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NASA NTRS2006

Evaluating Clouds in Long-Term Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations with Observational Data

Two 20-day, continental midlatitude cases are simulated with a three-dimensional (3D) cloud-resolving model (CRM) and compared to Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) data. This evaluation of long-term cloud-resolving model simulations focuses on the evaluation of clouds and surface fluxes. All numerical experiments, as compared to observations, simulate surface precipitation well but over-predict clouds, especially in the upper troposphere. The sensitivity of cloud properties to dimensionality and other factors is studied to isolate the origins of the over prediction of clouds. Due to the difference in buoyancy damping between 2D and 3D models, surface precipitation fluctuates rapidly with time, and spurious dehumidification occurs near the tropopause in the 2D CRM. Surface fluxes from a land data assimilation system are compared with ARM observations. They are used in place of the ARM surface fluxes to test the sensitivity of simulated clouds to surface fluxes. Summertime simulations show that surface fluxes from the assimilation system bring about a better simulation of diurnal cloud variation in the lower troposphere.

Zeng, Xiping↗
NASA NTRS2006

Meeting Report: Long Term Monitoring of Global Vegetation using Moderate Resolution Satellites

The international community has long recognized the need to coordinate observations of Earth from space. In 1984, this situation provided the impetus for creating the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), an international coordinating mechanism charged with coordinating international civil spaceborne missions designed to observe and study planet Earth. Within CEOS, its Working Group on Calibration and Validation (WGCV) is tasked with coordinating satellite-based global observations of vegetation. Currently, several international organizations are focusing on the requirements for Earth observation from space to address key science questions and societal benefits related to our terrestrial environment. The Global Vegetation Workshop, sponsored by the WGCV and held in Missoula, Montana, 7-10 August, 2006, was organized to establish a framework to understand the inter-relationships among multiple, global vegetation products and identify opportunities for: 1) Increasing knowledge through combined products, 2) Realizing efficiency by avoiding redundancy, and 3) Developing near- and long-term plans to avoid gaps in our understanding of critical global vegetation information. The Global Vegetation Workshop brought together 135 researchers from 25 states and 14 countries to advance these themes and formulate recommendations for CEOS members and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). The eighteen oral presentations and most of the 74 posters presented at the meeting can be downloaded from the meeting website (www.ntsg.umt.edu/VEGMTG/). Meeting attendees were given a copy of the July 2006 IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing Special Issue on Global Land Product Validation, coordinated by the CEOS Working Group on Calibration and Validation (WGCV). This issue contains 29 articles focusing on validation products from several of the sensors discussed during the workshop.

Morisette, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2004

Deep Space Ka-band Link Management and the MRO Demonstration: Long-term Weather Statistics Versus Forecasting

During the last 40 years, deep space radio communication systems have experienced a move toward shorter wavelengths. In the 1960s a transition from L- to S-band occurred which was followed by a transition from S- to X-band in the 1970s. Both these transitions provided deep space links with wider bandwidths and improved radio metrics capability. Now, in the 2000s, a new change is taking place, namely a move to the Ka-band region of the radio frequency spectrum. Ka-band will soon replace X-band as the frequency of choice for deep space communications providing ample spectrum for the high data rate requirements of future missions. The low-noise receivers of deep space networks have a great need for link management techniques that can mitigate weather effects. In this paper, three approaches for managing Ka-band Earth-space links are investigated. The first approach uses aggregate annual statistics, the second one uses monthly statistics, and the third is based on the short-term forecasting of the local weather. An example of weather forecasting for Ka-band link performance prediction is presented. Furthermore, spacecraft commanding schemes suitable for Ka-band link management are investigated. Theses schemes will be demonstrated using NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) spacecraft in the 2007 to 2008 time period, and the demonstration findings will be reported in a future publication.

Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO)↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Comprehensive Plan for the Long-Term Calibration and Validation of Oceanic Biogeochemical Satellite Data

