with the Shields-1 CAD and generic CubeSat 3 unit (U) models. Using NOVICE model radiation analysis coding, the shielding effectiveness's, based on a generic CubeSat 3U structure with 4 electronic boards, were estimated for aluminum wall thicknesses ranging from 0.204 cmto4.44 cm (0.550 g/cm2–12.0 g/cm2) thick aluminum. For modeled polar orbiting spacecraft, solar maximum total ionizing dose (TID)increases by nearly a magnitude for thin-walled aluminum 0.550g/cm2-0.686 g/cm2(0.204 cm –0.254 cm) typical CubeSat structures. The shielding effectiveness by NOVICE Sigma estimates, which is a shielding sphere approximation around a detector, showed a linear relationship with wall thickness, which increased over the wall thickness by a ratio of 1.43 determined by linear regression analysis. Using NOVICE Adjoint Monte-Carlo Modeling of solar minimum and solar maximum with the inclusion of a worst-case solar particle event over a one year mission without geomagnetic shielding, the TID for minimum and maximum conditions for a generic 3U with a wall thickness of 0.254 cm is 158 RAD and 1540 RAD, respectively. The modeled total solar maximum TID is over estimated, because at low orbital latitudes a spacecraft will have shielding from Earth's magnetic field. However, TID will still be significant at high latitudes over the poles, where a spacecraft is exposed in a solar particle event. In contrast, to a thin walled generic 3U CubeSat, Shields-1 electronics enclosure has a shielding effectiveness of 21.3 g/cm2from NOVICE Sigma modeling and is expected to show reduced total ionizing dose increases during the present active Solar Cycle 25 period. Because solar particle events during solar maximum increase TID on electronic parts with thin-walled shielding in short periods of time, it is a mission assurance and reliability consideration on the spacecraft’s mission value versus adding shielding for risk reduction of premature spacecraft or instrument payload loss. Since the volumes of many instruments and system electronics have reduced with small spacecraft, shielding material costs and weight penalties have diminished. A small spacecraft project budget and schedule may limit traditional radiation-hardened part use and radiation testing requirements, where shielding can contribute to mission assurance and reliability with reduced costs.

Shields-1↗

El Nino Drought Increased Canopy Turnover in Amazon Forests

Amazon droughts, including the 2015-2016 El Ni~no, may reduce forest net primary productivityand increase canopy tree mortality, thereby altering both the short- and the longtermnet forest carbon balance. Given the broad extent of drought impacts, inventory plots oreddy flux towers may not capture regional variability in forest response to drought. We used multi-temporal airborne Lidar data and field measurements of coarse woodydebris to estimate patterns of canopy turnover and associated carbon losses in intact and fragmentedforests in the central Brazilian Amazon between 2013-2014 and 2014-2016. Average annualized canopy turnover rates increased by 65% during the drought period inboth intact and fragmented forests. The average size and height of turnover events was similarfor both time intervals, in contrast to expectations that the 2015-2016 El Ni~no droughtwould disproportionally affect large trees. Lidar biomass relationships between canopyturnover and field measurements of coarse woody debris were modest (R2 0.3), given similarcoarse woody debris production and Lidar-derived changes in canopy volume from singletree and multiple branch fall events. Our findings suggest that El Ni~no conditions accelerated canopy turnover in central Amazonforests, increasing coarse woody debris production by 62% to 1.22 Mg C ha1(exp) yr1(exp) indrought years.

ecosystem models↗