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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Parametric Modeling of the Safety Effects of NextGen Terminal Maneuvering Area Conflict Scenarios

The goal of this work was to analytically identify and quantify the issues, challenges, technical hurdles, and pilot-vehicle interface issues associated with conflict detection and resolution (CD&R)in emerging operational concepts for a NextGen terminal aneuvering area, including surface operations. To this end, the work entailed analytical and trade studies focused on modeling the achievable safety benefits of different CD&R strategies and concepts in the current and future airport environment. In addition, crew-vehicle interface and pilot performance enhancements and potential issues were analyzed based on review of envisioned NextGen operations, expected equipage advances, and human factors expertise. The results of perturbation analysis, which quantify the high-level performance impact of changes to key parameters such as median response time and surveillance position error, show that the analytical model developed could be useful in making technology investment decisions.

Rogers, William H.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Prioritization of Model Support Activities for Performance and Safety Assessments - 17111

and tank farm closure consider the performance of a wide variety of wastes, facilities and natural systems over very long time frames. Within the United States Department of Energy - Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM), several PAs are currently being developed and similar applications are underway at numerous locations around the world. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is providing technical support for PAs at several DOE-EM sites and developed recommendations for approaches to prioritize model support activities to help focus efforts on activities that would be expected to significantly influence decision-making. A general approach has been developed to identify data needs for the modeling, foster integration and communication between the PA team and the groups providing model support, and document the basis for prioritization of specific model support efforts. The approach addresses development of the rationale for efforts to address key needs and also describe the rationale for not pursuing efforts that are not expected to influence the conclusions of the PA. The approach will be of use for groups conducting PAs for waste disposal and can also be applied for other modeling efforts for site restoration activities (e.g., decommissioning, environmental remediation, etc.). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2010

Project M: Scale Model of Lunar Landing Site of Apollo 17

The basis of the project was creating a scale model representation of the Apollo 17 lunar landing site. Vital components included surface slope characteristics, crater sizes and locations, prominent rocks, and lighting conditions. The model was made for Project M support when evaluating approach and terminal descent as well as when planning surface operations with respect to the terrain. The project had five main mi lestones during the length of the project. The first was examining the best method to use to re-create the Apollo 17 landing site and then reviewing research fmdings with Dr. Tim Crain and EO staff which occurred on June 25, 2010 at a meeting. The second step was formulating a construction plan, budget, and schedule and then presenting the plan for authority to proceed which occurred on July 6,2010. The third part was building a prototype to test materials and building processes which were completed by July 13, 2010. Next was assembling the landing site model and presenting a mid-term construction status report on July 29, 2010. The fifth and final milestone was demonstrating the model and presenting an exit pitch which happened on August 4, 2010. The project was very technical: it needed a lot of research about moon topography, lighting conditions and angles of the sun on the moon, Apollo 17, and Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT), before starting the actual building process. This required using Spreadsheets, searching internet sources and conducting personal meetings with project representatives. This information assisted the interns in deciding the scale of the model with respect to cracks, craters and rocks and their relative sizes as the objects mentioned could interfere with any of the Lunar Landers: Apollo, Project M and future Landers. The project concluded with the completion of a three dimensional scale model of the Apollo 17 Lunar landing site. This model assists Project M members because they can now visualize approach phase, terminal descent phase, and surface phase operations on the physical model. The project had an additional requirement that was also satisfied: the granite table the model was placed on must be returnable to its original condition if needed in the future.

O'Brien, Hollie↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effect of Computational Schemes on Coupled Flow and Geo-Mechanical Modeling of CO 2 Leakage through a Compromised Well

