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At least 1,495 records · Page 83
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Synthesis of line profiles from models of structured winds

On the basis of a careful analysis of resonance line formation (both for singlets and doublets) in structured winds, present time dependent models of the line driven winds of hot stars are shown to be able to explain a number of observational features with respect to variability and structure: they are (in principle) able to reproduce the black and broad troughs (without any artificial 'turbulence velocity') and the 'blue edge variability' observed in saturate resonance lines: they might explain the 'long lived narrow absorption components' often observed in unsaturated lines at high velocities; they predict a relation between the 'edge velocity' of UV-lines and the radiation temperature of the observed X-ray emission. As a first example of the extent to which theoretical models can be constrained by comparisons between observations and profiles calculated by spectrum synthesis from structured winds, we show here that models with deep-seated onset of structure formation (approximately greater than 1.1 R(sub *)) produce resonance lines which agree qualitatively with observational findings; in contrast, the here presented models with structure formation only well out in the wind (approximately greater than 1.6 R(sub *) fail in this respect.

Puls, J.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Turbulent Inflow Measurements

In the present research, tilt rotor aeroacoustics have been studied experimentally and computationally. Experimental measurements were made on a 1/12.5 scale model. A dimensional analysis showed that the model was a good aeroacoustic approximation to the full-scale aircraft, and scale factors were derived to extrapolate the model measurements to the full-scale XV-15. The experimental measurements included helium bubble flow visualization, silk tuft flow visualization, 2-component hot wire anemometry, 7-hole pressure probe measurements, vorticity measurements, and outdoor far field acoustic measurements. The hot wire measurements were used to estimate the turbulence statistics of the flow field into the rotors, such as length scales, velocity scales, dissipation, and turbulence intermittency. To date, these flow measurements are the only ones in existence for a hovering tilt rotor. Several different configurations of the model were tested: (1) standard configurations (single isolated rotor, two rotors without the aircraft, standard tilt rotor configuration); (2) flow control devices (the 'plate', the 'diagonal fences'); (3) basic configuration changes (increasing the rotor/rotor spacing, reducing the rotor plane/wing clearance, operating the rotors out of phase). Also, an approximation to Sikorsky's Variable Diameter Tilt Rotor (VDTR) configuration was tested, and some flow measurements were made on a semi-span configuration of the model. Acoustic predictions were made using LOWSON.M, a Mathematica code. This hover prediction code, from HOVER.FOR, used blade element theory for the aerodynamics, and Prandtl's Vortex theory to model the wake, along with empirical formulas for the effects of Reynolds number, Mach number, and stall. Aerodynamic models were developed from 7-hole pressure probe measurements of the mean velocity into the model rotors. LOWSON.M modeled a rotor blade as a single force and source/sink combination separated in the chordwise direction, at an effective blade radius. Spanwise, Mach-weighted integrals were used to find the equivalent forces and equivalent source strengths.

George, Albert R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Tilt Rotor Aircraft Aeroacoustics

A fleet of civil tilt rotor transports offers a means of reducing airport congestion and point-to-point travel time. The speed, range, and fuel economy of these aircraft, along with their efficient use of vertiport area, make them good candidates for short-to-medium range civil transport. However, to be successfully integrated into the civilian community, the tilt rotor must be perceived as a quiet, safe, and economical mode of transportation that does not harm the environment. In particular, noise impact has been identified as a possible barrier to the civil tilt rotor. Along with rotor conversion-mode flight, and blade-vortex interaction noise during descent, hover mode is a noise problem for tilt rotor operations. In the present research, tilt rotor hover aeroacoustics have been studied analytically, experimentally, and computationally. Various papers on the subject were published as noted in the list of publications. More recently, experimental measurements were made on a 1/12.5 scale model of the XV-15 in hover and analyses of this data and extrapolations to full scale were also carried out. A dimensional analysis showed that the model was a good aeroacoustic approximation to the full-scale aircraft, and scale factors were derived to extrapolate the model measurements to the full-scale XV-15. The experimental measurements included helium bubble flow visualization, silk tuft flow visualization, 2-component hot wire anemometry, 7-hole pressure probe measurements, vorticity measurements, and outdoor far field acoustic measurements. The hot wire measurements were used to estimate the turbulence statistics of the flow field into the rotors, such as length scales, velocity scales, dissipation, and turbulence intermittency. Several different configurations of the model were tested: (1) standard configurations (single isolated rotor, two rotors without the aircraft, standard tilt rotor configuration); (2) flow control devices (the 'plate', the 'diagonal fences'); (3) basic configuration changes (increasing the rotor/rotor spacing, reducing the rotor plane/wing clearance. operating the rotors out of phase). Also, an approximation to Sikorsky's Variable Diameter Tilt Rotor (VDTR) configuration was tested, and some flow measurements were made on a semi-span configuration of the model. Acoustic predictions were made using LOWSON.M, a Mathematica code Mean aerodynamic models were developed based on hover performance predictions from HOVER.FOR. This hover prediction code used blade element theory for the aerodynamics, and Prandtl's Vortex theory to model the wake, along with empirical formulas for the effects of Reynolds number, Mach number, and stall. Aerodynamic models were developed from 7-hole pressure probe measurements of the mean velocity into the model rotors.

