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At least 1,513 records · Page 84
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Utility of near‐surface phenology in estimating productivity and evapotranspiration across diverse ecosystems

Abstract Agroecosystems, which include row crops, pasture, and grass and shrub grazing lands, are sensitive to changes in management, weather, and genetics. To better understand how these systems are responding to changes, we need to improve monitoring and modeling carbon and water dynamics. Vegetation Indices (VIs) are commonly used to estimate gross primary productivity (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET), but these empirical relationships are often location and crop specific. There is a need to evaluate if VIs can be effective and, more general, predictors of ecosystem processes through time and across different agroecosystems. Near‐surface photographic (red‐green‐blue) images from PhenoCam can be used to calculate the VI green chromatic coordinate (G CC ) and offer a pathway to improve understanding of field‐scale relationships between VIs and GPP and ET. We synthesized observations spanning 76 site‐years across 15 agroecosystem sites with PhenoCam G CC and GPP or ET estimates from eddy covariance (EC) to quantify interannual variability (IAV) in the relationship between GPP and ET and G CC across. We uncovered a high degree of variability in the strength and slopes of the G CC ∼ GPP and ET relationships (R 2 = 0.1 ‐ 0.9) within and across production systems. Overall, G CC is a better predictor of GPP than ET (R 2 = 0.64 and 0.54, respectively), performing best in croplands (R 2 = 0.91). Shrub‐dominated systems exhibit the lowest predictive power of G CC for GPP and ET but have less IAV in slope. We propose that PhenoCam estimates of G CC could provide an alternative approach for predictions of ecosystem processes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

“Third-body” collision parameters for hydrocarbons, alcohols, and hydroperoxides and an effective internal rotor approach for estimating them

Collision rate constants and third-body collision efficiencies are calculated for more than 300 alkanes, alcohols, and hydroperoxides, for the bath gases He, Ar, H 2 , and N 2 , and from 300 to 2000 K. The data set includes highly branched species and species with as many as 16 nonhydrogen atoms N , and it is analyzed to develop strategies for estimating collision properties more generally. Simple analytic formulas describing the Lennard-Jones collision parameters $σ$ and $ε$ are obtained for each of the three classes of systems as a function of N . Trends in the collision efficiency range parameter $α$ = $\langle$Δ E d $\rangle$ are more complicated, and a method is developed and validated for estimating $α$ based on the numbers and types of internal rotors and oxygen-containing groups. Specifically, the approach maps the expected value of $α$ for a branched alkane, alcohol, or hydroperoxide onto those for the corresponding normal (linear) series via an effective number of nonhydrogen atoms N eff . The prescription for N eff is based on counting internal rotor types and is shown to be insensitive to temperature and fairly insensitive to the identity of the bath gas. Together, these strategies allow for the ready estimation of the collision parameters $σ$, $ε$, and $α$ so long as results for the associated linear series are available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of satellite Leaf Area Index in California vineyards for improving water use estimation

Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) directly quantifies plant water consumption and provides essential information for irrigation scheduling, which is a pressing need for California vineyards as extreme droughts become more frequent. Many ET models take satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) as a major input, but how uncertainties of LAI estimations propagate to ET and the partitioning between evaporation and transpiration is poorly understood. Here we assessed six satellite-based LAI estimation approaches using Landsat and Sentinel-2 images against ground measurements from four vineyards in California and evaluated ET sensitivity to LAI in the thermal-based two-source energy balance (TSEB) model. We found that radiative transfer modeling-based approaches predicted low to medium LAI well, but they significantly underestimated high LAI in highly clumped vine canopies (RMSE ~ 0.97 to 1.27). Cubist regression models trained with ground LAI measurements from all vineyards achieved high accuracy (RMSE ~ 0.3 to 0.48), but these empirical models did not generalize well between sites. Red edge bands and the related vegetation index (VI) from the Sentinel-2 satellite contain complementary information of LAI to VIs based on near-infrared and red bands. TSEB ET was more sensitive to positive LAI biases than negative ones. Positive LAI errors of 50% resulted in up to 50% changes in ET, while negative biases of 50% in LAI caused less than 10% deviations in ET. However, even when ET changes were minimal, negative LAI errors of 50% led to up to a 40% reduction in modeled transpiration, as soil evaporation and plant transpiration responded to LAI change divergently. These findings call for careful consideration of satellite LAI uncertainties for ET modeling, especially for the partitioning of water loss between vine and soil or cover crop for effective vineyard irrigation management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Laser-Induced Plasma as a Method for the Metallic Materials Hardness Estimation: An Alternative Approach