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) describes a set of technically viable processes to separate carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from industrial byproduct streams and inject it into deep geologic formations for long-term storage. Legacy wells located within the spatial domain of new injection and production activities represent potential pathways for fluids (i.e., CO 2 and aqueous phase) to leak through compromised components (e.g., through fractures or micro-annulus pathways). The finite element (FE) method is a well-established numerical approach to simulate the coupling between multi-phase fluid flow and solid phase deformation interactions that occur in a compromised well system. We assumed the spatial domain consists of a three-phases system: a solid, liquid, and gas phase. For flow in the two fluids phases, we considered two sets of primary variables: the first considering capillary pressure and gas pressure (PP) scheme, and the second considering liquid pressure and gas saturation (PS) scheme. Fluid phases were coupled with the solid phase using the full coupling (i.e., monolithic coupling) and iterative coupling (i.e., sequential coupling) approaches. The challenge of achieving numerical stability in the coupled formulation in heterogeneous media was addressed using the mass lumping and the upwinding techniques. Numerical results were compared with three benchmark problems to assess the performance of coupled FE solutions: 1D Terzaghi’s consolidation, Liakopoulos experiments, and the Kueper and Frind experiments. We found good agreement between our results and the three benchmark problems. For the Kueper and Frind test, the PP scheme successfully captured the observed experimental response of the non-aqueous phase infiltration, in contrast to the PS scheme. These exercises demonstrate the importance of fluid phase primary variable selection for heterogeneous porous media. We then applied the developed model to the hypothetical case of leakage along a compromised well representing a heterogeneous media. Considering the mass lumping and the upwinding techniques, both the monotonic and the sequential coupling provided identical results, but mass lumping was needed to avoid numerical instabilities in the sequential coupling. Additionally, in the monolithic coupling, the magnitude of primary variables in the coupled solution without mass lumping and the upwinding is higher, which is essential for the risk-based analyses.

deformation flow↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Electrification Using Renewable Energies: Microgrid Installation Model with Combined Mixture k-Means Clustering Algorithm, Mixed Integer Linear Programming, and Onsset Method

Optimal planning and design of microgrids are priorities in the electrification of off-grid areas. Indeed, in one of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7), the UN recommends universal access to electricity for all at the lowest cost. Several optimization methods with different strategies have been proposed in the literature as ways to achieve this goal. This paper proposes a microgrid installation and planning model based on a combination of several techniques. The programming language Python 3.10 was used in conjunction with machine learning techniques such as unsupervised learning based on K-means clustering and deterministic optimization methods based on mixed linear programming. These methods were complemented by the open-source spatial method for optimal electrification planning: onsset. Four levels of study were carried out. The first level consisted of simulating the model obtained with a cluster, which is considered based on the elbow and k-means clustering method as a case study. The second level involved sizing the microgrid with a capacity of 40 kW and optimizing all the resources available on site. The example of the different resources in the Togo case was considered. At the third level, the work consisted of proposing an optimal connection model for the microgrid based on voltage stability constraints and considering, above all, the capacity limit of the source substation. Finally, the fourth level involved a planning study of electrification strategies based mainly on microgrids according to the study scenario. The results of the first level of study enabled us to obtain an optimal location for the centroid of the cluster under consideration, according to the different load positions of this cluster. Then, the results of the second level of study were used to highlight the optimal resources obtained and proposed by the optimization model formulated based on the various technology costs, such as investment, maintenance, and operating costs, which were based on the technical limits of the various technologies. In these results, solar systems account for 80% of the maximum load considered, compared to 7.5% for wind systems and 12.5% for battery systems. Next, an optimal microgrid connection model was proposed based on the constraints of a voltage stability limit estimated to be 10% of the maximum voltage drop. The results obtained for the third level of study enabled us to present selective results for load nodes in relation to the source station node. Finally, the last results made it possible to plan electrification using different network technologies and systems in the short and long term. The case study of Togo was taken into account. The various results obtained from the different techniques provide the necessary leads for a feasibility study for optimal electrification of off-grid areas using microgrid systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydrogen Storage System Modeling: Public Access, Maintenance, and Enhancements

This presentation summarizes the Fiscal Year 2020 status and accomplishments for the Hydrogen Storage System Modeling project, a collaborative effort to manage, update, and enhance hydrogen storage system models developed under the Hydrogen Storage Engineering Center of Excellence (HSECoE). The project goal is to provide validated modeling tools that will be used by researchers to evaluate the performance of their new materials in engineered systems relative to the DOE technical targets.

AMR↗
DOE OSTI2020

Subtask 1.3 – Integrated Carbon Capture and Storage for North Dakota Ethanol Production