George, Albert R.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Flight-Determined, Subsonic, Lateral-Directional Stability and Control Derivatives of the Thrust-Vectoring F-18 High Angle of Attack Research Vehicle (HARV), and Comparisons to the Basic F-18 and Predicted Derivatives

The subsonic, lateral-directional, stability and control derivatives of the thrust-vectoring F-1 8 High Angle of Attack Research Vehicle (HARV) are extracted from flight data using a maximum likelihood parameter identification technique. State noise is accounted for in the identification formulation and is used to model the uncommanded forcing functions caused by unsteady aerodynamics. Preprogrammed maneuvers provided independent control surface inputs, eliminating problems of identifiability related to correlations between the aircraft controls and states. The HARV derivatives are plotted as functions of angles of attack between 10deg and 70deg and compared to flight estimates from the basic F-18 aircraft and to predictions from ground and wind tunnel tests. Unlike maneuvers of the basic F-18 aircraft, the HARV maneuvers were very precise and repeatable, resulting in tightly clustered estimates with small uncertainty levels. Significant differences were found between flight and prediction; however, some of these differences may be attributed to differences in the range of sideslip or input amplitude over which a given derivative was evaluated, and to differences between the HARV external configuration and that of the basic F-18 aircraft, upon which most of the prediction was based. Some HARV derivative fairings have been adjusted using basic F-18 derivatives (with low uncertainties) to help account for differences in variable ranges and the lack of HARV maneuvers at certain angles of attack.

Iliff, Kenneth W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Aero-Structural Interaction, Analysis, and Shape Sensitivity

A multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis technique that has been shown to be independent of step-size selection is examined further. The accuracy of this step-size independent technique, which uses complex variables for determining sensitivity derivatives, has been previously established. The primary focus of this work is to validate the aero-structural analysis procedure currently being used. This validation consists of comparing computed and experimental data obtained for an Aeroelastic Research Wing (ARW-2). Since the aero-structural analysis procedure has the complex variable modifications already included into the software, sensitivity derivatives can automatically be computed. Other than for design purposes, sensitivity derivatives can be used for predicting the solution at nearby conditions. The use of sensitivity derivatives for predicting the aero-structural characteristics of this configuration is demonstrated.

Newman, James C., III↗
NASA NTRS2001

Reliability of a Series Pipe Network

The goal of this NASA-funded research is to advance research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction methods for improved aerospace and aircraft propulsion system components. Reliability methods are used to quantify response uncertainties due to inherent uncertainties in design variables. In this report, several reliability methods are applied to a series pipe network. The observed responses are the head delivered by a main pump and the line head at a desired flow rate. The probability that the flow rate in the line will be less than a specified minimum will be discussed.

Harris, Rodney↗
NASA NTRS2001

Reliability of a Parallel Pipe Network

The goal of this NASA-funded research is to advance research and education objectives in theoretical and computational probabilistic structural analysis, reliability, and life prediction methods for improved aerospace and aircraft propulsion system components. Reliability methods are used to quantify response uncertainties due to inherent uncertainties in design variables. In this report, several reliability methods are applied to a parallel pipe network. The observed responses are the head delivered by a main pump and the head values of two parallel lines at certain flow rates. The probability that the flow rates in the lines will be less than their specified minimums will be discussed.

Herrera, Edgar↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic and Possibilistic Analyses of the Strength of a Bonded Joint

The effects of uncertainties on the predicted strength of a single lap shear joint are examined. Probabilistic and possibilistic methods are used to account for uncertainties. A total of ten variables are assumed to be random, with normal distributions. Both Monte Carlo Simulation and the First Order Reliability Method are used to determine the probability of failure. Triangular membership functions with upper and lower bounds located at plus or minus three standard deviations are used to model uncertainty in the possibilistic analysis. The alpha cut (or vertex) method is used to evaluate the possibility of failure. Linear and geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses are used calculate the response of the joint; fracture in the adhesive and material strength failure in the strap are used to evaluate its strength. Although probabilistic and possibilistic analyses provide significantly more information than do conventional deterministic analyses, they are computationally expensive. A novel scaling approach is developed and used to substantially reduce the computational cost of the probabilistic and possibilistic analyses. The possibilistic approach for treating uncertainties appears to be viable during the conceptual and preliminary design stages when limited data are available and high accuracies are not needed. However, this viability is mixed with several cautions that are discussed herein.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗
NASA NTRS2003