The application of an alternative laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) method based on transversely excited atmospheric (TEA) CO2 laser was investigated for the first time for estimating the hardness of metallic materials. The human eye-safe (TEA) CO2 laser, operating at 10.6 µm, was used for plasma generation. The LIBS spectra were recorded by employing a cost-effective CCD camera for the time-integrated and spatial resolved measurements. The cast iron and aluminum alloys samples with different hardness have been tested. The ratio between the magnesium ionic and neutral lines in LIBS spectra was applied for estimating the material hardness. In addition, the hardness of all samples included in this study was determined using the conventional method for material hardness determination, i.e. Vickers hardness test. The linear dependence of magnesium lines intensity ratio on the sample’s hardness was obtained for both kinds of materials. Profilometric measurements were used to verify that the newly-introduced method is almost nondestructive for the investigated metals. The results obtained in the present work confirmed the potential of using this original LIBS system not only for the fast elemental analysis but also for the direct estimation of the hardness of metals and alloys. © 2020, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of soil classes and their relationship to grapevine vigor in a Bordeaux vineyard: advancing the practical joint use of electromagnetic induction (EMI) and NDVI datasets for precision viticulture

Working within a vineyard in the Pessac Léognan Appellation of Bordeaux, France, this study documents the potential of using simple statistical methods with spatially-resolved and increasingly available electromagnetic induction (EMI) geophysical and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) datasets to accurately estimate Bordeaux vineyard soil classes and to quantitatively explore the relationship between vineyard soil types and grapevine vigor. First, co-located electrical tomographic tomography (ERT) and EMI datasets were compared to gain confidence about how the EMI method averaged soil properties over the grapevine rooting depth. Then, EMI data were used with core soil texture and soil-pit based interpretations of Bordeaux soil types (Brunisol, Redoxisol, Colluviosol and Calcosol) to estimate the spatial distribution of geophysically-identified Bordeaux soil classes. A strong relationship (r = 0.75, p < 0.01) was revealed between the geophysically-identified Bordeaux soil classes and NDVI (both 2 m resolution), showing that the highest grapevine vigor was associated with the Bordeaux soil classes having the largest clay fraction. The results suggest that within-block variability of grapevine vigor was largely controlled by variability in soil classes, and that carefully collected EMI and NDVI datasets can be exceedingly helpful for providing quantitative estimates of vineyard soil and vigor variability, as well as their covariation. The method is expected to be transferable to other viticultural regions, providing an approach to use easy-to-acquire, high resolution datasets to guide viticultural practices, including routine management and replanting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recalibrating Best Practices, Challenges, and Limitations of Estimating Tree Transpiration Via Sap Flow

Purpose: Transpiration dominates hydrologic fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere. Sap flow is the most widely used method to quantify transpiration, and calibrations can improve the accuracy of these estimates. Despite numerous suggestions to perform and apply sap flow calibrations, seemingly few reports apply these recommendations. Here, we sought to determine the prevalence of calibration across sap flow methodology. Recent Findings: In this work, we reviewed tree sap flow literature over the past nine years and determined that only 5.3% of these publications documented the performance of calibrations, the application of coefficients from previous calibrations, or the application of correction factors using calibration data to ensure or improve accuracy of transpiration estimates. These data indicate that calibration has not been adopted as a best practice. However, these data may also reflect challenges to the performance and application of calibration indicating fundamental limitations of sap flow methods. Summary: We highlight the need for testing critical assumptions regarding calibration; specifically, that coefficients derived from calibrations on small stems are suitable for application to large stems and that different calibration approaches yield similar transpiration estimates. We encourage researchers to adopt calibration as a best practice for sap flow data and to explain how calibration was performed, how calibration data were applied, and to acknowledge and justify circumstances that preclude or do not necessitate calibration. Without the adoption of calibration and an improved understanding of its limitations, our understanding of transpiration and ability to quantify it using this technology will remain inadequate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantum circuit fidelity estimation using machine learning