The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC), in partnership with Red Trail Energy, LLC (RTE), a North Dakota ethanol producer; the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC) Renewable Energy Program (REP); and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), conducted a feasibility and implementation study for a commercial carbon capture and storage (CCS) effort. This subtask provided technical support and developed recommended practices of how small-scale industrial CO2 emitters (<1,000,000 tonnes of CO2 emitted annually) may economically deploy CCS. The 64-million-gallon dry mill RTE ethanol facility, emitting an average 180,000 tonnes of CO2 annually, was the subject of the case study. The positive outcome of this research, which shows technical and economic potential for ethanol–CCS in North Dakota, has resulted in RTE acquiring an approved Permit to Drill on December 2, 2019, for a stratigraphic test well in early 2020, a necessary step toward a North Dakota CO2 Storage Facility Permit (SFP) for the RTE CCS effort. Outcomes include 1) validating the Broom Creek Formation as a regional target for CCS, 2) determining the full carbon life cycle of an industrial fuel production facility with CCS, 3) developing a field implementation plan (FIP) for small-scale CCS, and 4) determining the validity and pathway for using CCS to meet low-carbon fuel (LCF) standards. The technical team included the EERC, RTE, Trimeric Corporation, Schlumberger Carbon Services, and Computer Modelling Group (CMG). Findings from activities conducted November 2016 – May 2020 are summarized as follows. Several key steps have been accomplished toward validating the Broom Creek Formation as a CO2 injection and storage target at the RTE CCS site, including verification of the presence and structure of sandstone layers that may comprise the potential CO2 storage reservoir and the several thousand feet of overlying confining zone. Work included site characterization using existing data, interpretation of seismic data within the study area, and geologic modeling simulation of CO2 injection. Interpreted results estimate 3000 feet of confining zone between the Broom Creek Formation (storage target) and the lowermost underground source of drinking water (e.g., the Fox Hills Formation). The thickness of the Broom Creek injection target varies 230–420 ft within the survey area. Results were used to inform the location of a stratigraphic test well and associated characterization test program. No impediments were identified within the targeted CO2 storage complex that would prevent the project from moving forward. A stratigraphic test well is the next step to validate these results and to acquire remaining data necessary to develop a North Dakota CO2 SFP application. The EERC generated full carbon life cycle estimates for CCS integration with the RTE ethanol facility. Results indicated that an average 40% reduction in CO2 emissions is possible through CCS implementation. Approximately half of the carbon in the overall life cycle for a dry mill ethanol plant is generated through the fermentation process and emitted to the atmosphere; this is the CO2 stream targeted for CCS. The remaining carbon is attributed to corn feedstock farming (diesel, fertilizer), energy for fuel processing (natural gas, electricity), and transportation (diesel) of the fuel product. Life cycle carbon estimates are also affected by the anticipated energy consumption of a potential capture facility, which depend on the type of CO2 product generated. For example, a 30%–40% net CO2 emission reduction is estimated if a liquefied CO2 facility were incorporated compared to a 40%–50% net CO2 reduction if a supercritical “injection-grade” CO2 product is generated; i.e., more energy is required to further refine the CO2 stream, affecting the full carbon life cycle estimates. A CCS FIP was developed and initiated at the RTE CCS site, resulting in the development of several guidance documents: a CO2 Capture Process Design Package, a North Dakota CO2 geologic Storage Permits Template, and a Public Outreach Package for CCS in North Dakota. General FIP components include CO2 capture system, pipeline and well designs; monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) plans; geologic characterization and testing programs; and permitting and outreach plans. Vendor bids were also acquired for the CO2 liquefaction facility. Near-surface characterization (groundwater and soil gas sampling) and geologic characterization (seismic survey) were initiated to inform development of a UIC Class VI-compliant MVA plan compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. Designs (well and geologic testing) were completed for a stratigraphic test well compliant with a North Dakota CO2 SFP. In addition, the outreach plan was executed, including community open houses, meetings with city/county/state officials, and development of public materials. Although other entities continued to mature incentive programs in 2019–2020, California and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) currently provide the most advanced economic opportunities for CCS integrated with fuel production. The California Low-Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) adopted a CCS Protocol in January 2019, allowing submittal of a design-based pathway (DBP) application for an approved temporary (not certified) carbon intensity value for a fully engineered facility. An ethanol–CCS DBP application to the California LCFS Program (officially approved February 28, 2020) was developed to show that the RTE CCS effort meets LCFS requirements. The approved DBP provides confidence to advance the project and supports potential investments. Other entities continue to mature incentive programs. The IRS issued guidance in February 2020 that addresses the definition of beginning of construction and revenue procedure on partnerships for the Enhancement of Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Credit (a.k.a. Section 45Q) CCS tax credit program; the IRS anticipates issuing further guidance on issues such as secure geologic storage, utilization qualifications, and recapture of claimed credits. Maturing incentive programs coupled with workable permitting regulations provide confidence to advance CCS projects in North Dakota and support financial investment to proceed with designing, constructing, and implementing CCS projects at small-scale fuel production facilities. The largest hurdles for CCS implementation at small-scale industrial systems are often business/economic-related (i.e., not technical). Market uncertainty already exists for agriculture-based alternative fuels such as corn ethanol, for which production has increased by ~33%, and prices have correspondingly lowered since 2015. Passing the Section 45Q tax credit program improves economic feasibility for CCS but may require external investors for a small business to achieve maximum benefits. Public–private partnerships with NDIC and DOE have resulted in foundational technical and regulatory knowledge, growing stakeholder confidence, and a pathway to implementation that enables similar industrial CCS projects in the region to advance. This subtask was funded through the EERC–DOE Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by NDIC and RTE. The authors would also like to thank CMG, ESRI, IHS, Neuralog, and Schlumberger for allowing the use of their software packages in support of this work.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards an Aviation Large Language Model by Fine-tuning and Evaluating Transformers