The primary objective of this planning document is to establish a long-term capability and validating oceanic biogeochemical satellite data. It is a pragmatic solution to a practical problem based primarily o the lessons learned from prior satellite missions. All of the plan's elements are seen to be interdependent, so a horizontal organizational scheme is anticipated wherein the overall leadership comes from the NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry (OBB) Program Manager and the entire enterprise is split into two components of equal sature: calibration and validation plus satellite data processing. The detailed elements of the activity are based on the basic tasks of the two main components plus the current objectives of the Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Roadmap. The former is distinguished by an internal core set of responsibilities and the latter is facilitated through an external connecting-core ring of competed or contracted activities. The core elements for the calibration and validation component include a) publish protocols and performance metrics; b) verify uncertainty budgets; c) manage the development and evaluation of instrumentation; and d) coordinate international partnerships. The core elements for the satellite data processing component are e) process and reprocess multisensor data; f) acquire, distribute, and archive data products; and g) implement new data products. Both components have shared responsibilities for initializing and temporally monitoring satellite calibration. Connecting-core elements include (but are not restricted to) atmospheric correction and characterization, standards and traceability, instrument and analysis round robins, field campaigns and vicarious calibration sites, in situ database, bio-optical algorithm (and product) validation, satellite characterization and vicarious calibration, and image processing software. The plan also includes an accountability process, creating a Calibration and Validation Team (to help manage the activity), and a discussion of issues associated with the plan's scientific focus.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Characterization of the Catalog Fengyun-1C Fragments and Their Long-term Effect on the LEO Environment

The intentional breakup of Fengyun-1C on 11 January 2007 created the most severe orbital debris cloud in history. More than 2500 large fragments were identified and tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network by the end of the year. The altitude where the event occurred was probably the worst location for a major breakup in the low Earth orbit (LEO) region, since it was already highly populated with operational satellites and debris generated from previous breakups. The addition of so many fragments not only poses a realistic threat to operational satellites in the region, but also increases the instability (i.e., collision cascade effect) of the debris population there. Preliminary analysis of the large Fengyun-1C fragments indicates that their size and area-to-mass ratio (A/M) distributions are very different from those of other known events. About half of the fragments appear to be composed of light-weight materials and more than 100 of them have A/M values exceeding 1 square meter per kilogram, consistent with thermal blanket pieces. In addition, the orbital elements of the fragments suggest nontrivial velocity gain by the fragment cloud during the impact. These important characteristics were incorporated into a numerical simulation to assess the long-term impact of the Fengyun-1C fragments to the LEO debris environment. The main objectives of the simulation were to evaluate (1) the collision probabilities between the Fengyun-1C fragments and the rest of the catalog population and (2) the collision activities and population growth in the region in the next 100 years.

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Long Term Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node Prediction

Significant error has been observed in the long term prediction of the Mean Local Time of the Ascending Node on the Aqua spacecraft. This error of approximately 90 seconds over a two year prediction is a complication in planning and timing of maneuvers for all members of the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, which use Aqua's MLTAN as the reference for their inclination maneuvers. It was determined that the source of the prediction error was the lack of a solid Earth tide model in the operational force models. The Love Model of the solid Earth tide potential was used to derive analytic corrections to the inclination and right ascension of the ascending node of Aqua's Sun-synchronous orbit. Additionally, it was determined that the resonance between the Sun and orbit plane of the Sun-synchronous orbit is the primary driver of this error. The analytic corrections have been added to the operational force models for the Aqua spacecraft reducing the two-year 90-second error to less than 7 seconds.

McKinley, David P.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Long-term Satellite Observations of Asian Dust Storm: Source, Pathway, and Interannual Variability

Among the many components that contribute to air pollution, airborne mineral dust plays an important role due to its biogeochemical impact on the ecosystem and its radiative-forcing effect on the climate system. In East Asia, dust storms frequently accompany the cold and dry air masses that occur as part of springtime cold front systems. Outbreaks of Asian dust storms occur often in the arid and semi-arid areas of northwestern China -about 1.6x10(exp 6) square kilometers including the Gobi and Taklimakan deserts- with continuous expanding of spatial coverage. These airborne dust particles, originating in desert areas far from polluted regions, interact with anthropogenic sulfate and soot aerosols emitted from Chinese megacities during their transport over the mainland. Adding the intricate effects of clouds and marine aerosols, dust particles reaching the marine environment can have drastically different properties than those from their sources. Furthermore, these aerosols, once generated over the source regions, can be transported out of the boundary layer into the free troposphere and can travel thousands of kilometers across the Pacific into the United States and beyond. In this paper, we will demonstrate the capability of a new satellite algorithm to retrieve aerosol properties (e.g., optical thickness, single scattering albedo) over bright-reflecting surfaces such as urban areas and deserts. Such retrievals have been difficult to perform using previously available algorithms that use wavelengths from the mid-visible to the near IR because they have trouble separating the aerosol signal from the contribution due to the bright surface reflectance. This new algorithm, called Deep Blue, utilizes blue-wavelength measurements from instruments such as SeaWiFS and MODIS to infer the properties of aerosols, since the surface reflectance over land in the blue part of the spectrum is much lower than for longer wavelength channels. Reasonable agreements have been achieved between Deep Blue retrievals of aerosol optical thickness and those directly from AERONET sunphotometers over desert and semi-desert regions. New Deep Blue products will allow scientists to determine quantitatively the aerosol properties near sources using high spatial resolution measurements from SeaWiFS and MODIS-like instruments. Long-term satellite measurements (1998 - 2007) from SeaWiFS will be utilized to investigate the interannual variability of source, pathway, and dust loading associated with the Asian dust storm outbreaks. In addition, monthly averaged aerosol optical thickness during the springtime from SeaWiFS will also be compared with the MODIS Deep Blue products.

