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DOE OSTI2020

Accuracy of HVAC Load Predictions: Validation of EnergyPlus and DOE-2 using FLEXLAB Measurements

The aim of the project reported here was to better understand the level of accuracy of three building energy simulation (BES) engines (‘engines’) — EnergyPlus™, DOE-2.1e, and DOE-2.2 — by identifying and investigating significant deviations between the performance predicted by these engines and actual performance as measured in the FLEXLAB® test facility at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The specific test conditions included some of those prescribed in ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140 - Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Programs. Detailed measurements of FLEXLAB performance, including indoor temperatures and heat fluxes and air-flow and water flow rates and temperatures in the Heating, Ventilating and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system, together with hourly weather data, were recorded and used in analyzing the simulation results from EnergyPlus v8.8, DOE-2.2 v3.65 and DOE-2.1e v127. These engines are commonly used in the United States for building energy code compliance, federal, state, and utility incentives programs, as well as energy efficient design of new buildings and energy retrofit of existing buildings. Seven conventional overhead mixing ventilation scenarios were tested and each engine was found to have a similar level of agreement with the measurements of space-level heating and sensible cooling loads. These results provide useful information regarding the accuracy of these engines in predicting the cooling and heating load elements of whole building energy performance. This information is intended for practitioners who are concerned about transitioning between simulation tools with different engines and for managers of utility programs leveraging these tools for evaluating and/or projecting measure savings to be incentivized under their programs. The results of the comparisons of simulated and measured performance indicate that the predictions from all three engines are not significantly different. The 24-hour average value of the absolute mean bias indicates the likely magnitude of the error in any particular case. The average mean bias is reduced by cancelation of overprediction in one case by underprediction in another. The daytime absolute mean biases, which may be more important for both energy performance and occupant comfort, are ~6%, presumably because of the greater complexity involved in simulating in the presence of solar radiation. EnergyPlus typically overpredicts the cooling load and/or underpredicts the heating load by ~1.5% and the DOE-2 engines typically underpredict the cooling load by approximately the same amount. The Root Mean Square Error is relatively more sensitive to shorter term variations in the difference between predicted and measured loads; the three engines have similar values, ~10%, suggesting that the uncertainties in their predictions of peak loads may also be similar in magnitude. The implication of these results is that users, both designers and program analysts, can use EnergyPlus, DOE-2.1e, or DOE-2.2 to model conventional commercial buildings equipped with overhead mixing ventilation with a similar level of confidence. Further work is required to better understand the variability in the level of agreement between the engine predictions and FLEXLAB measurements, where a particular engine will agree well with FLEXLAB in some cases and not so well in others and another engine will agree or disagree in different cases. As the sources of this variability are identified and eliminated or reduced significantly, it is recommended that the experimental capabilities and methods developed in the study reported here should be applied to validating heating and cooling load calculations for spaces with different types of furniture and miscellaneous loads. These methods should then be applied to low energy space conditioning systems in EnergyPlus including, in particular, radiant slab and radiant ceiling panel cooling and heating systems and ‘mixed mode’ systems that combine mechanical cooling and natural ventilation systems, focusing on controls, including control of thermal mass. The work reported here addresses the conventional method of heating and cooling occupied spaces; other methods, such as the use of radiant heating and cooling systems have the potential to provide equivalent occupant comfort, or better, with lower energy consumption. These systems are addressed more explicitly in EnergyPlus but there is a need for empirical validation to give users the same level of confidence in modeling these systems that they have, or should have, in modeling conventional systems, based on the results presented here.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving High Resolution Offshore Wind Resource Assessments and Forecasts using Observations in the MA/RI Lease Areas