In the aviation domain, there are many applications for machine learning and artificial intelligence tools that utilize natural language. For example, there is a desire to know the commonalities in written safety reports such as voluntary post incidents reports or aerial wildfire operations reports to better understand the risks present. Another use-case is the possibility of extracting airspace procedures and constraints currently written in documents such as Letters of Agreement. These applications can benefit from the use of state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques when adapted to the language/phraseology specific to the aviation domain. This paper evaluates the viability of adaptation of NLP tools to the aviation domain by fine-tuning transformer based models using aviation data sets. In 2018, a novel language model based on neural units (also called transformers) was created and became known as “Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers” or BERT. This architecture combined with large amounts of English training data and innovative semi-supervised training tasks set the standard for what would later emerge as Large Language Models. The performance of these models was further improved by hyperparameter tuning and refinement of the semi-supervised training task and resulted in “Robustly Optimized BERT Pre-training Approach through hyperparameter tuning” or RoBERTa models. These pre-trained Large Language Models proved to be useful for a wide variety of natural language processing tasks such as text classification and question answering through a process called fine-tuning. The transformer architecture with pre-trained weights served as the basis with the last few layers replaced with layers fine-tuned to perform a new task e.g., a layer that provides a label for the entire input text. This process of fine-tuning can also be used to adapt the models to new domains; e.g., BioBERT started with the pre-trained BERT model and was completed by additional fine-tuning and training on biomedical documents. Transformer-based architectures can also be used to create rich representations of text called embeddings which can serve as the input to other machine learning models. This allows simpler algorithms such as logistic regression to use context-rich representations of the text while still remaining quick to train and evaluate. In the world of aviation, there is a growing demand for natural language processing and understanding but the domain presents unique challenges. Due to the technical content (and specialized language) of most aviation documents, fine-tuning pre-trained Large Language Models to specific tasks has not met the benchmark on natural language processing tasks set by simpler models trained from scratch on the data. To address this deficiency, this paper evaluates the improvements from fine-tuning a Large Language Model on a large set of aviation documents using the original semi-supervised training tasks before performing specific natural language tasks. In fine-tuning, a domain-specific dataset is used on the original training task but with the pre-trained Large Language Model instead of starting from a random initialization. This approach allows the model to be adapted to the specific domain language without discarding the information gained from training on general English data. This paper utilized two major dataset types to train and assess the RoBERTa fine-tuning performance. The first are 7,057 Letters of Agreement which are Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) documents that formalize airspace operations across the national airspace system. They contain many examples of ‘aviation English’ using domain specific terminology and phrasing which serves as a representative basis to perform the semi-supervised fine-tuning. The second type is the 494 document classification labels to be used for evaluation. This down-stream evaluation aims to show the performance of the fine-tuned model, better understand how much data is needed for an effective fine-tuning, and how fine-tuning can be adapted for different applications in-the domain. After semi-supervised training, evaluation begins by encoding the documents for classification using the fine-tuned RoBERTa model. Then a logistic regression classifier is trained to label the document type and compared against our ground truth labels. This currently leads to a 82.8% accuracy on 10-fold cross validation showing improvement over baseline RoBERTa which achieved 81.0%. We plan to measure the improvements on additional tasks and it is expected that these improvements will lead to more robust models that can tackle the natural language processing challenges present in aviation datasets.