The computational power of real-world quantum computers is limited by errors. When using quantum computers to perform algorithms which cannot be efficiently simulated classically, it is important to quantify the accuracy with which the computation has been performed. In this work, we introduce a machine learning-based technique to estimate the fidelity between the state produced by a noisy quantum circuit and the target state corresponding to ideal noise-free computation. Our machine learning model is trained in a supervised manner, using smaller or simpler circuits for which the fidelity can be estimated using other techniques like direct fidelity estimation and quantum state tomography. Here we demonstrate that, for simulated random quantum circuits with a realistic noise model, the trained model can predict the fidelities of more complicated circuits for which such methods are infeasible. In particular, we show that the trained model may make predictions for circuits with higher degrees of entanglement than were available in the training set and that the model may make predictions for non-Clifford circuits even when the training set included only Clifford-reducible circuits. This empirical demonstration suggests classical machine learning may be useful for making predictions about beyond-classical quantum circuits for some non-trivial problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity in a watershed using sparse multi-source data via Gaussian process regression and Bayesian experimental design

Enhanced water management systems depend on accurate estimation of subsurface hydraulic properties. However, geologic formations can vary significantly, so information from a single source (e.g., widely spaced boreholes) is insufficient in characterizing subsurface aquifer properties. Therefore, multiple sources of information are needed to complement the hydrogeology understanding of a region. Here, this study presents a numerical framework in which information from different measurement sources is combined to characterize the 3D random field in a multi-fidelity prediction model. Coupled with the model, a Bayesian experimental design was used to determine the best future sampling locations. The Upper Sangamon watershed in east-central Illinois was selected as the case study site, where the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in the region of interest. Multi-source observation data were obtained from electrical resistivity and borehole pumping tests. The accuracy of the model prediction is dependent on the locations and the distribution of both high- and low-fidelity data. Furthermore, the multi-fidelity model was compared with the single-fidelity model. The uncertainties and confidence in the measurements and parameter estimates were quantified and used to design future cycles of data collection to further improve the confidence intervals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-informed graphical neural network for power system state estimation

State estimation is highly critical for accurately observing the dynamic behavior of the power grids and minimizing risks from cyber threats. However, existing state estimation methods encounter challenges in accurately capturing power system dynamics, primarily because of limitations in encoding the grid topology and sparse measurements. Here, this paper proposes a physics-informed graphical learning state estimation method to address these limitations by leveraging both domain physical knowledge and a graph neural network (GNN). We employ a GNN architecture that can handle the graph-structured data of power systems more effectively than traditional data-driven methods. The physics-based knowledge is constructed from the branch current formulation, making the approach adaptable to both transmission and distribution systems. The validation results of three IEEE test systems show that the proposed method can achieve lower mean square error more than 20% than the conventional methods.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vapor–liquid equilibrium estimation of n-alkane/nitrogen mixtures using neural networks

Understanding fluid phase behavior, like VLE, in high P&T conditions is crucial for developing high-fidelity simulations of chemically reacting flows in liquid-fueled combustion systems and also forms an integral part of the design-modeling of the control processes in chemical industries. Two data-driven models have been proposed here in this study, each of which was competent in estimating VLE for the Type III binary systems of C 10 /N 2 and C 12 /N 2 , at pressures ranging up to 50–60 MPa. Both models showed better performance in predicting equilibrium pressure as compared to VLE modeled using PR-EOS. A modified model has also been proposed, capable of estimating the full phase envelope for the binary systems of C 10 /N 2 and C 12 /N 2 across a wide range of temperatures, and thus exhibit the mixture critical pressure at the concerned temperature. The diverse applicability of the proposed network architecture was further exhibited while estimating the VLE of a ternary system of C 1 /C 10 /N 2 .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hurricane wind field representation shapes storm surge and building-scale flood hazard estimates

Coastal flood hazard estimates rely on precise hurricane wind forecasts to assess damage and risk. Here, we demonstrate that errors in hurricane wind field representation can lead to significant biases in storm surge and property-level damage estimates. Using Hurricane Ian (2022) as a case study, we compare widely used parametric, reanalysis, and hybrid wind datasets. Improved wind field accuracy reduces storm surge and damage estimate bias by up to 70\%. Our results underscore the importance of accurately predicting hurricane wind structure in hazard assessments.