Hsu, N. Christina↗
NASA NTRS2008

Atmospheric Parameter Climatologies from AIRS: Monitoring Short-, and Longer-Term Climate Variabilities and 'Trends'

The AIRS instrument is currently the best space-based tool to simultaneously monitor the vertical distribution of key climatically important atmospheric parameters as well as surface properties, and has provided high quality data for more than 5 years. AIRS analysis results produced at the GODDARD/DAAC, based on Versions 4 & 5 of the AIRS retrieval algorithm, are currently available for public use. Here, first we present an assessment of interrelationships of anomalies (proxies of climate variability based on 5 full years, since Sept. 2002) of various climate parameters at different spatial scales. We also present AIRS-retrievals-based global, regional and 1x1 degree grid-scale "trend"-analyses of important atmospheric parameters for this 5-year period. Note that here "trend" simply means the linear fit to the anomaly (relative the mean seasonal cycle) time series of various parameters at the above-mentioned spatial scales, and we present these to illustrate the usefulness of continuing AIRS-based climate observations. Preliminary validation efforts, in terms of intercomparisons of interannual variabilities with other available satellite data analysis results, will also be addressed. For example, we show that the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) interannual spatial variabilities from the available state-of-the-art CERES measurements and from the AIRS computations are in remarkably good agreement. Version 6 of the AIRS retrieval scheme (currently under development) promises to further improve bias agreements for the absolute values by implementing a more accurate radiative transfer model for the OLR computations and by improving surface emissivity retrievals.

Molnar, Gyula↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Near-Term, High-Confidence Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle

The use of well understood, legacy elements of the Space Shuttle system could yield a near-term, high-confidence Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle that offers significant performance, reliability, schedule, risk, cost, and work force transition benefits. A side-mount Shuttle-Derived Vehicle (SDV) concept has been defined that has major improvements over previous Shuttle-C concepts. This SDV is shown to carry crew plus large logistics payloads to the ISS, support an operationally efficient and cost effective program of lunar exploration, and offer the potential to support commercial launch operations. This paper provides the latest data and estimates on the configurations, performance, concept of operations, reliability and safety, development schedule, risks, costs, and work force transition opportunities for this optimized side-mount SDV concept. The results presented in this paper have been based on established models and fully validated analysis tools used by the Space Shuttle Program, and are consistent with similar analysis tools commonly used throughout the aerospace industry. While these results serve as a factual basis for comparisons with other launch system architectures, no such comparisons are presented in this paper. The authors welcome comparisons between this optimized SDV and other Heavy Lift Launch Vehicle concepts.

Rothschild, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Long-Term Atmospheric Changes Caused by the Very Large Solar Proton Event in July 2000

Solar cycle 23 was accompanied by eight very large solar proton events (SPEs) between 2000 and 2005, along with numerous smaller events. The very large SPE in July 2000, which was associated with the well-known 'Bastille Day Solar Storm,' caused very substantial changes in the polar mesosphere and stratosphere. Significant downward transport of the SPE-produced NO(x) from the polar lower mesosphere and upper stratosphere during the Southern Hemisphere winter period resulted in huge enhancements (>100%) in middle stratospheric NO(x) (NO+NO2) during September 2000 in the polar vortex, which were measured by UARS HALOE (C. E. Randall et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 28,2385-2388,2001). We have used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to study the longer-term impact of the July 2000 SPE, the third largest SPE period in the past 40 years. This very large SPE provided a wonderful opportunity to study the downward transport of energetic particle precipitation effects in the middle atmosphere. Not surprisingly, the WACCM-simulated polar Northern Hemisphere influences from the July (mid-summer) 2000 SPE were significant for a few months, but the constituent changes were not transported below about 20 hPa. However in the polar Southern Hemisphere (SH) region, the persistent downward transport in the vortex during the months of July-August-September resulted in significant modeled influences for about a year past the SPE. The SH odd nitrogen family, NO(y) (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2), was greatly enhanced by this SPE and these increases were transported to the lower stratosphere. The SPE-enhanced polar NO(y) resulted in long-lasting ozone decreases (from catalytic NO(y) destruction of ozone) and ozone increases (from NO(y) interference in the chlorine and bromine catalytic ozone destruction cycles). These ozone changes resulted in simulated SH polar stratospheric temperature decreases (1-2 K) and increases (1-3 K)..