ATM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lessons Learned from Medical System Foundation Development for Long-Duration Lunar Orbit and Lunar Surface Missions

The Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element has been tasked with the development of Medical System Foundations for Level of Care IV for both short-duration lunar orbital missions and, subsequently, long-duration lunar orbital and surface operations missions. These Medical System Foundations serve as a framework to aid in early medical system design and mission planning. The content of both Foundation models is similar, consisting of a concept of operations, functional decomposition, clinical content (medical conditions, capabilities, and resources), technical requirements (interface, non-functional, and functional), and traces between these components and to the NASA standards documents and parent-level (Program- and Vehicle habitat system-level) requirements. Additionally, the development of both Foundations employed systems engineering principles and a model-based systems engineering (MBSE) approach. Throughout the development of these Foundations, ExMC has strived to improve the efficiency and robustness of its processes and to be more responsive to change (i.e., in design reference mission parameters and assumptions) and to stakeholders’ feedback. The most significant improvements made between the short- and long-duration Foundation models during this transformation process are the following: • Replacement of the traditional document-based ConOps with a model-based ConOps according to MBSE principles, which facilitated more efficient understanding of the material and the consolidation of all relevant information into a centralized location. • Utilization of an agile approach with tasks organized into sprints. This approach enabled solicitation of more frequent usability feedback from stakeholders, incorporation of more human factors reviews into the sprints, and more efficient tasking of team members. This presentation will discuss the journey of developing both Foundation models, as well as the lessons learned and resulting improvements made between the Short- and Long-Duration models.

M Kaetzer↗
DOE OSTI2019

Framework for Evaluating Grid Readiness for Integrating Electric Vehicles and Utility Scale Storage in India

Electric vehicles (EVs) and distributed solar are poised to grow substantially in India in the coming years following ambitious Government of India targets. The localized impact of these changes, both in terms of infrastructure investments and demand patterns, are not well understood, nor are tools for this type of analysis readily available. This paper describes the development of a framework that can analyze network readiness in terms of feeder impacts for distributed energy resources (DERs) including growing EV penetration, and the potential solutions introduced by utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESSs). The building blocks of the feeder analysis require multiple data sets to be compiled into a usable network model. The work is driven by feeder head and distribution transformer (DT) loading data along with all the technical specifications and schematics of distribution feeders. These measured data sets are conditioned to remove any afflictions, and the cleaned load profiles are used to perform multi-year quasi-static time-series power flow analyses on detailed three-phase feeder models. EVs translated to grid-tied loads are represented with aggregated EV demand profile estimates based on possible charging scenarios in residential sector, and in workplace and/or public charging stations. Finally, BESSs are evaluated for their cost-effectiveness in the framework through an initial screening that includes the benefits of grid service applications to mitigate present and future overloading scenarios. The outcomes from this framework are expected to help utilities gauge the readiness of their distribution grid for integrating an increasing number of EVs as well as load growth during a projected multi-year time horizon, where BESSs can contribute in making the grid more reliable.

electric vehicles↗
DOE OSTI2024

Idaho National Laboratory Integrated Multisite SSHAC Level 3: Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment

The Idaho National Laboratory (INL) resides on the eastern Snake River Plain (ESRP), part of the Snake River Plain (SRP) with a complex origin and geologic history of volcanism. Much of the Quaternary (last 2.58 million years) volcanism within 400 km of INL is genetically associated with a major thermal anomaly referred to as the Yellowstone hotspot, which is currently located more than 180 km northeast of INL. Near INL, local volcanic sources include silicic domes near its southern border, and numerous dike-fed basaltic vents of the ESRP, some of which are near or within the INL boundaries. Quantitative probabilistic assessments of screened-in volcanic hazardous phenomena for nine different facility complexes at the INL are presented for a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 (SL3) study. The comprehensive, integrated multisite SSHAC study consists of a single regional Probabilistic Volcanic Hazards Assessment (PVHA) that pertains to all nine INL facility complexes, with site-specific information developed at each respective area of interest (AOI), referred to as the "INL facility AOI" (Figure ES-1). Hazard products are generated for specified INL facility AOIs for use by multiple stakeholders from different agencies in risk-informed decision-making regarding site selection, operations, and design of nuclear facilities at INL, consistent with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) regulatory guidance. The study also serves as the basis for future periodic safety assessments required for existing DOE facilities, such as 10-year evaluations of natural-phenomena hazards. Elements of the INL PVHA including initial characterization, screening, quantitative assessments of eruption and hazard potential, and consideration of facility needs are conducted using the three phases of the SSHAC process: evaluation, integration, and documentation. As per regulatory guidance, the SSHAC framework provided the necessary processes and procedures for the PVHA Technical Integration (TI) team, at three workshops, five formal working meetings and many TI team remote meetings, to conduct initial characterization, screen the volcanic hazards, create PVHA model inputs, exercise those models in the PVHA, consider facility-specific volcanic hazard needs, and perform final hazard calculations. The Participatory Peer Review Panel (PPRP) provided independent oversight and performed process and technical reviews of the PVHA throughout its duration. The study included an extensive New Data Collection and Analyses (NDCA) program developed by the PVHA TI team to reduce uncertainties in hazard-significant elements in the PVHA model. NDCA activities generated 20 reports providing important contributory datasets and results to the project database for characterizing the ESRP. For example, a report compiling the dimensions of ESRP shield volcanoes and lava fields was used to construct volcanic footprints (areas of impact), was compared with data from INL subsurface cores, and was used to validate the results of lava-flow inundation modeling on the contemporary terrain. Another example is the acquisition of aeromagnetic data over INL and its surrounding area, with maps of buried magmatic features (e.g., subsurface volcanoes and swarms of feeder dikes) that informed the PVHA conceptual model of volcanism. The SSHAC evaluation process was used to conduct all elements of the PVHA including initial characterization and screening. Existing data and NDCA activities provided the foundation to develop the tectonomagmatic conceptual model of volcanism for the region of geographical interest in the SRP and Yellowstone hotspot volcanic system, and for considering volcanoes in the western US. Considering Quaternary volcanic sources active during this period, the screening approach identified and evaluated magma compositions, types of eruptive and intrusive phenomena, types of hazardous phenomena, and proximity of sources to INL. The PVHA TI team evaluated 18 types of magmatic sources in terms of 20 potentially hazardous phenomena, resulting in 360 screening decisions. The screening process resulted in 140 screened-in hazardous volcanic phenomena for Quaternary volcanic sources 1) proximal to INL facility complexes in the ESRP (64 basaltic and 54 silicic), 2) regional sources associated with the Yellowstone caldera system and Blackfoot Reservoir volcanic field (7), and 3) more distal sources from thirteen Cascade volcanoes and two volcanoes at Long Valley caldera (CA).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hardness Prediction by Incorporating Heat Transfer and Molten Pool Fluid Flow in a Multi-pass, Multi-layer Weld for Onsite Repair of Grade 91 steel