The third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3) sought to improve understanding of the physical phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean that dictate the structure and variability of wind and thermodynamic fields within the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL). WFIP3 conducted a comprehensive 18-month observational study over the Northeast U.S. outer continental shelf, a high use coastal zone, using a 3-D multiscale sensor array to highly resolve the temporal, vertical, and horizontal structure of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. Multiple land-based study sites adjacent to the coastal ocean observed surface meteorology and vertical profiles of atmospheric properties via passive infrared and microwave radiometers, active lidars and radars, and radiosondes. At sea, an array of surface flux buoys and two vertical profiling lidar buoys observed both atmospheric and oceanic properties, augmented by land-based oceanographic radar systems and routine ship-based surveys. Intensive observations of the MABL over the ocean was done from an air-sea interaction flux tower and extended deployments of a large barge platform. WFIP3 focused on mesoscale and sub-mesoscale flows -- including sea breezes, low-level jets, low-level clouds, and coastal storms -- and the ability of advanced numerical model parameterizations to represent them within fully coupled oceanic and atmospheric modeling systems and foundational weather forecast models. Numerous critical forecasting phenomena were observed, however the project was terminated prior to the completion of the field observational period and the analysis period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Closed Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Assessment of the United States

The data includes a geospatial and spreadsheet representation of a resource analysis for closed loop pumped storage systems across the Continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. The data includes energy storage potential, water volume, distance from source to storage, hydraulic head, dollars per kilowatt of storage, and transmission spurline cost for each pumped storage hydropower (PHS) reservoir. Each reservoir represented in this dataset is represented on potential 10 hour storage duration PSH system comprised of two reservoirs. Units of measure are laid out in the dataset. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) represents the bulk of the United States' current energy storage capacity: 23 gigawatts (GW) of the 24 GW national total (Denholm et al. 2021). This capacity was largely built between 1960 and 1990. PSH is a mature and proven method of energy storage with competitive round-trip efficiency and long life spans. These qualities make PSH a very attractive potential solution to energy storage needs, particularly for longer-duration storage (8 hours or more); such storage will be crucial to bridge gaps in electricity production as variable wind and solar production continue to comprise an ever-larger portion of the United States' energy portfolio. This study seeks to better understand the technical potential for PSH development in the United States by developing a national-scale resource assessment for closed-loop PSH. For more information, please refer to the Closed Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Assessment for the United States linked in the resources.

Array↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Contaminant Migration within a Dynamic River Corridor through Field Experiments and Reactive Transport Modeling

The behavior of a persistent uranium plume within an extended river corridor at the DOE Hanford site is dominantly controlled by river stage fluctuations in the adjacent Columbia River. The plume behavior is further complicated by substantial heterogeneity in physical and geochemical properties of the host aquifer sediments. Multi-scale field and laboratory experiments and reactive transport modeling were integrated to understand the complex plume behavior influenced by highly variable hydrologic and geochemical conditions in time and space. In this paper, we (1) describe multiple data sets from field-scale uranium adsorption and desorption experiments performed at our experimental well-field, (2) develop a reactive transport model that incorporates hydrologic and geochemical heterogeneities characterized from multi-scale and multi-type datasets and a surface complexation reaction network based on laboratory studies, and (3) compare the modeling and observation results to provide insights on how to refine the conceptual model and reduce prediction uncertainties. The experimental results revealed significant spatial variability in uranium adsorption/desorption behavior, while modeling demonstrated that ambient hydrologic and geochemical conditions and heterogeneities in sediment physical and chemical properties both contributed to complex plume behavior and its persistence. This research underscores the great challenges in adequately characterizing this type of site to model the reactive transport processes over scales of 10 m or more. Our analysis provides important insights into the characterization, understanding, modeling, and remediation of groundwater contaminant plumes influenced by dynamic surface water and groundwater interactions.

Chen, Xingyuan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal interpolation of global dissolved oxygen: 1965–2015

Oxygen inventory of the global ocean has declined in recent decades potentially due to the warming-induced reduction in solubility as well as the circulation and biogeochemical changes associated with ocean warming and increasing stratification. Earth System Models predict continued oxygen decline for this century with profound impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries. Observational constraint on the rate of oxygen loss is crucial for assessing the ability of models to accurately simulate these changes. There are only a few observational assessments of the global oceanic oxygen inventory reporting a range of oxygen loss. This study develops a gridded data set of dissolved oxygen for the global oceans using optimal interpolation method. The resulting gridded product includes full-depth map of dissolved oxygen as 5-year moving average from 1965 to 2015 with uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty can come from unresolved small-scale and high-frequency variability and mapping errors. The multi-decadal trend of global dissolved oxygen is in the range of -281 to -373 Tmol/decade. This estimate is more conservative than previous works. In this study, the grid points far from the observations are essentially set equal to zero anomaly from the climatology. Calculating global inventory with this approach produces a relatively conservative estimate; thus, the results from this study likely provide a useful lower bound estimate of the global oxygen loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pursuing Heteroleptic Ligand Design Principles for Photoactive Fe Complexes with Ultrafast X-ray Emission and Variable-Temperature Optical Spectroscopies