Gravitational Effects on Distortion in Sintering

During sintering a powder compact gains strength through low-temperature interparticle bonding, usually induced by solid-state surface diffusion, followed by further strength contributions from high-temperature densification. In cases where a liquid phase forms, sintering densification is accelerated and shape retention is sustained while open pores remain and contribute capillary forces. Unfortunately, sintering densification requires the compact become thermally softened to a point where creep strain rates reach levels near 10(exp -2)/s when the liquid forms. On the other hand, thermal softening of the powder compact substantially reduces the strength at high temperatures. Therefore, the in situ strength evolution during sintering is a primary focus to separate compact densification (as required for high performance) with minimized distortion (as required for net-shaping). With respect to gravitation effects on distortion during sintering there are two points of substantial weakness - prior to significant interparticle bonding and during final pore closure. This research is focused on understanding the competition among interparticle neck growth, densification, thermal softening, grain boundary wetting, capillary effects associated with liquid wetting and residual porosity, and gravity. Most surprising is the apparent role of gravity, where the deviatoric stress acting on the powder structure induces skeletal formation that reduces distortion. In contrast with theory, microgravity samples exhibit more distortion yet fail to fully densify. Results are presented on the experimental concepts supporting an emerging model of sintering strength evolution that enables understanding of both distortion and densification. The experiments have relied on tungsten heavy alloys, various combinations of dihedral angle, pore size, initial porosity, liquid:solid ratio, and heating rates. On Earth, the dominant factor with respect to distortion is the starting body heterogeneity. Current modeling efforts are seeking some means to uniformly predict the distortion based on a starting pore structure heterogeneity parameter. Densification is largely unaffected by the initial pore structure, but distortion is highly variable, suggesting that nonuniform pore closure might be a significant parameter during sintering. With respect to flight experiments, plans include removal of the solid body forces acting on the solid grains, allowing stabilization of the pore structure and examination of the buoyancy effects with regard to distortion. In microgravity there is the surprising result that compacts do not densify, yet distort a factor that is contrary to all current sintering models. Densification without distortion during liquid phase sintering was achieved by manipulating microstructure and its evolution during sintering. Microstructure parameters such as the solid volume fraction, dihedral angle, initial porosity, and pore size were varied to measure densification and distortion behavior during LPS using W-Ni-Cu alloys. Green compacts were formed using ethylene-bis-stearamide as a pore-forming agent with the amount of polymer controlling the initial porosity. Different initial pore sizes were generated by varying the polymer particle size. Dihedral angle was varied by changing the Ni:Cu ratio in the alloys. Finally, the solid volume fraction was adjusted via the tungsten content. Distortion was quantified using profiles determined with a coordinate measuring machine to calculate a distortion parameter. Sintering results showed that solid volume fraction and dihedral angle are the dominant factors on densification and distortion during liquid phase sintering. Distortion decreases with increasing solid volume fraction and dihedral angle, while initial porosity and pore size have no observable effect on distortion at nearly full densification. Various strategies emerge to improve distortion control in liquid phase sintering.

German, Randall M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Human Exploration of the Moon and Mars: Space Radiation Data, Modeling and Instrumentation Needs

On January 14, 2004 President Bush announced the Vision for Space Exploration, a program for long-term human and robotic exploration of the solar system which will include a return of humans to the moon not later than 2020, followed by human missions to Mars. Since this announcement, NASA has been developing plans and mission architectures for these human missions as well as robotic precursor missions. Among the critical needs for research and development in support of this Vision are investigations on the ionizing radiation environment and development of instrumentation to guide NASA in managing the radiation exposure of the crew during the manned missions. For mission planning, models are needed for a reference worst-case solar energetic particle event and a reference worst-case galactic cosmic ray environment. During Lunar missions it will be necessary to carefully manage the radiation exposure of the crew in real time because of the variability of the radiation environment due to solar activity. In particular, prompt warnings will be needed when large solar energetic particle events occur. Accurate predictions will also be needed of the particle flux and flux history at the moon to support critical mission management decisions. A new generation of dosimeters and radiation monitors will also be needed to accompany the crew. These instruments must return data in real time so that they can be used in the critical decisions that must be made if a large solar energetic particle event occurs. This is especially true if it occurs during a lunar excursion. A substantial radiation exposure on extended lunar missions and Mars missions comes from galactic cosmic rays. This exposure must be mitigated by radiation shielding and other measures. During Mars missions the galactic cosmic ray exposure occurs primarily during the cruse phase between the Earth and Mars. This is especially true for opposition class missions. These missions would typically last -430 days with only 30-90 days on Mars. Solar energetic particle events are less of a concern on Mars because of its greater distance from the Sun (approximately 1.5 AU) and the partial protection afforded by its atmosphere (approximately 20 grams per square centimeter). The talk will describe the current plans for future human missions to Earth orbit, the Moon and Mars. The needs for data and models of the radiation environment and radiation detectors to support these missions will be discussed.