Introduction: In the current fleet of fossil-fired power plants, creep strength enhanced ferritic steels (CSEF) are used to sustain the harsh service conditions. Enhanced properties of Grade 91 steel result from tempered martensite with a fine distribution of MX and M23C6 carbides. Grade 91 steel is subjected to onsite welding repair to remedy their degradation due to extreme service condition. Knowledge of weld repairability of these steels, such as as-welded hardness distribution, is essential to establishing sound repair procedures. Experimental trial and error tests can consume a lot of time as many welding variables need to be studied. For numerical modelling, most of the multi-pass multi-layer models are based on finite element method, which are limited to solve the heat conduction equation and ignore convective heat transfer due to melt flow. Moreover, the mesh has to be pre-built based on a known or assumed weld cross-section geometry. These finite element based models thus have limited predictive capability as defects are not considered and nugget size are pre-assumed. This research aims at developing a thermal and microstructure evolution model incorporating molten pool dynamics in a multi-pass multi-layer material deposition to predict the as-welded hardness distribution. Technical Approach: All the thermal, physical, and metallurgical properties of Grade 91 as a function of temperature are collected from the literature and inputted into the thermo-fluid model based on Flow-3D, a computational fluid dynamics software. A multi-pass, multi-layer material deposition is simulated where the melting of filler wire into the molten pool is directly considered based on the volume of fluid (VOF) method. The flow behaviour of the molten pool is used to understand the formation of deposition geometry and defects. The temperature profiles during the multi-pass, multi-layer welding are calculated. The results computed using the new model are compared against the experimental data of fusion zone geometry and thermal cycles. Hardness prediction in the heat-affected zone (HAZ) are made using Johnson-Mehl-Avrami (JMA) equation for solid-state phase transformation kinetics. The JMA parameters are extracted from the experimental data available in the literature. For comparison, a standard finite element heat conduction model is also developed to predict the thermal cycles and hardness distribution in the multi-pass, multi-layer weld. Expected Result: Results obtained using the molten pool dynamic simulation versus the finite element heat conduction model are compared. Specifically, the effects of convective heat transfer on the accuracy of the calculated thermal history, bead shape and size, and HAZ hardness distribution are examined.