Understanding the key parameters that govern the photophysical and photochemical properties of transition metal complexes is essential for the development of efficient photosensitizers for photocatalytic applications. Achieving this objective necessitates clear and detailed investigations of their electronic excited states, for which time-resolved metal Kβ X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) has proven highly effective. Here, we present a time-resolved Fe Kβ XES study of a heteroleptic Fe(II) polypyridyl carbene complex, [Fe(phen) 2 (C 4 H 10 N 4 )] 2+ (1; phen = 1,10-phenanthroline), utilizing both the valence-to-core and Kβ mainline spectral regions, complemented by variable-temperature transient optical absorption (VT-TA) spectroscopy. Detailed analysis of the time-resolved Kβ XES data, supported by density functional theory (DFT) calculations and an Eyring analysis of the VT-TA data, reveals parallel excited state relaxation dynamics that support an assignment of the long-lived excited state to a triplet metal-centered state. Placing these results in the context of prior studies of heteroleptic Fe(II) polypyridyl cyanide complexes motivated a series of DFT calculations to investigate the effects of ligand structural flexibility and arrangement. These calculations reinforce the experimentally derived conclusion that constraining structural flexibility with multidentate ligands significantly impacts the excited state relaxation dynamics. Furthermore, our study emphasizes that the arrangement of strong field ligands in heteroleptic complexes substantially affects the energy of Jahn–Teller active triplet metal-centered states in low-spin d 6 metal complexes. Together, these findings provide synthetic design principles for extending metal-to-ligand charge transfer excited state lifetimes of heteroleptic Fe complexes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Classification Analysis of Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes Prior to Landfall

This study evaluates the ability of a random forest classifier to identify tropical cyclone (TC) intensification or weakening prior to landfall over the western region of the Southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO) basin. For both Australia mainland and SWPO island cases, when a TC first crosses land after spending ≥24 h over the ocean, the closest hour prior to the intersection is considered as the landfall hour. If the maximum wind speed (V max ) at the landfall hour increased or remained the same from the 24-h mark prior to landfall, the TC is labeled as intensifying and if the V max at the landfall hour decreases, the TC is labeled as weakening. Geophysical and aerosol variables closest to the 24 h before landfall hour were collected for each sample. The random forest model with leave-one-out cross validation and the random oversampling example technique was identified as the best-performing classifier for both mainland and island cases. The model identified longitude, initial intensity, and sea skin temperature as the most important variables for the mainland and island landfall classification decisions. Incorrectly classified cases from the test data were analyzed by sorting the cases by their initial intensity hour, landfall hour, monthly distribution, and 24-h intensity changes. TC intensity changes near land strongly impact coastal preparations such as wind damage and flood damage mitigations; hence, this study will contribute to improve identifying and prioritizing prediction of important variables contributing to TC intensity change before landfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Temperature-dependent dynamic fouling on superhydrophobic and slippery nonwetting copper surfaces

Bioinspired, superhydrophobic and slippery liquid infused surfaces that offer nonwetting characteristics have been explored in recent years for fouling mitigation. However, most of the studies are in the context of biofouling or under static immersion at ambient temperature conditions that are not reflective of the dynamic flow environment in practice. This article presents, for the first time, a systematic study of dynamic fouling of superhydrophobic (SHS) and slippery lubricant-infused surfaces (LIS) over a range of flow and temperature conditions. In this work, copper metallic surfaces were textured via electrodeposition or etching and further functionalized to achieve SHS and, additionally, infiltrated with a lubricant to fabricate LIS. The nonwetting surfaces were studied for their fouling behavior in a rotating Couette flow of a supersaturated calcium sulfate solution at different rotational speed and temperature. Fouling mineral mass accumulation on the different surfaces was measured as a function of time over a period of days using inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy and the fouled surfaces were investigated using scanning electron microscopy. Both SHS and LIS showed superior anti-scaling performance at all ranges of variables. An analytical Hill-Langmuir model is presented, for the first time, to describe the time evolution of scaling within 20% accuracy over the range of parameters studied. The study is the first to juxtapose two surface texturing methods, electrodeposition and etching, and two nonwetting surface types, SHS and LIS, subject to a common suite of experiments to elucidate fundamental understanding of mineral fouling on nonwetting surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Characterization of Salt Aerosols Generated from Static and Sparged Molten Salt