Coastal Flooding↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2023

Residual estimation for grid modification in wall-modeled large eddy simulation using unstructured high-order methods

Here, the accuracy and computational cost of a large eddy simulation are highly dependent on the computational grid. Building optimal grids manually from a priori knowledge is not feasible in most practical use cases; instead, solution-adaptive strategies can provide a robust and cost-efficient method to generate a grid with the desired accuracy. We adapt the residual estimation algorithm developed by Toosi and Larsson for Discontinuous Galerkin Spectral Elements Methods (DGSEM) to guide the grid-adaptation process. The core of the method is the computation of the estimated modeling residual using the polynomial basis functions used in DGSEM, and the averaging of the estimated residual over each element. The final method is assessed in multiple channel flow test cases and for the transonic flow over an airfoil, in both cases making use of mortar interfaces between elements with hanging nodes. The method is found to be robust and reliable, and to provide solutions on grids with significantly fewer elements at comparable accuracy compared to when using human-generated grids.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

How reliable is distribution of relaxation times (DRT) analysis? A dual regression-classification perspective on DRT estimation, interpretation, and accuracy

The distribution of relaxation times (DRT) has gained increasing attention and adoption in recent years as a versatile method for analyzing electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data obtained from complex devices like fuel cells, electrolyzers, and batteries. The DRT deconvolutes the impedance without a priori specification of a generative model, which is especially useful for interpretation and model selection when the governing principles of the system under study are not fully understood. However, DRT estimation is an ill-posed inversion problem that must be addressed with a subjective choice of regularization and tuning, which leaves substantial risk of misleading interpretations of EIS data. In this work, we suggest a new classification view of the DRT inversion to clarify DRT estimation and interpretation. We introduce a dual regression-classification framework that unifies the classification and regression views of the DRT inversion with wide-reaching implications for DRT analysis. The dual framework is employed to demonstrate a new kind of DRT inversion algorithm and develop novel evaluation metrics that capture previously ignored aspects of DRT accuracy. These approaches are applied to both synthetic data and experimental spectra collected from a protonic ceramic fuel cell and a lithium-ion battery to illustrate their broad utility. The dual inversion algorithm shows promising performance for accurate DRT estimation and autonomous model identification, while the dual evaluation approach produces metrics that meaningfully assess the strengths and risks of DRT algorithms. Here this work provides valuable insight for both practical application of the DRT to experimental data and further development of EIS analysis methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using an ontology-based framework

This study presents a methodology for automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using semantic modeling and Bayesian estimation. Semantic modeling techniques are used to represent the system components and their interactions, facilitating the automatic generation of a simulation model from dynamic component models. The proposed approach is applied to a case study of a ventilation system where a simulation model is generated, calibrated, and assessed through different performance metrics. These metrics demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of both model point estimates and probabilistic prediction intervals across all model outputs. Overall, the proposed methodology offers a systematic and automated approach to model development and calibration in building energy systems, with potential applications in building performance analysis, monitoring, and optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Validation of the strike point position estimation with the local expansion method for MAST upgrade on the DIII-D tokamak

A local expansion method has been proposed for estimating the strike point position for the advanced divertor configuration on the MAST Upgrade tokamak. The paper discusses the application and assesses the performance of the technique on a long-legged divertor plasma configuration on an operating device - the DIII-D tokamak. A comparison of the spatial location of the outer strike point estimated with the local expansion method against the plasma boundary reconstruction and divertor diagnostics on the DIII-D tokamak is reported. A good agreement with the equilibrium reconstruction and diagnostic data is achieved with respect to estimation of the spatial location of the outer strike point for the long-legged divertor plasma discharge.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation for Battery Electric Buses Energy Consumption Forecasting

The limited service life of onboard batteries for EVs is a challenge, underscoring the need for real-time battery usage prediction. This paper proposes an adaptive Algebraic Derivative Estimation (ADE) approach for forecasting the energy consumption of battery electric buses. By dynamically adjusting the sliding window length, the adaptive ADE retains the fixed-length ADE’s key advantage—namely, operating online without reliance on extensive historical datasets—while substantially bolstering forecast accuracy by actively trading estimation bias off estimation variance. Comparative experiments against both the conventional ADE with a fixed length and a representative machine learning algorithm, XGBoost, were conducted, with performance evaluated via root mean square error, mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly outperforms baseline methods.

Cui, Tianyang [The University of Texas at Dallas]↗