Modeling, Grade 91 steel, Multi-pass multi-layer d↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combining computational modeling and experimental library screening to affinity-mature VEEV-neutralizing antibody F5

Engineered monoclonal antibodies have proven to be highly effective therapeutics in recent viral outbreaks. However, despite technical advancements, an ability to rapidly adapt or increase antibody affinity and by extension, therapeutic efficacy, has yet to be fully realized. We endeavored to stand-up such a pipeline using molecular modeling combined with experimental library screening to increase the affinity of F5, a monoclonal antibody with potent neutralizing activity against Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis Virus (VEEV), to recombinant VEEV (IAB) E1E2 antigen. We modeled the F5/E1E2 binding interface and generated predictions for mutations to improve binding using a Rosetta-based approach and dTERMen, an informatics approach. The modeling was complicated by the fact that a high-resolution structure of F5 is not available and the H3 loop of F5 exceeds the length for which current modeling approaches can determine a unique structure. A subset of the predicted mutations from both methods were incorporated into a phage display library of scFvs. This library and a library generated by error-prone PCR were screened for binding affinity to the recombinant antigen. Results from the screens identified favorable mutations which were incorporated into 12 human-IgG1 variants. The best variant, containing eight mutations, improved KD from 0.63 nM (parental) to 0.01 nM. While this did not improve neutralization or therapeutic potency of F5 against IAB, it did increase cross-reactivity to other closely related VEEV epizootic and enzootic strains, demonstrating the potential of this method to rapidly adapt existing therapeutics to emerging viral strains.

affinity-maturation↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modeling the Resilience of Nuclear Power Plant for Unexpected Reactor Trip

Resilience can be defined as the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust to its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. Resilience engineering is a relatively new paradigm for safety management that focuses on how to cope with complexity under pressure or disturbance to achieve success. A resilient system combines inherent human abilities with engineered safety features and organizational features in a controlled and flexible manner both in expected and in unexpected situations. The concept of resilience has been suggested to complement conventional safety analyses. Conventional safety analysis methods such as PSA have several limitations: 1) they primarily focus on technical dimension, 2) the analysis are linear and sequential, 3) they are dominated by static models, 4) they do not take a systemic view into account, and 5) they focus primarily on why accidents happen and not how success is achieved. The concept of resilience provides a more integrated view for the safety analysis in safety-critical systems, e.g., nuclear power plants. The concept of resilience in the organization of NPPs has been highlighted since the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. An IAEA report addresses that a resilient organization is one that quickly realizes deviation from normal operations and has the ability to make even the toughest and least popular decisions and to manage the margins in which it can maneuver. While traditional strategy to safety in NPPs is to identify what could go or has gone wrong, the concept of resilience is focused on what the organization does well and what it does to maintain its successful operation and to capitalize on those processes in the event of an unexpected situation. This study attempts to model the resilience of NPP dynamically, based on the operating experiences in Korean NPPs. First, this study revised the characterization of NPP. Then, a survey on the literature was conducted to identify the influences between the elements in the model of resilience in NPPs. These works provide a qualitative model for the resilience in NPPs. Then, this study reviewed 168 licensee events reports submitted to the Korean regulatory body since 2004 and quantified the relation between the attributes in the model by performing a Pearson correlation analysis. Finally, a few simulations using the System Dynamics were conducted to discuss which factors are most influencing the resilience. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Nonlinear Slosh Damping Testing and Analysis for Launch Vehicle Propellant Tanks

Propellant tank slosh damping models for launch vehicle ascent analysis typically employ linear models for bare-wall damping, or assume a single, low-amplitude wave height for baffled configurations. A higher fidelity damping model would incorporate nonlinear effects to increase damping as slosh wave amplitude increases. This paper provides an overview of a technical assessment performed by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to evaluate lateral slosh damping as a function of lateral force (or wave) amplitude for multiple tank configurations. The increased fidelity of nonlinear slosh damping models, if leveraged, has the potential to reduce over-conservatism associated with the use of linear slosh damping models. This can provide design flexibility to enhance launch vehicle flight control performance, reduce baffle design requirements and/or increase robustness in targeted areas such as control-structure interaction during ascent.

Tannen S VanZwieten↗
DOE OSTI2016

Techno-Economic Basis for Coproduct Manufacturing To Enable Hydrocarbon Fuel Production from Lignocellulosic Biomass