Adams, James H.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Comparison of ORSAT and SCARAB Reentry Analysis Tools for a Generic Satellite Test Case

Reentry analysis is essential to understanding the consequences of the full life cycle of a spacecraft. Since reentry is a key factor in spacecraft development, NASA and ESA have separately developed tools to assess the survivability of objects during reentry. Criteria such as debris casualty area and impact energy are particularly important to understanding the risks posed to people on Earth. Therefore, NASA and ESA have undertaken a series of comparison studies of their respective reentry codes for verification and improvements in accuracy. The NASA Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) and the ESA Spacecraft Atmospheric Reentry and Aerothermal Breakup (SCARAB) reentry analysis tools serve as standard codes for reentry survivability assessment of satellites. These programs predict whether an object will demise during reentry and calculate the debris casualty area of objects determined to survive, establishing the reentry risk posed to the Earth's population by surviving debris. A series of test cases have been studied for comparison and the most recent uses "Testsat," a conceptual satellite composed of generic parts, defined to use numerous simple shapes and various materials for a better comparison of the predictions of these two codes. This study is an improvement on the others in this series because of increased consistency in modeling techniques and variables. The overall comparison demonstrated that the two codes arrive at similar results. Either most objects modeled resulted in close agreement between the two codes, or if the difference was significant, the variance could be explained as a case of semantics in the model definitions. This paper presents the main results of ORSAT and SCARAB for the Testsat case and discusses the sources of any discovered differences. Discussion of the results of previous comparisons is made for a summary of differences between the codes and lessons learned from this series of tests.

Kelley, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Heuristic Approach to Global Landslide Susceptibility Mapping

Landslides can have significant and pervasive impacts to life and property around the world. Several attempts have been made to predict the geographic distribution of landslide activity at continental and global scales. These efforts shared common traits such as resolution, modeling approach, and explanatory variables. The lessons learned from prior research have been applied to build a new global susceptibility map from existing and previously unavailable data. Data on slope, faults, geology, forest loss, and road networks were combined using a heuristic fuzzy approach. The map was evaluated with a Global Landslide Catalog developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, as well as several local landslide inventories. Comparisons to similar susceptibility maps suggest that the subjective methods commonly used at this scale are, for the most part, reproducible. However, comparisons of landslide susceptibility across spatial scales must take into account the susceptibility of the local subset relative to the larger study area. The new global landslide susceptibility map is intended for use in disaster planning, situational awareness, and for incorporation into global decision support systems.

mapping↗
NASA NTRS2020

Ensemble-Based Deep Learning for Estimating PM2.5 over California with Multisource Big Data Including Wildfire Smoke

Estimating PM2.5 concentrations and their prediction uncertainties at a high spatiotemporal resolution is important for air pollution health effect studies. This is particularly challenging for California, which has high variability in natural (e.g. wildfires, dust) and anthropogenic emissions, meteorology, topography (e.g. desert surfaces, mountains, snow cover) and land use.

air quality↗
NASA NTRS2019

Modeling Phenological Controls on Carbon Dynamics in Dryland Sagebrush Ecosystems

Dryland ecosystems play an important role in determining how precipitation anomalies affect terrestrial carbon fluxes at regional to global scales. Thus, to understand how climate change may affect the global carbon cycle, we must also be able to understand and model its effects on dryland vegetation. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are an important tool for modeling ecosystem dynamics, but they often struggle to reproduce seasonal patterns of plant productivity. Because the phenological niche of many plant species is linked to both total productivity and competitive interactions with other plants, errors in how process-based models represent phenology hinder our ability to predict climate change impacts. This may be particularly problematic in dryland ecosystems where many species have developed a complex phenology in response to seasonal variability in both moisture and temperature. Here, we examine how uncertainty in key parameters as well as the structure of existing phenology routines affect the ability of a DGVM to match seasonal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across a temperature and precipitation gradient. First, we optimized model parameters using a combination of site-level eddy covariance data and remotely-sensed LAI data. Second, we modified the model to include a semi-deciduous phenology type and added flexibility to the representation of grass phenology. While optimizing parameters reduced model bias, the largest gains in model performance were associated with the development of our new representation of phenology. This modified model was able to better capture seasonal patterns of both leaf area index (R(exp 2) = 0.75) and gross primary productivity (R(exp 2) = 0.84), though its ability to estimate total annual GPP depended on using eddy covariance data for optimization. The new model also resulted in a more realistic outcome of modeled competition between grass and shrubs. These findings demonstrate the importance of improving how DGVMs represent phenology in order to accurately forecast climate change impacts in dryland ecosystems.