The formation of radionuclide-bearing aerosols in the respirable size range has the potential to significantly influence offsite dose consequences and is, therefore, an important consideration in nuclear facility safety assessments. Molten salt reactor (MSR) developers will likely need to demonstrate an understanding of the conditions under which radionuclide-bearing aerosols may be generated from their reactor under normal operating and accident conditions, as well as the characteristics and transport behavior of these aerosols, to demonstrate to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) that the facility can be operated safely. Recent reviews of the literature identified a lack of experimental data describing the mechanisms of formation and properties (size, concentration, and composition) of salt aerosol particles that are produced from molten salts. Experiments that identify the conditions that lead to radionuclide-bearing salt aerosol releases and quantify the characteristics of salt aerosols formed by different mechanisms are high-priority needs to support MSR licensing. This report describes tests that were conducted within the Argonne Salt Aerosol Test Stand (a sealed vessel and measurement system) to generate salt aerosols from static and sparged molten salts and measure their size and concentration in real-time. The results provide insight into salt aerosol formation by the vapor condensation and bubble bursting mechanisms and inform the potential radiological consequences of aerosol formation from molten fuel salt. Videos of the salt surface were taken during salt sparge tests to observe surface bubble behavior. The data in this report can be used to develop mechanistic source term and accident progression models for MSRs. The real-time salt aerosol characterization technique used in this study will be employed in future integral effects tests that are conducted at an engineering scale to simulate realistic MSR accidents and in future separate effects tests to address additional variables that may impact salt aerosol characteristics (e.g., presence of fission products in salt and humidity in atmosphere).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance Evaluation of AG-1 FC HEPA Filters and Medium in Nuclear Complex Facilities - 20434

High Efficiency Particulate Air (HEPA) filters are credited as the final barrier against the release of radioactive aerosol contamination in nearly every operating U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) and National Nuclear Security Agency (NNSA) nuclear facility. The Institute for Clean Energy Technology (ICET) at Mississippi State University maintains a research program that studies various aspects of these components of containment systems and seeks to answer key questions from across the industry. This programmatic overview will include results from recent and ongoing studies, including a study on filter design and performance envelope, degradation due to aging or fatigue, fire event impact on HEPA filters, and accelerated aging of medium and component parts. ICET has completed a study helping to define the threshold for combined elevated temperature and relative humidity resistance of separator style and separator-less style HEPA filters that are used in DOE complexes. The study provides experimental data that considers elevated temperature, elevated relative humidity (RH), and target differential pressure (dP) in an attempt to gain a better understanding or more comprehensive insight into the operating envelope of different configurations of ASME (American Society for Mechanical Engineers) AG-1 Section FC filters. Test variables including air temperature ranges of 48.88 deg. C, 54.44 deg. C, or 60 deg. C (120, 130, or 140 deg. F); air RH ranges including 60-70%, 80%, or 90+% with initial filter dP of either 497.68 Pa, 746.52 Pa, or 995.36 Pa (2 inches water column (in. w. c.), 3 in. w. c., or 4 in. w. c.) included for full bracketing of each set of conditions. A study examining the effects of aging and fatigue on nuclear grade HEPA filters and medium elucidates the physical properties of media along with testing of new and aged ASME AG-1 HEPA filters. In addition to performing autopsies of the tested, aged filters to help better understand the service life of their performance, newly designed accelerated aging chambers allow new medium to undergo accelerated aging and exposure treatments. Evaluation of degradation in physical properties and functionality requires a high population of aged filters of different ages, designs, manufacturers, and operational histories. The limited availability of this population and the impropriety of looking solely at formulations and components from past years requires experimental design that will provide foresight into future filter performance. This undertaking therefore involves not only properties analysis of aged medium from different operational histories, ages, designs, and manufacturers, but also prescience in analytical goals via accelerated aging studies of newly manufactured media. A more complete understanding of the mechanisms of degradation from past formulations as well as current and future formulations is possible. Accelerated Aging of newly manufactured media utilizes exposure treatments based on the Arrhenius equation to artificially age medium and therefore glimpse into the future. Evaluation of current media properties This testing allows for the comparison of performance and durability of new filters under upset or design basis conditions with aged filters that were in service under ambient conditions and other aged filters retained in storage. Susceptibility of HEPA filters to the effects of combustion byproducts, heat, and water is also being studied in an attempt to gain understanding on the prevention of filter failures during fire events in nuclear facilities. ICET seeks to determine the effect of filter performance due to smoke loading using characterized smoke from variable fuel compositions, geometries, and loads; the smoke capacity of various filters with different burning conditions, heat release rates and transport, as well as mass transport from the air stream will be studied in low flow containment systems. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Multisite EGFR phosphorylation is regulated by adaptor protein abundances and dimer lifetimes