Jackman, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Workshop Report on Deep Mars: Accessing the Subsurface of Mars on Near Term Missions

The workshop encompassed three major themes. The first theme was the scientific objectives of drilling, which center on the search for clues to the existence of past life and to the geological and climate history of Mars. Key questions are where and how deep to drill? Planetary protection issues were stressed as an important consideration in the design of any drilling mission. Secondly, architectures for drilling missions were discussed, including an overview of most of the current drills in operation that would be applicable to drilling on Mars. Considerable emphasis was placed on remote operation and drilling automation technologies. Finally, alternatives to conventional drilling were discussed. These included underground moles, penetrometers, horizontal drilling, impactors, and access to the subsurface from subsurface cavities. Considerable discussion centered on the possible Mars drilling missions that could be performed in both the near and longer term. The workshop participants concluded that useful science could be obtained today using low-cost impactors, with or without a sheperding spacecraft.

Langhoff, Stephanie R.↗
NASA NTRS2009

RXTE Monitoring of the Anomalous X-ray Pulsar 1E 1048.1-5937: Long-Term Variability and the 2007 March Event

After three years of no unusual activity, Anomalous X-ray Pulsar 1E 1048.1-5937 reactivated in 2007 March. We report on the detection of a large glitch (deltav/v = 1.63(2) x 10(exp -5)) on 2007 March 26 (MJD 54185.9), contemporaneous with the onset of a pulsed-flux flare, the third flare observed from this source in 10 years of monitoring with the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer. Additionally, we report on a detailed study of the evolution of the timing properties, the pulsed flux, and the pulse profile of this source as measured by RXTE from 1996 July to 2008 January. In our timing study, we attempted phase coherent timing of all available observations. We show that in 2001, a timing anomaly of uncertain nature occurred near the rise of the first pulsed flux flare; we show that a likely glitch (deltav/v = 2.91(9) x 10(exp -6)) occurred in 2002, near the rise of the second flare, and we present a detailed description of the variations in the spin-down. In our pulsed flux study, we compare the decays of the three flares and discuss changes in the hardness ratio. In our pulse profile study, we show that the profile exhibited large variations near the peak of the first two flares, and several small short-term profile variations during the most recent flare. Finally, we report on the discovery of a small burst 27 days after the peak of the last flare, the fourth burst discovered from this source. We discuss the relationships between the observed properties in the framework of the magnetar model.

Dib, Rim↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Impact of the Assimilation of AIRS Radiance Measurements on Short-term Weather Forecasts

Advanced spaceborne instruments have the ability to improve the horizontal and vertical characterization of temperature and water vapor in the atmosphere through the explicit use of hyperspectral thermal infrared radiance measurements. The incorporation of these measurements into a data assimilation system provides a means to continuously characterize a three-dimensional, instantaneous atmospheric state necessary for the time integration of numerical weather forecasts. Measurements from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) are incorporated into the gridpoint statistical interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) assimilation system to provide improved initial conditions for use in a mesoscale modeling framework mimicking that of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The methodologies for the incorporation of the measurements into the system are presented. Though the measurements have been shown to have a positive impact in global modeling systems, the measurements are further constrained in this system as the model top is physically lower than the global systems and there is no ozone characterization in the background state. For a study period, the measurements are shown to have positive impact on both the analysis state as well as subsequently spawned short-term (0-48 hr) forecasts, particularly in forecasted geopotential height and precipitation fields. At 48 hr, height anomaly correlations showed an improvement in forecast skill of 2.3 hours relative to a system without the AIRS measurements. Similarly, the equitable threat and bias scores of precipitation forecasts of 25 mm (6 hr)-1 were shown to be improved by 8% and 7%, respectively.