Biorefinery process development relies on techno-economic analysis (TEA) to identify primary cost drivers, prioritize research directions, and mitigate technical risk for scale-up through development of detailed process designs. Here, we conduct TEA of a model 2000 dry metric ton-per-day lignocellulosic biorefinery that employs a two-step pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis to produce biomass-derived sugars, followed by biological lipid production, lipid recovery, and catalytic hydrotreating to produce renewable diesel blendstock (RDB). On the basis of projected near-term technical feasibility of these steps, we predict that RDB could be produced at a minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of USD $9.55/gasoline-gallon-equivalent (GGE), predicated on the need for improvements in the lipid productivity and yield beyond current benchmark performance. This cost is significant given the limitations in scale and high costs for aerobic cultivation of oleaginous microbes and subsequent lipid extraction/recovery. In light of this predicted cost, we developed an alternative pathway which demonstrates that RDB costs could be substantially reduced in the near term if upgradeable fractions of biomass, in this case hemicellulose-derived sugars, are diverted to coproducts of sufficient value and market size; here, we use succinic acid as an example coproduct. The coproduction model predicts an MFSP of USD $5.28/GGE when leaving conversion and yield parameters unchanged for the fuel production pathway, leading to a change in biorefinery RDB capacity from 24 to 15 MM GGE/year and 0.13 MM tons of succinic acid per year. Additional analysis demonstrates that beyond the near-term projections assumed in the models here, further reductions in the MFSP toward $2-3/GGE (which would be competitive with fossil-based hydrocarbon fuels) are possible with additional transformational improvements in the fuel and coproduct trains, especially in terms of carbon efficiency to both fuels and coproducts, recovery and purification of fuels and coproducts, and coproduct selection and price. Overall, this analysis documents potential economics for both a hydrocarbon fuel and bioproduct process pathway and highlights prioritized research directions beyond the current benchmark to enable hydrocarbon fuel production via an oleaginous microbial platform with simultaneous coproduct manufacturing from lignocellulosic biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

California Energy Systems for the 21st Century (CES-21) Program, CRADA TC02200 (Final Report)

The following report representsthe culmination of a five-year Cybersecurity Research and Development (R&D) program performed by California’s Investor-Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and funded by the IOUs’ electricity ratepayers as authorized by California Legislation and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). The cybersecurity R&D, which was intensely technical in nature, was broken into three major workstreams: 1. The development of a modeling & simulation platform, to explore the potential effects of various threat and response scenarios at grid scale; 2. The establishment of a physical testbed with separate substation instances from each of the IOUs, to evaluate threats and responses on actual substation equipment; 3. The development of a research package consisting of several capabilities to support the industry’s evolution towards automated threat response and other next-generation cybersecurity techniques Throughout the program, there was extensive collaboration between the program team and national laboratories, federal departments, academic institutions and industry organizations. Several of the tools developed through the program have been made available to the open source community, to enable faster adoption and continued development of important cybersecurity capabilities. While this program began to develop much of the foundation for automated threat response, much work remains to be done, and this report recommends a series of next steps. While the Executive Summary below has been simplified as much as possible, the very technical nature of the subject matter would make further reduction difficult without causing meaning to be lost. Due to the sensitive nature of the research, some topics are intentionally covered at a high level to protect the research and therefore the electric grid and customers of California and the Nation. For further detail, clarification or questions we suggest discussion with the program team.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dataset for Biorefinery-specific feedstock price variability, Part 1: Corn stover

This dataset was utilized in a report to highlight parameters that affect near-term sustainable supply of corn stover and forest resources at $56 and $74 per dry ton delivered. While the report focus is restricted to 2018, the modeling runs are available from 2016-2022. In the 2016 Billion-ton Report (BT16), two stover cases were presented. In this dataset, we vary technical levels of those assumptions to measure stover supply response and to evaluate the major determinants of stover supply. In each of these cases, the supply is modeled first at the farmgate at prices up to $80 per dry ton for five deterministic scenarios. Building on this dataset, a supplementary dataset of delivered supply was modeled for 800k dry ton per year capacity facilities in two facility siting approaches. Results were summarized across delivered supply curves for twelve scenarios. The resulting supply curves are highly elastic, resulting in a range of potential supplies across scenarios at specified prices. Interactive visualization of these data allows exploration into any specified nth plant supply sensitivity to key variables and spatial distribution of stover resources. The analysis is economic supply risk and doesn’t account for disruptions from competing demands, namely livestock feed and bedding markets. Scenario ending in _BC3080 is a reference scenario consistent with BT16 Basecase (BC1), but with corn stover price isolation. Scenario ending in _OHB080 includes high operational efficiency constraints for corn stover. Scenario ending in _OLB080 includes low operational efficiency constraints for corn stover. Scenario ending in _PLB080 includes low opportunity cost. Scenario ending in _PHB080 includes high opportunity cost. No Land Rental costs are applied to these scenarios. All scenarios were under an exogenous price simulation using POLYSYS (v2017).

Agricultural residues, biomass resources, 2018, bi↗