Differential epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) phosphorylation is thought to couple receptor activation to distinct signaling pathways. However, the molecular mechanisms responsible for biased signaling are unresolved due to a lack of insight into the phosphorylation patterns of full-length EGFR. We extended a single-molecule pull-down technique previously used to study protein–protein interactions to allow for robust measurement of receptor phosphorylation. We found that EGFR is predominantly phosphorylated at multiple sites, yet phosphorylation at specific tyrosines is variable and only a subset of receptors share phosphorylation at the same site, even with saturating ligand concentrations. We found distinct populations of receptors as soon as 1 min after ligand stimulation, indicating early diversification of function. To understand this heterogeneity, we developed a mathematical model. The model predicted that variations in phosphorylation are dependent on the abundances of signaling partners, while phosphorylation levels are dependent on dimer lifetimes. The predictions were confirmed in studies of cell lines with different expression levels of signaling partners, and in experiments comparing low- and high-affinity ligands and oncogenic EGFR mutants. These results reveal how ligand-regulated receptor dimerization dynamics and adaptor protein concentrations play critical roles in EGFR signaling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Self‐Healable Poly(ionic liquid) Copolymers Driven by Polar and Dipolar Forces

Abstract Commodity aliphatic and aromatic acrylic‐based copolymers self‐heal due to ubiquitouskey‐and‐lock,ring‐and‐lock, andfluorophilic‐σ‐lockvan der Waals (vdW) interactions. However, the role of these interactions in the presence of covalently copolymerized ionic liquid (IL) is not known. This study is driven by the hypothesis that covalently incorporated cation–anion pairs to form poly(ionic liquid) copolymers (PILCs) can perturb inter‐ or intra‐chain vdW interactions reflected in mechanical and electrical responses. To test this hypothesis, we synthesized a series of PILCs comprising of pentafluorostyrene (PFS) and imidazolium‐based IL monomers with variable‐length aliphatic tails (methyl and butyl). Using a combination of 2D 1 H‐ 1 H and 19 F ‐ 19 F NOESY NMR and FTIR measurements supplemented by molecular dynamic (MD) simulations, these studies demonstrate that preferentially alternating/random PILCs topologies facilitate self‐healing. The introduction of cation–anion moieties modifies thefluorophilic‐σ‐lockinteractions and, along with longer aliphatic tails ─(CH 2 ) 3 CH 3 covalently attached to the imidazolium cation, enhances cation‐anion mobility, thus faster recovery from mechanical damage occurs. These findings underline how precise control over dipolar and ionic interactions through copolymer composition enables self‐healing in PILCs. These insights may open pathways for designing sustainable, mechanically resilient materials for applications in energy storage and energy harvesting.

Chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Model Intercomparison Study of Aerosol‐Cloud‐Turbulence Interactions in a Cloud Chamber: 1. Model Results

This study presents the first model intercomparison of aerosol‐cloud‐turbulence interactions in a controlled cloudy Rayleigh‐Bénard Convection chamber environment, utilizing the Pi Chamber at Michigan Technological University. We analyzed simulated cloud chamber‐averaged statistics of microphysics and thermodynamics in a warm‐phase, cloudy environment under steady‐state conditions at varying aerosol injection rates. Simulation results from seven distinct models (DNS, LES, and a 1D turbulence model) were compared. Our findings demonstrate that while all models qualitatively capture observed trends in droplet number concentration, mean radius, and droplet size distributions at both high and low aerosol injection rates, significant quantitative differences were observed. Notably, droplet number concentrations varied by over two orders of magnitude between models for the same injection rates, indicating sensitivities to the model treatments in droplet activation and removal and wall fluxes. Furthermore, inconsistencies in vertical relative humidity profiles and in achieving steady‐state liquid water content suggest the need for further investigation into the mechanisms driving these variations. Despite these discrepancies, the models generally reproduced consistent power‐law relationships between the microphysical variables. This model intercomparison underscores the importance of controlled cloud chamber experiments for validating and improving cloud microphysical parameterizations. Recommendations for future modeling studies are also highlighted, including constraining wall conditions and processes, investigating droplet/aerosol removal (including sidewall losses), and conducting simplified experiments to isolate specific processes contributing to model divergence and reduce model uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Case Study: Low-Temperature Conversion Performance Based on Isolated Anatomical Fractions of Corn Stover

This report summarizes analysis conducted to support a case study under the Feedstock Conversion Interface Consortium (FCIC) focused on techno-economic analysis (TEA) modeling to quantify the process yield and resulting process cost impacts for processing isolated anatomical fractions of corn stover through a low-temperature conversion (biochemical) pathway. It is hypothesized that different individual anatomical fractions of corn stover vary in both composition and recalcitrance, giving biorefineries options in whether and how to deal with fractionated or whole biomass feedstock. By quantifying the techno-economic impacts of this variability, we provide actionable information for end users to understand tradeoffs in conversion system yields and economics in considering feedstock processing decisions at the biorefinery gate. For this study, we worked with FCIC researchers to obtain data on the compositional analysis and conversion performance of whole corn stover alongside three individual anatomical fractions (cobs, husks, and stalks) across key steps of the biorefinery conversion process within FCIC’s research scope—pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis. This TEA screening assessment highlighted biorefinery economic trade-offs observed through this approach. Namely, relative to processing whole stover biomass, two of the three anatomical fractions for which composition/conversion data were available (cobs and husks) demonstrated the ability to achieve higher fuel yields and lower minimum fuel selling prices (MFSPs), while the third fraction (stalks) led to the opposite result, as a composite reflection of compositional differences and process convertibility.

cost impacts↗

DOE OSTI2022

Initial ASME code rule analysis on Simple and Full assessment

ASME & ASTM codes present simple and full assessment methodologies to qualify nuclear grade graphite components. This report explains the theory behind the statistical portion of the codes and describes the issues discussed in a 2020 workshop in the simple assessment, as well as the full assessment. The methodology for the full assessment was developed by Hindley []. He used a validation methodology to match the experimental average failure load of test specimens from several geometries to the calculated 50% POF load to tune the grouping criteria parameters based on an RMSE penalty function. The grouping criteria consists of a minimum volume to satisfy the weakest link theory of the Weibull distribution and a minimum stress range parameter. Hindley’s work found a minimum link volume of 10 times the grain size and a stress range parameter of 7% [satisfy the validation requirements. Several studies found that the link volume of 10 times the grain size was not satisfactory for the volume grouping criteria for graphite grades with fine grains. ASME 2021 code adopted a new volume grouping criteria based on fracture toughness for calculation of the process zone volume. However, errors were found in the ASME 2021 code process zone volume equation and the question is now open as to what volume grouping criteria is satisfactory. This report presents results from sensitivity studies that were done to evaluate the volume grouping criteria effect on the full assessment POF. This report also presents results from sensitivity studies on other aspects of the code that affect the POF, the mesh size and the choice of the Weibull threshold parameter. All three sensitivity studies: the volume grouping criteria, the mesh size, and the threshold parameter choice are found to affect the component qualification decision for components of structural reliability class 1 (SRC-1). The sensitivity analysis results are presented in the body of the report for NBG-18, which is the same grade of graphite as Hindley used in his thesis. Results from NBG-17, IG-110, 2114, and PCEA are presented in the Appendix. For NBG-18, it was found that increasing the threshold increases the POF, finer meshes result in higher POFs, and that smaller link volume requirements lead to higher POFs (which is inconsistent with Hindley’s findings). This report proposes a new validation study similar to Hindley’s []. The purpose of the new validation study is to tune the threshold, mesh size and grouping criteria based on results from multiple grades of graphite, including finer grain graphites T220 (1-3 microns) and NG-CT-50 (5 microns). The test specimens will be broken at 3 labs, such that we can measure between lab measurement variability, with at least 5 test specimens per lab such that the within lab uncertainty can also be measured. Hindley’s validation method tried matching the average experimental load with the median. The future study will attempt to match failures at lower percentiles, which would be closer to the SRC POF limit. We are currently looking into what geometries make sense and the best method to measure multi-axial stress states. These design decisions are still being set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Discovery of AMPX Thermal Scattering Law Processing Issue for Solid Moderators