Ecosystem model↗
NASA NTRS1977

NASA's atmospheric variability experiments /AVE/

A series of seven mesoscale experiments were conducted under the NASA program, Atmospheric Variability Experiments (AVE). Rawinsonde, satellite, aircraft, and ground observations were recorded during specially selected meteorological periods lasting from 1 to 3 days. Details are presented for each AVE relative to observation times, experiment size and location, and significant weather. Some research results based on the use of these AVE data are referenced. These include contributions to regional numerical prediction; relations between wind shears, instability, and thunderstorm motion and development; relations between moisture and temperature and the probability of convection; retrieval of tropospheric temperature profiles from cloud-contaminated satellite data; variation of convection intensity as a result of atmospheric variability; and effects of cloud rotation on their trajectories.

Hill, K.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Shorebird Migration Patterns in Response to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

The availability of satellite remote sensing observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales, coupled with advances in climate modeling and information technologies offer new opportunities for the application of mechanistic models to predict how continental scale bird migration patterns may change in response to environmental change. In earlier studies, we explored the phenotypic plasticity of a migratory population of Pectoral sandpipers by simulating the movement patterns of an ensemble of 10,000 individual birds in response to changes in stopover locations as an indicator of the impacts of wetland loss and inter-annual variability on the fitness of migratory shorebirds. We used an individual based, biophysical migration model, driven by remotely sensed land surface data, climate data, and biological field data. Mean stop-over durations and stop-over frequency with latitude predicted from our model for nominal cases were consistent with results reported in the literature and available field data. In this study, we take advantage of new computing capabilities enabled by recent GP-GPU computing paradigms and commodity hardware (general purchase computing on graphics processing units). Several aspects of our individual based (agent modeling) approach lend themselves well to GP-GPU computing. We have been able to allocate compute-intensive tasks to the graphics processing units, and now simulate ensembles of 400,000 birds at varying spatial resolutions along the central North American flyway. We are incorporating additional, species specific, mechanistic processes to better reflect the processes underlying bird phenotypic plasticity responses to different climate change scenarios in the central U.S.

Smith, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seasonal Forecasting Skill for the High Mountain Asia Region in the Goddard Earth Observing System

Seasonal variability of the global hydrologic cycle directly impacts human activities, including hazard assessment and mitigation, agricultural decisions, and water resources management. This is particularly true across the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region, where availability of water resources can change depending on local seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Forecasting the atmospheric states and surface conditions, including hydrometeorological relevant variables, at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) lead times of weeks-to-months is an area of active research and development. NASA’s 15 Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) S2S prediction system has been developed with this research goal in mind. Here, we benchmark the forecast skill of GEOS-S2S (version 2) hydrometeorological forecasts at 1-3 month lead times in the HMA region, including a portion of the Indian Subcontinent, during the retrospective forecast period, 1981-2016. To assess forecast skill, we evaluate 2-m air temperature, total precipitation, fractional snow cover, snow water equivalent, surface soil moisture, and terrestrial water storage forecasts against the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and 20 Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) and independent reanalysis data, satellite observations, and data fusion products. Anomaly correlation is highest when the forecasts are evaluated against MERRA-2 and particularly in variables with long memory in the climate system, likely due to similar initial conditions and model architecture used in GEOS-S2S and MERRA-2. When compared to MERRA-2, results for the 1-month forecast skill range from anomaly correlation of R anom =0.18 for precipitation to R anom =0.62 for soil moisture. Anomaly correlations are consistently lower when forecasts are 25 evaluated against independent observations; results for the 1-month forecast skill range from R anom =0.13 for snow water equivalent to R anom =0.24 for fractional snow cover. We find that, generally, hydrometeorological forecast skill is dependent on the forecast lead time, the memory of the variable within the physical system, and the validation dataset used. Overall, these results benchmark the GEOS-S2S system’s ability to forecast HMA hydrometeorology.

GEOS↗