McCarty, Will↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Review of the Recent NASA Long-Term Orbital Debris Environment Projection and Active Debris Removal Modeling Activities

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) developed a high fidelity debris evolutionary model, LEGEND (a LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris model), in 2004 to enhance its capability to better model the near-Earth environment. LEGEND can mimic the growth of the historical debris population and project it into the future based on user-defined scenarios. The first major LEGEND study concluded that even without any future launches, the LEO population would continue to increase due to mutual collisions among existing objects. In reality, the increase will be worse than this prediction because of ongoing satellite launches and unexpected major breakups. Even with a full implementation of the commonly-adopted mitigation measures, the LEO population growth is inevitable. To preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations, active debris removal (ADR) must be considered. A follow-up LEGEND ADR study was completed recently. The main results indicate that (1) the mass and collision probability of each object can be used to establish an effective removal selection criterion and (2) a removal rate of ~5 objects per year is sufficient to stabilize the LEO environment. Due to the limitation of removal techniques, however, different target selection criteria (in size, altitude, inclination, etc.) may be more practical. A careful evaluation of the effectiveness of different proposed techniques must be carried out to maximize the long-term benefit to the environment.

Liou, J.C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

NASA's Long-term Debris Environment and Active Debris Removal Modeling Activities

This slide presentation reviews the modeling activities for modeling of the long-term debris environment, the updated assessments of the environment, and the necessity to model the effectiveness of the technologies aimed at the removal of orbital debris. The model being used is named a LEO to GEO environment debris (LEGEND). It is a high fidelity three dimensional numerical simulation model with the capability to treat objects individually. It uses a Monte Carlo approach and a collision probability evaluation algorithm to simulate future satellite breakups and the growth of the debris populations.

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Short-term Aerosol Trends: Reality or Myth?

The main questions addressed in this slide presentation involve short-term trends of MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over 6 years: (1) Why are the trends different in different regions? (2) How are these trends so high? (3) Why are they "coherent" in many areas? (4) Are these changes in aerosol concentrations real, i.e., are they monotonic changes in emissions? Several views of the Spatial Distribution of AOT from Terra are shown. In conclusion there are several trends: (1) There is a broad spatial inhomogenueity in AOT trends over 6 years of MODIS Terra and Aqua (2) Some of the areas demonstrate clear positive trends related to increase of emission (e.g., Eastern China) (3) Strong trends in some other areas are superficial and might be attributed, in part, to: (3a) Least squares linear trend sensitivity to outliers (need to use more robust linear fitting method) (3b) Spatial and temporal shifts or trends in meteorological conditions, especially in wind patterns responsible for aerosol transport (6) Aerosol trends should be studied together with changes in meteorology patterns as they might closely linked together

Leptoukh, Gregory↗
NASA NTRS2010

Long-Term Time Series of Remote Sensing Observations for Development of Regulatory Water Quality Standards

Water quality standards in the U.S. consist of: designated uses (the services that a water body provides; e.g., drinking water, aquatic life, harvestable species, recreation) . criteria that define the environmental conditions that must be maintained to support the uses For estuaries and coastal waters in the Gulf of Mexico, there are no numeric (quantitative) criteria to protect designated uses from effects of nutrients. This is largely due to the absence of adequate data that would quantitatively link biological conditions to nutrient concentrations. The Gulf of Mexico Alliance, an organization fostering collaboration between the Gulf States and U.S. Federal agencies, has identified the development of the numeric nutrient criteria as a major step leading to reduction in MODIS Products Figure 6. Map of the Mobile Bay with a yellow patch indicating the Bon Secour Bay area selected in this study for averaging water clarity parameters retrieved from MODIS datasets. nutrient inputs to coastal ecosystems. Nutrient enrichment in estuaries and coastal waters can be quantified based on response variables that measure phytoplankton biomass and water clarity. Long-term, spatially and temporally resolved measurements of chlorophyll a concentration, total concentration of suspended solids, and water clarity are needed to establish reference conditions and to quantify stressor-response relationships.

Blonski, Slawomir↗
NASA NTRS2008

Measurements of Humidity in the Atmosphere: Validation Experiments (MOHAVE I and MOHAVE II). Results Overview and Implication for the Long-Term Lidar Monitoring of Water Vapor in the UT/LS

1. MOHAVE+MOHAVE II = very successful. 2. MOHAVE -> Fluorescence was found to be inherent to all three participating lidars. 3. MOHAVE II -> Fluorescence was removed and agreement with CFH was extremely good up to 16-18 km altitude. 4. MOHAVE II -> Calibration tests revealed unsuspected shortfalls of widely used techniques, with important implications for their applicability to longterm measurements. 5. A factor of 5 in future lidar signal-to-noise ratio is reasonably achievable. When this level is achieved water vapor Raman lidar will become a key instrument for the long-term monitoring of water vapor in the UT/LS

MOHAVE II↗