The 2020 edition of The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook includes a newly produced plastic-moderated evaluation, identified as PU-MET-MIXED-002 and referred to as PMM002. The 2021 edition should include another new plastic-moderated experiment, HEU-MET-THERM-004, referred to as HMT-004. These evaluations are of particular interest, as PMM-002 is moderated with polyethylene, and HMT-004 is moderated with polymethyl methacrylate (Lucite), allowing for investigation of the differences in the thermal scattering laws (TSLs) available for these materials. ENDF/B-VIII.0 includes newly produced data for 1 H-based scattering materials, including Lucite and yttrium hydride. Other available 1 H TSLs include polyethylene, light water, zirconium hydride. The unbound 1 H (free-gas) cross sections were also used. ENDF/B-VIII.0 also includes revisions made to the ENDF/B-VII.1 light water and polyethylene evaluations. Zirconium hydride was unchanged from ENDF/B-VII.1. As of this writing, there are no benchmarks included in the Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID) that are primarily moderated with any solid moderator, so validation that includes the PMM-002 and HMT-004 evaluations would expand the coverage to two new moderators. A study was undertaken at Oak Ridge National Laboratory with two purposes: to provide validation data based on systems that are primarily moderated with polyethylene and Lucite, and to demonstrate the reactivity changes that can result from use of different 1 H TSLs in these plastic-moderated systems. The first objective was mainly to test data and code for SCALE and AMPX, whereas the second objective was to provide useful data for practitioners on the potential variability of predicted $k_{eff}$ based on TSL changes. The use of an exactly correct TSL is often not possible given the materials involved (e.g., lubricants), but this study was intended to provide some indication of the magnitude of the changes among similar materials that can manifest through application of different TSLs in hydrogenous systems over a range of different neutron energy spectra. Unfortunately, the nominal $k_{eff}$ results exposed deviations between SCALE and Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP). Some of the results using different TSLs were also unexpected and difficult to explain. An investigation revealed a processing issue in AMPX that was caused by an ambiguous description of the data for incoherent elastic scattering in the ENDF manual. This issue is discussed in detail in a SCALE User Notification, and it affects some solid moderators, but it does not apply to 1 H bound in water. This issue highlights the importance of validating all TSLs used in safety analysis calculations. The remainder of this paper provides a more detailed examination of the results that triggered the investigation and a summary of the findings of that investigation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic boundary condition effects on supersonic leading edge blowing

The present manuscript studies the robustness of leading edge blowing for active control of the upstream bow shock and overall aerothermal characteristics of a supersonic airfoil subject to variability in the injection conditions. The injection boundary conditions were considered stochastic and their randomness was propagated to the flow topology and aerothermal quantities of interest by means of non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos Expansions. The evaluations needed to build these expansions were carried out via steady two-dimensional Reynolds-Averaged Navier Stokes simulations. Two different injection port sizes were considered, with the smallest promoting a Coanda effect that gives rise to non-symmetric flow topologies. The uncertain boundary conditions lead to significant variations in the flow topology, particularly at the injection exit and the bow shock position, with variations of up to 75% of the nominal value. Here this study identifies the key operating conditions to ensure the optimal application of leading-edge injection for active control of supersonic airfoils.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